The best thread ever posted on the Rx- "trap games"

[ESQAJM]

VegasDave wrote the following post in his thread


Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle +6.5

HERE is where you really put your philosophy pick pride on the line, because this one I really have trouble seeing happening.

Philadelphia's 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle's 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league's 4th best passing offense, get to face the league's 30th ranked passing defense this week.

As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league's 9th ranked rushing defense... a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle's passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in, which he isn't now due to injury), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack.

The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5.

Philadelphia should win this one by 4 TDs by the numbers; but I'll take the lowly Seahawks to cover

Basically VegasDave said he is playing this game on blind faith.

The worse a trap play looks, the better bet it is. And they can't look any worse than Seattle.

I checked Pinnacle's line and it is Phil -6.5 as well as a lot of other books. In fact, most have it at 6.5 now.

It just goes against everything I hold holy in football betting to wait for a line to drop from a key number and then take the dog. But it looks like this will be the game for this week. I will wait another day to officially confirm it. (Maybe the line will go back to 7).

 

[ESQAJM]

As of now (11/01 7:30 PM) nothing has changed from my previous info except a little more money is coming in on Seattle. At some of the sportbooks the % on Seattle is in the low 70's. A drop from the 80's.

I will pull the trigger and make Philadelphia the trap play of this week. To make it clear-the betting should be on Seattle. I took them at +7. Look for 7's, they are still around.

 

[RonMexico]

another site a guy was saying that is the sharp play of the week

 

[canabiz]

I am looking at 4 games as potential traps this Sunday. All are over 70% on the favorite.

TB 76% line moved from 7.5 to 9 -----=no trap
Denver 73% line moved from 3 to 3.5 =no trap
Jax 70% the public doesn't perceive them as one of the
better teams-----------------=no trap
Phil 85% line opened at 7. Still is 7 in most places, 6.5 is around. Has the potential to be a trap, but I would like to see the line drop to 6.5 all over.

This will probably be a last minute decision depending on the way the Phil line moves.
I don't know what Pinacle's line on the game is. If they go to 6.5 that might lock it up.


Champ: You are right. 1 game a week-and don't force it.

E where did you see Philly opened at 7 ? I use DonBest FreeOdds and it shows Philly opened as 6.5 and is now 7 across the board.

 

[ESQAJM]

E where did you see Philly opened at 7 ? I use DonBest FreeOdds and it shows Philly opened as 6.5 and is now 7 across the board.

I looked in a few spots. Some showed that it opened at 7 and some showed that it opened at 6.5.
Wagerline and Sports.com showed that it opened at 7.
Right now it is at 6.5 in most places, but 7 is still around.

 

[canabiz]

I looked in a few spots. Some showed that it opened at 7 and some showed that it opened at 6.5.
Wagerline and Sports.com showed that it opened at 7.
Right now it is at 6.5 in most places, but 7 is still around.

Have you guys decided which number is more reliable ? I think CRIS got the #s out the earliest. If Philly opened as 6.5 and the it is now 6.5 across the board, is it still considered a trap ?

 

[ESQAJM]

Have you guys decided which number is more reliable ? I think CRIS got the #s out the earliest. If Philly opened as 6.5 and the it is now 6.5 across the board, is it still considered a trap ?

I don't know which numbers are more reliable. If 6.5 was the opening line, I don't think it could be considered a trap. A trap usually moves off the opening line. Although if 70-85% of the betting was on Phil and the line didn't move, it is an indication of a possible trap. I don't know all the answers and am just feeling my way through this. This probably could be considered a borderline trap.

 

[tbonestk]

12:01AM From SI
Keep an eye on Philla & ATL tomorrow :toast:


<table id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="header" class="HeadOrangeTop"><td id="score_header" width="50">
</td> <td id="team_header" width="135">
</td> <td id="bets_header" width="45">
</td> <td id="mlpct_header" colspan="4" style="width: 160px; padding-left: 16px; padding-right: 16px;">Market
</td><td class="linebox_header" width="60"> Open
</td> <td class="linebox_header" width="60">
</td> <td class="linebox_header" width="60">
</td> <td class="linebox_header" width="60">
</td> <td class="linebox_header" width="60">
</td> <td class="linebox_header" width="60">
</td> </tr><tr class="HeadOrange" id="header"><td id="score_header" width="50">Time
</td> <td id="team_header" width="135">Team
</td> <td id="bets_header" width="45"># Bets
</td> <td id="spreadpct_header" width="40">Spread
</td><td id="mlpct_header" width="40">ML
</td><td id="parlaypct_header" width="40">Parlay
</td><td id="oupct_header" width="40">OU
</td><td width="60">CRIS
</td> <td style="background-image: url(/images/head_mid_changed.gif);" id="sbh2" class="linebox_header" onclick="HighlightColumn(this,2);" width="60">Pinnacle
</td> <td id="sbh9" class="linebox_header" onclick="HighlightColumn(this,9);" width="60">CRIS
</td> <td id="sbh18" class="linebox_header" onclick="HighlightColumn(this,18);" width="60">Olympic
</td> <td id="sbh13" class="linebox_header" onclick="HighlightColumn(this,13);" width="60">BetUS
</td> <td id="sbh12" class="linebox_header" onclick="HighlightColumn(this,12);" width="60">SIA
</td> </tr><tr id="e143682" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143682', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">409 Arizona Cardinals
410 St. Louis Rams
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">20186
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">74%
26%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">28%
72%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">69%
31%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">77%
23%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-3-110
49.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">-3-109
48.5o-111
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">-3-110
48.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">-3-110
48.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">-3-110
48.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">-3-120
48.5 -110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143679" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143679', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">407 New York Jets
408 Buffalo Bills
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">24146
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">33%
67%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">57%
43%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">49%
51%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">76%
24%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">42 -110
-6-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">41.5o-110
-5+103
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">42 -110
-5-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">41.5 -110
-5-110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">42 -110
-5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">41.5 -110
-5-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143688" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143688', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">413 Green Bay Packers
414 Tennessee Titans
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">26033
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">48%
52%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">61%
39%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">46%
54%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">80%
20%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">42.5 -110
-4.5-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">41o-108
-4.5+106
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">41 -110
-4-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">41 -110
-4.5-105
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">41 -110
-4-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">41 -110
-4.5-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143685" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143685', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">411 Detroit Lions
412 Chicago Bears
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">18984
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">43%
57%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">77%
23%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">29%
71%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">66%
34%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">44 -110
-12.5-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">43.5o-107
-12.5-106
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">44 -110
-12.5-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">43 -110
-13-110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">43 -110
-12.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">43 -110
-12.5-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143670" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143670', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">401 Jacksonville Jaguars
402 Cincinnati Bengals
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">18681
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">65%
35%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">12%
88%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">80%
20%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">69%
31%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-7-110
40.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">-9+118
40u-110
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">-7.5-110
39.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">-7.5-102
39.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">-7.5-110
39.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">-7.5-110
39.5 -110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143667" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143667', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">399 Houston Texans
400 Minnesota Vikings
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">21426
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">42%
58%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">60%
40%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">56%
44%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">51%
49%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">47 -110
-4-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">46.5 -105
-4.5-110
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">46.5 -110
-4.5-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">47 -110
-5-110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">47 -110
-4.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">47 -110
-4.5-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143676" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143676', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">405 Baltimore Ravens
406 Cleveland Browns
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">18113
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">40%
60%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">n/a
n/a
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">55%
45%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">63%
37%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">36 -110
-2.5-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">36.5u-110
-1-117
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">36 -110
-2-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">37u-115
-1-120
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-1.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-1.5-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143673" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143673', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
1:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">403 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
404 Kansas City Chiefs
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">20621
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">70%
30%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">66%
34%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">80%
20%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">69%
31%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-8-110
36 -110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">-9.5+100
36.5o-110
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">-9-110
36.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">-9-110
36.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">-9-110
36.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">-9-110
36.5 -110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143691" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143691', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
4:05P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">415 Miami Dolphins
416 Denver Broncos
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">22614
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">36%
64%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">43%
57%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">35%
65%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">40%
60%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">47.5 -110
-3-120
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">50.5o-107
-3.5-110
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">50.5 -110
-3.5-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">50 -110
-3.5-115
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">50.5 -110
-3.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">50.5 -110
-3.5-115
</td> </tr><tr id="e143700" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143700', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
4:15P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">421 Philadelphia Eagles
422 Seattle Seahawks
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">25782
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">84%
16%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">57%
43%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">87%
13%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">78%
22%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-6.5-110
44.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">-6.5-109
43o-108
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">-6.5-110
43 -110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">-7+100
42.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">-6.5-110
43 -110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">-7-115
42.5 -110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143697" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143697', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
4:15P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">419 Dallas Cowboys
420 New York Giants
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">30587
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">40%
60%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">47%
53%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">44%
56%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">78%
22%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">41 -110
-7-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">41.5o-106
-9.5+110
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">42 -110
-8.5-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">41.5 -110
-9-110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">42 -110
-8.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">41 -110
-9-110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143694" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143694', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
4:15P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">417 Atlanta Falcons
418 Oakland Raiders
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">16806
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">71%
29%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">51%
49%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">73%
27%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">40%
60%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-3+100
39 -110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">-3+115
41.5u-106
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">-3+105
41.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">-3+105
41.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">-2.5-120
41.5 -110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">-3-105
41.5 -110
</td> </tr><tr id="e143703" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143703', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><td id="score" width="50">11/2
8:15P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">423 New England Patriots
424 Indianapolis Colts
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">24660
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">51%
49%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">44%
56%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">52%
48%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">85%
15%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">45 -110
-6.5-110
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">44u-108
-6-112
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">43.5 -110
-6-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">44 -110
-6.5-110
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">44 -110
-6.5-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">44 -110
-6-110
</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="13" width="100%">NFL Football - 11/3/2008</td> </tr><tr id="e143709" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e143709', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"><td id="score" width="50">11/3
8:35P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">427 Pittsburgh Steelers
428 Washington Redskins
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">22047
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">59%
41%
</td> <td id="mlpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">69%
31%
</td> <td id="parlaypct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">69%
31%
</td> <td id="oupct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">86%
14%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">38 -110
-3+105
</td> <td id="sb2" class="open" width="60">36.5u-101
-1-126
</td> <td id="sb9" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-2-110
</td> <td id="sb18" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-1-125
</td> <td id="sb13" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-2-110
</td> <td id="sb12" class="open" width="60">36.5 -110
-2-110
</td> </tr></tbody></table>

 

[quantumleap]

I don't know which numbers are more reliable. If 6.5 was the opening line, I don't think it could be considered a trap. A trap usually moves off the opening line. Although if 70-85% of the betting was on Phil and the line didn't move, it is an indication of a possible trap. I don't know all the answers and am just feeling my way through this. This probably could be considered a borderline trap.

I use covers.com. They have the time the lines come out down to the very second:

<TABLE class=data id=ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD class=smtext2 width="40%">Pinnacle</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Odds (Line)</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>10/26/08 8:43:46 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>7/-104 (Open)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>OFF</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data id=ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD class=smtext2 width="40%">5Dimes</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Odds (Line)</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>10/27/08 11:54:29 AM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>8/-130 (Open)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>42 -110 (Open)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data id=ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD class=smtext2 width="40%">BookMaker</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Odds (Line)</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>10/26/08 8:45:09 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>6.5/-110 (Open)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>44.5 -110 (Open)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data id=ucLineHistory_tblLineHistory cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ecece4><TD class=smtext2 width="40%">BetCRIS</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Odds (Line)</TD><TD class=datahl2c align=middle width="30%">Over/Under (Total)</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=smtext2>10/26/08 8:49:23 PM</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>7/-110 (Open)</TD><TD class=smtext2 align=middle>43.5 -110 (Open)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I also use sbrlines.com for lines-

Pinnacle:
10/26 08:41PM: -7 -104 / +7 -104

BookMaker:
10/26 08:42PM: -6½ -110 / +6½ -110

TheGreek:
10/26 08:20PM: -6 -110 / +6 -110

5dimes:
10/26 08:48PM: -7½ +105 / +7½ -125

 

[ESQAJM]

Quantum: Big range of opening numbers. The only other thing that I could add is that one of Don Dollars rules was to watch what Pinnacle was doing. Who do they want you to bet on? Being that they have a 6.5 line means they want you to bet on Phil. So overall I would have to say this game qualifies as a trap.

 

[Mistermj]

FWIW...my computer pick system has Seattle +6.5 as one of its 3 best picks of the week.

The computer program uses emotional angles that I have quantified over the years...and its lit up for Seattle this week.

It's nice to see another method agree...because it sure doesn't feel right.

But as I always say...Vegas has a way of making the winners feel uncomfortable.

Good luck!

 

[quantumleap]

Quantum: Big range of opening numbers. The only other thing that I could add is that one of Don Dollars rules was to watch what Pinnacle was doing. Who do they want you to bet on? Being that they have a 6.5 line means they want you to bet on Phil. So overall I would have to say this game qualifies as a trap.

I agree about watching what Pinnacle was doing and they opened with a -7 and went to a -6 1/2. Not only is that a reverse line movement but it's a reverse line movement off a key number.

I think rules #1, #2 and #5 are somewhat related. The common principle that you and Mistermj mention is that it's hard to believe Seattle will win. That is reflected in #1 (too good to be true), #2 (high percentage of bettors on the sucker team) and #5 (what is the public's perception). I think we all agree that Philly is the public pick.

I'm waiting until game time to make my decision in case line movements change between now and then.

 

[quantumleap]

FWIW...my computer pick system has Seattle +6.5 as one of its 3 best picks of the week.

The computer program uses emotional angles that I have quantified over the years...and its lit up for Seattle this week.

It's nice to see another method agree...because it sure doesn't feel right.

But as I always say...Vegas has a way of making the winners feel uncomfortable.

Good luck!

That's good to know. Seattle had a rough start to their season until they went in to SF and handled the Niners easily. They are now starting to feel confident about winning.

Philly will be travelling across the country to play Seattle at home.

 

[ESQAJM]

Hey Guys: This thread is the first time I ever did anything like this after years of being on the RX. It was an absolute pleasure talking to all of you guys and getting intelligent information about the game from all different angles and aspects. There were no stupid or bashing comments and everyone had something valuable to add. Now all we have to do is win.

But, whether the play wins or losses, I'll do a thread next week also looking for the "trap" play.

 

[quinnsft34]

GL guys. Like what was said in this thread by everyone. If you don't feel it don't force it. I can see how Seattle could be the play but I don't trust Seneca Wallace for my money so I am sitting this one out. I think the Eagles D will be hard on him today.

 

[midman2161]

Remember, the Seahawks might have the best homefield in football. That will likely help Seneca and I can see them keeping this one close.

 

[Michelangelo]

Nice job guys.

I agree that Seattle is the Don Dolars play.

Another I was considering as a Don Dollars play was Kansas City. Looks like they are off and running.

ESQAJM, Thanks for revisiting this. If you're gonna do it weekly (which I fully endorse) I think it would be tremendously helpful to everyone if you could post those Don Dollars rules at the top of each weekly thread.

And here's to you Don Dollars if you happen to be lurking.

Best of luck guys.

 

[quantumleap]

I was looking at the Pinnacle lean before the early games. I noticed Pinnacle had Minnesota -6 1/2 +102 while the other books had -6 and -5 1/2 so the bet would be Minnesota.

Also, Pinnacle had Chicago at -12 1/2 while most of the other shops had it at -13 so the bet would be Detroit.

Speaking of Pinnacle lean, they currently have Philly at -7 +100 or else -6 1/2 -117. The other books have it at -7 +100 as well so I'm not sure the lean is in play here.

 

[quantumleap]

I was looking at the Pinnacle lean before the early games. I noticed Pinnacle had Minnesota -6 1/2 +102 while the other books had -6 and -5 1/2 so the bet would be Minnesota.

Also, Pinnacle had Chicago at -12 1/2 while most of the other shops had it at -13 so the bet would be Detroit.

Speaking of Pinnacle lean, they currently have Philly at -7 +100 or else -6 1/2 -117. The other books have it at -7 +100 as well so I'm not sure the lean is in play here.

Minnesota and Detroit both win. In the late games we have Pinnacle posting the NYG at -8 while everyone else has -8 1/2 or -9 so Pinnacle is inviting people to take the Giants. I'm going to put some down on Dallas +9 at TheGreek.

 

[ajreeb]

Missed today, but worth keeping track of in weeks to come. Thanks, ESQAJM.