NBA DUNKEL
Sacramento at LA Clippers
The Kings look to take advantage of an LA team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Sacramento is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Game 501-502: Washington at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.864; Atlanta 121.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8); Under
Game 503-504: Sacramento at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 109.798; LA Clippers 108.693
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 196
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3); Over
Sacramento at LA Clippers
The Kings look to take advantage of an LA team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Sacramento is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Game 501-502: Washington at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.864; Atlanta 121.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8); Under
Game 503-504: Sacramento at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 109.798; LA Clippers 108.693
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 196
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3); Over
NCAAB DUNKEL
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
The Bulldogs look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 nonconference games. Georgia is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Irish favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER
Game 505-506: Boston College vs. Texas A&M (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 61.575; Texas A&M 66.503
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 5
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 6
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+6)
Game 507-508: Wisconsin vs. Manhattan (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.875; Manhattan 49.526
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 20
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-20)
Game 509-510: Georgia vs. Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 62.240; Notre Dame 65.059
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 6
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6)
Game 511-512: Temple vs. California (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 65.803; California 68.915
Dunkel Line: California by 3
Vegas Line: Temple by 5
Dunkel Pick: California (+5)
Game 513-514: Virginia Tech vs. CS-Northridge (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 64.667; CS-Northridge 46.058
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 17
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-17)
Game 515-516: DePaul vs. Oklahoma State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.933; Oklahoma State 64.460
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 10
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+10)
Game 517-518: Murray State vs. Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 65.471; Stanford 61.855
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-2)
Game 519-520: Tulsa vs. UNLV (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 60.521; UNLV 70.708
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 10
Vegas Line: UNLV by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-8 1/2)
Game 521-522: Houston Baptist vs. Arizona State (9:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 41.980; Arizona State 63.393
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-20 1/2)
Game 523-524: Weber State at AK-Anchorage (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 57.265; AK-Anchorage 50.102
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 7
Vegas Line: Weber State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: AK-Anchorage (+9 1/2)
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
The Bulldogs look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 nonconference games. Georgia is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Irish favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6). Here are all of today's games.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER
Game 505-506: Boston College vs. Texas A&M (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 61.575; Texas A&M 66.503
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 5
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 6
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+6)
Game 507-508: Wisconsin vs. Manhattan (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.875; Manhattan 49.526
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 20
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-20)
Game 509-510: Georgia vs. Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 62.240; Notre Dame 65.059
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 6
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6)
Game 511-512: Temple vs. California (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 65.803; California 68.915
Dunkel Line: California by 3
Vegas Line: Temple by 5
Dunkel Pick: California (+5)
Game 513-514: Virginia Tech vs. CS-Northridge (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 64.667; CS-Northridge 46.058
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 17
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-17)
Game 515-516: DePaul vs. Oklahoma State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.933; Oklahoma State 64.460
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 10
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+10)
Game 517-518: Murray State vs. Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 65.471; Stanford 61.855
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-2)
Game 519-520: Tulsa vs. UNLV (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 60.521; UNLV 70.708
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 10
Vegas Line: UNLV by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-8 1/2)
Game 521-522: Houston Baptist vs. Arizona State (9:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 41.980; Arizona State 63.393
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-20 1/2)
Game 523-524: Weber State at AK-Anchorage (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 57.265; AK-Anchorage 50.102
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 7
Vegas Line: Weber State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: AK-Anchorage (+9 1/2)
NCAAB WRITE-UP
Thursday, November 25
College Basketball Knowledge
Orlando tourney
Boston College started out 2-1 against stiffs, losing 75-67 to Yale (Yale was 12-21 from arc), beating St Francis by 30, Holy Cross by 15- they are moving up in class here, vs Texas A&M squad that is also 3-0 with no great wins, though they did win at Corpus Christi. Aggies lost three starters from LY's 24-10 team; their big recruit died in a car crash.
Wisconsin lost 68-65 (+4) at UNLV over weekend, now finds itself in Florida for tourney; Badgers have three starters back from 24-9 club that finished 4th in Big 11 LY. Manhattan lost by 11 to LIU after rallying to beat Penn late in game; Jaspers lost four starters from LY's 11-20 team. MAAC underdogs are 10-12 against the spread, 5-6 if getting 10+.
Georgia star Tompkins supposedly practiced this week, could play here vs Notre Dame team that is 4-0 against cupcakes. Irish were 23-12 LY, have three starters back. Dawgs are 3-0, winning by hoop at Saint Louis and beating pretty good Colorado team. Big East single digit favorites are 4-6 vs spread. SEC underdogs are 6-1-1 against the spread.
Temple hasn't played in 10 days since opening with pair of wins, 62-56 vs Seton Hall (-5), 82-49 over Toledo (-26). Owls were 29-6 LY and are expected to be as good or better this year. Cal Bears are 2-0, crushing a good New Mexico team by 25, beating Northridge by 17. A-14 single digit road favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Pac-10 underdogs are 1-3.
Anaheim tournament
Virginia Tech has all five starters back from 25-9 team that missed Field of 65 LY; Hokies are 2-1, losing by 16 at K-State, beating cupcakes by 10-22 points. Northridge lost by 33 at UCLA (+18), by 17 at Cal (+15); Matadors lost three starters from 11-21 team, but are playing at home, pretty much. Big West underdogs are 8-13 against the spread.
Oklahoma State has three starters back from LY's 22-11 team but lost its top two scorers; they're 3-0 this year, beating three stiffs. DePaul has a new coach and three starters back from a horrible 8-23 team- they lost at home to Western Carolina last game. Big 12 favorites are 1-5 vs spread away from home. Big East underdogs are 6-3 against the spread.
Murray State has three starters back from LY's 31-5 team that knocked Vandy out of NCAAs, but they looked bad in 77-61 loss at Ole Miss last week. Stanford beat San Diego by 16, Virginia by 21. Cardinal has 4 starters back from 14-18 team, but has seven freshmen, no seniors. OVC teams are 2-6 against spread in games where spread is single digits.
UNLV beat Wisconsin by 3 at home Saturday; they've got four starters back from LY's 25-9 team. Tulsa beat crosstown rival Oral Roberts by 15, Missouri State by 12 after losing 89-86 to Appalchian State in home opener. MWC favorites are 10-6 against the spread. C-USA single digit underdogs are 4-3 vs spread on the road.
Thursday, November 25
College Basketball Knowledge
Orlando tourney
Boston College started out 2-1 against stiffs, losing 75-67 to Yale (Yale was 12-21 from arc), beating St Francis by 30, Holy Cross by 15- they are moving up in class here, vs Texas A&M squad that is also 3-0 with no great wins, though they did win at Corpus Christi. Aggies lost three starters from LY's 24-10 team; their big recruit died in a car crash.
Wisconsin lost 68-65 (+4) at UNLV over weekend, now finds itself in Florida for tourney; Badgers have three starters back from 24-9 club that finished 4th in Big 11 LY. Manhattan lost by 11 to LIU after rallying to beat Penn late in game; Jaspers lost four starters from LY's 11-20 team. MAAC underdogs are 10-12 against the spread, 5-6 if getting 10+.
Georgia star Tompkins supposedly practiced this week, could play here vs Notre Dame team that is 4-0 against cupcakes. Irish were 23-12 LY, have three starters back. Dawgs are 3-0, winning by hoop at Saint Louis and beating pretty good Colorado team. Big East single digit favorites are 4-6 vs spread. SEC underdogs are 6-1-1 against the spread.
Temple hasn't played in 10 days since opening with pair of wins, 62-56 vs Seton Hall (-5), 82-49 over Toledo (-26). Owls were 29-6 LY and are expected to be as good or better this year. Cal Bears are 2-0, crushing a good New Mexico team by 25, beating Northridge by 17. A-14 single digit road favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Pac-10 underdogs are 1-3.
Anaheim tournament
Virginia Tech has all five starters back from 25-9 team that missed Field of 65 LY; Hokies are 2-1, losing by 16 at K-State, beating cupcakes by 10-22 points. Northridge lost by 33 at UCLA (+18), by 17 at Cal (+15); Matadors lost three starters from 11-21 team, but are playing at home, pretty much. Big West underdogs are 8-13 against the spread.
Oklahoma State has three starters back from LY's 22-11 team but lost its top two scorers; they're 3-0 this year, beating three stiffs. DePaul has a new coach and three starters back from a horrible 8-23 team- they lost at home to Western Carolina last game. Big 12 favorites are 1-5 vs spread away from home. Big East underdogs are 6-3 against the spread.
Murray State has three starters back from LY's 31-5 team that knocked Vandy out of NCAAs, but they looked bad in 77-61 loss at Ole Miss last week. Stanford beat San Diego by 16, Virginia by 21. Cardinal has 4 starters back from 14-18 team, but has seven freshmen, no seniors. OVC teams are 2-6 against spread in games where spread is single digits.
UNLV beat Wisconsin by 3 at home Saturday; they've got four starters back from LY's 25-9 team. Tulsa beat crosstown rival Oral Roberts by 15, Missouri State by 12 after losing 89-86 to Appalchian State in home opener. MWC favorites are 10-6 against the spread. C-USA single digit underdogs are 4-3 vs spread on the road.
Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
25 Dime release on the Lions plus the points over the Patriots. The Lions are currena listed as a 7 point dog in this match up. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insuorance at anywhere from +6 1/2 to +7.
Classic "too good to be true" scenario, as the public has jumped all over this turkey of a favorite this afternoon. Bad news for you chalk eaters out there, as I expect the revamped Lions to put up a hell of a fight against a Patriots team in a terrible situeational spot.
First things first, the Patriots are off a big win over the Colts and their face AFC East rival/nemesis in the Jets next week. This game is perfectly sandwiched in between those two, making for a tremendous letdown/lookahead spot. The Lions meanwhile are relishing this spot to win a big game, at home, in front of a huge National TV audience.
Next if the Patriots have one weakness it comes against the pass, and that's music to the Lions ears. Lions have had a ton of trouble finding their run game now that Best is injured. Contrary to popular opinion, I view the injury to Matt Stafford as a good thing, because Shaun Hill has a ton of chemistry with Megatron, and the rest of the Lions receivers. Seriously, just look at his game to game stats, he's having as good a year as any backup QB in the NFL. Pats secondary is young, and gives up over 270 yards passing on the road this year. Over their last 3 games their surrendeing 29 ppg on 306 passing yards per game... Sorry Patriots-backers, but the Lions offense is good enough to put up plenty of points on your defense.
Finally, say what you will about this Lions defense, but there's two things I like about them in this game. First they allow fewer points per game than this Pats defense (23 vs 24), and they excel against the pass, which obviously is key to beating New England. Their revamped defense is a big reason they're 4-0 ATS at Ford Field this season... Make it 5-0 ATS after this contest. Lions plus the points (buy insurance as intructed above) over the Patriots Thanksgiving Day.
Today's Winner...
25 Dime release on the Lions plus the points over the Patriots. The Lions are currena listed as a 7 point dog in this match up. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insuorance at anywhere from +6 1/2 to +7.
Classic "too good to be true" scenario, as the public has jumped all over this turkey of a favorite this afternoon. Bad news for you chalk eaters out there, as I expect the revamped Lions to put up a hell of a fight against a Patriots team in a terrible situeational spot.
First things first, the Patriots are off a big win over the Colts and their face AFC East rival/nemesis in the Jets next week. This game is perfectly sandwiched in between those two, making for a tremendous letdown/lookahead spot. The Lions meanwhile are relishing this spot to win a big game, at home, in front of a huge National TV audience.
Next if the Patriots have one weakness it comes against the pass, and that's music to the Lions ears. Lions have had a ton of trouble finding their run game now that Best is injured. Contrary to popular opinion, I view the injury to Matt Stafford as a good thing, because Shaun Hill has a ton of chemistry with Megatron, and the rest of the Lions receivers. Seriously, just look at his game to game stats, he's having as good a year as any backup QB in the NFL. Pats secondary is young, and gives up over 270 yards passing on the road this year. Over their last 3 games their surrendeing 29 ppg on 306 passing yards per game... Sorry Patriots-backers, but the Lions offense is good enough to put up plenty of points on your defense.
Finally, say what you will about this Lions defense, but there's two things I like about them in this game. First they allow fewer points per game than this Pats defense (23 vs 24), and they excel against the pass, which obviously is key to beating New England. Their revamped defense is a big reason they're 4-0 ATS at Ford Field this season... Make it 5-0 ATS after this contest. Lions plus the points (buy insurance as intructed above) over the Patriots Thanksgiving Day.
Thanksgiving Day Best NFL Bets
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 50.5)
The New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys might be on opposite sides of the standings in the NFC, but the two will meet in the annual Thanksgiving Day NFL betting battle in Arlington on Thursday afternoon.
The happiest man in the world right now might be New Orleans QB Drew Brees. Brees has had virtually the entire offense on his shoulders this year, as he has thrown the ball 417 times on the year versus the 248 rushing plays. The former Purdue Boilermaker has completed 290 of those passes for 2,969 yards and 22 TDs against 14 INTs. However, he’s going to get at least a little bit of a reprieve this week, as RB Reggie Bush should be back in the fold. Bush has been out of the lineup since Week 3, as he only has seven carries and nine receptions for the entire season. His backfield mate, RB Pierre Thomas has at least returned to practice, though he is unexpected to make his return to the lineup on Thursday. Thomas has been out of action since Week 4. WR Marques Colston has had at least 65 yards and six receptions in four straight games, and you can bet that he is going to want to make a name for himself on Thanksgiving Day. If you just account for scores legitimately allowed by the defense this year, New Orleans is surrendering less than two TDs per game.
We keep waiting to write the Cowboys off, but the thought has to be there in the back of your mind that they can win out and still win the Super Bowl even though they have an interim head coach right now in Jason Garrett. Garrett has totally turned the mentality in the Lone Star State around, as his Cowboys have won back to back games both SU and ATS in spite of the fact that they only had one win in each column during the first eight games of the season in which Wade Phillips was the head coach. Even though QB Tony Romo is out of the fold, QB Jon Kitna has done an admirable job filling in. Kitna has put up very similar numbers to those amassed by Romo this season, as he is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with ten scores against seven picks. Ironically, if you combine the numbers of these two Dallas QBs, you basically have the exact same numbers that Brees has put up on the season. Just like Brees, Romo and Kitna have had no help from their running backs. RB Marion Barber has basically lost his job to RB Felix Jones, and neither one even stands half of a chance of rushing for 1,000 yards this season, and they might not get there combined.
Dallas is going to be a trendy selection due to the fact that it is hot, but don’t get fooled! This is still the same lousy team with the same lousy problems, and after losing to the Cowboys last year, you know that the Saints are going to want to make sure that they bury the hosts once and for all.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+6.5, 50.5)
Kick off your Thanksgiving Day with a great NFL betting battle, as the Detroit Lions play host to one of the best teams in the league, the New England Patriots.
The Pats have been all over the place this year, as they have really played to the level of their opponents. They took down the NFL betting lines against some great teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers this year, but they also lost to the Cleveland Browns and darn near were defeated by the Buffalo Bills at home. The defense has been a major problem on the campaign, as this unit has allowed the third most yards in the league at just under 400 per game. The offense doesn’t have these outrageous numbers, as there probably won’t be a single receiver or running back get to 1,000 yards on the year, while QB Tom Brady isn’t even at 2,400 through four games and won’t touch the 4,000 yard barrier. However, points are hitting the scoreboard, and that’s all that HC Bill Belichick really cares about, as 28.9 points per game is the top mark in the NFL coming into this Thanksgiving Day weekend. Keep an eye on RB Fred Taylor in this one, as if he suits, the running game will get a huge boost. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and RB Danny Woodhead have done their jobs, as Taylor has been out of the lineup for the last two months, but his return would be very welcome.
Detroit was a frisky team for the first half of this season, but the second half has been as dismal as could be. The Lions are in a position right now where they are failing to cover spreads left and right due to the fact that they are just a beat up team that can’t take much more in the way of losing. QB Shaun Hill has already been forced to start eight games this year in place of the injured QB Matt Stafford, and though Hill might have been the most starter ready backup in the entire NFL this year, he still doesn’t have anywhere near the talent as the former No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Now to make matters worse, the team’s only viable running option, RB Jahvid Best, also a first round draft pick, is out of the lineup with turf toe. This is likely to be a running back by committee approach, though HC Jim Schwartz knows that he doesn’t have any reasonable backs that can step up and rush for 100 yards on the New England defense.
These two teams are polar opposites right now, and though you might be tempted to take Detroit after watching the Pats blow it against the Browns earlier this year, don’t let this cloud your judgment. Remember that the Lions play really good teams seemingly every Thanksgiving at home, just as they did eight years ago when the Brady Bunch came to town. Since ’04, the Lions are 0-6 SU and ATS on Turkey Day. Brady and company will make that worse on Thursday.
Pick: New England Patriots -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-9, 42.5)
Here at Bang the Book, we have plenty to be thankful for, and NFL betting fans are going to love sinking their teeth into the NFL Network Turkey Day special, a duel at the Meadowlands between the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati has some major issues right now that it needs to work out if it is going to stay competitive with the rest of the league over the last six weeks of the season. The Bengals are destined to be in a lot of trouble if they play the way they did in the second half of an embarrassing 49-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills in which they allowed five TDs. We are wondering how much rope HC Marvin Lewis has left to work with, and it is becoming particularly interesting to see how the team reacts to his coaching a week after getting blown out of the water by a terrible team. The Bengals really only have one quest left this year, and that’s to avoid ending up with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. One thing that we do know is that QB Carson Palmer can have a big game at a moment’s notice. He didn’t do so last year against the Jets in Week 17 and in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and if he has the same sort of problems on Thanksgiving, he might need to check whether his life insurance policy is paid up.
New York really hasn’t been as dominating this year as we thought was possible, especially on the defensive side of the ball. DB Darrelle Revis hasn’t logged an INT, and DB Antonio Cromartie only has two picks and just has one since Week 1 of the season. The emergence of QB Mark Sanchez has helped out a running game that probably lags just a bit behind where last year was as well when the Jets led the league in that category. Of the Jets’ L/4 wins, none were by more than six points, and all four required some sort of fantastic play in the fourth quarter and/or overtime to survive. Keep an eye on WR Braylon Edwards. He has 33 catches for 598 yards and six scores on the season, and he is quickly becoming one of Sanchez’s favorite targets in this, his second year in the NFL. This game is particularly important for New York to put away with ease, as the next five games are at New England, vs. Miami, at Pittsburgh, and at Chicago, and as we all know, 11 wins might not get the job done in the AFC this year, as someone could be left home from the playoffs with that illustrious win total.
Had the Bengals not really fallen off the face of the earth last week, we would have probably backed them in this spot. However, especially after Owens called Revis a “one year wonder” in the media this week, we tend to think that there is plenty of motivation for New York to come out and absolutely spank the visitors for the third time within the last 11 months.
Pick: New York Jets -9
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 50.5)
The New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys might be on opposite sides of the standings in the NFC, but the two will meet in the annual Thanksgiving Day NFL betting battle in Arlington on Thursday afternoon.
The happiest man in the world right now might be New Orleans QB Drew Brees. Brees has had virtually the entire offense on his shoulders this year, as he has thrown the ball 417 times on the year versus the 248 rushing plays. The former Purdue Boilermaker has completed 290 of those passes for 2,969 yards and 22 TDs against 14 INTs. However, he’s going to get at least a little bit of a reprieve this week, as RB Reggie Bush should be back in the fold. Bush has been out of the lineup since Week 3, as he only has seven carries and nine receptions for the entire season. His backfield mate, RB Pierre Thomas has at least returned to practice, though he is unexpected to make his return to the lineup on Thursday. Thomas has been out of action since Week 4. WR Marques Colston has had at least 65 yards and six receptions in four straight games, and you can bet that he is going to want to make a name for himself on Thanksgiving Day. If you just account for scores legitimately allowed by the defense this year, New Orleans is surrendering less than two TDs per game.
We keep waiting to write the Cowboys off, but the thought has to be there in the back of your mind that they can win out and still win the Super Bowl even though they have an interim head coach right now in Jason Garrett. Garrett has totally turned the mentality in the Lone Star State around, as his Cowboys have won back to back games both SU and ATS in spite of the fact that they only had one win in each column during the first eight games of the season in which Wade Phillips was the head coach. Even though QB Tony Romo is out of the fold, QB Jon Kitna has done an admirable job filling in. Kitna has put up very similar numbers to those amassed by Romo this season, as he is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with ten scores against seven picks. Ironically, if you combine the numbers of these two Dallas QBs, you basically have the exact same numbers that Brees has put up on the season. Just like Brees, Romo and Kitna have had no help from their running backs. RB Marion Barber has basically lost his job to RB Felix Jones, and neither one even stands half of a chance of rushing for 1,000 yards this season, and they might not get there combined.
Dallas is going to be a trendy selection due to the fact that it is hot, but don’t get fooled! This is still the same lousy team with the same lousy problems, and after losing to the Cowboys last year, you know that the Saints are going to want to make sure that they bury the hosts once and for all.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+6.5, 50.5)
Kick off your Thanksgiving Day with a great NFL betting battle, as the Detroit Lions play host to one of the best teams in the league, the New England Patriots.
The Pats have been all over the place this year, as they have really played to the level of their opponents. They took down the NFL betting lines against some great teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers this year, but they also lost to the Cleveland Browns and darn near were defeated by the Buffalo Bills at home. The defense has been a major problem on the campaign, as this unit has allowed the third most yards in the league at just under 400 per game. The offense doesn’t have these outrageous numbers, as there probably won’t be a single receiver or running back get to 1,000 yards on the year, while QB Tom Brady isn’t even at 2,400 through four games and won’t touch the 4,000 yard barrier. However, points are hitting the scoreboard, and that’s all that HC Bill Belichick really cares about, as 28.9 points per game is the top mark in the NFL coming into this Thanksgiving Day weekend. Keep an eye on RB Fred Taylor in this one, as if he suits, the running game will get a huge boost. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis and RB Danny Woodhead have done their jobs, as Taylor has been out of the lineup for the last two months, but his return would be very welcome.
Detroit was a frisky team for the first half of this season, but the second half has been as dismal as could be. The Lions are in a position right now where they are failing to cover spreads left and right due to the fact that they are just a beat up team that can’t take much more in the way of losing. QB Shaun Hill has already been forced to start eight games this year in place of the injured QB Matt Stafford, and though Hill might have been the most starter ready backup in the entire NFL this year, he still doesn’t have anywhere near the talent as the former No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Now to make matters worse, the team’s only viable running option, RB Jahvid Best, also a first round draft pick, is out of the lineup with turf toe. This is likely to be a running back by committee approach, though HC Jim Schwartz knows that he doesn’t have any reasonable backs that can step up and rush for 100 yards on the New England defense.
These two teams are polar opposites right now, and though you might be tempted to take Detroit after watching the Pats blow it against the Browns earlier this year, don’t let this cloud your judgment. Remember that the Lions play really good teams seemingly every Thanksgiving at home, just as they did eight years ago when the Brady Bunch came to town. Since ’04, the Lions are 0-6 SU and ATS on Turkey Day. Brady and company will make that worse on Thursday.
Pick: New England Patriots -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-9, 42.5)
Here at Bang the Book, we have plenty to be thankful for, and NFL betting fans are going to love sinking their teeth into the NFL Network Turkey Day special, a duel at the Meadowlands between the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati has some major issues right now that it needs to work out if it is going to stay competitive with the rest of the league over the last six weeks of the season. The Bengals are destined to be in a lot of trouble if they play the way they did in the second half of an embarrassing 49-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills in which they allowed five TDs. We are wondering how much rope HC Marvin Lewis has left to work with, and it is becoming particularly interesting to see how the team reacts to his coaching a week after getting blown out of the water by a terrible team. The Bengals really only have one quest left this year, and that’s to avoid ending up with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. One thing that we do know is that QB Carson Palmer can have a big game at a moment’s notice. He didn’t do so last year against the Jets in Week 17 and in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and if he has the same sort of problems on Thanksgiving, he might need to check whether his life insurance policy is paid up.
New York really hasn’t been as dominating this year as we thought was possible, especially on the defensive side of the ball. DB Darrelle Revis hasn’t logged an INT, and DB Antonio Cromartie only has two picks and just has one since Week 1 of the season. The emergence of QB Mark Sanchez has helped out a running game that probably lags just a bit behind where last year was as well when the Jets led the league in that category. Of the Jets’ L/4 wins, none were by more than six points, and all four required some sort of fantastic play in the fourth quarter and/or overtime to survive. Keep an eye on WR Braylon Edwards. He has 33 catches for 598 yards and six scores on the season, and he is quickly becoming one of Sanchez’s favorite targets in this, his second year in the NFL. This game is particularly important for New York to put away with ease, as the next five games are at New England, vs. Miami, at Pittsburgh, and at Chicago, and as we all know, 11 wins might not get the job done in the AFC this year, as someone could be left home from the playoffs with that illustrious win total.
Had the Bengals not really fallen off the face of the earth last week, we would have probably backed them in this spot. However, especially after Owens called Revis a “one year wonder” in the media this week, we tend to think that there is plenty of motivation for New York to come out and absolutely spank the visitors for the third time within the last 11 months.
Pick: New York Jets -9
Thanksgiving Day Best CFB Bet
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 47.5)
The shootout at the end of the season in the Lone Star State nearly always favored the Texas Longhorns. However, this year is significantly different, as the Texas A&M Aggies hold the bigger gun in this fight, and they can take a real chunk out of the Texas football program with a win in Austin on Thanksgiving night.
The Aggies really just didn’t get quite enough oomph this year to be able to win the Big XII South, as they probably made the switch from QB Jerrod Johnson to QB Ryan Tannehill too late to save the campaign. Still, finishing with a Top 15 ranking in the nation is still a distinct possibility, as is a ten win season if it can win here and in a bowl game. Tannehill has led this offense to four fantastic games since coming into the fold, as he has really dominated even some of the best that the Big XII has to offer. Though he wasn’t dominant last week against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, it was the defense that stood tall, keeping Big Red out of the end zone in its biggest performance of the campaign. Tannehill has thrown for 1,306 yards and has a 10/3 TD/INT ratio in just five outings this year. RB Cyrus Gray has done a great job taking over for the injured RB Christine Michael. Gray has rumbled for 810 yards and ten TDs this season. Keep a close eye on WR Jeff Fuller as well. He is at 959 yards and 11 TDs this year, and he can reach the 1,000 yard barrier relatively quickly in this game.
It’s not often that you see a team ranked in the Top 5 in the nation at one point over the course of this season not make a bowl game. It’s even rarer to see a team playing for its life on Thanksgiving weekend a year after playing for the BCS Championship. However, that’s where Texas is right now, and this NCAA football betting affair is absolutely pivotal. A win would salvage a bowl appearance, as you know that there is no way that a bowl game is passing on the Longhorns that normally gets a team like the Iowa State Cyclones or Kansas State Wildcats. The problem here is that playing at home hasn’t been fun in conference play. The Horns already have losses to the Cyclones, the Baylor Bears, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys here, and they could drop yet another home game to finish the season winless in conference play in Austin for the first time in the HC Mack Brown era. QB Garrett Gilbert badly needs to improve his game, as it is clear that he is the key to victory. Gilbert has failed miserably in his second season in Austin, throwing for just 2,525 yards with more INTs than TDs.
Though we have a feeling that the Aggies are going to find a way to pull this one out, we’d feel a heck of a lot more comfortable taking Texas and points at home than we would be laying anything on the road in this series. A&M might find a way to win a squeaker, but we are still taking the college football odds given to us by the oddsmakers with the hosts.
Pick: Texas Longhorns +3.5
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 47.5)
The shootout at the end of the season in the Lone Star State nearly always favored the Texas Longhorns. However, this year is significantly different, as the Texas A&M Aggies hold the bigger gun in this fight, and they can take a real chunk out of the Texas football program with a win in Austin on Thanksgiving night.
The Aggies really just didn’t get quite enough oomph this year to be able to win the Big XII South, as they probably made the switch from QB Jerrod Johnson to QB Ryan Tannehill too late to save the campaign. Still, finishing with a Top 15 ranking in the nation is still a distinct possibility, as is a ten win season if it can win here and in a bowl game. Tannehill has led this offense to four fantastic games since coming into the fold, as he has really dominated even some of the best that the Big XII has to offer. Though he wasn’t dominant last week against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, it was the defense that stood tall, keeping Big Red out of the end zone in its biggest performance of the campaign. Tannehill has thrown for 1,306 yards and has a 10/3 TD/INT ratio in just five outings this year. RB Cyrus Gray has done a great job taking over for the injured RB Christine Michael. Gray has rumbled for 810 yards and ten TDs this season. Keep a close eye on WR Jeff Fuller as well. He is at 959 yards and 11 TDs this year, and he can reach the 1,000 yard barrier relatively quickly in this game.
It’s not often that you see a team ranked in the Top 5 in the nation at one point over the course of this season not make a bowl game. It’s even rarer to see a team playing for its life on Thanksgiving weekend a year after playing for the BCS Championship. However, that’s where Texas is right now, and this NCAA football betting affair is absolutely pivotal. A win would salvage a bowl appearance, as you know that there is no way that a bowl game is passing on the Longhorns that normally gets a team like the Iowa State Cyclones or Kansas State Wildcats. The problem here is that playing at home hasn’t been fun in conference play. The Horns already have losses to the Cyclones, the Baylor Bears, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys here, and they could drop yet another home game to finish the season winless in conference play in Austin for the first time in the HC Mack Brown era. QB Garrett Gilbert badly needs to improve his game, as it is clear that he is the key to victory. Gilbert has failed miserably in his second season in Austin, throwing for just 2,525 yards with more INTs than TDs.
Though we have a feeling that the Aggies are going to find a way to pull this one out, we’d feel a heck of a lot more comfortable taking Texas and points at home than we would be laying anything on the road in this series. A&M might find a way to win a squeaker, but we are still taking the college football odds given to us by the oddsmakers with the hosts.
Pick: Texas Longhorns +3.5
