Alright, it’s that time of the week. Out to a fine start on this Week 8 slate so hopefully I have a nice grasp on the rest of the schedule to ensure that this be my seventh winning week in eight tries. Let’s see what The Cat has to offer…
(And remember, you do not have to buy the half-point or point(s) that I recommend. Other than two games where it mattered, my record would be exactly the same if I left it at the original -110 line, thus meaning you can take these bets with their normal lines and still win anyway)
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints - $86 for $55
OVER 45 (Bought 3 points) - $60 for $35
OVER 47 (Bought 1 point) - $26 for $20
*Note: This all counts as one bet; I just don’t want all of it to be on 45, since that’s -170, but I at least want the majority of it so that if it does land on that, I barely lose anything. For those unfamiliar, in the rare times I do this, the way I score these is, say if it lands on 45, the bet as a whole would officially go into the record as a push (Since that’s the majority of it), but I would still obviously count the money lost in my +/-. If it lands on 47, the bet counts as one win, but obviously I don’t get full credit for the $50 potentially won. That’s how it should be counted.
Before you whine about me buying the maximum points here, yes, I feel it’s necessary because 45 is a very key number (28-17, 31-14) in how this game could easily play out, that being in decisive fashion, in the Super Dome. It’s no secret how good the Saints are offensively, and even with Jimmy Graham limited (At least he’s playing!), there are just so many weapons that enable Drew Brees to succeed significantly so consistently that you just can’t really slow him down at all. He’s also getting my personal favorite player back today in Lance “All That And” Moore, who actually might be a sleeper in this game. Something you might not know is that over the past three years, in the game following New Orleans’ bye week, Brees’ offense averages around 45 points/game in those contests, a trend I find very notable because a team’s matchup after their bye week indicates a collective fresh mindset. That’s crucial and should play a role in this one. The key, however, could be how Thad Lewis does in his third start this season with Buffalo, and as I predicted before his first start against Cincinnati, I thought he’d do more than a fine job. I believe Fred Jackson is in for a huge game today with C.J. Spiller out, and as long as they get 17 points on the board, even against a much-improved Saints defense in 2013, that should put us in position to take this over.
Other Over/Unders
Redskins @ Broncos OVER 54 (Bought 3 points) - $42 for $25
Listen, when it’s this high, and you know as a handicapper that the worst-case scenario is going to be right around that final number, coupled with the fact that this is a small bet, then you take your chances. I don’t want to lose if it’s a 34-20-type game, which it could easily be in any high-scoring game, so I’ll buy the points here and not look back. Simple. Off the top of my head, the over has hit in every single Broncos game this year and there’s no reason for that streak to end against an almost-equally-as-game Redskins offense that has been picking up steam. I expect this one to finish around the 34-21 mark, actually.
Jets @ Bengals UNDER 44 (Bought 2.5 points) - $32 for $20
Taking a chance by buying some juice, and not even up to the ever-popular 45, but again, it’s a minimum-size bet, meaning I’m literally only spending a few extra dollars to have it where it’s at. Thus, as long as this game doesn’t end 24-21, and I certainly don’t expect it to exceed that, I can pick up a win on this game.
Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Arizona Cardinals (Best Side Bet)
Falcons +3 - $60 for $50
Falcons ML - $20 for $25
*Note: These each count as one bet, since they’re different types of bets. Falcons ML, no matter the result, will go into a new category, that being Underdog MLs, in my statistics.
Maybe it’s just me but this bet looks like it’s completely flipped, as in the Falcons are the ones who should be favored by three. The Cardinals have not looked that good recently, especially their embattled quarterback Carson Palmer who seemingly continues to regress as Arizona’s new “franchise” quarterback, while the Falcons showed everybody something interesting last week, albeit over the hapless Buccaneers, that they’re still capable of hanging around, even with some star-studded injuries. And even so, I think they can continue to roll. I managed to catch an interesting Falcons piece on NFL Network the other day in which Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez basically exuded confidence that they can still content for a playoff spot and how they still “have everything” they “need.” Considering that’s coming from two of the smarter players in football, I’ll take that seriously, and perhaps Atlanta did prove last week they can still move the ball efficiently. Yes, Julio Jones and Roddy White are missing, but the former Boston College product may have a new favorite weapon in Harry Douglas, who I believe is no fluke after that break-out performance a week ago. He’s always shown glimpses of being an upper echelon receiver, and now with the opportunity to prove himself, I think he can certainly be consistent. Perhaps most importantly, the Falcons are getting back their prized offseason acquisition in Steven Jackson, which should certain bolster a running game that suffered without him. Jacquizz Rodgers proved useful in his absence and will continue to be effective now that he’s back in his second-string role being a factor in the passing game. The Falcons D hasn’t been good this year (See: Geno Smith tearing them up), but Palmer has been a turnover machine, and just hasn’t been as efficient since Larry Fitzgerald became limited on the field. Their running game struggles, and I think Atlanta’s defensive unit finally comes through with a solid performance. Certainly, there will be turnovers here, and everything just seems to bode well for the Falcons to move to 3-4 on the season. The Cardinals, who are 3-4 right now, are absolutely not a better team and are not on the verge of hitting .500. Thus, this game belongs to the Dirty Birds (And that’s not a synonym for the NFC West residents, of course).
**Will add the rest of my bets (Teasers, Props, maybe some more Sides and Over/Unders) in a bit. Just posting these as early as possible so you have a chance to get these first few more important ones in**
(And remember, you do not have to buy the half-point or point(s) that I recommend. Other than two games where it mattered, my record would be exactly the same if I left it at the original -110 line, thus meaning you can take these bets with their normal lines and still win anyway)
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints - $86 for $55
OVER 45 (Bought 3 points) - $60 for $35
OVER 47 (Bought 1 point) - $26 for $20
*Note: This all counts as one bet; I just don’t want all of it to be on 45, since that’s -170, but I at least want the majority of it so that if it does land on that, I barely lose anything. For those unfamiliar, in the rare times I do this, the way I score these is, say if it lands on 45, the bet as a whole would officially go into the record as a push (Since that’s the majority of it), but I would still obviously count the money lost in my +/-. If it lands on 47, the bet counts as one win, but obviously I don’t get full credit for the $50 potentially won. That’s how it should be counted.
Before you whine about me buying the maximum points here, yes, I feel it’s necessary because 45 is a very key number (28-17, 31-14) in how this game could easily play out, that being in decisive fashion, in the Super Dome. It’s no secret how good the Saints are offensively, and even with Jimmy Graham limited (At least he’s playing!), there are just so many weapons that enable Drew Brees to succeed significantly so consistently that you just can’t really slow him down at all. He’s also getting my personal favorite player back today in Lance “All That And” Moore, who actually might be a sleeper in this game. Something you might not know is that over the past three years, in the game following New Orleans’ bye week, Brees’ offense averages around 45 points/game in those contests, a trend I find very notable because a team’s matchup after their bye week indicates a collective fresh mindset. That’s crucial and should play a role in this one. The key, however, could be how Thad Lewis does in his third start this season with Buffalo, and as I predicted before his first start against Cincinnati, I thought he’d do more than a fine job. I believe Fred Jackson is in for a huge game today with C.J. Spiller out, and as long as they get 17 points on the board, even against a much-improved Saints defense in 2013, that should put us in position to take this over.
Other Over/Unders
Redskins @ Broncos OVER 54 (Bought 3 points) - $42 for $25
Listen, when it’s this high, and you know as a handicapper that the worst-case scenario is going to be right around that final number, coupled with the fact that this is a small bet, then you take your chances. I don’t want to lose if it’s a 34-20-type game, which it could easily be in any high-scoring game, so I’ll buy the points here and not look back. Simple. Off the top of my head, the over has hit in every single Broncos game this year and there’s no reason for that streak to end against an almost-equally-as-game Redskins offense that has been picking up steam. I expect this one to finish around the 34-21 mark, actually.
Jets @ Bengals UNDER 44 (Bought 2.5 points) - $32 for $20
Taking a chance by buying some juice, and not even up to the ever-popular 45, but again, it’s a minimum-size bet, meaning I’m literally only spending a few extra dollars to have it where it’s at. Thus, as long as this game doesn’t end 24-21, and I certainly don’t expect it to exceed that, I can pick up a win on this game.
Atlanta Falcons +3 @ Arizona Cardinals (Best Side Bet)
Falcons +3 - $60 for $50
Falcons ML - $20 for $25
*Note: These each count as one bet, since they’re different types of bets. Falcons ML, no matter the result, will go into a new category, that being Underdog MLs, in my statistics.
Maybe it’s just me but this bet looks like it’s completely flipped, as in the Falcons are the ones who should be favored by three. The Cardinals have not looked that good recently, especially their embattled quarterback Carson Palmer who seemingly continues to regress as Arizona’s new “franchise” quarterback, while the Falcons showed everybody something interesting last week, albeit over the hapless Buccaneers, that they’re still capable of hanging around, even with some star-studded injuries. And even so, I think they can continue to roll. I managed to catch an interesting Falcons piece on NFL Network the other day in which Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez basically exuded confidence that they can still content for a playoff spot and how they still “have everything” they “need.” Considering that’s coming from two of the smarter players in football, I’ll take that seriously, and perhaps Atlanta did prove last week they can still move the ball efficiently. Yes, Julio Jones and Roddy White are missing, but the former Boston College product may have a new favorite weapon in Harry Douglas, who I believe is no fluke after that break-out performance a week ago. He’s always shown glimpses of being an upper echelon receiver, and now with the opportunity to prove himself, I think he can certainly be consistent. Perhaps most importantly, the Falcons are getting back their prized offseason acquisition in Steven Jackson, which should certain bolster a running game that suffered without him. Jacquizz Rodgers proved useful in his absence and will continue to be effective now that he’s back in his second-string role being a factor in the passing game. The Falcons D hasn’t been good this year (See: Geno Smith tearing them up), but Palmer has been a turnover machine, and just hasn’t been as efficient since Larry Fitzgerald became limited on the field. Their running game struggles, and I think Atlanta’s defensive unit finally comes through with a solid performance. Certainly, there will be turnovers here, and everything just seems to bode well for the Falcons to move to 3-4 on the season. The Cardinals, who are 3-4 right now, are absolutely not a better team and are not on the verge of hitting .500. Thus, this game belongs to the Dirty Birds (And that’s not a synonym for the NFC West residents, of course).
**Will add the rest of my bets (Teasers, Props, maybe some more Sides and Over/Unders) in a bit. Just posting these as early as possible so you have a chance to get these first few more important ones in**
