The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 04 Lines & Market Plays

[Incubus]

Adding for 1 Unit: SYR +24 vs LSU (-105)

This line has already moved up from 23 to 24, but I'm willing to go against that little movement. SYR is getting pretty thin at QB, but LSU hasn't shown anything in the passing game yet. Fournette is a super beast, it's true, but SYR's run defense has been pretty good this year, albeit against far inferior run offenses. I don't bank on motivation generally, but this can't be a spot where LSU is particularly motivated.

I'm on the opposite side of you on this play. I believe LSU will win cover the 24. I'm predicting the final score will be 49-17 or thereabouts.

Yes, Syracuse run defense has been "pretty good" this year. Who have they played? Rhode Island, Wake Forrest, Central Michigan. You've admitted these are far inferior rush offense. For sure. Syracuse hasn't seen an offensive line like LSU's or an absolute freak like RB Leonard Fournette. The guy is a legitimate Heisman Torphy candidate, and I won't be surprised to see him get 150+ yards and 3 TDs. LSU will pound the ball and ultimately wear down the Orangemen defensive front. That's when the big runs happen. Also, LSU is deep at RB, and the reserves will be coming in late in the game and pound away. Fresh legs. I anticipate LSU to run, run, run. And run some more.

Regarding Syracuse's offense, I guess you can say they're getting a "little thin" at QB. They're forced to start a 3rd stringer - "walk on" QB Zach Mahoney. Doubt he'll shine versus the Tiger D. They're viscous.

Motivation? Les Miles knows these are the kind of games his team can't overlook. They need to win comfortably for style points for the BCS. These players are in the hunt for a national title. LSU only has Eastern Michigan coming up at home on deck. No "look ahead" factor here.

In any event, I actually think the first half will be competitive and then LSU will shift gears in the second half to eclipse the 24 spread.
Wish you the best, and one of us will be happy at the end of this particular game. :toast:

 

[thecruncher]

Believe me, Incu, I don't like being on Syracuse at all in this one but I'm going to ride it out, lol. Fournette and company can make any defense look bad against the run from what I've seen. Oh well, fingers crossed, I've got a big card as usual anyway, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Central Michigan Team Total Over 14

Nothing much else I love on team totals, but will probably play some halftimes on the later games today.

 

[thecruncher]

Most of the lines hit in the way my lines expected this morning, making me feel a little better about my card today. Good luck today everyone!

 

[thecruncher]

Well, I was hoping the OHIO@MINN total would drop below 47 after I bought the extra Under unit at 48, but at least with reduced juice at 5D I can buy back at almost no juice with 1 Unit Over 47 (-102). To be clear, I like the Under in this one, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Central Michigan outgains Michigan State and only scores 10 points. Grr.

 

[thecruncher]

The total, not surprisingly, never got up to 55 on this one, but I'll take another 1/2 unit at Under 54 reduced juice on the UNT @ IOWA Under.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: TEX +1.5 2nd half vs OKST

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: UNT @ Iowa Under 24 2nd half. Sigh.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: Penn State -6.5 2nd half (-120) vs SDSU

Going to press the 1 Unit game Penn State -12 bet with this. PSU dominating more than the score even indicates, starts the 2nd half with the ball.

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: ECU +7 (EV) 2nd half vs. VT

Both teams running about the same, ECU better passing game.

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: M-OH @ WKU Under 28 2nd half

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: Florida ML 2nd half vs Tennessee (-118)

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: ARK vs TA&M Under 29 2nd half (+110)

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 Unit: AKR +5 2nd half @ ULL

 

[thecruncher]

Let's see if we can turn some of those yards into points this half, Auburn.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: MSST @ AUB Over 27 2nd half

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: ARIZ ML 2nd half (-115)

Got 25 points to work with my UCLA play, seems like a good spot for a middle, lol. ARIZ running the ball well, hopefully they don't give up on that.

 

[thecruncher]

Potential 2.5 unit swing on that TA&M missed field goal. Jesus. Not had the best of luck at the end of games today in spite of crushing it, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: FRES @ SJSU Under 24.5 2nd half

 

[thecruncher]

Adding to win 1/2 Unit: ASU ML 2nd half vs USC (-145)

Instant replay of the UCLA @ ARIZ game with huge middle to work with and actual value on ASU (so yeah, it's not really a middle. I just like ASU in the 2nd half starting with the ball and running it better than USC, just like the other Arizona game).