Ben Burns
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Detroit Lions Premium Play
Play Title *15-4 YTD* Burns' AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR! (Det/GB!)
Play Selected Point Spread: 10.5/101
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Its become a Thanksgiving tradition for the Lions to get blown out every Thanksgiving. With the Packers off back to back double-digit victories and with the Lions off a very hard fought game vs. the lowly Browns, most will be expecting "more of the same" this season. In my opinion, recent Thanksgivings have little bearing on this afternoon's game though and that all the "anti-Detroit sentiment" has given us excellent line value with the home underdog. If anything, the recent Thanksgiving losses should serve to provide the Lions with some extra motivation. While many will expect another blowout, I feel that this year will be different and I expect the Lions to be competitive the entire way. The Lions' defense admittedly isn't among the best in the league. I noted that last week when successfully playing on them to go 'over' vs. the Browns. The offense is more capable than many realize though and is coming off a break-out game. Of course, most of you have probably seen the hit on QB Stafford at the end of that 'thriller.' That was a bigtime shot and the rookie is currently not expected to get the start. Detroit coach Jim Schwartz had this to say: "It's unlikely that he's going to play, but we'll see..." Last week's performance was more than just Stafford though. It was a big effort from the entire offense. I have confidence that Culpepper can get the job done and that the team will rally behind him. He'll certainly have plenty of motivation. On the other side of the ball, the Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Yes, the Packers did look pretty good in beating the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. However, they were catching Dallas in a great spot and that was at Lambeau. They weren't quite as impressive vs. the 49'ers last week, as they allowed the 49'ers to battle back from an early deficit and make a game of it. Green Bay would win by only six. That was also at Lambeau. The Packers are just 2-2 on the road (0-1 in divisional road games) and those two wins came against Cleveland and St. Louis. Both those teams have worse records than the Lions. Currently, they're a combined 2-18. I played against the Packers in their most recent road game and they lost outright to a Bucs team which was starting a brand new QB and which had previously been winless. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-7 SU its last nine road games, dating back to last season. While most know of Stafford's injury, it should be noted that the Packers are dealing with some key injuries themselves. As you know, the Lions have been pretty bad for a number of years. Yet, despite the fact that this is a much improved team, this is by far the most points that they've ever been getting for a home game vs. the Packers, this entire millennium. Considering the Packers' trouble on the road and trouble protecting their quarterback, I believe that's providing us with excellent value. I look for the revenge-minded Lions to be far more competitive than most are expecting. 7* Annihilator
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Under Premium Play
Play Title **9** BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! (7-1 RUN!) *DET/GB
Play Selected Total: 47.5/-105
I'm playing on GB and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams were involved in very high-scoring games last week. Those results have helped cause this afternoon's o/u number to be much higher than it would have been otherwise. I played on the Lions to finish 'over' the total last week, so was thrilled to see all the points. (The Lions won 38-37) I'll admit. I didn't really anticipate that high-scoring of a game. I was just hoping for a final combined score somewhere in the 38-50 range. That 75-point outburst has worked in our favor this week though. So, what caused last week's Detroit/Clev. game to result in a shootout? Well, with both teams playing a 'meaningless' game vs. a non-conference opponent, there was a bigger priority on offense than there was on defense and both teams were able to be extra aggressive. This week, however, the Lions will be playing a divisional game vs. an opponent that is still very much in the playoff race. Big difference. Note that the Lions have seen both their non-conf. games finish above the total but that the UNDER is 5-3 in their games vs. teams from the NFC. As for the Packers, yes, their game was also high-scoring. (30-24 GB.) However, a closer look show that the Packers had only allowed three points in the first half. In other words, it could have easily been lower-scoring. The previous week, the Packers limited Dallas to a mere seven points. Yes, the Packers will be missing a couple of key defensive players. However, the same can be said of the Detroit offense, which will likely be without QB Stafford and possibly also without receiver Johnson. Note that the Packers completely shutout the Lions (26-0) when the teams faced each other back in October. The Lions would finish with less than 150 total yards of offense. Here, they'll face a GB defense which is allowing a mere 272 yards per game on the road and which has held three of its last six opponents to a touchdown or less. The Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Whether its a banged-up Stafford or whether its Culpepper (more likely) I expect the Lions to take a conservative approach, running the ball regularly and attempting to keep the Green Bay offense off the field, as much as possible. Including the earlier loss at Lambeau, the Lions are averaging only 11.7 points in their four divisional games. Three of those games fell below the total, including the only one which was played here at Detroit. Looking back to last season and we find that each of Detroit's last three divisional home games have fallen below the total. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous total. *9 Blue Chip
Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:15 PM EST Dallas Cowboys Premium Play
Play Title Ben Burns' *10* 2009 Turkey Day ROAST! (15-4 YTD!)
Play Selected Point Spread: -13.5/-106
I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I successfully played on the Raiders in last week's upset win vs. Cincinnati. This is a much tougher matchup for them though. Last week, they were catching a Bengals team which was "patting itself on the back" and which had traveled all the way to the West Coast. This week, the Raiders will be the ones who were forced to travel and they'll be catching a very capable Dallas team, one which has recently received a real 'wake up call.' The fact that the Raiders played on the West Coast last week is extremely significant. The travel is particularly tough, given that this is such a short week. Indeed, the Cowboys played an early game here at Dallas last Sunday. The Raiders, on the other hand, played a late afternoon game at Oakland. That was just on the 22nd and this game is on the 26th. You may recall that last Thanksgiving Day the Cowboys were also fortunate to catch a West Coast team playing on a short week. The Cowboys were off a home win vs. the 49'ers, so didn't have to travel. Their opponent was the Seahawks, who had played a late Sunday afternoon game in the Pacific Northwest. Playing on a short week, Seattle was no match. The Cowboys rolled to a 34-9 blowout win. While the Cowboys offense has struggled in recent weeks (and may be without Witten) they're still highly capable. Dallas still ranks fifth in the league in total offense. They're looking for a breakout performance and a big win on National TV will be a great place to start. Receiver Patrick Crayton was quoted as saying: "We know we've got to start picking it up. Not just for our fans, but for ourselves too. It's going to be good for us to come out Thursday and be sharp and be crisp. It's got to look like we are really doing something out there." Even if it weren't such a taxing schedule, the Raiders are in over their heads. With outright wins vs. Cincy and Philly, they've proven that they can compete at home. The same cannot be said of their performance on the road. In four road games, the Raiders have gone 1-3 SU/ATS and they've been outscored by a whopping 26.7 to 10.5 margin. In fact, a look at the total yardage of those games shows that the Raiders may be fortunate that they're "only" getting outscored by 16.2 points on the road. Opponents are gaining an average of 391.7 yards in those games. Oakland, on the other hand, is managing an average of only 156.8 yards in its four road games. That's truly pathetic. In fact, Oakland's lone road win came at KC and the Raiders were dominated statistically in that game. Now, they'll be facing a Dallas defense which has held four straight opponents to 17 points or less, allowing an average of only 14 in those games. Now Gradkowski has to deal with DeMarcus Ware and co... Dallas QB Tony Romo had some back stiffness after/during last game. He's reportedly feeling much better though and he's been terrific on Thanksgiving. In fact, he's 3-0 on Turkey Day with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He's also boasts an outstanding 71.4 completion percentage in those games. Despite failing to cover last week, the Cowboys are still 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS their last six November home games. I look for them to improve on those numbers and make a statement in this one. *10 Thanksgiving Roast
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Under Premium Play
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Detroit Lions Premium Play
Play Title *15-4 YTD* Burns' AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR! (Det/GB!)
Play Selected Point Spread: 10.5/101
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Its become a Thanksgiving tradition for the Lions to get blown out every Thanksgiving. With the Packers off back to back double-digit victories and with the Lions off a very hard fought game vs. the lowly Browns, most will be expecting "more of the same" this season. In my opinion, recent Thanksgivings have little bearing on this afternoon's game though and that all the "anti-Detroit sentiment" has given us excellent line value with the home underdog. If anything, the recent Thanksgiving losses should serve to provide the Lions with some extra motivation. While many will expect another blowout, I feel that this year will be different and I expect the Lions to be competitive the entire way. The Lions' defense admittedly isn't among the best in the league. I noted that last week when successfully playing on them to go 'over' vs. the Browns. The offense is more capable than many realize though and is coming off a break-out game. Of course, most of you have probably seen the hit on QB Stafford at the end of that 'thriller.' That was a bigtime shot and the rookie is currently not expected to get the start. Detroit coach Jim Schwartz had this to say: "It's unlikely that he's going to play, but we'll see..." Last week's performance was more than just Stafford though. It was a big effort from the entire offense. I have confidence that Culpepper can get the job done and that the team will rally behind him. He'll certainly have plenty of motivation. On the other side of the ball, the Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Yes, the Packers did look pretty good in beating the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. However, they were catching Dallas in a great spot and that was at Lambeau. They weren't quite as impressive vs. the 49'ers last week, as they allowed the 49'ers to battle back from an early deficit and make a game of it. Green Bay would win by only six. That was also at Lambeau. The Packers are just 2-2 on the road (0-1 in divisional road games) and those two wins came against Cleveland and St. Louis. Both those teams have worse records than the Lions. Currently, they're a combined 2-18. I played against the Packers in their most recent road game and they lost outright to a Bucs team which was starting a brand new QB and which had previously been winless. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-7 SU its last nine road games, dating back to last season. While most know of Stafford's injury, it should be noted that the Packers are dealing with some key injuries themselves. As you know, the Lions have been pretty bad for a number of years. Yet, despite the fact that this is a much improved team, this is by far the most points that they've ever been getting for a home game vs. the Packers, this entire millennium. Considering the Packers' trouble on the road and trouble protecting their quarterback, I believe that's providing us with excellent value. I look for the revenge-minded Lions to be far more competitive than most are expecting. 7* Annihilator
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Under Premium Play
Play Title **9** BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! (7-1 RUN!) *DET/GB
Play Selected Total: 47.5/-105
I'm playing on GB and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams were involved in very high-scoring games last week. Those results have helped cause this afternoon's o/u number to be much higher than it would have been otherwise. I played on the Lions to finish 'over' the total last week, so was thrilled to see all the points. (The Lions won 38-37) I'll admit. I didn't really anticipate that high-scoring of a game. I was just hoping for a final combined score somewhere in the 38-50 range. That 75-point outburst has worked in our favor this week though. So, what caused last week's Detroit/Clev. game to result in a shootout? Well, with both teams playing a 'meaningless' game vs. a non-conference opponent, there was a bigger priority on offense than there was on defense and both teams were able to be extra aggressive. This week, however, the Lions will be playing a divisional game vs. an opponent that is still very much in the playoff race. Big difference. Note that the Lions have seen both their non-conf. games finish above the total but that the UNDER is 5-3 in their games vs. teams from the NFC. As for the Packers, yes, their game was also high-scoring. (30-24 GB.) However, a closer look show that the Packers had only allowed three points in the first half. In other words, it could have easily been lower-scoring. The previous week, the Packers limited Dallas to a mere seven points. Yes, the Packers will be missing a couple of key defensive players. However, the same can be said of the Detroit offense, which will likely be without QB Stafford and possibly also without receiver Johnson. Note that the Packers completely shutout the Lions (26-0) when the teams faced each other back in October. The Lions would finish with less than 150 total yards of offense. Here, they'll face a GB defense which is allowing a mere 272 yards per game on the road and which has held three of its last six opponents to a touchdown or less. The Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Whether its a banged-up Stafford or whether its Culpepper (more likely) I expect the Lions to take a conservative approach, running the ball regularly and attempting to keep the Green Bay offense off the field, as much as possible. Including the earlier loss at Lambeau, the Lions are averaging only 11.7 points in their four divisional games. Three of those games fell below the total, including the only one which was played here at Detroit. Looking back to last season and we find that each of Detroit's last three divisional home games have fallen below the total. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous total. *9 Blue Chip
Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:15 PM EST Dallas Cowboys Premium Play
Play Title Ben Burns' *10* 2009 Turkey Day ROAST! (15-4 YTD!)
Play Selected Point Spread: -13.5/-106
I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I successfully played on the Raiders in last week's upset win vs. Cincinnati. This is a much tougher matchup for them though. Last week, they were catching a Bengals team which was "patting itself on the back" and which had traveled all the way to the West Coast. This week, the Raiders will be the ones who were forced to travel and they'll be catching a very capable Dallas team, one which has recently received a real 'wake up call.' The fact that the Raiders played on the West Coast last week is extremely significant. The travel is particularly tough, given that this is such a short week. Indeed, the Cowboys played an early game here at Dallas last Sunday. The Raiders, on the other hand, played a late afternoon game at Oakland. That was just on the 22nd and this game is on the 26th. You may recall that last Thanksgiving Day the Cowboys were also fortunate to catch a West Coast team playing on a short week. The Cowboys were off a home win vs. the 49'ers, so didn't have to travel. Their opponent was the Seahawks, who had played a late Sunday afternoon game in the Pacific Northwest. Playing on a short week, Seattle was no match. The Cowboys rolled to a 34-9 blowout win. While the Cowboys offense has struggled in recent weeks (and may be without Witten) they're still highly capable. Dallas still ranks fifth in the league in total offense. They're looking for a breakout performance and a big win on National TV will be a great place to start. Receiver Patrick Crayton was quoted as saying: "We know we've got to start picking it up. Not just for our fans, but for ourselves too. It's going to be good for us to come out Thursday and be sharp and be crisp. It's got to look like we are really doing something out there." Even if it weren't such a taxing schedule, the Raiders are in over their heads. With outright wins vs. Cincy and Philly, they've proven that they can compete at home. The same cannot be said of their performance on the road. In four road games, the Raiders have gone 1-3 SU/ATS and they've been outscored by a whopping 26.7 to 10.5 margin. In fact, a look at the total yardage of those games shows that the Raiders may be fortunate that they're "only" getting outscored by 16.2 points on the road. Opponents are gaining an average of 391.7 yards in those games. Oakland, on the other hand, is managing an average of only 156.8 yards in its four road games. That's truly pathetic. In fact, Oakland's lone road win came at KC and the Raiders were dominated statistically in that game. Now, they'll be facing a Dallas defense which has held four straight opponents to 17 points or less, allowing an average of only 14 in those games. Now Gradkowski has to deal with DeMarcus Ware and co... Dallas QB Tony Romo had some back stiffness after/during last game. He's reportedly feeling much better though and he's been terrific on Thanksgiving. In fact, he's 3-0 on Turkey Day with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He's also boasts an outstanding 71.4 completion percentage in those games. Despite failing to cover last week, the Cowboys are still 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS their last six November home games. I look for them to improve on those numbers and make a statement in this one. *10 Thanksgiving Roast
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Under Premium Play
Kavitch aka Gamebreaker
Thursday, November 26, 2009
8:20 PM
Denver
NY Giants
Spread Pick
Picked Denver with spread of +6 (-109)
100 units were wagered.
Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.
4:15 PM
Dallas
Oakland
Spread Pick
Picked Dallas with spread of -13.5 (-105)
100 units were wagered.
A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now travelling on a short week after pulling the upset. Travelling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas for a 3* regular play.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
8:20 PM
Denver
NY Giants
Spread Pick
Picked Denver with spread of +6 (-109)
100 units were wagered.
Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.
4:15 PM
Dallas
Oakland
Spread Pick
Picked Dallas with spread of -13.5 (-105)
100 units were wagered.
A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now travelling on a short week after pulling the upset. Travelling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas for a 3* regular play.
