Just incase you didn't check Pinnacle is sitting at -4 strong while BetEd went to -4.5 and Sportsbetting.com is at -3.5. Def. don't think we have a "trap" game tonight but over the course of a year you can make great money going against the too good to be true lines...
With the over under, they are at 40.5 and most other books look to be at 41
With the over under, they are at 40.5 and most other books look to be at 41
Reverse line movement on the total tonight?
http://www.wagerline.com/Scores-Odds/LineMoves/index.aspx?league=NFL&eventID=25301&sportID=1
Over is getting hit about 1900 to 1000, not totally ideal based on the trap game above, but still.
http://www.wagerline.com/Scores-Odds/LineMoves/index.aspx?league=NFL&eventID=25301&sportID=1
Over is getting hit about 1900 to 1000, not totally ideal based on the trap game above, but still.
You can't look at a single book's % bet. You need to look at the public as a whole or a conglomerate public %. Just because 2000 wagers were on one side and 1500 were on the other... doesn't necessarily indicate that the public is on the side with the 2000. Other books might have the opposite action. Usually all the books follow certain books who move there lines first regardless of there action. Also books don't move their money based on number of bets on one team... they go by the amount of money actual wagered.
I forget the website URL to get good public percentage information. Ace-Ace usually posts it. Its a paid service. Sports Insight or something like that.
I forget the website URL to get good public percentage information. Ace-Ace usually posts it. Its a paid service. Sports Insight or something like that.
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RJM: I have about 6 sources (various bookmakers that give the % of bets made with them-number of bets and money) so I got that covered. I'm looking at both factors. It's very rare that 1 book is substantially different from any other.
As far as the teams go, I would add PITT, WASHINGTON, PHIL, SD (fading out), TB, CAROLINA. I agree with the teams you picked, but 1 more loss and INDY will be fading out.
As far as the teams go, I would add PITT, WASHINGTON, PHIL, SD (fading out), TB, CAROLINA. I agree with the teams you picked, but 1 more loss and INDY will be fading out.
Might be worth keeping an eye on DEN vs. MIA, right now 90% of bets (according to vegasinsider.com) are on DEN, and line hasn't moved off 3.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd...cos.cfm/date/11-02-08/time/1605/linechanges/y
One one screen VI posts the opening and current line at 3.5. On a different screen they show 3.
But either way one of the key criterion for this system is "public perception". I don't think the public perceives Denver as one of the quality teams in the NFL.
In fact I don't see any game on this week's card that might qualify as a trap game. But we will not know for sure until Sat. There is no law saying we must have a game every week.
From a thread dated around 11/21/2006. I don't have the actual link to that thread, but I did copy this particular post and saved it in my email.:toast::toast::toast:
======================================
Don Dollars' rules for Sucker Bets
<HR style="COLOR: rgb(253,222,130)" SIZE=1> Don Dollars has a thread in this forum that outlines sucker bets and how to bet against the team that suckers bet on. He has particular rules on how to detect a sucker team and to bet AGAINST the sucker team.
Here are his instructions from that thread. Don Dollars posted these in Post 284 of that thread.
Don Dollars:
Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".
Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.
Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.
So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.
On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.
These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.
RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:
BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5
In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.
Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.
WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?
You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.
This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:
THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.
This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET
Thanks tbone. That's the way to do it.
I've been using this with nationally televised college games and nationally popular college teams. Arizona covered easily over USC last weekend and Cincinnati covered over USF tonight. Pinnacle had USF -1 1/2 while everyone else had -2 1/2 so there was a Pinnacle lean.
Another thing I like to look at is not only reverse line movement but reverse line movement off a key number. The USF/Cincy game opened at USF -3 at a lot of places.
Speaking of moving the wrong way off a key number, we have that in the Eagles game this weekend. The line opened at Phi -7 in most places and is now down to -6 1/2 with 72% of people at Wagerline picking the Eagles.
A false move??
Great stuff QL. And while I know that you personally already know this, I want to chime in quick on this topic for all the newbies and inexperienced gamblers.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o><o
></o>Be careful of such Reverse Line Moves and also something called False Line Moves!!<o
></o><o
></o>False Line Movement<o
></o><o
></o>Many years ago experienced gamblers could make a decent living by tailing significant line moves (i.e., following the sharp money) if they were experienced enough know what to look for. Some guys still do this, although it is much harder to do these days. An example of such a person on this forum is Carolina Kid. Anyway, this is much harder to do now since long ago the books caught onto the fact that there were lots of line watchers tailing sharp money like sheep.
<o
></o>In order to avoid the extreme liability of being over exposed with lopsided money on a game, the books began instituting False Line Moves. Such moves are where the books falsely adjust the line in the opposite direction of what is actually occurring in an effort to purposely throw off the line watchers and people reacting to similar factors. It is not really a case of the books knowing which side will win, but rather the books wanting to ensure balanced action ~ rather than having to endure the inevitable second and third waves of tail money coming in on the same side.<o
></o><o
></o>By definition, False Line Movement is intended to give the appearance that sharp money is flooding in on the opposite side. And if need be, such False Line Moves are repeated more than once, as necessary, until the desired effect is obtained.<o
></o><o
></o>Also, a lot can be divined from watching money line percentages, which brings me to…..<o
></o><o
></o>The Money Line System<o
></o><o
></o>The ML System strictly deals with dogs. When a dog has a ML percentage that is at least 5 percent greater than their ATS percentage, it is a decent indicator that there is sharp money on that particular dog.<o
></o><o
></o>Originally the ML System was designed to have a ceiling of 37 percent of the ATS percentage (the dog can’t have more than 37 percent of the ATS money). But there is not a ceiling on the ML percentage since obviously the higher the ML percentage the better with this system.<o
></o><o
></o>As an example, if a dog has 32 percent of the ATS money, they would then need to also have 37 percent (or more) of the ML percentage to qualify for this system play.<o
></o>A false move??
Great stuff QL. And while I know that you personally already know this, I want to chime in quick on this topic for all the newbies and inexperienced gamblers.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<o
Be careful of such Reverse Line Moves and also something called False Line Moves!!<o
<o
False Line Movement<o
<o
Many years ago experienced gamblers could make a decent living by tailing significant line moves (i.e., following the sharp money) if they were experienced enough know what to look for. Some guys still do this, although it is much harder to do these days. An example of such a person on this forum is Carolina Kid. Anyway, this is much harder to do now since long ago the books caught onto the fact that there were lots of line watchers tailing sharp money like sheep.
<o
In order to avoid the extreme liability of being over exposed with lopsided money on a game, the books began instituting False Line Moves. Such moves are where the books falsely adjust the line in the opposite direction of what is actually occurring in an effort to purposely throw off the line watchers and people reacting to similar factors. It is not really a case of the books knowing which side will win, but rather the books wanting to ensure balanced action ~ rather than having to endure the inevitable second and third waves of tail money coming in on the same side.<o
<o
By definition, False Line Movement is intended to give the appearance that sharp money is flooding in on the opposite side. And if need be, such False Line Moves are repeated more than once, as necessary, until the desired effect is obtained.<o
<o
Also, a lot can be divined from watching money line percentages, which brings me to…..<o
<o
The Money Line System<o
<o
The ML System strictly deals with dogs. When a dog has a ML percentage that is at least 5 percent greater than their ATS percentage, it is a decent indicator that there is sharp money on that particular dog.<o
<o
Originally the ML System was designed to have a ceiling of 37 percent of the ATS percentage (the dog can’t have more than 37 percent of the ATS money). But there is not a ceiling on the ML percentage since obviously the higher the ML percentage the better with this system.<o
<o
As an example, if a dog has 32 percent of the ATS money, they would then need to also have 37 percent (or more) of the ML percentage to qualify for this system play.<o
Good stuff sds! I've often watched MLs for any clue of smart money, especially when I was following soccer odds. Now I have something concrete to look for.
As far as line-watching goes and the adjustment books make, this has been crossing my mind several times this last week. The direction my mind always goes is that they are less likely to make line movements when one team has a large percentage on one side. Why should they? They already have a large advantage. They don't need to fake out a much smaller percentage of line watchers. That's what makes the fades against teams with large percentages that much more accurate.
I have been waiting for a long time for this thead to pop up and someone else to recognize just how smart Don Dollars was.
The problem with the people already trying to tail this thread is that he only had ONE game a week. Just because a team is a popular powerhouse in the eyes of the public and the line seems a little weird does NOT mean you have to bet it.
The key was one game a week. Period.
The problem with the people already trying to tail this thread is that he only had ONE game a week. Just because a team is a popular powerhouse in the eyes of the public and the line seems a little weird does NOT mean you have to bet it.
The key was one game a week. Period.
I am looking at 4 games as potential traps this Sunday. All are over 70% on the favorite.
TB 76% line moved from 7.5 to 9 -----=no trap
Denver 73% line moved from 3 to 3.5 =no trap
Jax 70% the public doesn't perceive them as one of the
better teams-----------------=no trap
Phil 85% line opened at 7. Still is 7 in most places, 6.5 is around. Has the potential to be a trap, but I would like to see the line drop to 6.5 all over.
This will probably be a last minute decision depending on the way the Phil line moves.
I don't know what Pinacle's line on the game is. If they go to 6.5 that might lock it up.
Champ: You are right. 1 game a week-and don't force it.
TB 76% line moved from 7.5 to 9 -----=no trap
Denver 73% line moved from 3 to 3.5 =no trap
Jax 70% the public doesn't perceive them as one of the
better teams-----------------=no trap
Phil 85% line opened at 7. Still is 7 in most places, 6.5 is around. Has the potential to be a trap, but I would like to see the line drop to 6.5 all over.
This will probably be a last minute decision depending on the way the Phil line moves.
I don't know what Pinacle's line on the game is. If they go to 6.5 that might lock it up.
Champ: You are right. 1 game a week-and don't force it.
