Thx, Vark!
Adding for 1/2 Unit Each: EMU +14 @ Wyoming & Over 52
EMU was outplaying Old Dominion as a home dog last week until QB Reginald Bell III took a shot to the chops and was knocked from the game. His replacement couldn't close with the lead and EMU's woes continued into a new season. QB Bell is still listed as "?". I'm comfortable with the plays if he ends up missing, and think them even more valuable if he plays (and plays up to his abilities). The Old Dominion team of last year was definitely an over type team. Their passing game with a new QB was a definite step down from last year's production against EMU, but the running game made up for it. I think the lesson there is that EMU's defense is as soft as a herd (pack, flock, kill?) of emus up front, but that they might have some players in the secondary.
Wyoming didn't look very strong up front in their opening loss to FCS North Dakota last week. They allowed ND's top rusher to go 24 for 148 with a long of 52. EMU's top rusher went 19 for 117 with a long of 32 last week. On the flip side, Wyoming was mostly passing the ball trailing, as their run game never got off the ground at any point, going just 19 for 29 yards (with 3 sacks of their QB for 17 yards hurting those numbers). That's bad, that's getting dominated up front by an FCS school. Granted, ND did have the 2nd best FCS run defense last year, but they were just 41st overall in total defense. In the passing game, WYO completed just a hair over 50% of it's passes, and the yards per pass average would be pretty anemic if not for a 92 yard score which brought them up to near average. Wyoming's offense was dictated to by an FCS school, I can't help but keep bringing that up, lol.
For this game, I'd imagine Wyoming will come out angry at home after a week of abuse for their last game. The run game will find it much easier to get going which means new QB Coffman shouldn't be under constant pressure again. EMU, with or without QB Bell, should just enough success on the ground to also take some pressure off their QB. Wyoming's run defense was downright horrible in the final 3/4 of the season last year, and is not off to a promising start. If Bell plays I like EMU to keep it really close, and without him I think they still cover. Wyoming, with a game under it's belt versus a decent defense, will hopefully regain some of the form that saw them exploit the weaker defenses they played last year. With two near bottom ten defenses I like this one to go Over a lower than average total, but that comes with a buyer beware warning that the market really, really thinks Bell is EMU's only solution at offense, as the early $ came in strong on both WYO and the Under in spite of WYO's performance last week.
Wyoming has become one of the worst recruiting schools in the FBS (have you been to mid-eastern Wyoming? Not a shocker, lol). On last year's stats alone Wyoming doesn't have much of an advantage in this game, and I don't think the first week's games show anything to shake those numbers up too much. I'm hoping Saturday in Laramie doesn't turn into Hell without Bell.
