The lines take longer than normal to get ready these first few weeks, because I look at every game played against an FCS opponent and make manual adjustments I feel appropriate given the performance in the game. I do this because I only log box scores of games played between FBS teams. I also have made some manual adjustments if a team was really good or bad at something in week #1.
The EMU line has gone down because of an injury to QB Bell, whose status is "?" still. The Utah line has gone up because the USU offense was pathetic against FCS Southern Utah. The Missouri line has come down because RB Hansbrough will miss this game again, and they didn't run well without him last week.
The EMU line has gone down because of an injury to QB Bell, whose status is "?" still. The Utah line has gone up because the USU offense was pathetic against FCS Southern Utah. The Missouri line has come down because RB Hansbrough will miss this game again, and they didn't run well without him last week.
Your posts are like awesome! When I saw your chart I absolutely came unglued. I can't imagine the knowledge you possess and time you put into handicapping the college game. I have never followed you but I will check you out everyday. Thank you so much for all your very time consuming work and all your knowledge and of course, thanks so much for sharing! I hope you have a terrific week of wagering!
A lot, usually. Didn't you try to pick a fight over this last year? Careful, I'll get you banned, lol.
Here are my week #2 lines
I have a question regarding your chart. In the myspread portion of the chat, it appears in the first so many games that the difference is between the opening line and the current line until you get to TLSA/UNM then the difference is between the opening line and your line. The rest of the chart seems to bounce between the two.
So what is the actual difference you are looking at? Opening to current or opening to your line. It has to be one or the other. It is the same for the totals part of it as well.
Not busting chops just looking for some clarification because the numbers don't jive at least to me.
Thanks and Good Luck!
Hi Hotpizza, I think I understand where the confusion lies. What I list as "Market Correction Vs. My Line" is a score, not a number that always indicates how fully a line has moved. This number is capped by how close to the original opening line my line is. A number in this column has max negative score of the difference between my line and the opening line, and a max positive score works the same (once the line reaches my line the score is capped). On the chart the first game where the cap comes into play is the Tulsa-UNM game. In that game my line for UNM is 0.9 points higher than the opening, so that is the cap of the negative score I can take there. On the Florida game you can see a positive score capped at 4.6, the difference between the opener and my number. This can definitely be confusing without an explanation, I should probably provide one each time. Thanks for your interest!
So by playing so many games at 1/2 or 1 unit each, how do you fare each season? I have come to realize that the more games you wager on, the better your chances of hitting around 50% (give or take 3%). How did you do last season? Just curious because you and I play exactly opposite of each other. You prefer lots of plays for smaller wagers and I prefer fewer plays for larger wagers. I am just checking to see if I should make a correction in the number of games that I wager or not.
In the NFL my system of playing everything with value led to big winnings over the course of 10 seasons. I had one season where with an average bet size of just less than 1 unit I won over 100 units. In my 3 seasons of college capping I'm near even, and probably down a little. In college it's not just picking off bad lines early, which is my strength (and which worked very well in NFL), but also knowing what the right plays are when it's all said and done. That's what I'm working toward. The professional style of sports betting is definitely playing as many games as you feel give you positive expected value on your wager, for a small percentage of your bankroll, which usually ends up being quite a few games each week.
I bought the 1/2 units on UTSA & MSST early anticipating the line moves, which I got, and now I'm going to buy back and go for the middle, because my lines actually show the value on their opponents at current prices. If you got those early numbers on these two will probably do fine to just sit on them, because KSU might be more regressed offensively and UTSA more progressed offensively than pre-season projections have them, and MSST might be more regressed than my pre-season projections had them. The Bulldogs certainly didn't look that sharp against USM last week. So taking KSU -17 and MSST +4.5 for a 1/2 unit each. I know it's early in the season, but that LSU @ MSST game could be really telling for both squads (especially MSST).
Maybe a "bad" line in the NFL is vastly different than a "bad" line in NCAAFB? Maybe it's only a little different, but different nonetheless. What makes me curious though, is what makes you think the linesmaker creates a "bad" line? The last part of your sentence is rather obvious...."knowing what the right plays are when it's all said and done."
Good luck with whatever it is you're trying to do.
A bad line is simply one where they're going to take heavily lopsided action on one side by sharps and services. Whether the original line ends up being right or wrong, it's still bad for a book to have too much action on one side, as they'd prefer even action on a number that hasn't moved guaranteeing them the profit from the vig. And when the market disagrees strongly with an opening number the market is right more often than wrong, to boot.
As far as NFL vs NCAA I think it comes down to less variance over all in the outcomes of the games in the NFL. The NFL is lower scoring (less variance) and has more parity (less variance). I bet much thinner line discrepancies in the NFL because you could trust the outcomes more. You'll never see an NFL line move as wildly as some do in CFB
Like many others, you assume the sportsbook is in the business of being a market broker, i.e, trying to even out the action and simply collecting the vig. I believe a book's intention is much different. I believe the book is in the business of gambling because that is what sportsbetting is. They know their clientele. They know full well who they can deceive and why they can and when the opportunity presents itself, they know how to take advantage. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this is the world of eleven to ten. It's smoke and mirrors, deception and chicanery at its finest. The whole devilish operation is polished, clear coated and buffed to a sparkling shine. Granted, there's math involved, but it's not what you learned in school. What do you know about Monte Carlo and Las Vegas algorithms? How sharp is your Boolean algebra? "What you see is not what it appears to be." Don't freak, this is just based on thirty some years of observation. Good luck.
