The polls were wrong yet again...

[SgtLanquel]

It looks to me like the election is a toss-up at this point. No poll has reflected anything close to that for many months? I dont believe things have shifted at the last minute, I think the polls havent reflected reality.

The only notable number I saw nationally was Biden by approx 7pts and Biden flipping MI, WI, PA and AZ...

All other potential swing states fell within +/-4..

We will need for all states to come in to evaluate the former and at the moment the latter appear to all be pretty much within the polling range

Given there were no true surprise flips in these first four hours and knowing those key three will not be fully counted for another 48 hrs I will bid you ladies adieu and check in late tomorrow for either cheers or jeers

 

[Willie99]

I think polls are right except for when trump is running .

Briexit

 

[crudebar]

If Silver is wrong this time, I am not sure how he keeps that website going. It will be a joke in which candidates are hoping he has them behind because it means they are winning.

If i gave out sports games and told you, i give this team a 99 percent chance to win(i understand he gave trump a 10 percent chance) and then when it loses, i go "o well i did give the other team 1 percent so i was still mathematically correct."

He took all the fame when he predicted all 50 states correct, in i believe 2012, so he should be taking the heat for predicting a guy at 29 percent and 10 percent and lose both, that should happen at around 2.9 percent of the time and he hit that polling 4 elections.

But still aways to go.

 

[Buster]

Why are the polls wrong?

Because they suck at their jobs!!!!!!! Seriously?

It's the new norm, polls are wrong

Yep...Spent weeks saying Graham was in danger in SC only to see him winning by 13..Media is evil....

 

[Willie99]

The pollsters predicted a blowout, Trump had like a 10% chance to winThe pollsters even told us Graham was in trouble, NOT EVEN COMPETIVEDemocrats spent 200 million dollars trying to unseat Graham and McConnell, what a colossal waste of moneyAnd who didn't know that? Seriously?

 

[HinesWard86]

This started in the UK, and it really came to prominence during the 2015 UK Election when Conservatives won a shocking majority for the first time in two decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

As for 538...not including early votes in their state models is unforgivable. Anyone who knows Florida knew that Trump was going to win there looking at the votes last week.

 

[Knightrofins]

Too many "closet Trump fans".

I do NOT mean this as an insult.

There are many Trump voters who dont need to say "MAGA" every 5 minutes in their big trucks. MANY like to stay quiet b/c they wont want to be told how shitty of a person that they are (not true) for voting for Trump so they remain quiet.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Nate Silver is cruderube's hero. One of his A+ pollsters overestimated Biden's support by:

6+ in FL
4+ in NC
Probably 6ish in MI when the count is in
10 ish in WI
10+ in IA
9+ in OH

face)(*^%

 

[3peet]

Whoever wins, it's pretty clear the polls were wrong again.

What's your theory on why?

Agreed. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics failed catastrophically.

 

[Louie12]

Whoever wins, it's pretty clear the polls were wrong again.

What's your theory on why?

i think "hidden trump vote" is part of it

i think the sampling methods are flawed. they tend to attract more left leaning voters; more commonplace for a republican to not wanna participate when theyre called

just my theory

 

[Willie99]

Agreed. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics failed catastrophically.

RCP doesn't do any polling my friend, they just provide an average of polls conducted by other sources.

538 however, is a poll adjuster. They take the same polls, weigh them according to their finger licking good secret recipe, and then present their own unique numbers

 

[shdw01]

what did the incorrect polls have?

 

[Louie12]

the rx poll was most wrong

 

[SheriffJoe]

You know who else can't forecast or track elections?

Sportsbooks.

I've never seen a more pathetic teeter-totter spectacle in my life.

Now people can stop pretending oddsmakers or certain "sharp books know something" about elections.

 

[Knightrofins]

You know who else can't forecast or track elections?

Sportsbooks.

I've never seen a more pathetic teeter-totter spectacle in my life.

Now people can stop pretending oddsmakers or certain "sharp books know something" about elections.

Not really.

They had Biden as a NICE favorite BEGGING Republicans to bet on their boy.

Then, when Trump was winning those red states that he was supposed to win anyways, Republicans got cocky and started taking those BIG money lines for Trump to win b/c he won those states that he was SUPPOSED to win anyways.

In sports terms, lets say its a 7 game series of a 4 vs 5 first round matchup and Trump is the home team. Trump won the first 2 games (as expected) so you bet BIG money lines that Trump would win the series.

Low and behold, Biden holds serve at home and then wins the road game 5 (Biden flips Arizona) and now Biden is favored again.

Ya'll got cocky with a few cocktails in ya and started betting Trump at -300, -400, -500 and so forth. I hope people who had Trump at plus money odds hedged to take Biden at plus money as well. The smart people did. The blowhards didnt. The sportsbooks played you.

So not sure how sportsbooks cant forecast or track. Their asses are laughing at you all today.

Luckily we have Crudebar the russian spy in this forum haha

 

[carlitosway]

The Silent majority exists and I underestimated that factor. These folks either won't answer or purposely mislead pollsters questions even from FOX news.

 

[carlitosway]

the rx poll was most wrong

Rx poll was obviously biased as it's mostly Republicans and particularly Trumpers who answered that poll.

 

[skins85]

The Silent majority exists and I underestimated that factor. These folks either won't answer or purposely mislead pollsters questions even from FOX news.

or we are working.

 

[carlitosway]

That's fair Skins. I too get busy with work and life in general.

 

[Willie99]

the rx poll was most wrong

We're not pretending to be an objective / scientific poll used to inform others.

We're just answering a question