One thing that I noticed about the Colts is that they are doing a poor job running the ball (3.4 ypc). They are also doing a poor job stopping the run (4.7 ypc).
I would imagine this has something to do with it. However, the Eagles are doing very well running the ball on offense (2nd in the NFL in ypc). They are also doing an excellent job stopping the run (1st in the NFL).
I wonder what it is that eliminates them.
Lou, do you go strictly by statistics in your analysis?
Trench
I would imagine this has something to do with it. However, the Eagles are doing very well running the ball on offense (2nd in the NFL in ypc). They are also doing an excellent job stopping the run (1st in the NFL).
I wonder what it is that eliminates them.
Lou, do you go strictly by statistics in your analysis?
Trench
RPM,
I bring up the 1980 Browns because they we're a prime example of an "exciting" team, but not a "great" one.
There is an old phrase in sports that really applies to football and that is - "If you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it". While the Colts win over the Bucs on Monday Night was exciting to watch, the fact of the matter is they were down 35-14 late in the fourth quarter, and as a rule championship teams don't allow themselves to get down by that much. You aren't going to be able to score 21 points late in the fourth quarter on Super Bowl Sunday to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. That's not how championships are won.
Big Lou
I bring up the 1980 Browns because they we're a prime example of an "exciting" team, but not a "great" one.
There is an old phrase in sports that really applies to football and that is - "If you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it". While the Colts win over the Bucs on Monday Night was exciting to watch, the fact of the matter is they were down 35-14 late in the fourth quarter, and as a rule championship teams don't allow themselves to get down by that much. You aren't going to be able to score 21 points late in the fourth quarter on Super Bowl Sunday to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. That's not how championships are won.
Big Lou
The Steelers were blown out by the Titans and they DIDN'T come back to win ... however, the Colts DID come back to win. Would it have been better if they lost that game according to your system?
A few years ago, the 49ers lost to the Eagles 40-8 and then they went on to win the Super Bowl. I believe it was the 1994 or 1995 season. How is the fact that the Colts won that game on Monday and the 49ers lost that game worse for the Colts?
Is it that bad to come from behind like that? Do you think it has mental repurcussions on a team throughout the course of the season?
Trench
A few years ago, the 49ers lost to the Eagles 40-8 and then they went on to win the Super Bowl. I believe it was the 1994 or 1995 season. How is the fact that the Colts won that game on Monday and the 49ers lost that game worse for the Colts?
Is it that bad to come from behind like that? Do you think it has mental repurcussions on a team throughout the course of the season?
Trench
How come you put the qualifier in that New England and Baltimore FINISHED the season as number 1 on your "qualifier list". Where were they at Week 5?
Tell us what criteria you are using instead of your "secret formula"
I know a really great way to make brownies and if you eat them, you will feel REALLY good, but I'm not goint to give anyone the recipe.
Tell us what criteria you are using instead of your "secret formula"
I know a really great way to make brownies and if you eat them, you will feel REALLY good, but I'm not goint to give anyone the recipe.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Lou:
RPM,
I bring up the 1980 Browns because they we're a prime example of an "exciting" team, but not a "great" one.
There is an old phrase in sports that really applies to football and that is - "If you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it". While the Colts win over the Bucs on Monday Night was exciting to watch, the fact of the matter is they were down 35-14 late in the fourth quarter, and as a rule championship teams don't allow themselves to get down by that much. You aren't going to be able to score 21 points late in the fourth quarter on Super Bowl Sunday to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. That's not how championships are won.
Big Lou<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
very good point. honestly, now that you mention that i cant think of any superbowl winners that played like that.
RPM,
I bring up the 1980 Browns because they we're a prime example of an "exciting" team, but not a "great" one.
There is an old phrase in sports that really applies to football and that is - "If you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it". While the Colts win over the Bucs on Monday Night was exciting to watch, the fact of the matter is they were down 35-14 late in the fourth quarter, and as a rule championship teams don't allow themselves to get down by that much. You aren't going to be able to score 21 points late in the fourth quarter on Super Bowl Sunday to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. That's not how championships are won.
Big Lou<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
very good point. honestly, now that you mention that i cant think of any superbowl winners that played like that.
trench,
History has shown it's better to lose a game you're supposed to lose then to come back and win it.
That 49'ers/Eagles game from 1994 is a textbook example. That 40-8 loss lit a fire under Steve Young and the rest of that team. They went on to win their next 10 games and absolutely destroyed San Diego in the Super Bowl. That loss was the turning point of their season.
A recent example of a team that had one too many come from behind victories were the 2001 Chicago Bears. Back to back overtime home wins against San Francisco & Cleveland had this team thinking there was nothing they couldn't overcome. As you well know, they got pasted 33-19 by the Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Remember, if you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it. Sometimes it's better to lose a game and bounce back from the loss then to get lucky and pull out the win. This is what I've noticed researching Super Bowl winners.
Big Lou
History has shown it's better to lose a game you're supposed to lose then to come back and win it.
That 49'ers/Eagles game from 1994 is a textbook example. That 40-8 loss lit a fire under Steve Young and the rest of that team. They went on to win their next 10 games and absolutely destroyed San Diego in the Super Bowl. That loss was the turning point of their season.
A recent example of a team that had one too many come from behind victories were the 2001 Chicago Bears. Back to back overtime home wins against San Francisco & Cleveland had this team thinking there was nothing they couldn't overcome. As you well know, they got pasted 33-19 by the Eagles in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Remember, if you live by the come from behind victory, you die by it. Sometimes it's better to lose a game and bounce back from the loss then to get lucky and pull out the win. This is what I've noticed researching Super Bowl winners.
Big Lou
2 questions:
1. What if you get to post-week 17 and there are like 10 teams still going (i.e. not on your elimination list). You mentioned that Baltimore and NE were your "number one team in 2000 & 2001 respectively". How do they get ranked? Were they simply the last teams standing at the end.
2. What if all 32 teams make your elimination list?
1. What if you get to post-week 17 and there are like 10 teams still going (i.e. not on your elimination list). You mentioned that Baltimore and NE were your "number one team in 2000 & 2001 respectively". How do they get ranked? Were they simply the last teams standing at the end.
2. What if all 32 teams make your elimination list?
Big Lou
You asked me to respond to this post. Ready for this?
I don't know Lou. You know I don't agree with your system of handicapping - ie. based on history - with some pretty funky, somewhat outlandish historical stats and facts. And it doensn't seem to be any better or consistant than anybody elses way of trying to pick winners. My belief is that your personal system seems to fit in perfectly with your personality, basically just a dry, no-nonsense approach based on historical facts. That's fine, and it's obviously something you enjoy doing. Your method works out sometimes, other times it doesn't. And with the point spread, it's no better than flipping a coin. I feel most confident in looking at stats from just the last couple of years, special teams, off season dealings etc. among other intangibles in choosing sides. This makes me most comfortable in picking a side of certain games. I'd probably do just as well in flipping a coin too. Your one claim to fame is your SB Patriot victory over the Rams. If someone were to flip a coin, they could just as easily been on the Pats. It was a good call on your part, no question, but many others called that game too. You were far from being the only one. Bottomline is that your system hasn't done any better than anyone elses in here. I believe your ability to research football history and find intresting trinkets and factual information, along with an above average knowledge of football facts that impresses people is superior than most, but not your system or your ability to pick the right side of any one game. I ejoy reading your posts, I may not agree with your reasoning behind a play, but Who cares. It's your pick and explanation, often providing intresting tidbits of information that, admittedly or not, many of us find intresting. And it may help people in choosing their side of a game. It seems that you like going for the home run, picks that nobody would consider, but come through every so often. If it comes through your a hero, the best, and you will be remembered as such for a long time. If it doesn't, oh well. At least you had the balls to post it, and explained your thoughts and reasoning behind the play. But losses like these are soon forgotten. And it looks like that's exactly what your doing here with this post. If this unfolds as you hope, you know you'll be viewed by many as a hero for a long time. Acknowledged and referred to as the best. If it doesn't, oh well. At least you had the balls to predict/call/see something others didn't. And a couple of events will obviously unfold somewhere along the line that you will be able to point out, focus on, and spin things so it doesn't look so bad. Even still look good!
You said in one of your posts not to judge you or this list until the end of the season. Why would anyone judge you based on how you see the season unfolding. It seems you want to be judged, thereby being kept in the spotlight. Wanting to be known as the guy who correctly calls unbeleivable upsets and outcomes. I can see right through you Lou. Your plans are to become a tout and sell your picks, something you've admitted to several times. What better way to get attention than by going for the homerun, calling the unbelievable, knowing it has a chance. If it comes through, your the hero, the best. You'll have suckers lined up to pay for your service.
I have a feeling that you don't actually bet your games, you don't put your money behind your picks. I may be wrong. Regardless, I wish you all the best (other than in your goal to become a tout
).
You asked me to respond to this post. Ready for this?
I don't know Lou. You know I don't agree with your system of handicapping - ie. based on history - with some pretty funky, somewhat outlandish historical stats and facts. And it doensn't seem to be any better or consistant than anybody elses way of trying to pick winners. My belief is that your personal system seems to fit in perfectly with your personality, basically just a dry, no-nonsense approach based on historical facts. That's fine, and it's obviously something you enjoy doing. Your method works out sometimes, other times it doesn't. And with the point spread, it's no better than flipping a coin. I feel most confident in looking at stats from just the last couple of years, special teams, off season dealings etc. among other intangibles in choosing sides. This makes me most comfortable in picking a side of certain games. I'd probably do just as well in flipping a coin too. Your one claim to fame is your SB Patriot victory over the Rams. If someone were to flip a coin, they could just as easily been on the Pats. It was a good call on your part, no question, but many others called that game too. You were far from being the only one. Bottomline is that your system hasn't done any better than anyone elses in here. I believe your ability to research football history and find intresting trinkets and factual information, along with an above average knowledge of football facts that impresses people is superior than most, but not your system or your ability to pick the right side of any one game. I ejoy reading your posts, I may not agree with your reasoning behind a play, but Who cares. It's your pick and explanation, often providing intresting tidbits of information that, admittedly or not, many of us find intresting. And it may help people in choosing their side of a game. It seems that you like going for the home run, picks that nobody would consider, but come through every so often. If it comes through your a hero, the best, and you will be remembered as such for a long time. If it doesn't, oh well. At least you had the balls to post it, and explained your thoughts and reasoning behind the play. But losses like these are soon forgotten. And it looks like that's exactly what your doing here with this post. If this unfolds as you hope, you know you'll be viewed by many as a hero for a long time. Acknowledged and referred to as the best. If it doesn't, oh well. At least you had the balls to predict/call/see something others didn't. And a couple of events will obviously unfold somewhere along the line that you will be able to point out, focus on, and spin things so it doesn't look so bad. Even still look good!
You said in one of your posts not to judge you or this list until the end of the season. Why would anyone judge you based on how you see the season unfolding. It seems you want to be judged, thereby being kept in the spotlight. Wanting to be known as the guy who correctly calls unbeleivable upsets and outcomes. I can see right through you Lou. Your plans are to become a tout and sell your picks, something you've admitted to several times. What better way to get attention than by going for the homerun, calling the unbelievable, knowing it has a chance. If it comes through, your the hero, the best. You'll have suckers lined up to pay for your service.
I have a feeling that you don't actually bet your games, you don't put your money behind your picks. I may be wrong. Regardless, I wish you all the best (other than in your goal to become a tout
Not to burst your bubble, but "ratther" is the word "rat" in front of the word "panther".
As far as this experiment, all I'm trying to do is be successful. Period. Betting week to week year in and year out, as I'm learning the hard way, is a losing proposition. I'm constantly trying to figure out the best way to be successful wagering on the game I love, professional football. And if that means only betting on the post-season, so be it. I'm not a degenerate who has to gamble every week for the rush of it. If I did, I wouldn't have stopped wagering and would still be posting my picks every week, drawing attention to myself as you stated. To be completely honest, I didn't think this thread would get more then a few replies.
Again, if I'm right and this thread produces the Super Bowl winner after the regular season is done, we can all profit from it. If not, everyone can flame me all they want. But I wouldn't suggest betting against me.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on October 09, 2003 at 10:32 PM.]
[This message was edited by Big Lou on October 09, 2003 at 10:34 PM.]
As far as this experiment, all I'm trying to do is be successful. Period. Betting week to week year in and year out, as I'm learning the hard way, is a losing proposition. I'm constantly trying to figure out the best way to be successful wagering on the game I love, professional football. And if that means only betting on the post-season, so be it. I'm not a degenerate who has to gamble every week for the rush of it. If I did, I wouldn't have stopped wagering and would still be posting my picks every week, drawing attention to myself as you stated. To be completely honest, I didn't think this thread would get more then a few replies.
Again, if I'm right and this thread produces the Super Bowl winner after the regular season is done, we can all profit from it. If not, everyone can flame me all they want. But I wouldn't suggest betting against me.
Big Lou
[This message was edited by Big Lou on October 09, 2003 at 10:32 PM.]
[This message was edited by Big Lou on October 09, 2003 at 10:34 PM.]
Hi Big Lou,
well done for getting everyone's attention.
A few pros & cons.
It looks to me like you're backfitting criteria that may or may not have a causative effect on whether or not a team can win the SB.
In a sport with a relatively short season followed by a series of one off matches it would be difficult to say that a team definitely carn't win the SB just because they check out on just two factors.
(BTW does your list contain only 2 factors or is it more.)
I presume it would be possible for every team in the NFL to accumulate two ticks before January.
Historical data's a good start point,but the competetivness of the NFL is definitely changing & perhaps invalidating previous relatonships.
I'd say at best you could say that team's who fail your test are unlikely to win the SB & team's that are still up & running are more likely to win the big one.
It's all about opinions & if you think Indy are dead in the water,whilst most books still have them near to the front of the market,then if your correct in the long run,that's a valuable piece of info to possess.
Agree with your intentions,but I'd baulk slightly at your methods & definitely question your absolute certainty about the outcome.
Anything's possible until it's asolutely prohibited by circumstance.
Last year's best D giving up 21 points in the last 4 mins,very unlikely,probably never happend before,but there's still a slight probability(no matter how small) that it could happen.
I'd veture that your "carn't" list should carry the same proviso.
all the best Potter.
well done for getting everyone's attention.
A few pros & cons.
It looks to me like you're backfitting criteria that may or may not have a causative effect on whether or not a team can win the SB.
In a sport with a relatively short season followed by a series of one off matches it would be difficult to say that a team definitely carn't win the SB just because they check out on just two factors.
(BTW does your list contain only 2 factors or is it more.)
I presume it would be possible for every team in the NFL to accumulate two ticks before January.
Historical data's a good start point,but the competetivness of the NFL is definitely changing & perhaps invalidating previous relatonships.
I'd say at best you could say that team's who fail your test are unlikely to win the SB & team's that are still up & running are more likely to win the big one.
It's all about opinions & if you think Indy are dead in the water,whilst most books still have them near to the front of the market,then if your correct in the long run,that's a valuable piece of info to possess.
Agree with your intentions,but I'd baulk slightly at your methods & definitely question your absolute certainty about the outcome.
Anything's possible until it's asolutely prohibited by circumstance.
Last year's best D giving up 21 points in the last 4 mins,very unlikely,probably never happend before,but there's still a slight probability(no matter how small) that it could happen.
I'd veture that your "carn't" list should carry the same proviso.
all the best Potter.
Interesting thread, first time I have stumbled across it. I give the guy credit for daring to think outside the box. I don't have any idea what it is based on, maybe something to do with coming from behind to win? Either way I will follow along and think on it some more if I get time......
Agree with him or not, Lou gets people thinking. Nothing wrong with that.
Agree with him or not, Lou gets people thinking. Nothing wrong with that.
Interesting article.
Analyze This: Comeback kings
(Oct. 9, 2003) -- With the Indianapolis Colts behind by three touchdowns with four minutes to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, just about everyone watching last week's Monday Night Football game called it a night and stopped paying attention to the game.
Not the Colts. In less than 240 seconds, Peyton Manning & Co. scored thrice (that's three times) to push the game into overtime, where they would later win the game on a Mike Vanderjagt field goal. It has gone down as the greatest comeback victory in the shortest time span in NFL history.
So that got us thinking. We have some of the most prolific football players, coaches and analysts who chime in weekly here on NFL.com. Figuring that they've witnessed (and played in) some pretty amazing come-from-behind victories, we asked them what was the best rally they've witnessed. The responses were far-ranging, including a very special reaction by a man who knows a thing or two about great comebacks.
MARV LEVY (NFL.com)
"The Colts' comeback against the Bucs was really remarkable because it was against the best defensive team in football and the defending Super Bowl champions in such a short period of time. But naturally, I was a first-hand observer (and head coach) of the Bills' come-from-behind victory over the Houston Oilers in the 1992 playoffs. We played the game without Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Cornelius Bennett -- three of our stars -- and came back from a 35-3 deficit with around 22 minutes left in the game.
"So what was I thinking during the game? We were devastated when we found ourselves down 28-3 at halftime. Here we were, AFC champions, being humiliated at home in the playoffs. There was no great pep talk like you'd see in the movies. Halftime is only 12 minutes long; I really only had three minutes to make adjustments. The only thing I recall saying to our players was, 'You are two-time defending AFC champions. When you walk off the field 30 minutes from now, don't let anybody say that you quit or gave up.' Whether it meant anything to them or not, I don't know, but on our first possession of the second half, the ball went off of one of our tight end's hands and the Oilers ran it back for a touchdown to make it 35-3. On the kickoff, the kicker flubbed it and somehow hit one of our front five players and they nearly recovered the ball. We got it though, and we scored on the next play. Then we recovered an on-side kick, scored quickly and got back in the game. In seven minutes we scored four touchdowns and had 31 points going into the fourth quarter.
"It must have been in that team to do such a feat because just one year later during the regular season we came back from a 26-0 halftime deficit against Indianapolis, considered the third-greatest comeback of all time. Coincidentally, one man who's been a vital part of both comebacks (the Bills/Oilers and last week's Colts/Bucs) is Bill Polian. He was our GM in Buffalo at the time and now he's in charge of the Colts. Bill's a good friend, a great guy, he speaks well and has great enthusiasm. And he has two amazing comebacks to look back upon.
"I do a lot of exercising, and sometimes I'm feeling serene and my mind wanders and that pleasant thought comes back to me. It was beautiful -- a remarkable event. You have to coach for 47 years to have a few moments like that occur, and it's one that I very much treasure."
GIL BRANDT (NFL.com)
"For me, the best comeback I've ever witnessed happened in December 1972, in the Cowboys' NFC Divisional Playoff game against the 49ers at Candlestick. We were down 28-13 going into fourth, and Roger Staubach, who had been hurt and not played during the season because of a training camp injury, came off the bench to play. We were down by 15 until we kicked a 45-yard field goal to make it 28-16. Then with less than two minutes to play, we scored to make it 28-23, on-side kicked and scored again with 52 seconds remaining to give us the lead. And then we almost lost! The 49ers, with John Brodie, came back and completed a pass that would put them in field goal position, but offensive tackle Cas Banaszek was called for holding and it took them out of field-goal range. The final was 30-28 and it put us in championship game."
PAT KIRWAN (NFL.com)
"I was at the Indianapolis-Tampa Bay game in Week 5 and there's no doubt it was one of the greatest comebacks of all time. But, the greatest comeback I ever watched was the greatest comeback in NFL history -- the Bills and the Oilers in the 1992 AFC Wild Card Game. The Bills had to go with Frank Reich, their second-string QB, and he led them from being down 35-3 to an overtime win! Reich later played for me at the Jets and we would discuss that game often. He was humble and underplayed the importance of the game, which impressed me even more.
"Interesting side note: The Oilers defensive coordinator was the national TV halftime feature, and he was fired at the end of the game! What a way for the Bills to keep their incredible Super Bowl string alive."
CRIS COLLINSWORTH (FOX)
"I missed watching the Colts' comeback last week. I know a lot of people will say the Houston and Buffalo game was a great one, but I missed that one, too. I think I was watching a Louisville and Kentucky basketball game and didn't even bother to check back on the score. It's like that old saying, 'If a tree falls in the forest, and I'm not there, I don't hear it.' But my greatest comeback occurred during the first game that I ever played in. Seattle jumped to a 21-0 first-quarter lead. Our starting quarterback Kenny Anderson was booed off the field. Our backup, Jack Thompson, was injured so they turned to my good friend, Turk Schonert. He rallied us for a 27-21 victory that I believe helped propel us to the Super Bowl. If we get blown out by Seattle at home, I think the season would have been over right there."
TROY AIKMAN (FOX)
"The best one I've witnessed was Buffalo's comeback win over the Oilers. As far as the greatest comeback I was a part of, we [the Dallas Cowboys] opened the 1999 season against the Redskins. We were down 21 points with about 11 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. We were able to come back, force overtime and win it."
ART SHELL (NFL.com)
"The greatest comeback I've ever seen was the one the other night. It was a very exciting game. You thought the Colts were out of it, and they got on a roll and couldn't be stopped. The best comeback I've ever been involved in was the 1976 season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders lost to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game the season before, and we were down by two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter of this game. We scored 17 points in the last five minutes to win the game, 31-28. That game really set the tone for us, and we went on to win the Super Bowl."
VIC CARUCCI (NFL.com)
"I've had the good fortune to be on hand for three of the greatest comebacks in NFL history: The Jan. 3, 1993 Wild Card Game in which the Bills stormed back from a 32-point deficit early in the third quarter to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime; the Oct. 23, 2000 Monday night game in which the Jets came back from a 23-point deficit late in the third quarter to beat the Dolphins 40-37 in OT; and the Colts-Bucs game from Week 5. All were incredible to witness, but the Bills-Oilers game stands alone as the best because it carried the highest stakes. The losing team in the other two still would have plenty of time to recover. I'll never forget sitting in the Bills press box with other writers, taking turns on the phones at halftime (with the Oilers leading by 25 points) to make travel arrangements to cover Houston in the next round. I worked for the Buffalo News at the time and I huddled with my boss to discuss plans for end-of-the-season, clean-out-the-lockers coverage. Two other factors made that comeback so special: It was led by Frank Reich, the mild-mannered backup who started at quarterback in place of injured superstar Jim Kelly, and the game was blacked out on local television, meaning you couldn't see it in Western New York unless you had a ticket. It's amazing how large that non-sellout crowd has grown through the years."
BOOMER ESIASON (CBS)
"The biggest comeback I've ever seen was the Bills versus the Oilers in the 1992 playoffs. My former college roommate, Frank Reich, led a furious 32-point second half comeback. The most memorable comeback I was involved with was in 1996 against the Washington Redskins. The Cincinnati Bengals won 37-34 [Esiason completed 35 of 59 for 529 yards]. Also in 1996, the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Philadelphia Eagles 36-30 after losing a 9-point lead with less than two minutes in the game. Cincinnati scored a touchdown with less than 20 seconds on the clock to win the game."
Notice that none of the teams that rallied from a 21 point deficit or more went on to win the Super Bowl?
Big Lou
Analyze This: Comeback kings
(Oct. 9, 2003) -- With the Indianapolis Colts behind by three touchdowns with four minutes to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, just about everyone watching last week's Monday Night Football game called it a night and stopped paying attention to the game.
Not the Colts. In less than 240 seconds, Peyton Manning & Co. scored thrice (that's three times) to push the game into overtime, where they would later win the game on a Mike Vanderjagt field goal. It has gone down as the greatest comeback victory in the shortest time span in NFL history.
So that got us thinking. We have some of the most prolific football players, coaches and analysts who chime in weekly here on NFL.com. Figuring that they've witnessed (and played in) some pretty amazing come-from-behind victories, we asked them what was the best rally they've witnessed. The responses were far-ranging, including a very special reaction by a man who knows a thing or two about great comebacks.
MARV LEVY (NFL.com)
"The Colts' comeback against the Bucs was really remarkable because it was against the best defensive team in football and the defending Super Bowl champions in such a short period of time. But naturally, I was a first-hand observer (and head coach) of the Bills' come-from-behind victory over the Houston Oilers in the 1992 playoffs. We played the game without Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Cornelius Bennett -- three of our stars -- and came back from a 35-3 deficit with around 22 minutes left in the game.
"So what was I thinking during the game? We were devastated when we found ourselves down 28-3 at halftime. Here we were, AFC champions, being humiliated at home in the playoffs. There was no great pep talk like you'd see in the movies. Halftime is only 12 minutes long; I really only had three minutes to make adjustments. The only thing I recall saying to our players was, 'You are two-time defending AFC champions. When you walk off the field 30 minutes from now, don't let anybody say that you quit or gave up.' Whether it meant anything to them or not, I don't know, but on our first possession of the second half, the ball went off of one of our tight end's hands and the Oilers ran it back for a touchdown to make it 35-3. On the kickoff, the kicker flubbed it and somehow hit one of our front five players and they nearly recovered the ball. We got it though, and we scored on the next play. Then we recovered an on-side kick, scored quickly and got back in the game. In seven minutes we scored four touchdowns and had 31 points going into the fourth quarter.
"It must have been in that team to do such a feat because just one year later during the regular season we came back from a 26-0 halftime deficit against Indianapolis, considered the third-greatest comeback of all time. Coincidentally, one man who's been a vital part of both comebacks (the Bills/Oilers and last week's Colts/Bucs) is Bill Polian. He was our GM in Buffalo at the time and now he's in charge of the Colts. Bill's a good friend, a great guy, he speaks well and has great enthusiasm. And he has two amazing comebacks to look back upon.
"I do a lot of exercising, and sometimes I'm feeling serene and my mind wanders and that pleasant thought comes back to me. It was beautiful -- a remarkable event. You have to coach for 47 years to have a few moments like that occur, and it's one that I very much treasure."
GIL BRANDT (NFL.com)
"For me, the best comeback I've ever witnessed happened in December 1972, in the Cowboys' NFC Divisional Playoff game against the 49ers at Candlestick. We were down 28-13 going into fourth, and Roger Staubach, who had been hurt and not played during the season because of a training camp injury, came off the bench to play. We were down by 15 until we kicked a 45-yard field goal to make it 28-16. Then with less than two minutes to play, we scored to make it 28-23, on-side kicked and scored again with 52 seconds remaining to give us the lead. And then we almost lost! The 49ers, with John Brodie, came back and completed a pass that would put them in field goal position, but offensive tackle Cas Banaszek was called for holding and it took them out of field-goal range. The final was 30-28 and it put us in championship game."
PAT KIRWAN (NFL.com)
"I was at the Indianapolis-Tampa Bay game in Week 5 and there's no doubt it was one of the greatest comebacks of all time. But, the greatest comeback I ever watched was the greatest comeback in NFL history -- the Bills and the Oilers in the 1992 AFC Wild Card Game. The Bills had to go with Frank Reich, their second-string QB, and he led them from being down 35-3 to an overtime win! Reich later played for me at the Jets and we would discuss that game often. He was humble and underplayed the importance of the game, which impressed me even more.
"Interesting side note: The Oilers defensive coordinator was the national TV halftime feature, and he was fired at the end of the game! What a way for the Bills to keep their incredible Super Bowl string alive."
CRIS COLLINSWORTH (FOX)
"I missed watching the Colts' comeback last week. I know a lot of people will say the Houston and Buffalo game was a great one, but I missed that one, too. I think I was watching a Louisville and Kentucky basketball game and didn't even bother to check back on the score. It's like that old saying, 'If a tree falls in the forest, and I'm not there, I don't hear it.' But my greatest comeback occurred during the first game that I ever played in. Seattle jumped to a 21-0 first-quarter lead. Our starting quarterback Kenny Anderson was booed off the field. Our backup, Jack Thompson, was injured so they turned to my good friend, Turk Schonert. He rallied us for a 27-21 victory that I believe helped propel us to the Super Bowl. If we get blown out by Seattle at home, I think the season would have been over right there."
TROY AIKMAN (FOX)
"The best one I've witnessed was Buffalo's comeback win over the Oilers. As far as the greatest comeback I was a part of, we [the Dallas Cowboys] opened the 1999 season against the Redskins. We were down 21 points with about 11 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. We were able to come back, force overtime and win it."
ART SHELL (NFL.com)
"The greatest comeback I've ever seen was the one the other night. It was a very exciting game. You thought the Colts were out of it, and they got on a roll and couldn't be stopped. The best comeback I've ever been involved in was the 1976 season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders lost to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game the season before, and we were down by two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter of this game. We scored 17 points in the last five minutes to win the game, 31-28. That game really set the tone for us, and we went on to win the Super Bowl."
VIC CARUCCI (NFL.com)
"I've had the good fortune to be on hand for three of the greatest comebacks in NFL history: The Jan. 3, 1993 Wild Card Game in which the Bills stormed back from a 32-point deficit early in the third quarter to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime; the Oct. 23, 2000 Monday night game in which the Jets came back from a 23-point deficit late in the third quarter to beat the Dolphins 40-37 in OT; and the Colts-Bucs game from Week 5. All were incredible to witness, but the Bills-Oilers game stands alone as the best because it carried the highest stakes. The losing team in the other two still would have plenty of time to recover. I'll never forget sitting in the Bills press box with other writers, taking turns on the phones at halftime (with the Oilers leading by 25 points) to make travel arrangements to cover Houston in the next round. I worked for the Buffalo News at the time and I huddled with my boss to discuss plans for end-of-the-season, clean-out-the-lockers coverage. Two other factors made that comeback so special: It was led by Frank Reich, the mild-mannered backup who started at quarterback in place of injured superstar Jim Kelly, and the game was blacked out on local television, meaning you couldn't see it in Western New York unless you had a ticket. It's amazing how large that non-sellout crowd has grown through the years."
BOOMER ESIASON (CBS)
"The biggest comeback I've ever seen was the Bills versus the Oilers in the 1992 playoffs. My former college roommate, Frank Reich, led a furious 32-point second half comeback. The most memorable comeback I was involved with was in 1996 against the Washington Redskins. The Cincinnati Bengals won 37-34 [Esiason completed 35 of 59 for 529 yards]. Also in 1996, the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Philadelphia Eagles 36-30 after losing a 9-point lead with less than two minutes in the game. Cincinnati scored a touchdown with less than 20 seconds on the clock to win the game."
Notice that none of the teams that rallied from a 21 point deficit or more went on to win the Super Bowl?
Big Lou
