Here’s the “expert” analysis
My Analysis
Clear cut right side of this game is the home team.
As the Utah State Aggies headed to San Jose State on Wednesday night riding a 3-game winning streak, they felt compelled to have a players only meeting.
In a nutshell, they just didn't feel they were playing up to their capabilities.
Yes, the win at home over San Diego State was solid 68-63, covering as a 3-point favorite but their last 2 games before San Jose State were garbage.
Laying 10 1/2 at Fresno they had to go to OT to get the 77-73 win and then back home laying 17 against Air Force, they were lethargic in the 72-60 non covering win.
Well, whatever was said in that meeting worked as they hammered the Spartans 90-70, easily covering the 10 1/2.
Now back home for the biggest game of their season and for many of these kids, their lives.
A win over New Mexico and they win the Mountain West Conference regular season title for the first time in school history.
So I think we all can agree just how big this game is for the home team, a team that is 13-1 in front of the home folks this year with the only loss February 6th to Nevada.
It was a bad spot for the Aggies as they were coming off a road loss to San Diego State and just came out flat.
Since that loss they have gone 6-1 SU with the only loss at Colorado State.
As for New Mexico, they have been up and down as of late.
On January 28th after destroying Nevada at home 89-55, they were sitting on top of the world at 18-3 and ranked in the top 25.
They went 2-3 over their next 5 with home losses to Boise State and UNLV and a road loss to San Diego State.
They rallied for a big home win over Colorado State 68-66 before the 89-79 road loss to Boise and then the shocker of all shockers, the home loss to Air Force.
As an 18 1/2 point favorite, they lost the game outright 78-77, followed by another road loss at Boise State 89-79.
They righted the ship last time out at home against Fresno 79-58.
All told, this team is 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS their last 9 games.
Bottom line, you start losing like this late in the year and especially a game at home to Air Force, and it is a sure sign this team is struggling a bit.
And the one place you don't want to be heading is Utah State, which is playing for history in their program.
Yes, New Mexico State won the first meeting at home way back on January 16th 99-86 basically they didn't miss a shot shooting 57% from the floor for the game.
I don't see that happening tonight on the road.
The planets are aligned for this 25-5 Utah State team at home to play well and I believe we will see their best basketball of the year in this game.
With a rock solid win at home they get their first conference title in school history.
Lay it with confidence tonight.
