Super Bowl XXXVIII - Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots

[Fezzik]

Quick Caveat: If you can get EITHER TEAM TO WIN -7, go right ahead and lay it!

I'm getting a kick out of posters reminding me of SB history. Wow! Thanks. I've been on on Mars the last 30 years, and missed this!

Seriously, SB favorites are 2-4-2 ATS the last 8. SB dominant favorites are monsters (for good reasons) but once you look only at games lined at 7 or less (games projected to be contests) the favorite dominance falls off. I think it is still something like 11-9, but that is only due to the distant past.

It's a classic example of the public still overreacting to the "SB blowout theory" that has moved the line from -6.5 to -7. I seriously doubt there are ANY pro bettor out there that support themselves gambling that are going to make anything but a token wager at -7. Basic Strategy says "When an NFL game moves up, any value on the Favorite is long gone. When it is a high profile game, time to start loading the muskets to fire on the other side".

 

[PatPatriot]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> It's a classic example of the public still overreacting to the "SB blowout theory" that has moved the line from -6.5 to -7. I seriously doubt there are ANY pro bettor out there that support themselves gambling that are going to make anything but a token wager at -7. Basic Strategy says "When an NFL game <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Fezz from what I can tell the betting has been about even although I agree with your theory...If the line stays at 6.5-7 that means the betting stays even my guess is the line is correct, which devalues the +pts. ...I am not saying that there is no value...I am just sayin the value isn't as great as one would think for the Cats...Good value at +7 would be a 60/40 chance of them covering...from what I have gathered from the betting so far it is split with the line at +7 (with little movment) making it 50/50 for either team to cover.

 

[Bobby_Trendy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Patriot:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> It's a classic example of the public still overreacting to the "SB blowout theory" that has moved the line from -6.5 to -7. I seriously doubt there are ANY pro bettor out there that support themselves gambling that are going to make anything but a token wager at -7. Basic Strategy says "When an NFL game <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Fezz from what I can tell the betting has been about even although I agree with your theory...If the line stays at 6.5-7 that means the betting stays even my guess is the line is correct, which devalues the +pts. ...I am not saying that there is no value...I am just sayin the value isn't as great as one would think for the Cats...Good value at +7 would be a 60/40 chance of them covering...from what I have gathered from the betting so far it is split with the line at +7 (with little movment) making it 50/50 for either team to cover.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Huh?

A. How can you tell the betting is "even"?

B. How can you tell who is betting which side? Are sharps and squares evenly split? Or are sharps on one side and squares on the other? Big difference.

 

[PatPatriot]

Check out the consensus boards....if you can't figure out whos who then I can't help ya.

 

[Bobby_Trendy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Patriot:
Check out the consensus boards....if you can't figure out whos who then I can't help ya.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Actually, my questions were designed to help *you*. The consensus boards don't tell you how much $$$ is being bet per side, and more importantly, it doesn't tell you if the $$ is sharp or square. Judging from your post, though, I *do* know which one your $$$'s are.

 

[PatPatriot]

Oh, OK, thanks for the help....You can count the favs I have bet on in the last year on one hand...I'll be looking rather sharp for a square come Sun at about 9:30 pm.

 

[RobFunk]

youre probably right patriot, but it'll be more like 1030-1045

 

[SharksIV]

can somebody talk me out of the under. i'm starting to waffle

 

[PatPatriot]

Bobby trend,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director for Imperial Palace in Las Vegas, said action has been split this week between the Panthers and the Patriots, which has kept the line steady.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This was taken out of today Boston herald..there is no value in the line like I said.

 

[Bobby_Trendy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Patriot:
Bobby trend,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director for Imperial Palace in Las Vegas, said action has been split this week between the Panthers and the Patriots, which has kept the line steady.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This was taken out of today Boston herald..there is no value in the line like I said.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Dude-- this doesn't tell you where the sharp action is. If the sharp-action is lopsided, then there is value in the line... like I said.

 

[Oren1]

I was starting to lean towards the Panthers but now I see they're on the cover of Sports Illustrated!

Going to stick with the under and a prop.

 

[skullfaulker]

If you think the Pats are going to blow out the Panthers...Your crack addiction is worse than your gambling addiction. Are they going to blow them out with field goals? I really doubt that. They couldn't score touchdowns against a pathetic colts D. A defense that gave up 28 points in one quarter several weeks earlier to Denver. Equal matchup on defense. Carolina has a much better recieving core and running back duo. I will take a small chance on Panthers ML, and win big on the under. Done!

 

[RickyK]

So, who does Big Lou have? Tennessee plus the points?

 

[TheGeneral+]

Results (137 votes counted so far):
Carolina Panthers +6.5 68/50%

New England Patriots -6.5 69/50%

 

[captain#5]

Hey Patriot, now that the game was easy taking the points and I mean easy (the 1st quarter told you 0-0, the Cats are alive today), and the Pilgrims are a dynasty from here on out are you going to bang the Pigrims for next year at +6-1 for the super bowl?

One of the best super bowls of all time.ESPN instant classic.