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hno:
Looks like I'm skipping the fade tonight. I got Kansas State -3 (bought 1/2 point) the minute the line came out and can't turn back now. I know this team better than I know any other team in the country, and I expect they will win this one -- but for your guys' sake, hopefully not by enough.
Just a suggestion: if your book has the line at 4.5, buy Xavier to 5. I think it could come in handy tonight.
These teams played earlier this year. K-State won by 15 at home. So Xavier is on revenge, and these teams have a bit of history, with Xavier curbstomping K-State back when they had Beasley and Walker. Bottom line: these teams truly HATE each other, which is sort of weird. Perhaps that will set things up for an epic, down-to-the-wire game.
Good luck all!
Probably one of the most (only?) intelligent posts I've had on this board.
:lolBIG:
Execution is key!
Just check out what I did with the fade fund, how the money went down. My bets go down when I lose and when I lose more than 2/3 of my fund I shut it down. I start with a small amount of money as a bankroll, and keep the same amount in reserve in case my first fund goes bust which the fade fund did.
http://forum.therx.com/showpost.php?p=7744248&postcount=381
The second fund is from the reserve fund, I got one more shot. I switched strategies as the old one was not working. Going with the Lang trend now. You start with a bankroll you can afford to lose and do not add any money to it. Its a discipline. One thousand dollars doubled ten times is over one million dollars. This system is one where your bankroll could easily double in two weeks if you get a streak. The minimum bet is 10% of the bankroll plus the vig for 5 dimes and the maximum bet is 30% of the bankroll plus the vig.
Execution is the key. You have to get the best line! Have multiple outs and don't be afraid to buy the hook!
Good luck!
Just check out what I did with the fade fund, how the money went down. My bets go down when I lose and when I lose more than 2/3 of my fund I shut it down. I start with a small amount of money as a bankroll, and keep the same amount in reserve in case my first fund goes bust which the fade fund did.
http://forum.therx.com/showpost.php?p=7744248&postcount=381
The second fund is from the reserve fund, I got one more shot. I switched strategies as the old one was not working. Going with the Lang trend now. You start with a bankroll you can afford to lose and do not add any money to it. Its a discipline. One thousand dollars doubled ten times is over one million dollars. This system is one where your bankroll could easily double in two weeks if you get a streak. The minimum bet is 10% of the bankroll plus the vig for 5 dimes and the maximum bet is 30% of the bankroll plus the vig.
Execution is the key. You have to get the best line! Have multiple outs and don't be afraid to buy the hook!
Good luck!
!
Great game, but difficult to determine who won at sportsbooks worldwide.
The biggest misconception gamblers and customers have is that games are graded based on the "final" line. That's ridiculous because why would any gambler wait until minutes before a game starts to bet on it in the first place?
And waiting until the last minute to bet a favorite is suicidal.
Furthermore, whose line among the hundreds of sportsbooks are you going to consider the "official" closing price anyway?
Game are graded at this site this way: Lines at the three major casinos in Vegas (Hilton, Mirage and Caesars) and two biggest offshore (Bodog and Sportsbook) are examined to see what their prices were at the most likely times gamblers are wagering on a particular contest.
A consideration is then given to when handicappers released the game in question. Customers of those that released K-State early on Wednesday night definitely got the Wildcats at -4 1/2 because that price was absolutely out there and bettable. And considering all the handicappers at this site had to have their plays posted by 10:00 A.M. Eastern on Thursday, it should have been a push at the worst for their customers - except those that came to the site much later in the day.
Examining Thursday's lines:
In Las Vegas....
At the Hilton it moved to -5 at 1:57 pm Eastern and closed at that price.
At Leroys, it moved to -5 at 3:39 pm Eastern.
At the Mirage, it was -5 all day long.
At Caesars it was -5 until 7:18 pm Eastern
Offshore....
At Sportsbook.com it moved to -5 at 10:30 am Eastern and closed at that price
At Bodog it was -5 1/2 all day, but it's a house that generally always inflates the prices of chalks by 1/2 point (which makes it a great place to play a dog without buying insurance).
Over 14,000 customers company-wide accessed plays on Thursday. Some won with Kansas State, most pushed and a few lost. And that's why the game is graded a PUSH because it's the only fair thing to do - even if it costs some handicappers big wins or dents their profit margins.
This is not a black and white issue; there is no 100% perfect answer, thus a push is the right call.
DeMarco must of had Xavier too, surprise, surprise!
Who Covered: Kansas State, Xavier or Neither
What a game. Best of the Tournament in my book. But talk about splitting hairs when it comes to determining who covered it since I'm the guy who grades all the plays for the handicappers at this site.
The biggest misconception gamblers and customers have is that games are graded based on the "final" line. That's total BS. Seriously, how many times did you wait until tip-off, the opening kickoff or the first pitch of a game to wager upon it?
And anyone who is waiting until the last minute to bet a favorite - and using that closing line price - shouldn't be gambling in the first place.
You bet favorites early and dogs late. End of story.
Furthermore, whose line among the hundreds of sportsbooks are you going to consider the "official" closing price anyway? Yet I continually hear guys trying to justify a win or a loss by a closing line.
Based on my 25 years in this business, here's how I grade games: I look at the lines at the three major casinos in Vegas (Hilton, Mirage and Caesars) and two biggest offshore (Bodog and Sportsbook) and see what their prices are at the most likely times gamblers are wagering on games.
I also have to take into consideration when handicappers released the plays. Customers of those that gave you K-State early on Wednesday night definitely got the Wildcats at -4 1/2. And if they didn't, they were too lazy and didn't shop around. And considering all the handicappers at this site had to have their plays posted by 10:00 A.M. Eastern on Thursday, it should have been a push at the worst for their customers - except those that came to the site much later in the day. And whose fault is that?
To give you a few examples:
In Las Vegas....
At the Hilton it moved to -5 at 1:57 pm Eastern and closed at that price.
At Leroys, it moved to -5 at 3:39 pm Eastern.
At the Mirage, it was -5 all day long.
At Caesars it was -5 until 7:18 pm Eastern
Offshore....
At Sportsbook.com it moved to -5 at 10:30 am Eastern and closed at that price
At Bodog it was -5 1/2 all day, but if you haven't learned by now that is the book that seemingly always (my personal opinion) over-priced favorites.
We had over 14,000 customers company-wide accessing plays on Thursday. Some won with Kansas State, most pushed and I'm sure a few lost. And that's why the game is graded a PUSH because it's the only fair thing to do.
As I've always said, without integrity we have nothing at this site so I'd rather err on the side of being honest and fair, even if it costs some handicappers big wins or hurts their profit margins.
This is not a black and white issue; there is no 100% perfect answer. It's a gray area and as such a push is the only way to call the Kansas State-Xavier contest.
Kansas State, Xavier, or a Push?
Great game, but difficult to determine who won at sportsbooks worldwide.
The biggest misconception gamblers and customers have is that games are graded based on the "final" line. That's ridiculous because why would any gambler wait until minutes before a game starts to bet on it in the first place?
And waiting until the last minute to bet a favorite is suicidal.
Furthermore, whose line among the hundreds of sportsbooks are you going to consider the "official" closing price anyway?
Game are graded at this site this way: Lines at the three major casinos in Vegas (Hilton, Mirage and Caesars) and two biggest offshore (Bodog and Sportsbook) are examined to see what their prices were at the most likely times gamblers are wagering on a particular contest.
A consideration is then given to when handicappers released the game in question. Customers of those that released K-State early on Wednesday night definitely got the Wildcats at -4 1/2 because that price was absolutely out there and bettable. And considering all the handicappers at this site had to have their plays posted by 10:00 A.M. Eastern on Thursday, it should have been a push at the worst for their customers - except those that came to the site much later in the day.
Examining Thursday's lines:
In Las Vegas....
At the Hilton it moved to -5 at 1:57 pm Eastern and closed at that price.
At Leroys, it moved to -5 at 3:39 pm Eastern.
At the Mirage, it was -5 all day long.
At Caesars it was -5 until 7:18 pm Eastern
Offshore....
At Sportsbook.com it moved to -5 at 10:30 am Eastern and closed at that price
At Bodog it was -5 1/2 all day, but it's a house that generally always inflates the prices of chalks by 1/2 point (which makes it a great place to play a dog without buying insurance).
Over 14,000 customers company-wide accessed plays on Thursday. Some won with Kansas State, most pushed and a few lost. And that's why the game is graded a PUSH because it's the only fair thing to do - even if it costs some handicappers big wins or dents their profit margins.
This is not a black and white issue; there is no 100% perfect answer, thus a push is the right call.
DeMarco must of had Xavier too, surprise, surprise!
Who Covered: Kansas State, Xavier or Neither
What a game. Best of the Tournament in my book. But talk about splitting hairs when it comes to determining who covered it since I'm the guy who grades all the plays for the handicappers at this site.
The biggest misconception gamblers and customers have is that games are graded based on the "final" line. That's total BS. Seriously, how many times did you wait until tip-off, the opening kickoff or the first pitch of a game to wager upon it?
And anyone who is waiting until the last minute to bet a favorite - and using that closing line price - shouldn't be gambling in the first place.
You bet favorites early and dogs late. End of story.
Furthermore, whose line among the hundreds of sportsbooks are you going to consider the "official" closing price anyway? Yet I continually hear guys trying to justify a win or a loss by a closing line.
Based on my 25 years in this business, here's how I grade games: I look at the lines at the three major casinos in Vegas (Hilton, Mirage and Caesars) and two biggest offshore (Bodog and Sportsbook) and see what their prices are at the most likely times gamblers are wagering on games.
I also have to take into consideration when handicappers released the plays. Customers of those that gave you K-State early on Wednesday night definitely got the Wildcats at -4 1/2. And if they didn't, they were too lazy and didn't shop around. And considering all the handicappers at this site had to have their plays posted by 10:00 A.M. Eastern on Thursday, it should have been a push at the worst for their customers - except those that came to the site much later in the day. And whose fault is that?
To give you a few examples:
In Las Vegas....
At the Hilton it moved to -5 at 1:57 pm Eastern and closed at that price.
At Leroys, it moved to -5 at 3:39 pm Eastern.
At the Mirage, it was -5 all day long.
At Caesars it was -5 until 7:18 pm Eastern
Offshore....
At Sportsbook.com it moved to -5 at 10:30 am Eastern and closed at that price
At Bodog it was -5 1/2 all day, but if you haven't learned by now that is the book that seemingly always (my personal opinion) over-priced favorites.
We had over 14,000 customers company-wide accessing plays on Thursday. Some won with Kansas State, most pushed and I'm sure a few lost. And that's why the game is graded a PUSH because it's the only fair thing to do.
As I've always said, without integrity we have nothing at this site so I'd rather err on the side of being honest and fair, even if it costs some handicappers big wins or hurts their profit margins.
This is not a black and white issue; there is no 100% perfect answer. It's a gray area and as such a push is the only way to call the Kansas State-Xavier contest.
dont know the o/u on the kentucky game but either way your are 50% at best today
Wait for the pick!
You got to wait for the pick. I believe Lang will be going with Duke. Purdue has played well in the first 2 rounds of this tournament with wins over Siena and a good Texas A&M team, but the Boilermakers are still not as good without injured star Robbie Hummel. Those two wins actually set up the Boilermakers in a very negative 1-19 ATS round 3 situation while Duke applies to a 26-4 ATS round 3 angle.
You got to wait for the pick. I believe Lang will be going with Duke. Purdue has played well in the first 2 rounds of this tournament with wins over Siena and a good Texas A&M team, but the Boilermakers are still not as good without injured star Robbie Hummel. Those two wins actually set up the Boilermakers in a very negative 1-19 ATS round 3 situation while Duke applies to a 26-4 ATS round 3 angle.
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