Sunday's Top Action
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-4) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Buffalo -3, Total: 44.5
AFC East rivals clash in Western New York on Sunday as the Dolphins take on the Bills.
Miami (3-4 SU and ATS) will be looking to regain the momentum it lost last Thursday in a 36-7 thrashing at the hands of New England, while Buffalo (3-4 SU and ATS) is hoping to pull to .500 fresh off its bye week.
The rivalry between these teams spans decades, with the Dolphins leading the all-time series 58-44-1, though the Bills have won four of the past five meetings (SU and ATS), including a 41-14 drubbing in Week 3. Miami has several trends running in its favor.
Visiting teams coming off road loss are 70-32 ATS in November over the past 10 seasons, while road teams with a losing record are 25-5 ATS where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss over the past five years. On the other hand, Buffalo is 47-27 ATS after 2+ consecutive ATS losses since 1992, and 44-25 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their previous 6 games over the same time period.
Besides losing star DE Cameron Wake to a season-ending Achilles injury last Thursday, the Dolphins are fairly healthy at the midway point this season.
There are just three other key player injuries this week, as CB Brice McCain (knee), OT Ja’Wuan James (toe) and WR DeVante Parker are all listed as questionable.
The Bills have been riddled with injuries all season, and this week is no exception. The team hopes to see the return of No. 1 QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), but he'll likely be missing his top two wideouts in WR Percy Harvin (hip) and WR Sammy Watkins (ankle). RB Karlos Williams (concussion) and G John Miller (personal) are both questionable to play on Sunday.
Since starting the season 1-3 and parting ways with head coach Joe Philbin, Miami’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. The team has averaged 29.7 PPG and 402.3 YPG in the past three games, which even accounts for a clunker of a game at New England that saw the Dolphins score just seven points on 270 yards of offense.
QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown a respectable 13 TD on the season (10th in NFL), but has also thrown for 9 INT (4th-worst in the league) and fumbled 5 times (3rd-worst in NFL) while getting sacked 21 times for a league-worst 196 yards lost. Three of Tannehill’s interceptions came against Buffalo in Week 3 in a game that saw him connect on 26-of-49 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns.
The Miami defense has similarly improved after the team’s bye, allowing an average of 76.3 rushing YPG in the past three games. But injured DE Cameron Wake will certainly be missed, as he has proven to be a centerpiece of the Dolphins' pass rush, sacking opposing quarterbacks seven times, which trails only J.J. Watt and Chandler Jones for the entire league. This team is still susceptible to the passing game, allowing 255 YPG (19th in league), and 15 touchdowns (28th in league).
The plague of injuries suffered by Buffalo has resulted in a spotty offensive record through seven games. The team is good for 25.1 PPG (9th in NFL), but generates only 341 YPG (24th in league), while turning over the ball 11 times (17th in NFL), four of which came in the Bills’ last game against the Jaguars in London, a 34-31 defeat.
QB Tyrod Taylor feasted on Miami in the teams’ last matchup, completing 21-of-29 passes for 277 yards and 3 TD, making it imperative for him to be healthy enough to play the entire game. On the ground, rookie RB Karlos Williams had the best game of his short career against the Dolphins, racking up 110 yards and a score, but his likely absence means that Buffalo will lean on star RB LeSean McCoy even more. McCoy had only 11 carries for 16 yards versus Miami, but has totaled 198 yards (158 rushing, 40 receiving) in two games since.
The Bills’ defense has been much too generous at home this season, allowing opponents 28.0 PPG and 367 YPG. The squad has been relatively stout against the run, allowing 92.0 YPG (6th in league) and 4 TD (10th in NFL), but has been equally as porous against the pass as their opponents, giving up an identical 255 YPG (19th in league) and 15 TD (28th in league). Penalties have been an issue for the Bills on both sides of the ball this year, especially at home, where they average 12 flags for 120 yards.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -2.5, Total: 45.5
The Packers and Panthers will square off in Week 9 in an NFC showdown with major playoff implications.
Green Bay (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS), despite coming off a bye, set season lows in rushing and passing yards in a disappointing 29-10 loss to the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Their 500 total yards allowed were the 2nd most they’ve allowed this season, surpassed only by the 548 total yards Phillip Rivers and the top-ranked Chargers offense put up in Week 6, Green Bay’s only other ATS loss this season.
Carolina (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead and any chance to cover the spread against the Colts, but Roman Harper and Luke Kuechly combined on an interception in Colts territory in overtime, leading to a game-winning 52 yard field goal from Graham Gano, keeping the Panthers one game ahead of the Packers for 1st place in the NFC playoff picture. Injuries are of great concern for the Packers.
DBs Sam Shields (Shoulder) and Quinten Rollins (Shoulder) both suffered injuries against the Broncos and didn’t return; their statuses for the Carolina game are unknown. LB Clay Matthews (Ankle) played through an injury suffered during the 2nd half, but said after the game the ankle was a legitimate problem, and his status for the Carolina game is also uncertain.
As for the Packers’ surprisingly low-ranked passing game, WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) has a yet-to-be-determined playing status for the showdown with Carolina. Panthers’ DLs Mario Addison (Shoulder) and Dwan Edwards (Ankle) missed the Colts’ game and are questionable for this one.
The Packers’ offense managed just 3.0 yards per play against Denver’s top-ranked defense, less than half the 6.2 YPP they were averaging on the season entering the game. Aaron Rodgers’ 2.0 passing YPA were a fraction of the 7.8 YPA he’d achieved during the Packers’ 6-0 start.
The Packers’ 140 total yards were the fewest recorded by the team since Week 13 of the 2013 season, a streak of 30 games, including the playoffs. The Packers’ front seven will need impact performances across the board, especially if Matthews is unable to go; Green Bay is 25th in rushing YPG allowed, with Carolina leading the league offensively in that category.
Over the last three years, Green Bay is 9-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, and 12-4 ATS following a road game.
Carolina allowed more than 115 rushing yards for the 4th straight week after holding each of their first three opponents this season under 100. The Panthers are 3rd in the league in interceptions, but will need their front seven (t-21st in sacks) to get pressure on Rodgers, who’s thrown just two interceptions this season (2nd best in the league).
QB Cam Newton is 21-14 ATS in home games since entering the league. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS this season when they’re exactly a three-point favorite, and are now 1-2 ATS in all other games.
DENVER BRONCOS (7-0) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -5, Total: 45.0
In what could be his last trip to Indianapolis, Peyton Manning will look to keep the Denver Broncos undefeated in a showdown with Andrew Luck and the AFC South-leading Colts.
Denver (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) outplayed the previously unbeaten Packers on both sides of the ball on their way to a dominating 29-10 victory on Sunday Night Football, their widest margin of victory this season, while the Colts (3-5 SU and ATS) rallied for 17 points in the final 7:04 of regulation to force overtime at Carolina, before ultimately falling 29-26.
The Broncos started and finished strong, scoring the first 17 points of the game, and the last 12 points of the game after the Packers had cut the deficit to seven points in the 3rd quarter. The Colts briefly took the lead in OT on Adam Vinatieri’s field goal, but allowed a tying field goal from Graham Gano, then turned the ball over on their next possession, leading to Gano’s eventual game-winner.
The Broncos have little in the way of major injuries coming into the game: 2015 1st round pick OLB Shane Ray (Knee) and veteran WR Jordan Norwood (Hamstring) each missed the Packers game and their statuses for Indianapolis are TBD.
For the Colts, WR Phillip Dorsett (Ankle), their 2015 1st round pick, missed the Panthers game. His status for Denver has yet to be determined.
Denver’s offense, for the second straight game, came alive on Sunday night against the Packers, setting season highs in rushing (160) and passing (340) yards. The Broncos’ rushing success nearly doubled their season average of 85 YPG entering the battle of the unbeatens, while Manning threw for more than 300 yards for just the 2nd time this season.
While Denver’s rushing defense allowed a few yards more than the 88.7 YPG it had held opponents to entering the game, it was the passing defense that blew everybody away, holding the Packers’ air attack to just 50 yards, a massive improvement on the previously league-leading 192.7 YPG they’d allowed through the air during their 6-0 start.
Denver is 8-3 ATS in the Peyton era vs. teams with a losing record, and 8-2 ATS over that same time frame against teams who allow more than 24 points a game; the Panthers allow 25.4 following Monday night’s loss.
Indianapolis played 53 minutes of subpar football before both their offense and defense came alive, scoring on each of their final three drives of regulation, and forcing two 3-and-outs from the Panthers’ offense.
However, in overtime, turnovers, which have plagued Luck and the Colts all season long, cost them, as Luke Kuechly’s interception, Carolina’s third of the night, led to the winning score four plays later. The Colts are now tied with the Lions for worst turnover margin in the league at -9, while Luck now leads the league in interceptions thrown, with 12.
The Colts are 3-0 ATS vs. DEN in the Luck vs. Manning era, including two SU victories by the Colts in games Denver entered as at least a six-point favorite, including last year’s AFC Divisional Playoff.
Luck has covered the spread in 20 of his last 28 home games, but he’s just 1-3 ATS in home games this season.
