The Cat's NFL Over/Under Bets, Plus More, & Detailed Writeups - Week 8 - YTD: 60-40-1 (60%)

[CatsOverUnders]

I'll give you props on the Indians call, but the Pirates, I'm not sure on that one. They've been amassing some sick talent via the draft the last couple years coupled with picking up Martin and Liriano off of FA. They've underperformed like crazy the past couple years, it was just a matter of time until they got some variance to swing their way. They're just too well run to continually scuffle. Liriano's breakout year was well, I'm not going to say 'easy' to see coming simply b/c pitchers are so unpredictable but shoot, they've got AJ Burnett on their roster! We've already seen the story once lol!! He went from being a dumpster fire to a borderline ace and you couple that spacious ballpark w/ Pittsburgh's sick, sickkkkk OF (might be the best defensive OF in baseball) and you could see Liriano being a viable comeback story.

As for the bolded statement above. Man, I just don't know. If I read your picks, it would be really difficult to tail you. It's almost ironic what my reasoning would be, it's because you buy so many points. Let me explain, I see a guy buying points and I think to myself, 'Why is he buying so many points, is he lacking confidence in his picks'? If you're going to tail someone you want them oozing with confidence (something I know you're not short of lol) but you send the absolute opposite message with your 'play it safe approach'. Plus, if I were betting bigger amounts, boy, I'm not sure if I would even be up money this year tailing you. The reason simply being the huge chunks my bankroll would take when some of your -150+ wagers lose (hey, it happens lol).

I was wondering if you could do me a favor and it's going to be a slight pain in the ass for you. But, it's a Tuesday and a slow sports day (I don't think you dabble in the NBA at all, if you do, well...kickoff isn't until tomorrow lol only 3 games tonight). Could you go through your NFL wagers this season to date and adjust them for what a person who bets $100 and $200 would be up this season if they followed you on every single pick? I'll leave props out of this because you bet a pretty wide spread on them and it would be difficult to find a common unit. I believe you've mentioned your base unit as $20 (please correct me if I'm wrong). So, for example if you were betting say $30 to win $20 (-150), you would adjust my wager to $150 to win $100 or $300 to win $200 and so on? I'm asking you to do this for two reasons. One, to show you what would happen if/when you get a bigger bankroll and the swings that will result. Two, to show you that why simply betting more is a really tough sell as your justification for your heavy juice approach. I will say, it was nice to see you dabble in a ML underdog last week as that is where the real money lies (for someone who bets as much baseball as you, you should already know that). Normally, I would do this myself but frankly, I'm too goddamn busy @ work and my new company has blocked therx.

Stay golden Ponyboy

If I get the chance, I'd definitely be interested in doing something like that as a case-study for what I'd be up if my bets were consistently in the $100 range. That's an excellent idea, but I, too, have work all day so I cannot do that at the moment.

The only thing I can mention is that, again, I remind everyone every single week that *you do not have to buy the half-point or point(s) that I do* (Look through the thread, I believe I said it twice attached to my picks lol), and you'd have the same record, except for two games, as me anyway. I post that, I guess you can call it a disclaimer, every single week, so if you listen to the disclaimer and take my games with the regular -110 line, you're up a lot this year, and I would hope that people listen to it, since I do remind everyone every single week. And I will continue to do that, as I guess maybe some don't see that disclaimer in all my weekly threads

And agree about the Pirates. I thought it was easy to see, but apparently, the overrated ones in Vegas had no clue it was coming (Even when the Pirates were great in the first half, their NL Pennant Futures Odds were +950! +950 for a contender at the all-star break! I jumped on it and wisely hedged in their first rd matchup with St. Louis), as they pegged Pittsburgh for like 75 wins this year (And in fourth place, only barely ahead of the lowly Cubs, whom they predicted for 72). Man I love Win Totals.

P.S. I do NBA Over/Unders as well, but I keep that to myself, as in I don't post 'em anywhere. Had the chance to do it for Vegas Insider actually, but politely declined because I'd rather not go through that pressure and ups & downs that I did for baseball for another six months. Money isn't everything, especially when a job like that is very stressful. So I'm just going to relax this baseball offseason, enjoy my NBA betting in a pressure-less, relaxed environment, and that's it. By the way, I LOVE Wolves Over 40.5 Wins and Raptors Over 35.5 Wins. Highly, highly, highly, highly recommended. I master Win Totals every year and those are two huge ones. That recommendation goes out to everyone. Trust me. Look what I've done with my baseball and football ones that I've posted here, as an example (2-0 with my posted Indians and Rockies Overs this year; 2-0 with my NFL ones last year; and on pace to go 5-0 in NFL this year... I own Win Totals, pretty much)

*And I'm thinking about your Mariners Win Total for next year with that studded rotation. Very curious to see when it is revealed.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

I hope that anyone reading who is interested in actually winning over the long term reads Biz in post #55 and what GoBlue has to say about these wagers every week.

If the cats character actually believed what he was saying regarding his own picking prowess two things would be happening:
1. The wagers would be larger
2. Instead of buying points, he'd be selling them (Rams +12 was +105 last night for example and so was under 43)

Draw your own conclusions.

1. So I should stupidly exceed the bankroll I work with? You do know flukes happen, so what if the one week I decide to raise my bets significantly, things go wrong? It's very easy to hit a rough patch. Even the elite ones, such as myself, should never take a great run for granted. Maybe that's a mistake being content with the excellence I've exhibited this year, but I certainly don't take it for granted. Any given week - for ANYONE - you could easily have a week full of bad luck, and then what? Your mindset becomes ruined, you suddenly find yourself down despite a great season... there's a whole bunch of factors involved when maiking a decision like that. When my winnings are built up more, and I feel the time is right, then I can proceed with raising my wagers. But in the meantime, when anything can happen and I'm not up a ton, I gradually have to build it up. The only wagers I consistently put hundreds on are Win Totals, since those are surprisingly easy (Ex. My biggest NFL bet of all-time was last year with Rams Over 6.5 Wins, which was for $350-$400).

2. On most sportsbooks, you can't sell points. It's kinda funny you say that like it's a normal thing that can be done anywhere. So yeah, my sportsbook is just one of most that don't have that option.

Draw your own conclusions... on this poster that continues to seek attention from me. Jealousy? Maybe if you tried posting picks (Do you not post picks because you're not good and have no idea what you're talking about? Hmm), you'd have some credibility around here.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

I could write a Cats novel in response but I will try to be brief. Again, almost NO ONE is following your picks. If they were and your picks weren't even posted until game time (a large % of them didn't even get allowed until noon due to you being on post review) wouldn't at least ONE PERSON have said something in your post? Or told a mod "hey this guy is a wealth of knowledge so can he be off post review please" or "hey Cats can you make sure you get your plays in earlier?" Not one person said that out of your legion of believers.

99% of the people that view this thread are here for one thing, to hope and see you fail. Not because they hate to see anyone win, but they hate to see a pompus ass succeed. There are plenty of guys on here that win and they go about their business. They don't post how many page views they have or bet rolls of pennies on games they win, cash and share knowledge just because they are nice guys. You even said you don't really care about winning money, only that you have a high %. What kind of moron says that? You would rather be at 60% and losing money? Because that's possible with the way you wager.

You keep saying you know more about sports than anyone yet you bet $30 to win $20. In my profession I know what I'm doing and I get paid well to do it. If my boss came to me and said I was the best but I'm only going to pay you $.50 an hour (that is probably what you make when you add up all the hours you waste here and with your wager amount) I would go tell him to fuck himself and find a real career or find a new job that pays better. The best in the world as you say it then why not go get a loan, get a real bankroll and actually make some real money? Or is there at $50 limit at your site?

You may think you know more about sports than anyone but one thing you don't know how to do is be humble and know when people say you are buying points and it's costing you money and you say it's not. Everyone on this board is wrong and you are right. Go take a stats class or hell go sit in a 3rd grade math class and learn subtraction and addition. Or invest your winnings in a calculator.

That all said, congrats on another winning week. Will add them up later today "for you."

Explains the points-buying stuff in a post above, as well as the DISCLAIMER I say every single week when I clearly say, with asterisks to make it stand out, *Reminding everyone you do not have to buy the half-point or point(s) in my over/unders, since you'd have the same magnificent record, except for two games, anyway*. Why do I have to keep repeating myself? You're obsessed with me so you shouldn't miss obvious details like that when I repeat them multiple times throughout my thread, usually in the post where I state my picks. It's simple.

The bankroll issue I also discussed above so not going to get into that again. Other than that, blah blah blah pompous blah blah blah best in the country. You're almost like a robot. I can count on you to spew the same garbage every single week in my threads.

And thank you for the congrats. Yes, seven winning weeks out of eight is pretty special, actually. Considering I highly doubt anyone has been up all eight weeks of the season, I'm pretty sure that means I have one of the best streaks in the entire country going. Is that baad?

And no need to add up MY work. That thread is done, since my record-keeping is accurate and precise. Your thread, as expected, serves no purpose now if it matches my exact record and +/- money (And you had the wrong record in your "record-tracking" thread. Nice one, genius). So keep it going and you'll hear about it from the Mods about keeping a thread that exists solely just to bash me. Last I remember, that's against the rules.

Why don't you finally do something constructive with your time? Like, hmm, actually posting picks? You don't contribute anything positive here. You're useless. Start posting picks and you'll have some credibility. Let's see if you actually have any talent at this, which I highly doubt. Prove me wrong. Would love to see it (Or are you scared of burying your name and credibility even more because you're not good? What a shock).

 

[NFLTrends]

And thank you for the congrats. Yes, seven winning weeks out of eight is pretty special, actually. Considering I highly doubt anyone has been up all eight weeks of the season, I'm pretty sure that means I have one of the best streaks in the entire country going. Is that baad?

... Guess I should also thump my chest since I have also been up all eight weeks of the season. This country is huge. I am sure there are hundreds of people out there that have been up ALL season

**Chest Thump**

 

[RookieDL]

If you want more people to view your threads and follow your picks, start listening to some of the novelesque responses that people are taking the time to write. Plain and simple. I do follow some of your picks, but it would be a lot easier without all the fluff.

Goodluck week 9

 

[DwayneBowe]

Grats this week. Selling points is an interesting concept. I know 5Dimes, Heritage and Pinnacle allow it.....but of course most books want you to lay the -110 and -105.

 

[StevieRay]

... Guess I should also thump my chest since I have also been up all eight weeks of the season. This country is huge. I am sure there are hundreds of people out there that have been up ALL season

**Chest Thump**

but are you up $163!!

 

[Acebb]

1. So I should stupidly exceed the bankroll I work with? You do know flukes happen, so what if the one week I decide to raise my bets significantly, things go wrong?

==========
Response fail.

See, if you were actually confident you would do this: "my final bet was $51 for $30" and then carry on that you would have bet $33 to win $30, you would bet say $55 to win $50.

You bringing up "rough patches" is a straw man. See, nobody is disputing losing streaks happen. What the issue is here, not your straw man, is that you continuously claim to be the "best of the best" and know all this sports psychology. Yet you can't seem to make a single wager without buying points.

Funny that, huh?

Per #2 - ok, so you can't sell points. Can you look for a different outlet?
If not, why aren't you betting underdogs (when you like them) on the ML when in 83% of the NFL games the spread doesn't matter?

 

[Acebb]

Draw your own conclusions... on this poster that continues to seek attention from me. Jealousy? Maybe if you tried posting picks (Do you not post picks because you're not good and have no idea what you're talking about? Hmm), you'd have some credibility around here.

=============
Notice how when one can't respond to actual facts, they aim to change the subject.
Note: whether or not I "post picks" here is irrelevant to the fact that your wagering strategy is, well, subpar, to say the least.

 

[NFLTrends]

but are you up $163!!

Only up $1810 Which is 18x my starting unit

 

[Betallsports]

Not to jump on the Bandwagon here .... and I'm not going to look back to which thread it was. But when this first come up about you Buying Points in your Bets... I Told you or whoever that this is getting out of hand and that You Will NEVER.... EVER..... be a Winning Gambler in this Sport of Football.

I also said that Yes, I will Buy off a Key number like -3.5, -7.5 etc... but I'm buying the Hook.
I don't do it all the time.... but I do, do it.

What I said back then was that Gambling is all about laying as little Juice as possible.

You saying that it Doesn't matter because you Still won the Bet... Doesn't mean SH*T.
Because unless you run the Table all YEAR.... Your Losses with that Extra Juice will Add up to your Bottom line

That's why ( and someone else said it... believe it was BIZ ) That if you can Not find a Shop that offers Reduced Juice ( -105 ) then you are Already behind the 8 Ball !! But it is normal..... to lay -110

As a Gambler.... it's All about the BOTTOM LINE.

You are Not a Gambler...... You are Young... and Set in your own ways..... You do a GREAT Write-up.... well little too long.... but you did go to School for journalism . so I guess that's where it comes from.
Plus in the SEO world, 500, 750 or 1,000 word articles are the "Now thing"

You know Sports.....Stats, Players... etc....

But you are NOT a gambler. You Don't know how to Gamble !

and this might sound a little harsh ... but you are Too Prideful ... and I've said this before... Too "Tout like"
YES.... I know... you only do it for Baseball...but reading apart of what you post each week... if I was an outsider ...Newbie and knew a little about Services and touts. I would think that's what you are.

On a side note.... Us Mods can see a count on unique visitors ... you might have 8,000 views, but you have Only 240 Unique visitors ... meaning you are Losing visitors. Just an FYI

BOL !

 

[Biz]

Cat,
You are going about this backwards.

You do not set an amount you want to win, and bet enough to cover the juice to get there.

You bet what you want to risk, and win the amount offered at that price.

You are a very good handicapper, and the absolute worst bettor I have ever come across.

I hope someday you will get it through your head that what you are doing with regards to buying points is flat out wrong. Stop justifying it.

The sooner you realize this, and more importantly act upon it, the sooner you will become a true winning player.

It would be a shame that a guy with talent, and you do have talent, wastes it because he is too stubborn to take advice from the many here offering it.

 

[candylicker]

U seem to be doing good job... But your not the only 1.... 10 totals has ben hitting over 70% since last year. Record stands at 49-18. Thats 73% and no. They do not buy points... Good luck! Be humble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bad_Cat]

Any plays this weekend Call_Me_Marquee?

 

[Bad_Cat]

For those of you who don't know "Call_Me_Marquee", he is a former poster here at the Rx and his old handle here was "Catsoverunders". He ditched that name after he went tout and failed, and now he's back. If you would like a little confirmation just search his old name and read his threads and style of writing and you will see that his denial of such is all a lie. He's trying to hide from that old handle because nobody liked him and he doesn't want anyone to know that he is a failed tout.

Anyway, he also enjoys stating in his threads that he's the best handicapper in the world and his win percentage, even though he has only posted 30 plays and only 6 sides, is among the best in the world lol. He also enjoys coming into my threads and other peoples threads bashing them and running his cockwasher in order to try to boost his popularity since his threads have the lowest views of any thread. So, I decided since he likes to make these false claims and since he thinks he's the best in the world and I'm the worst capper in this forum, which we all know that's a line of BS, I would make a thread for a little challenge.

Hey Marquee/Catsoverunders, let's have a little capper challenge the rest of the NFL season. Don't be scared or coward away let's show everyone how bad you are and how good I am. I'll agree to have anyone who wants to in this forum, be in charge of monitoring the picks as a 3rd party. Simple rules.....Pick every remaining game in the NFL, side or total, through the Super Bowl. It's only a few games but I would wager you wouldn't be above .500 lol. Let's see who can win more games of the 7 or so that we have left. NO TEASERS. I know you love those because you can't cap a side but we are doing just sides or totals. If you would like, after I embarrass you in the NFL, to continue into another sport just say the word. I'll continue until you say mercy.

Lets see how you do. Maybe this will get you to shut your mouth and show some respect to other cappers who are several notches above you. You ready? All you have to do is not be the coward that you are and agree. Hell, a mod can even be in charge of this, I don't care. Ready to do this Matt Zylbert? let's see if you have a backbone or if your just some dumb keyboard warrior who likes to trash other people like touts do.

Ill be waiting for your acceptance and we can start with this weekends games. Don't shy away with everyone watching. That would look awfully bad for you lol.

 

[Betallsports]

Guess you had to go there again after my warning.

Enjoy your time off