Sunday 11/8/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 5:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$16000 - 3 & 4 YR. OLD COLTS & GELDINGS NW 5 EXT. PM RACES OR $50,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERENCE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 YIPPITY HANOVER 3/1


# 5 ADMIRAL 2/1


# 6 RAYLAN GIVENS 7/1


YIPPITY HANOVER is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the consortium. This entrant has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 85 avg class rating. Should play well in this contest. With a very nice 85 TrackMaster SR last time out, will very likely be a factor in this race. Respectable driver/trainer, winning 20 percent of the time. Looks a tremendous wager. ADMIRAL - Has one of the most solid win percentages in the bunch and may be able to add to those statistics in this race. The trainer Burke has a knack with this gelding, regularly cashing in their contests. RAYLAN GIVENS - Worth a close look here on the basis of the figures in the speed rating department alone. Good for a win bet just off the amazing prior class figures. Have to like this contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Stakes - 10.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $46000 Class Rating: 100

CLASICO DIA DEL VETERANO S. - DIA DEL VETERANO.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 LLUVIA DE NIEVE 2/1


# 3 DON CARLOS R. 6/5


# 6 SON DE GOMA 7/2


LLUVIA DE NIEVE looks to be a competitive contender. Should finish in the money without any problem. Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Sound average Equibase speed figs in dirt route races make this racer a definite contender. DON CARLOS R. - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this racer look quite good in this race. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 92 - of his last outing. SON DE GOMA - Has been running strongly in races of this distance, going 7 for 18 under similar conditions. Earned a formidable Equibase speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28500 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BELLAMY CONCERTO 5/2


# 9 RPRETTYBOYFLOYD 4/1


# 3 REDNECK HUMOR 9/2


BELLAMY CONCERTO gets the edge as the wager in here. He has a good opportunity in here as trainer, Dominguez, has very strong win rate with horses going this distance. Looks decent versus this group of animals and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last outing. RPRETTYBOYFLOYD - He has been travelling soundly as of late while recording strong Equibase Speed Figs. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. REDNECK HUMOR - Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figs of this group in his last race. Can't overlook the connections here, a 17 winning percentage, one of the best at getting into the winner's circle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Del Mar - Race #2 - Post: 12:59pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $52,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 AMITIE POUR LA VIE (ML=4/1)


AMITIE POUR LA VIE - Based on workouts, I look for this filly to run a big race. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a solid race on Oct 8th. Have to forget about that last grass race. This filly should do better hitting the dirt in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LUCY DE (ML=3/1), #6 MOONIE (ML=7/2), #3 WEST MID (ML=4/1),

LUCY DE - This morning-line favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on her today. MOONIE - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint events in order to support her. Showed very little in the last race. Really can't expect any betterment today. WEST MID - This animal doesn't have a winning nature. Very often finishes near the winner.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - AMITIE POUR LA VIE - My stats say that a proper work-out regimen is key to prepping for a successful race. This filly certainly has enough morning drills to pass that test. Look for her to do well right here in this race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 AMITIE POUR LA VIE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:56pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $9,700 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 MIND THE MASTER (ML=9/2)
#4 DEADLY TRUTH (ML=4/1)
#8 TWELVE TRIBES (ML=5/2)


MIND THE MASTER - That last morning drill tells me this gelding is set for a top race. That last race must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. This gelding's last speed figure is good enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back this time. Have to like the way O'Callaghan has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This gelding has lots of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they turn for home and hit the stretch. DEADLY TRUTH - I'm focusing on the class of this beautiful animal, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. If you review the PP's for this animal, you'll see he has recorded the top speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. TWELVE TRIBES - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong race on Oct 17th. This gelding is in the top spot in earnings per race entered. Give the once over to this one in the paddock. You have to bet this equine at a track he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 THUNDER (ML=5/1), #2 WHIZ HIT (ML=6/1), #6 ST PATRICKS APPEAL (ML=8/1),

THUNDER - Tough for this closer animal to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone front speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to register a better rating than last out to be competitive in this turf sprint. WHIZ HIT - Didn't do alot last time out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. ST PATRICKS APPEAL - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this gelding finished fourth. This gelding hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance contests. Tough to play him in this event. Don't feel this entrant will make a winning move today. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MIND THE MASTER - My research shows that horses with lone pace win much more than their fair share of races. This horse has lone early speed.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 MIND THE MASTER to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:43 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $57,000.00 PURSE

#7 MY SUPER NOVA
#5 GOLDEN GEMZ
#4 SHOTGUN LOVE
#1 SHE'S ALL EVEN

#7 MY SUPER NOVA takes a class drop (-4), and is the overall speed leader in this allowance field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last three starts. #5 GOLDEN GEM also drops in class, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last four outings, hitting the board in a pair. The 4-1 shot, #4 SHOTGUN LOVE has hit the board in three of her last five "adventures" overall with her last two board hit races, including a win in her 2nd race back, also qualifying as "PLOWER RUNS." The 10-1 BOMB, #1 SHE'S ALL EVEN has hit the board in four straight, winning in her last start, however, none of these "board hit efforts," met my criteria to be tabbed as a "POWER RUN."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Sunday 11/8 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 344 - 1048 / $1,890.80 BEST BETS: 51 - 84 / $177.40

Best Bet: UNCLE GOODFELLOW (9th)

Spot Play: SAM’S ESCAPE (10th)


Race 1

(2) NOT AFRAID drops to a new low and is reunited with Dube; this looks like a now-or-never spot for the Takter trainee. (5) FOR YOU ALMOSTFREE didn't fire last out but that was after a sick scratch and some missed time; Bartlett sticks with the Banca trainee and he has a decent midpack post to work with. (1) ZOEY DE VIE just missed last out, is sharp and impossible to ignore.

Race 2

(9) ZORGWIJK NOVA broke before the start last out losing all chance; mare's prior efforts since shipping in were solid and she deserves another chance at an improved price. (10) CALIPARI drops a notch off some even efforts and he was Brennan's choice. (6) MESMERIZED ships in from Indiana for Julie Miller with some stakes experience and he put in a good effort when last on a half-mile track.

Race 3

(8) ZOOMING is stuck on the far outside but at least he gets to have his nose on the gate; perhaps Buter can generate some early speed and get the jump on (10) LUMINOSITY. The latter is the King of the Open and is looking for six of seven, but will have to navigate early traffic. (1) SUMATRA should be saving ground and can shake free with late trot.

Race 4

(6) SWISHNFLICK could not last the duration last week but the trotting mare is still sharp and deserves another chance. (3) BOFFIN regained his form out of town and looms a major player. (4) KASCARA ROSA flew home from nowhere last out and she was a winner three back at the added distance.

Race 5

(3) I'M FABULOUS had some decent late trot from too far back in her last two; veteran trotting mare can power home with smooth late sailing. (2) MASSIVE TALENT raced well versus better when last seen locally. (5) MUGSHOT JESS gets Stratton back in the bike and they teamed up to win at this level a few months back.

Race 6

(3) SCOTTISH CROSS looks for five straight and is simply too sharp to ignore. (1) MONROE COUNTY debuts for Banca via claim and is a clear threat if she can mind her manners. (2) KLM EXPRESS drops back to a more appropriate level and should be saving ground close up.

Race 7

(2) CAPTURETHEMEMORY made up good ground after breaking early last out as the heavy favorite; trotting mare seems to be on a 'break every other start' schedule which means she will jog here. Keep your fingers crossed. (5) TRADING PLACES gave way after an uncovered trip last out which makes two poor efforts in a row; she's better than that. (3) LUKAS HALL closed well last out and he shouldn't be too far back.

Race 8

(1) BUBBIE BOY has been knocking on the door for some time now and he draws best in an unreliable field. (2) MOVEOUTOFMYWAY flashed speed and raced okay in his local return. (3) MISSISSIPPI HIPPY gets needed post relief and two back he actually passed horses late which is a positive sign.

Race 9

(4) UNCLE GOODFELLOW launched a nice wide move from too far back last out and his two prior starts he just missed in tough beats; Allard trainee is ready to explode. (1) DELLA CRUISE doesn't win often but he'll be close up from this spot. (3) STAY UP LATE rallied well inside last out and he can kick in late again today.

Race 10

(8) SAM'S ESCAPE had plenty of pace last out but was never put into the game by Bartlett; he gets stuck in the eight hole but I expect a more aggressive drive. (4) SIX GUN has been super in all recent and is the one to beat. (6) SANTANNA ONE hasn't put in a bad effort in some time and he rates highly here.

Race 11

(3) TWIN B HOLLISTER looked a bit off last out and gave way late; he's back with Bartlett today and perhaps he's got the magic touch. (4) PANIC DISORDER has been sharp, gets needed post relief and looms a solid threat. (2) MOJO TERROR was good in defeat in his debut for the Burke barn but he faces tougher here.

Race 12

(5) JUSTA CAMILION was in a bit too deep in his last three but he drops to a reduced level and meets a very suspect field; worth a swing in the finale. (1) RANCOUSY draws best, has speed and the live hands of Scott Zeron. (4) SHORTSTACKED is capable of a big effort at any time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Wheels Up Now, 7-2
(7th) Cozy Kitten, 3-1


Churchill Downs (3rd) Magical Moment, 4-1
(9th) Saffron Hall, 7-2


Del Mar (1st) China Girl Lover, 5-1
(8th) Our Pure Creation, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Apollo's Legacy, 7-2
(9th) Colorado Strong, 4-1


Gulfstream Park West (5th) Air Squadron, 9-2
(10th) Tonite Tonite, 7-2


Laurel (1st) Bissinger, 3-1
(9th) Cavort, 3-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Germanic, 7-2
(8th) Tarty to the Party, 8-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Money Tree, 3-1
(7th) Thunder, 5-1


Woodbine (4th) Teresa's Pride, 6-1
(6th) Golden Sabre, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 8 season record: 25-22-2

6) Giants, -2.5-- Bucs' WR Evans could light up the Giants' defense.

5) Broncos -5 (456)-- Struggling Colts welcome an old friend back home.

4) Rams +1.5 (461)-- Matchup of teams on the upswing.

3) Eagles, -2.5 (508)-- Cowboys are 0-5 since Romo got hurt.

2) Jets -6.5 (555)-- Jets get center Mangold back from an injury.

1) Steelers -4 (706)-- Underdog covered all three Oakland road games. .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

TITANS at SAINTS 1:00 PM

Take: TITANS +7.5

The Miami Dolphins made a coaching change a handful of weeks ago, and got a tremendous response out of the gate as fiery Dan Campbell took over for the very placid Joe Philbin. The team played with much more energy and earned two impressive wins. As is usually the case, regression set in last week for the Dolphins as they were manhandled at New England. But the point was still made. The Dolphins were residing in Deadsville with the ultra-bland Philbin and benefited from the coaching change.

I think the same thing could happen today as Mike Mularkey takes over from Ken Whisenhunt as head coach of the Tennessee Titans. This team was as flat as a pancake and going nowhere with Whisenhunt running things. While the personnel isn’t good enough for a massive transformation with Mularkey at the helm, I absolutely believe the Titans can be better than they’ve been so far this season.

Mularkey made one immediate change and it appears to have received a very favorable response from the players. He really got things revved up at practice with 9-on-7 drills that emphasized running the football. All reports indicate the players really got into it and I believe we will see a more confident and excited Titans squad taking the field today at New Orleans.

The Saints have sprung to life following their bad start and have a chance to actually cross the .500 plateau with a win today. But this is still not a particularly good football team when scanning the statistical and metric data. They’re clearly better than they were when they were winless, but the Saints don’t impress me as a team that should be laying more than a touchdown to anyone.

The Saints are still a bottom dweller on the defensive efficiency charts, and while the Titans are surely not an offensive juggernaut, they should show some life here with their starting QB back on then field. Tennessee rates as the better defensive team, and in fact, I’ll submit the Titans stop unit is not all that bad.

But this play really has little to do with any statistical data. It’s more about the coaching transplant that anything else. I like the Titans to arrive at the Superdome fired up and ready for action and I fully expect them to give the Saints a real run for their money today. That means I’ll have my money on Tennessee plus the points to at least stay within the generous spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: Sun Phil Eagles -2 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Bonus Play Indianapolis Colts

I'm recommending a play on the Colts on Sunday. We had the Colts and got the late cover on Monday night and we'll play them again here. The Colts closed a 5-point underdog at Carolina on Monday, and while they are home for this one we see a line of 5 1/2. That line does grab my attention. Andrew Luck says he's healthy now and there was a shakeup this week when Pep Hamilton was shown the door. I expect a better offensive game plan, looking to utilize what Luck does best, but giving him the type of protection a QB needs. T.Y. Hilton is questionable. Obviously, we would like it if he plays, but he doesn't need to suit-up for this to be a play. Denver doesn't blow teams out. The offense looked better last week, but has been pedestrian more often than not in 2015. While I like the addition of TE Vernon Davis this week, I don't believe we're going to see an immediate improvement by the Bronco offense. We should note that NFL favorites with a winning record, have covered just four of the last 30 if they're off an outright win as an underdog at home. Denver fits the bill after beating Green Bay last week and I do believe they're overvalued here. I'm recommending a play on the Colts plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Eagles -3

There are so many factors favoring the Eagles heading into this game that laying the 3 points with them is the only choice if you are going to play this game at all. First off, they are coming off their bye, so they are going to be well-rested and ready to go. That extra time will certainly have helped them figure out their problems on offense. I expect to see a vastly improved Eagles offense this week as a result.

Second, the Cowboys are 0-5 without Tony Romo. They have been outscored by 49 points in their five consecutive defeats, or by an average of 9.8 points per game. Their offense has been horrendous, including last week when they managed just 220 total yards against the Seahawks. But their defense hasn’t been any better as the Cowboys have allowed 26 or more points in four of their five losses. They have all kinds of issues on both sides of the football.

Third, home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team has actually won five straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the Eagles and Cowboys. It’s hard to explain, but for whatever reason the road team just dominates the series. It kind of makes sense because the Cowboys and Eagles have two of the worst home-field advantages. The Eagles are quick to boo in Philadelphia, while AT&T Stadium attracts a ton of fans from opposing teams.

This struggling Cowboys offense isn’t going to be able to get much going against what is one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. The Eagles are only allowing 19.6 points per game this season against opponents that average 24.6 points per game, holding them to 5.0 points below their season averages. They also give up 5.4 yards per play against opposing offenses that average 5.7 per play.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) – off a road loss, with a losing record are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Philadelphia is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games when revenging a loss against an opponent. Jason Garrett is 15-26 ATS in all home games as the coach of Dallas. The Eagles need a win and will be looking to avenge their earlier loss to the Cowboys. They would love nothing more than to add to Dallas' misery. Bet the Eagles Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 8 is:

Jaguars and Jets 'under' 42.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRAD WILTON

Let's take the points with the improving Raiders as they play at Pittsburgh this Sunday afternoon.

Oakland has won and covered both games since their bye week, as they are actually above .500 at 4-3 on the year.

Pittsburgh welcomed back Ben Roethlisberger, but Big Ben was quite rusty tossing 3 interceptions in the Steelers 16-10 loss at home to Cincinnati.

This is the middle game of 3 straight at home before their bye week, and while Pittsburgh should have enough to get past Oakland, this new-look, new-coach Oakland team is starting to look like they are finally on the right track. The Raiders have won and covered 2 of 3 on the road this year, so let's back them plus the points to keep things close at Heinz Field.

Raiders as the live dog your Sunday comp play.

3* OAKLAND

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CRAIG DAVIS

Your Bonus Play of the day is the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday night football. At the time of this writing, the Eagles are 3-point road favorites in Dallas as the battle for the NFC East crown is still up for grabs.

Simply put, the Eagles didn't like the way the first meeting went between these two teams at home. A cheap shot by a rookie knocked Tony Romo out of the game, but yet the Eagles still couldn't get into the end zone until very late in the game when it was already decided.

Now the Eagles are playing better on both sides of the ball and will make Matt Cassel's night a miserable one. He's been awful since taking over the job from Brandon Weeden, so the Cowboys have been one-dimensional ever since... and maybe that's why they haven't won a game since then.

Revenge speaks very loudly in the NFL, even if it's on the road.

Take the Eagles minus the points as your Bonus Play of the day.

3* PHILADELPHIA

 

[mcot1016]

Leiner:
2000* NFL Over 48.5 Raiders/Steelers
500* NBA Knicks -4
100* NFL Broncos -5
100* NFL Patriots -14
100* NBA Over 190.


Jack Jones & Jimmy Boyd Please

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chance of rain in San Francisco Sunday

According to weather forecasts, there is a 58 percent possibility of rain in Santa Clara when the San Francisco 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons at Levi's Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures in Santa Clara will be in the low-60s and wind is expected to blow across the field at around six miles per hour during game time.

Books opened the struggling 49ers as 4-point home underdogs but that has since moved all the way to +7.5. The total is down to 44 from the opening 45.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rain, thunderstorms possible in Tampa Bay Sunday

Weather forecasts are expecting a 73 percent possibility of of rain and thunderstorms in Tampa Bay when the Buccaneers host the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures in Tampa will be in the low-80s/high70s during the game with wind expected to blow across the field at around six miles per hour.

The Bucs are presently 2.5-point home dogs, the same number as open, but the total has increased to 50 from the opening number of 47.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dolphins are a dreadful bet against division foes

The Dan Campbell era got off to a flying start as the Miami Dolphins won back-to-back games for their new hew head coach, but that came to a screeching halt at the New England Patriots last week. The Pats defeated the Dolphins 36-7, but losing within the AFC East, and especially against the spread, is nothing new for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins will visit another AFC East foe, the Buffalo Bills, Sunday afternoon, and have posted a record of 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread in their last six games against division opponents.

The one time the Fish won outright was in Week 13 of last season when they prevailed 16-13 at the New York Jets, but couldn't cover the number as 6.5-point road favorites.

This week, the Dolphins are getting 2.5-point after opening +3.