Mr. Vegas
Free Sunday NFL Play from Mr. Vegas: NY Giants at Seattle.
A tough situational spot for the fading Giants, getting blown out at home on national TV and now heading 3,000 miles to a team with the best home field edge in football. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games, plus 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games in November. The Seahawks are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games.
Play Seattle!
Free Sunday NFL Play from Mr. Vegas: NY Giants at Seattle.
A tough situational spot for the fading Giants, getting blown out at home on national TV and now heading 3,000 miles to a team with the best home field edge in football. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games, plus 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games in November. The Seahawks are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games.
Play Seattle!
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday 6:05 PM NBA
(503) UTAH JAZZ at (504) DETROIT PISTONS
Take: (503) UTAH JAZZ +4
The Jazz aren’t likely to be playing come playoff time. They’re a team with some clear limitations and they’re also stuck in the always rugged Western Conference. Utah will probably still be a pain in the neck, especially vs. tired teams, when playing in Salt Lake City, On the road, prospects for lots of wins are pretty much nil.
But I can see Utah grabbing a win in the visitor’s role here. The Pistons look like they could be improved to some extent, but there’s still one big issue that’s going to prove to be a major obstacle. They can’t shoot the basketball.
Detroit is currently slogging along offensively with a 41.2% FG rate. It’s not easy to win, let alone cover as a favorite, when clanking the ball that frequently. Making matters worse is the free throw shooting. 64.5% from the stripe for an NBA team is a disgrace. There’s not other way to put it. It’s also not much of a fluke if you’ve seen this team shooting its free throws. The worst offender is Josh Smith. Sorry if this sounds harsh, but he honestly looks to me like he doesn’t consider this to be an important aspect of the game. If I’m wrong, so be it. The results say I’m not.
The Pistons are currently dead last in the NBA in the true shooting advanced metric. If that changes, it’ll be good news for Detroit fans and the team won’t be potential fade material. But right now, the figures are downright ugly and that makes this team a major risk when giving points. The Jazz can usually be counted on to not get outworked by anyone, and I can see them giving the Pistons a run for they money here. I’ll opt for Utah plus the points this time.
Bonus Play Sunday 6:05 PM NBA
(503) UTAH JAZZ at (504) DETROIT PISTONS
Take: (503) UTAH JAZZ +4
The Jazz aren’t likely to be playing come playoff time. They’re a team with some clear limitations and they’re also stuck in the always rugged Western Conference. Utah will probably still be a pain in the neck, especially vs. tired teams, when playing in Salt Lake City, On the road, prospects for lots of wins are pretty much nil.
But I can see Utah grabbing a win in the visitor’s role here. The Pistons look like they could be improved to some extent, but there’s still one big issue that’s going to prove to be a major obstacle. They can’t shoot the basketball.
Detroit is currently slogging along offensively with a 41.2% FG rate. It’s not easy to win, let alone cover as a favorite, when clanking the ball that frequently. Making matters worse is the free throw shooting. 64.5% from the stripe for an NBA team is a disgrace. There’s not other way to put it. It’s also not much of a fluke if you’ve seen this team shooting its free throws. The worst offender is Josh Smith. Sorry if this sounds harsh, but he honestly looks to me like he doesn’t consider this to be an important aspect of the game. If I’m wrong, so be it. The results say I’m not.
The Pistons are currently dead last in the NBA in the true shooting advanced metric. If that changes, it’ll be good news for Detroit fans and the team won’t be potential fade material. But right now, the figures are downright ugly and that makes this team a major risk when giving points. The Jazz can usually be counted on to not get outworked by anyone, and I can see them giving the Pistons a run for they money here. I’ll opt for Utah plus the points this time.
Jim Feist
Comp NFL Pick for Sunday, November 9, 2014: 1:00 PM ET
(255) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS (256) BUFFALO BILLS
Take: (256) BUFFALO BILLS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 8, 2014 is in the NFL contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Kansas City has been a very good covering team, going 7-1 ATS this season. They have benefited the last few weeks from playing the Jets and Rams. The defense has been one of the best this season, ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed, first against the pass and 5th overall in total yards. The offense has been decent behind Jamal Charles rushing which has the club 6th in running in the league. The Buffalo defense has also been very good, ranked 6th in points allowed and 8th against the rush. This should make for a good matchup today as they face Charles. Only one team has scored more than 23 points against the BIlls this season and that was New England. These teams have met every season since 2008 and the Bills have covered all of those, going 5-1 ATS. While the weather shouldn't include any snow on Sunday, it still should be fairly cold for this Kansas City team going up north. Chiefs haven't done too well in Buffalo, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips and with both clubs sitting at 5-3 this one looks pretty tight. I'm going to take the home club here as Buffalo needs only to win in this spot with the line at pick'em. Your Bonus Play is on Buffalo.
Comp NFL Pick for Sunday, November 9, 2014: 1:00 PM ET
(255) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS (256) BUFFALO BILLS
Take: (256) BUFFALO BILLS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 8, 2014 is in the NFL contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Kansas City has been a very good covering team, going 7-1 ATS this season. They have benefited the last few weeks from playing the Jets and Rams. The defense has been one of the best this season, ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed, first against the pass and 5th overall in total yards. The offense has been decent behind Jamal Charles rushing which has the club 6th in running in the league. The Buffalo defense has also been very good, ranked 6th in points allowed and 8th against the rush. This should make for a good matchup today as they face Charles. Only one team has scored more than 23 points against the BIlls this season and that was New England. These teams have met every season since 2008 and the Bills have covered all of those, going 5-1 ATS. While the weather shouldn't include any snow on Sunday, it still should be fairly cold for this Kansas City team going up north. Chiefs haven't done too well in Buffalo, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips and with both clubs sitting at 5-3 this one looks pretty tight. I'm going to take the home club here as Buffalo needs only to win in this spot with the line at pick'em. Your Bonus Play is on Buffalo.
Jack Jones
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New Orleans Saints -5.5
This number has been moving for good reason. The Saints opened as just 2.5-point favorites over the 49ers, and this line has been bet all the way up to -5.5. Rarely do you see lines move this much in the NFL, and often times there is value in backing the other team, but I don’t believe that to be the case this week. The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL despite their 4-4 record, and that will show again this week.
I backed the Saints hard in their last two games in a 44-23 home win over Green Bay, and a 28-10 road win at Carolina. They were undervalued due to their 2-4 start to the season that easily could have been 5-1. They lost three road games by a combined six points, and many people wrote them off. They could be 7-1 right now had those three games gone the other way.
The numbers show that the Saints are one of the top teams in the NFL. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 66.0 yards per game on the season. They only trail the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos in this department. They are doing it behind an offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL at 436.5 yards per game.
New Orleans ranked 4th in the league in total defense last year, but struggled through the first half of the season on this side of the ball. It has shown signs of life in recent weeks, especially against Carolina last week. It allowed just 10 points and 231 total yards to the Panthers while forcing two turnovers. Now, it has had three extra days of rest to get ready for the 49ers since that game occurred last Thursday.
With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-0 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.
San Francisco is a complete mess right now. After losing to Denver 17-42 on the road, it returned from its bye last week and was expected to blow out St. Louis. Instead, it was upset by a final of 10-13 at home. Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times in the loss, and he coughed up a fumble in the closing seconds when the 49ers were ready to take the lead or tie it. They managed just 263 total yards against the Rams after gaining 300 against the Broncos in their previous game.
The injuries are really starting to pile up on the 49ers. They were already without NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, and now they could be without two more starting linebackers this week. Both Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis are questionable to go against the Saints. I know that the 49ers have put up very good numbers defensively in spite of these injuries, but the Saints are fully capable of putting up a big number on this defense just as the Broncos did a few weeks ago when they scored 42 points and gained 419 total yards.
I know the 49ers only lost at New Orleans by a final of 20-23 last year, but this game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgained the 49ers 387-196 for the game, or by 191 total yards. The Saints turned the ball over three times, which allowed the 49ers to hang around. I don’t expect the 49ers to be nearly as fortunate this time around. Drew Brees threw for 305 yards in the win, while Kaepernick went 17-of-31 for 127 yards in the loss. Bet the Saints Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New Orleans Saints -5.5
This number has been moving for good reason. The Saints opened as just 2.5-point favorites over the 49ers, and this line has been bet all the way up to -5.5. Rarely do you see lines move this much in the NFL, and often times there is value in backing the other team, but I don’t believe that to be the case this week. The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL despite their 4-4 record, and that will show again this week.
I backed the Saints hard in their last two games in a 44-23 home win over Green Bay, and a 28-10 road win at Carolina. They were undervalued due to their 2-4 start to the season that easily could have been 5-1. They lost three road games by a combined six points, and many people wrote them off. They could be 7-1 right now had those three games gone the other way.
The numbers show that the Saints are one of the top teams in the NFL. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 66.0 yards per game on the season. They only trail the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos in this department. They are doing it behind an offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL at 436.5 yards per game.
New Orleans ranked 4th in the league in total defense last year, but struggled through the first half of the season on this side of the ball. It has shown signs of life in recent weeks, especially against Carolina last week. It allowed just 10 points and 231 total yards to the Panthers while forcing two turnovers. Now, it has had three extra days of rest to get ready for the 49ers since that game occurred last Thursday.
With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-0 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.
San Francisco is a complete mess right now. After losing to Denver 17-42 on the road, it returned from its bye last week and was expected to blow out St. Louis. Instead, it was upset by a final of 10-13 at home. Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times in the loss, and he coughed up a fumble in the closing seconds when the 49ers were ready to take the lead or tie it. They managed just 263 total yards against the Rams after gaining 300 against the Broncos in their previous game.
The injuries are really starting to pile up on the 49ers. They were already without NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, and now they could be without two more starting linebackers this week. Both Dan Skuta and Patrick Willis are questionable to go against the Saints. I know that the 49ers have put up very good numbers defensively in spite of these injuries, but the Saints are fully capable of putting up a big number on this defense just as the Broncos did a few weeks ago when they scored 42 points and gained 419 total yards.
I know the 49ers only lost at New Orleans by a final of 20-23 last year, but this game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Saints outgained the 49ers 387-196 for the game, or by 191 total yards. The Saints turned the ball over three times, which allowed the 49ers to hang around. I don’t expect the 49ers to be nearly as fortunate this time around. Drew Brees threw for 305 yards in the win, while Kaepernick went 17-of-31 for 127 yards in the loss. Bet the Saints Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Kansas City Chiefs -
So much attention has been given to the Broncos and Chargers in the AFC West, that I think a lot of people are overlooking what the Chiefs have been doing. Kansas City is 5-1 over their last 6 games, with the only loss coming in a closely contested 17-22 defeat at San Francisco. Kansas City has got better with each week and like I have mentioned before, I believe this is a better team than the one that opened last year 9-0.
Each of these teams have played the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots and Chargers. Kansas City defeated all four of those teams, while the Bills went just 2-2 with double-digit losses to both New England and San Diego. I know that Ralph Wilson Stadium can be a difficult place for opposing teams to get a win and Buffalo has an advantage here coming off their bye, but I think it’s created some nice value on Kansas City laying less than a field goal.
Star rookie wide out Sammy Watkins had to leave practice earlier this week with a groin injury and is listed as questionable. Not having Watkins would be a huge blow for the Bills, who are already playing without their top two running backs in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Watkins has caught 12 passes for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Bills back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Jets. Adding to the Watkins injury is the fact that 2nd leading receiver Robert Woods is also listed as questionable with a back injury.
Kansas City’s defense has been one of the more underrated units in the league. The Chiefs come in ranked 1st against the pass (199.4 ypg) 5th overall in total defense (315.5 ypg) and 2nd to only Detroit in scoring defense (17.3 ppg). Kansas City is a mediocre 19th against the run, but without Jackson and Spiller, it’s hard to imagine the Bills will be able to take advantage.
The Chiefs ability to run the football combined with that strong defense makes them a great team to back on the road, as those are the kind of teams that typically travel well. Adding to this is the fact that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS on the road this season and are 10-3 ATS on the road under Andy Reed (5-1 as road favorite).
There’s a nice system in play favoring the Chiefs. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after two straight games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are a dominant 32-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Chiefs. Take Kansas City!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Free Pick on Kansas City Chiefs -
So much attention has been given to the Broncos and Chargers in the AFC West, that I think a lot of people are overlooking what the Chiefs have been doing. Kansas City is 5-1 over their last 6 games, with the only loss coming in a closely contested 17-22 defeat at San Francisco. Kansas City has got better with each week and like I have mentioned before, I believe this is a better team than the one that opened last year 9-0.
Each of these teams have played the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots and Chargers. Kansas City defeated all four of those teams, while the Bills went just 2-2 with double-digit losses to both New England and San Diego. I know that Ralph Wilson Stadium can be a difficult place for opposing teams to get a win and Buffalo has an advantage here coming off their bye, but I think it’s created some nice value on Kansas City laying less than a field goal.
Star rookie wide out Sammy Watkins had to leave practice earlier this week with a groin injury and is listed as questionable. Not having Watkins would be a huge blow for the Bills, who are already playing without their top two running backs in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Watkins has caught 12 passes for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Bills back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Jets. Adding to the Watkins injury is the fact that 2nd leading receiver Robert Woods is also listed as questionable with a back injury.
Kansas City’s defense has been one of the more underrated units in the league. The Chiefs come in ranked 1st against the pass (199.4 ypg) 5th overall in total defense (315.5 ypg) and 2nd to only Detroit in scoring defense (17.3 ppg). Kansas City is a mediocre 19th against the run, but without Jackson and Spiller, it’s hard to imagine the Bills will be able to take advantage.
The Chiefs ability to run the football combined with that strong defense makes them a great team to back on the road, as those are the kind of teams that typically travel well. Adding to this is the fact that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS on the road this season and are 10-3 ATS on the road under Andy Reed (5-1 as road favorite).
There’s a nice system in play favoring the Chiefs. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after two straight games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are a dominant 32-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Chiefs. Take Kansas City!
Art Aronson
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
1* Bonus Play Broncos
Denver is coming off a humiliating loss in New England and I think will take its frustrations out on the lowly Raiders this weekend. If history is any precedence, then the Broncos have to be loving their chances today, since Peyton Manning came to town Denver is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the series. A loss against New England last week can be forgiven, but this is a crucial game as the team must now firmly put that effort in the rear-view mirror and get back to business. And besides the 43-21 setback, note that Denver is still fifth in the league in total offense, seventh in defense and first against the run, holding opponents to just 72 YPG on the ground. And that doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense which desperately needs its run game to help out its weak passing attack; note that Oakland ranks dead last in the league in total offense and rushing and 31st in scoring. If this game was being played at Mile High, surely the Broncos would be a much bigger favorite (-17 perhaps?). Because of the way it lost last week, I think DENVER comes in focused and covers this manageable spread as the game comes down the stretch.
AAA Sports
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
1* Bonus Play Broncos
Denver is coming off a humiliating loss in New England and I think will take its frustrations out on the lowly Raiders this weekend. If history is any precedence, then the Broncos have to be loving their chances today, since Peyton Manning came to town Denver is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the series. A loss against New England last week can be forgiven, but this is a crucial game as the team must now firmly put that effort in the rear-view mirror and get back to business. And besides the 43-21 setback, note that Denver is still fifth in the league in total offense, seventh in defense and first against the run, holding opponents to just 72 YPG on the ground. And that doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense which desperately needs its run game to help out its weak passing attack; note that Oakland ranks dead last in the league in total offense and rushing and 31st in scoring. If this game was being played at Mile High, surely the Broncos would be a much bigger favorite (-17 perhaps?). Because of the way it lost last week, I think DENVER comes in focused and covers this manageable spread as the game comes down the stretch.
AAA Sports
Chip Chirimbes
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chip's FREE NFL Winner Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers (+) over Falcons- This is how bad the Atlanta Falcons really are. Granted injuries have played a large part in the Falcons as well as player defections and poor coaching decisions. Tampa Bay is young and hungry and have made a change a quarterback this week as Josh CoCown is once against behind the center. Buccaneers are hungry for a win and get it in front of the home folks here. Take TAMPA BAY!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chip's FREE NFL Winner Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers (+) over Falcons- This is how bad the Atlanta Falcons really are. Granted injuries have played a large part in the Falcons as well as player defections and poor coaching decisions. Tampa Bay is young and hungry and have made a change a quarterback this week as Josh CoCown is once against behind the center. Buccaneers are hungry for a win and get it in front of the home folks here. Take TAMPA BAY!
Alex Smart
St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Take the points with the Rams 1/2 unit reg selection
50 million dollar man Carson Palmer the director of the Arizona Cardinals aggressive no take prisoners offense, enters into this contest at the helm of the leagues top team and best record.The Cardinals actually have been on a roll since Week 8 of last year. Their 14-3 record (.824) in that time is the league’s best. So no one can be caught of guard by them anymore. The Cardinals defense is also tireless and tenacious, and ranks thrid in the league despite of going helmet to helmet against four of the NFL’s top 10 highest-scoring offences during this campaign. Now enters upstart St.Louis who have a reputation for being nasty and lets say maybe even a little dirty in the trenches , much like the some of the old timers like Deacon Jones might have been considered. But non the less their a tough group and must not be disrepsected. Bottom line: Im betting the Cardinals will get off to another one of their notorious slow starts, and for the Rams to hang tough. The Cards should make another top tier run and get the win, but this one wont be as easy as a Sunday afternoon desert breeze.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Take the points with the Rams 1/2 unit reg selection
50 million dollar man Carson Palmer the director of the Arizona Cardinals aggressive no take prisoners offense, enters into this contest at the helm of the leagues top team and best record.The Cardinals actually have been on a roll since Week 8 of last year. Their 14-3 record (.824) in that time is the league’s best. So no one can be caught of guard by them anymore. The Cardinals defense is also tireless and tenacious, and ranks thrid in the league despite of going helmet to helmet against four of the NFL’s top 10 highest-scoring offences during this campaign. Now enters upstart St.Louis who have a reputation for being nasty and lets say maybe even a little dirty in the trenches , much like the some of the old timers like Deacon Jones might have been considered. But non the less their a tough group and must not be disrepsected. Bottom line: Im betting the Cardinals will get off to another one of their notorious slow starts, and for the Rams to hang tough. The Cards should make another top tier run and get the win, but this one wont be as easy as a Sunday afternoon desert breeze.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Michael Alexander
Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions
1 Unit NFL Free Pick Miami Dolphins
The Lions are coming off a bye and will be taking on a hot Miami team who is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Dolphins have been built for speed and is now taking rapidly to the new offense of former Philly assistant Bill Lazor. Mobile QB Ryan Tannehill has 10 touchdown passes and 227 rushing yards during Miami's hot streak. Offensive lineman Mike Pouncey has returned and defensive end Cameron Wake who has 6½ sacks is leading an improved defense.
Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions
1 Unit NFL Free Pick Miami Dolphins
The Lions are coming off a bye and will be taking on a hot Miami team who is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Dolphins have been built for speed and is now taking rapidly to the new offense of former Philly assistant Bill Lazor. Mobile QB Ryan Tannehill has 10 touchdown passes and 227 rushing yards during Miami's hot streak. Offensive lineman Mike Pouncey has returned and defensive end Cameron Wake who has 6½ sacks is leading an improved defense.
