Wow, I didn't know New England's pass D was only 15th. Their run D must be their strength, wonder if the Panthers decide to air it out more than they have in their other playoff games. The thing about the Pats pass D is, a team might get a lot of completions and yards against them, but, they are very diciplined and get to the ball quick and tackle those recievers before they gain many more yards.
Patriot, you are a homer in the worst way.
16-2. 16-2. You sound like a parrot.
How about 8-9-1. 8-9-1. THAT is NE's record this year vs. a 7 point line.
So if they only cover 1/2 of the time vs. this line, I'd be real curious how you are going to cover this week given:
1. Their monster HFA is negated.
2. They play much better at home.
3. Carolina is much better than the average team they played this year.
4. They have gotten a monster plus turnover difference this year......EVEN with this, they aren't covering 6.5-7.
NE struggles to cover -7 this year. The Panthers cover all their road games getting 7. ALL of them.
10-0. 10-0. Mr. Parrot.
16-2. 16-2. You sound like a parrot.
How about 8-9-1. 8-9-1. THAT is NE's record this year vs. a 7 point line.
So if they only cover 1/2 of the time vs. this line, I'd be real curious how you are going to cover this week given:
1. Their monster HFA is negated.
2. They play much better at home.
3. Carolina is much better than the average team they played this year.
4. They have gotten a monster plus turnover difference this year......EVEN with this, they aren't covering 6.5-7.
NE struggles to cover -7 this year. The Panthers cover all their road games getting 7. ALL of them.
10-0. 10-0. Mr. Parrot.
lol I hate to say it but Fezzik, you've got a good point. I'd counter with, most teams that win the Superbowl cover the spread as well, just look at how last years game got way ahead of da Raidahs, but, the last few games before that were more competetive due to so-called parity. Actually the Ravens crushed the Giants 3 years ago. The winning team actually covered or tied a 7 point spread 11 out of the past 12 years. The one team that didn't cover was the Pats.
This year's team is better, though. I'd also say this game has a decent chance of looking more like the Rams/Tennessee game or the Rams/Pats game.
http://pytho.nss.net/nfl/(y2cufv452xf41eizhpglev55)/teamlog.aspx?team=19
I haven't seen the Pats -7 at all this year!
I haven't seen the Pats -7 at all this year!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
Patriot, you are a homer in the worst way.
16-2. 16-2. You sound like a parrot.
How about 8-9-1. 8-9-1. THAT is NE's record this year vs. a 7 point line.
So if they only cover 1/2 of the time vs. this line, I'd be real curious how you are going to cover this week given:
1. Their monster HFA is negated.
2. They play much better at home.
3. Carolina is much better than the average team they played this year.
4. They have gotten a monster plus turnover difference this year......EVEN with this, they aren't covering 6.5-7.
NE struggles to cover -7 this year. The Panthers cover all their road games getting 7. ALL of them.
10-0. 10-0. Mr. Parrot.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This is the super bowl. You should do some research on past superbowls to see what the average margin of victory is for these games. Fact is they tend to be blow outs. In fact 11 of the last 12 have been decided by 7 points or more.
So to take regular season statistics regarding covering and applying it to a superbowl is a bit foolish. Using your system, how many times did Oakland lose by 27 last year in the regular season?
Patriot, you are a homer in the worst way.
16-2. 16-2. You sound like a parrot.
How about 8-9-1. 8-9-1. THAT is NE's record this year vs. a 7 point line.
So if they only cover 1/2 of the time vs. this line, I'd be real curious how you are going to cover this week given:
1. Their monster HFA is negated.
2. They play much better at home.
3. Carolina is much better than the average team they played this year.
4. They have gotten a monster plus turnover difference this year......EVEN with this, they aren't covering 6.5-7.
NE struggles to cover -7 this year. The Panthers cover all their road games getting 7. ALL of them.
10-0. 10-0. Mr. Parrot.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This is the super bowl. You should do some research on past superbowls to see what the average margin of victory is for these games. Fact is they tend to be blow outs. In fact 11 of the last 12 have been decided by 7 points or more.
So to take regular season statistics regarding covering and applying it to a superbowl is a bit foolish. Using your system, how many times did Oakland lose by 27 last year in the regular season?
I wonder how many of you guys actually had Oakland last year? I wonder how many had the Rams the year before?
If you did i am sure you have the Cats this year.
Two upsets in the SB a row...So that means Cats will do it too because it is a wicked easy line, right?..-7 Patriots can't cover a line like that they don't have Jesus Christ on their team....and Dan Marino don't like em cause he never won a super bowl.
Stop buying picks will ya!!....jesus I giving you the Pats for nothing.
If you did i am sure you have the Cats this year.
Two upsets in the SB a row...So that means Cats will do it too because it is a wicked easy line, right?..-7 Patriots can't cover a line like that they don't have Jesus Christ on their team....and Dan Marino don't like em cause he never won a super bowl.
Stop buying picks will ya!!....jesus I giving you the Pats for nothing.
Watch this cycle play out. Media hypes New England for two weeks. Public buys into it maybe the pats do to. All the while Carolina goes about their business getting perpared maybe even pissed because of the lack of respect. Pressure starts to mount on New England(all the hype).
Carolina keeps the game close gaining confidence every step of the way. If New England can't get some sepertation by halftime the pressure could be more than they can handle. Don't think this can play out. Go back two years, these same pats were in this same situation.
Carolina keeps the game close gaining confidence every step of the way. If New England can't get some sepertation by halftime the pressure could be more than they can handle. Don't think this can play out. Go back two years, these same pats were in this same situation.
I haven't heard either team hyped more than the other the past week or so. Then again I have been watching the NFL Network and not that joke of a station ESPN. The fact is that this game is not a great one to bet on. Cases can be made for poth teams. Weekendalki is right, this could land right on the number.
I think it will come down to turnovers. According to NFL.com (http://nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TURNOVERS/2003/regular?sort_col_1=9&_3:col_1=6)
Carolina is -5 and New England is +17 in TO ratio.
That said I still like New England to win by 10-17.
GL to all,
KMAN
I think it will come down to turnovers. According to NFL.com (http://nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TURNOVERS/2003/regular?sort_col_1=9&_3:col_1=6)
Carolina is -5 and New England is +17 in TO ratio.
That said I still like New England to win by 10-17.
GL to all,
KMAN
I find it amusing that fessik calls patriot " a homer in the worst way "on him giving stats on why New England wins. He then proceeds to give a slew of hand picked stats to support his theory
As usual, there is enough stats out there to support any eventuality and following them becomes, a wood for the trees, situation.
It is more important that people spend more time getting a handle on a teams philosophy and game strategy and how that matches up with their opponents.
As usual, there is enough stats out there to support any eventuality and following them becomes, a wood for the trees, situation.
It is more important that people spend more time getting a handle on a teams philosophy and game strategy and how that matches up with their opponents.
WC...great theory, the problem is the 2 entirley different teams in the SB...The lambs were based on finesse the Pats aren't..Pats beat the snot out of them just like they did to Indy,,,Pats aren't he greatest show on turf they are the greatest show on dirt.
This my honest opinion without being a homer.
Muscle for Muscle they are even.Pats beat the Rams with 1 weeks rest...I think the rest will do more harm to the red hot Cats then help them...I believe the Pats are more equiped to comeback on them then the Cats are on them...and if the Pats get out early like up 10 points or more the game might fall into the blowout SB trends....All i have been hearing about is the Cats D..but what was Tenn. D Miami D Dallas D Buff. D and Denver D? chicken liver? they beat them SU and ATS....The Pats want Jake to beat them.Watch for the Pats to go no huddle early.
Don't forget the Cats have more passing plays that went for more than 20 yards than the colts this year.Pats will double team Muhhamed and Ty will cover smith.
This my honest opinion without being a homer.
Muscle for Muscle they are even.Pats beat the Rams with 1 weeks rest...I think the rest will do more harm to the red hot Cats then help them...I believe the Pats are more equiped to comeback on them then the Cats are on them...and if the Pats get out early like up 10 points or more the game might fall into the blowout SB trends....All i have been hearing about is the Cats D..but what was Tenn. D Miami D Dallas D Buff. D and Denver D? chicken liver? they beat them SU and ATS....The Pats want Jake to beat them.Watch for the Pats to go no huddle early.
Don't forget the Cats have more passing plays that went for more than 20 yards than the colts this year.Pats will double team Muhhamed and Ty will cover smith.
Patriot,
Maybe you can answer a couple of questions I have.
1) Any idea why Faulk got more carries than Smith in the Houston game. Was it just a match-up thing or was it because of the turf, I know Smith was de-activated against Indy for that reason. which do you think will get the most carries?.
2) how does The patriots Defence do on screen passes and passes to the backs. Just thinking Carolina might emphasise it as they dont seem to use their TEs alot.
Maybe you can answer a couple of questions I have.
1) Any idea why Faulk got more carries than Smith in the Houston game. Was it just a match-up thing or was it because of the turf, I know Smith was de-activated against Indy for that reason. which do you think will get the most carries?.
2) how does The patriots Defence do on screen passes and passes to the backs. Just thinking Carolina might emphasise it as they dont seem to use their TEs alot.
many good points made by everyone. i do love new england to win the game and i'm aware of the superbowl stats for blowouts but i agree with fezzik that there is no value in laying 7 points on a pats team that seems to always win but never blow anybody out. laying -260 on the money line is too much exposure against a carolina team that could be a break or a key turnover away from winning. i'm still leaning towards teasing the side and total while looking for value prop bets based on my perception of belichik's game plan which i often can get a handle on by reading between the lines in the press and the fact that ive seen every patriots game since he took over as coach.
Sharks I agree with your post word for word...really there isn't any value in laying -7...I just think thsoe wierd SB, two week off, trends come into play... because of the Pats experience in SB's. this is the 3rd SB as Patriots for Ted Johnson, Wille Mcginest Ty law,Troy Brown and Adam Vineteri..they know how to prepare to win and they know what not to do to lose..this is the first for 13 year Ted Washington...and Rodney hariison who are hungry...I think this is too much of a cool off period for the Cats and they lost earlier this year coming off a bye.
Peter King from SI was saying that he thought the Cats were here a year to early.
Indy and Tenn. would have made mince meat out of any of the Cats playoff opponents.
I believe Pats want to make a statement.
Peter King from SI was saying that he thought the Cats were here a year to early.
Indy and Tenn. would have made mince meat out of any of the Cats playoff opponents.
I believe Pats want to make a statement.
winbet.. the pats are very disciplned on D.So the screens don't bother me.
As far as the Pats look for them with the screens and draws to what i think will be an overley aggresive Cats D.
Good point on Faulk they like to use him because he is shifty,and runs screens terrifcly, in a controled enviroment..A.Smith is their December back.
As far as the Pats look for them with the screens and draws to what i think will be an overley aggresive Cats D.
Good point on Faulk they like to use him because he is shifty,and runs screens terrifcly, in a controled enviroment..A.Smith is their December back.
