Sunday 11/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Jets are 10-0 ATS (6.25 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 at home after a home game where they threw for less than 200 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-8.09 ppg) since Nov 21, 2004 at home when the total is at least 46 coming off a win.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-8.83 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 coming off a loss where Julio Jones had at least 100 receiving yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 15-0 OU (9.97 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 off a loss where they made at least 5 third downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 off a game as a dog where they forced at least two turnovers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.


Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (5.5, 42)

* The Titans’ offense has made one of the league’s biggest turnarounds from a season ago behind a potent ground attack featuring Murray and Marcus Mariota. The running quarterback also has blossomed as a passer in his second professional season, passing for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions - with multiple scoring tosses in a franchise-record seven consecutive games. The Titans’ defense should have success if it can stop the run and keep pressure on Barkley with a strong pass rush led by linebackers Brian Orakpo (nine sacks) and Derrick Morgan (eight).

* Chicago’s injury woes continue to mount, as Cutler will be joined on the sideline by guard Kyle Long (ankle) while receiver Alshon Jeffery serves the second game of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The Bears’ linebacking corps also is thin, with rookie Leonard Floyd suffering from a concussion and leading tackler Jerrell Freeman beginning his own four-game suspension for PEDs. That’s bad news for a team that relies on its defense to keep it in games and ranks 31st in the league in scoring.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 2-point home dogs and that line has been growing all week, as of Saturday the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been bet down to 41.5.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45)

* Chad Henne received more work in practice for the Jaguars during the week and would get the start should Bortles not be available. The Jaguars lost veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis to a season-ending calf injury against the Lions and running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable with an ankle injury for Jacksonville, which has lost five straight games. The Jaguars limited Detroit to just 14 yards on the ground last week but lost their third straight road game, two of wthem by one possession.

* Should McCoy not go, Mike Gillislie (326 yards, 4 TDs) would get the start and the offense could be further hindered by the absence of their top two receivers. Watkins is available to come off the injured reserve list this week after undergoing foot surgery and was cleared to practice Wednesday while Woods, who leads the Bills this season with 42 catches for 493 yards, is unlikely to play Sunday after suffering a sprained knee last week on a controversial hit by Vontaze Burfict. After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season, Buffalo squeezed by Cincinnati last week to snap its three-game losing streak but the victory was clearly aided by the Bengals' early loss of wide receiver A.J. Green.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened the week as 7-point home favorites against the Jags and that number quickly rose half point to 7.5 and has held all week. The total opened at 45.5 and faded during the week as low as 44, before rebounding to 45.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 40.5)

* Cincinnati already had a void in their receiving corps following the offseason departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but there is no way to replace Green, who had racked up 66 receptions for for 964 yards and fourth touchdowns through the first nine games. Rookie Tyler Boyd, who matched his season high with six catches last week, and journeyman Brandon LaFell will start and, along with tight end Tyler Eifert, serve as quarterback Andy Dalton's top targets. Bernard's loss is another huge blow, leaving Jeremy Hill to handle the rushing duties and taking away the prime pass-catching threat from the backfield. Cincinnati's defense is vulnerable to the run, permitting 123.4 yards per game.

* Veteran Steve Smith Sr., the oldest wideout in the league, continues to turn back the clock after becoming the 14th receiver in league history to reach 1,000 career receptions. Smith, who planned to retire a year ago before sustaining a season-ending injury, hit the milestone with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss. Baltimore needs to mount a consistent running attack with Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon - who had eight and six carries, respectively, in Dallas - to keep the onus off Joe Flacco, who has made at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games. The Ravens are No. 2 in the league with 295.1 yards allowed per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this AFC North battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that number jumped as high as 4.5, before fading back to 3.5 late in the week. As of Saturday the number has settled at 4. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet down to 40.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC North.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 50.5)

* Arizona began the season in a 1-3 hole and can't quite seem to dig its way out as mistakes continue to pile up. "Just taking turns making mistakes, and that's frustrating," Fitzgerald told reporters. "Six games left in the regular season at this point and we have no room for error moving forward. None." Plenty of those mistakes are coming from quarterback Carson Palmer, who recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week.

* Matt Ryan is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,247) and has thrown for 24 touchdowns with five interceptions in the best season of his strong career. Ryan is in line to get more help from the running game with the return of Tevin Coleman, who sat out the last three games with a hamstring injury but looked fast at practice this week. "That's what we were checking to see with Tevin," coach Dan Quinn told reporters. "Would he have the speed to get in and out of his breaks that make him such a unique player? So we saw the speed with him."

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two point to 6 late in the week. The total opened at 50.5 and has risen half point to 51.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (7, 44)

* Jason Pierre-Paul was one of four players who did not participate in practice on Wednesday. The veteran defensive end, who registered 2 1/2 sacks in the win over the Bears, is dealing with a sore knee. Odell Beckham Jr. has made all of his team-leading six touchdown catches over the last six games and has recorded a league-high 31 since 2014.

* Robert Griffin III, who hasn't played since breaking a bone in his shoulder in the season opener against Philadelphia, practiced Wednesday after being designated for return from injured reserve. The 26-year-old Griffin, who has yet to be cleared for contact, will remain on IR for the rest of the season if Cleveland does not activate him within 21 days. Rookie Kevin Hogan, who has completed 14-of-26 passes for 104 yards with two interceptions in three games this season, will serve as McCown's backup on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 7-point road favorites against the winless Browns and were briefly faded down to 6.5 midweek before rising back to 7. The total opened at 44.5 and inched down half point to 44.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Browns last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (1, 46.5)

* Philip Rivers had a roller-coaster afternoon against Miami, as he threw three touchdown passes but was intercepted four times. The trio of scoring tosses gave him 301 for his career, moving him past John Elway for eighth place on the all-time list, while the four picks came within a span of 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. Ronnie Hillman, who led Denver in rushing last season with a career-high 863 yards but was released in September, was claimed off waivers from Minnesota after gaining 50 yards on 18 carries in five games with the Vikings.

* All signs point to a victory for Houston, as the club has won each of its five home games thus far this season while Brock Osweiler is 2-0 lifetime as a starter against San Diego. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has made a touchdown catch in each of his last three home games while rookie wideout Braxton Miller made his first TD reception in last week's loss. Jadeveon Clowney leads all defensive ends and is second overall in the league with 12 tackles for loss.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Texans are 1-point favorites at home. The total opened 47 and was dropped to 46 and held that number the remainder of the week.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Texans are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 games on grass.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 44.5)

* San Francisco already owns the worst defense in the league, giving up 31.3 points and 431.1 yards per game, and continues to be ravaged by season-ending injuries. The latest was to safety Eric Reid, who suffered a biceps tear in last week's loss to New England to join linebacker NaVorro Bowman - the NFL's leading tackler last season - and 2015 first-round draft pick Arik Armstead on the shelf. While speedster Torrey Smith missed his first career game last week, tight end Vance McDonald continues to emerge as one of Colin Kaepernick's trusted receivers with six targets in each of the last four games. Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off one of his best games of the season with 86 yards on 19 carries.

* With the 49ers yielding 179.5 rushing yards per game, logic dictates that Miami feature a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-yard games last month and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. However, the Dolphins could be without three starters along the offensive line as left tackle Branden Albert, first-round draft pick Laremy Tunsil and center Mike Pouncey all are dealing with injuries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense were dreadful for most of last week's victory with nine punts and an interception on the first 10 possessions before he connected on a pair of late TD passes to wideouts Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Miami's run defense ranks 30th at 126.1 yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened as 7.5-home favorites and that has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and been faded down to one full point to 44.5.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games following a ATS win.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7, 45.5)

* Los Angeles started Goff's debut fairly well last week, racing out to a 10-0 lead, but Goff played little part in it. Struggling back Todd Gurley gave the Rams a 7-0 lead with a 24-yard scoring run but he finished with just 76 yards on 20 carries after a strong start and he has not topped 85 yards in a game all season. Goff said he thought things went relatively well in his debut. "Felt good," he said. "We're obviously disappointed with the result there at the end and how things turned out, and how we felt through the whole game and how in control we were."

* Brees has thrown for 300 yards four times on the season and surpassed 400 yards twice to lead the league with 3,277 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. The Saints lost running back Mark Ingram to a head injury in the third quarter and their leading rusher with 575 yards and two touchdowns on the ground remains in concussion protocol. Ranked last in the league the past two seasons, New Orleans' defense has improved steadily this year and it ranks a respectable 18th in the NFL since Week 4, allowing 354.7 yards a game, and it is No. 1 in red-zone defense since Week 7.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Saints as 7-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 7.5 and has held firm all week. The total opened at 45.5 and remains fine with bettors having not moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 10-1 in Rams last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6, 45)

* Russell Wilson battled injuries in October and went three straight games without a touchdown - passing or rushing - to close out the month. Since the calendar turned, Wilson returned to health and has recorded six passing TDs without an interception in his last three games while adding rushing and receiving scores. "I think the quick bursts that he showed when he had to make the decision was really the confidence he demonstrated he's got," coach Pete Carroll told reporters in regard to Wilson's health. "I couldn't be more fired up about that. That's when we're playing ball the way we know how to play. It's a big factor for us."

* Winston steadily is making his way into the conversation about elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he stretched his streak to 26 straight games to begin his career with at least one rushing or passing TD when he hit rookie tight end Alan Cross with a fourth-quarter TD pass in last week's 19-17 win at Kansas City. "Jameis was out of sight today," coach Dirk Koetter told reporters after the triumph. "That's as good of quarterback play of however many years I've been in the league now. Jameis - he was awesome all day. Jameis played a great game." Winston is forming a strong connection with wide receiver Mike Evans, who is third in the NFL with 916 receiving yards and second with eight TD catches.

LINE HISTORY: The lined with the Seahawks 5-point road favorites and that line has expanded to 6. The total opened at 44.5 and has inched up to 45 on Monday and remained there all week.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games in November.
* Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 home games.* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49.5)

* Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Kuechly recorded 14 tackles against the Saints and has registered a league-high 693 since 2012. Center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) was a casualty on the offensive line and, along with Addison, is questionable to face Oakland.

* Two key members of the offense were not full participants in Wednesday's practice as receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray were limited due to ankle injuries. Carr threw his first interception since Oct. 16 on the first play of the second half on Monday, ending his streak of 170 consecutive passes without a pick. The third-year quarterback has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened up as 3.5-home favorites and the was quickly driven down to 3 and that number has held since Wednesday. The total opened a 48 and was up to 50, before fading back to 49.5.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (7.5, 45.5)

* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened the week as 8.5-road favorites in this AFC East battle and that number faded as low as 7, before settling at 7.5. The total opened at 47 and has been inching down all week to 45.5 as of Saturday morning.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings.
* Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Unlike ESPN with Monday Night Football, NBC has the right to flex some games into the prime-time Sunday night slot in the second half of the season. And smartly, the network moved this week's AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Broncos in Denver to that spot. While this game deserves the national spotlight, I was a bit surprised that Patriots-Jets was moved out simply because New England is one of the most popular teams in the NFL and the Jets bring the massive New York market.

I don't really know if NFL players watch football on their day off, but I'd guess at least the Chiefs and Broncos coaches tuned into this past Monday night's game in Mexico between the Texans and the Raiders. Oakland was able to pull out the comeback win and now stands alone atop the AFC West with an 8-2 record. The Raiders could lose Sunday at home to Carolina, but they likely will only be underdogs twice the rest of the regular season: Week 14 in Kansas City and Week 17 (if it means anything) at Denver.

Kansas City and Denver are both 7-3, with the Chiefs the current top AFC wild-card team and the Broncos No. 2. The only club within shouting distance of them at the moment is streaking Miami (6-4). The Dolphins don't play either the Chiefs of Broncos this year. I'd have to say Kansas City's remaining schedule is easier than Denver's. Here they are:

Chiefs -- at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Titans, vs. Broncos, at Chargers

Broncos -- at Jaguars, at Titans, vs. Patriots, at Chiefs, vs. Raiders

Oakland is +100 to win the division with Kansas City at +210 and Denver at +250.

Chiefs at Broncos Betting Story Lines

The biggest upset victim of Week 11 was Kansas City losing 19-17 at home to Tampa Bay, ending the Chiefs' five-game winning streak and only their third loss in the past 20 regular-season games. It was Kansas City's first home loss since last October. In my opinion, that game showed why the Chiefs won't win the AFC championship. And that's the offense. Alex Smith, as I've said before and will again, is a solid game-manager but isn't going to win you a tough road postseason game (no, I don't count last year in Houston). Smith was 24-for-31 for 261 yards with a TD but a costly pick in the end zone vs. Tampa and was totally outplayed by Jameis Winston. The K.C. offense has just 18 TDs on the season.

Maybe things would have been different had top receiver Jeremy Maclin played, but he was out with a groin injury and it's not looking good for him here. Star cornerback Marcus Peters missed the game with a hip injury but will return. Running back Charcandrick West, the No. 2 to Spencer Ware, is looking doubtful as he's in the concussion protocol. Dee Ford, who is tied for the NFL lead with 10 sacks, left the Bucs game with a hamstring injury and his status is in question. You could see more of outside linebacker Justin Houston, the 2014 NFL sack leader, in this game as he made his season debut vs. Tampa off ACL surgery but wasn't a factor.

The Broncos are about as healthy as possible this time of year as they come off their bye week. Perhaps the most interesting thing surrounding that team during the bye were reports that Tony Romo would like to play there next year when he leaves the Cowboys. I could totally see that fit if the Broncos either don't make the playoffs or are one-and-done behind inconsistent first-year starter Trevor Siemian. Romo could be a good one-year bridge to 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch if he's not ready in 2017. Denver has been really struggling to run the ball -- and it was before losing C.J. Anderson likely for the season. So Coach Gary Kubiak said for this game he will rotate Donald Stephenson and Ty Sambrailo at right tackle in the search for a combination that helps boost the ground game. Kubiak added that he'll consider rotating players at other positions up front too other than center Matt Paradis.

Denver entered the break off an incredible 25-23 win in New Orleans, giving up the tying touchdown pass with under two minutes left but then blocking the PAT and returning it for 2 points -- the first time an NFL game was decided in that fashion. The guy who blocked the kick, Justin Simmons, was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his performance. I think what Simmons did in leaping over the Saints center with some help up front will be outlawed this offseason.

Chiefs at Broncos Betting Odds and Trends

Denver is a 3-point favorite (-120) with a tiny total of 39.5. On the moneyline, the Broncos are -170 and the Chiefs +150. On the alternate lines, the Broncos are -3.5 (+105) and -2.5 (-145). Kansas City is 4-6 against the spread (3-2 on road) and 2-8 "over/under" (1-4 on road). Denver is 7-3 ATS (4-1 at home) and 5-5 O/U (3-2 at home).

The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their past four after an ATS loss. They are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine after a win. They are 1-4 ATS in their past five vs. the AFC West. The under is 6-0 in Kansas City's past six overall. The under is 6-1 in Denver's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 7-2-2 in the past 11.

Chiefs at Broncos Betting Prediction

No doubt Kansas City is glad to see Peyton Manning retired as it had dropped seven in a row to Denver. However, in Week 10 last year in the Mile High City the Chiefs ended that skid with a 29-13 victory coming out of their bye. Yes, Manning did start that game but was clearly injured and just 5-for-20 for 35 yards, no TDs, four picks and a rating of 0.00, the worst outing of his career. He did pass Brett Favre on the all-time passing yardage list on his first completion. Brock Osweiler replaced him in the third quarter.

This is the lowest total on the board and it might still drop. And I actually like the under better than the side. No snow in the forecast for Denver on Sunday but it will be cold (around 30) by kickoff. I'll give the 2.5 points simply as the Broncos are home and rested.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC West heats up SNF

Week 12 SNF Betting Preview
Kansas City at Denver

Odds: Denver (-3.5); Total 39.5

A pair of 7-3 SU teams from the AFC West got flexed into SNF this week as the Chiefs and Broncos are looking to keep pace with the Oakland Raiders in the division.

This is the first meeting of two between these two rivals this season and chances are both of those tilts will go a long way in determining playoff positioning in the AFC. So what team comes out on top in round one?

Kansas City had a five-game winning streak snapped last week when they lost 19-17 at home vs. Tampa Bay. The Chiefs were laying a touchdown in that game so the result was disappointing on multiple levels, but it may be a sign of things to come for this team.

KC jumped out to their 7-2 start thanks to an incredible +13 turnover margin and capitalized on all those errors by the opposition on a weekly basis.

The 23 turnovers they've forced have been critical to their success as they are a bottom third team in the league in both offensive yards gained per game and defensive yards allowed per game. Taking advantage of those all those turnovers greatly helped KC in the standings but with how random a thing getting turnovers can be, many bettors fail to realize that the Chiefs record is nowhere near as good as it looks. Last week the Chiefs actually lost the turnover battle 2-1 and wouldn't you know it, a straight up loss was the result.

On the flip side, the Broncos are coming off their bye week as they prepare to catch fire again and attempt to defend their Super Bowl title. They went into the week of rest off a 25-23 victory in New Orleans where they got ran a blocked XP back to the house to turn what would have been a one-point deficit in the final minute into a two-point win.

It's been the solid play of their defense once again this year that's carried them to their 7-3 record, and those defensive players were likely glad to see the bye week after they allowed 30 and 23 points respectively in their last two contests.

Yet, those games came against offensive powerhouses from Oakland and New Orleans and there is no way the Chiefs offense comes close to being comparable. Denver was blown out on this field vs. KC a year ago when Peyton Manning threw multiple INT's and I don't believe Denver will allow that to happen again.

It will be the Broncos defense that leads the way one more time as they should have no trouble suffocating a sub-par Chiefs attack that does little to stretch the field and strike fear in the opposition.

Furthermore, with KC having lived off turning the ball over this year, as long as Denver QB Trevor Siemian takes care of the ball, this game could turn into a blowout. Denver's offense is more than capable of exposing a Chiefs defense that allows nearly 375 yards per game and turning those drives into points.

KC is one of the better points allowed defenses with just 18.7/game given up, but again, that's largely due to the turnovers they've gotten which is still at an unsustainable rate right now.

Surprisingly, there are still plenty of believers in this Kansas City squad as more than 60% of the bets taken so far on the spread and ML have come on the visitors.

Given that typically teams off a bye week get the majority of the love, betting percentages like that are quite surprising and I'm clearly seeing this game play out in a much different fashion.

Denver is 14-5-1 ATS when coming off a bye week over the past decade or so, and they are on a 6-1-1 ATS run at home. Throw in a 3-8 ATS mark for Kansas City on the road against a winning opponent and I've got no problem laying the small number with the home side here.

Best Bet: Take Denver -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football betting preview: Kansas City at Denver

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39.5)

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for what figures to be an exciting race for the AFC West title, and their two head-to-head matchups over the next six weeks will go a long way toward determining the division champion. The Broncos get the first crack at hosting their rivals when the Chiefs visit the Mile High City on Sunday night.

There’s plenty at stake for both teams, who are one game behind Oakland in the division and tied for the AFC’s two wild-card spots, and the atmosphere figures to be even more electric under the lights of prime time. "I don't think you could make it any bigger or more intense than it already is," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "The way the division has gone to this point, it's already pretty tight. This is our first crack at these guys, and they're the defending Super Bowl champions. We've been in a lot of battles with these guys over the years." The Broncos have dominated their rivals in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings, but the Chiefs ended a long skid in the series with a 29-13 triumph in the final matchup last season. While Denver should be healthy coming off its bye week, Kansas City is banged-up – especially on defense, with a number of key players nursing injuries that could keep them off the field Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Kansas City. The line briefly dropped half a point to 3, but quickly returned to 3.5 and has remained. The total opened at 39.5 and hasn’t moved all week.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: This game was flexed into the Sunday night TV spot and the Patriots/Jets game was removed, and for good reason. This is a critical game in the AFC West division as both teams enter this week trailing Oakland by one game for first place in the division. The road team won both meetings last seasonand is now 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five head-to-head battles. The Chiefs are 8-2 to the Under this season, but that has been factored in by the oddsmakers as this is the lowest Over/Under line in any game this week. Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have had this game at Broncos -3.5 favs at home all week and haven’t had to move off that number as we are seeing solid two way action, with the Chiefs getting just under 60 percent of the action to cover the +3.5. We have however moved the total from 40 to 39.5 as we are long on UNDER action with over 70 percent." - Michael Stewart.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Sports Authority Field at Mile High is clear skies with temperatures in the high 30’s at kickoff and winds out of the west at 11 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Kansas City - RB Charcandrick West (probable, concussion), DB Marcus Peters (questionable, hip), DB Steven Nelson (questionable, neck), LB Derrick Johnson (questionable, achilles), Dontari Poe (questionable, back), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, knee), LB Tamba Hali (questionable, knee), DL Jaye Howard (questionable, hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (out, groin), LB Dee Ford (out, hamstring)

Denver - DE Derek Wolfe (probable, elbow)

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U): Kansas City’s offense has been pedestrian, thanks in large part to a rash of injuries, and could be without two top receivers with Jeremy Maclin (doubtful, groin) and rookie Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee) hurting. If the Chiefs are going to have success against Denver’s stout defense, though, it likely will have to be on the ground with Spencer Ware, who got off to a great start to the season but has not scored a touchdown in the last three games. The Chiefs’ defense also is ailing with linebackers Derrick Johnson (Achilles) and Tamba Hali (knee) and nose tackle Dontari Poe (back) listed as questionable, although top cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) is likely to return after missing last week’s 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Denver leans on one of the best defenses in the league and ranks second in the NFL with 20 takeaways, including four in a 25-23 win at New Orleans prior to the bye week. The strong defense helps make up for a lackluster offense that has struggled to run the ball consistently and now is relying on rookie Devontae Booker to carry the load in the backfield. First-year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has not put up impressive numbers but does enough to keep the Broncos in games and has a pair of dangerous targets in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who have enjoyed great success against the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a bye week.
* Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

CONSENSUS: The home team is getting 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 54 percent of the total action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Chiefs at Broncos
By Micah Roberts

Sunday Night Football gives us a classic AFC West matchup with Kansas City visiting Denver, but the circumstances this time around are a little unusual as neither of the two 7-3 teams are sitting in first-place. Oakland holds that distinction, but depending on how the Raiders (8-2) fare at home against Carolina, the winner of this game could find themselves in a first-place tie.

The Broncos come off a bye and are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a total hovering around 39. They've won three of their last four, including an improbable 25-23 win at New Orleans in their last game that featured a winning defensive two-point conversion. The offense has been extremely vanilla with QB Trevor Siemian while in search of a running game, but the No. 4 ranked defense has kept them within reach of a win in every game. The Orange Crush pass rush has sacked opposing QBs 29 times, just two behind NFL leading Buffalo.

Kansas City had a five-game win streak snapped as 7-point home favorites in a 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Just like Denver, they too have a vanilla averaging just 97 rushing ypg, but rely on the opportunistic defense to pave the way to victory. They lead the NFL with 23 turnovers forced and have a turnover ratio of +13. Denver's offense has turned the ball over 15 times and Siemian has been sacked 26 times, both areas that the Chiefs will look to exploit.

The Chiefs combination of a conservative offense and opportunistic defense has seen them stay Under the total in their last six and eight of 10 this season. The Broncos have stayed Under in five of their last seven. Both defenses allow only 18 ppg.

RECENT MEETINGS

The road team has covered the last five meetings, including the underdog covering the last four. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Under has gone 3-0-2 in the last five at Denver. Kansas City (+3.5, 42) won 29-13 at Denver in the last meeting in 2015 and Denver (+3, 42) won 31-24 at Kansas City in the earlier meeting.

LINE MOVEMENT

MGM sports books opened Denver -3 on Monday and within an hour it was bet up to -3.5 where it's remained all week through Saturday. The low number in town is at William Hill book at -3 (-120). The low total number is 38.5 at Stratosphere and Caesars books and the high number is at 39.5 at multiple books.

WHO THE BETTORS TAKING?

"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day."

ROBERTS' RATING

I have the Chiefs a half-point better than the Broncos and I give Denver a full three points for home field which makes my number Kansas City -2.5. I have the Raiders a half-point better than Kansas City making them the second highest rated AFC team, 4-points behind the Patriots.

DIVISION ODDS (WESTGATE)

The Broncos came into the season as 3-to-2 favorites to win the AFC West with the Chiefs close behind at 8-to-5. The Raiders were the third choice at 7-to-2 and currently lead the division which has forced the odds to flip with them as the 10-to-13 favorite. Denver is now 3-to-1 and Kansas City 11-to-4. The Chargers have been eliminated from contention.

SUPER BOWL ODDS (WESTGATE)

Raiders (14/1), Broncos (20/1), Chiefs (25/1)

WEATHER

A storm front can sneak up over the rockies onto Denver at a moments notice, but as of Saturday there doesn't appear a chance of snow or rain. It will be a crisp 49 degrees, which isn't a big deal, but the 15 mph winds is certainly something to take notice of.

INJURIES

CHIEFS: Charcandrick West (concussion) ?, DE Dee Ford (hamstring) ?, WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) ?, DB Marcus Peters (hip) ?, DT Jaye Howard (hip) ?
BRONCOS: CB Kayvon Webster (abdomen) ?, CB Aqib Talib (lower back) ?

TRENDS

-- Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in last four coming of an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in last 11 road games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 to the Under in last five following a loss.
-- Denver is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight home games.
-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against AFC West teams.
-- Denver is 6-1 to the Under in last seven against winning teams.

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate SuperBook posted their early Week 13 spreads on Tuesday and have Denver -4.5 at Jacksonville and Kansas City getting +3.5 at Atlanta.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC West Rivals Clash'

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos November 27, 8:30 EST

Longtime AFC West Rivals Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos get it on at Sports Authority Field in this week's Sunday Night'r. The Chiefs' five game win streak ended this past week with a stunning 19-17 home loss to the Bucs moving the mark to 7-3 (4-5-1 ATS) on the campaign. Denver, which also holds a 7-3 record (7-3 ATS) defeated Saints 25-23 lin its last effort as 3-point road underdogs and enter refreshed off their bye week.

The betting market not overly impressed with Chiefs ability to get Winston and the Tampa Bay offense off the field in the loss at Arrowhead Stadium have given Denver the nod opening Broncos -3.0 point home favorites.

Adding fuel to the betting market's lean towards Denver. The Broncos sports a money-making 6-1-1 ATS record in front of the home audience, a sparkling 6-0 ATS streak after a bye, 11-2 ATS record last thirteen with an extra week to prepare. Additionally, Broncos have won seven of eight vs their division rival, twelve of fifteen as host in the series. Also, Broncos have a habit of coming up big at the betting window following an upset win as an underdog. In the last eleven such situations, Broncos have cashed 10 tickets with just one being tossed in the trash bin.

That said, do note the Chiefs have cashed four straight on the road vs a division opponent and have covered eight of nine in a division opponents back yard. One final nugget, Chiefs have a sparkling 6-1 record against the betting line following a loss the previous effort when squaring off against a division rival the next game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 27

SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY. Bolts 3-2 as road dog TY, now 21-10-1 in role since 2011. Bolts also “over” 9-2 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 3-7 vs. line TY, now 4-11 vs. spread last 15 on board since late 2015. Titans “over” 11-3 last 14 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Titans, based on Titans’ “totals” and anti-Bears trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 2-5 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Gus Bradley also “over” 10-6 last 16. Rex Ryan 5-2 last seven vs. spread at Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh “under” 9-3 since late LY. Cincy 2-8 vs. spread TY but Bengals have won last five SU in series (4-1 vs. line).
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Ravens, based on recent and “totals” and series trends.

ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards just 3-8 last eleven vs. spread, 1-3 last four on road. Falcs only 1-3 vs. line at home TY, but also “over” 8-2 this season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins win and cover last five TY, Niners 0-9 SU, 1-8 vs. line last 9 since Rams opener. Both also “over” 6-3 last 9 TY.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

LOS ANGELES at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 6-1 last seven vs. line, only L that stretch the wild loss vs. Denver. Rams 3-0-1 vs. number as visitor TY (not counting London game), and “under” 19 -7-1 since late in 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.

NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Winless Browns now also no covers last five TY, also “under” last three after Hue Jackson “over” 12-3 in fifteen previous as HC at Oakland (2011) and Brownies TY. Eli 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs just 1-6 vs. spread last seven as host, 4-9 since LY.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

CAROLINA at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 0-4-1 last five vs. spread away from home, but 12-6 last 18 as reg,-season dog. Raiders 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-9 since LY for Del Rio. Raiders also “over” 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: Cam and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick 0-5-1 vs. line against Jets since 2013, including very damaging SU loss late LY. Pats 5-1 SU and vs. line since Brady return, Jets on 2-6 spread skid. “Overs” 11-2 last 13 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


KANSAS CITY at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
KC has won and covered last three away, but Andy Reid 1-5 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Broncos since moving to KCV in 2013. Kubiak on 9-3 spread run, 7-3 TY, and 5-1 last six vs. spread as host. “Unders” 8-2-1 last eleven series meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 12

Sunday Games

Chargers (4-6) @ Texans (6-4)— Short week for Houston after Monday night game in Mexico City, while Chargers are coming off a bye. Texans are 5-0 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites; Bolts are 2-5 in last seven post-bye games, scoring 11.5 pts/game in last four; they’re 1-4 on road this year, with four of five games decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Chargers are 3-2 as road underdogs, 2-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 3-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less. San Diego won four of last five series games, winning 27-20/29-23 here; average total in last four series games, 50.8. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 11-3 vs spread, AFC South home teams are 7-7. Over is 8-2 in San Diego games this year, 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games.

Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8)— Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.

Jaguars (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)— Both teams have fired their OC during season; Jax is 0-3 since they canned their OC, losing by 5-3-7 points, turning ball over nine times (-7) on 35 drives. Buffalo lost three of last four games, is 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home favorites; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD in five of last seven games. Jaguars lost last five games, are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 24-14-5 points, with win at Chicago 17-16, after they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bills are 2-2 vs spread as favorites this year. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-5 vs spread; AFC South road teams are 5-7. Over is 6-4 in Jaguar games, 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games. NFL-wide, favorites of 7+ points are 20-15-1 vs spread this season.

Bengals (3-6-1) @ Ravens (5-5)— Cincy is 3-6-1 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games this year; they’re 1-4-1 in last six games, losing last two by total of 5 points- they lost last four true road games, by 8-14-1-18. Bengals’ only road win this year was 23-22 in Swamp Stadium over Jets back in Week 1. Baltimore won its last two home games; they’re 4-1 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-4 when they allow more. Ravens are 3-2 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-7-21, losses to Raiders/Redskins. Bengals won last five series games, with 3 of 5 by 7+ points; Bengals won 23-16/28-24 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC North games this season. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four road games, 5-1 in last six Raven games.

Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Falcons (6-4)— Arizona coach Arians was hospitalized Monday with chest pains; coaching is stressful. Home side won last eight series games; Redbirds lost last seven visits here, with last win here in ’93. Cardinals turned ball over 8 times (-5) in last three games; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, allowing 33-30 points to Bills/Vikings. Atlanta is 2-3 in last five games after a 4-1 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 1-15 points- average total in Falcon home games, 66.3 (over 4-0). All four Arizona road games also went over. Atlanta is 6-1 in last seven post-bye games (5-2 vs spread). Redbirds are 1-3 on road, with only win at SF (0-2 as road underdog)— all four road games went over total. Over is 8-2 in Atlanta games. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-4 on road. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.

49ers (1-9) @ Dolphins (6-4)— Miami won/covered last five games after 1-4 start, rallying from down 10-0 with 5:00 to go last week in LA- they trailed three of last four games at half. Dolphins are 4-1 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-15-3-4 points. Opponents are 17 of 59 on 3rd down during Miami’s win streak. Fish are +8 in turnovers the last five games. 49ers lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-19-29-3 points (cover was at Arizona). SF was outscored 75-26 in 2nd half of last five games. Niners won five of last seven series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’08. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-3 at home. NFC West underdogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in Niners’ last nine games.

Rams (4-6) @ Saints (4-6)— New Orleans scored 25+ points in all four of its wins; they’re 0-4 when they score less than 25. First road start for rookie QB Goff; at least it won’t rain like it did in his debut LW. Rams have two offensive TDs on their last 43 drives; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 4-0 as road underdogs, with road losses 28-0 at SF, 31-28 in Detroit. New Orleans had three extra days to prep after Thursday game last week; Saints lost last two games by total of 5 points. NO is 2-3 SU at home, with underdog covering all five games- Saints are 0-3 as home faves. Rams won four of last six series games; last one was in ’13. LA is 4-2 in last six visits here (last one in ’10). NFC West non-divisional dogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 4-9, 2-7 at home. Last four Ram games, four of Saints’ last five games stayed under total.

Giants (7-3) @ Browns (0-11)— Cleveland is awful and tired; their bye is next week. New York has 7 wins by total of 27 points; none by more than seven points. Giants are 1-2 in true road games, with only win 20-19 in Dallas- they beat the Rams 17-10 in London, on a neutral field. Cleveland goes back to McCown at QB this week; they’ve been outscored 70-17 in second half of their last four games. Browns are 1-3-1 as home underdogs, with losses on Lake Erie by 5-20-3-25-15 points. Giants won three of four series games; all four were decided by 14+ points- teams split two meetings here, with last one in ‘08. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-9, 0-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven Giant games, 3-0 in Browns’ last three games.

Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Buccaneers (5-5)— Seattle is on a roll, winning last three games by 6-7-11 points; they’re 2-2-1 on road, with wins 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro. Seahawks are +9 in turnovers over their last seven games, after being -5 in first three. Tampa Bay won its last two games; they’ve allowed 27+ points in all five losses- they’re 5-0 allowing less than 27. Bucs are 1-4 at home with only win over Chicago; their home losses are by 5-20-6-15 points. Tampa is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 1-2 at home. These teams came into NFL together in 1976. Bucs won three of last four series games; seven of last nine series games stayed under. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC South underdogs are 9-2, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-6) @ Raiders (8-2)— Short week for Oakland after win in Mexico City Monday; they’ve won/covered last four games, scoring 30 pts/game. Raiders are 2-2 at home this year, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-10 in Coliseum— they lost to Falcons/Chiefs. Panthers are 3-1 since their bye, with last three games all decided by exactly 3 points; Carolina is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-15-3 points, and win in LA- this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Carolina is 3-2 in series games; four of five games were decided by 11+ points; they split two visits here, with last trip here in ‘08. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Over is 8-2 in Oakland games; last three Panther games stayed under.

Chiefs (7-3) @ Broncos (7-3)— If playoffs started today, this would be AFC Wild Card game. Chiefs had 5-game win streak snapped at home LW; their last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. KC is 3-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs; favorites covered four of their five road games. Broncos won/covered four of five home games, with lone loss to Falcons; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Denver won seven of last eight series games, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 35-10-7 points (Chiefs won 29-13 here LY), NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-16-1 vs spread in divisional games this season. Under is 8-1 in Chiefs’ last nine games, 5-2 in Denver’s last seven. Kansas City is +17 in turnovers in its seven wins; they were -1/-2/-1 in losses- they have only one win this year with negative turnover ratio.


Sunday Night

Patriots (8-2) @ Jets (3-7)— New England is 8-2 in last ten series games, with both losses in OT; average total in last five series games, 48.2. Patriots are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won/covered all four road games since Brady came back, winning by 20-11-16-13 points, but Gronkowski won’t play here, Brady didn’t practice Wednesday. Fitzpatrick is back at QB for Jets after Petty played in 9-6 home loss to Rams; Jets are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. NY is 1-3 at home, with win over Ravens; losses were by 1-10-3 points. Jets’ last three games were all decided by 4 or less points- they’re 2-5 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 11-5 vs spread this year in divisional games. Under is 4-1 in Patriot road games, 5-1 in Jets’ last six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Mo Town took the $300,000 Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on Saturday, earning 10 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Trained by Tony Dutrow, the son of Uncle Mo won by 2 1/2 lengths as my second choice, beating my top pick No Dozing, who rallied to complete a $2 recommended exacta that returned $45.00.

The 4-5 favorite Takaful had to settle for third under a less than stellar ride from Jose Ortiz. The colt jumped to a quick lead, but instead of just going, Ortiz elected to strangle the colt back in third and did not have enough punch left late.

Sportsbooks still had Mo Town listed at +3000 in early Kentucky Debry wagering as of Saturday night,. Expect that price to shrink.

We also hit the recommended exacta in the $200,000 Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, which was a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

My top pick was longshot Han Sense, who failed to threaten, but my second choice McCracken looked impressive, making a late run to get up late at 4-5. Wild Shot ran second, the $2 exacta returning $15.60.

McCracken is the current third choice in early Derby betting at +1000.

In Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future wager, which closes today at 6:00 ET, Classic Empire is 5-1. The “All Others” is the favorite at 502.

Mo Town is currently at 17-1 while McCracken has drifted down to 12-1.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#1 Bride Street 3-1
#4 I'm Betty G 7-2
#6 Raging Town 5-2
#7 Silencer 6-1

Analysis: Bride Street debut for the McLaughlin barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The filly is by Street Cry (11% winners win debut runners) out of a Holy Bull mare that has dropped four winners including a couple of stakes winners, top earner Conveyance ($496,560). The filly debuts with lasix and a solid looking work tab.

I'm Betty G is a $150,000 purchase making her debut for the Pletcher barn that is 19% winners with first time starters. She is by Into Mischief (12% winners with debut runners) out of a Honour and Glory mare that has dropped one other foal to race no winners to date. She spent the winter at Palm Beach Downs and has a solid looking work tab.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $67,000N1X (3:47 ET)
#8 Know Your Customer 12-1
#4 Exulting 2-1
#1 Battle of Evermore 8-1
#6 Altar Boy 12-1

Analysis: Know Your Customer prompted the early pace and finished strongly to beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in the slop last out on the switch from turf. The $170,000 Keeneland purchase will now make his first start over a fast main track. He looks headed in the right direction form wise for Brown and the 12-1 morning line looks generous.

Exulting came with a six wide rally and drew clear late to a good looking maiden score in his second career outing. He caught wet tracks he is bred for in both starts. This guy was a $500,000 purchase and the extra ground here will not be a problem. The McLaughlin barn is 22% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,4,6,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,4,6,8,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 8 Md Sp Wt (4:27 ET)
#5 The Gipper 9-5
#6 Watch Me Whip 12-1
#3 He's Munnie 6-1
#12 Proforma 5-1

Analysis: The Gipper set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish last out in his second career start. He was three lengths clear of the rest of the field. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and looks capable of shaking loose from this field early. The colt is out of the stakes winner Angel Trumpet ($298,589) who has dropped five other foals to race with four winners.

Watch Me Whip is a $330,000 Keeneland purchase making his debut for the Romans barn that is 9% winners with first time starters. The colt is by Smart Strike (14% winners with debut runners) out of a Deputy Minster mare that has dropped three winners, top earner stakes winner Private Vow ($491,213). Solid looking works on the morning tab.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 3,5,6,12
TRI: 5,6 / 3,5,6,12 / 3,5,6,10,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #5 My Good Venezuela 10-1
R3: #1 Text Me 8-1
R4: #7 Remstin 10-1
R5: #10 Kitty Maddnes 15-1
R6: #3 Fuel the Bern 8-1
R6: #11 Opportunity Cost 15-1
R8: #8 Know Your Customer 12-1
R8: #6 Altar Boy 12-1
R9: #7 Trophy Girl 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 4:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$13000 - NW $10,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW15500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 ALLSTAR PARTNER 5/2
# 1 BETTOREVER 6/1
# 5 REGGIANO 3/1

ALLSTAR PARTNER seems to be our best wagering option in this outing. The handicapping group saw this horse's name on a tv show. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager. Take a look at this interesting entrant's avg speed stat of 96 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a formidable bet. That 93 speed fig clocked in the most recent contest puts this standardbred in the mix in this event. BETTOREVER - This gelding has been battling versus some of the most competitive company in this field of late. REGGIANO - When the starter calls, harness racers coming out of the 5 position have more wins than the expected average. This nice horse has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 92 avg class number. Should play well in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 10:02 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$12000 - OPEN 1 HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 7-8 ASSIGNED WALLIS PICKED 7 OVER 3
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 BLUEHOURPOWER 12/1
# 8 PANOCCHIO 2/1
# 1 HERE COMES WILLIAM 7/1

Hey, listen up! BLUEHOURPOWER is the intelligent wager if you like to win and is a competitive value wager given the line. Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this wagering panel. Pace stats here point to a bang-up play. He has good class figures, averaging 91. Worth considering for a bet for this race. Deserves a shot given the successful win percentage he sports. PANOCCHIO - You have to strongly consider a horse that wins a lot, very attractive win pct. When Mattison sends this nice horse out you can bet they'll be in the money, stats show them there 83 percent of the time. HERE COMES WILLIAM - Many analyzers will recognize the stellar TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this group of animals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - SA - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 111

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2015-2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 BARREL KNOT 7/2

# 4 OKIE BLACKBIRD 20/1

# 5 AIN'T NO OTHER 6/1

My choice for this event is BARREL KNOT. Has been running solidly lately and will probably be up near the lead early on. Has posted strong Equibase Speed Figs in turf sprint races in the past. OKIE BLACKBIRD - With a solid jockey who has won at a very strong 15 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. AIN'T NO OTHER - Had one of the most competitive speed figures of this field in his last contest. Going in a turf sprint race gives this gelding a very strong shot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $3500 Class Rating: 101

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR REGISTERED OREGON BRED TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE BAXTER ANDRUSS FUTURITY TRIALS. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 L BAR D GENUINE RED 4/5

# 5 FLYIN ROCKS 9/2

# 6 JESSES CLAIM TA FAME 3/1

L BAR D GENUINE RED is my choice. Will probably compete solidly in the early pace clash which bodes well with this field. He has been running soundly and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this group of horses. Is tough not to consider given the company run in recently. FLYIN ROCKS - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Rosales running at this distance are the most favorable in this group of horses. Rosales has shown excellent profits (+1 ROI ) with horses in short events. JESSES CLAIM TA FAME - He must be given a chance given the solid speed numbers. Must be carefully examined based on the competitive Equibase speed fig posted in the last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:15pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#4 LOOKS TO SPARE (ML=9/5)
#7 BRO DEREK (ML=7/2)


LOOKS TO SPARE - Entered last at Zia Park in a race with a class number of 99. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time puts him in a solid position right here. He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. He has the highest earnings per race entered. Check out this animal. BRO DEREK - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +40. This jock/handler tandem has done well together over the last year. This gelding is in first-rate condition right now. Ended up first last out and comes back soon. Recent Equibase speed figs show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CLASSIC GENT (ML=9/2), #3 MR MARCOM (ML=5/1), #5 DELAYED BY WHO (ML=6/1),

CLASSIC GENT - The lack of morning blow outs has to make one concerned despite the strong effort in the last event. MR MARCOM - The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. DELAYED BY WHO - This runner didn't go to the head of the pack and didn't close ground down the homestretch last time he ran. I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job done occasionally.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BRO DEREK - Love the latest bullet work. Should perform well today.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #4 LOOKS TO SPARE on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

4 with 7 with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#13 PINK PRINCESS (ML=7/2)
#14 SMART N SMOKIN (ML=8/1)
#9 UKNOWFRIENDS (ML=12/1)
#6 GINGER BEER (ML=4/1)


PINK PRINCESS - The jockey and trainer combination have a positive ROI when they work together. This horse should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. If you review the PP's for this animal, you'll see she has recorded the top speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat race in today's race and this horse has a superb chance to win. This animal picks up a lot of money per race. I believe she will add to the lifetime earnings in this race. SMART N SMOKIN - Trainer, Merryman, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Merryman brings her right back. I advocate you stick with this hot mare. A repeat of that recent race on October 29th where she earned a speed rating of 92 looks good enough to score in this event. UKNOWFRIENDS - This filly should be in top form, this far into her form cycle. I just may give this one a fair chance. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the end. GINGER BEER - Have to make this mare a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp race on Nov 12th. I'm optimistic this mare will run well today. Last prep was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is she can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SALLY OH SALLY (ML=7/2), #8 STORMY MISTRESS (ML=5/1), #10 TAKE IT INSIDE (ML=5/1),

SALLY OH SALLY - In the last race this racer finished ninth. Doesn't look promising for her chances this time out. This mare garnered a speed fig in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. STORMY MISTRESS - Don't think this less than sharp equine will make an impact today. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. TAKE IT INSIDE - When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a much better speed rating than last race out to be competitive in this turf sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SMART N SMOKIN - This steed's last two speed figures of 87 and 92 are better the today's class rating of 83.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #13 PINK PRINCESS to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [9,13,14]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:17 PM EASTERN POST

9.0 FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING $67,000.00 PURSE

#4 CHICADORO
#6 DAISY CUTTER
#1 INCHARGEOFME
#3 QUANT

#4 CHICADORO, a British-bred entry, has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five starts, hitting the board in three of those efforts, including a BLISTERING, 13-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her 5th race back. #6 DAISY CUTTER, the morning line favorite, comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN BOARD HITS" in her last two starts. #1 INCHARGEOFME, who was also bred in Great Britain, is the pace profile leader has hit the board in each of her three career starts to date, including a maiden-breaking win in her 2nd race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Sunday 11/27 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 423 - 1213 / $2,315.50

BEST BETS: 55 - 99 / $186.30

Best Bet: LETTUCERIPRITA A (8th)

Spot Play: ZOOMING (2nd)


Race 1

(2) CENTURION ATM didn't race that badly last week getting shuffled as the lead changed; MacDonald drives today and he deserves another chance. (7) HEMI SEELSTER was hard to handle and very antsy in the pocket before ultimately breaking in last; his prior two efforts on the front end were super. (8) WIND OF THE NORTH returns locally after being right there in the TVG Final at The Meadowlands but he's got to overcome the far outside post.

Race 2

(5) ZOOMING has been in good form for quite some time now and he should be in line for a perfect trip from this spot. (3) CHARMED LIFE has plenty of class to her and she ships in off a sharp score upstate. (1) LILY'S SWAN POND was buried in that tough Open Handicap last week; he was a good second at this level four back.

Race 3

(3) XTATIC HANOVER was better last week which could be signaling a return to form; he may offer the best value of the contenders. (1) ZORGWIJK NOVA rallied nicely from off the pace after that second-tier start last out; mare will likely be controlling the action today. (4) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER should be in line for a better trip today.

Race 4

(3) SOUL TRAIN had been looking much better prior to last week's tiring front-end effort. Trotter can strike from off the pace today. (2) WING FLASH flattened late in a fast race last out; mare was solid the week before. (6) SIM BROWN blew away lesser in his second start for new connections and he may be sharp enough to handle this type.

Race 5

(1) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT was second last week and stays at the same level debuting for new connections off the claim; logical. (4) LO RAIL CROSSING missed a week but had been sharp in prior starts. (5) ROCKET MASTER gets a driver upgrade exiting the amateur ranks.

Race 6

(8) DARK ROAST arrives from The Meadows making her debut for the Allard barn and she gets Sears in the bike; trotter could fit well in here and is worth a look despite the poor post. (6) WHATNBLAZES hasn't won in two years but he fits at the basement level and he gets a professional driver back in the bike. (7) CI'S BUCKEYE gets Bartett back in the bike today but he stopped badly last week; use caution.

Race 7

(9) DREAMSTEELER was very game in victory for the second straight week; why not again? (4) WELL CONNECTED KID was outbattled by the top choice; big threat again from these connections. (2) MASSIVE TALENT lands the best post and should be a player in here, but he also should have won last week.

Race 8

(3) LETTUCERIPRITA A is up in class off a big effort and he keeps Bartlett over a good Bamond trainee; stick with him. (5) SNAP TO IT A returns locally and he's had success with these in the past. (1) REASONABLE FORCE had pace once clear last out and he draws best.

Race 9

(2) CASIMIR JITTERBUG gets needed post relief and the veteran is more than capable with these. (1) SPORTS BETTOR exits claimers off a sharp pocket-sitting win and he draws best again. (3) LORD OF MISRULE gets a better starting spot and was Dube's choice.

Race 10

(1) POLAK A gets away from the big boys, draws best and gets Stratton back in the bike; they teamed up for a big upset win three back. (2) BLOOD BROTHER came too late last week; he should be in a better spot today. (4) DOWNTHEHIGHWY may have needed his first local start last week and the Burke trainee can be better today.

Race 11

(4) SOMEWHERE IN L A returns locally now in the Banca barn and he can take these a long way on the front end. (3) TEXICAN N gets post relief and certainly can go with these. (2) LETTUCEROCKTHEM A is a bit unpredictable but the talent is there.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (2nd) Queenofthechannel, 6-1
(4th) Til We Meet Again, 6-1


Churchill Downs (4th) Anmaat, 5-1
(7th) Sky Wonder, 6-1


Del Mar (1st) Cyclone Betty, 7-2
(7th) Arewehavingfunyet, 9-2


Fair Grounds (1st) Muzz'em, 5-1
(9th) Northwoods Cat, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (8th) Brownie Finale, 4-1
(9th) Mama's Secretstorm, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (4th) Testaruda, 3-1
(9th) North of Calhoun, 5-1


Laurel (1st) Sventastic, 6-1
(5th) Proud Maid Marian, 9-2


Parx Racing (3rd) Mightnight Bounty, 9-2
(6th) Bertranda, 6-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Royal Briar, 5-1
(7th) Meeting in Heaven, 4-1


Woodbine (4th) Rebel Music, 4-1
(8th) Katalox, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest

— Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)

— Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)

— Washington Redskins +7 (405)— W

— Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)

— Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380)

— Oakland Raiders -3 (379)

Season record: 23-43-2

Latenight Update: Iona wins Alaskan Shootout, 75-73 over Nevada