THE GOLD SHEET
Green Bay 34 - DETROIT 17—Expect a more competitive showing from
Detroit than first meeting at Lambeau October 18, when Lions were minus both
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson and were down to 3rd-string QB Drew
Stanton at the end of 26-0 G.B beatdown. Stafford (check left shoulder injury) led
last week’s last-second win over Browns. But Detroit (no covers last 5) not taking
part in the recent renaissance of NFL underdogs. Dom Capers’ Packer 3-4
defense likely to cause fits for Lion OL, as it did last month, and G.B. + 14 in
turnover margin. TV-FOX
(09-G. BAY 26-Det. 0...G.23-10 G.30/107 D.18/78 G.29/37/1/328 D.11/25/3/71 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. Bay 48-DET. 25...G.19-15 G.30/123 D.12/49 G.24/38/0/324 D.23/45/3/262 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. BAY 31-Det. 21...G.20-19 G.27/211 D.29/96 G.21/31/0/273 D.22/42/2/220 G.1 D.0)
(09-G. BAY -14 26-0; 08-G. Bay -3 48-25, G. BAY -10' 31-21...SR: Green Bay 89-64-7)
DALLAS 22 - Oakland 13—While the NFL isn’t figure skating, style points
mean something in Dallas, and Jerry Jones must be wondering if he can justify
promoting his unofficial “coach in waiting”—offensive coordinator Jason
Garrett—to Wade Phillips’ hot seat after the Cowboys shot mostly blanks for the
second straight game last Sunday vs. Washington. Oakland yet to win (or cover)
in back-to-back contests TY. But the upset of Cincy confirms positives of the
switch to functional QB Bruce Gradkowski (2 TDP last week) over the
depressingly ineffective JaMarcus Russell. Raiders earning some covers on
road lately (7-5 vs. line last 12). TV—CBS
(2009 Preseason: Oakland -2' beat Dallas 31-10 at Oakland)
(05-OAKLAND -3 19-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)
*NY Giants 23 - DENVER 13—It’s officially time to hit the panic button in
Denver, as hobbled Kyle Orton (deemed more worthy by HC McDaniels on a bum
ankle than the misfiring Chris Simms) was unable to execute the Bronco ballcontrol
offense as effectively as he did the first six weeks of season, with Mike
Nolan’s defense becoming overworked and four straight losses the result. N.Y.
(no covers last 5) little more successful lately, and the availability of slamming
Brandon Jacobs a concern. But Eli’s career-high 384 YP vs. Falcons indicates
recent “bye” did his sore foot some good. Denver currently not likely to take
advantage of the leaks in G-Men defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-NY GIANTS -2 24-23...SR: NY Giants 6-4)
Texas 35 - TEXAS A&M 20—Texas has the Big XII title game on tap Dec.
5. But it is sacrilegious in Austin to even consider that the Longhorns would
overlook the Aggies. A&M has covered the last two meetings in College
Station. This year, Mike Sherman’s youth-laden team has played with great
confidence at home, going 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 vs. the spread, and scoring 40 ppg
(albeit vs. mostly marginal opposition). QB Jerrod Johnson (24 TDs, 5 ints.)
has the receivers and can keep Ags within earshot if he keeps his poise. A&M’s
Von Miller leads the nation in sacks with 15½. TV—ESPN
(08-TEXAS 49-Tex. A&M 9...U.24-12 U.43/216 A.22/M24 U.24/30/0/320 A.20/35/0/269 U.0 A.1)
(08-TEXAS -35 49-9 07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7...SR: Texas 74-36-5)
Green Bay 34 - DETROIT 17—Expect a more competitive showing from
Detroit than first meeting at Lambeau October 18, when Lions were minus both
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson and were down to 3rd-string QB Drew
Stanton at the end of 26-0 G.B beatdown. Stafford (check left shoulder injury) led
last week’s last-second win over Browns. But Detroit (no covers last 5) not taking
part in the recent renaissance of NFL underdogs. Dom Capers’ Packer 3-4
defense likely to cause fits for Lion OL, as it did last month, and G.B. + 14 in
turnover margin. TV-FOX
(09-G. BAY 26-Det. 0...G.23-10 G.30/107 D.18/78 G.29/37/1/328 D.11/25/3/71 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. Bay 48-DET. 25...G.19-15 G.30/123 D.12/49 G.24/38/0/324 D.23/45/3/262 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. BAY 31-Det. 21...G.20-19 G.27/211 D.29/96 G.21/31/0/273 D.22/42/2/220 G.1 D.0)
(09-G. BAY -14 26-0; 08-G. Bay -3 48-25, G. BAY -10' 31-21...SR: Green Bay 89-64-7)
DALLAS 22 - Oakland 13—While the NFL isn’t figure skating, style points
mean something in Dallas, and Jerry Jones must be wondering if he can justify
promoting his unofficial “coach in waiting”—offensive coordinator Jason
Garrett—to Wade Phillips’ hot seat after the Cowboys shot mostly blanks for the
second straight game last Sunday vs. Washington. Oakland yet to win (or cover)
in back-to-back contests TY. But the upset of Cincy confirms positives of the
switch to functional QB Bruce Gradkowski (2 TDP last week) over the
depressingly ineffective JaMarcus Russell. Raiders earning some covers on
road lately (7-5 vs. line last 12). TV—CBS
(2009 Preseason: Oakland -2' beat Dallas 31-10 at Oakland)
(05-OAKLAND -3 19-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)
*NY Giants 23 - DENVER 13—It’s officially time to hit the panic button in
Denver, as hobbled Kyle Orton (deemed more worthy by HC McDaniels on a bum
ankle than the misfiring Chris Simms) was unable to execute the Bronco ballcontrol
offense as effectively as he did the first six weeks of season, with Mike
Nolan’s defense becoming overworked and four straight losses the result. N.Y.
(no covers last 5) little more successful lately, and the availability of slamming
Brandon Jacobs a concern. But Eli’s career-high 384 YP vs. Falcons indicates
recent “bye” did his sore foot some good. Denver currently not likely to take
advantage of the leaks in G-Men defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-NY GIANTS -2 24-23...SR: NY Giants 6-4)
Texas 35 - TEXAS A&M 20—Texas has the Big XII title game on tap Dec.
5. But it is sacrilegious in Austin to even consider that the Longhorns would
overlook the Aggies. A&M has covered the last two meetings in College
Station. This year, Mike Sherman’s youth-laden team has played with great
confidence at home, going 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 vs. the spread, and scoring 40 ppg
(albeit vs. mostly marginal opposition). QB Jerrod Johnson (24 TDs, 5 ints.)
has the receivers and can keep Ags within earshot if he keeps his poise. A&M’s
Von Miller leads the nation in sacks with 15½. TV—ESPN
(08-TEXAS 49-Tex. A&M 9...U.24-12 U.43/216 A.22/M24 U.24/30/0/320 A.20/35/0/269 U.0 A.1)
(08-TEXAS -35 49-9 07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7...SR: Texas 74-36-5)
NC POWERSWEEP
Green Bay at DETROIT - Thursday - The Packers shutout the Lions 26-0 as a 14 pt HF in the previous
meeting moving to 6-0-1 ATS in the series. GB had a 435-149 yd edge as DET was very beat up playing
without Stafford, Calvin Johnson & 3 defensive starters. GB is only 2-6 ATS on Thursdays & 1-3 ATS vs
DET with a 26-25 avg score on Thanksgiving. GB is 2-1 ATS on the road vs losing teams TY (STL/CLE/
TB) with a 422-251 yd edge with the loss to TB due to a hangover after the MIN loss. DET has brought in
8 DB’s since the season opener for the #32 pass defense that’s worse than LY’s allowing 275 ypg (70%)
24-6 vs 232 ypg (68%) with a 25-4 ratio. DET is 1-6 ATS TY as a DD dog & GB’s travel issues aren’t that
bad as they’ve been at home the L2W. GB however will be without DE/OLB Kampman & CB Harris to
serious knee injuries here. Schwartz helped the Titans wreck the Lions LY on Thanksgiving 47-10 as an
11 pt AF as their DC & know has to motivate TY’s unit that gave up 37 pts to CLE LW. There is no line
here as Stafford injured his non-throwing shoulder LW but he took another step towards winning over
the team for 2010 as he threw the game winning TD. Turkey Day Play: OVER
Oakland at DALLAS - Thursday - This is only the 3rd time OAK has been in a mid-season Thursday
game (0-2 SU & ATS) but they did play SD in one LY so they have an idea of the practice & travel
schedule. DAL has won & covered 4 straight Thursdays by a 36-12 avg score. DAL has big stat
edges with the #5 & #16 units (-4 TO’s) vs OAK’s #32 & #24 units (-7 TO’s). Romo suffered a knee
bruise LW vs WAS & he only passed for 158 yds (56%) with a 1-1 ratio vs a WAS defense without DT
Haynesworth. While it wasn’t pretty he did lead the team to a win when it counted most with a 60/9pl
drive. OAK decided to see if it was the talent surrounding the QB or the QB LW as they benched
Russell & went with Gradkowski vs CIN. Gradkowski (183 yds 50% 2-1) gave the team enough spark
& athleticism to steal a win from CIN who fumbled a KR in the fi nal :30 to set up OAK’s game winning
FG. OAK has been outgained 392-159 TY on the road. Jones will make this game a priority after
the L2 offensive stinkers esp since this will be the only football game TV on in the nation & he has a
shiny new stadium to show off. Turkey Day Play: Dallas
Green Bay at DETROIT - Thursday - The Packers shutout the Lions 26-0 as a 14 pt HF in the previous
meeting moving to 6-0-1 ATS in the series. GB had a 435-149 yd edge as DET was very beat up playing
without Stafford, Calvin Johnson & 3 defensive starters. GB is only 2-6 ATS on Thursdays & 1-3 ATS vs
DET with a 26-25 avg score on Thanksgiving. GB is 2-1 ATS on the road vs losing teams TY (STL/CLE/
TB) with a 422-251 yd edge with the loss to TB due to a hangover after the MIN loss. DET has brought in
8 DB’s since the season opener for the #32 pass defense that’s worse than LY’s allowing 275 ypg (70%)
24-6 vs 232 ypg (68%) with a 25-4 ratio. DET is 1-6 ATS TY as a DD dog & GB’s travel issues aren’t that
bad as they’ve been at home the L2W. GB however will be without DE/OLB Kampman & CB Harris to
serious knee injuries here. Schwartz helped the Titans wreck the Lions LY on Thanksgiving 47-10 as an
11 pt AF as their DC & know has to motivate TY’s unit that gave up 37 pts to CLE LW. There is no line
here as Stafford injured his non-throwing shoulder LW but he took another step towards winning over
the team for 2010 as he threw the game winning TD. Turkey Day Play: OVER
Oakland at DALLAS - Thursday - This is only the 3rd time OAK has been in a mid-season Thursday
game (0-2 SU & ATS) but they did play SD in one LY so they have an idea of the practice & travel
schedule. DAL has won & covered 4 straight Thursdays by a 36-12 avg score. DAL has big stat
edges with the #5 & #16 units (-4 TO’s) vs OAK’s #32 & #24 units (-7 TO’s). Romo suffered a knee
bruise LW vs WAS & he only passed for 158 yds (56%) with a 1-1 ratio vs a WAS defense without DT
Haynesworth. While it wasn’t pretty he did lead the team to a win when it counted most with a 60/9pl
drive. OAK decided to see if it was the talent surrounding the QB or the QB LW as they benched
Russell & went with Gradkowski vs CIN. Gradkowski (183 yds 50% 2-1) gave the team enough spark
& athleticism to steal a win from CIN who fumbled a KR in the fi nal :30 to set up OAK’s game winning
FG. OAK has been outgained 392-159 TY on the road. Jones will make this game a priority after
the L2 offensive stinkers esp since this will be the only football game TV on in the nation & he has a
shiny new stadium to show off. Turkey Day Play: Dallas
LOGICAL APPROACH
DALLAS - 13 ½ over Oakland (Thursday) - Dallas' defense has played well the past two weeks while the offense has struggled. Oakland is last in the league in total offense at 227 yards per game. Oakland is off of their upset win over Cincinnati, catching the Bengals in a bad situation and needing all 60 minutes to capitalize on it. The Raiders are # 30 at stopping the run which should allow the Cowboys to display their well balanced offense (# 8 rush, # 9 pass). Dallas clings to a one game lead in the NFC East and face a foe incapable of trading points even with Oakland's QB change. Dallas will be aggressive on offense with the knowledge that they can overcome mistakes against this foe. Dallas has won and covered 3 straight Turkey Day games, all in this price range, defeating Tampa Bay 38-10 (12.5) in 2006, the Jets 34-3 ( -14.5) in 2007 and Seattle 34-9 (-12) last season. The situation sets up well for a similar result here. Dallas wins 37-13.
The Rest (Leans)
Texas - 21 over TEXAS A&M
Green Bay - 10 over DETROIT (Thursday)
N Y Giants - 6 ½ over DENVER (Thursday)
Best of the NFL Totals
Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47 ½
DALLAS - 13 ½ over Oakland (Thursday) - Dallas' defense has played well the past two weeks while the offense has struggled. Oakland is last in the league in total offense at 227 yards per game. Oakland is off of their upset win over Cincinnati, catching the Bengals in a bad situation and needing all 60 minutes to capitalize on it. The Raiders are # 30 at stopping the run which should allow the Cowboys to display their well balanced offense (# 8 rush, # 9 pass). Dallas clings to a one game lead in the NFC East and face a foe incapable of trading points even with Oakland's QB change. Dallas will be aggressive on offense with the knowledge that they can overcome mistakes against this foe. Dallas has won and covered 3 straight Turkey Day games, all in this price range, defeating Tampa Bay 38-10 (12.5) in 2006, the Jets 34-3 ( -14.5) in 2007 and Seattle 34-9 (-12) last season. The situation sets up well for a similar result here. Dallas wins 37-13.
The Rest (Leans)
Texas - 21 over TEXAS A&M
Green Bay - 10 over DETROIT (Thursday)
N Y Giants - 6 ½ over DENVER (Thursday)
Best of the NFL Totals
Green Bay/Detroit OVER 47 ½
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Green Bay (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) at Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS)
The Lions, coming off just their second win since 2007, kick off Thanksgiving in their traditional spot when they face the division rival Packers at Ford Field.
Detroit squeaked past equally dismal Cleveland 38-37 Sunday on a last-second Matthew Stafford TD pass, failing to cover as a rare 3½-point favorite. It was a breakout performance for Stafford, who went 26 of 43 for a whopping 422 yards and five TDs, with two INTs. However, the rookie suffered an injured left shoulder and likely will sit out this game, which would make veteran Daunte Culpepper the starter.
Even with Stafford, the Lions still have to overcome their porous defense, which rates 31st in yards allowed (391.5 ypg) – ahead of only the Browns – and dead last in points allowed (30.1 ppg). Also, their secondary is the worst in the league, yielding 275 passing ypg while giving up 24 TD passes versus just six interceptions.
Green Bay held off San Francisco 30-24 on Sunday, settling for a push as a six-point chalk after jumping out to a 23-3 halftime lead. QB Aaron Rodgers (32 of 45, 344 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs vs. 49ers) leads a Packers offense that ranks seventh in the NFL in total yards (378 ypg) and eighth in scoring (26.2 ppg). Perhaps a bigger key for the Packers, though, is their league-leading turnover margin of plus-14, as they’ve forced 22 turnovers while committing just eight.
Green Bay blanked Detroit 26-0 last month as a hefty 14-point home chalk and has now won eight straight in this NFC North rivalry (6-2 ATS). The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the Packers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Ford Field. One trend supporting Detroit: the home team is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
The Packers are on ATS upswings of 16-7-1 on the highway, 9-4 as a road chalk and 8-3 inside the division, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-6 on Thursday, 1-4-1 in November, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 4-15-2 laying more than 10 points and 0-4 as a road chalk of that same price.
The Lions are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup of that price, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 0-4-1 overall, 3-11 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 on Thursday, 3-8 as a home pup and 7-18-1 in November. Plus, Detroit is 2-25 SU (9-17-1 ATS) in its last 27 games overall.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 24-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 on the road, 5-1 in November, 5-1 with the Pack giving more than 10 points and 19-7 with the Packers as a road favorite. Likewise, the over for Detroit is on runs of 21-10-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU win, 8-2 in November, 11-3-1 against winning teams and 20-7 as a pup of more than 10 points, though the under has hit in five of the Lions’ last seven home games and five of their last seven Thursday affairs.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five overall and four of the last five in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at Dallas (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The Cowboys, standing alone atop the NFC East, look to bolster their playoff credentials when they take on the upset-minded Raiders in a non-conference clash at Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD just to sneak past struggling Washington 7-6 on Sunday, falling well short of covering as an 11-point home chalk. Three weeks ago, the Cowboys were among the top scoring teams in the league, having put up 26 points or more five times in eight games, including breaking 30 points four times. The past two weeks, though, they’ve managed just 14 total points. Still, Dallas remains fifth in total offense at 381.9 ypg, and its defense is yielding just 17.5 ppg (fifth).
Oakland sprang its second big upset of the year last week, toppling red-hot Cincinnati 20-17 as a nine-point home chalk, a month after besting Philadelphia 13-9 getting 14 points at home. Sunday’s win snapped a three-game SU skid (1-2 ATS) for the Raiders, whose offense received a big lift with the insertion of QB Bruce Gradkowski, who replaced the woeful JaMarcus Russell and threw a game-tying TD pass in the final minute. Still, Oakland ranks last in total offense (227.3 ypg) and last in scoring offense, barely cracking double digits at 10.8 ppg.
These teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with Oakland going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, the Raiders won 19-13 as a 3½-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Cowboys have won and covered four straight Thursday games – including last year’s 34-9 Thanksgiving Day rout of Seattle as an 11½-point favorite – and they’re are on ATS runs of 12-4 in November, 7-3 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 18-6-2 at home against teams with a losing road record. However, after last week’s non-cover against the Redskins, Dallas is now just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 as a double-digit chalk.
The Raiders are on ATS skids of 5-12 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win and 10-22-1 in non-division roadies.
The under is on streaks for Dallas of 4-1 in November and 48-23-3 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on tears of 12-3-1 in November, 40-17-2 against winning teams and 5-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (6-4, 4-6) at Denver (6-4 SU and ATS)
The Broncos aim to get their derailed season back on track in a prime-time inter-conference showdown against the Giants at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver got hammered by San Diego 32-3 Sunday as a 6½-point home underdog, losing and failing to cover for the fourth straight week, following a 6-0 SU and ATS start. The Broncos have been held to 17 points or less in all four losses, getting outscored by a whopping combined total of 117-37 (20 ppg). The offense is rapidly sliding, as it is now 22nd in total yards (323 ypg) and 25th in scoring (17 ppg), and though Denver is allowing 18.3 ppg for the year, that number has ballooned to an average of 29.3 ppg during its current four-game skid.
Broncos QB Kyle Orton didn’t start last week due to a foot injury but did end up entering the game in the first half for the ineffective Chris Simms. Orton is probable for this game.
New York, which started out 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) before going on its own 0-4 SU and ATS plunge, finally bounced back with a 34-31 overtime win against Atlanta on Sunday, though it still failed to cash as a seven-point home chalk. The Giants are fourth in the league in total offense (385.5 ypg), ranking seventh in rushing (133.8 ypg) and eighth in passing (251.7 ypg), while scoring 26.6 ppg (tie for sixth). They’re also second in the league in total defense, allowing a stingy 282.2 total ypg.
These non-conference rivals have met just twice this decade, with Denver going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently losing 24-23 but covering as a 2½-point road pup in October 2005. The SU winner has cashed in the Broncos’ last 13 games and eight of the Giants’ last nine.
Along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, the Giants are in pointspread funks of 0-5 against winning teams, 0-4 as a chalk and 15-32-2 in November. That said, New York still sports positive ATS streaks of 22-6 on the highway, 8-2 as a road favorite and 24-8 after a SU win. The Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen as a home pup (2-2 ATS in that spot this year), but they are otherwise on ATS freefalls of 7-19-1 overall at home (0-2 last two), 0-4 in November, 0-5 after a SU loss, 7-23 after a non-cover and 7-15 versus winning teams.
New York is on “over” runs of 6-2-1 in November, 3-1-1 on the highway and 5-2-1 as a road chalk. On the flip side, Denver is on “under” stretches of 8-2 overall, 10-1 at Invesco, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 when the Broncos are a home pup and 8-1-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(3) Texas (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) at Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS)
The Longhorns, who have a berth in the BCS Championship Game well within their grasp, cap the regular season with a trip to College Station, Texas, for the annual Thanksgiving weekend battle with Big 12 South rival Texas A&M.
Texas jumped out to a 34-6 lead midway through the third quarter against Kansas on Saturday and cruised to a 51-20 victory as a 28-point home favorite. The Longhorns rolled up 532 yards of total offense, with senior QB Colt McCoy going 32-for-41 for 396 yards with four TDs and no INTs in his final home game. McCoy has guided Texas to 29-2 record since October 2007, with the only losses being upset defeats on the road at instate foes Texas Tech (39-33 last year, giving up the winning touchdown with one second left) and Texas A&M (38-30 in the 2007 regular-season finale).
Since a 16-13 win over rival Oklahoma as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17, the Longhorns have scored, 41, 41, 35, 57 and 51 points in their last five outings – winning those five games by an average of 31.4 points – while going 4-1 ATS (4-0 ATS in Big 12 play). Mack Brown’s team has clinched the Big 12 South title and will face Nebraska next Saturday in the conference title game.
The Aggies halted a two-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 38-3 rout of Baylor, easily covering as a 5½-point home favorite. Texas A&M has scored at least 31 points in eight of its 11 games this year – including averaging 43.3 ppg in six victories – but it was held under 20 points in its other three contests against Arkansas (47-19 loss), Kansas State (62-14 loss) and Oklahoma (65-10 loss). And while Mike Sherman’s squad has won five of its six true home games (4-1-1 ATS), the one loss came against then-No. 15 Oklahoma State (36-31 as a five-point home ‘dog).
Texas avenged consecutive upset losses to Texas A&M – 12-7 as a 14-point home favorite in 2006; 38-30 as a seven-point road chalk in 2007 – with last year’s 49-9 rout, covering as a 35-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-2 in the last nine meetings, but just 5-4 ATS (1-3 ATS last four). In fact, Texas has failed to cover in four of its last five trips to College Station, and the home team is on a 9-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
McCoy has enjoyed an outstanding senior season, completing 73 percent of his throws for 3,024 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs. But while the offense has hit its stride over the last five weeks, the defense has been a rock all year long. Texas has held eight of 11 opponents to 14 points or less and ranks seventh in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), fourth in total defense (239.6 yards per game) and 22nd in pass defense (188.6 ypg). Most impressively, the Longhorns lead the nation in rush defense, allowing a national-low 51 rushing ypg and 1.7 yards per carry, and only Florida (3 rushing TDs allowed) have given up fewer rushing scores than Texas (4).
Aggies junior QB Jerrod Johnson has had a solid season, with a 59.4 percent completion rate for 2,875 yards, 24 TDs and five INTs, and he’s also added 358 rushing yards and eight additional scores. In fact, Texas A&M averages 190.5 rushing ypg. However, A&M’s defense has been a problem all year, yielding 31.2 points, 416.3 total yards and 157.3 rushing ypg (4.3 yards per carry).
In addition to their 4-1-1 overall ATS run (4-0-1 in conference), the Longhorns are on additional pointspread streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 as a double-digit favorite. Texas A&M is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home underdog of more than 10 points, but otherwise the Aggies are in ATS slumps of 3-8-1 as a dog in any situation, 1-5-1 when catching points at home, 0-6 on Thursday, 16-34-1 after a SU win and 1-9 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
The SU winner is 25-4-1 ATS in Texas A&M’s last 30 games, including 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine.
The over is 18-7-1 in Texas’ last 26 roadies, 15-6-1 in its last 22 as a road favorite and 7-3 in its last 10 in November. The Aggies are also on a slew of “over” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 13-4-1 in Big 12 games, 33-16-2 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home underdog, 6-1-1 as a pup of more than 10 points, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 on Thursday and 17-8-1 in November.
Conversely, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these schools and 5-1-1 in the last six battles at Texas A&M.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Minnesota (3-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. (11) Butler (3-0, 1-2 ATS)
(at Anaheim, Calif.)
Butler tries to knock off its second Big Ten opponent this season when it faces the Golden Gophers in a clash of unbeaten ranked opponents in the opening round of the 76 Classic in Anaheim.
Minnesota has yet to be tested this year, pounding out home wins over inferior opponents Tennessee Tech (87-50), Stephen F. Austin (82-42) and Utah Valley State (76-51). The Gophers are off to a strong start for the second consecutive year, as they won their first 12 games last season and began 16-1 before fading down the stretch, losing 10 of their final 16 contests.
The Bulldogs followed up an impressive 67-54 win at Northwestern as a 4 ½-point road chalk by barely squeaking past Evansville on Saturday, holding on 64-60 but falling way short as a 12½-point road favorite. Butler is 7-2 SU in its last nine games going back to last season.
Both teams play tremendous defense, as Minnesota has given up just 47.7 points per game on 34 percent shooting, while the Bulldogs have limited their first three opponents to 58.7 ppg on 42.1 percent shooting. Dating to last year, the Gophers have allowed more than 64 points just five times in their last 17 games, and Butler has limited 19 of its last 22 opponents – including 10 of the last 11 – to 63 points or fewer, with 13 of those 19 scoring less than 60 points.
Minnesota went 8-2-1 ATS in its first 11 lined contests last year, but since then Tubby Smith’s squad is mired in a 5-13 ATS funk. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are on pointspread slides of 3-9 at neutral sites, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-8 against opponents with a winning record and 0-6 after a SU win, but they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference tilts.
With the win and cover at Northwestern, Butler is 6-1 SU in its last seven against Big Ten opponents, going 4-0-1 ATS in its last five, and the Bulldogs have also covered in 36 of their last 52 non-conference games and five of seven on Thursday. But they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four at neutral sites.
The under is 5-2 in the Gophers’ last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 in Butler’s last four against the Big Ten. However, the over is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven on Thursday, and the Bulldogs carry “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 7-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 on Thursday.
The winner of this contest will face either UCLA or Portland in Friday’s semifinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER
NBA
Orlando (11-4, 9-6 ATS) at Atlanta (11-3 SU and ATS)
The Magic begin a three-game road trip with a stop at Philips Arena to face the Hawks in the first meeting of the season between the Southeast Division’s top two teams.
Orlando’s five-game winning streak was snapped in Wednesday’s last-second, 99-98 home loss to Miami as a 9½-point favorite, a setback that dropped the Magic a half-game behind Atlanta in the division standings. Orlando had gone 4-1 ATS during its win streak while yielding just 86.2 points per game, but last night the Magic surrendered more than 96 points for just the seventh time this season.
Atlanta has been idle since Saturday, when it suffered a surprising 96-88 loss at New Orleans as a five-point road favorite, snapping a seven-game winning streak. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in their last two contests following a 6-0 ATS run. Atlanta, which averaged 109.4 ppg during its winning streak, has tallied at least 97 points in 12 of its 14 games – topping triple digits nine times – but the Hawks have scored just 88 and 83 in their last two losses. Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 at home (6-1 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 13 ppg (110.7-97.7).
These rivals opened the season against each other last year, with Atlanta scoring a 99-85 upset victory as an eight-point road underdog, but the Magic came back and won the final three meetings both SU and ATS. That includes a pair of narrow wins at Philips Arena by scores of 106-102 (as two-point underdog) and 88-82 (as a 1½-point road favorite). The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 13 series battles, and the visitor is on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Orlando is rising positive pointspread streaks of 4-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 14-6 against Eastern Conference opponents and 7-2 inside the division. Likewise, the Hawks are on ATS runs of 11-3 on the season, 20-8-2 at home, 5-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 in Southeast Division contests and 5-1-1 versus winning teams.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of their last 10 games when playing on back-to-back nights, and the over for the Hawks is on runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 at home. However, the under is on stretches of 5-0 for Orlando on the road, 13-3 for Orlando on Thursday and 8-2 for Atlanta on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
NFL
Green Bay (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) at Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS)
The Lions, coming off just their second win since 2007, kick off Thanksgiving in their traditional spot when they face the division rival Packers at Ford Field.
Detroit squeaked past equally dismal Cleveland 38-37 Sunday on a last-second Matthew Stafford TD pass, failing to cover as a rare 3½-point favorite. It was a breakout performance for Stafford, who went 26 of 43 for a whopping 422 yards and five TDs, with two INTs. However, the rookie suffered an injured left shoulder and likely will sit out this game, which would make veteran Daunte Culpepper the starter.
Even with Stafford, the Lions still have to overcome their porous defense, which rates 31st in yards allowed (391.5 ypg) – ahead of only the Browns – and dead last in points allowed (30.1 ppg). Also, their secondary is the worst in the league, yielding 275 passing ypg while giving up 24 TD passes versus just six interceptions.
Green Bay held off San Francisco 30-24 on Sunday, settling for a push as a six-point chalk after jumping out to a 23-3 halftime lead. QB Aaron Rodgers (32 of 45, 344 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs vs. 49ers) leads a Packers offense that ranks seventh in the NFL in total yards (378 ypg) and eighth in scoring (26.2 ppg). Perhaps a bigger key for the Packers, though, is their league-leading turnover margin of plus-14, as they’ve forced 22 turnovers while committing just eight.
Green Bay blanked Detroit 26-0 last month as a hefty 14-point home chalk and has now won eight straight in this NFC North rivalry (6-2 ATS). The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the Packers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Ford Field. One trend supporting Detroit: the home team is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
The Packers are on ATS upswings of 16-7-1 on the highway, 9-4 as a road chalk and 8-3 inside the division, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-6 on Thursday, 1-4-1 in November, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 4-15-2 laying more than 10 points and 0-4 as a road chalk of that same price.
The Lions are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup of that price, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 0-4-1 overall, 3-11 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 on Thursday, 3-8 as a home pup and 7-18-1 in November. Plus, Detroit is 2-25 SU (9-17-1 ATS) in its last 27 games overall.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 24-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 on the road, 5-1 in November, 5-1 with the Pack giving more than 10 points and 19-7 with the Packers as a road favorite. Likewise, the over for Detroit is on runs of 21-10-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU win, 8-2 in November, 11-3-1 against winning teams and 20-7 as a pup of more than 10 points, though the under has hit in five of the Lions’ last seven home games and five of their last seven Thursday affairs.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five overall and four of the last five in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at Dallas (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The Cowboys, standing alone atop the NFC East, look to bolster their playoff credentials when they take on the upset-minded Raiders in a non-conference clash at Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD just to sneak past struggling Washington 7-6 on Sunday, falling well short of covering as an 11-point home chalk. Three weeks ago, the Cowboys were among the top scoring teams in the league, having put up 26 points or more five times in eight games, including breaking 30 points four times. The past two weeks, though, they’ve managed just 14 total points. Still, Dallas remains fifth in total offense at 381.9 ypg, and its defense is yielding just 17.5 ppg (fifth).
Oakland sprang its second big upset of the year last week, toppling red-hot Cincinnati 20-17 as a nine-point home chalk, a month after besting Philadelphia 13-9 getting 14 points at home. Sunday’s win snapped a three-game SU skid (1-2 ATS) for the Raiders, whose offense received a big lift with the insertion of QB Bruce Gradkowski, who replaced the woeful JaMarcus Russell and threw a game-tying TD pass in the final minute. Still, Oakland ranks last in total offense (227.3 ypg) and last in scoring offense, barely cracking double digits at 10.8 ppg.
These teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with Oakland going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, the Raiders won 19-13 as a 3½-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Cowboys have won and covered four straight Thursday games – including last year’s 34-9 Thanksgiving Day rout of Seattle as an 11½-point favorite – and they’re are on ATS runs of 12-4 in November, 7-3 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 18-6-2 at home against teams with a losing road record. However, after last week’s non-cover against the Redskins, Dallas is now just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 as a double-digit chalk.
The Raiders are on ATS skids of 5-12 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win and 10-22-1 in non-division roadies.
The under is on streaks for Dallas of 4-1 in November and 48-23-3 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on tears of 12-3-1 in November, 40-17-2 against winning teams and 5-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (6-4, 4-6) at Denver (6-4 SU and ATS)
The Broncos aim to get their derailed season back on track in a prime-time inter-conference showdown against the Giants at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver got hammered by San Diego 32-3 Sunday as a 6½-point home underdog, losing and failing to cover for the fourth straight week, following a 6-0 SU and ATS start. The Broncos have been held to 17 points or less in all four losses, getting outscored by a whopping combined total of 117-37 (20 ppg). The offense is rapidly sliding, as it is now 22nd in total yards (323 ypg) and 25th in scoring (17 ppg), and though Denver is allowing 18.3 ppg for the year, that number has ballooned to an average of 29.3 ppg during its current four-game skid.
Broncos QB Kyle Orton didn’t start last week due to a foot injury but did end up entering the game in the first half for the ineffective Chris Simms. Orton is probable for this game.
New York, which started out 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) before going on its own 0-4 SU and ATS plunge, finally bounced back with a 34-31 overtime win against Atlanta on Sunday, though it still failed to cash as a seven-point home chalk. The Giants are fourth in the league in total offense (385.5 ypg), ranking seventh in rushing (133.8 ypg) and eighth in passing (251.7 ypg), while scoring 26.6 ppg (tie for sixth). They’re also second in the league in total defense, allowing a stingy 282.2 total ypg.
These non-conference rivals have met just twice this decade, with Denver going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently losing 24-23 but covering as a 2½-point road pup in October 2005. The SU winner has cashed in the Broncos’ last 13 games and eight of the Giants’ last nine.
Along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, the Giants are in pointspread funks of 0-5 against winning teams, 0-4 as a chalk and 15-32-2 in November. That said, New York still sports positive ATS streaks of 22-6 on the highway, 8-2 as a road favorite and 24-8 after a SU win. The Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen as a home pup (2-2 ATS in that spot this year), but they are otherwise on ATS freefalls of 7-19-1 overall at home (0-2 last two), 0-4 in November, 0-5 after a SU loss, 7-23 after a non-cover and 7-15 versus winning teams.
New York is on “over” runs of 6-2-1 in November, 3-1-1 on the highway and 5-2-1 as a road chalk. On the flip side, Denver is on “under” stretches of 8-2 overall, 10-1 at Invesco, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 when the Broncos are a home pup and 8-1-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(3) Texas (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) at Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS)
The Longhorns, who have a berth in the BCS Championship Game well within their grasp, cap the regular season with a trip to College Station, Texas, for the annual Thanksgiving weekend battle with Big 12 South rival Texas A&M.
Texas jumped out to a 34-6 lead midway through the third quarter against Kansas on Saturday and cruised to a 51-20 victory as a 28-point home favorite. The Longhorns rolled up 532 yards of total offense, with senior QB Colt McCoy going 32-for-41 for 396 yards with four TDs and no INTs in his final home game. McCoy has guided Texas to 29-2 record since October 2007, with the only losses being upset defeats on the road at instate foes Texas Tech (39-33 last year, giving up the winning touchdown with one second left) and Texas A&M (38-30 in the 2007 regular-season finale).
Since a 16-13 win over rival Oklahoma as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17, the Longhorns have scored, 41, 41, 35, 57 and 51 points in their last five outings – winning those five games by an average of 31.4 points – while going 4-1 ATS (4-0 ATS in Big 12 play). Mack Brown’s team has clinched the Big 12 South title and will face Nebraska next Saturday in the conference title game.
The Aggies halted a two-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 38-3 rout of Baylor, easily covering as a 5½-point home favorite. Texas A&M has scored at least 31 points in eight of its 11 games this year – including averaging 43.3 ppg in six victories – but it was held under 20 points in its other three contests against Arkansas (47-19 loss), Kansas State (62-14 loss) and Oklahoma (65-10 loss). And while Mike Sherman’s squad has won five of its six true home games (4-1-1 ATS), the one loss came against then-No. 15 Oklahoma State (36-31 as a five-point home ‘dog).
Texas avenged consecutive upset losses to Texas A&M – 12-7 as a 14-point home favorite in 2006; 38-30 as a seven-point road chalk in 2007 – with last year’s 49-9 rout, covering as a 35-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-2 in the last nine meetings, but just 5-4 ATS (1-3 ATS last four). In fact, Texas has failed to cover in four of its last five trips to College Station, and the home team is on a 9-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
McCoy has enjoyed an outstanding senior season, completing 73 percent of his throws for 3,024 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs. But while the offense has hit its stride over the last five weeks, the defense has been a rock all year long. Texas has held eight of 11 opponents to 14 points or less and ranks seventh in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), fourth in total defense (239.6 yards per game) and 22nd in pass defense (188.6 ypg). Most impressively, the Longhorns lead the nation in rush defense, allowing a national-low 51 rushing ypg and 1.7 yards per carry, and only Florida (3 rushing TDs allowed) have given up fewer rushing scores than Texas (4).
Aggies junior QB Jerrod Johnson has had a solid season, with a 59.4 percent completion rate for 2,875 yards, 24 TDs and five INTs, and he’s also added 358 rushing yards and eight additional scores. In fact, Texas A&M averages 190.5 rushing ypg. However, A&M’s defense has been a problem all year, yielding 31.2 points, 416.3 total yards and 157.3 rushing ypg (4.3 yards per carry).
In addition to their 4-1-1 overall ATS run (4-0-1 in conference), the Longhorns are on additional pointspread streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 as a double-digit favorite. Texas A&M is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home underdog of more than 10 points, but otherwise the Aggies are in ATS slumps of 3-8-1 as a dog in any situation, 1-5-1 when catching points at home, 0-6 on Thursday, 16-34-1 after a SU win and 1-9 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
The SU winner is 25-4-1 ATS in Texas A&M’s last 30 games, including 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine.
The over is 18-7-1 in Texas’ last 26 roadies, 15-6-1 in its last 22 as a road favorite and 7-3 in its last 10 in November. The Aggies are also on a slew of “over” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 13-4-1 in Big 12 games, 33-16-2 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home underdog, 6-1-1 as a pup of more than 10 points, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 on Thursday and 17-8-1 in November.
Conversely, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these schools and 5-1-1 in the last six battles at Texas A&M.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Minnesota (3-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. (11) Butler (3-0, 1-2 ATS)
(at Anaheim, Calif.)
Butler tries to knock off its second Big Ten opponent this season when it faces the Golden Gophers in a clash of unbeaten ranked opponents in the opening round of the 76 Classic in Anaheim.
Minnesota has yet to be tested this year, pounding out home wins over inferior opponents Tennessee Tech (87-50), Stephen F. Austin (82-42) and Utah Valley State (76-51). The Gophers are off to a strong start for the second consecutive year, as they won their first 12 games last season and began 16-1 before fading down the stretch, losing 10 of their final 16 contests.
The Bulldogs followed up an impressive 67-54 win at Northwestern as a 4 ½-point road chalk by barely squeaking past Evansville on Saturday, holding on 64-60 but falling way short as a 12½-point road favorite. Butler is 7-2 SU in its last nine games going back to last season.
Both teams play tremendous defense, as Minnesota has given up just 47.7 points per game on 34 percent shooting, while the Bulldogs have limited their first three opponents to 58.7 ppg on 42.1 percent shooting. Dating to last year, the Gophers have allowed more than 64 points just five times in their last 17 games, and Butler has limited 19 of its last 22 opponents – including 10 of the last 11 – to 63 points or fewer, with 13 of those 19 scoring less than 60 points.
Minnesota went 8-2-1 ATS in its first 11 lined contests last year, but since then Tubby Smith’s squad is mired in a 5-13 ATS funk. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are on pointspread slides of 3-9 at neutral sites, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-8 against opponents with a winning record and 0-6 after a SU win, but they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference tilts.
With the win and cover at Northwestern, Butler is 6-1 SU in its last seven against Big Ten opponents, going 4-0-1 ATS in its last five, and the Bulldogs have also covered in 36 of their last 52 non-conference games and five of seven on Thursday. But they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four at neutral sites.
The under is 5-2 in the Gophers’ last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 in Butler’s last four against the Big Ten. However, the over is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven on Thursday, and the Bulldogs carry “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 7-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 on Thursday.
The winner of this contest will face either UCLA or Portland in Friday’s semifinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER
NBA
Orlando (11-4, 9-6 ATS) at Atlanta (11-3 SU and ATS)
The Magic begin a three-game road trip with a stop at Philips Arena to face the Hawks in the first meeting of the season between the Southeast Division’s top two teams.
Orlando’s five-game winning streak was snapped in Wednesday’s last-second, 99-98 home loss to Miami as a 9½-point favorite, a setback that dropped the Magic a half-game behind Atlanta in the division standings. Orlando had gone 4-1 ATS during its win streak while yielding just 86.2 points per game, but last night the Magic surrendered more than 96 points for just the seventh time this season.
Atlanta has been idle since Saturday, when it suffered a surprising 96-88 loss at New Orleans as a five-point road favorite, snapping a seven-game winning streak. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in their last two contests following a 6-0 ATS run. Atlanta, which averaged 109.4 ppg during its winning streak, has tallied at least 97 points in 12 of its 14 games – topping triple digits nine times – but the Hawks have scored just 88 and 83 in their last two losses. Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 at home (6-1 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 13 ppg (110.7-97.7).
These rivals opened the season against each other last year, with Atlanta scoring a 99-85 upset victory as an eight-point road underdog, but the Magic came back and won the final three meetings both SU and ATS. That includes a pair of narrow wins at Philips Arena by scores of 106-102 (as two-point underdog) and 88-82 (as a 1½-point road favorite). The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 13 series battles, and the visitor is on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Orlando is rising positive pointspread streaks of 4-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 14-6 against Eastern Conference opponents and 7-2 inside the division. Likewise, the Hawks are on ATS runs of 11-3 on the season, 20-8-2 at home, 5-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 in Southeast Division contests and 5-1-1 versus winning teams.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of their last 10 games when playing on back-to-back nights, and the over for the Hawks is on runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 at home. However, the under is on stretches of 5-0 for Orlando on the road, 13-3 for Orlando on Thursday and 8-2 for Atlanta on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Randall the Handle
Giants @ Broncos
The Broncos stock has obviously dropped. Having lost four straight after their incredible 6-0 start, investors are more apt to sell than buy right now. However, sometimes stocks are undervalued. It's not like Denver is facing some juggernaut team. The Giants have defeated only one of their past five opponents and have failed to cover in five straight. New York's offence is most efficient when balancing the run with the pass. That might be difficult with RB Brandon Jacobs nursing a sore knee. In addition, the G-Men are experiencing significant issues in their secondary and that may allow QB Kyle Orton to get well after facing six solid defences. This number is grossly overstated.
TAKING: Denver +6
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Packers @ Lions
The injuries to Lions QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson may be more publicized but Green Bay's recent losses may be more significant. The Packers have lost an important pair of defensive starters with cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampfman gone for the season. Their absence was felt immediately in last week's game as the 49ers stormed back from a 23-3 halftime deficit to almost pull off win. With Green Bay traveling on short week, spotting huge points within division and having to replace key players, Detroit gets the nod.
TAKING: Detroit +11
Raiders @ Cowboys
Not sure which team is more screwy? Is it the Raiders team that went 0-4 to the Broncos, Texans, Giants and Jets by a combined 134-16 but defeated both the Bengals and Eagles and competing the Chargers twice? Or is it the beloved Cowboys whose offence scored 126 points en route to four consecutive wins before amassing a mere 14 points these past two weeks? With QB Bruce Gradkowski now leading the Black & Silver, the team feels better about itself and we'll feel slightly better taking these points than offering them.
TAKING: Oakland +13
Giants @ Broncos
The Broncos stock has obviously dropped. Having lost four straight after their incredible 6-0 start, investors are more apt to sell than buy right now. However, sometimes stocks are undervalued. It's not like Denver is facing some juggernaut team. The Giants have defeated only one of their past five opponents and have failed to cover in five straight. New York's offence is most efficient when balancing the run with the pass. That might be difficult with RB Brandon Jacobs nursing a sore knee. In addition, the G-Men are experiencing significant issues in their secondary and that may allow QB Kyle Orton to get well after facing six solid defences. This number is grossly overstated.
TAKING: Denver +6
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Packers @ Lions
The injuries to Lions QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson may be more publicized but Green Bay's recent losses may be more significant. The Packers have lost an important pair of defensive starters with cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampfman gone for the season. Their absence was felt immediately in last week's game as the 49ers stormed back from a 23-3 halftime deficit to almost pull off win. With Green Bay traveling on short week, spotting huge points within division and having to replace key players, Detroit gets the nod.
TAKING: Detroit +11
Raiders @ Cowboys
Not sure which team is more screwy? Is it the Raiders team that went 0-4 to the Broncos, Texans, Giants and Jets by a combined 134-16 but defeated both the Bengals and Eagles and competing the Chargers twice? Or is it the beloved Cowboys whose offence scored 126 points en route to four consecutive wins before amassing a mere 14 points these past two weeks? With QB Bruce Gradkowski now leading the Black & Silver, the team feels better about itself and we'll feel slightly better taking these points than offering them.
TAKING: Oakland +13
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS –13½ over Oakland
Thanksgiving football in Dallas has become as traditional as the holiday itself and these Boys always get extra juiced up no matter whom they’re playing. A recent look at the Boys past Thanksgiving Day results shows a 34-9 easy win over Seattle last season. The year before was a 34-3 thumping over the Jets. The year before that Dallas took care of business again by a score of 38-10 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Blowouts are becoming tradition too and this year looks no different. Oakland comes in here after a rare, unlikely and emotional OT win over the Bengals. Now the Raiders will be asked to travel with only a day or two to prepare and weak teams making that transition are about as successful as Carrie Underwood would be at a hot-dog eating contest. In its last three road games the Raiders have been outscored 97-29 and that was under a lot better circumstances than the one they’ll face here. Once again the Boys draw a marshmallow on Thanksgiving and once again they’ll very likely eat them for dinner. O say can you see. Play: Dallas –13½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
DENVER +2.33 over NY Giants
While some may be inclined to take the six points, I have enough confidence in this choice to play the Broncs straight up. Yeah, Denver is a dumpster-fire right now with four losses in a row but they’ve played some tough defenses over that stretch and the Giants don’t qualify as such. Denver’s recent losses have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington and San Diego and in that loss at Washington, Kyle Orton went down when the game was close. Let’s not forget that the Broncos have beaten Dallas, Cincinnati, New England and San Diego and all four of those teams are very likely playoff bound. Besides, what have the G-Men done to warrant being a six-point favorite or a favorite at all? They opened the year 5-0 but four of its wins came against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Washington and Oakland. Combined, that quartet has 10 wins and 30 losses. In its other win the Giants beat Dallas but they were absolutely dominated in every facet of the game and had no business winning whatsoever. The Giants them went on a four-game losing streak before beating the sinking Falcons last week in OT. Are you kidding me? The Broncos have had a way tougher schedule and they have a huge edge defensively as well. Furthermore, teams traveling on an extremely short week are at a big disadvantage, as they have a lot less time to prepare. It’s very tempting to take the ridiculous points being offered but the price on the Broncos straight up is about the biggest overlay of the year thus far and that’s the way I’m playing it. Kyle Orton is back in. Play: Denver +2.33 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS –13½ over Oakland
Thanksgiving football in Dallas has become as traditional as the holiday itself and these Boys always get extra juiced up no matter whom they’re playing. A recent look at the Boys past Thanksgiving Day results shows a 34-9 easy win over Seattle last season. The year before was a 34-3 thumping over the Jets. The year before that Dallas took care of business again by a score of 38-10 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Blowouts are becoming tradition too and this year looks no different. Oakland comes in here after a rare, unlikely and emotional OT win over the Bengals. Now the Raiders will be asked to travel with only a day or two to prepare and weak teams making that transition are about as successful as Carrie Underwood would be at a hot-dog eating contest. In its last three road games the Raiders have been outscored 97-29 and that was under a lot better circumstances than the one they’ll face here. Once again the Boys draw a marshmallow on Thanksgiving and once again they’ll very likely eat them for dinner. O say can you see. Play: Dallas –13½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
DENVER +2.33 over NY Giants
While some may be inclined to take the six points, I have enough confidence in this choice to play the Broncs straight up. Yeah, Denver is a dumpster-fire right now with four losses in a row but they’ve played some tough defenses over that stretch and the Giants don’t qualify as such. Denver’s recent losses have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington and San Diego and in that loss at Washington, Kyle Orton went down when the game was close. Let’s not forget that the Broncos have beaten Dallas, Cincinnati, New England and San Diego and all four of those teams are very likely playoff bound. Besides, what have the G-Men done to warrant being a six-point favorite or a favorite at all? They opened the year 5-0 but four of its wins came against Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Washington and Oakland. Combined, that quartet has 10 wins and 30 losses. In its other win the Giants beat Dallas but they were absolutely dominated in every facet of the game and had no business winning whatsoever. The Giants them went on a four-game losing streak before beating the sinking Falcons last week in OT. Are you kidding me? The Broncos have had a way tougher schedule and they have a huge edge defensively as well. Furthermore, teams traveling on an extremely short week are at a big disadvantage, as they have a lot less time to prepare. It’s very tempting to take the ridiculous points being offered but the price on the Broncos straight up is about the biggest overlay of the year thus far and that’s the way I’m playing it. Kyle Orton is back in. Play: Denver +2.33 (Risking 2 units).
Karl Garrett
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS.....10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS
The thought of Kyle Orton hobbling around with his gimpy ankle, or the thought of Chris Simms out there trying to get back into playing shape does not instill confidence in this Denver team that is sinking like a lead balloon.
Denver is now on an 0-4 straight up, and against the spread slide since starting the season at 6-0.
New York stopped their 4-game slide, but failed to cover as they blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter against the Falcons on Sunday. Still, Eli Manning threw for nearly 400 yards last week, and with the Broncos defense starting to stay on the field a little too long these days, have to believe the Giants who are 13-5 against the spread their last 18 as a road favorite are the play in this game minus the number.
10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Texas best be on guard at College Station, as the undefeated Longhorns have dropped their last pair of decisions versus the spread at A&M, inlcuding an outright upset loss to the Aggies in 2007.
Texas A&M has gone 5-1 straight up at home this season, and 4-1-1 against the spread in their 6 home games this year.
The Aggies definitely have enough offense to stay inside of this roomy impost, and pride is a strong motivator when you are getting around 3 touchdowns on your home turf.
Take the Aggies plus the points
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS.....10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS
The thought of Kyle Orton hobbling around with his gimpy ankle, or the thought of Chris Simms out there trying to get back into playing shape does not instill confidence in this Denver team that is sinking like a lead balloon.
Denver is now on an 0-4 straight up, and against the spread slide since starting the season at 6-0.
New York stopped their 4-game slide, but failed to cover as they blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter against the Falcons on Sunday. Still, Eli Manning threw for nearly 400 yards last week, and with the Broncos defense starting to stay on the field a little too long these days, have to believe the Giants who are 13-5 against the spread their last 18 as a road favorite are the play in this game minus the number.
10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Texas best be on guard at College Station, as the undefeated Longhorns have dropped their last pair of decisions versus the spread at A&M, inlcuding an outright upset loss to the Aggies in 2007.
Texas A&M has gone 5-1 straight up at home this season, and 4-1-1 against the spread in their 6 home games this year.
The Aggies definitely have enough offense to stay inside of this roomy impost, and pride is a strong motivator when you are getting around 3 touchdowns on your home turf.
Take the Aggies plus the points
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
GoodFella | NFL Side Thu, 11/26/09 - 4:15 PM
double-dime bet 106 DAL -13.5 (-110) BetUS vs 105 OAK
Analysis:
I really like Dallas in this spot, and the fact that Oakland beat the Bengals last week REALLY makes me like this play even more. Dallas had to eek out a win AT HOME vs a not very good Washington team last week, and did not look good doing so. None of that bothers me one bit. We have a Dallas team who play*ed AT HOME last week, as Oakland has to travel on a short week & try and prepare for Dallas who almost always put forth a top-notch effort on Turkey Day. I really look for the Cowboys 8th ranked rushing attack to have major success vs this Oakland defense which ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 158 YPG. Dallas will wear down Oakland in the 2nd half, and I look for some big plays off play action by Romo mixed in with the run game. Not a good spot for the Raiders here, and I look for the Cowboys to win by 20. Lay the points with the Cowboys fellas.
double-dime bet 106 DAL -13.5 (-110) BetUS vs 105 OAK
Analysis:
I really like Dallas in this spot, and the fact that Oakland beat the Bengals last week REALLY makes me like this play even more. Dallas had to eek out a win AT HOME vs a not very good Washington team last week, and did not look good doing so. None of that bothers me one bit. We have a Dallas team who play*ed AT HOME last week, as Oakland has to travel on a short week & try and prepare for Dallas who almost always put forth a top-notch effort on Turkey Day. I really look for the Cowboys 8th ranked rushing attack to have major success vs this Oakland defense which ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 158 YPG. Dallas will wear down Oakland in the 2nd half, and I look for some big plays off play action by Romo mixed in with the run game. Not a good spot for the Raiders here, and I look for the Cowboys to win by 20. Lay the points with the Cowboys fellas.
