And here it is...
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams - $51 for $30
UNDER 47 (Bought 3 points)
Fully worth it to buy the points, since this is a small bet and involves such a little cost to protect myself in the event of a worst-case scenario, so why not? There are a lot of reasons to like this under, starting with the obvious, that Kellen Clemens, even though I think he’s underrated, making his first start since the end of the 2011 season, being matched up against the best defense in football. While I was praising Clemens earlier in my thread, a poster helped me realize to look deeper into that last stint of his, which involved him facing two top-five defenses from that point in time (49ers and Steelers), and in those pair of outings, he was shut down rather noticeably. Thus, since Seattle’s defense is very comparable to those two defenses Clemens faced in 2011, it’s very reasonable to believe that he experiences similar struggles. Even if he holds his own, what are the odds a Clemens-led offense with virtually no real weapons (Until they properly use Tavon Austin correctly) puts up around 20 on the scoreboard against the No. 1 defense that gives up the fewest points in football? Don’t overthink it - it’s writing on the wall for a reason. This passage from the official Associated Press preview also caught my eye:
"Somebody's got to play," said Clemens, who has a 62.2 career passer rating in 31 games. "So I'll go out there and do the best job I can and try to help this team win some games."
Human Psychology is my No. 1 factor in handicapping, and when I find it potentially playing a role in the outcome of a ballgame, that is when I am most effective (See: My 500-word article on Josh Freeman’s predictable mindset entering last Monday Night; factually the longest write-up about his mentality in the country last week) because as I said then, and I’ll repeat it now, you can’t escape human nature. No one can. Thus, if you really examine those things Clemens said, how can you possibly anticipate him putting together any type of special outing? “Somebody’s got to play” is one of the worst lines someone can say when they’re taking over a crucial position like quarterback for the next several weeks, if not the rest of the season! Shouldn’t you be amped about such an opportunity? Especially for a relatively high draft pick like Clemens, who has not even come close to living up to expectations when he was a second-rounder a few years back. “Somebody’s got to play” is a line a loser would say, someone with little confidence and no assurance that they can take this job and run with it. And this is the guy Rams backers are leaning on to take on the stingiest defense the NFL has seen over the past couple of years? That’s laughable. In no way am I calling Clemens a loser, because I actually think he’s one of the better backups in the league (Although he still trails far behind whom I do think is the best back-up in all of pro football, Shaun Hill), but you can’t have that mindset and expect to be successful. Not at all.
Of course, there’s the possibility Clemens turns the ball over a bunch, thus giving Seattle’s rugged offense constant good field-position, which would not bode well for our under, but this is someone who at least has experience being a game manager, which is all we want him to be. In that aforementioned stint starting at the end of 2011, against those really good defenses, Clemens only had one pick, which is commendable. This could indicate he’s a smarter humble quarterback, which is a characteristic I’ll take for this under.
But what about the Seahawks offense and their tendency to put up boatloads of points in some games? Well, I’ll counter with these facts: A)The Seahawks collectively already admitted, including from head coach Pete Carrol, that they’re not that same team from the end of last year when they were seemingly routinely winning games 45-10. B)Tonight, they’re facing a defense that shut them down anyway last year in their peak, and Russell Wilson had his worst game as a pro against this same Rams defensive unit. C)While Rams defensive players might be losing hope on the season, it’s still at a point where there’s still that glimmer of hope, so we shouldn’t have to worry about them becoming relaxed or anything like that, also due to this being a nationally-televised Monday Night Football game. As a result, they’ll put their full effort in, and if that’s the case from stellar defensive players like Janoris Jenkins and Chris Long, that’s what we want. They’ll play hard and keep the Seahawks at a reasonable score.
*Remember, as I advise every week, you do NOT have to buy the half-point or point(s) that I buy for certain games. You’d have the same record as me ANYWAY, except for only a couple of games, but you can certainly still win this Under with the line at 44 or 45 (I would definitely recommend at least buying a point, so you’re protected if it’s 31-14/34-10/28-17).
GL to those who tail, and with whatever additional action you may have on the game tonight.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams - $51 for $30
UNDER 47 (Bought 3 points)
Fully worth it to buy the points, since this is a small bet and involves such a little cost to protect myself in the event of a worst-case scenario, so why not? There are a lot of reasons to like this under, starting with the obvious, that Kellen Clemens, even though I think he’s underrated, making his first start since the end of the 2011 season, being matched up against the best defense in football. While I was praising Clemens earlier in my thread, a poster helped me realize to look deeper into that last stint of his, which involved him facing two top-five defenses from that point in time (49ers and Steelers), and in those pair of outings, he was shut down rather noticeably. Thus, since Seattle’s defense is very comparable to those two defenses Clemens faced in 2011, it’s very reasonable to believe that he experiences similar struggles. Even if he holds his own, what are the odds a Clemens-led offense with virtually no real weapons (Until they properly use Tavon Austin correctly) puts up around 20 on the scoreboard against the No. 1 defense that gives up the fewest points in football? Don’t overthink it - it’s writing on the wall for a reason. This passage from the official Associated Press preview also caught my eye:
"Somebody's got to play," said Clemens, who has a 62.2 career passer rating in 31 games. "So I'll go out there and do the best job I can and try to help this team win some games."
Human Psychology is my No. 1 factor in handicapping, and when I find it potentially playing a role in the outcome of a ballgame, that is when I am most effective (See: My 500-word article on Josh Freeman’s predictable mindset entering last Monday Night; factually the longest write-up about his mentality in the country last week) because as I said then, and I’ll repeat it now, you can’t escape human nature. No one can. Thus, if you really examine those things Clemens said, how can you possibly anticipate him putting together any type of special outing? “Somebody’s got to play” is one of the worst lines someone can say when they’re taking over a crucial position like quarterback for the next several weeks, if not the rest of the season! Shouldn’t you be amped about such an opportunity? Especially for a relatively high draft pick like Clemens, who has not even come close to living up to expectations when he was a second-rounder a few years back. “Somebody’s got to play” is a line a loser would say, someone with little confidence and no assurance that they can take this job and run with it. And this is the guy Rams backers are leaning on to take on the stingiest defense the NFL has seen over the past couple of years? That’s laughable. In no way am I calling Clemens a loser, because I actually think he’s one of the better backups in the league (Although he still trails far behind whom I do think is the best back-up in all of pro football, Shaun Hill), but you can’t have that mindset and expect to be successful. Not at all.
Of course, there’s the possibility Clemens turns the ball over a bunch, thus giving Seattle’s rugged offense constant good field-position, which would not bode well for our under, but this is someone who at least has experience being a game manager, which is all we want him to be. In that aforementioned stint starting at the end of 2011, against those really good defenses, Clemens only had one pick, which is commendable. This could indicate he’s a smarter humble quarterback, which is a characteristic I’ll take for this under.
But what about the Seahawks offense and their tendency to put up boatloads of points in some games? Well, I’ll counter with these facts: A)The Seahawks collectively already admitted, including from head coach Pete Carrol, that they’re not that same team from the end of last year when they were seemingly routinely winning games 45-10. B)Tonight, they’re facing a defense that shut them down anyway last year in their peak, and Russell Wilson had his worst game as a pro against this same Rams defensive unit. C)While Rams defensive players might be losing hope on the season, it’s still at a point where there’s still that glimmer of hope, so we shouldn’t have to worry about them becoming relaxed or anything like that, also due to this being a nationally-televised Monday Night Football game. As a result, they’ll put their full effort in, and if that’s the case from stellar defensive players like Janoris Jenkins and Chris Long, that’s what we want. They’ll play hard and keep the Seahawks at a reasonable score.
*Remember, as I advise every week, you do NOT have to buy the half-point or point(s) that I buy for certain games. You’d have the same record as me ANYWAY, except for only a couple of games, but you can certainly still win this Under with the line at 44 or 45 (I would definitely recommend at least buying a point, so you’re protected if it’s 31-14/34-10/28-17).
GL to those who tail, and with whatever additional action you may have on the game tonight.
