StatSystems Report 11/25
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/25
NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL & CFB *****
*** NEW ENGLAND (-6.5, O/U 51) @ DETROIT ***
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As one of three teams tied for the best record in the NFL, the New England Patriots have to be feeling good about their present position as they head into this holiday season. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions once again have little to be thankful for at this time of year. The lowly Lions hope to break their recent tradition of losing badly on Thanksgiving when the long-running doormats host their annual late-November tilt Thursday at Ford Field. The task doesn't figure to be easy, however, with the powerful Patriots surging into the Motor City off back-to-back uplifting wins over a pair of prime AFC contenders.
New England appears to be in excellent shape in regards to obtaining a seventh postseason trip in the past eight seasons, having so far amassed a stellar 8-2 record that's tied with the AFC East-rival New York Jets for the top spot in the conference. The Patriots haven't built that impressive mark by beating up on softies either, as four of those victories (Baltimore, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis) have come against teams regarded among the upper echelon of the AFC.
The Pats came through with a statement win by taking apart the highly-touted Steelers in Pittsburgh back in Week 10, then followed up that 39-26 triumph by outlasting the defending conference champion Colts in another thriller between the clubs this past Sunday. New England avenged a stinging last-second loss to Indianapolis from last season by holding on for a 31-28 decision, getting another deadly-sharp performance out of quarterback Tom Brady and an opportunistic display from its defense to prevail.
New England intercepted Colts legend Peyton Manning three times, with the final pick coming with Indianapolis in range for a potential game-tying field goal with only 31 seconds to go in regulation. Brady aided the cause by putting together a more efficient outing than his fellow star counterpart, with the two-time Super Bowl MVP completing 19-of-25 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover. The gritty win set the stage for a possible titanic showdown with the co- division leading Jets in New England next week, provided the Patriots are able to get past a sinking Detroit squad that's usually played like turkeys in its showcase game in years past.
The Lions have lost six straight times on Thanksgiving and have been outscored by a whopping 213-74 margin over the course of that skid. Four of those defeats have come by 20 points or more. Detroit, which last won on Turkey Day in 2003 (a 22-14 verdict over Green Bay), also won't be entering Thursday's clash with much in the way of momentum. The Lions have lost their past three contests to fall to 2-8 on the season, with two of the setbacks during that stretch coming to AFC East inhabitants Buffalo and the Jets.
The Lions resumed their unsuccessful ways with last Sunday's 35-19 road loss to a rejuvenated Dallas team, with the Cowboys erupting for 28 second-half points to overcome a 12-7 deficit early in the third quarter. Detroit will also be without starting quarterback Matt Stafford for a third straight week as the 2009 No. 1 overall draft choice continues to recover from a serious shoulder injury, and exciting rookie running back Jahvid Best seems likely to sit out as well due to a lingering turf toe problem that's hindered his production for two months running.
Best, the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Month for September, was used sparingly in the Dallas game and mustered a mere 17 yards from scrimmage on seven touches (four receptions, three rush attempts). The young playmaker is expected to give way to veteran Maurice Morris as the Lions' primary ball- carrier on Thursday.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Patriots lead the all-time series with the Lions, 5-4, with New England breaking a deadlock in the series with a 28-21 home victory in 2006. The Pats also won in their last trip to Detroit, a 20-12 triumph in 2002. The Lions' most recent win over New England came in 2000, a 34-9 home victory. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 2-3 against Detroit in his career, including a 0-2 mark while at the helm of the Browns (1991-95). The Lions' Jim Schwartz will be meeting both Belichick and New England for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
One of the most proficient offenses in all of football will be showcased on Thursday, as New England leads the NFL with an average of 28.9 points per game and ranks fifth overall in third-down success rate (44.8 percent). Those outstanding numbers are in a large part due to Brady (2362 passing yards, 19 TD, 4 INT), who's vaulted himself near the forefront of early MVP discussion with his remarkable play under center.
The five-time Pro Bowl honoree enters this Week 12 test having thrown 172 passes without an interception and continues to excel despite a revolving door of receivers that's remained strong despite the team's surprise jettisoning of proven playmaker Randy Moss last month. Veteran Deion Branch (43 receptions, 1 TD) has helped offset Moss' departure since being re-acquired from Seattle in a midseason trade, having posted consecutive games with seven catches and at least 70 receiving yards, while rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez (35 receptions, 3 TD) and Rob Gronkowski (20 receptions, 6 TD) have each made a quick transition to the pro game to lend further support.
And don't forget the Pats still sport arguably the league's premier slot receiver in Wes Welker (57 receptions, 4 TD), who's on track for a fourth straight season of at least 90 grabs. New England has also gotten good production from its no-name running back duo of undrafted free agents BenJarvus Green-Ellis (568 rushing yards, 7 TD) and sparkplug Danny Woodhead (312 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 4 total TD), with the pair combining for 165 rushing yards in last week's win over the Colts. Woodhead is averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry as the third-down specialist and provides Brady with another capable target out of the backfield.
The Lions will attempt to neutralize Brady, who's been sacked only twice over the past four weeks, with a stout pass rush anchored by rookie sensation Ndamukong Suh (41 tackles, 1 INT), who's amassed seven sacks from his interior tackle position through his first 10 games as a pro. Experienced end Kyle Vanden Bosch (49 tackles, 4 sacks) is another accomplished disruptor on a unit that's racked up a solid 27 sacks for the year, and Detroit hopes to have speed rusher Cliff Avril (19 tackles, 4 sacks) back this week from a quadriceps injury that's sidelined him for the past two contests.
Cornerback Alphonso Smith (37 tackles, 5 INT, 8 PD) is the standout of a young secondary that was burned for three touchdown passes by Dallas' Jon Kitna in Sunday's loss, and the Lions could use some shoring up in the area of run defense, as they've allowed an average of 130.6 rushing yards per game (26th overall) thus far. Detroit permitted 134 yards on the ground to a usually-stagnant Cowboys' rushing attack in Week 11, with Suh leading the team with eight tackles and linebackers DeAndre Levy (29 tackles) and Julian Peterson (57 tackles, 1 sack) each coming up with seven stops.
• WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------
Despite only having had the brittle Stafford available for one full game and parts of two others, Detroit still has compiled the sixth-most passing yards in the league (268.9 ypg) this season. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill (1921 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) has been quite serviceable as a fill-in, with the offseason pickup averaging 290 yards through the air in the six outings he's started and completed. He's got plenty of quality options to work with, including an unquestioned No. 1 receiver in the freakishly-talented Calvin Johnson (55 receptions, 725 yards), a 6-foot-5, 236-pound matchup nightmare who paces the NFC with 10 touchdown catches.
Ex-Seahawk Nate Burleson (37 receptions, 4 TD) has shown to be a very good complement to Johnson, and the free-agent addition is coming off a seven-reception, 97-yard effort against the Cowboys, while promising youngster Brandon Pettigrew (50 receptions, 3 TD) is developing into one of the game's top all-around tight ends during a breakthrough sophomore campaign. The 2009 first-round selection is tied for the NFL lead in catches at his position and delivered eight grabs totaling 75 yards last week. Morris (41 rushing yards, 11 receptions) will step into the featured back's role if Best is unable to go, with fullback Jerome Felton (50 rushing yards) and little-used second-year man Aaron Brown (22 rushing yards, 4 receptions) also factoring into the mix. None possesses Best's explosiveness or pass-catching skills, as the rookie's 375 receiving yards ranks fourth among running backs this year.
Hill should be able to find some holes in a New England defense that's given up the second-most passing yards in the NFL (289.6 ypg) as well as a league- worst 69.4 completion percentage, with Manning putting up a massive 396 yards and tossing four touchdown strikes against the young secondary last week. Still, the Patriots were able to force three critical interceptions in the big win, and a pass rush that generated five sacks in the Week 10 victory at Pittsburgh managed to throw Manning out of rhythm on several occasions.
Lineman Mike Wright (14 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (30 tackles, 3 sacks) have been the team's best pressure creators, while rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (54 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PD) has displayed considerable improvement after struggling at the outset of his pro debut. Don't anticipate the Lions getting their 31st-ranked running game (80.5 ypg) untracked on a pretty sound front seven headed up by ultra-active inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (120 tackles, 1 sack) and two-time All-Pro nose tackle Vince Wilfork (34 tackles). Mayo is the league's leading tackler by a wide margin and came up with a game-high 15 stops (11 solo) versus the Colts.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Pats take their amazing magical act on the road as they continue to win games through smoke and mirrors with a team that allows 62 YPG more than it gains on the season. Through it all Billy’s kids are 8-2 this campaign, currently tied atop the AFC East with the Jets. Good news for New England fans is the fact that Turkey Day favorites off back-to-back wins are a mindboggling 14-1 ATS since 1987.
Meanwhile, the Lions have been basted like the turkeys they are on Thanksgiving Day, going 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years. We should also mention the Patriots’ glossy 9-1 SU and ATS mark on the road in games off back-to-back wins against opponents off back-to-back losses.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New England by 4.5; O/U 54
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New England -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New England -3.97
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 19.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 21.1, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.3, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.7, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 38-22 OVER (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 21.6, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DETROIT is 33-18 OVER (+13.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 18.6, OPPONENT 27.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 19.9, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 8.7, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 against the 1rst half line (+16.8 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.5, OPPONENT 8.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 37-19 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.7, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.9, OPPONENT 8.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 31-14 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 9.4, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.8, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.7, Opponent 9.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (57-42).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DETROIT) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-22 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 21.2, Opponent 24 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (32.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (69-41).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 22.7 (Total points scored = 45.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (72-53).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DETROIT) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.4, Opponent 12.1 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (90-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (197-152).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/25
NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL & CFB *****
*** NEW ENGLAND (-6.5, O/U 51) @ DETROIT ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
As one of three teams tied for the best record in the NFL, the New England Patriots have to be feeling good about their present position as they head into this holiday season. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions once again have little to be thankful for at this time of year. The lowly Lions hope to break their recent tradition of losing badly on Thanksgiving when the long-running doormats host their annual late-November tilt Thursday at Ford Field. The task doesn't figure to be easy, however, with the powerful Patriots surging into the Motor City off back-to-back uplifting wins over a pair of prime AFC contenders.
New England appears to be in excellent shape in regards to obtaining a seventh postseason trip in the past eight seasons, having so far amassed a stellar 8-2 record that's tied with the AFC East-rival New York Jets for the top spot in the conference. The Patriots haven't built that impressive mark by beating up on softies either, as four of those victories (Baltimore, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis) have come against teams regarded among the upper echelon of the AFC.
The Pats came through with a statement win by taking apart the highly-touted Steelers in Pittsburgh back in Week 10, then followed up that 39-26 triumph by outlasting the defending conference champion Colts in another thriller between the clubs this past Sunday. New England avenged a stinging last-second loss to Indianapolis from last season by holding on for a 31-28 decision, getting another deadly-sharp performance out of quarterback Tom Brady and an opportunistic display from its defense to prevail.
New England intercepted Colts legend Peyton Manning three times, with the final pick coming with Indianapolis in range for a potential game-tying field goal with only 31 seconds to go in regulation. Brady aided the cause by putting together a more efficient outing than his fellow star counterpart, with the two-time Super Bowl MVP completing 19-of-25 passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover. The gritty win set the stage for a possible titanic showdown with the co- division leading Jets in New England next week, provided the Patriots are able to get past a sinking Detroit squad that's usually played like turkeys in its showcase game in years past.
The Lions have lost six straight times on Thanksgiving and have been outscored by a whopping 213-74 margin over the course of that skid. Four of those defeats have come by 20 points or more. Detroit, which last won on Turkey Day in 2003 (a 22-14 verdict over Green Bay), also won't be entering Thursday's clash with much in the way of momentum. The Lions have lost their past three contests to fall to 2-8 on the season, with two of the setbacks during that stretch coming to AFC East inhabitants Buffalo and the Jets.
The Lions resumed their unsuccessful ways with last Sunday's 35-19 road loss to a rejuvenated Dallas team, with the Cowboys erupting for 28 second-half points to overcome a 12-7 deficit early in the third quarter. Detroit will also be without starting quarterback Matt Stafford for a third straight week as the 2009 No. 1 overall draft choice continues to recover from a serious shoulder injury, and exciting rookie running back Jahvid Best seems likely to sit out as well due to a lingering turf toe problem that's hindered his production for two months running.
Best, the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Month for September, was used sparingly in the Dallas game and mustered a mere 17 yards from scrimmage on seven touches (four receptions, three rush attempts). The young playmaker is expected to give way to veteran Maurice Morris as the Lions' primary ball- carrier on Thursday.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Patriots lead the all-time series with the Lions, 5-4, with New England breaking a deadlock in the series with a 28-21 home victory in 2006. The Pats also won in their last trip to Detroit, a 20-12 triumph in 2002. The Lions' most recent win over New England came in 2000, a 34-9 home victory. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 2-3 against Detroit in his career, including a 0-2 mark while at the helm of the Browns (1991-95). The Lions' Jim Schwartz will be meeting both Belichick and New England for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
One of the most proficient offenses in all of football will be showcased on Thursday, as New England leads the NFL with an average of 28.9 points per game and ranks fifth overall in third-down success rate (44.8 percent). Those outstanding numbers are in a large part due to Brady (2362 passing yards, 19 TD, 4 INT), who's vaulted himself near the forefront of early MVP discussion with his remarkable play under center.
The five-time Pro Bowl honoree enters this Week 12 test having thrown 172 passes without an interception and continues to excel despite a revolving door of receivers that's remained strong despite the team's surprise jettisoning of proven playmaker Randy Moss last month. Veteran Deion Branch (43 receptions, 1 TD) has helped offset Moss' departure since being re-acquired from Seattle in a midseason trade, having posted consecutive games with seven catches and at least 70 receiving yards, while rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez (35 receptions, 3 TD) and Rob Gronkowski (20 receptions, 6 TD) have each made a quick transition to the pro game to lend further support.
And don't forget the Pats still sport arguably the league's premier slot receiver in Wes Welker (57 receptions, 4 TD), who's on track for a fourth straight season of at least 90 grabs. New England has also gotten good production from its no-name running back duo of undrafted free agents BenJarvus Green-Ellis (568 rushing yards, 7 TD) and sparkplug Danny Woodhead (312 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 4 total TD), with the pair combining for 165 rushing yards in last week's win over the Colts. Woodhead is averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry as the third-down specialist and provides Brady with another capable target out of the backfield.
The Lions will attempt to neutralize Brady, who's been sacked only twice over the past four weeks, with a stout pass rush anchored by rookie sensation Ndamukong Suh (41 tackles, 1 INT), who's amassed seven sacks from his interior tackle position through his first 10 games as a pro. Experienced end Kyle Vanden Bosch (49 tackles, 4 sacks) is another accomplished disruptor on a unit that's racked up a solid 27 sacks for the year, and Detroit hopes to have speed rusher Cliff Avril (19 tackles, 4 sacks) back this week from a quadriceps injury that's sidelined him for the past two contests.
Cornerback Alphonso Smith (37 tackles, 5 INT, 8 PD) is the standout of a young secondary that was burned for three touchdown passes by Dallas' Jon Kitna in Sunday's loss, and the Lions could use some shoring up in the area of run defense, as they've allowed an average of 130.6 rushing yards per game (26th overall) thus far. Detroit permitted 134 yards on the ground to a usually-stagnant Cowboys' rushing attack in Week 11, with Suh leading the team with eight tackles and linebackers DeAndre Levy (29 tackles) and Julian Peterson (57 tackles, 1 sack) each coming up with seven stops.
• WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------
Despite only having had the brittle Stafford available for one full game and parts of two others, Detroit still has compiled the sixth-most passing yards in the league (268.9 ypg) this season. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill (1921 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) has been quite serviceable as a fill-in, with the offseason pickup averaging 290 yards through the air in the six outings he's started and completed. He's got plenty of quality options to work with, including an unquestioned No. 1 receiver in the freakishly-talented Calvin Johnson (55 receptions, 725 yards), a 6-foot-5, 236-pound matchup nightmare who paces the NFC with 10 touchdown catches.
Ex-Seahawk Nate Burleson (37 receptions, 4 TD) has shown to be a very good complement to Johnson, and the free-agent addition is coming off a seven-reception, 97-yard effort against the Cowboys, while promising youngster Brandon Pettigrew (50 receptions, 3 TD) is developing into one of the game's top all-around tight ends during a breakthrough sophomore campaign. The 2009 first-round selection is tied for the NFL lead in catches at his position and delivered eight grabs totaling 75 yards last week. Morris (41 rushing yards, 11 receptions) will step into the featured back's role if Best is unable to go, with fullback Jerome Felton (50 rushing yards) and little-used second-year man Aaron Brown (22 rushing yards, 4 receptions) also factoring into the mix. None possesses Best's explosiveness or pass-catching skills, as the rookie's 375 receiving yards ranks fourth among running backs this year.
Hill should be able to find some holes in a New England defense that's given up the second-most passing yards in the NFL (289.6 ypg) as well as a league- worst 69.4 completion percentage, with Manning putting up a massive 396 yards and tossing four touchdown strikes against the young secondary last week. Still, the Patriots were able to force three critical interceptions in the big win, and a pass rush that generated five sacks in the Week 10 victory at Pittsburgh managed to throw Manning out of rhythm on several occasions.
Lineman Mike Wright (14 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (30 tackles, 3 sacks) have been the team's best pressure creators, while rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (54 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PD) has displayed considerable improvement after struggling at the outset of his pro debut. Don't anticipate the Lions getting their 31st-ranked running game (80.5 ypg) untracked on a pretty sound front seven headed up by ultra-active inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (120 tackles, 1 sack) and two-time All-Pro nose tackle Vince Wilfork (34 tackles). Mayo is the league's leading tackler by a wide margin and came up with a game-high 15 stops (11 solo) versus the Colts.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Pats take their amazing magical act on the road as they continue to win games through smoke and mirrors with a team that allows 62 YPG more than it gains on the season. Through it all Billy’s kids are 8-2 this campaign, currently tied atop the AFC East with the Jets. Good news for New England fans is the fact that Turkey Day favorites off back-to-back wins are a mindboggling 14-1 ATS since 1987.
Meanwhile, the Lions have been basted like the turkeys they are on Thanksgiving Day, going 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years. We should also mention the Patriots’ glossy 9-1 SU and ATS mark on the road in games off back-to-back wins against opponents off back-to-back losses.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New England by 4.5; O/U 54
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New England -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New England -3.97
______________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 19.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 21.1, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 23.3, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.7, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 38-22 OVER (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 21.6, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--DETROIT is 33-18 OVER (+13.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 18.6, OPPONENT 27.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 19.9, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 8.7, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 30-12 against the 1rst half line (+16.8 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.5, OPPONENT 8.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 37-19 against the 1rst half line (+16.7 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.7, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 13.9, OPPONENT 8.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 31-14 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 9.4, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.8, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.7, Opponent 9.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (57-42).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DETROIT) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(28-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-22 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 21.2, Opponent 24 (Average point differential = -2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (32.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (69-41).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 22.7 (Total points scored = 45.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (72-53).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DETROIT) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.4, Opponent 12.1 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (90-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (197-152).
StatSystems Report 11/25 cont.
*** NEW ORLEANS (-3.5, O/U 51) @ DALLAS ***
----------------------------------------------------------
It took two very rough months and a major shakeup in leadership, but the Dallas Cowboys are finally beginning to play like the feared contender they were envisioned to be at the outset of this 2010 campaign. The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, appear to have regained the form that earned them a Super Bowl title a season ago. In a clash of 2009 division winners, the high-powered Saints will attempt to run their win streak to four straight games when the defending world champions storm into Cowboys Stadium this Thursday for a Thanksgiving Day tussle with a revitalized Dallas team that will be aiming for a third straight victory under new head coach Jason Garrett.
Although a shocking 1-7 start that triggered the dismissal of Wade Phillips has practically taken the Cowboys out of the mix for a playoff berth, they've quickly morphed into a dangerous spoiler with Garrett now in charge. Dallas has won both of its games under the direction of the elevated ex-Phillips assistant, following up an surprising 33-20 road ousting of the previously- surging New York Giants in Garrett's Week 10 debut with last Sunday's 35-19 home triumph over Detroit.
The Cowboys trailed the Lions by a 12-7 count early in the third quarter before ripping off 28 second-half points to forge ahead. Rookie cornerback Bryan McCann ignited the comeback with a tide-turning 97-yard punt return, while Jon Kitna accounted for four touchdowns in the journeyman quarterback's second straight outstanding performance under center. Kitna, forced into signal-calling duties after Pro Bowl triggerman Tony Romo fractured his collarbone in an Oct. 25 loss to the Giants, seems to have benefited the most from Garrett's promotion. The 38-year-old threw for 327 yards and three scores in the previous week's win over New York, and completed a sharp 18-for-24 passes without a turnover to help push Dallas past his former Detroit mates.
Garrett's biggest test of his young coaching tenure could come this week, as the Saints have gotten on quite a roll of their own following a somewhat sluggish 4-3 beginning. New Orleans has won three in a row since, including a signature 20-10 verdict over a high-caliber Pittsburgh club back in Week 8, to boost its prospects for a return trip to the postseason. An offense that was among the NFL's most diverse and potent attacks during last year's championship run has kicked into high gear over the course of the current tear. The Saints piled up a season-best 494 total yards in last week's 35-19 besting of Seattle, with standout quarterback Drew Brees leading the outburst with a 382-yard, four-touchdown display through the air.
New Orleans managed to inflict all that damage upon the Seahawks despite missing three key contributors in running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas and tight end Jeremy Shockey. At least one of those players appears set to return on Thursday, as Bush has practiced without limitations this week and pronounced himself fully recovered from a fractured fibula that's kept the versatile former University of Southern California star out since the season's second game.
The Saints are riding their longest regular-season win streak since prevailing in the first 13 contests of the 2009 schedule. That run was stopped with a 24-17 loss to the Cowboys in the Louisiana Superdome last December, in which Romo threw for 312 yards and the Dallas defense forced three turnovers. The Cowboys will be out to extend another impressive streak when they take the field for their annual Turkey Day home game. Dallas has won four straight Thanksgiving tilts by a combined 130-29 margin, with each of those victories coming by at least 17 points.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
Dallas has won 15 of its 23 all-time meetings with New Orleans and snapped a five-game losing streak in the series with a 24-17 victory at the Superdome during Week 15 of last season, a game in which the Saints came in with a perfect 13-0 record. New Orleans had lost in each of its first nine lifetime visits to Dallas prior to a 27-13 triumph at Texas Stadium in 2004, and dealt the Cowboys a humbling 42-17 defeat in the Lone Star State two years later. Saints head coach Sean Payton, an assistant under Bill Parcells with Dallas from 2003 to 2005, is 1-1 against his one-time employer as a head coach. Garrett will be opposing both Payton and New Orleans for the first time as a head man.
• WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------------------
As Brees (2969 passing yards, 22 TD, 14 INT) goes, so goes the New Orleans offense, and that adage has certainly rang true during the team's present surge. The deadly-accurate quarterback has averaged nearly 315 passing yards and connected on a sizzling 69 percent of his attempts over the last three wins, while delivering eight touchdown strikes to bring his NFC-leading total to 22. The All-Pro field general is aided by a wealth of quality options in directing the NFL's fourth-ranked aerial assault (296.9 ypg), as seven Saints players have garnered 23 receptions or more this year, and another would be added to that list if Bush (9 receptions, 1 TD) -- one of the game's better receiving backs -- is indeed ready to go.
Brees' unquestioned go-to guy remains physical wideout Marques Colston (62 receptions, 705 yards, 4 TD), who showed off his tremendous skills with an eight-catch, 113-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Seahawks last week. Shockey (31 receptions, 3 TD) is questionable to make it back from a rib injury sustained in a Week 9 rout of Carolina, but promising rookie Jimmy Graham (13 receptions, 1 TD) stepped in ably by registering personal highs of five grabs and 72 receiving yards last Sunday. With 2009 leading rusher Thomas still bothered by a troublesome ankle sprain, expect powerful rookie Chris Ivory (481 rushing yards, 1 TD) to handle the bulk of the carries on Thursday and Bush to be sprinkled in. Ivory ran for 99 yards on 23 attempts and scored his first career touchdown in the Seattle game.
Brees could be in line for a field day when he takes on an underachieving Dallas stop unit that's 30th in the NFL in pass efficiency defense and has surrendered a troubling 22 touchdowns through the air, the second-highest total in the league. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (43 tackles, 2 INT) and Mike Jenkins (38 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) each went to the Pro Bowl a year ago, but both have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency throughout this season, and safeties Gerald Sensabaugh (46 tackles, 1 INT) and Alan Ball (34 tackles, 1 INT) have allowed their share of big plays as well.
One member who has lived up to his reputation is outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (41 tackles), who once again stands among the league leaders with 8 1/2 sacks and had a monster game in last December's win over the Saints, taking down Brees twice and forcing a pair of fumbles. The Cowboys haven't been anything special against the run either, ranking 22nd overall in that department (117.3 ypg), but did manage to limit Detroit's anemic ground game to 75 yards last week. Veteran inside linebacker Keith Brooking (73 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) spearheaded the charge by making a team-best 11 tackles.
• WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
-------------------------------------------------
Even with Romo having been shelved over the past month, a Dallas offense that's fifth in the NFL in passing yards (282.8 ypg) remains a crew that commands respect due to its vast array of weapons. Kitna (1223 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) has been a more than capable substitute over the past two weeks, while the one-two punch of Miles Austin (49 receptions, 732 yards, 5 TD) and dazzling rookie Dez Bryant (44 receptions, 6 TD) could be on the verge of becoming the best wide receiver duo in the league. The outstanding pair teamed up for three touchdown grabs against the Lions last week, and Bryant has found the end zone in three consecutive contests. Six-time Pro Bowler Jason Witten (50 receptions, 3 TD) is as good as they come at the tight end position as well.
The Cowboys haven't been very effective or persistent running the football, having attempted the second-fewest rush attempts while averaging a meager 83.9 yards per game on the ground (29th overall), but did produce a respectable 134 yards in last Sunday's triumph. Speedster Felix Jones (404 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 1 TD) is the team's best threat out of the backfield, with bruiser Marion Barber (294 rushing yards, 2 TD, 9 receptions) utilized primarily in a short-yardage role or to close out games.
While New Orleans is more renowned for its quick-strike offense, they've been quite sound on the other side of the ball for the majority of this season. The Saints have yielded the fourth-fewest points in the league (17.0 ppg) and are second overall against the pass (186.3 ypg), although Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck did amass 366 yards on the group last week with the Seahawks in comeback mode for much of the afternoon. New Orleans will be entering Thursday's showdown with some injury concerns, however.
Playmaking free safety Darren Sharper is likely to miss a second straight game with a strained hamstring, while valued backup Malcolm Jenkins (45 tackles, 1 sack, 8 PD) status is iffy due to a neck stinger. Tackle Sedrick Ellis (24 tackles, 4 sacks), the team's leader in sacks, is also considered questionable after hurting his quadriceps against the Seahawks, and that would be a significant loss to a defense that's only gotten to the quarterback 19 times all year. Middle linebacker and 2009 Pro Bowler Jonathan Vilma (62 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and hard-hitting strong safety Roman Harper (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are the top run stoppers of a contingent that held Seattle to a pedestrian 58 rushing yards last Sunday.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
While we’re on the subject of giving thanks this day, the staff at Stat/Systems Sports would like to extend our gratitude to you our loyal reader, and to the Cowboys for showing up for work on this holiday. As it is, they have rewarded their backers rather handsomely, going 13-2 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Thursday when playing off a win, including 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which Dallas owns a win percentage of .700 or less on the season.
While New Orleans is making its Butterball Day debut, the Saints are 0-2-2 ATS in the four Thursday games they’ve appeared. Toss in a dash of N’Awlins’ 1-7-1 ATS mark in the first of back-to-back road games, and add the fact that the dog in this series has won each of the last six games straight up!
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 1; O/U 47
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -2.31
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 32-14 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 24.5, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.1, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 28-49 ATS (-25.8 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.7, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-12 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.6, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 29-10 OVER (+18.0 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 25.7, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.0, OPPONENT 31.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 OVER (+13.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.9, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 10-23 against the 1rst half line (-15.2 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 9.9, OPPONENT 9.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 10-33 against the 1rst half line (-26.3 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 8.6, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 15-32 against the 1rst half line (-20.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.9, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 15.5, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 34-16 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 12.2, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 22.7 (Total points scored = 45.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (72-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.5, Opponent 23.7 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (61.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (80-56).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DALLAS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.4, Opponent 12.1 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (90-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (197-152).
*** NEW ORLEANS (-3.5, O/U 51) @ DALLAS ***
----------------------------------------------------------
It took two very rough months and a major shakeup in leadership, but the Dallas Cowboys are finally beginning to play like the feared contender they were envisioned to be at the outset of this 2010 campaign. The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, appear to have regained the form that earned them a Super Bowl title a season ago. In a clash of 2009 division winners, the high-powered Saints will attempt to run their win streak to four straight games when the defending world champions storm into Cowboys Stadium this Thursday for a Thanksgiving Day tussle with a revitalized Dallas team that will be aiming for a third straight victory under new head coach Jason Garrett.
Although a shocking 1-7 start that triggered the dismissal of Wade Phillips has practically taken the Cowboys out of the mix for a playoff berth, they've quickly morphed into a dangerous spoiler with Garrett now in charge. Dallas has won both of its games under the direction of the elevated ex-Phillips assistant, following up an surprising 33-20 road ousting of the previously- surging New York Giants in Garrett's Week 10 debut with last Sunday's 35-19 home triumph over Detroit.
The Cowboys trailed the Lions by a 12-7 count early in the third quarter before ripping off 28 second-half points to forge ahead. Rookie cornerback Bryan McCann ignited the comeback with a tide-turning 97-yard punt return, while Jon Kitna accounted for four touchdowns in the journeyman quarterback's second straight outstanding performance under center. Kitna, forced into signal-calling duties after Pro Bowl triggerman Tony Romo fractured his collarbone in an Oct. 25 loss to the Giants, seems to have benefited the most from Garrett's promotion. The 38-year-old threw for 327 yards and three scores in the previous week's win over New York, and completed a sharp 18-for-24 passes without a turnover to help push Dallas past his former Detroit mates.
Garrett's biggest test of his young coaching tenure could come this week, as the Saints have gotten on quite a roll of their own following a somewhat sluggish 4-3 beginning. New Orleans has won three in a row since, including a signature 20-10 verdict over a high-caliber Pittsburgh club back in Week 8, to boost its prospects for a return trip to the postseason. An offense that was among the NFL's most diverse and potent attacks during last year's championship run has kicked into high gear over the course of the current tear. The Saints piled up a season-best 494 total yards in last week's 35-19 besting of Seattle, with standout quarterback Drew Brees leading the outburst with a 382-yard, four-touchdown display through the air.
New Orleans managed to inflict all that damage upon the Seahawks despite missing three key contributors in running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas and tight end Jeremy Shockey. At least one of those players appears set to return on Thursday, as Bush has practiced without limitations this week and pronounced himself fully recovered from a fractured fibula that's kept the versatile former University of Southern California star out since the season's second game.
The Saints are riding their longest regular-season win streak since prevailing in the first 13 contests of the 2009 schedule. That run was stopped with a 24-17 loss to the Cowboys in the Louisiana Superdome last December, in which Romo threw for 312 yards and the Dallas defense forced three turnovers. The Cowboys will be out to extend another impressive streak when they take the field for their annual Turkey Day home game. Dallas has won four straight Thanksgiving tilts by a combined 130-29 margin, with each of those victories coming by at least 17 points.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
Dallas has won 15 of its 23 all-time meetings with New Orleans and snapped a five-game losing streak in the series with a 24-17 victory at the Superdome during Week 15 of last season, a game in which the Saints came in with a perfect 13-0 record. New Orleans had lost in each of its first nine lifetime visits to Dallas prior to a 27-13 triumph at Texas Stadium in 2004, and dealt the Cowboys a humbling 42-17 defeat in the Lone Star State two years later. Saints head coach Sean Payton, an assistant under Bill Parcells with Dallas from 2003 to 2005, is 1-1 against his one-time employer as a head coach. Garrett will be opposing both Payton and New Orleans for the first time as a head man.
• WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------------------
As Brees (2969 passing yards, 22 TD, 14 INT) goes, so goes the New Orleans offense, and that adage has certainly rang true during the team's present surge. The deadly-accurate quarterback has averaged nearly 315 passing yards and connected on a sizzling 69 percent of his attempts over the last three wins, while delivering eight touchdown strikes to bring his NFC-leading total to 22. The All-Pro field general is aided by a wealth of quality options in directing the NFL's fourth-ranked aerial assault (296.9 ypg), as seven Saints players have garnered 23 receptions or more this year, and another would be added to that list if Bush (9 receptions, 1 TD) -- one of the game's better receiving backs -- is indeed ready to go.
Brees' unquestioned go-to guy remains physical wideout Marques Colston (62 receptions, 705 yards, 4 TD), who showed off his tremendous skills with an eight-catch, 113-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Seahawks last week. Shockey (31 receptions, 3 TD) is questionable to make it back from a rib injury sustained in a Week 9 rout of Carolina, but promising rookie Jimmy Graham (13 receptions, 1 TD) stepped in ably by registering personal highs of five grabs and 72 receiving yards last Sunday. With 2009 leading rusher Thomas still bothered by a troublesome ankle sprain, expect powerful rookie Chris Ivory (481 rushing yards, 1 TD) to handle the bulk of the carries on Thursday and Bush to be sprinkled in. Ivory ran for 99 yards on 23 attempts and scored his first career touchdown in the Seattle game.
Brees could be in line for a field day when he takes on an underachieving Dallas stop unit that's 30th in the NFL in pass efficiency defense and has surrendered a troubling 22 touchdowns through the air, the second-highest total in the league. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (43 tackles, 2 INT) and Mike Jenkins (38 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) each went to the Pro Bowl a year ago, but both have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency throughout this season, and safeties Gerald Sensabaugh (46 tackles, 1 INT) and Alan Ball (34 tackles, 1 INT) have allowed their share of big plays as well.
One member who has lived up to his reputation is outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (41 tackles), who once again stands among the league leaders with 8 1/2 sacks and had a monster game in last December's win over the Saints, taking down Brees twice and forcing a pair of fumbles. The Cowboys haven't been anything special against the run either, ranking 22nd overall in that department (117.3 ypg), but did manage to limit Detroit's anemic ground game to 75 yards last week. Veteran inside linebacker Keith Brooking (73 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) spearheaded the charge by making a team-best 11 tackles.
• WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
-------------------------------------------------
Even with Romo having been shelved over the past month, a Dallas offense that's fifth in the NFL in passing yards (282.8 ypg) remains a crew that commands respect due to its vast array of weapons. Kitna (1223 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) has been a more than capable substitute over the past two weeks, while the one-two punch of Miles Austin (49 receptions, 732 yards, 5 TD) and dazzling rookie Dez Bryant (44 receptions, 6 TD) could be on the verge of becoming the best wide receiver duo in the league. The outstanding pair teamed up for three touchdown grabs against the Lions last week, and Bryant has found the end zone in three consecutive contests. Six-time Pro Bowler Jason Witten (50 receptions, 3 TD) is as good as they come at the tight end position as well.
The Cowboys haven't been very effective or persistent running the football, having attempted the second-fewest rush attempts while averaging a meager 83.9 yards per game on the ground (29th overall), but did produce a respectable 134 yards in last Sunday's triumph. Speedster Felix Jones (404 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 1 TD) is the team's best threat out of the backfield, with bruiser Marion Barber (294 rushing yards, 2 TD, 9 receptions) utilized primarily in a short-yardage role or to close out games.
While New Orleans is more renowned for its quick-strike offense, they've been quite sound on the other side of the ball for the majority of this season. The Saints have yielded the fourth-fewest points in the league (17.0 ppg) and are second overall against the pass (186.3 ypg), although Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck did amass 366 yards on the group last week with the Seahawks in comeback mode for much of the afternoon. New Orleans will be entering Thursday's showdown with some injury concerns, however.
Playmaking free safety Darren Sharper is likely to miss a second straight game with a strained hamstring, while valued backup Malcolm Jenkins (45 tackles, 1 sack, 8 PD) status is iffy due to a neck stinger. Tackle Sedrick Ellis (24 tackles, 4 sacks), the team's leader in sacks, is also considered questionable after hurting his quadriceps against the Seahawks, and that would be a significant loss to a defense that's only gotten to the quarterback 19 times all year. Middle linebacker and 2009 Pro Bowler Jonathan Vilma (62 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and hard-hitting strong safety Roman Harper (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) are the top run stoppers of a contingent that held Seattle to a pedestrian 58 rushing yards last Sunday.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
While we’re on the subject of giving thanks this day, the staff at Stat/Systems Sports would like to extend our gratitude to you our loyal reader, and to the Cowboys for showing up for work on this holiday. As it is, they have rewarded their backers rather handsomely, going 13-2 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Thursday when playing off a win, including 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which Dallas owns a win percentage of .700 or less on the season.
While New Orleans is making its Butterball Day debut, the Saints are 0-2-2 ATS in the four Thursday games they’ve appeared. Toss in a dash of N’Awlins’ 1-7-1 ATS mark in the first of back-to-back road games, and add the fact that the dog in this series has won each of the last six games straight up!
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Orleans by 1; O/U 47
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -2.31
_____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 32-14 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 24.5, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.1, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 28-49 ATS (-25.8 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.7, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-12 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.6, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 29-10 OVER (+18.0 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 25.7, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 25.0, OPPONENT 31.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 OVER (+13.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 22.9, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 10-23 against the 1rst half line (-15.2 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 9.9, OPPONENT 9.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 10-33 against the 1rst half line (-26.3 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 8.6, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 15-32 against the 1rst half line (-20.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 10.9, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 15.5, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 34-16 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 12.2, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 22.7 (Total points scored = 45.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (63.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (72-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.5, Opponent 23.7 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (61.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (80-56).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (DALLAS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games.
(55-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +35.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 21.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.4, Opponent 12.1 (Total first half points scored = 25.5)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (90-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (197-152).
StatSystems Report 11/25 cont.
*** CINCINNATI @ NY JETS (-8.5, O/U 43.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
Seems a lot longer than 10 months, doesn't it? Just after the calendar turned from 2009 to 2010 last winter, the New York Jets visited the Cincinnati Bengals for round one of the AFC Playoffs in a matchup that for all intents and purposes looked like it might occur again come postseason time this January. The high-flying Bengals were coming off an unbeaten record in their games against the always-rugged AFC North Division, while the Jets were just beginning a Cinderella playoff run that ultimately got them within 30 minutes of an unlikely trip to Miami for the Super Bowl.
But when these two outfits meet up after holiday dinner this Thursday in northern New Jersey, the agendas will differ. Defending AFC North champion Cincinnati has endured a 2010 season it'd rather forget, plummeting quickly from a 2-1 start with seven consecutive losses and already looking to next year while head coach Marvin Lewis tries to survive amid a locker room filled with abrasiveness and a training room filled with injuries. Defensive tackle Tank Johnson went on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday with a knee problem, becoming the third Bengals player to be shelved this week -- joining safety Chris Crocker and defensive end Frostee Rucker.
The team's current skid was extended this past Sunday against Buffalo, when the Bengals saw a 17-point halftime lead against a one-win foe become an embarrassing 49-31 loss after the Bills scored 35 unanswered points in front of 55,654 dumbfounded fans alongside the Ohio River. "I see a future here. For everybody involved, I want this thing," said Lewis, whose contract expires at the end of the season, after the game. "I haven't got done what I came here to do, and I failed them. But we're still doing it, and we're going to keep on doing it and just keep working at it. "This has not been the season we all wanted, but it is where we are right now. I think we continue. My guys coach very hard, and that's not going to change."
Discussions on a contract extension for Lewis have not progressed substantially, leaving some to believe his fate will match that of predecessor Dick LeBeau, whose deal was not renewed at the end of 2002. Cincinnati won eight or more games in each of Lewis' first four seasons, but followed up with seven and four wins in 2007 and 2008, respectively, before the resurgence last year. Sam Wyche is the franchise's all-time wins leader with 61, while Lewis has 58. "Our margin for error is so slight right now that every little mistake we have ends up being a huge difference for us," Lewis said. "We have to work. We have to play physically stronger. I think that's important."
As for the Jets, finishing has been their specialty as of late. New York added yet another heart-stopper to an already cardiac-laden 2010 schedule last Sunday, when they drove the length of the field with no timeouts remaining in the final minute to defeat Houston, 30-27, on home turf at New Meadowlands Stadium. Head coach Rex Ryan and Co. were coming off consecutive road overtime wins at Detroit and Cleveland and improved to 8-2 overall, maintaining a share of both first place in the AFC East and the top spot in the conference with their perennial rivals from the northern reaches of the Atlantic corridor, the New England Patriots.
The nail-biting wins have many deriding the team, labeling it more lucky than good. "I hope I have to explain 9-2. That would be fine with me," Ryan said earlier this week. "It really would be. When it’s all said and done, we know how it’s added up at the end of the year. "It's based on wins and losses and nobody cares about anything else. They don't care if you have injuries. They don't care if it’s a home game, road game or if you're wearing green-on-green. It makes no difference. They're going to count it all the same."
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Jets own a 14-7 advantage in their all-time regular-season series with Cincinnati and have prevailed in the past two non-playoff matchups between the clubs, the most recent being a 37-0 shellacking at the Meadowlands in the 2009 finale. That win clinched a playoff berth for New York and set up a rematch with the Bengals in Cincinnati the following week. The Bengals have lost seven of their last eight meetings with the Jets, with the lone win over that span a 38-31 home verdict in 2007, as well as eight in a row as the visitor.
Cincinnati last beat the Jets on the road back in 1981, a 31-30 decision at Shea Stadium. As previously noted, New York also ended Cincinnati's 2009 season with a 24-14 besting at Paul Brown Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs, and dealt the Bengals a 44-17 defeat in the opening round of the 1982 postseason as well.
Including last season's playoff loss, Lewis is 1-4 lifetime against the Jets, while Ryan is 2-0 in head-to-head encounters with both Lewis and the Bengals. Lewis and Ryan were both members of the Baltimore Ravens staff from 1999-2001, with each earning a Super Bowl ring as part of that organization's 2000 championship squad.
• WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati's offense ranks 14th in the NFL with an average of 346.2 yards per game, but its 22 turnovers haven't helped matters much and the team is coming off a contest where it gave the ball away three more times. The primary culprit of the Bengals' turnover woes is QB Carson Palmer, whose numbers are deceiving when one accounts for his 13 interceptions in 10 games. He's still completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 2,625 yards and 18 touchdowns, but his miscues are part of the reason the 2010 campaign has been a failure thus far.
Palmer is playing the right team to cure his turnover troubles, however, as the Jets are at the lower end of the league with just five interceptions. Additionally, the Bengals still sport one of the more productive wide receiving tandems in Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. The duo has combined for 1,484 yards and 12 touchdowns and need to be accounted for at all times. Palmer may also be able to remain upright, as the Bengals have yielded only 19 sacks this season, which is slightly above average.
The Jets, meanwhile, have recorded only 21 sacks, though it's still more than twice the number logged by the Bengals (10) this season. New York gives up an average of 220 yards through the air -- only 16th in the NFL -- and has been gashed at times by teams with more than one legitimate receiving threat. The Jets' run defense is by far its strength, having up just 90.3 rushing yards per game that is fifth-best among the 32 teams and less than three yards away from third overall.
Bengals running back Cedric Benson, who ran for a career-high 1,251 yards in just 13 games last season, reemerged last week to go for 124 yards against the Bills. He's also fumbled five times -- losing four -- after coughing up the ball only once in all of 2009.
• WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------
Sunday's win gave quarterback Mark Sanchez a 16-9 mark through his first 25 starts as a Jet, tying him with Chad Pennington for the second-best record by a signal-caller over that period in franchise history, trailing only Vinny Testaverde's 19-6 run from 1998-2000. New York is 7-0 this season when Sanchez has at least one touchdown pass. Veteran running back LaDainian Tomlinson played in career game No. 151 last week and now has 17,452 scrimmage yards, the third-most of any player at that stage of a career.
Tomlinson leads all AFC running backs in 2010 with 43 receptions as well, having caught seven balls from Sanchez in the rally against Houston. Among the traditional air targets, wide receiver Braylon Edwards is averaging more than 18 yards per reception this year and hauled in a 42-yard throw from Sanchez one play before counterpart Santonio Holmes grabbed the game-winning touchdown pass last week. Tight end Dustin Keller is second in the AFC and fourth in the league with 479 receiving yards from his position. No. 3 wideout Jerricho Cotchery missed last week with a groin injury and is questionable for Thursday.
The Bengals are 18th in the league with a 341.3 yards per game clip against them for the season, while the scoring barrage by the Bills bumped the points per game average to 26.2, just 26th-best in the league. Both passers and runners have thrived against them, with Cincinnati ranking 23rd against the run (118.3 ypg) and 18th against the pass (223.0 ypg). The Jets' rate of 145.9 rushing yards per game is fourth in the NFL. Linebacker Dhani Jones leads the team with 81 tackles, including 59 solo stops, while the now-unavailable Crocker had a team-best two sacks. Cornerback Leon Hall has four interceptions, including one with a season-best 22-yard return.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
The luckiest, or arguably the best, team in the NFL hosts the most dysfunctional when the Jets host the Bengals with Cincinnati looking to avenge last year’s opening round playoff loss in this Thanksgiving night affair on the NFL network. While making a case for the avenging Bengals would appear to be to right thing to do, we headed right to our database for answers and dug up this tidbit!
Thanksgiving Day home favorites off a win are 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS, including 5-0 SU and ATS when they own a win percentage of .800 or greater... Favorites of more than 7 points on this day of giving thanks are 15-3 ATS, including 12-0 ATS the last twelve.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York 6.5; O/U 44
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -8.38
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 16-37 ATS (-24.4 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 17.2, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CINCINNATI is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.3, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 19.2, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.2, OPPONENT 32.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 53-30 UNDER (+19.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 17.0, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 39-21 UNDER (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 18.8, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was NY JETS 28.6, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was NY JETS 28.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 19-5 OVER (+13.5 Units) after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 20.0, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 27-12 against the 1rst half line (+13.7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.1, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-22 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.6, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.5 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 9.4, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 27-11 UNDER (+14.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.1, OPPONENT 7.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.6, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins.
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (9-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.7
The average score in these games was: Team 18.9, Opponent 23.1 (Average point differential = -4.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (NY JETS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(41-11 since 1983.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 4.8 (Average first half point differential = +11.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
___________________________________________
Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** TEXAS A&M (-3.5, O/U 47.5) @ TEXAS ***
-------------------------------------------------------
Fresh off a statement victory, the 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies will attempt to carry the momentum into Thursday's Big 12 Conference clash with the Texas Longhorns. In front of a raucous home crowd last weekend, the Aggies put forth a stellar defensive effort and knocked off mighty Nebraska by a 9-6 final. That win was the fifth in a row for A&M, which has obviously bounced back strong from a three-game losing streak. The club is 8-3 and will undoubtedly play in a strong non-BCS bowl, but a victory over Texas this weekend would obviously do wonders for the A&M program.
It is hard to believe that Texas, which played in the national title game last season, has more losses than wins heading into this regular-season finale. At 5-6, the Longhorns need a victory just to become bowl eligible. Last weekend, the club was happy to step outside of Big 12 play to battle an inferior Florida Atlantic squad, as a 51-17 victory halted a four-game skid. "Coaches, players, everybody - they've been so beaten down," says Texas coach Mack Brown of all the negative attention directed toward his players and coaches because of the disappointing season.
Texas A&M failed to score a single touchdown against Nebraska last weekend, and the offense managed to make good on just 2-of-13 third-down conversion attempts. Still, Cyrus Gray deserves a great deal of credit for the victory, as he ran the ball 26 times for 137 yards and caught nine passes for 65 yards. "I would say extraordinary," said Sherman when asked to describe Gray's performance "With his catches and his runs and picking the holes. If he didn't play the game he did we wouldn't have been able to kick the field goals. Nothing he ever does surprises me. I'm not shocked looking at his stats."
Gray is the first Aggie running back in 20 years to have five straight 100- yard rushing games, and he has 396 rushing yards in the three games since fellow tailback Christine Michael broke his leg. A&M didn't commit a single turnover against Nebraska, key to the win. Give plenty of credit to the swarming Texas A&M defense for holding a potent Nebraska offense to 306 total yards. The Cornhuskers are one of the best running teams in the nation, but they managed a mere 3.8 yards per carry against the Aggies. A&M came through with two big interceptions in that tilt.
Through 11 outings, the Aggies are generating 32.5 ppg and 455.0 total ypg. Ryan Tannehill, who has replaced the turnover-prone Jerrod Johnson as the club's quarterback, has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards and 10 scores with only three interceptions. Gray has run for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, while Jeff Fuller has 11 receiving scores. Fuller needs just 41 yards to reach the 1,000-yard plateau.
Defensively, A&M is limiting opponents to 20.6 ppg and 357.4 total ypg, numbers that have certainly improved significantly during the five game winning streak. The Aggies are tough against both means of attack, limiting foes to 3.3 rushing ypc and 9.6 yards per pass completion. With 20 takeaways and 25 sacks, A&M has certainly registered some impact plays. Michael Hodges leads the Aggies with 98 total tackles, while Von Fuller has 7.5 sacks to his credit.
Under Coach Brown, Texas has seemingly always featured a high-powered offensive attack, but that clearly isn't the case this season. Sure, the 24.4 ppg and 384.6 total ypg are respectable, but strong performances against weak opposition have been offset by sluggish efforts against quality teams. Brown has stuck with Garrett Gilbert, and the quarterback has struggled mightily. Gilbert has thrown only nine touchdown passes with 15 interceptions and he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes, a far cry from what Colt McCoy was able to do last season. James Kirkendoll leads the Texas receivers with 45 catches for 655 yards and two scores, while Cody Johnson paces the backfield with 485 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
Opponents are scoring 23.6 ppg against Texas, which is allowing only 294.2 total ypg. Clearly, the defense has remained strong, yielding a mere 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and limiting passing yardage as well. Texas has committed 26 turnovers this season, and those giveaways have often put the defense in vulnerable positions. While the Longhorns have only posted 16 of their own takeaways, they have notched 29 sacks and continue to battle. Keep an eye on Sam Acho, as he has registered nine sacks.
Gilbert certainly needed a good performance against Florida Atlantic to boost his confidence, and the first-year starter threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions while also running for 60 yards and a score. Kirkendoll finished with four catches for 123 yards and a touchdown, while Johnson ran for 124 yards and a score. "I thought it would give him great confidence going into Thursday," said Brown of Johnson's heavy workload. "We've needed a back around here to carry the load." Meanwhile, the Texas defense limited FAU to 298 total yards and came up with three takeaways.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
While A&M doesn’t have to deal with the Colt McCoys this season, they do have to face a Texas squad that has won and covered six of the last seven in this series in Austin. They must also do it in the rare role of favorite. The Longhorns have been favored in each of the previous 11 meetings, including a three-touchdown choice last season in College Station and as 35.5-point chalk just two years ago on this field.
This role change is even too much for the improving Aggies, who, by the way, are just 1-11 ATS in weekday road games and 1-3 ATS after battling Nebraska. The Horns have never been home for the Holidays since ol’ Mackey took over the program in 1998 and his 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark in Last Home Games at Texas suggests they won’t gift-wrap this one for the surging Aggies. "Texas’ 4-1 ATS mark as weekday dogs is reassuring but the bottom line is that the Horns need it!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Texas A&M by 2; O/U 49.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Texas A&M -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Texas A&M -1.19
______________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 36.5, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 25-47 ATS (-26.6 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 24.0, OPPONENT 27.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--TEXAS A&M is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games off a home win since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 23.6, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 42-23 OVER (+16.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 36.6, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 33.1, OPPONENT 38.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 33.1, OPPONENT 38.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 31.1, OPPONENT 39.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 32.5, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 12-28 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 16.2, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was TEXAS 9.6, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 12-33 against the 1rst half line (-24.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 11.1, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 23-7 OVER (+15.3 Units) the 1rst half total vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 18.4, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 16.8, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 17.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(31-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.4
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 20 (Total points scored = 41.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (63.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-18).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (TEXAS A&M) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games.
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 29.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-16).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (49-25).
--PLAY ON - A home team (TEXAS) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.
(29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (29-10 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.1, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = +5.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (27% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (43-18).
*** CINCINNATI @ NY JETS (-8.5, O/U 43.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
Seems a lot longer than 10 months, doesn't it? Just after the calendar turned from 2009 to 2010 last winter, the New York Jets visited the Cincinnati Bengals for round one of the AFC Playoffs in a matchup that for all intents and purposes looked like it might occur again come postseason time this January. The high-flying Bengals were coming off an unbeaten record in their games against the always-rugged AFC North Division, while the Jets were just beginning a Cinderella playoff run that ultimately got them within 30 minutes of an unlikely trip to Miami for the Super Bowl.
But when these two outfits meet up after holiday dinner this Thursday in northern New Jersey, the agendas will differ. Defending AFC North champion Cincinnati has endured a 2010 season it'd rather forget, plummeting quickly from a 2-1 start with seven consecutive losses and already looking to next year while head coach Marvin Lewis tries to survive amid a locker room filled with abrasiveness and a training room filled with injuries. Defensive tackle Tank Johnson went on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday with a knee problem, becoming the third Bengals player to be shelved this week -- joining safety Chris Crocker and defensive end Frostee Rucker.
The team's current skid was extended this past Sunday against Buffalo, when the Bengals saw a 17-point halftime lead against a one-win foe become an embarrassing 49-31 loss after the Bills scored 35 unanswered points in front of 55,654 dumbfounded fans alongside the Ohio River. "I see a future here. For everybody involved, I want this thing," said Lewis, whose contract expires at the end of the season, after the game. "I haven't got done what I came here to do, and I failed them. But we're still doing it, and we're going to keep on doing it and just keep working at it. "This has not been the season we all wanted, but it is where we are right now. I think we continue. My guys coach very hard, and that's not going to change."
Discussions on a contract extension for Lewis have not progressed substantially, leaving some to believe his fate will match that of predecessor Dick LeBeau, whose deal was not renewed at the end of 2002. Cincinnati won eight or more games in each of Lewis' first four seasons, but followed up with seven and four wins in 2007 and 2008, respectively, before the resurgence last year. Sam Wyche is the franchise's all-time wins leader with 61, while Lewis has 58. "Our margin for error is so slight right now that every little mistake we have ends up being a huge difference for us," Lewis said. "We have to work. We have to play physically stronger. I think that's important."
As for the Jets, finishing has been their specialty as of late. New York added yet another heart-stopper to an already cardiac-laden 2010 schedule last Sunday, when they drove the length of the field with no timeouts remaining in the final minute to defeat Houston, 30-27, on home turf at New Meadowlands Stadium. Head coach Rex Ryan and Co. were coming off consecutive road overtime wins at Detroit and Cleveland and improved to 8-2 overall, maintaining a share of both first place in the AFC East and the top spot in the conference with their perennial rivals from the northern reaches of the Atlantic corridor, the New England Patriots.
The nail-biting wins have many deriding the team, labeling it more lucky than good. "I hope I have to explain 9-2. That would be fine with me," Ryan said earlier this week. "It really would be. When it’s all said and done, we know how it’s added up at the end of the year. "It's based on wins and losses and nobody cares about anything else. They don't care if you have injuries. They don't care if it’s a home game, road game or if you're wearing green-on-green. It makes no difference. They're going to count it all the same."
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Jets own a 14-7 advantage in their all-time regular-season series with Cincinnati and have prevailed in the past two non-playoff matchups between the clubs, the most recent being a 37-0 shellacking at the Meadowlands in the 2009 finale. That win clinched a playoff berth for New York and set up a rematch with the Bengals in Cincinnati the following week. The Bengals have lost seven of their last eight meetings with the Jets, with the lone win over that span a 38-31 home verdict in 2007, as well as eight in a row as the visitor.
Cincinnati last beat the Jets on the road back in 1981, a 31-30 decision at Shea Stadium. As previously noted, New York also ended Cincinnati's 2009 season with a 24-14 besting at Paul Brown Stadium in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs, and dealt the Bengals a 44-17 defeat in the opening round of the 1982 postseason as well.
Including last season's playoff loss, Lewis is 1-4 lifetime against the Jets, while Ryan is 2-0 in head-to-head encounters with both Lewis and the Bengals. Lewis and Ryan were both members of the Baltimore Ravens staff from 1999-2001, with each earning a Super Bowl ring as part of that organization's 2000 championship squad.
• WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati's offense ranks 14th in the NFL with an average of 346.2 yards per game, but its 22 turnovers haven't helped matters much and the team is coming off a contest where it gave the ball away three more times. The primary culprit of the Bengals' turnover woes is QB Carson Palmer, whose numbers are deceiving when one accounts for his 13 interceptions in 10 games. He's still completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 2,625 yards and 18 touchdowns, but his miscues are part of the reason the 2010 campaign has been a failure thus far.
Palmer is playing the right team to cure his turnover troubles, however, as the Jets are at the lower end of the league with just five interceptions. Additionally, the Bengals still sport one of the more productive wide receiving tandems in Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. The duo has combined for 1,484 yards and 12 touchdowns and need to be accounted for at all times. Palmer may also be able to remain upright, as the Bengals have yielded only 19 sacks this season, which is slightly above average.
The Jets, meanwhile, have recorded only 21 sacks, though it's still more than twice the number logged by the Bengals (10) this season. New York gives up an average of 220 yards through the air -- only 16th in the NFL -- and has been gashed at times by teams with more than one legitimate receiving threat. The Jets' run defense is by far its strength, having up just 90.3 rushing yards per game that is fifth-best among the 32 teams and less than three yards away from third overall.
Bengals running back Cedric Benson, who ran for a career-high 1,251 yards in just 13 games last season, reemerged last week to go for 124 yards against the Bills. He's also fumbled five times -- losing four -- after coughing up the ball only once in all of 2009.
• WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------
Sunday's win gave quarterback Mark Sanchez a 16-9 mark through his first 25 starts as a Jet, tying him with Chad Pennington for the second-best record by a signal-caller over that period in franchise history, trailing only Vinny Testaverde's 19-6 run from 1998-2000. New York is 7-0 this season when Sanchez has at least one touchdown pass. Veteran running back LaDainian Tomlinson played in career game No. 151 last week and now has 17,452 scrimmage yards, the third-most of any player at that stage of a career.
Tomlinson leads all AFC running backs in 2010 with 43 receptions as well, having caught seven balls from Sanchez in the rally against Houston. Among the traditional air targets, wide receiver Braylon Edwards is averaging more than 18 yards per reception this year and hauled in a 42-yard throw from Sanchez one play before counterpart Santonio Holmes grabbed the game-winning touchdown pass last week. Tight end Dustin Keller is second in the AFC and fourth in the league with 479 receiving yards from his position. No. 3 wideout Jerricho Cotchery missed last week with a groin injury and is questionable for Thursday.
The Bengals are 18th in the league with a 341.3 yards per game clip against them for the season, while the scoring barrage by the Bills bumped the points per game average to 26.2, just 26th-best in the league. Both passers and runners have thrived against them, with Cincinnati ranking 23rd against the run (118.3 ypg) and 18th against the pass (223.0 ypg). The Jets' rate of 145.9 rushing yards per game is fourth in the NFL. Linebacker Dhani Jones leads the team with 81 tackles, including 59 solo stops, while the now-unavailable Crocker had a team-best two sacks. Cornerback Leon Hall has four interceptions, including one with a season-best 22-yard return.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
The luckiest, or arguably the best, team in the NFL hosts the most dysfunctional when the Jets host the Bengals with Cincinnati looking to avenge last year’s opening round playoff loss in this Thanksgiving night affair on the NFL network. While making a case for the avenging Bengals would appear to be to right thing to do, we headed right to our database for answers and dug up this tidbit!
Thanksgiving Day home favorites off a win are 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS, including 5-0 SU and ATS when they own a win percentage of .800 or greater... Favorites of more than 7 points on this day of giving thanks are 15-3 ATS, including 12-0 ATS the last twelve.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York 6.5; O/U 44
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -8.38
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 16-37 ATS (-24.4 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 17.2, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CINCINNATI is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.3, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 19.2, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.2, OPPONENT 32.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 53-30 UNDER (+19.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 17.0, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 39-21 UNDER (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 18.8, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was NY JETS 28.6, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was NY JETS 28.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 19-5 OVER (+13.5 Units) after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 20.0, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 27-12 against the 1rst half line (+13.7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.1, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-22 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.6, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.5 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NY JETS are 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 9.4, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NY JETS are 27-11 UNDER (+14.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 10.1, OPPONENT 7.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.6, OPPONENT 15.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins.
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (9-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.7
The average score in these games was: Team 18.9, Opponent 23.1 (Average point differential = -4.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (NY JETS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(41-11 since 1983.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.2, Opponent 4.8 (Average first half point differential = +11.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** TEXAS A&M (-3.5, O/U 47.5) @ TEXAS ***
-------------------------------------------------------
Fresh off a statement victory, the 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies will attempt to carry the momentum into Thursday's Big 12 Conference clash with the Texas Longhorns. In front of a raucous home crowd last weekend, the Aggies put forth a stellar defensive effort and knocked off mighty Nebraska by a 9-6 final. That win was the fifth in a row for A&M, which has obviously bounced back strong from a three-game losing streak. The club is 8-3 and will undoubtedly play in a strong non-BCS bowl, but a victory over Texas this weekend would obviously do wonders for the A&M program.
It is hard to believe that Texas, which played in the national title game last season, has more losses than wins heading into this regular-season finale. At 5-6, the Longhorns need a victory just to become bowl eligible. Last weekend, the club was happy to step outside of Big 12 play to battle an inferior Florida Atlantic squad, as a 51-17 victory halted a four-game skid. "Coaches, players, everybody - they've been so beaten down," says Texas coach Mack Brown of all the negative attention directed toward his players and coaches because of the disappointing season.
Texas A&M failed to score a single touchdown against Nebraska last weekend, and the offense managed to make good on just 2-of-13 third-down conversion attempts. Still, Cyrus Gray deserves a great deal of credit for the victory, as he ran the ball 26 times for 137 yards and caught nine passes for 65 yards. "I would say extraordinary," said Sherman when asked to describe Gray's performance "With his catches and his runs and picking the holes. If he didn't play the game he did we wouldn't have been able to kick the field goals. Nothing he ever does surprises me. I'm not shocked looking at his stats."
Gray is the first Aggie running back in 20 years to have five straight 100- yard rushing games, and he has 396 rushing yards in the three games since fellow tailback Christine Michael broke his leg. A&M didn't commit a single turnover against Nebraska, key to the win. Give plenty of credit to the swarming Texas A&M defense for holding a potent Nebraska offense to 306 total yards. The Cornhuskers are one of the best running teams in the nation, but they managed a mere 3.8 yards per carry against the Aggies. A&M came through with two big interceptions in that tilt.
Through 11 outings, the Aggies are generating 32.5 ppg and 455.0 total ypg. Ryan Tannehill, who has replaced the turnover-prone Jerrod Johnson as the club's quarterback, has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards and 10 scores with only three interceptions. Gray has run for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, while Jeff Fuller has 11 receiving scores. Fuller needs just 41 yards to reach the 1,000-yard plateau.
Defensively, A&M is limiting opponents to 20.6 ppg and 357.4 total ypg, numbers that have certainly improved significantly during the five game winning streak. The Aggies are tough against both means of attack, limiting foes to 3.3 rushing ypc and 9.6 yards per pass completion. With 20 takeaways and 25 sacks, A&M has certainly registered some impact plays. Michael Hodges leads the Aggies with 98 total tackles, while Von Fuller has 7.5 sacks to his credit.
Under Coach Brown, Texas has seemingly always featured a high-powered offensive attack, but that clearly isn't the case this season. Sure, the 24.4 ppg and 384.6 total ypg are respectable, but strong performances against weak opposition have been offset by sluggish efforts against quality teams. Brown has stuck with Garrett Gilbert, and the quarterback has struggled mightily. Gilbert has thrown only nine touchdown passes with 15 interceptions and he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes, a far cry from what Colt McCoy was able to do last season. James Kirkendoll leads the Texas receivers with 45 catches for 655 yards and two scores, while Cody Johnson paces the backfield with 485 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
Opponents are scoring 23.6 ppg against Texas, which is allowing only 294.2 total ypg. Clearly, the defense has remained strong, yielding a mere 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and limiting passing yardage as well. Texas has committed 26 turnovers this season, and those giveaways have often put the defense in vulnerable positions. While the Longhorns have only posted 16 of their own takeaways, they have notched 29 sacks and continue to battle. Keep an eye on Sam Acho, as he has registered nine sacks.
Gilbert certainly needed a good performance against Florida Atlantic to boost his confidence, and the first-year starter threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions while also running for 60 yards and a score. Kirkendoll finished with four catches for 123 yards and a touchdown, while Johnson ran for 124 yards and a score. "I thought it would give him great confidence going into Thursday," said Brown of Johnson's heavy workload. "We've needed a back around here to carry the load." Meanwhile, the Texas defense limited FAU to 298 total yards and came up with three takeaways.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
While A&M doesn’t have to deal with the Colt McCoys this season, they do have to face a Texas squad that has won and covered six of the last seven in this series in Austin. They must also do it in the rare role of favorite. The Longhorns have been favored in each of the previous 11 meetings, including a three-touchdown choice last season in College Station and as 35.5-point chalk just two years ago on this field.
This role change is even too much for the improving Aggies, who, by the way, are just 1-11 ATS in weekday road games and 1-3 ATS after battling Nebraska. The Horns have never been home for the Holidays since ol’ Mackey took over the program in 1998 and his 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark in Last Home Games at Texas suggests they won’t gift-wrap this one for the surging Aggies. "Texas’ 4-1 ATS mark as weekday dogs is reassuring but the bottom line is that the Horns need it!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Texas A&M by 2; O/U 49.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Texas A&M -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Texas A&M -1.19
______________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 36.5, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 25-47 ATS (-26.6 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 24.0, OPPONENT 27.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--TEXAS A&M is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games off a home win since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 23.6, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 42-23 OVER (+16.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 36.6, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 33.1, OPPONENT 38.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 33.1, OPPONENT 38.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 31.1, OPPONENT 39.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 32.5, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 12-28 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 16.2, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
The average score was TEXAS 9.6, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 12-33 against the 1rst half line (-24.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 11.1, OPPONENT 10.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TEXAS is 23-7 OVER (+15.3 Units) the 1rst half total vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was TEXAS 18.4, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEXAS A&M is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 16.8, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--TEXAS A&M is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS A&M 17.3, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(31-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.4
The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 20 (Total points scored = 41.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (63.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-18).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (TEXAS A&M) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games.
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.3, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 29.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-16).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (49-25).
--PLAY ON - A home team (TEXAS) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.
(29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (29-10 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2
The average score in these games was: Team 25.1, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = +5.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (27% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (43-18).
Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, 196.5)
Quick, pick a worst team for bettors to back at home then the Atlanta Hawks. Oh wait, you can’t.
Atlanta is a mediocre 3-5 SU at home this year, but a horrid 0-8 ATS this season on its own hardwood. Why is the team so bad in the south? Bad offense. The team has broken 100 points only twice at home this year and has failed to crack 94 points five different times.
"I don't know what we're doing the night before the game," Hawks coach Larry Drew said. "But something is going on that is not allowing us to play with energy or passion. I'm going to find out what it is."
In the team’s earlier meeting this season in Georgia, the Hawks failed to cover as a 9-point favorite, turning the ball over 17 times and shooting a mere 42 percent from the floor and just 26 percent from three-point land. The team managed to hold on for a 99-95 win, but it wasn’t pretty.
And the way the team is playing now, it likely won’t be much better this time around either.
Pick: Wizards
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 194.5)
It’s not very often that the lowly Clippers are a favorite. In fact, when is the last time you saw a 2-13 team laying points? As a favorite this season, the Clippers are 0-3 with losses to the Nets, Knicks and Pistons by an average of more than nine points per game.
The return of star guard Baron Davis remains up in the air as he tries to return from a swollen left knee that has left him hobbled since a game on Nov. 9 against at New Orleans.
"He hasn't gone full throttle,” Los Angeles coach Vinny Del Negro told reporters. “He’s done a lot of individual stuff. He's putting that work in, but he's not at the level right now that I think he's comfortable at."
This means the team likely will have to rely even more on rookie Eric Bledsoe. Along with the former Wildcat, fellow NBA freshman Blake Griffin, Al-Farouq Aminu and Willie Warren are suffering through the ups and downs of going from playing for college power houses to being key cogs on a professional doormat. Aminu is the top rookie three-point shooter, Bledsoe is averaging nearly 10 points per game and Blake Griffin is already one of the league’s premier forwards. But it’s that consistent effort that is the problem.
"I give those guys a lot of credit," Del Negro said. "They are working. They're trying. They're preparing. It's just that you can't speed the process. It just takes time.”
Too bad the team is fresh out of that.
Pick: Kings
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, 196.5)
Quick, pick a worst team for bettors to back at home then the Atlanta Hawks. Oh wait, you can’t.
Atlanta is a mediocre 3-5 SU at home this year, but a horrid 0-8 ATS this season on its own hardwood. Why is the team so bad in the south? Bad offense. The team has broken 100 points only twice at home this year and has failed to crack 94 points five different times.
"I don't know what we're doing the night before the game," Hawks coach Larry Drew said. "But something is going on that is not allowing us to play with energy or passion. I'm going to find out what it is."
In the team’s earlier meeting this season in Georgia, the Hawks failed to cover as a 9-point favorite, turning the ball over 17 times and shooting a mere 42 percent from the floor and just 26 percent from three-point land. The team managed to hold on for a 99-95 win, but it wasn’t pretty.
And the way the team is playing now, it likely won’t be much better this time around either.
Pick: Wizards
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 194.5)
It’s not very often that the lowly Clippers are a favorite. In fact, when is the last time you saw a 2-13 team laying points? As a favorite this season, the Clippers are 0-3 with losses to the Nets, Knicks and Pistons by an average of more than nine points per game.
The return of star guard Baron Davis remains up in the air as he tries to return from a swollen left knee that has left him hobbled since a game on Nov. 9 against at New Orleans.
"He hasn't gone full throttle,” Los Angeles coach Vinny Del Negro told reporters. “He’s done a lot of individual stuff. He's putting that work in, but he's not at the level right now that I think he's comfortable at."
This means the team likely will have to rely even more on rookie Eric Bledsoe. Along with the former Wildcat, fellow NBA freshman Blake Griffin, Al-Farouq Aminu and Willie Warren are suffering through the ups and downs of going from playing for college power houses to being key cogs on a professional doormat. Aminu is the top rookie three-point shooter, Bledsoe is averaging nearly 10 points per game and Blake Griffin is already one of the league’s premier forwards. But it’s that consistent effort that is the problem.
"I give those guys a lot of credit," Del Negro said. "They are working. They're trying. They're preparing. It's just that you can't speed the process. It just takes time.”
Too bad the team is fresh out of that.
Pick: Kings
Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers (+115, 5.5)
The Edmonton Oilers are the worst team in the Western Conference. By a lot.
Edmonton has a conference-low 14 points and is one of only two teams in the West that is under .500. The team also has the worst goal differential in the league, a horrid minus-33. Overall, the team has dropped seven of its past eight games and been outscored by a margin of 24-9 in its past five.
“We’re making it too easy on other teams, “ Oilers forward Colin Fraser. “We play a good game and think it’s going to be easy the next game and don’t battle at all. We can’t have that mentality.”
So how does the team change its mentality? Try a hard-hitting practice.
“The drills were designed for that, we had to come out and do some work on some things that were specific to our needs, but I thought that’s one thing we needed to do today,” Oilers coach Tom Renney said. “To battle, to stay engaged, so stay over-top of the job, whatever it might be. If it’s a one-on-one situation defensively or offensively, just stay over-top of the job.”
But don’t expect it to work against Colorado. The Avalanche are turning their youth into experience and depth as the team is second in the league in averaging 3.5 goals per game. The Avs might have to work harder, but should get their typical result against the Oilers.
Pick: Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers (+115, 5.5)
The Edmonton Oilers are the worst team in the Western Conference. By a lot.
Edmonton has a conference-low 14 points and is one of only two teams in the West that is under .500. The team also has the worst goal differential in the league, a horrid minus-33. Overall, the team has dropped seven of its past eight games and been outscored by a margin of 24-9 in its past five.
“We’re making it too easy on other teams, “ Oilers forward Colin Fraser. “We play a good game and think it’s going to be easy the next game and don’t battle at all. We can’t have that mentality.”
So how does the team change its mentality? Try a hard-hitting practice.
“The drills were designed for that, we had to come out and do some work on some things that were specific to our needs, but I thought that’s one thing we needed to do today,” Oilers coach Tom Renney said. “To battle, to stay engaged, so stay over-top of the job, whatever it might be. If it’s a one-on-one situation defensively or offensively, just stay over-top of the job.”
But don’t expect it to work against Colorado. The Avalanche are turning their youth into experience and depth as the team is second in the league in averaging 3.5 goals per game. The Avs might have to work harder, but should get their typical result against the Oilers.
Pick: Avalanche
Bettors' best friend: Thursday's wagering tips
Weather to watch
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: There is a 50 percent chance of showers.
Texas A&M at Texas: There is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms with an expected 16 mph crosswind.
Who’s hot
Colorado Avalanche have seen the over hit in 16 of their past 21 road games.
New England Patriots have seen the over hit in seven of their past eight games as a favorite.
New Orleans Saints are 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall.
Georgia Bulldogs men’s basketball team is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 overall.
California Golden Bears men’s basketball team is 9-2 ATS in their past 11 overall.
Who’s not
Atlanta Hawks are just 1-11 ATS in their past 12 home games.
Sacramento Kings have seen the under hit in seven of their past eight games overall.
Texas Longhorns are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Cincinnati Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against the AFC.
Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team has seen the under hit in 18 of its past 25 overall.
Key stat
6: Wins in eight games for defending Super Bowl champions on Thanksgiving Day since the NFL-AFL merger. The last defending champion to go belly up on turkey day? Dallas in its infamous loss to Miami in 1993.
Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
The Redskins backfield is again a tire fire. After opening training camp with Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker, the team has had its running backs decimated by injuries and likely will be forced to start Keiland Williams after Portis was placed on the IR to end his season on Wednesday. Williams was behind Ryan Torain on the depth chart, but Torain is expected to miss the game against the Vikings – his second straight – with a hamstring injury.
Game of the day
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 47.5)
Notable quotable
"I sat back and just thought about our football program and our coach and realized that to start throwing stones at your house, they must be jealous. We have a phenomenal football program. ... And someone now starts taking shots at TCU? That means we've arrived. Anytime. Anyplace. Anywhere," he said. "Buckeyes against the Horned Frogs. Tee it up. Let's go." – TCU Athletic Director Chris Del Conte responding to criticism from Ohio State’s president.
Notes and tips
The St. Louis Blues will finally welcome back stud defenseman Barret Jackman. The backwards skating specialist sprained his knee in a 2-0 win over the San Jose Sharks on Nov. 4 and has missed nine games since then. He was activated on Wednesday and had three assists and was plus-5 with eight penalty minutes through 10 games prior to the injury. The Blues are allowing a mere 2.6 goals per game and should be even better with Jackman returning.
Michael Beasley may be unstoppable for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the backcourt situation is much more suspect. Luke Ridnour is easing his way back into the starting lineup after being replaced by Sebastian Telfair for seven games as he battles a hamstring injury. That could actually be a mad move: Telfair had an average plus/minus of +3.0 compared to minus-6.8 for Ridnour.
Who exactly will be catching passes for the Giants when they play the upstart Jaguars this weekend? Well, standouts Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks both will likely miss the game with an injury and Derek Hagan, Duke Calhoun and the recently acquired Devin Thomas should be the ones making the catches. Don’t expect much to come easy.
Weather to watch
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: There is a 50 percent chance of showers.
Texas A&M at Texas: There is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms with an expected 16 mph crosswind.
Who’s hot
Colorado Avalanche have seen the over hit in 16 of their past 21 road games.
New England Patriots have seen the over hit in seven of their past eight games as a favorite.
New Orleans Saints are 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall.
Georgia Bulldogs men’s basketball team is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 overall.
California Golden Bears men’s basketball team is 9-2 ATS in their past 11 overall.
Who’s not
Atlanta Hawks are just 1-11 ATS in their past 12 home games.
Sacramento Kings have seen the under hit in seven of their past eight games overall.
Texas Longhorns are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Cincinnati Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against the AFC.
Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team has seen the under hit in 18 of its past 25 overall.
Key stat
6: Wins in eight games for defending Super Bowl champions on Thanksgiving Day since the NFL-AFL merger. The last defending champion to go belly up on turkey day? Dallas in its infamous loss to Miami in 1993.
Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
The Redskins backfield is again a tire fire. After opening training camp with Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker, the team has had its running backs decimated by injuries and likely will be forced to start Keiland Williams after Portis was placed on the IR to end his season on Wednesday. Williams was behind Ryan Torain on the depth chart, but Torain is expected to miss the game against the Vikings – his second straight – with a hamstring injury.
Game of the day
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 47.5)
Notable quotable
"I sat back and just thought about our football program and our coach and realized that to start throwing stones at your house, they must be jealous. We have a phenomenal football program. ... And someone now starts taking shots at TCU? That means we've arrived. Anytime. Anyplace. Anywhere," he said. "Buckeyes against the Horned Frogs. Tee it up. Let's go." – TCU Athletic Director Chris Del Conte responding to criticism from Ohio State’s president.
Notes and tips
The St. Louis Blues will finally welcome back stud defenseman Barret Jackman. The backwards skating specialist sprained his knee in a 2-0 win over the San Jose Sharks on Nov. 4 and has missed nine games since then. He was activated on Wednesday and had three assists and was plus-5 with eight penalty minutes through 10 games prior to the injury. The Blues are allowing a mere 2.6 goals per game and should be even better with Jackman returning.
Michael Beasley may be unstoppable for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the backcourt situation is much more suspect. Luke Ridnour is easing his way back into the starting lineup after being replaced by Sebastian Telfair for seven games as he battles a hamstring injury. That could actually be a mad move: Telfair had an average plus/minus of +3.0 compared to minus-6.8 for Ridnour.
Who exactly will be catching passes for the Giants when they play the upstart Jaguars this weekend? Well, standouts Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks both will likely miss the game with an injury and Derek Hagan, Duke Calhoun and the recently acquired Devin Thomas should be the ones making the catches. Don’t expect much to come easy.
GC NBA Play of the Day
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On Thursday the NBA play is on the Sacramento Kings. Game 503 at 10:35 eastern. The Clippers at 2-13 find themselves in a rare favored role tonight. However there is an excellent system that is 3-17 ats since 1995 that plays against them here tonight. What we want to do is play against home favorites with 1 or more day of rest if the posted total is 190 or higher and they were a home dog of 5 or more in their last game and are now taking on an opponent that shot 45% or less from the field as a road dog of 10 or more. These home favorites are 7-13 straight up and 3-17 ats since 1995. The Clippers are coming off a pair of hot shooting performances as they hit better than 50% in their last 2 games. Sacramento shot less than 40% in their last 2 games. The Kings have won 40 of the past 59 games in the series including the last 3. Look for them to surprise the Clippers tonight. Take the 3 points. On Thanksgiving day I have a Pair of Perfect 100% Power system in NFL action as well as the College football side that has a 100% Power angle. NCAAF is cashing 65% this year and NFL is well over .500 this year. NBA is now 21-8 after cashing with Memphis last night.. NBA 3 Unit Play tonight on the Sacramento Kings. Happy Thanks Giving. GC
.
On Thursday the NBA play is on the Sacramento Kings. Game 503 at 10:35 eastern. The Clippers at 2-13 find themselves in a rare favored role tonight. However there is an excellent system that is 3-17 ats since 1995 that plays against them here tonight. What we want to do is play against home favorites with 1 or more day of rest if the posted total is 190 or higher and they were a home dog of 5 or more in their last game and are now taking on an opponent that shot 45% or less from the field as a road dog of 10 or more. These home favorites are 7-13 straight up and 3-17 ats since 1995. The Clippers are coming off a pair of hot shooting performances as they hit better than 50% in their last 2 games. Sacramento shot less than 40% in their last 2 games. The Kings have won 40 of the past 59 games in the series including the last 3. Look for them to surprise the Clippers tonight. Take the 3 points. On Thanksgiving day I have a Pair of Perfect 100% Power system in NFL action as well as the College football side that has a 100% Power angle. NCAAF is cashing 65% this year and NFL is well over .500 this year. NBA is now 21-8 after cashing with Memphis last night.. NBA 3 Unit Play tonight on the Sacramento Kings. Happy Thanks Giving. GC
CAJUN SPORTS
4* NFL* OUTLAW ANNIHILATOR* NEW YORK JETS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -9/-104 New York Jets Play
Title: Cajuns NFL 4-Star Outlaw Annihilator 41-3-2 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals travel east to the Big Apple for a meeting against the host New York Jets on Thursday night. In last season’s finale, the Bengals rested their starters against this same Jets team and lost 37 to 0. They did so knowing they were going to host the Jets the following week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs in the Queen City. Cincinnati’s plan backfired as the Jets took that game as well 24 to 14 as a 2.5-point road underdog. Revenge can be a powerful motivating factor but you must have the team and be playing well to force your will upon another team, revenge is just a word without those key elements. Cincinnati has lost seven straight games and coming off a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills at home last week. A game in which they led 28 to 7 but eventually lost 49 to 31. Injuries to the Bengals secondary could be considered as a factor in that loss and overall but this team lacks the intensity it played with a year ago. Traveling on a short week and coming off an embarrassing loss, it is hard to believe the Bengals come through with an inspired performance this week, even against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Last year in the playoffs, the Jets held Bengals QB Carson Palmer to 146 yards passing on 50 percent completions with a 1-1 TD/INT ratio in the loss. Cincinnati’s defense has been a huge disappointment compared to last season when they had a plus 483 yards rushing differential and made a sack every sixteen-pass attempts, this year they have a minus 217 rushing yard differential and get a sack every 34-pass attempts. Last week this Bengals defense gave up thirty-five second half points in their loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets on the other hand have been solid this season after being shutout against the Packers they have won three straight although each required a rather dramatic finish a win is a win. They currently stand at 8-2 and are certainly in the hunt for a trip to the Big Show. New York has used a very strong defense especially against the run and allowing just seventeen points per game this season. Our TPR Index projects a Jets victory by 11.4 points over the Bengals on Thursday night. The Math Model projects a point differential of 3.8 points over a line range of -8.5 to -9.5 points and the PPR Index favors the host with a 29 to 13 advantage. The straight up winner in games involving Cincinnati is 11-1 against the spread just missing a perfect record of 12-0 by a single point. A check of our database reveals several powerful situations that are active for tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST NFL teams as a road underdog of seven or more points the week after a straight up loss at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. These road dogs are 6-22-1 ATS since 2000. The League is 5-22-1 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 20, 2008 as a 7-point or more underdog the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 2-11-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a road underdog of seven or more points after a loss as a favorite against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The League is 0-7 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since December 02, 1999 as a seven or more point underdog the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) October 1997 when they failed to cover by at least 21 points against a conference opponent in their last game. No revenge for the visitor as the Jets bury the towel tossing Bengals on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4* New York Jets 30 Cincinnati Bengals 15
4* NFL* OUTLAW ANNIHILATOR* NEW YORK JETS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -9/-104 New York Jets Play
Title: Cajuns NFL 4-Star Outlaw Annihilator 41-3-2 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals travel east to the Big Apple for a meeting against the host New York Jets on Thursday night. In last season’s finale, the Bengals rested their starters against this same Jets team and lost 37 to 0. They did so knowing they were going to host the Jets the following week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs in the Queen City. Cincinnati’s plan backfired as the Jets took that game as well 24 to 14 as a 2.5-point road underdog. Revenge can be a powerful motivating factor but you must have the team and be playing well to force your will upon another team, revenge is just a word without those key elements. Cincinnati has lost seven straight games and coming off a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills at home last week. A game in which they led 28 to 7 but eventually lost 49 to 31. Injuries to the Bengals secondary could be considered as a factor in that loss and overall but this team lacks the intensity it played with a year ago. Traveling on a short week and coming off an embarrassing loss, it is hard to believe the Bengals come through with an inspired performance this week, even against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Last year in the playoffs, the Jets held Bengals QB Carson Palmer to 146 yards passing on 50 percent completions with a 1-1 TD/INT ratio in the loss. Cincinnati’s defense has been a huge disappointment compared to last season when they had a plus 483 yards rushing differential and made a sack every sixteen-pass attempts, this year they have a minus 217 rushing yard differential and get a sack every 34-pass attempts. Last week this Bengals defense gave up thirty-five second half points in their loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets on the other hand have been solid this season after being shutout against the Packers they have won three straight although each required a rather dramatic finish a win is a win. They currently stand at 8-2 and are certainly in the hunt for a trip to the Big Show. New York has used a very strong defense especially against the run and allowing just seventeen points per game this season. Our TPR Index projects a Jets victory by 11.4 points over the Bengals on Thursday night. The Math Model projects a point differential of 3.8 points over a line range of -8.5 to -9.5 points and the PPR Index favors the host with a 29 to 13 advantage. The straight up winner in games involving Cincinnati is 11-1 against the spread just missing a perfect record of 12-0 by a single point. A check of our database reveals several powerful situations that are active for tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST NFL teams as a road underdog of seven or more points the week after a straight up loss at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. These road dogs are 6-22-1 ATS since 2000. The League is 5-22-1 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 20, 2008 as a 7-point or more underdog the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 2-11-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a road underdog of seven or more points after a loss as a favorite against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The League is 0-7 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since December 02, 1999 as a seven or more point underdog the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) October 1997 when they failed to cover by at least 21 points against a conference opponent in their last game. No revenge for the visitor as the Jets bury the towel tossing Bengals on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 4* New York Jets 30 Cincinnati Bengals 15
