Sunday 11/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 12 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

You ever have one of those NFL weeks where you feel like everything is going to go chalk and you back all the favorites from a betting perspective or perhaps in a Confidence Pool? This feels like one of those weeks to me, which naturally means there will be a ton of upsets.

But Thanksgiving went exactly to form will all three favorites winning: Detroit over Minnesota, Dallas over Washington, and Pittsburgh over Indianapolis. Two of the three covered -- Dallas just missed. On my Thursday preview of the week here at Doc's, I recommended Pittsburgh and the "under" total and it won 28-7 against the Andrew Luck-less Colts. That was easy money.

Of course, the Lions trailed in the fourth quarter again Thursday as they have in every game this season. Since 2008, eight teams have trailed in the fourth quarter in each of their first 11 games. The Lions are 7-4. The other seven teams went 4-73 combined through 11 games. In addition, just two teams in NFL history have seven wins in a single season in games they trailed in the fourth quarter: these Lions and the 2009 Colts. The head coach of both? Jim Caldwell. Those Colts went 14-2 and reached the Super Bowl. Hey, the Cubs won the World Series this year, so maybe the Lions can actually reach the first Super Bowl in their history. Barring a collapse, Detroit will win its first division title in more than two decades.

I legitimately can only see three underdogs winning outright this week: Houston (+1, which I don't even really consider a dog) vs. San Diego, Kansas City (+3.5) at Denver, and Green Bay (+4) at Philadelphia. Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 12.

Giants at Browns (-7, 44.5): I touched on this Monday in my Opening Line Report and the spread hasn't moved. All seven of the Giants' wins and nine of their 10 games have been decided by one possession. I do want to mention two specials since released that involve this game. The first is whether Giants second-year safety Landon Collins has an interception, with "yes" at +250 and "no" at -400. Collins has been a big reason why the Giants have won five straight as he is playing like a monster and is in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Collins has five total picks in the past four games as well at least one in each. Josh McCown gets the start at QB for the Browns and he has six picks in 122 attempts this year. Worth a shot at yes. Then there's the usual "Will the Browns Go 0-16" prop with no-only at -500. I think they will get one at home. It could be Week 14 out of their bye against the sinking Bengals or Week 16 against the probably nothing-to-play-for Chargers.

Titans at Bears (+5, 42): Biggest line move on the board as this opened at a pick'em and a total of 45.5. The Titans, road favorites for the first time since Dec. 22, 2013 (-4 at Jacksonville and pushed in 20-16 win), are taking a big lean and certainly that's because Chicago apparently will start Matt Barkley at quarterback. Nothing had come out about a Jay Cutler injury early Monday or I would have addressed that. I watched the Bears' game against the Giants last week and Cutler never looked banged up to me (just lousy). But there are reports he has a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, although the secretive Bears aren't saying anything and simply calling him day-to-day. Cutler hasn't practiced as of this writing and it sounds as if his season and Bears career is over -- there's no chance Cutler is back next year. Barkley's only other game action in Chicago came in Week 7 in Green Bay, when he completed six of 15 passes and threw a pair of interceptions. The Bears literally have nothing left with WR Alshon Jeffrey and LB Jerrell Freeman suspended, top offensive lineman Kyle Long and TE Zach Miller out for the season, and guys like WR Eddie Royal, LG Josh Sitton and OLB Leonard Floyd all unlikely this week due to injuries. This might be the most anonymous team in the NFL on Sunday. The Titans, by contrast, are relatively healthy.

Panthers at Raiders (-3, 49.5): Opened at -4 and 48. I actually would have given the Panthers a pretty good shot of winning here as they are on extra rest after beating New Orleans last Thursday and the Raiders on a short week after beating Houston Monday night and having some interesting travel back from Mexico. But Carolina is really banged up. Linebacker Luke Kuechly almost surely is out as he's in the concussion protocol. You probably saw the footage of him crying while being carted off against the Saints. He's one of the five best defensive players in the NFL, so that's big. Also likely out are defensive end Mario Addison (foot), the team's sacks leader, cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and center Ryan Kalil (shoulder). Oakland got out of Monday's win pretty healthy.

Rams at Saints (-7.5, 45.5): This opened at 6.5. I should say that some sportsbooks do still have it with New Orleans at -7 and I think that half -point could be important here as the Rams have been playing terrific defense for the past month or so but getting little help from the offense. I doubt that unit does too much Sunday as Jared Goff makes his first road start and has to deal with noise for the first time. New Orleans running back Mark Ingram suffered a potential concussion last Thursday night but has been improving and actually is likely to play -- certainly those few extra days helped him. As for Drew Brees, he has 26 TD passes and with four in this game would tie Peyton Manning and Brett Favre for the most seasons with at least 30 TD passes (nine) and extend his NFL-record streak of consecutive seasons with 30+ TD throws to nine. The Rams rank No. 5 against the pass and have allowed 15 TDs through the air. Brees probably has to wait until next week to hit 30.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 12 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

If you’re been reading this column this season, you know by now I’m a proud Canadian, which definitely has its perks.

This is one of those weeks with one of those perks because it is American Thanksgiving. Yes, I am thankful for American Thanksgiving.

For those who don’t know, Canadian Thanksgiving is the second Monday of October instead of the fourth Thursday in November and while I enjoy being with family and friends more than anything on this holiday, our turkey day doesn’t revolve around the NFL like it does for those of you state side. Luckily for me, my family is a football family and we now celebrate both.

First of all, what’s not to love about a Thursday in November with 12 straight hours of NFL football? Not to bash the CFL (the Grey Cup is tomorrow, go RedBlacks), but it’s just not the same. We play touch football when we’re off work or done school and the majority of the family participates in a surprisingly competitive fantasy football league, so there's plenty of yelling at the television no matter who's playing.

So in honor of our love for the great American game, my family started having American Thanksgiving feasts to go along with it. We don't half-ass it either. It's turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes and pie. The whole shebang. What’s better than Thanksgiving in October? Thanksgiving in October and November. That’s what.

I’m also thankful for having the type of job I do. One that, holiday or not, I get to be doing something I love, watching and writing about football. I'm thankful I get to write this column and I’m thankful I get to redeem myself after a pitiful 0-3 ATS Week 11.

So with it being a Thanksgiving themed week, it seems appropriate to start off this week’s underdog column talking about a bird, a red bird, to be precise.

I am still clinging on to hope the Arizona Cardinals will at some point look like the team they've been for the past two seasons. There's just too much talent at the skill positions and the defense can still be dominant.

Carson Palmer has regressed this season, completing just 62.1 percent of his passes with just 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. But if he will ever break out it should be this week. He gets to go up against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that ranks dead last, giving up 283 yards per game.

But what I really believe in is the Cardinals defense. They will have their hands full with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons third-ranked offense, but it’s a task this defense can handle. They rank first in total and passing defense and get Tyrann Mathieu back this week.

Six-points are just too many for a defense this good.

Pick: Cardinals +6

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins

On paper, bettors should be thankful to back the Dolphins in this matchup. Miami just needs to feed the ball to Jay Ajayi against the league’s worst rush defense and they’ll easily cover.

But that won’t be the case.

The Dolphins head into this game with a make-shift offensive line. Miami will be without starting center Mike Pouncey (out long-term, hip) and will likely will be without left tackle Branden Albert (wrist surgery last week) and Laremy Tunsil (shoulder). They ended up with Sam Young playing left tackle last week, and he was signed off the street a little more than a month ago.

A fully healthy Carlos Hyde has a great matchup against a Dolphins run defense that allows the third most rushing yards per game this season.

Additionally, Colin Kaepernick seems to be finding his groove, throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games. He has also rushed for 260 yards at a clip of 7.2 yards per clip and a touchdown since becoming the Niners' starter once again.

Pick: 49ers +7.5

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Denver Broncos

This game could go a long way in determining the champion of the AFC West and both the Chiefs and Broncos have a lot of the same issues.

Their passing offenses are less than inspiring and both are dealing with running back injuries. We all know by now how good the Broncos’ defense is, but the Chiefs are no joke either.

While they rank 25th in total yards allowed, they clamp down in the red zone and rank eighth in points per game, allowing just 18.9. Plus, now that Justin Houston is back, the Chiefs defense has a completely different attitude.

Simply put, I think this game is won by a late field goal.

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

Last Week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 18-14-1 ATS (56 percent)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Tough travels for NFL road teams on Thanksgiving weekend
By JASON LOGAN

You don’t have to be a Thanksgiving traveler to sympathize with the plight of Steve Martin and John Candy in the 1987 comedy Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. You only need to know the feeling of being in one place, and desperately wanting to be in another.

If you haven’t seen John Hughes’ “laugh out loud until you choke and do that scary half laugh, half cough” classic, go find a young priest and an old priest because I fear for your soul. But in short, the movie is about being home for Thanksgiving.

That’s a challenge for shower curtain ring salesmen and NFLers alike, especially those who play on the road during the holiday weekend. For those pro footballers, the Thanksgiving Thursday is a blurry blitz of game prep, travel plans, and family time before rushing off to that week’s destination, which – if recent records would indicate – translates into a rough Sunday for visiting teams.

Over the past two seasons, NFL road teams taking the field on the Sunday after Thanksgiving are a dismal 6-18 SU and ATS, failing to cover 75 percent of the time. Those visiting teams have been outscored 28.46-19.79 in those two dozen games – a difference of 8.67 points – while going up against an average spread of +2.2.

The Thanksgiving travel jinx bites road favorites even harder, with visitors giving the points going just 1-6 ATS (3-4 SU) on the Sunday after Thanksgiving since 2014. Those faves were outscored 21.57-19.57 versus an average spread of -3.2 points.

There are five teams pegged as road favorites for this post-Thanksgiving Sunday’s schedule: Tennessee (-5 at Chicago), New York (-7 at Cleveland), San Diego (-1.5 at Houston), Seattle (-6 at Tampa Bay), and New England (-7.5 at the N.Y. Jets).

Hopefully, for those backing NFL teams traveling on the holiday weekend, your bankroll doesn’t resemble a flaming rental car on the side of a frozen highway when Thanksgiving is said and done.

Now, a little perspective

While the above trend is unsettling for those looking to play on road teams in Week 12, it is a very short term tally and one that actually goes against a contrasting trend that developed with road teams on the Sunday after Thanksgiving from 2005 to 2013.

In that span, NFL teams taking to the highway on the holiday weekend were 58-37-2 ATS (46-51 SU), covering the spread 59 percent of the time. Those visiting squads were outscored by an average final of 21.50-21.06 with an average pointspread of +2.9 points – more than half a point higher than the last two seasons.

Since 2005, road favorites are 20-15-1 ATS (57 percent) on the Sunday after Thanksgiving – were 19-9-1 ATS from 2005 to 2013 - while road pups boast a 44-39-1 ATS mark in that situation (and one game closed at a pick’em).

So what do all these records mean? As we’ve seen with many trends, they go up and down, and most often balance out over time. After a peak for road teams on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, we could be in the middle of a valley, considering their production the past two seasons.

Get low

Week 11 of the NFL season was a windfall for Under bettors, with 10 of the 12 games played last Sunday finishing below the betting total. When the dust cleared, Week 11 stood as the sixth-most lopsided day in terms of Over/Under results going back to 1985.

As we noted in the Week 9 edition of The Muffed Punt:

“There has been a decisive edge for the Under from Week 9 to 17 over the past two NFL season, with those games finishing a combined 116-152-4 Over/Under – staying below the number 58 percent of the time. And, going back to 2011, the Under is a collective 417-318-11 (57 percent) in the final nine weeks of regular season action.”

Since we dropped that knowledge, NFL teams have combined for an 18-23 Over/Under count (56 percent Unders) in the last three weeks with the bulk of those Under paydays coming last Sunday.

As mentioned in the above section, trends do tend to even themselves out. With that in mind, we looked back over the past 31 years and the four weeks with the most lopsided Under results to see what happened the following week:

- 12-1 Under (92.3 percent) Week 3, 1991-92 / Week 4 6-8 O/U
- 11-1 Under (91.67 percent) Week 9, 1995-96 / Week 10 7-7 O/U
- 12-2 Under (85.7 percent) Week 1, 1996-97 / Week 2 6-8-1 O/U
- 11-2 Under (84.6 percent) Week 2, 1993-94 / Week 3-7 O/U

Those four follow-up weeks finished with a combined 22-30-1 Over/Under record, playing below the total at a 58 percent clip. Two of the three Thanksgiving Day games went Under, so perhaps there are more low-scoring games to come.

Mini bye

The Thursday games can be a pain in the butt for NFL teams, having to turnaround and play on a short week. However, afterwards those squads enjoy a mini bye week, getting a few extra days of downtime before their next outing.

Here are some interesting trends pulled from our archives on teams coming off a Thursday outing:

- Games involving teams coming off a Thursday contest have gone 111-82-5 Over/Under (58 percent Over) since 2010.

- Favorites coming off a Thursday game are 50-46-2 ATS while underdogs coming off a Thursday tilt are 46-51-3 ATS.

This week, the Saints and Panthers are the two qualifying teams, with Carolina edging New Orleans last Thursday.

The Saints are at home giving a touchdown to the Rams Sunday, and favorites of -7 or higher coming off a Thursday game are 17-10-1 ATS since 2010, covering 63 percent of the time. As for the Panthers, they’re getting three points in Oakland, and underdogs of +3 or lower off a Thursday game are just 15-20-2 ATS over the last seven years (42 percent).

Sharps like...

There are three teams drawing sharp money in Week 12: San Diego, San Francisco, and the New York Jets. Wiseguys have trimmed the 49ers from +8 to +7 at Miami, while the Jets have been bet down from +9 to +7.5. However, according to Jason Simbal, the vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, the Chargers have been the biggest sharp selection Sunday, moving from pick'em to -2.5 (-115) at Houston.

Biggest move...

San Diego at Houston. As noted, smart money on the road team has pushed this spread off the fence, from pick'em to Bolts -2.5.

Biggest sweat...

Seattle at Tampa Bay. According to Simbal, there are four times more tickets written on Seattle and 2.3 times more money riding on the Seahawks, who are 6-point favorites in Tampa Sunday. He also noted that the Giants -7 is tied to the most parlays and the Titans are also drawing some big public plays, giving 5.5 points to the hapless Bears on the road.

Banker game...

Seattle at Tampa Bay. With such a one-sided handle, this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff is the key game for sportsbooks in Week 12.

"If the Giants cover and the Titans cover, we're going to need the Bucs in a big way," says Simbal. "If Tampa Bay could somehow win that game, it would be good for all the books - no matter what happens in any of the other games. It will mean that much."

Injury to watch

Offensive line, Miami Dolphins

One offensive lineman goes down. The line isn’t going to budge. But three go down, and sportsbooks raise an eyebrow. Miami has a cluster of injuries to its blocking corps, with Pro Bowlers C Mike Pouncey (hip) and LT Branden Albert (wrist), as well as rookie G and Draft Day drama queen Laremy Tunsil (shoulder) all missing practice time this week.

The Dolphins haven’t officially ruled any of the o-linemen out, but it isn’t looking good. Tunsil returned for limited work later in the week but his injured shoulder could be more of a liability, especially if he slides over to left tackle as Miami plays musical chairs up front. Despite these missing cogs, the Fins are still giving the Niners 7.5 points at home.

We know how to pick’em

The Chargers and Texans mix it up in Houston, and books originally opened this game at a pick. Action on the road side, bumped this spread to as big as Bolts -2.5. Here we have a very good road bet going up against a very good home bet: San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games away from home while Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five inside NRG Stadium.

Rather than bend you’re turkey-soaked brain out of shape, do what we do in this spot each week and forget about the stats and matchups. Pick the team with the hottest cheerleaders.

Sunday’s menu

Just like a mall security guard on Black Friday, I had to call for back up this week. My wife is away on vacation with her family in the tropics, and I’m home on the frozen Canadian tundra with the little ones. But I’m not alone. My mom jumped on a plane and came all the way from the Maritimes to help out – bless her heart.

In honor of her and my former stomping grounds, I’m serving up some seafood chowder – Nova Scotia style.

Easy (money) like Sunday morning

My weekly pick has mutated into some sick self-deprecating experiment. After going 2-7 in the first nine weeks of the season, I said “ah, f#ck it” and started flipping a coin. Hell, it couldn’t get much worse, right?

Two weeks into that strategy and the coin is unblemished at 2-0, most recently scoring a winner on the Bears +7.5 at New York last week.

OK, I won’t waste anymore of your time explaining how I suck. I know you’re here to hear what the coin says…

First we select a game at random (eyes closed on our live odds page). Da-da-da... San Diego at Houston!

And now, the coin will bequeath its knowledge, courtesy of a brand spanking new Canadian dime.

Heads: Chargers. Tails: Texans.

And it is… TAILS!

Pick: Texans +1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David

Week 11 and Thanksgiving Day Recaps

The ‘under’ produced an 11-3 record in Week 11 as the defensive units dominated the offense last week. Only three teams were able to score 30-plus points and some of those numbers were misleading. The Redskins and Patriots scored 20 and 17 points respectively in the fourth quarter of their wins and the Vikings received 14 of their points from defense and special teams.

Thanksgiving Day continued the ‘under’ trend (2-1) and it was almost a perfect day for the low side but the Cowboys and Redskins combined for 34 points in the final 15 minutes and the ‘over’ winner certainly made the turkey taste better for many.

Excluding the holiday results, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with an 82-78-1 record through 11 weeks.

Week 12 – Keep an Eye on!

-- The Saints host the Rams on Sunday and New Orleans hasn’t had a total (45 ½) this low at home since the 2010 regular season when they met Seattle at the Superdome. The number seems fair considering Los Angeles has a very sound defense (18.7 PPG) and the combination of a rookie quarterback and Jeff Fisher scream ‘under’ tickets.

-- San Diego has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 this season, 4-1 on the road. However, the Bolts meet a Houston defense (16.4 PPG) that has been great at home.

-- The ‘over’ has gone 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings between the Jets and Patriots.

-- Oakland has watched the ‘over’ cash in four straight and eight of 10 games this season. Carolina visits this weekend and if you take away a pair of indoor shootouts, the Panthers defense (19.6 PPG) has stepped up in outdoor games.

-- The Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 in the second-half of their first 11 games, due to an offense averaging a league low 5.5 points per game in the final 30 minutes.

Road System

Since I started writing Total Talk in 2008, I’ve always appreciated the user feedback and love when trends, angles and systems are brought to my attention. The goal is to inform and entertain, and hopefully help you win all of your wagers. With that being said, this particular total system was sent to me years ago and it’s something to keep an eye this weekend.

What’s the angle?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

The above fits this weekend when Green Bay plays at Philadelphia on Monday night. This situation only happens one another time this regular season, which will take place in Week 14 when Washington will play its third consecutive road game, coincidentally at Philadelphia.

I’ve charted the outcomes and the system has produced a 39-19-1 (67%) record the past 12 seasons but it did go 2-2 in the 2015 matchups.

Week 5: Jacksonville 31 at Tampa Bay 38 (Over 41 ½)
Week 10: Miami 20 at Philadelphia 19 (Under 49 ½)
Week 12: Buffalo 22 at Kansas City 30 (Over 41)
Week 15: Atlanta 17 at Jacksonville 23 (Under 48)

Coast to Coast

This popular seasonal total trend returns in Week 12 with three situations on tap. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed. West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 11-1 (91.6%) this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 22-6 (79%) when these situations arise.

Obviously no system is perfect and I’d advise you to still handicap the matchup rather than betting this blindly. A case in point would be Week 10 when the Rams defeated the Jets 9-6 on the road in Week 10. New York made a late QB change and the ‘over’ never had a chance.

Arizona at Atlanta: This matchup has all the makings for a shootout and it’s the highest number (50 ½) on the board. The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 on the road and Atlanta has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team (8-2) this season. Arizona has made two trips to the East Coast this season and has surrendered 33 and 30 points.

San Francisco at Miami: This total (44 ½) seems a little tricky because Miami has serious injuries across the offensive line and that showed in last week’s effort at Los Angeles (14-10). The 49ers scoring defense is still ranked last (31.3 PPG) and they’ve allowed 46 and 45 points in two trips to the East Coast this season. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 at Hard Rock Stadium this season but a couple of those tickets were helped with late scores.

Seattle at Tampa Bay: Another tough total (45) to handicap because I believe Tampa Bay will have the opportunity to score on this banged-up Seattle defense. While I expect the Seahawks to move the ball, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid the last two weeks (both wins) with six turnovers and four sacks. The Bucs have been lit up at home this season (29.4 PPG) but the Seattle offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (17.4 PPG) on the road. The ‘Hawks scored 27 and 31 points in two East Coast matchups this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them based on making two cross-country trips in three weeks. Fortunately for Seattle, this is a late game (4:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the primetime matchups last week and both tickets to the high side cashed with late fourth quarter surges. Including Thursday’s holiday result between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the ‘under’ has gone 19-16-1 this season.

Kansas City at Denver: It’s always dangerous to lean ‘under’ with low totals (38 ½) but that appears to be the right lean based on what we’ve seen from the pair lately. The Chiefs have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 this season and that includes a run of six straight. Denver has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven and it’s been a solid ‘under’ bet off its bye week recently (4-1 last five). The ‘under’ has gone 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair.

Green Bay at Philadelphia: The Packers have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and the defense (38.3 PPG) has been embarrassed during this span. I’d expect Philadelphia’s offense to have success as well but the outcome of this total will come down to the Green Bay offense against the Philadelphia defense. All the numbers point to the Birds in that matchup, who are allowing a league-best 9.5 PPG at home this season and they shut down some quality quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan too. They also have run up 26 sacks in 10 games and 15 of those have come at home, which is tops in the NFL. Even though the above “road system” says ‘over’ in this matchup, I’d tread lightly based on the matchup.

Fearless Predictions

Another profitable weekend ($190) in Week 11 was quickly erased on Thanksgiving ($320) and the overall bankroll is barely staying in the black ($10). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Seattle-Tampa Bay 45

Best Under: Tennessee-Chicago 42

Best Team Total: Over 19 ½ Tampa Bay

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 51 Tennessee-Chicago
Over 41 ½ Arizona-Atlanta
Under 58 ½ Carolina-Oakland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 12

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 12

1) Tennessee -4.5 (514)
2) Atlanta -4 (480)
3) Washington +7 (405) WIN
4) Baltimore +4 (387)
5) Kansas City +3.5 (380)

SuperContest Week 12 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Minnesota (+2.5) 235 Detroit (-2.5) 265
Washington (+7) 405 Dallas (-7) 153
Pittsburgh (-8) 306 Indianapolis (+8) 94
San Diego (-1.5) 356 Houston (+1.5) 333
Tennessee (-4.5) 514 Chicago (+4.5) 127
Jacksonville (+7.5) 178 Buffalo (-7.5) 221
Cincinnati (+4) 197 Baltimore (-4) 387
Arizona ( +4) 280 Atlanta (-4) 480
San Francisco (+7.5) 198 Miami (-7.5) 208
Los Angeles (+7) 181 New Orleans (-7) 319
N.Y. Giants (-7) 344 Cleveland (+7) 220
Seattle (-6) 337 Tampa Bay (+6) 272
Carolina (+3) 347 Oakland (-3) 379
Kansas City (+3.5) 380 Denver (-3.5) 260
New England (-8) 288 N.Y. Jets (+8) 264
Green Bay (+4) 204 Philadelphia (-4) 303


Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%
11 3-2 16-33-1 33%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Chargers (4-6) at Texans (6-4)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- What the Houston Texans have dealt with since Monday night has been a lingering feeling throughout this disappointing season for the San Diego Chargers.

On the cusp of a surprising victory over the AFC West-leading Oakland Raiders, the Texans (6-4) coughed up a seven-point lead with a fourth-quarter collapse and fell 27-20 in Mexico City. Instead of establishing a two-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South with a head-to-head victory in hand, the Texans dropped to 4-3 in the AFC and set the stage for a dogfight for the division title down the stretch.

"It's a must that we focus strictly on San Diego," Texans head coach Bill O'Brien said. "If you start looking ahead to whatever is the next game or the game after that, you know, they're all important. When you only have, whatever it is, six games, five games left, every single one is important.

"The division obviously is very, very important, but AFC games are important. Any game is important. I think these guys came into the building today with great focus, energy and they're very focused on the Chargers."

Defensively, the Texans remain an upper echelon team, ranking 12th in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. But the manner in which they surrendered the lead to Oakland continued a recent trend that warrants attention and a reversal.

After matching a Texans field goal with a 75-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Jamize Olawale, the Raiders covered 85 yards in five plays in posting the winning score, a Carr to Amari Cooper 35-yard pass. That touchdown followed a fourth-down stand by the Raiders' defense. When the Texans failed to match, it marked their fourth consecutive game without a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Since their spirited fourth-quarter rally to beat the Colts on Oct. 16, the Texans have been outscored 41-9 in the fourth quarter of their last four games. Given the ongoing struggles of the offense, it's unjust to saddle the Texans' defense with the blame for their late-game struggles, but what is true is that Houston has wavered when those tense moments arrive and a tenuous lead is on the line.

"We got beat. That's all I can say," Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel said. "You saw the game. They made plays. We didn't make the plays, so we lost the game. The only thing that we can do now is we cannot cry over spilled milk. What we have to do is we have to move forward and try to play a better game versus the Chargers."

The Chargers (4-6) have managed the frustration of having a losing record despite a positive point differential. All six of their losses have come by one score, with a spate of injuries and their own issues protecting leads undermining success.

Three games behind the Broncos and Chiefs in the AFC West, the Chargers aren't in a position to dwell too long on what ails Houston. Injuries have undercut the Texans, too, but they've held the line defensively in spite of the losses.

"I think that's what the good coaches do in this business," Chargers coach Mike McCoy said of Houston surviving the loss of All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt. "You take advantage of your personnel. There's little adjustments you make from week to week. The foundation has been laid a long time ago in his system and then you go into the game planning process of doing certain things. You educate your players and players go out and play. It's not shocking at all the way they are playing without those players either."

That Houston has established quality depth in its secondary has helped offset the injuries up front. Watt is irreplaceable, but the Texans have rotated capable defensive backs liberally and to success, doing so with veteran cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson serving as anchors in the secondary.

"Yeah, it's a good group," Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said. "Obviously, those two corners are veteran corners that have been together for a long time now, and really just a solid secondary all the way around.

"There's a lot of guys in the game, a lot of DBs play, especially third-down situations, there's a lot of DBs on the field and they make it tough on you. There's not a lot of easy completions out there."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Titans (5-6) at Bears (2-8)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray knows that he and his teammates have some work to do if they want to reach the playoffs.

At 5-6, the Titans might have to run the table to earn their first postseason berth since 2008.

"You want to stack up as many wins as you can, especially in our position," Murray said. "We're in a scenario now where we have a chance to do that. We're a good football team, and we're going to keep fighting."

This week, the Titans will take their fight north as they square off against the Chicago Bears (2-8). Tennessee will try to climb back to .500 before heading into a bye in Week 13.

Meanwhile, Chicago is looking for anything positive to build upon in what has become a nightmare season. The Bears have lost two games in a row and five of their last six as they prepare for what likely will be quarterback Matt Barkley's first NFL start in place of an injured Jay Cutler.

The game will mark the first appearance at Soldier Field for Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota. The 23-year-old Hawaiian has enjoyed a breakout season with 2,772 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 100.3 passer rating. He needs 228 passing yards to become the first 3,000-yard passer for Tennessee since Matt Hasselbeck in 2011.

Mariota also will try to improve upon his franchise record by throwing for multiple touchdowns in his eighth consecutive game. He reached seven straight games last week to move past Hall of Famer Warren Moon, who had six multiple-touchdown games in a row in 1987.

The second-year quarterback credited his teammates in the huddle for his success. He said his receiving corps, which includes wide receiver Rishard Matthews and tight end Delanie Walker, provided him with confidence on every play, including deep routes downfield.

"They make it easy on me," Mariota told reporters at the Titans' practice facility this week. "If I get it to a spot, I know those guys will go get it."

Murray also has proved to be dependable in his first season with the Titans. The 28 year old is second in the NFL with 1,000 rushing yards and has punched in 11 touchdowns (eight rushing, three receiving). He has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games.

The duo of Mariota and Murray could challenge a Bears defense that is reeling from another round of injuries and suspensions. Rookie linebacker Leonard Floyd -- Chicago's first-round pick in 2016 -- will miss the game because of a concussion after he was carted off the field last week. The team's leading tackler, linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also will be out after he received a four-game suspension this week for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

Freeman's absence in the middle of the defense will create more playing time for rookie linebacker Nick Kwiatkowski, a fourth-round pick out of West Virginia.

On offense, the Bears appear to be in even worse shape. Cutler injured his right shoulder last week against the New York Giants and likely will be sidelined for at least one game, if not more. The Bears already are without Pro-Bowl guard Kyle Long (ankle) and Pro-Bowl wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who will serve the second game of a four-game suspension for PED use.

Bears head coach John Fox said Wednesday that Barkley would start at quarterback if Cutler cannot play. David Fales, a San Jose State product who rejoined the team this week, would be the No. 2 option.

Barkley, 26, is four years removed from his playing days with the USC Trojans. He has appeared in five NFL games as a backup, throwing for zero touchdowns and six interceptions.

Fox said the numbers did not tell the entire story. He said he liked Barkley's poise Oct. 20 against Green Bay as he came off the bench to complete 6-of-15 passes for 81 yards and two interceptions.

"These guys are on the team for a reason," Fox said. "Matt has been in big spots. He won't blink. He didn't blink -- not being very experienced with us -- in Lambeau.

"It's not going to be too big for him. He's been in big games. He understands what it is to be a good teammate, and he'll do everything he can to be as prepared as he can."

Barkley will have plenty for which to prepare.

Tennessee boasts a dynamic pass rush that includes linebackers Brian Orakpo (nine sacks) and Derrick Morgan (eight sacks). Both players are vying to become the first Titans defender with double-digit sacks in a season since Jurrell Casey registered 10.5 sacks in 2013.

Overall, the Titans rank No. 8 in the NFL in scoring (25.5 points per game), but are No. 23 in the league with an average of 25 points allowed. The Bears rank second-to-last in scoring (15.7 points per game) and are No. 19 in the league with an average of 23.7 points allowed.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jaguars (2-8) at Bills (5-5)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

It has been nearly two years since Doug Marrone opted out of coaching the Buffalo Bills. Now the offensive line and assistant head coach in Jacksonville, Marrone makes his return to Western New York on Sunday when the Jaguars face the Bills at New Era Field.

"I hope it's a miserable experience," current Bills head coach Rex Ryan said. "We want to win, man. Our fans, this is as loyal a fan base as there is, so we want to create that miserable day for people, and the fans are a big part of it."

This has been a miserable season for the Jaguars (2-8), who have lost five straight and will miss the postseason for the ninth straight year.

"Same old story, same old script, every week," cornerback Jalen Ramsey said after last week's 26-19 loss to Denver. "It's been frustrating, but it's really getting extremely frustrating."

That frustration has been accompanied by questions about the job security of head coach Gus Bradley, whose 14-44 record in three-plus seasons is the second-worst winning percentage (.241) by any coach in NFL history.

Bradley told the Buffalo media on a conference call this week that he only hears criticism of his performance, "when guys like you bring it up."

Ryan, like Marrone before him, has faced criticism in Buffalo, despite winning as many games as he has lost since the start of last season. The Bills (5-5) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-12 win in Cincinnati last Sunday, keeping alive their hopes of ending their 16-season playoff drought, the longest in the NFL.

Buffalo can improve to 6-5 for just the second time since 2009 and third time since 2001.

"We need this game in the worst way," Ryan said. "This game is far too important for us not to put everything into it, and the preparations got to be tight."

The Bills offense has been depleted by injuries but could be bolstered soon by the return of star wideout Sammy Watkins, who has missed the last seven games due to pain in his surgically-repaired foot. Watkins remains on injured reserve, but Ryan is hopeful he can play Sunday.

"If I'm healthy enough to play and they think I'm healthy, then I'm going to be out there," Watkins said. "I'm not going to go out there unhealthy."

Buffalo will be without its other starting receiver, Robert Woods (knee), while running back LeSean McCoy (thumb) is expected to play after undergoing surgery on Sunday night.

On defense, Pro Bowl lineman Marcell Dareus appears to be healthy -- and rounding into football shape -- after missing eight of the first nine games due to suspension and injuries to his hamstring and groin.

Emotionally, the Bills are still healing from a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London last season.

"It left a bad taste in our mouth," guard Richie Incognito said. "We definitely aren't overlooking them."

Ryan called the Jaguars, "the best two-win team I've ever seen."

The Jaguars do have the No. 7 ranked defense but have the least takeaways (five) and the most giveaways (22). Quarterback Blake Bortles has been intercepted in eight of 10 games and is tied with the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick for the most interceptions in the league (13).

Bortles is dealing with a sprained right throwing shoulder but doesn't expect that to keep him out of the lineup. "I'll be ready to go Sunday," he said.

Running back T.J. Yeldon (ankle) is less likely to play, and the Jaguars could also be without defensive end Jared Odrick (shoulder), cornerback Aaron Colvin (concussion), linebacker Dan Skuta (back) and Abry Jones (ankle). Tight end Mercedes Lewis (calf) and left guard Patrick Omameh (foot) were placed on injured reserve this week.

A winning record may not be possible, but the Jaguars are still hoping to string together wins down the stretch.

"There is no sense in folding up shop and getting ready for next year," Bortles said. "We've got six more games to play and a chance to go 8-8. ... I think the guys are excited about the opportunity. Not excited about where we're at, but excited to have six more chances."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bengals (3-6) at Ravens (5-5)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without two of their top playmakers on Sunday against the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens, who are looking to snap a five-game losing streak in this divisional series.

Receiver A.J. Green (hamstring) and running back Giovani Bernard (knee) were injured in last Sunday's 16-12 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Despite those injuries, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh expects another hard-fought game against a rival he has not beaten since Nov. 10, 2013.

"We respect the Bengals, obviously," Harbaugh said. "We have not beat them for a while. It is a big game for us. It is a big challenge for us. They have always been tough for us as long as I have been here. I'm sure (they were tough) before that as well. It is a rivalry game, a division game."

Baltimore (5-5) has struggled to contain Green throughout his career. In eight games against the Ravens, Green has caught 41 passes for 726 yards with six touchdowns. Cincinnati has won five of those eight contests.

The Ravens have a revamped defense that is second in the NFL, allowing 295.1 yards per game.

Baltimore could get another boost with the return of linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who has not played since Oct. 9 against the Redskins because of a foot injury.

While the Ravens are looking to tighten their grip on first place in the division, Cincinnati (3-6-1) is simply trying to salvage its season. After managing a 27-27 tie against the Washington Redskins in London on Oct. 30, the Bengals lost their next two games by a combined five points.

"We haven't won close games," Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis said. "We've had opportunities in the fourth quarter of football games. We've had leads. We've had opportunities, and we haven't closed the games out."

With Green out of the lineup. Baltimore can turn its focus to shutting down Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert, who missed the first six games of the season with an ankle injury. Rookie wide receiver Tyler Boyd also will likely get more targets.

The onus will be on Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton to get them the ball while facing an aggressive Ravens defense that has 23 sacks and 11 interceptions through 10 games.

"I feel like it is your typical Baltimore defense," Dalton said. "They are big up front, they do a really good job against the run, and they get you in third-and-long situations, so they are good on third down. That is the style, and that is the way I know Baltimore has been for a long time."

The Ravens and Bengals have a similar offense. Both teams are able to move the ball, but struggle finding the end zone. Baltimore and Cincinnati are each averaging 19.9 points per game, tied for 25th in the league.

The Bengals, however, are just 1-4 on the road this season.

"We have a lot of football ahead, and we have a big football game for us come Sunday in Baltimore," Lewis said.

One of the keys for Baltimore will be establishing an effective running game to wear down the Bengals. Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon have gotten better as the season progressed. However, penalties and late-game deficits has limited their opportunities.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who has also played better over the past three weeks, will also look to take some shots downfield to prevent Cincinnati from crowding the box.

"We are trying to get everybody involved as much as we can," Flacco said. "When you are short on numbers, you obviously can't do as much as you would like to. I do not know if that has had a direct impact on it, but it may have affected it a little bit."

Harbaugh is 7-9 all-time against the Bengals. The Ravens have not won an AFC North title since 2012. Cincinnati has won two of the past three division crowns. The importance of this game is not lost on Harbaugh or his players.

"We want to start fast, but mainly, we just want to play good football - complementary football, winning football, in all three phases and playing together," Ravens safety Eric Weddle said. "If we can do that, we'll have a good shot."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinals (4-5) at Falcons (6-4)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

One team is hoping to prevent a second-half slide like the one that derailed its season a year ago.

The other is just trying to keep its head above water, knowing that one more loss could effectively end any chance it has left of making the playoffs for a third straight year.

That and more are on the line Sunday at the Georgia Dome when the Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) visit the Atlanta Falcons (6-4) in a pivotal NFC battle.

This marks the seventh time in the past 11 years that the teams met, with each splitting the previous six meetings.

It's a chance for the Falcons to extend their slim lead in the NFC South over the Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers. It's a chance for the Cardinals to possibly salvage their season -- at least for another week.

Asked if his team had a sense of urgency, Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians, who had to spend a night in the hospital because of chest pains following his team's latest loss -- a 26-20 defeat at Minnesota -- just scowled.

"Oh yeah," he said. "If you don't have one right now you don't belong in the business, and you damn sure don't belong in this locker room."

The Cardinals have been searching for answers all season after a 13-3 regular season a year ago in which the offense set multiple franchise records and quarterback Carson Palmer was in the conversation for MVP candidacy upon setting several career firsts.

Palmer and the offense, however, went missing in 2016 and other than second-year running back David Johnson, who ranks third in the league in rushing with 863 yards, there hasn't been any of the same consistency Arians and the Cardinals are used to enjoying.

Palmer said there's only one thing on the team's mind as it gets ready for the Falcons.

"To win one game," he said. "Can't worry about seeding or standings or division records; nothing matters other than this game. As leaders, as the older guys in the locker room, you just keep everybody's focus on one day at a time, finishing today. We've got the practice part done. We have a lot of meetings and a lot of tape to watch. You finish day after day after day, and that's the mindset that we have."

As for the Falcons, they still have last season on their mind. Atlanta began 6-1, but scuffled their way to a 2-7 finish over their last nine games to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs for the third straight season.

Another second-half collapse wouldn't only be punishing, it could lead to more changes once again for a franchise that hasn't been able to finish what it started. Head coach Dan Quinn acknowledged that still resonates across the organization, but that last season's second-half fail could propel the Falcons moving forward.

"Well, we certainly hope so," Quinn said. "The scars that you get when you finish poorly, they definitely leave a mark. We're a way different team than our 2015 team -- our mental toughness, our resilience; we're just tighter, we're better, we're more complete in that way.

"That's, I think, the biggest difference. Although we didn't finish all of them like we'd like to this year, I would say we're quite a bit different outfit than we were at the end of 2015."

Atlanta boasts one of the league's best offenses. It's ranked first in points per game (32.0), yards per play (6.7), passing yards per play (8.9) and touchdowns scored (36). Overall, the offense is ranked third, averaging 416.6 yards per game.

Quarterback Matt Ryan is enjoying one of his finest season to date, ranking second in passing yards (3,247), third in passing touchdowns (24) and fourth in completion percentage (68.2). His favorite target, wide receiver Julio Jones, leads the league in receiving yards (1,105) and has been difficult for everyone to slow down.

Jones had 10 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown in his last game against the Cardinals two years ago, torching Arizona's All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson. That was the season in which Peterson, however, was dealing with diabetes and it had to be diagnosed, which led to his worst season in the pros.

Peterson is a completely different player now, however, and Jones can see that on film.

"He dropped that weight, looks like he's in better shape," Jones said. "He's always a good athlete, a guy who can make plays. He can pretty much do a lot of great things."

Peterson will shadow Jones throughout the game, something other teams have tried and failed to do against Jones this season.

"Teams have been trying to do that, but they've been playing a lot of two-man while they were doing it," Jones said. "They'll take their OK corner and put him over me and then just have safety help, and try to put the better corner on the other side, try to let him lock that side down. Pat P, it's just usually one-on-one. It's always been great matchups between us."

The Cardinals get Tyrann Mathieu, their playmaking safety, back this week after the Honey Badger missed the last two games because of a shoulder subluxation. His addition could make the league's top-ranked defense, which is allowing a league-low 287.4 total yards per game as well as the fewest passing yards per game (190.2), that much more dangerous.

As good as Arizona's defense has been, Mathieu said it hasn't been good enough.

"I think we could play better," he said. "Every game, there's like three or four plays where we're just giving up touchdowns or giving up big plays. We've got to continue to create turnovers, we've got to create more turnovers, we've got to find a way to score and shorten the field for our offense."

Mathieu said the Cardinals will have their hands full with Ryan, Jones and Atlanta's running back tandem of Davonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who is finally healthy.

"They're a dominating offense, obviously," he said. "Matt Ryan is playing tremendous right now, Julio, it goes without saying, and they've got two running backs that are definitely going to try and hurt us in the run and the pass game, so our front has to play well, our linebackers have to play well and then on the back end, we've got to do a good of containing Julio."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: 49ers (1-9) at Dolphins (6-4)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Miami Dolphins turned their season around with a five-game winning streak and are in the mix for an AFC playoff berth.

The San Francisco 49ers haven't registered a victory since Sept. 12 and are hoping to avoid a new low in franchise futility.

It's a tale of two teams heading in different directions as San Francisco attempts to sidestep a franchise-record 10th consecutive defeat when it visits the streaking Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX).

The 49ers (1-9) were victorious in Chip Kelly's debut as coach but the season quickly unraveled. San Francisco gave up a combined 83 points over its next two games and allowed an average of 34.8 points during the nine-game skid.

The run of defeats matches the 1978 49ers for the club's worst stretch of single-season setbacks. But quarterback Colin Kaepernick is putting on the brave face and citing that all is not lost.

"We still have an opportunity to win games," Kaepernick said. "That's what we have to stay focused on and take it one week at a time. There is that feeling out there that we're not going to be in the playoffs, but we still have an opportunity to do some good things and build on for next year."

Miami (6-4) feared its own dreadful campaign when it opened the season with four defeats in five games under first-year coach Adam Gase.

The Dolphins then tinkered with the offense and began feeding the football to second-year running back Jay Ajayi. They haven't lost since and stand one game behind the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs for the final AFC wild-card spots.

Ajayi rushed for 685 yards during the winning streak -- including topping 200 yards in consecutive games -- and suddenly ranks tied for sixth in the NFL with 802 yards.

The emerging star nicknamed the "J-Train" could be in for another big game Sunday as San Francisco ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense at 179.5 yards per game.

Perhaps the bigger element in terms of slowing down Ajayi might be the health of his own offensive line.

Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey (hip) will miss the game and Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert (wrist) is doubtful. Standout rookie guard Laremy Tunsil (shoulder) missed the second half of last Sunday's 14-10 victory over the Los Angeles Rams and is listed as questionable.

Meanwhile, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has adapted to Gase's run-based approach and has thrown for six touchdowns against one interception during the winning streak.

"His offense is really fun to play in, does a lot of things to help a quarterback," Tannehill said on a conference call. "Just his knowledge -- being around all the quarterbacks he has -- he's learned so much and can help you in so many ways."

Interestingly, Gase was close to a deal to become the 49ers coach following the 2014 season but San Francisco decided to hire Jim Tomsula.

Tomsula went 5-11 in one season before being fired while Gase became the offensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears. He cites the interview experience with the 49ers as a big help toward landing the Miami gig this past winter.

"It made it so much easier for myself when I went through that next round the year afterwards to know what to expect and understand the process of that second interview," Gase said on a conference call.

Instead, it is Kelly dealing with San Francisco's situation and another hit occurred this week when free safety Eric Reid underwent season-ending surgery for a torn bicep suffered in Sunday's 30-17 loss to the New England Patriots.

Reid (81 tackles) will be replaced by second-year pro Jaquiski Tartt on the unit that ranks last in the NFL in both scoring defense (31.3) and total defense (431.3 yards per game).

The 49ers also rank near the bottom of the league in total offense (30th at 309.6) while averaging 20.4 points per game. Kelly committed toward Kaepernick as the starting quarterback for the rest of this season and promises that his squad hasn't quit.

"They practice well, they want to win, they're engaged," Kelly said. "They're not excited about where we are now in terms of what we've done win-loss wise. We've got to go back to work. That's the only thing you can do in this situation."

Miami defensive end Cameron Wake, who has a team-leading 7 1/2 sacks, had a big outing in 2012 when the Dolphins and 49ers last met. Wake recorded three sacks and a forced fumble but San Francisco prevailed 27-13.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rams (4-6) at Saints (4-6)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- During the New Orleans Saints' magical run to the Super Bowl XLIV title in February 2010, Drew Brees saw every day what a Gregg Williams defense could do to an offense. It was a Saints' defense Brees faced daily in practice.

The stakes on Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome will be a bit different as the 4-6 Saints attempt to make yet another climb toward .500 against the 4-6 Los Angeles Rams.

After climbing to 4-4 and putting themselves back in the NFC playoff picture following an 0-3 start, the Saints have dropped their last two games in large part because of atrocious special teams play.

New Orleans lost 25-23 to the Denver Broncos two weeks ago when Wil Lutz's potential game-winning PAT was blocked and returned 84 yards for the winning two points. Then, last week against Carolina, a Lutz field goal was blocked, leading to a late first-half touchdown -- and a 10-point turnaround -- in a 23-20 loss to the Panthers.

So when Brees faces Williams' defense on Sunday, he knows he will be in for a challenge. Williams, after all, was the architect of a ball-hawking Super Bowl defense in New Orleans that forced 39 turnovers in 2009.

It was also the defense that, because of Bountygate, got head coach Sean Payton and Williams suspended for a year. The NFL ruled the Saints' defense operated a cash-for-big-hits scheme, which led to Payton's 2012 suspension.

Brees knows that the Rams, led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald and inside linebacker Alec Ogletree, are relentless in their pursuit.

"I know what I see on film," Brees said of the Rams defense that is allowing just 18.7 points per game. "I know that the things he has done in the past are part of his scheme. I know that he's a very good defensive coach, and I know he's going to have some things for us that we haven't seen. My philosophy going into every game is always to expect the unexpected."

Payton called Donald a rare talent. In 10 games, Donald has 31 tackles, five sacks, three passes defended and a forced fumble. Donald has collected 20 sacks since 2014.

"He might be one of the most talented interior guys there is," Payton said. "(It's) just his energy, his motor and his ability, both in the run game and the pass game to be extremely disruptive. (He's) a guy you have to plan for in both phases. You know he's going to make some plays. You hope to contain him as much as you can."

The Saints are averaging 28.5 points per game, and their defense has played more solidly in the last month. But special teams gaffes have been so bad -- the Saints have had three kicks blocked and two others deflected -- that Payton took the unusual step of hiring Kevin O'Dea, formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucs, as a special teams coaching assistant, working especially with the snapper, holder and kicker.

"We're looking to fortify the troops, not change them right now," Payton said. (O'Dea) comes with expertise in developing and training kickers."

Rams rookie Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, will make his second NFL start. In the Rams' 14-10 loss to Miami last week, Goff completed 17 of 31 passes for 134 yards and ran four times for 11 yards. It will be his first road start.

"It will be loud, that's about it," Goff said. "I think (last week's start) helped. There were a lot of things I learned, good and bad stuff. ... We still have a chance to make a run here, and it's not too late. We can do some special things if we put it together."

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher said he realizes his defense will have to continue its stellar play to give Los Angeles a chance.

"We play hard, we're physical, and if you look at the points allowed and things like that, we've been doing a respectable job," Fisher said. "But when we have an offense that's struggling, the defense has to do better. And when you lose a 14-10 game and get one turnover and have hands on three balls, you have to catch one of them."

Mark Ingram was listed as questionable after going through the NFL concussion protocol last week, but he is likely to play.

"I think it's encouraging with him, and I think I've said that all along," Payton said.

Saints left tackle Terron Armstead is questionable with a knee injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Giants (7-3) at Browns (0-11)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The season is getting real exciting for one team while the end of the line is on the horizon for another.

The New York Giants at 7-3 are looking for their sixth straight victory and are steaming full speed ahead for the postseason.

The 0-11 Cleveland ship is springing leaks and all the Browns can hope for is a life preserver to stay afloat until they can sail off into the sunset and their own postseason of preparing for next year.

When the Giants travel to Cleveland for a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff, it will be the 49th time the two teams have met in the regular season. The Browns hold a 26-20-2 edge.

Last week, New York might have underestimated the Chicago Bears. But quarterback Eli Manning rescued the Giants by throwing two touchdown passes in the third quarter to rally his team over Chicago -- another of the NFL's bottom-dwellers.

Could the Giants have been looking ahead? Doubtful. And they won't take the Browns lightly after the close call with Chicago.

The Browns lost 24-9 to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Quarterback Josh McCown took over for rookie Cody Kessler, who was knocked out of a game for the third time this season. McCown will start Sunday. On Wednesday, the Browns designated quarterback Robert Griffin III to return from injured reserve.

Griffin practiced Wednesday but has not been cleared to play. He was the starter in Game 1, but broke a bone in his left shoulder.

And for the first time, frustration in the Browns' locker room boiled over with perhaps the team's best two players speaking up.

Terrelle Pryor Sr., the former quarterback who has had a breakout season, called out the offensive line after Kessler and McCown were sacked eight times by the Steelers.

"Somebody's got to say it so I will," Pryor said. "I'm tired of our quarterbacks getting hit. This is (baloney). They can't keep getting hit like that. ... Whoever's given up their blocks, they need to stop it."

Left tackle and future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas also criticized the front office for letting center Alex Mack (Atlanta Falcons) and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (Kansas City Chiefs) leave through free agency.

"Well, we lost a couple really good players, I think the best at their position," Thomas said. "But that was our strategy in the offseason. That's what we decided to do.

"You've got to lie in the bed that you've made, and I don't make the decisions on who comes and goes. So that's not something that I can concern myself with."

Just another complication for Browns first-year coach Hue Jackson.

He said he wished his players wouldn't voice frustrations to reporters, but in a roundabout said Pryor and Thomas, who has not missed a snap in his nine-year career, had earned some cache to speak out.

"They want to win," Jackson said. "It's all coming from a good place.

"These guys work extremely hard. They come in this building every day and they're in here working their tails off with the expectation to go out and win and play well."

While Jackson and the Browns are trying to figure out how to survive, New York counterpart Ben McAdoo is pushing all the right buttons in his first season, but he knows there's work to be done.

"We haven't accomplished anything yet," McAdoo said. "The highs are high and the lows are low and you're going have to put out three dumpster fires a day. Other than that, you need to focus on your preparation and get ready for the next opponent."

McAdoo embraces away games and relishes time his squad can spend on the road.

"Anytime you get a chance to get on the road and bond and spend some time together, some quality time together that way, your team has a chance to grow and get closer," he said.

And the Giants have done just that, especially the defense.

The Giants' defense has eight picks and 14 sacks in their last eight games. Landon Collins is headed to the Pro Bowl (80 tackles, three sacks and five interceptions) and defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon are playing at a high level.

Pierre-Paul did show up on Wednesday's injury report with swelling in a knee, which kept him on the sideline.

And for the first time in two years, the Giants compiled back-to-back 100-yard rushing games the past two weeks.

Manning will be licking his chops as he goes against a defense that is 31st in yards (409.5), 22nd against the pass (265.5), 31st against the run (143.9) and 31st in points allowed (29.5).

The Browns rank next to last in sacks with 16.

Yet, Manning is not taking the Browns' defense lightly, pointing to cornerback Joe Haden, who is one of the best at his position.

"He's got great ball skills. When the ball's in the air, he does a great job finding it and catching it," Manning said.

Haden will have his hands full, though, as he most likely will line up opposite of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who was dealing with a jammed finger. After a slow start, Beckham has compiled 819 yards on 59 receptions and scored six touchdowns.

The Browns' other starting corner, Tramon Williams, was limited in practice with a knee injury that sidelined him last week.

These teams have at least one thing in common: neither has scored 30 points this season.

Weather is not expected to be an issue with temperatures along Lake Erie in the 50s. But if Mother Nature does rear her head, Manning will be prepared.

"I think you just have to go with the game plan," he said Wednesday. "We're not going to be able to do everything. Just try and have answers for all their defenses. If we get to Sunday and it is bad conditions, you just deal with it from there."

One of the things the Browns must deal with on their journey to possible infamy is keeping the fan base and staying the course. They have a boatload of draft picks and Jackson is committed.

"I truly believe I'm just the man for the job," he said. "That has not shown, and I respect that and I understand how our fans and all feel, but I'm not running from this. I'm going to run through it, and I'm going to deal with it head on. We are going to fix this."

But how bad is it in Cleveland? The cost of a ticket for the game is about the same as two Happy Meals. That's pretty sad considering the Browns' once proud franchise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Seahawks (7-2) at Buccaneers (5-5)

Date: November 27, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

TAMPA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a tough challenge ahead as they seek their third straight win on Sunday at home against the Seattle Seahawks, and they might have to do so without two of their top three cornerbacks.

Containing quarterback Russell Wilson is plenty difficult at full strength, but the Buccaneers will be without nickel cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah, who begins a four-game suspension, and Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes has a quad injury that sidelined him for much of Sunday's win at Kansas City and is listed as questionable.

Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter said his team has a high respect for Wilson, who has thrown just two interceptions all season in 335 pass attempts.

"Make no mistake: Russell Wilson makes Seattle go," Koetter said Wednesday. "This guy, he's an unbelievable playmaker. Almost impossible to sack him. They've only turned it over six times all year.

"His accuracy with balls, running right, throwing left, running left, throwing right, incredible. If Jameis (Winston) was making some of those throws, we'd be screaming at him."

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said he has been watching Winston since college, and he has been impressed by the confidence he already has in his second NFL season.

"I watched him all the way through college and have always been impressed with his tenacity and his competitiveness and his confidence," Carroll said. "He demonstrates confidence in the way he throws the football and the choices that he makes. He totally believes in himself that he can make the plays, and he does.

"He'll continue to grow in command and awareness and understanding of what's going on. He's going to be a great player."

Winston has made major progress in limiting his turnovers -- after throwing eight interceptions in the Buccaneers' first four games and a 1-3 start, he has thrown just two in the last six games, and the Buccaneers have gone 4-2 to claw back to a .500 record.

Tampa Bay is just one game behind Atlanta for the NFC South lead with six games to play, but their remaining schedule includes not only Seattle but a road game at Dallas three weeks later. The rest, however, are against teams with losing records, with two against New Orleans, a game at San Diego and the season finale at home against struggling Carolina.

Seattle, meanwhile, is battling for home-field advantage in the playoffs, and Koetter said as he looks at the Seahawks, he sees a model of what he'd like the Buccaneers to be.

"When you watch Seattle on film, that's who we want to be," Koetter said. "That's who we want to be like. They've been doing it for a long time and even though they've been to the top, they still play extremely hard.

"We pride ourselves on being a team that plays hard. It's a great example. All our guys have to do is turn on the tape and watch. We're playing a good team and we know it."

The Buccaneers won at Arrowhead Stadium -- where the Chiefs had won 10 straight -- by limiting their mistakes and getting well-timed turnovers.

Kansas City was driving for a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter at the Bucs' 6-yard line when safety Chris Conte intercepted an Alex Smith pass -- he had only three all season going in -- and returning it to near midfield to set up a Buccaneers touchdown.

They'll have to do much the same to beat Seattle, and playing at home has actually been a disadvantage for the Buccaneers, who are 4-1 on the road and 1-4 at Raymond James Stadium.

Seattle has a vulnerability against the run and will be without top safety Earl Thomas. The Seahawks are struggling with injuries at running back, getting starter Thomas Rawls back but with limited depth behind him.

"Every year brings up new obstacles," Wilson said. "And that's the journey that we're on every year. ... I think when you respect the process and respect the journey, great things happen.

"This year, there's been some significant injuries to a lot of the guys, and we've been able to overcome those and still find ways to win."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Panthers (4-6) at Raiders (8-2)

Date: November 27, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

This is a trip that could go a long way to define the season for the Carolina Panthers.

The Oakland Raiders are hoping they're recovered enough from their latest voyage to be able to continue their winning ways.

The teams meet Sunday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

"We're talking about recovering from the trip," Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio said. "It's all about what's next for us and right now it's the Carolina Panthers. ... Busy turning the page to the Carolina Panthers."

The Raiders, who are the leaders in the AFC West, are coming off Monday night's victory against the Houston Texans in Mexico City.

The Panthers have packed up for the long haul. They're staying on the West Coast after this game to take on the Seattle Seahawks the following week.

It shapes up as a crucial time for the reigning NFC champions.

"We're going there for two reasons and two reasons only," Carolina head coach Ron Rivera said, offering a twist on the one-game-at-a-time mantra. "They're both important. Each game has (its) own individual meaning."

Rivera, though, said the focus is clearly on the Raiders as the Panthers (4-6) embark on this trip. They'll practice at San Jose State in between the games.

The Panthers are somewhat wounded, particularly with linebacker Luke Kuechly ruled out after entering the concussion protocol from the Nov. 17 game against New Orleans.

Carolina was fortunate to have extra time to prepare because of that Thursday night game. The injury report grew considerably, especially with defensive end Mario Addison and center Ryan Kalil exiting and also ruled out.

"Hopefully they can come back and we can make a push," Panthers fullback Mike Tolbert said.

The Panthers, who've won three of their past four games, are in a wait-and-see situation regarding the linebacking because Kuechly's normal backup is A.J. Klein, who missed the most recent game because of a concussion.

The Raiders (8-2) appear in much better position, if nothing else they're in a more enviable spot in the standings. But winning the division remains a priority and there's lots of work to be done regarding that mission.

"It still begins with winning the division," Del Rio said. "It's the surest way to get a spot in that playoff tournament."

With accolades and attention starting to fall on the Raiders, they're intent on maintaining the right approach.

"You set goals and you want to reach certain things," quarterback Derek Carr said. "Everybody expects great things and when good things come our way you have to know how to be humble.

"Anytime you have 10 games and you have eight wins, we're thankful for that. If we don't win another one, it's not going to mean anything. Our focus right now is on beating Carolina."

Del Rio, who was the defensive coordinator for the Panthers in 2002, said the Raiders have developed good tendencies during their four-game winning streak. He said there are challenges the team must encounter in the aftermath of the out-of-country trip and dealing with a shortened week of preparation.

The season's foundation is something he's counting on.

"As you have success and build on that and have a reference point to go back on," Del Rio said. "I think our guys have embraced the idea of competing for the full 60 minutes. We've found ways to win, but it has been different ways each week."

While Carr has become a focal point for Oakland's offense, the team has thrived on balance and versatility. That's something the Raiders figure can work to their advantage.

"To know that we can win a football game either way," Carr said. "We can run the football or throw the football. Either way, I'm all for it as long as we keep on winning."

The Panthers have been shoddy in converting scoring chances into touchdowns and quarterback Cam Newton's inconsistency has created concerns. Turnovers and red-zone shortcomings have been glaring at times.

"We will make plays and hopefully we will make enough to win football games," Rivera said.

Rivera has put a positive spin on the trip's potential even though it means facing a pair of divisional leaders in consecutive weeks. From an internal standpoint, there are gains to be made for the Panthers.

"It's an opportunity for those guys to do some bonding," Rivera said. "Hopefully, it will be a good opportunity for our guys."

This will be only the sixth meeting between the Panthers and Raiders, and the first in Oakland since 2008. The Panthers won the 2012 meeting to forge a 3-2 series lead.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Patriots (8-2) at Jets (3-7)

Date: November 27, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

It seems as if everything Tom Brady does these days is some sort of milestone.

This week is certainly no exception.

After proving you can indeed go home again, Brady threw four touchdowns and no interceptions -- the 21st time he has done that -- in his first road game against the San Francisco 49ers, the team he loved growing up.

The win was the 199th overall in his career, tying him with Brett Favre for second place all time -- just one behind the now-retired Peyton Manning. The Patriots are eight-point favorites for Brady to make it 200 this week at the 3-7 New York Jets (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

He threw a touchdown pass to Malcolm Mitchell on Sunday. Mitchell became the 63rd receiver to catch a touchdown pass from Brady -- now second only to Vinny Testaverde's 70.

There's more.

On Wednesday, he was named AFC offensive player of the week for the 27th time, tying Manning for the all-time lead there.

"Congrats to Tom. He's a great player," receiver Danny Amendola said. "No question, he's our leader and we love playing for him."

However, Brady (knee) did miss consecutive practices due to soreness. He returned on Friday and New England listed him as questionable on the injury report.

Brady needs just 57 yards Sunday to become the fifth quarterback in history to throw for 60,000.

Brady has completed 70.4 percent of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and one interception, in the six games since his return from his four-game Deflategate suspension. The Patriots are 5-1 in those six games to sit at 8-2 in pursuit of their fifth Super Bowl title.

While Brady is as sure as it gets for the Patriots, the Jets come into this game as losers of six of their last seven. Last week, they tried Bryce Petty, but veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at the helm this week after a bye.

"He's healthy, he's been our starter," Jets coach Todd Bowles said. "I don't see anything that could change that right now."

With Jets fans again looking toward the future, Bowles made a statement by going back to the veteran over the youngster.

"I don't think anything of that argument," he said of the future. "We take it week by week. We'll try to get four (wins). If we get four, we'll try to get five and we'll go from there. I don't give away jobs. You have to take the job."

Fitzpatrick has thrown eight touchdown passes and 13 interceptions this season.

The Patriots are more than familiar with Fitzpatrick, knowing he's a veteran who can beat you in different ways.

"I played him before. I know this year the record hasn't showed it, but this is a guy that last year won 10 games for them," defensive end Chris Long said. "He is a franchise quarterback and he is a guy that can hurt you with his arm and his legs and he's creative, he's tough, I've even seen him go downfield and block on some extended run plays.

"He's not afraid to get hit, so he's a guy we definitely have a lot of respect for."

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said, "He's a dangerous player, very smart, has control of the offense, has the ability to get into plays that he likes. They use their receivers in the running game on look-passes, things like that.

"He's tough. You see him scrambling for extra yards, diving forward, blocking on running plays if the runner reverses his field and things like that. He's a fearless player. He's tough, very competitive, and you're right, he's played very well against us whether it was in Buffalo or with the Jets, so we have a lot of respect for him."

While the Jets are having problems all over the field, New England is trying to establish some identity on defense. They sacked Colin Kaepernick five times -- all in the first half -- last week, but that gave them just 21 for the season. They have turned the opposition over just seven times, with no turnovers in the last three games.

The Jets have coughed the ball up 20 times, second most in the NFL, so if the Patriots are going to get turnovers you'd figure playing two of the next six games against the Jets would be their chance.

Asked if turnovers can be just a matter of bounces, Long said, "Sometimes that's all it is. We have to continue to work on the things we need to work on and one of those things is getting turnovers. But a lot of times the ball just darts your way or a tipped pass or a guy will have bad ball security -- it's all being opportunistic sometimes."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Chiefs (7-3) at Broncos (7-3)

Date: November 27, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Ahead of Sunday's pivotal matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos were treated to a vivid image of their championship past and a fresh reminder of what's at stake as they embark on the closing stretch of the season.

On display in the team's locker room this week, for all the players to see, were the three Lombardi trophies the Broncos have won, including the one from last season, when they defeated the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl.

"It's great to see what you're working towards," said Broncos safety T.J. Ward, a member of last season's title team. "It's great to see it in front of you rather than a picture. It's here in the flesh for guys who didn't get a chance to hold it last year. It's just a reminder. I hope it motivates other players. It's just a good thing to have in the locker room."

Head coach Gary Kubiak thought so to, especially with the Broncos gearing up to face the Chiefs, with whom they are tied for second in the AFC West at 7-3, a game behind the division leading Oakland Raiders.

"It's a new year and a new battle," Kubiak said. "I think this team is really excited: the coaches, the organization, everybody. We're there with six weeks to play. We have a lot of big football games to play in. That's why we do what we do. We're all excited. You can feel it around here."

So can the Chiefs, who are in the thick of the chase for a playoff berth as well. The game between the division rivals, originally scheduled in the afternoon, was flexed to a prime-time matchup.

"I don't think you could make it any bigger or more intense than it already is," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "The way the division has gone to this point, it's already pretty tight.

"This is our first crack at these guys and they're the defending Super Bowl champions. We've been in a lot of battles with these guys over the years and the fact that it got moved to the Sunday night game, it'll be under the lights and we understand that. It'll be fun. I don't think it could be any more intense than it already is."

As it did last season, Denver has leaned on its staunch defense to get the best of opposing teams. But the offense has shown progress in its bid to achieve greater balance in the run and pass games under the direction of quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose seven wins are the second most by a Broncos quarterback in his first nine career starts in team history.

"He hasn't had that much consistency," Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson said. "He's not very tall in the pocket, but somehow he is still making all the throws he needs to make. So hats off to that. You'd think a shorter guy like him -- he's not crazy short, but I think he should have some problems seeing back there, and he's pretty comfortable back there. Hopefully, we can make him uncomfortable. That's our plan."

The Broncos, coming off a bye, have had a chance to heal up going into their first meeting of the season with the Chiefs, who were upset last week by Tampa Bay.

Fullback Andy Janovich had the cast protecting a broken hand removed during the bye week, which should help restore him as a receiving threat as well as aid in his lead blocking for the running game and blitz protection on passing downs.

Defensive end Derek Wolfe returned to practice this week after missing the Broncos' win at New Orleans two weeks ago with an elbow injury, and cornerback Aqib Talib, sidelined since Oct. 24 with a lower back problem, also resumed practicing and is expected to be ready to face the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have their share of injuries to contend with, though Johnson is expected to play despite dealing with some soreness in his Achilles tendon.

Both wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (groin) and outside linebacker Dee Ford (hamstring) have been declared out of the game.

Cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) also had some limitations in practice in the days leading up to the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Packers (4-6) at Eagles (5-5)

Date: November 28, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Green Bay Packers started the season, as they always do, with championship aspirations.

The Philadelphia Eagles, after crushing Pittsburgh 34-3 to improve to 3-0, looked like they were emerging as a surprise challenger.

Instead, Monday night's game at Lincoln Financial Field could serve as an elimination game. The Packers have lost four in a row to plunge to 4-6 and 14th place in the NFC playoff race. Even with an upset victory over the Eagles, they would remain two games behind the division-leading Lions after their Thanksgiving Day win over Minnesota.

The Eagles have crashed back to Earth with losses in five of their last seven games. At 5-5, they are in ninth place in the NFC and trail Washington (6-3-1) for the final NFC wild-card spot.

For the Packers, this is unexpected territory as they join New England as the only teams to qualify for the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons.

Head coach Mike McCarthy's confidence, however, hasn't waned.

"We have the right kind of men," he said. "This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome.

"We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to do this week and prepare to go beat Philadelphia."

For the Eagles, their up-and-down play isn't surprising considering rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft, is learning on the job. That doesn't mean there isn't disappointment.

They lost last week at Seattle by 11 points but their other four losses have come by a combined 19 points.

"It's something that we kind of in the back of our minds sort of planned for," first-year head coach Doug Pederson said. "Still, to be 5-5 and to be in the thick of it is a credit to him and the rest of the team and how well they've played. We've had our chances. We've had moments to pull out some of these close games that we've been in. It's just something that it is what it is right now. He's learning. Every rep that he takes, he's learning. It's going to make him a much better quarterback down the road."

If there are big advantages for the Eagles, it's defense and venue. The Eagles rank fourth in the league with 18.6 points allowed per game. They've allowed a total of 38 points in going 4-0 at home.

The Packers, meanwhile, gave up 47 points at Tennessee in Week 10 and 42 more at Washington in Week 11. Green Bay hasn't allowed back-to-back 40-point games since 1953 or four consecutive 30-point games since 1952. The Packers have lost four in a row on the road for the first time since 2008.

Injuries are a factor for both teams.

The Eagles' top running backs, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles, were knocked out of the Seattle game. Sproles (broken rib) is more likely to play than Mathews (knee), Pederson said. Still, it could leave the Eagles' running game in the hands of rookie Wendell Smallwood.

Top cornerback Leodis McKelvin is in the concussion protocol.

The Packers had seven starters out by the end of the Washington game, including both starting cornerbacks and both starting inside linebackers. With the injuries to Jake Ryan (ankle) and Blake Martinez (knee) at inside linebacker, the Packers might be forced to move Clay Matthews back inside, where he played the previous season-and-a-half.

There's a chance the Packers could get back second-year cornerback Damarious Randall, who's missed the past five games following groin surgery, but veteran Sam Shields will spend the rest of the season on injured reserve with a concussion.

Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins and Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota took advantage of that depleted secondary to post passer ratings of more than 145 the last two weeks.

Can Wentz take advantage, too? In his first four games, Wentz had a 103.5 passer rating with seven touchdowns vs. one interception. In the last six games, he's had a passer rating of 72.3 with four touchdowns and six interceptions.

Against Seattle, Wentz completed 51.1 percent of his passes, threw two interceptions and had a passer rating of just 61.2.

"We've just got to be on point. We had a couple mistakes that really hurt us," Wentz said. "Especially when you're facing good teams, you can't have those letdowns. You have to be sharp. You can't have those little mistakes that can really cost you big in the end. I think we're learning that. Unfortunately, we have too many of those every week, even in wins."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 12

The Baltimore Ravens couldn't manage to do enough to keep it within the seven points they were getting at Dallas last week as the Cowboys ATS train keeps on rolling.

That's two straight weeks where my NFL best bets came up short and I believe that poor run ends this week.

The final push towards the playoffs begins this week for many teams across the league, and one of those teams in the thick of a division race is involved in a game where the wrong team appears to be favored.

Best Bet: Houston +1.5

This spread opened up as Houston being -1 or pick'em, but after a national television audience saw them make poor decision after poor decision (punting in the 4th quarter for one) and lose on MNF, all of the early action has come in on the well-rested San Diego Chargers.

NFL teams off a bye week are typically popular plays among the general betting populous, but seeing this much love for the Chargers is a bit surprising. At 4-6 SU and chasing all three divisional rivals for a wildcard spot, San Diego knows that their chances of getting into the playoffs are next to nothing.

Now, Chargers fans would like to view it as they've got plenty of head-to-head matchups left against those same division rivals they are chasing, but this is a team that would be in much better shape had they not blown multiple games late in a variety of ways already.

The most recent of those defeats came in their last contest when QB Phillip Rivers threw a Pick-Six in the final minute of the game to break the tie with Miami, and it was the fifth time this year the Chargers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Now they are going on the road and laying points against a Texans team that is undefeated at home and will be doing everything they can to hold onto their slim lead in the AFC South.

There really is no defending some of the choices Texans HC Bill O'Brien made on MNF, and it's safe to say that Houston got too desperate this offseason when they opened up the bank account to get Brock Osweiler. Yet, this is still a team that is one of the better running teams in the league and when you can control the game with your ground attack, everything else downfield opens up.

For as bad as Houston has been on the road this season, they've been quite good at home and have to view this week's game as a must-win. They've got the Colts and Titans nipping at their heels in the division race, but with Andrew Luck out this week for the Colts (vs. Pittsburgh) and Tennessee in a tough spot laying points in Chicago, a win by Houston this week could open up their lead in the division to two games again.

The Texans will already know the Colts result by the time they hit the field and if Indy does pull off a shocking upset with Scott Tolzien at QB, getting this win over San Diego is even more important.

Not only has Houston been perfect at home straight up, they are 4-0-1 ATS on their own field this year and have a 3-0-1 ATS run going when coming off a loss.

As an organization they've got a 4-1 ATS run going after playing on MNF, and their defense has been much better in recent weeks aside from the few lapses that cause the big plays.

It was those big plays that hurt them vs. Oakland on MNF and if they eliminate those mistakes this week, a 6-0 SU record at home will follow.

Given all the early money that's already come San Diego's way as many view this as a do-or-die game for the Chargers, this line has moved too much in the wrong direction here now.

The Chargers have proven that no lead they've got in the 4th quarter is ever safe this year and I fully expect Houston to pull this game out in the end.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers

Week 11 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 32-34 SU, 29-35-1 ATS

Review: The Rams blew late 10-0 lead to the Dolphins, which was the most disappointing loss of the week. Both Indianapolis and Minnesota cashed at home, but Baltimore and Philadelphia couldn't come through as road underdogs.

Chargers (-2, 46 ½) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

In spite of sitting in last place of the loaded AFC West, San Diego is several plays away from being in the middle of the AFC Wild Card race. The Chargers were off last week, but blew a 10-0 lead in a Week 10 home loss to the Dolphins, 31-24 as Philip Rivers was intercepted four times in the fourth quarter. San Diego is listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as the Chargers have won just once in five road contests coming at Atlanta in overtime in Week 7.

Houston
Record: 6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

Very curious line here as the Texans have yet to lose a game at NRG Stadium this season, going 5-0 at home. Houston returns to the friendly confines following a 27-20 loss to Oakland in Mexico City last Monday night in spite of limiting the Raiders to 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. The good news for the Texans is they have yet to lose back-to-back games this season, posting a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record off a defeat. Houston has never covered against San Diego in five lifetime meetings, while beating the Chargers only once, coming in the 2013 season opener, 31-28 at Qualcomm Stadium.

Best Bet: Houston +2

Bengals at Ravens (-4, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

If things couldn’t get any worse for the struggling Bengals, Cincinnati lose offensive weapons Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green to long-term injuries in last Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Green is obviously a huge blow to this Cincinnati offense as the All-Pro wide receiver ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards with 964 yards as he is out with a hamstring tear. The Bengals have won only once in their last six games with that lone victory coming against the winless Browns, while losing four straight contests away from Paul Brown Stadium.

Baltimore
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Ravens have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, starting 3-0, then losing four straight, followed by a two-game winning streak. Baltimore took a step backwards last Sunday in a 27-17 defeat at Dallas as seven-point underdogs to drop its third consecutive road contest. The Ravens look to sweep the AFC North at home after picking up November home victories over the Steelers and Browns. Baltimore has dropped five straight meetings with Cincinnati, including a 28-24 home setback to the Bengals last season.

Best Bet: Baltimore -4

Cardinals at Falcons (-6, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 4-5-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Cardinals were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl last season, but were blown out in the NFC Championship by the Panthers. Arizona has never really built momentum off that playoff run as the Cardinals are attempting to reach the .500 mark with a win. The Cards outgained the Vikings last Sunday, 290-217, but Minnesota scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in a 30-24 victory. Arizona is 0-4 ATS the last four games, but the Cardinals have not been listed as an underdog of more than 2 ½ points this season.

Atlanta
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons sit atop the NFC South at 6-4 as they return to action off the bye week. Atlanta lost prior to the bye in a 24-15 setback at Philadelphia in its lowest-scoring game of the season. The Falcons have struggled to cash in the favorite role by posting a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record when laying points, while covering only once in the last nine tries as a home favorite under Dan Quinn. All four games played at the Georgia Dome this season have finished OVER the total, while the Falcons have won the last six meetings with the Cardinals at home since 1999.

Best Bet: Arizona +6

Seahawks (-6, 45) at Buccaneers – 4:05 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Seahawks put together a pair of ugly performances to close out October with a tie at Arizona and a loss at New Orleans. However, Seattle has rebounded nicely in November by winning three straight games, including an underdog triumph at New England. The Seahawks have scored at least 26 points in each of the past three wins, including in a 26-15 home victory over the Eagles last Sunday as 6 ½-point favorites. In the Eastern Time Zone this season, Seattle owns a 2-0 SU/ATS record with wins over the Patriots and Jets, while posting victories in six of the past eight games on the east coast since 2014.

Tampa Bay
Record: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Only if the Buccaneers can play as well on the road as they do when they take the field at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay may lead the NFC South. The Bucs improved to 4-1 on the highway following last Sunday’s 19-17 triumph as seven-point underdogs at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has been the polar opposite at home by putting together a dreadful 1-4 record with the lone victory coming over Chicago. In four home losses, the Bucs have allowed at least 27 points, including defeats to the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos, all teams currently with six wins or more. Since the start of 2014, Tampa Bay has compiled a dreadful 3-7 ATS record in the role of a home underdog.

Best Bet: Seattle -6

Panthers at Raiders (-3, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 4-6 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Panthers venture out to the west coast trying to keep up momentum off a 3-1 run the last four games. Carolina held off New Orleans last Thursday, 23-20, but the Panthers failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites as the defending NFC champions played poorly in the fourth quarter for the second straight week. Since blowing out San Francisco in Week 2, Carolina owns a pathetic 1-6-1 ATS record the last eight games, while winning only once in four road contests. However, the Panthers are listed in the underdog role for the first time this season as Carolina put together a 2-0 SU/ATS mark as a ‘dog in 2015.

Oakland
Record: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Raiders have lived up to preseason expectations and then some by winning eight of their first 10 games. Oakland returns to the Black Hole after rallying past Houston last Monday night, 27-20 to pick up its fourth consecutive victory. The Silver and Black has cashed the OVER in all three games against NFC South opponents this season, but the Raiders are 2-5 against NFC foes under Jack Del Rio. In five opportunities as a home favorite since the start of 2015, the Raiders have covered only once, coming against the Broncos in a Week 9 victory.

Best Bet: Carolina +3

Patriots (-7 ½, 46) at Jets – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/5

Following a home loss to Seattle two weeks ago, the Patriots rebounded in a huge way with a 30-17 triumph over San Francisco to cash as 10 ½-point road favorites. Tom Brady tossed four touchdown passes for the second time in three weeks, while New England racked up 444 yards of offense to improve to 5-0 away from Gillette Stadium. Rob Gronkowski will sit for the second consecutive week for New England as the All-Pro tight end is out with a lung injury. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last three trips to Met Life Stadium, including dropping a 26-20 overtime decision last December as 2 ½-point favorites.

New York
Record: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 1000/1

The Jets return from the bye week trying to finish the season on a positive note after putting up only six points against the Rams two weeks ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick returns under center for the Jets after missing the Los Angeles defeat with a knee injury as backup Bryce Petty threw for 163 yards against the Rams. In last December’s overtime victory over New England, Fitzpatrick tossed three touchdown passes, as the New York quarterback threw five touchdowns and wasn’t intercepted once in two matchups against the Patriots.

Best Bet: New York +7 ½