The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 09 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

Adding for .6 Unit: WYO @ USU Under 51

WYO QB Coffman out, back up doesn't pass nearly as well, more of a runner. Coffman really has some nice numbers this year, a big reason why WYO has been covering the past month. Utah State a slow paced run heavy team. The Aggies rate to have a second half lead where the scoring should really grind to a halt, like the WYO @ Boise game last week.

Adding for .6 Unit: VAN @ HOU Under 49

Houston has played one other defense on the level of Vanderbilt -- Louisville in week #2. Houston had it's worst offensive game of the season, which still ended up being okay by any other team's standards, and got the upset road win. Houston has had such an easy schedule in their past five games that I'm a little worried my numbers, in spite of having compensation by opponent built in, is over estimating the big win I project for Houston this week. The line has certainly come down, one of the few moves against me, and I highly doubt it's just because Houston's top RB was concussed last game and is "?". Houston has a couple of other good RB's who have been getting touches with near the same production as Farrow. Houston's defense is actually very average when compensated for the opponents they've played. VAN should have some success on the ground -- but that success means time off the clock that doesn't necessarily translate into a lot of scoring. VAN still won't be able to pass the ball very well. There's a strong chance Houston scores the least amount of points they've done this season, which isn't a bold prediction when their season low was the 34 they scored at Louisville, lol. The big jump in caliber of defense they've faced in quite a while could easily mean Houston's defense struggles for the first time this season. I profile the total on this game as an Under++, the strongest Under lean I have. My total for the game is actually 48.5, so this bet isn't made on line value, it's based on the profile and Houston's easy schedule. It also works as a bit of insurance on the Houston play which I'm now less keen on because of the market move down on it -- If VAN covers I think it's because they limit Houston's offense. If the game goes Over I think Houston covers.

 

[Kiln]

I'd be more apt to take the first half Over rather than the game Over as long as you can get lower than 28 when it opens.

I'll buy that. I got it at ov 27' at Heritage. Thanks yet again.

 

[Hotpizza]

crunch thx for the insights.

Few games I'd like your thoughts on, if you don't mind.

OKST/TX Tech and same game for O/U
Cincy vs UCF
GA/FL

I know some will be interested in the GA/FL game for certain.

Thx and keep "CRUNCHING 'EM"

 

[Incubus]

Cruncher, any thoughts on Western Kentucky -24 over Old Dominion? :think2:

I think WKU QB Doughty will want pad his stats in this game for NFL scouts.

WKU has the 6th rated overall offense, while OD has the 81st rated overall defense.

WKU has the 3rd rated passing offense, while OD has the 56th rated pass defense.

I just can't see the Monarchs keeping up with the Hilltoppers in this one.

Possible score of 49-17? Maybe worse? Old Dominion doesn't impress me at all.
If you have the time, can you weigh in on this game? Thanks in advance. :toast:

 

[mudman]

Crunch;

Thanx for all of your hard work, myself and many around here it is really appreciated. By the way I am on that UNC pick also.

 

[United]

Good luck Crunch

 

[thecruncher]

crunch thx for the insights.

Few games I'd like your thoughts on, if you don't mind.

OKST/TX Tech and same game for O/U
Cincy vs UCF
GA/FL

I know some will be interested in the GA/FL game for certain.

Thx and keep "CRUNCHING 'EM"

Texas Tech has a terrible run defense, but OKST has a below average run game. Both teams actually have about the same ranked pass defense, but OKST has the higher rated pass offense. This shapes up like TTU's usual game game against a superior opponent where they have to score bunches to keep up. They should be able to mostly. With a total this high (and I think it's a couple points too high, but TTU is an Over bet or nothing, barring a really bad line, lol) it's even harder to say who's going to cover the small spread. I like OKST to win by 3.5, so it's a pass all the way around for me.

Cincy should score as long as they're interested in scoring, which will probably be sometime 5+ minutes into the 4th quarter. UCF's offense has been dreadful, of course, especially their running game. That is good news for Cincy, who actually has a really weak run defense. Every team Cincy has played has run for a higher ypc average than they usually do for the season. We're talking bottom 5 bad rush defense for Cincy. UCF really avoided the run early in the year, but they're starting to try and sort that mess out now. They actually haven't been horrible running the last three games, they've just faced some pretty tough run defenses this past month (except for UConn). I'd expect them to keep moving toward a more balanced offense, generating some success on the ground. Still, that success shouldn't add up to more than 13 or 14 points, but this might be the game their offense finally surprises one for near a full game. UCF QB Holman had his first decent game since coming back from injury a few games ago. Cincy has a good pass defense, though. I loved Cincy when I got them at -20.5 at the opener, but not so much now at -27.5. I still project them to cover that, but if anything, I can see some regression toward the mean for both teams, making the line about right. I'd expect Cincy to run the ball a lot this game, too. The total is pretty close to right on by my numbers, too. Another game I wouldn't play at current numbers.

I lean UGA to cover and win by 1, but their inconsistent pass offense and defense could easily do them in. I'd have to have UGA +4 before I played them, and I seriously doubt we'll ever see that number, it's going to keep hovering between a pick and 3.

 

[thecruncher]

Cruncher, any thoughts on Western Kentucky -24 over Old Dominion? :think2:

I think WKU QB Doughty will want pad his stats in this game for NFL scouts.

WKU has the 6th rated overall offense, while OD has the 81st rated overall defense.

WKU has the 3rd rated passing offense, while OD has the 56th rated pass defense.

I just can't see the Monarchs keeping up with the Hilltoppers in this one.

Possible score of 49-17? Maybe worse? Old Dominion doesn't impress me at all.
If you have the time, can you weigh in on this game? Thanks in advance. :toast:

ODU's run game has improved over the last few games, with a breakout game against FIU last week, going for a 9.0 ypc average with some huge runs. Unfortunately for my only top play that lost, ODU +14.5, they squandered way too many scoring opportunities. WKU does not have a good run defense, and now they go on the road for a second straight week after getting hammered on by LSU last week. ODU could have another very good game running the ball. I'd be very cautious backing WKU in this game, I only like them to win by about 20. WKU doesn't have a good enough run game to add scores in the 4th quarter when they're trying to chew clock with a big lead. The backdoor will be open if in fact, ODU isn't covering through out the course of the entire game. With WKU I always like the 1st half Over, and this one's no exception, because yes, their passing game should be good for 4+ scores on their own in the first half. My projection is about 45-24.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 3 Units (to set up some buy back):

Duke -8 vs Miami (-110 5D)

Kaaya is doubtful for Miami, and he's the only thing that makes their offense go. His backup, Rosier, was a disaster when he had to come in the game last week. Yes, it was against my #1 pass defense, but still. He shouldn't be as bad this week, but it will be a road game, and Duke still has a good pass defense.

Beyond that, there are huge mismatches in the running games for these two teams. Miami's rush offense has been awful, ranked #114, and are now up against my #8 best rush defense. Meanwhile, Duke has a somewhat above average rush defense at 51st, while Miami has been a complete disaster against the run this year, ranking 120th.

There is huge line value here, in some part because the bookmakers don't seem willing to believe that people will understand what a horrible match up this is for Miami in this game, especially with an inexperienced back up quarterback. Miami's leading receiver is "?" this game, as well. Duke won't be able to pass the ball very well, either, but they'll at least get the benefit of the Miami defense having to cheat to stop the run, while Duke's defense will have no such worry.

 

[Hotpizza]

Thank You for your thoughts and write ups on the games in question. Much appreciated.

 

[Devo2487]

Just a lil heads up crunch! I live here in Kentucky and will most likely be at the uk/tenn game! It has rained fairly steady here the last 2 days and there is a 60% chance on Saturday evening! I lean to the over in that game myself but just throwing out there it could get a little sloppy on the field!

 

[TUG]

SC will you have your weekly cheatsheet out today? Thanks for your hard work.

Tug

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, Devo, I'll keep an eye on that and maybe middle out of it.

Tug, probably in a few hours still. I'm working on a big Top 25 article.

 

[TUG]

Thx, Devo, I'll keep an eye on that and maybe middle out of it.

Tug, probably in a few hours still. I'm working on a big Top 25 article.

Thx SC....appreciate it

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/4 unit: North Texas ML +250

Yes, I project them to beat San Antonio.

 

[thecruncher]

My Big Top 25 Breakdown: http://bit.ly/thesportscruncher

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for .6 unit: PITT team total Under 29 (-110 5D)

I have one unit on the Over 52. My number is about 59 with no lean on the Over or Under profile, so going to try to middle for half w. .5 unit Under 59.5 (-108 5D)

 

[thecruncher]

This week's College Football Market Cheat Sheet

The Match Up Grids for today's games are on Twitter.

 

[BlueRiot]

Hey crunch appreciate all your work. Any insight on the unc game tonightj? thanks in advance

 

[thecruncher]

A final grading of the week 8 Cheat Sheet and results:

The usual amount of beating closing line value, with a solid +1.37 point median average better on totals. A solid 4.5% average gain on totals played made. It was hurt a little bit by weather hammering the Baylor total down. It, of course, ended up losing by one touchdown after Baylor went into the tank with the weather.

Frustrating past two weeks down 5+ units each week, in spite of the usual market gains etc. I will at least admit that I had a few bad plays last week, but 3 or so out of a bunch ain't bad, lol. Just overall not lucky, which is unfortunate as it coincided with the two weeks where I bumped up most of my plays 20% in size to reflect the bankroll growth. I bet extra units on my top 4 plays last week to set up some middle action. I middled back on 3, as planned, and ended up clearing both the original play and middle, so the middle portions were wasted. I forgot to middle back one of the four, Old Dominion, and of course! they were the one team that didn't cover the original +14.5 spread in spite of out gaining FIU in yards. So yeah, hit 3 of my top 4 and was still down on the week. Annoying. With as much volume as I play, all it takes is an accumulation of luck one way or the other to see those units rise and fall each week. My top 3 weeks have been around +9, +9 and +5, with my losing weeks -6, -5 and -5. Still up 18.5 average size bets, but clearly bummed after last Saturday after running so good for 5 weeks, lol. That being said, I didn't love the card the past two weeks -- you know, some weeks you feel more confident in your card that others. I backed a lot of garbage teams versus other garbage teams, and pretty much every single f***ing one of them shit the bed in one fashion or another. Garbage on garbage should be a coin flip, goddamnit, lol. Had two weekday action plays that were terrible losers. I can't win action plays, hardly ever, lol. The one positive from last week was my first half plays. I've been lucky and good at first half plays this year. I don't know if I've lost any, I think I'm approaching 10 for 10, lol.