CIN QB Kiel is cleared to play, but if he plays it will have been with lite practice on a short week. Cincinnati can't afford to give away any conference games, so I'd lean toward him playing. If he doesn't, I still think the CIN play is okay, and the Over just a wash.
Adding for 1/2 unit:
CIN +10 (-105 5D) @ MEM
CIN @ MEM Over 66.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 1/2 unit:
CIN +10 (-105 5D) @ MEM
CIN @ MEM Over 66.5 (-105 5D)
Coming off an SEC game, now a road non-conference game. Laying 24.5 with a total of 46.5, its hard to back a favorite laying this many with a total that low. Similar to the UCONN game last week, getting 3+ TDS with a total in the Low 40's. Also a surface change for LSU, a grass team playing on turf.
68% on LSU, not surprising.
No way I would ever play LSU in this situation.
Fading favorites in a Conf game on short rest isn't a bad idea at all. Worked last week with Ville.
Respect the work you put in Cruncher, good luck with your action.
Thx Biz, I do indeed put in the work.
Adding for 1 Unit: Indiana -3 @ Wake Forest (-115 BOL - how gracious are they to let me get onto 3 for just 10 cents?)
Wake hasn't faced a truly competent balanced offense yet this year -- Indiana's offense is big step up for them. Further hurting Wake's chances are the loss of QB Wolford for this game. Backup Hinton mostly struggled against a poor Army secondary. Wake up and smell the coffee, I don't think the Forest covers for a 3rd straight week.
Adding for 1 Unit: Indiana -3 @ Wake Forest (-115 BOL - how gracious are they to let me get onto 3 for just 10 cents?)
Wake hasn't faced a truly competent balanced offense yet this year -- Indiana's offense is big step up for them. Further hurting Wake's chances are the loss of QB Wolford for this game. Backup Hinton mostly struggled against a poor Army secondary. Wake up and smell the coffee, I don't think the Forest covers for a 3rd straight week.
They had enough D. to beat Western Kentucky, how much more do you need?
Indy -- man, I really hope those directional Michigan schools (Western, Central, etc...) play up to their abilities this week, because I think the B1G Big Boys are not playing up to their potential right now.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: USC @ ASU Over 62
The totals on the SoCal vs. Arizona schools have been moving in the wrong direction, in my opinion. USC is a dead Over team this year, gaining and giving up yards a plenty. UCLA is trending in the other direction. After a good opening game for QB Rosen, he's cooled off considerably and the Bruins have had to rely on their running game. UCLA's defense is much, better, too. They suffered another blow losing LB Jack, but get CB Adams back this week. Arizona is more of an Over team than Arizona State, it is true, and that is probably what is driving the action right now -- but is the difference enough to make the total in the UCLA@ARI game 4 points higher? I don't think so. All 4 of these teams play at a pretty fast pace, and I wouldn't be inclined to play the Under in any match up of these teams. Now that there's a decent # available on one of the Overs, I'm going to bite. I loved the Over in the STAN@USC game last week...and pretty much only, me, lol. No service plays on the Over and the number crept down a bit during the week. Well, it's deja vu all over again this week, as far as I'm concerned.
Thx, mud, gl to you too.
The regular sports feeds for weather for the East coast games don't make it sound nearly as bad as this:http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...ooding/ar-AAeGNSU?li=AAa0dzB&ocid=mailsignout
So it looks like it's going to be worse than anticipated in some area. Most of those totals have dropped already, and even had some line value to begin with -- speaking of the Virginia, East Carolina and Duke games. Probably why the Duke spread is coming down as well. The Virginia game being Friday night is still going to catch some rain and wind, it looks like.
Even though I've lost several points of value on these two totals from earlier lines, I'm still going to add...
1/2 Unit Each:
BSU @ UVA Under 49
GT @ Duke Under 56
UVA +2.5 vs BSU
I don't show any real line value on Virginia, but if the weather gets ugly I like taking the home team and fading a first time starting QB for Boise.
The regular sports feeds for weather for the East coast games don't make it sound nearly as bad as this:http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...ooding/ar-AAeGNSU?li=AAa0dzB&ocid=mailsignout
So it looks like it's going to be worse than anticipated in some area. Most of those totals have dropped already, and even had some line value to begin with -- speaking of the Virginia, East Carolina and Duke games. Probably why the Duke spread is coming down as well. The Virginia game being Friday night is still going to catch some rain and wind, it looks like.
Even though I've lost several points of value on these two totals from earlier lines, I'm still going to add...
1/2 Unit Each:
BSU @ UVA Under 49
GT @ Duke Under 56
UVA +2.5 vs BSU
I don't show any real line value on Virginia, but if the weather gets ugly I like taking the home team and fading a first time starting QB for Boise.
Good first half for Bearcats & Over. If they can get points on the opening drive in the second half I really like their chances at not just covering the +10, but outright winning. Hayden Moore much more comfortable this week.
Adding for 1 Unit: Stanford @ Oregon State Over 44.5
Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is "?" with an ankle right now, but from what I've read he's got a good chance of playing, as it's his non-plant foot that's sprained. Hogan at 80% is better than their inexperienced options at backup. The Stanford offense took a game and half to warm up this year, and they're now looking like the seasoned offense they were supposed to be. At the same time, their younger defense probably won't achieve the high rankings that that unit has earned in the past. ORST QB Collins is fast and should make some plays with his feet, if not his arm, so much.
If Hogan plays I like a Stanford 31-20 win. If he doesn't play my total is almost dead on the 44.5, which means I may try to juice it out if I can get it at the same number. At the same time I'll add a play on Oregon State at anything +12 or better, and make it a full unit if a number higher than +14 is still available.
Adding for 1 Unit: Stanford @ Oregon State Over 44.5
Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is "?" with an ankle right now, but from what I've read he's got a good chance of playing, as it's his non-plant foot that's sprained. Hogan at 80% is better than their inexperienced options at backup. The Stanford offense took a game and half to warm up this year, and they're now looking like the seasoned offense they were supposed to be. At the same time, their younger defense probably won't achieve the high rankings that that unit has earned in the past. ORST QB Collins is fast and should make some plays with his feet, if not his arm, so much.
If Hogan plays I like a Stanford 31-20 win. If he doesn't play my total is almost dead on the 44.5, which means I may try to juice it out if I can get it at the same number. At the same time I'll add a play on Oregon State at anything +12 or better, and make it a full unit if a number higher than +14 is still available.
Rutgers has had nothing but turmoil. Players suspended or dropped, coaches getting suspended. Shocked the line has gone up. I have a system play on Rutgers, but having a hard time pulling the trigger.
Yeah, Rutgers program has been a dumpster fire. They only scored 3 on Penn State last week, but actually passed the ball decently -- better than expected. That's trouble for the Kansas defense. I'm just hoping Kansas' new offense can keep it within range versus a declining Rutger's defense.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UCLA -3 (+105 5D) @ ARIZ
Not a ton of line value here, imo, but being able to make it a + juice wager makes it a plus EV proposal, by my numbers. UCLA QB Rosen hasn't been good the last couple of weeks, but he's got that great run game he can rely on. UCLA's defense is still far better than Arizona's, even with early injury losses.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: UCLA -3 (+105 5D) @ ARIZ
Not a ton of line value here, imo, but being able to make it a + juice wager makes it a plus EV proposal, by my numbers. UCLA QB Rosen hasn't been good the last couple of weeks, but he's got that great run game he can rely on. UCLA's defense is still far better than Arizona's, even with early injury losses.
