Well guys, it didn't work out and I'm ashamed to admit that I didn't have confidence in the play. First I only bet Seattle for 1/2 a unit and secondly I hedged out at half time by taking Phil -3 for the 2nd half. So I broke even on the bet (less the -120 juice for the 2nd half bet)
I'll give it a try again next week.
I'll give it a try again next week.
another guy who fades the public % also had oak and st louis........sometimes I feel these are hard to gage last week the top 4 went 2-2 I think it is a good idea but nothing is certain............ I also can't stand the terms sharp and square I prefer winning bet and losing bet I don't care what I am called I just want to cash my ticket
Went back to look over everything. And I don't think RULE#4 came into play in the Philly game. Pinny was at PHI-7 about 4 hours before kickoff, as was just about every book.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/offshore/line-movement/eagles-@-seahawks.cfm/date/11-02-08
And Don seemed to give a lot of stock in his opinion about the Pinnacle line being one of the crucial elements for a "sucker" or "trap" play. (They did offer WASH-1 last night while every else had them at -2 or -2.5)
So I think Rules 1,2 and 3 played out, but not 4 in this case.
AJ: I didn't notice the change in the Pinny line Sunday morning. I think I made the decision that this was the trap play of the week too early. If I would have seen the jump in the line Sunday morning I wouldn't have called it. There would not have been a play for the week. You are right in that Don Dollars gave the Pinny line a lot of consideration in deciding on his pick. From now on I wouldn't make the decision until Sunday morning.
Okay Fellows, anyone have any insight on the following:
Don put a lot of emphasis on Pinny lines. They do sometimes offer a different line then other books but the juice reflects that.I get his angle but I am still trying to understand the varying juice.
I think the Browns/Broncos game is a good example of my question.
Most places have the line at Browns -3 ranging ( on average from -110 to -120 juice) Pinny opened at -3 -109 and now sits at -3.5 with +112
So do they want me to take the Browns by putting the +112 or are they putting the heavier juice on the Broncos knowing most people expect a big bounceback game from the Broncos and will bite on the extra half point??
How should i read it if they were to put:
-3.0 -120 while most sat at -3 -110
And lets use Maryland /V.T tonight( I know this one has moved because V.T is going to third string Q.B who started the season at #2 on depth chart)
Line opened -3.5 -105 , now most books have it at -3 -110 while Pinny has -2.5 -117.
Let's say they had -2.5 +110 while most had it at -2 -110 . Is there really a difference or sdoes the juice offset the point? to me it just seems they are making you buy the hook
From reading this the numbers would say to tkae Maryland and the Browns correct?
Does my question make sense or am I just over ANALizing ?
Don put a lot of emphasis on Pinny lines. They do sometimes offer a different line then other books but the juice reflects that.I get his angle but I am still trying to understand the varying juice.
I think the Browns/Broncos game is a good example of my question.
Most places have the line at Browns -3 ranging ( on average from -110 to -120 juice) Pinny opened at -3 -109 and now sits at -3.5 with +112
So do they want me to take the Browns by putting the +112 or are they putting the heavier juice on the Broncos knowing most people expect a big bounceback game from the Broncos and will bite on the extra half point??
How should i read it if they were to put:
-3.0 -120 while most sat at -3 -110
And lets use Maryland /V.T tonight( I know this one has moved because V.T is going to third string Q.B who started the season at #2 on depth chart)
Line opened -3.5 -105 , now most books have it at -3 -110 while Pinny has -2.5 -117.
Let's say they had -2.5 +110 while most had it at -2 -110 . Is there really a difference or sdoes the juice offset the point? to me it just seems they are making you buy the hook
From reading this the numbers would say to tkae Maryland and the Browns correct?
Does my question make sense or am I just over ANALizing ?
Here's the Pinnacle lines as of 9am EST
<table class="rt_railbox_border2" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">11/05</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">7:59pm</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-164 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> DEN+154 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-3.5 +112 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE+3.5 -120 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -103 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -107 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-1.5 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> DEN+1.5 </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">11/05</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">10:10pm</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-164 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> DEN+154 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-3.5 +112 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE+3.5 -120 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -103 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -107 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-1.5 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> DEN+1.5 </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> <td class="bg2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap">11/06</td> <td class="bg2" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">8:29am</td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-160 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> DEN+150 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE-3 -108 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> CLE+3 +100 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -103 </td> <td class="bg2" nowrap="nowrap"> 46 -107 </td></tr></tbody></table>
As you can see it's gone back down to CLE-3 -108.
I may be wrong, so anyone feel free to correct me, but at the 11/05 10:10pm line Pinny is slightly encouraging you to take DEN+3.5 since most other lines at the time had DEN+3, so as Don wrote, anyone line shopping for Denver is going to put their money down at Pinny. However, the extra juice (-120), kind of sucks the value of the favorable line down a bit, so they certainly aren't begging for Denver money.
Making Cleveland (according to Don) the play in this situation.
Actually the biggest factor to consider under Don's rules is the movement of the spread vs the % of betting on a team. The situation for this game is that the % is fairly even between the 2 teams so they are not even close to becoming a play. - As someone in an earlier post said "Don't force your plays-they must hit on all the points, not 3 out of 4"
Shambler: You are right. You are over analyzing it to death. And like I said before, the Pinny line is only 1 of the factors.
I took a look at week 10 for possible trap games. There are not many prospects out there. I only saw 5 games with more than 70% on 1 side:
Miami
Baltimore
Giants
Arizona
Carolina
None of these had the necessary line movements so far.
Shambler: You are right. You are over analyzing it to death. And like I said before, the Pinny line is only 1 of the factors.
I took a look at week 10 for possible trap games. There are not many prospects out there. I only saw 5 games with more than 70% on 1 side:
Miami
Baltimore
Giants
Arizona
Carolina
None of these had the necessary line movements so far.
