BDQH, When are you going to start showing where you wager at and your plays for any game at all. Quit jumping into other people's threads and asking stupid questions. If you cant post a positive post either liking or sharing valuable input into a game keep the bashing to yourself and let Cruncher do his thing. Believe it or not, Cruncher is great at capping CFB. Sorry Cruncher, but this person does his in a lot of threads.
I project both teams to be below average running the ball, and APP below average passing. Clemson I project to be just average passing the ball. APP hit a hot streak in the Sun Belt last year, but they're still nowhere near a P5 level of team like Clemson. You're right, APP does return almost everybody, which will help on the season, but how much against Clemson? They like to run, which uses clock. The Clemson profile against weaker teams is to build a big first half lead and then get conservative in the 2nd half, running the ball, which they don't do well. Remember that game against Georgia State last year? Granted, it was Stoudt and not Watson in at QB, but Clemson still couldn't add to their lead at all in the 2nd half running the ball against one of the worst run defenses in FBS.
I am downgrading this play to a 1/2 unit, "regular for now" play, though.
Thanks, Uni.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Tulsa @ New Mexico Over 69.5
Tulsa played one of the fastest games in the history of football last Saturday, I believe, averaging a mere 16.8 seconds per play. That is so insanely fast. Any time a team even breaks 20 seconds per play that's really fast. On top of that, they averaged over 20 yards per completion! (and 12+ yards per pass). They weren't just passing, either, they ran it 51 times versus 34 passes, which adds to the astonishment even more. Defensively, Tulsa they let FAU run for 300 yards. Last year FAU had my 95th ranked run offense, New Mexico 21st (and that's heavily rescored -- on pure stats they're top 10). You think New Mexico's gonna' be able to run it next week? Sure, New Mexico is a slow plays per second team, but with as many big run plays and first downs as they'll be getting, the clock will be stopping a fair enough amount of time. New Mexico held Miss. Valley Delta to almost no offense last week. That's nice, but they are a terrible team.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Tulsa @ New Mexico Over 69.5
Tulsa played one of the fastest games in the history of football last Saturday, I believe, averaging a mere 16.8 seconds per play. That is so insanely fast. Any time a team even breaks 20 seconds per play that's really fast. On top of that, they averaged over 20 yards per completion! (and 12+ yards per pass). They weren't just passing, either, they ran it 51 times versus 34 passes, which adds to the astonishment even more. Defensively, Tulsa they let FAU run for 300 yards. Last year FAU had my 95th ranked run offense, New Mexico 21st (and that's heavily rescored -- on pure stats they're top 10). You think New Mexico's gonna' be able to run it next week? Sure, New Mexico is a slow plays per second team, but with as many big run plays and first downs as they'll be getting, the clock will be stopping a fair enough amount of time. New Mexico held Miss. Valley Delta to almost no offense last week. That's nice, but they are a terrible team.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: MINN @ CSU Over 54
The Gophers played a full 7 seconds faster per play in the season opener against TCU than their average tpp of last year. With no new coaches I'm not sure where that came from, I only hope it continues for at least this game, lol. Even though I project CSU to have more negative regression in the passing game than any other team in FBS this year I'm still showing a ton of value on the Over when it's all crunched. CSU did have a good game offensively against their week #1 cupcake, and also played at a fast pace.
The Gophers played a full 7 seconds faster per play in the season opener against TCU than their average tpp of last year. With no new coaches I'm not sure where that came from, I only hope it continues for at least this game, lol. Even though I project CSU to have more negative regression in the passing game than any other team in FBS this year I'm still showing a ton of value on the Over when it's all crunched. CSU did have a good game offensively against their week #1 cupcake, and also played at a fast pace.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Rutgers - 2 vs Washington State
WSU of course lost to Portland State last week. Their run game is still pretty weak and QB Falk is no threat to run. Their passing game was below average versus an average FCS defense.
The Cougar's run defense let Portland State run at a pretty good clip, which is all Portland State really does. Rutgers, on the other hand, ran roughshod over Norfolk State, who had the second best defense in the FCS last year. Norfolk State was able to pass it some against Rutgers, but they ended up with negative 3 rushing yards. After looking more closely at last week's games with these two I'm not quite as keen on the Under, though it has picked up a point of line value, and is worth riding out if you've made the play. I am pretty keen on Rutgers in this spot, though. WSU after a depressing week makes the dreaded cross country trip to play a team with which they have no history, and their passing game looks to definitely be below last year's level, and Falk got dinged up in the game to boot. I don't see any angles that favor WSU at all here. Plus the PAC12 as I've been saying since last year is over rated - hah! lol
WSU of course lost to Portland State last week. Their run game is still pretty weak and QB Falk is no threat to run. Their passing game was below average versus an average FCS defense.
The Cougar's run defense let Portland State run at a pretty good clip, which is all Portland State really does. Rutgers, on the other hand, ran roughshod over Norfolk State, who had the second best defense in the FCS last year. Norfolk State was able to pass it some against Rutgers, but they ended up with negative 3 rushing yards. After looking more closely at last week's games with these two I'm not quite as keen on the Under, though it has picked up a point of line value, and is worth riding out if you've made the play. I am pretty keen on Rutgers in this spot, though. WSU after a depressing week makes the dreaded cross country trip to play a team with which they have no history, and their passing game looks to definitely be below last year's level, and Falk got dinged up in the game to boot. I don't see any angles that favor WSU at all here. Plus the PAC12 as I've been saying since last year is over rated - hah! lol
Thx, Indy.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Marshall -3 @ Ohio (-115)
Looking at Marshall's first game their offensive results ended up landing pretty close to the negative regression I projected for them. The running regression was right on, though the passing game was not quite as good. But then again, being Purdue it was one of the best pass defenses they'll face on the schedule this year, so the result is not that far out of expectation at all. What does this mean? It means I can trust my stats on them offensively this game. The defensive regression for Marshall + Purdue's offensive projected progress came out pretty spot on, as well. Just because Marshall had two pick 6s doesn't mean they didn't deserve to win. Purdue did have 57 more total yards in the game, but that's because they ran 30 more plays on offense than Marshall did. Marshall had a higher ypp and ypc average, and the difference was especially advantageous in the rushing yards per carry. When it's all said and done, the team with both the higher ypp and ypc is going to get the win a majority of the time.
As for Ohio, I projected a fairly easy win over Idaho, so no surprise there.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Iowa -3.5 @ Iowa State
Iowa had an okay game eating their week #1 cupcake, Illinois State. Iowa State played a tougher, chewier cupcake in Northern Iowa (a team that threatens to choke FBS schools to death on occasion, such is it's toughness). ISU won 31-7, but a quick look at the box score shows that the two teams were almost identical in total yardage. ISU was much better in the passing game, while Northern Iowa did better in the running game. Color me not that impressed, I'll take the Hawkeyes, in spite of the Cyclones history of playing them tougher than they should.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Marshall -3 @ Ohio (-115)
Looking at Marshall's first game their offensive results ended up landing pretty close to the negative regression I projected for them. The running regression was right on, though the passing game was not quite as good. But then again, being Purdue it was one of the best pass defenses they'll face on the schedule this year, so the result is not that far out of expectation at all. What does this mean? It means I can trust my stats on them offensively this game. The defensive regression for Marshall + Purdue's offensive projected progress came out pretty spot on, as well. Just because Marshall had two pick 6s doesn't mean they didn't deserve to win. Purdue did have 57 more total yards in the game, but that's because they ran 30 more plays on offense than Marshall did. Marshall had a higher ypp and ypc average, and the difference was especially advantageous in the rushing yards per carry. When it's all said and done, the team with both the higher ypp and ypc is going to get the win a majority of the time.
As for Ohio, I projected a fairly easy win over Idaho, so no surprise there.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Iowa -3.5 @ Iowa State
Iowa had an okay game eating their week #1 cupcake, Illinois State. Iowa State played a tougher, chewier cupcake in Northern Iowa (a team that threatens to choke FBS schools to death on occasion, such is it's toughness). ISU won 31-7, but a quick look at the box score shows that the two teams were almost identical in total yardage. ISU was much better in the passing game, while Northern Iowa did better in the running game. Color me not that impressed, I'll take the Hawkeyes, in spite of the Cyclones history of playing them tougher than they should.
