Sunday 11/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Sunday’s games

Cleveland won six of last seven games, is 3-1 on road (2-2 as road favorite); under is 4-0 in their road games. 76ers lost last two games by 5-16 points; they’re 7-4 as home underdogs. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Cavaliers won their last seven games with Philly but are 1-7 vs spread in last eight series games. Cleveland won its last three visits here, by 7-1-10 points. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Denver lost its last three road games by 1-20-25 points; they’re 5-3 vs spread on road, but last SU road win was Nov 6. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Phoenix lost six of its last eight games; they’re 2-4 at home, 3-3 vs spread. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Nuggets won last three games with Phoenix by 8-18-16 points; under is 4-2 in last six series games. Denver won/covered once in last four visits to desert.

Brooklyn lost its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); six of its last seven games went over. Nets are 3-4 at home, 4-2 as a home underdog. Sacramento is 2-5 on road, both SU/ATS; five of their last six games went over the total. Nets won seven of last nine games with Sacramento (8-1 vs spread); Kings lost last four trips to Brooklyn (0-4 vs spread). Last four series games went over the total.

Milwaukee lost four of last five games; they’re 1-4 on road, both SU/ATS. Four of Bucks’ last five games stayed under total. Orlando lost last three games by 4-5-3 points; they’re 4-5 at home, 1-2 as a home underdog. Last six Magic games stayed under the total. Home side won six of last seven Milwaukee-Orlando games; Bucks lost by 24-9 points in last two visits here. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Clippers won four of their last five games, are 7-1 on road, 3-3 as a road favorite. Eight of last nine LA games went over total. Pacers lost three of their last four home games, are 6-4 at home, 1-2 as home underdogs. Under is 6-2 in Indiana’s last eight games. Clippers won three of last four games with Indiana; LA won three of its last four visits here. Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games.

New Orleans won four of last five games, they’re 2-6 on road, 0-0 as road favorites. Three of last four Pelican games went over total. Mavericks lost their last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 at home, 0-3 as home underdogs. Last three Dallas games went over total. Dallas won seven of last ten games with New Orleans; four of last five series games stayed under total. Pelicans lost five of last six visits to Dallas (3-3 vs spread).

Rockets won four of last five games, are 6-4 on road, 2-1 as road favorites. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Houston games. Portland lost five of last seven games; they’re 5-3 at home, 0-2 as home underdogs. Houston won its last two games with Portland by 14-17 points, but Rockets lost three of last four visits here, in series where home team won seven of last ten series games. Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Hawks lost four of last five games, are 4-4 on road, 3-5 vs spread. Last seven Atlanta games stayed under the total. Lakers lost four of last five games, but their last two were both against the Warriors. LA is 5-4 at home, 4-4-1 vs spread. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Lakers lost three of last four games with Atlanta; three of those four games stayed under total. Hawks won last two games against the Lakers here, by 29-5 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA*|*LA CLIPPERS*at*INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*2.9 units*)

NBA*|*HOUSTON*at*PORTLAND
Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (HOUSTON) good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games
36-13*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.5%*|*22.5 units*)
1-1*this year.**(*50.0%*|*0.4 units*)

NBA*|*ATLANTA*at*LA LAKERS
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (LA LAKERS) off a loss against a division rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
127-70*since 1997.**(*64.5%*|*50.0 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Iowa State Cyclones (5-0) at Gonzaga Bulldogs (5-0)

Date: November 27, 2016 1:30 PM EDT

No. 11 Gonzaga enters Sunday's game against defensive-minded No. 21 Iowa State coming off its most efficient offensive half of the season Friday in a 77-72 win over Florida.

The Bulldogs (5-0) erased an 11-point first half deficit by scoring 45 points in the second half, making nearly 61 percent of their shots.

Conversely, Iowa State (5-0) used its defense to reach the championship game of the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando, Fla., on Sunday.

In a 73-56 win over Miami, the Cyclones forced the Hurricanes into 19 turnovers and held them to 36 percent shooting from the field, including a 2 of 14 mark from 3-point range.

"Defensively, we kept keeping on," Iowa State coach Steve Prohm said. "We were walling up in the paint. When the shot went up, I thought everybody was attacking the glass."

Gonzaga, meanwhile, shot mostly in the 70 percent range for in the second half in their comeback win over Florida.

"We ended up shooting 60 percent against one of the better defensive teams in the country, not just numbers wise but eye-test-wise," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said.

"That was an impressive job. There was some blood in the water and they were circling (in the first half), but we were able to put that aside and get back into attack mode."

Gonzaga trailed or was tied with Florida for the first 31 minutes of the game.

Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams dunked off a feed from Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss to tie it at 57-57. Silas Melson made a 3-pointer to give the Bulldogs their first lead, 60-57, with 8:42 remaining.

"We came into the locker room and had to give ourselves a little gut check, because they were out-toughing us and outplaying us in the first half," Melson said.

Melson scored 10 of his 12 points in the second half, including two free throws with 22.9 seconds to ice the game.

"I've been on him and on him to step up when we need him the most," Few said of Melson. "He's a more confident player this year. I don't think we were shocked by that. Obviously we're all rooting or it after what he went through (shooting struggles) last year.

"He didn't start off the game well. He was extremely tentative. Then he set his feet and played with some pride."

Iowa State's top shooters, guards Naz Mitrou-Long and Matt Thomas, are in need of setting their feet as well. They enter the game making only 31 percent of their shots in two games in the AdvoCare Invitational.

Prohm is more concerned about Iowa State's mental toughness entering its significant matchup with the Bulldogs. The Cyclones managed to survive against Miami despite committing 20 turnovers.

"The resilience, leadership and character of our seniors are huge for us," Prohm said. "The thing that people question about us -- our toughness and our defense -- I thought that won games for us."

Iowa State is looking beyond Sunday's game in terms of the magnitude a victory would be come March.

"We didn't come down here to play for second, third or fourth or fifth place," guard Monte Morris said. "We came down here to win it all.

"We've put ourselves in position to do that. We're going to be able to get the job done."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: UAB Blazers (3-2) at Saint Mary's Gaels (4-0)

Date: November 27, 2016 5:00 PM EDT

Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett has a primary objective as he prepares his No. 15 Gaels for Sunday's neutral-site game against UAB at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

"Defense, defense, defense," Bennett said. "We're not super quick, so we need to be super sound."

San Jose State beat St. Mary's defenders off the dribble consistently in their game Tuesday, and the Gaels had trouble breaking away from the Spartans as result. The Gaels led 43-40 at halftime and were unable to take control until midway through the second half of their 81-64 victory at home.

"I don't think the starters played as well as they could defensively," Bennett said. "We don't give up 40 points in a half very often. We need some good practice time."

The Gaels (4-0) will get that practice time because they have five days between their last game against San Jose State and Sunday's contest against UAB.

UAB has the same chance to prepare, as it has not played since Tuesday either.

UAB returns 11 of 12 players, including four of five starters, from last season's 26-7 squad, which won the Conference USA regular-season title. The one departed player, Robert Brown, is significant, because he was the Blazers' only first-team all-conference selection, but they still have plenty of talent.

The one new element is Robert Ehsan, a UAB assistant last year who was elevated to head coach when Jerod Haase left to take the Stanford job.

The Blazers (3-2) suffered a surprising home loss to Furman back on Nov. 14, and also lost to Kansas by 20 points in Kansas City, Mo., in their fourth game. The Blazers got behind 17-0 and 25-3 against the Jayhawks and were never in the game.

"I think the first six or seven minutes the environment overwhelmed us," Ehsan said on his postgame radio show.

UAB bounced back from that loss to defeat George Washington the next day. The Blazers started fast in that game, grabbing a 16-point lead in the first half before winning 81-74 on Tuesday.

"Coming out the way we did, I was very happy," Ehsan said. "I wish we had come out like that yesterday."

Much like Saint Mary's, UAB has a low-post player whose work in the paint opens this up for perimeter shooters. The Blazers' 6-foot-8 Chris Cokley is averaging 13.2 points on 58.7 percent shooting from the field, providing room to shoot for Dirk Williams (13.4 points per game, 48.8 percent 3-point shooting) and William Lee (10.2, 41.2 percent).

"He opens up the floor for our guards," UAB guard Deion Lavender said of Cokley "We get him the ball early (and) they have to double him and start making adjustments. It's hard for big guys to contain him -- one-on-one -- on the blocks."

For Saint Mary's, 6-11 junior Jock Landale provides a similar inside threat, allowing Emmett Naar (4 of 8 from 3-point range), Calvin Hermanson (12 of 25), Kyle Clark (6 of 16) and Stefan Gonzalez (6 of 12) to have room for their long-range shooting.

Landale is averaging 21.3 points on 75 percent shooting from the field and is a surprise to everyone except Bennett, who notes that Landale led the team in points per minute last season. But his minutes were limited last season when he played behind Dane Pineau, one of five starters who return from last season's 29-6 Saint Mary's squad.

Pineau, a preseason all-conference selection, missed the San Jose State game with a recurrence of back spasms that have plagued him for the past several weeks. He will make the trip to Las Vegas and there is a pretty good chance he'll play. Dislodging Landale from the starting lineup will be difficult, though.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) at UCLA Bruins (6-0)

Date: November 27, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

UCLA gets the opportunity to win a tournament named after the program's patriarch when the 14th-ranked Bruins play Texas A&M in the championship game of the Wooden Legacy tournament Sunday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif.

UCLA (6-0) reached the championship game with wins over Portland and Nebraska. The Bruins beat the Pilots 99-77 in the first round, tying the tournament scoring record, before beating the Cornhuskers 82-71 in the semifinals.

Texas A&M (4-1) won two in a row since suffering a two-point loss to USC. The Aggies beat Cal State Northridge 95-73 in the opening round of the tournament and stormed back from a 17-point second-half deficit to edge Virginia Tech 68-65 in the semifinals. They are trying to win their first in-season tournament title since the 2007 NIT Season Tip-Off.

The Bruins are well aware that the Wooden Legacy tournament is named after John Wooden, the legendary coach who became known as the Wizard of Westwood after transforming UCLA into a national power. Wooden led the Bruins to 10 NCAA championships in a span of 12 years, including seven in a row from 1967-73.

UCLA coach Steve Alford was asked what it will mean to his team to play in the championship game of the Wooden tournament.

"It means a lot for different reasons," he said. "Coach Wooden's name is on it, and what he means to our institution and his legacy of creating excellence both in the classroom and on the basketball court, that is something our guys take seriously.

"Secondly, we have talked this as a team, and it's our first chance to win a championship. It doesn't mean that you'll have postseason success, but the Final Four teams last year all won an exempt tournament. If that is a goal of ours, as it is, we want to take those steps towards trying to get to that point. Knowing that this championship could have Coach Wooden's name on it is an extra bonus."

Texas A&M coach Bill Kennedy agreed.

"I had the chance to meet Coach Wooden and what he represents," Kennedy said. "I have a lot of respect for him, and to play UCLA would be a good opportunity for us. Anytime you're involved with something Coach Wooden is part of, it is a true blessing."

The Bruins are second in the nation in scoring at an average of 100.7 points. T.J. Leaf leads the way with averages of 17.8 points and 8.8 rebounds while Bryce Alford is averaging 17.7 points, Isaac Hamilton 16.7 and Lonzo Ball 16 points. Thomas Welsh is putting up 11.3 points and 9.7 rebounds.

D.J. Hogg scored a career-high 25 points in Texas A&M's win over Cal State Northridge. He recorded his first career double-double the following night against Virginia Tech, posting 17 points and 10 rebounds. Hogg is averaging 19.7 points, shooting 53.7 percent from the field and making 55 percent from 3-point range over the past three games.

The tournament provides a platform for the continued emergence of Robert Williams, a 6-foot-9 freshman. In the past three games, Williams is averaging 11.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and two blocks.

"I'm just trying to impact each game best as I can -- rebounds, blocked shots, whatever coach needs me to do," Williams told Yahoo Sports.

UCLA leads Texas A&M 4-0 in the all-time series. They have not met since the second round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament, when the Bruins beat the Aggies 51-49 to advance to the Sweet 16.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Sunday’s games

Duquesne lost its last three games, dropping winnable games vs Canisius/UT-Martin by total of four points; Cleveland State is 1-3, with home win over Canisius, losses by 11 at UT-Martin, 5 in OT to Kent State. Dukes are #305 in experience- they’re turning ball over 21.6% of time. Vikings are #312 in experience, are turning ball over 21.2% of time. Duquesne’s only two wins are over teams ranks #282/311. A-14 home favorites are 7-17 against the spread; Horizon road underdogs are 6-8.

First true road game for Kent State, which went 1-2 in neutral court games, with all three decided by 5 or less points. This is Flashes’ first game against a top 200 team- they’re protecting ball well but shooting just 30% on arc. Northeastern won at UConn but lost to LIU on a neutral court; hard to tell what to make of that. Huskies play a slowish pace, are making 40.5% on arc. MAC road underdogs are 7-6 vs spread; CAA home favorites are 2-5.

Ball State lost two of last three games with Valparaiso; games the last two years were both decided by 3 points. Cardinals are 1-1 on road, losing by 18 at Alabama, winning at Saint Louis; they’re starting two sophs, two juniors. Valpo just beat Alabama/BYU at a tourney in Las Vegas; Crusaders are #29 experience team that is shooting 28% on arc but 83.5% on foul line, #2 in country. MAC road underdogs are 7-6 against the spread; Horizon home favorites are 3-7.

LaSalle/Drexel split games last two years, with road team winning both; Explorers are playing for first time in eight days- their three games (1-2) were all decided by six or less points. Drexel is 2-3, beating Hartford by 14 in its only home game; Dragons have new coach- they lost by 13-21 in their two games vs top 200 teams. LaSalle starts three juniors and a senior. A-14 favorites are 9-2 against the spread away from home; CAA underdogs are 11-5 vs spread.

St Mary’s has its whole team back from LY; they’re 4-0 with two top 100 wins, including a 61-57 win at #44 Dayton. Gaels are playing 3rd-slowest pace in country but are shooting 64.7% inside arc, best in country- they play their conference tourney on this court. UAB is 3-2 with a bad home loss to Furman; Blazers have a new coach, are turning ball over 22.8% of time, despite being #42 experience team in country. C-USA road underdogs are 9-8 vs spread; WCC home favorites are 11-7.


AdvoCare tourney, Orlando (these teams all played Thurs/Fri on this floor)

Indiana State lost its first two games in this tourney by total of five points against top 70 teams; they split pair of OT games before coming here- they’re #83 experience team in country. ISU starts two juniors, two seniors. Quinnipiac allowed 83 pts/game in its 0-4 start, losing by 20-11 points in its first two games here, vs top 50 teams. Bobcats are playing #28 pace but as usual, can’t throw ball in ocean. MVC favorites are 6-6, 2-3 away from home; MAAC underdogs are 12-12 vs spread.

Gonzaga is 5-0 with 77-72 win over Florida Friday, when they trailed by 11 late in first half. Bulldogs start two juniors, two seniors- two starters are transfers from Pac-12 schools. Iowa State is 5-0, hammering Miami by 17 after refs bailed them out vs Indiana State (were down 3 with 2:23 left). Cyclones have a terrific senior PG- they start five seniors, which is very unusual at this high level of D-I. WCC favorites are 2-3 vs spread away from home; big X underdogs are 5-2.

Miami beat Florida last two years by 11-2 points but teams weren’t scheduled to play this year, until this tourney happened. Florida is shooting just 28.9% on arc so far (Barry is 7-25)- they haven’t played a home game yet (arena is being re-decorated). Miami is 4-1 after splitting pair of one-sided games here; Hurricanes have #16 eFG% defense, are playing slow pace with inexperienced team (start two sophomores and a junior)- they’re forcing turnovers 22.6% of time. SEC favorites are 8-3 vs spread away from home. ACC underdogs are 3-8.

Seton Hall starts four juniors and a senior who played on LY’s Big East tourney champs; Pirates lost tough game on Thursday to Florida- they beat Quinnipiac by 11 Friday, and also have a win at Iowa. Seton Hall has #27 eFG% in country. Stanford is 5-1, losing by 14 to Miami in its only top 100 game; Cardinal have a new coach, are turning ball over 21.6% of time- they’re #91 experience team. Big East favorites are 7-8 vs spread on neutral floors; Pac-12 underdogs are 2-8.


Wooden Legacy, Anaheim (these teams all played Thurs/Fri at Cal-State Fullerton)

Dayton starts three seniors, two sophs; they’re thin up front with Cunningham out (leg) for a while. Flyers are 3-2, losing by 4 at home to St Mary’s, by 2 to Nebraska here Thursday. New Mexico lost to Va Tech by 20; they’re 4-1, but only top 200 win was by 13 over rival New Mexico State. Lobos start two juniors, two seniors but their PG is a sophomore. A-14 favorites are 9-2 vs spread away from home; Mountain West underdogs are 8-9 vs spread, 0-6 on neutral floors.

Nebraska held UCLA to 82 points Friday, least points Bruins have scored in six games, but still lost by 11; Cornhuskers have good wins over La Tech/Dayton despite starting four sophs. Virginia Tech came back from 17 down against Texas A&M but lost by 3 in semis Friday; Hokies have very good PG who plays too many minutes- they’re shooting 39.3% on arc, protecting ball well, but they’re not real deep. ACC favorites are 12-9 vs spread on neutral floors; Big 14 favorites are 5-3 on neutral floors.

UCLA is scoring 100.8 pts/game in its 6-0 start; they have best eFG% in country, are making 45% on arc and have Alford’s son to step in at PG if frosh sensation Ball is off floor- they are very good. Texas A&M lost by 2 at home to USC, which might make Bruins overconfident; Aggies are rebounding 40.5% of their own misses; they’re very good inside. Pac-12 favorites are 6-7 vs spread on neutral floors (not entirely sure this is a neutral floor, in Anaheim). SEC underdogs are 8-9 away from home.

Northridge is 1-4 but all four losses are to teams in top 90; I look at a down Big West this year and think Matadors can win it in March. CSUN have played #6 pace against the #15 schedule so far, so 1-4 is no surprise, but they’ve got decent depth, experience- this game will say a lot about them. Portland has a new coach- they beat Riverside of Big West by 16. WCC teams are 16-11 in their last 27 games vs Big West teams. Big West underdogs are 7-17 vs spread away from home. WCC favorites are 12-10 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Stampeders Big Grey Cup Favorites Over Ottawa'

The 104th Grey Cup is this Sunday (6 PM ET, ESPN2), live from BMO Field in Toronto, and on paper, it looks like a mismatch between the Calgary Stampeders and the Ottawa RedBlacks. The Stampeders opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 54.5 before moving to –9.5.

Calgary (16-2-1 SU, 14-5 ATS) deserve to be the favorites after rolling over the rest of the CFL. The RedBlacks (9-9-1 SU, 8-11 ATS) aren't as strong as last year's Grey Cup finalists, and they're only 1-5 SU and ATS versus the Stamps since bringing football back to Ottawa in 2014. The over went 4-1-1 during those six games.

As well as the Stampeders have played this year, the RedBlacks remain a viable threat. They beat the spread in last year's 26-20 loss to Edmonton, cashing in as 7-point underdogs. Also, Calgary failed to cover two years ago in their Grey Cup win over Hamilton (+7.5), winning a close one 20-16. Both those games went under. Sunday's weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies over Toronto and temperatures in the low 40s – or around five degrees Celsius.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grey Cup Final
By David Schwab

Following a long and grueling 18-game regular season schedule plus two rounds of playoffs, the stage has been set for this Sunday’s CFL Grey Cup title showdown between the East’s Ottawa RedBlacks and the West’s Calgary Stampeders in a 6 p.m. (ET) kickoff at BMO Field in Toronto.

This past Sunday, Ottawa outlasted Edmonton in the snow with a 35-23 victory as a 2 ½-point home underdog, while Calgary stayed on track to win this season’s Grey Cup with a crushing 42-15 win at home against British Columbia as a 7 ½-point favorite.

Sunday, Nov. 27

Ottawa RedBlacks (9-9-1 SU, 8-11 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (15-2-1 SU, 13-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -9
Total: 54.5

Game Overview

Ottawa may have backed into its second-straight East Division title with just two straight-up wins in its last six regular season contests, but it came up with a victory when it needed to the most to make its second-straight trip the Grey Cup Championship. The RedBlacks went 4-3 against the spread this season when closing as underdogs and the total has now gone OVER in six of their last seven games after going OVER the closing 53-point line in last week’s win against Edmonton.

If Ottawa is going to have any chance to win the CFL title this time around following a tough six-point loss to Edmonton last season as a seven-point underdog, it is going to need another strong effort from an offense that rolled up 425 yards of total offense in last week’s win. Henry Burris got the start at quarterback and while he ended the day with 246 yards passing, he only managed to complete 57.7 percent of his 26 attempts. The big story was Kienan LaFrance’s 157 yards rushing on 25 carries.

Going all the way back to a rare 26-26 tie against Ottawa in Week 3 of the regular season, the Stampeders’ only loss since then was in a meaningless game against Montreal in Week 19. At one point their SU winning streak reached 14 games and over the final 12 games of that impressive run they went a highly profitable 10-2 ATS. Calgary left little doubt as to just how good this team really is by completely dismantling BC in the West Division Finals.

In that lopsided victory against the Lions, Calgary was able to put things away early with a 32-0 lead at the half. Bo Levi Mitchell ended the day with 365 yards passing and three touchdown strikes while completing 75 percent of his 28 attempts. Jerome Messam added 84 yards rushing on 14 carries as part of a ground game that gained 166 total yards. These two players have been getting it done all season long on an offense that averaged a CFL-high 32.6 points a game. Defensively, the Stampeders also led the league in average points allowed (20.5).

Betting Trends

The RedBlacks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they have failed to cover in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against a team with a SU winning record.

The Stampeders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and they have covered in 19 of their last 26 games overall. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 postseason games.

Head-to-head in this matchup, Calgary has a 4-1-1 edge SU while going 5-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in the last four meetings. Following that Week 3 tie, the Stampeders went on to beat Ottawa 48-23 on Sept. 17 as eight-point favorites at home. The total easily went OVER the closing 54-point line in that game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grey Cup betting preview: Calgary and Ottawa

Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa Redblacks (+9.5, 54.5)

The Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa Redblacks meet in the 104th Grey Cup in Toronto on Sunday. The Stampeders followed up on one of the greatest regular seasons in CFL history with a 42-15 victory against the BC Lions in the West Division final to advance to the Grey Cup for the third time in five years, while the Redblacks beat the Edmonton Eskimos 35-23 to punch their ticket to the championship game for the second time in as many seasons.

Ottawa was one of the few teams able to slow down Calgary as they played out a memorable 26-26 tie in Week 3 before the Stampeders won the second meeting 48-23 on Sept. 17, and are 9.5-point favourites to win their eighth Grey Cup in franchise history.

"Favourites are something y'all can deal with," Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell told reporters. "It's so damn hard to win in the CFL that you have to understand if a team is in the Grey Cup they're there for a reason."

The Redblacks struggled against the Stampeders in recent years, managing one victory in the last six meetings, but Henry Burris turned back the clock since reclaiming the starting job from Trevor Harris by averaging 349 passing yards in his last four starts to put Ottawa on the cusp of lifting its first Grey Cup since 1976.

"We have always been looked at as the underdog on this team," Burris told reporters. "No matter what we have done it seems nobody want to give us respect."

TV: 6 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Calgary as 9-point favorites and by Saturday morning that line has risen to 9.5. The total opened at 54.5 and hasn’t moved all week.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: Since making their return to the league in 2014, Ottawa has played Calgary six times. Two of them have gone to overtime with the REDBLACKS producing an outright win and a tie. But the other four have all gone the Stamps' way - by double digits. Power Sports

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for BMO field home of the 104th Grey Cup is partly cloudy with slight winds coming out of the south east and temperatures at kickoff in the mid-30’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Calgary - DL Brandon Boudreaux (questionable, undisclosed), LB Deron Mayo (questionable, knee), DT Zach Minter (questionable, undisclosed), CB Shaq Richardson (questionable, undisclosed), WR Anthony Parker (questionable, shoulder), WR Joe West (questionable, undisclosed), DL Ben D’Aguilar (questionable, undisclosed), WR Simon Charbonneau-Campeau (questionable, undisclosed), OL Brad Erdos (doubtful, undisclosed), OL Cameron Thorn (doubtful, undisclosed), Pierre Lavertu (doubtful, undisclosed)

Ottawa - DL Aston Whiteside (questionable, undisclosed), DB Nicholas Taylor (questionable, undisclosed), OL Jake Silas (questionable, undisclosed), OL Sir Vincent Rogers (questionable, undisclosed), DL Mike Moore (questionable, undisclosed), K Chris Milo (questionable, undisclosed), DB Kevin Malcolm (questionable, undisclosed), DL Ettore Lattanzi (questionable, undisclosed), QB Brock Jensen (questionable, undisclosed), DB John Boyett (questionable, undisclosed), DL Andrew Marshall (questionable, undisclosed), OL Tommie Draheim (questionable, undisclosed), WR Khalil Paden (questionable, undisclosed), QB Danny O’Brien (questionable, undisclosed), RB Mossis Madu (out, shoulder)

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (16-2-1 SU, 14-5 ATS, 8-9-2 (O/U): Mitchell continues to pick apart opposing defences as he threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against BC. There is plenty of uncertainty on the offensive line as guard Brad Erdos suffered a lower-body injury in the fourth quarter against the Lions and was replaced by Cam Thorn, who was promptly knocked out of the game a few minutes later, while Pierre Lavertu is battling a neck issue. Jerome Messam, who led the league in rushing (1,198) during the regular season, churned out 84 yards on 14 carries in the Western Final and hopes for another strong performance as the eight-year veteran strives to win his first Grey Cup in his hometown.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (9-9-1 SU, 8-11 ATS, 10-8-1 O/U): Backup running back Kienan Lafrance racked up a career-high 157 rushing yards and a touchdown after replacing Mossis Madu Jr., who suffered a shoulder injury on the opening possession against Edmonton. Lafrance will likely get the starting nod Sunday but will share snaps with Travon Van, who is set to be activated after sitting out the Eastern Final while linebacker Taylor Reed is expected to play after missing a majority of the second half with a head injury. Ray Early made 2-of-2 field goals against the Eskimos with Chris Milo nursing a lower-body injury but Milo practiced during the week and should be ready to assume the kicking duties Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Stampeders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Stampeders are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* RedBlacks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Stampeders last 4 playoff road games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The underdog Redblacks are getting 60 percent of the point spread action and the under is getting 62 percent of the action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Grey Cup, Toronto

Calgary (16-2-1) vs Ottawa (9-9-1)— RedBlacks are in only third year of existence, but are playing in Grey Cup for second year in row- they lost 26-20 to Edmonton LY. These two teams tied 26-26 in Ottawa July 8; Stampeders won 48-23* in rematch Sept 17. Stamps are 4-1-1 in series games, all four wins were by 21+ points- the one loss was LY in Ottawa. Calgary is 15-1 since that tie game in July, with lone loss in regular season finale, a meaningless game. Stampeders won 48-20 on this field last month- they’re 11-3 vs spread in last 14 games, 4-3 in last seven. Ottawa is just 3-4 in its last seven games; they won 30-20 on this field back in July. RedBlacks are 4-3 as underdogs this year. Six of last seven Ottawa games went over.

Grey Cup, Sunday

— Calgary (-9.5, 54) @ Ottawa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Bills activate WR Watkins
By The Sports Xchange

The Buffalo Bills officially activated wide receiver Sammy Watkins from the injured reserve list Saturday.
Watkins (foot) was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report, but coach Rex Ryan expects him to play in Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Watkins practiced all week on a limited basis. On Wednesday, he was designated to return from injured reserve.
Watkins was sidelined for eight games due to soreness stemming from offseason foot surgery. He last played in a Sept. 15 loss to the New York Jets in Week 2. The Bills placed Watkins on injured reserve Sept. 30.
The Bills also listed running back LeSean McCoy as questionable after he underwent thumb surgery this week. Wide receiver Percy Harvin was listed as questionable after missing practice Thursday and Friday because of an illness.

--The Philadelphia Eagles ruled out starting running back Ryan Mathews for Monday night's game against the visiting Green Bay Packers.
Mathews' absence was expected after he missed practice all week, a result of a MCL sprain sustained in last week's loss at Seattle.
Mathews was coming off his best effort of the season, rushing for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a win over Atlanta in Week 10, and had 31 yards on seven carries against the Seahawks before he was hurt.
The Eagles are expected to use a combination of rookie Wendell Smallwood, veteran Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner in the backfield. Philadelphia also will be without right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who is dealing with a sprained knee.
Green Bay will be without four players -- linebackers Kyler Fackrell (hamstring) and Blake Martinez (knee), guard T.J. Lang (foot) and cornerback Demetri Goodson (knee).

--The Denver Broncos agreed to terms with safety Darian Stewart on a four-year contract extension through 2020.
Stewart, who is in his seventh NFL season, started 56 of 94 regular-season games and all five postseason contests during his career with St. Louis (2010-13), Baltimore (2014) and Denver.
During his career, Stewart totaled 299 tackles, four sacks, six interceptions, 34 passes defensed, five forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries in the regular season. He also made 14 tackles, one sack, two interceptions, three passes defensed, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in the postseason.

--The New England Patriots released defensive back Shamiel Gary from the practice squad.
Gary, who was signed to the practice squad on Oct. 25, was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Patriots in 2014 and spent time with Chicago, Miami and Minnesota. Gary appeared in six games and recorded seven tackles for the Dolphins last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report for Sunday's games

ARIZONA CARDINALS at ATLANTA FALCONS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
--Questionable: CB Justin Bethel (foot, knee), S Christian Bryant (groin), WR Michael Floyd (hamstring), WR Brittan Golden (groin), S Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder), DT Corey Peters (foot), DT Ed Stinson (hip), G Earl Watford (shoulder)
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Questionable: P Matt Bosher (right hamstring), CB Desmond Trufant (shoulder)

CAROLINA PANTHERS at OAKLAND RAIDERS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
--Out: DE Mario Addison (foot) C Ryan Kalil (shoulder), MLB Luke Kuechly (concussion),
--Questionable: S Tre Boston (ankle), C Gino Gradowski (knee), CB Leonard Johnson (chest), S Colin Jones (concussion), LB A.J. Klein (concussion)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
--Out: LB Shilique Calhoun (knee)
--Questionable: CB David Amerson (knee), WR Michael Crabtree (ankle), C Rodney Hudson (knee), DT Stacy McGee (ankle), S Keith McGill (abdomen), RB Latavius Murray (ankle), G Kelechi Osemele (knee), LB Perry Riley (hamstring)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Out: WR A.J. Green (hamstring)
--Doubtful: TE C.J. Uzomah (calf), S Shawn Williams (hamstring)
--Questionable: LS Clark Harris (groin), S Derron Smith (thigh)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
--Out: T Alex Lewis (ankle), RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (thigh)
--Doubtful: TE Crockett Gillmore (thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (back)
--Questionable: LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), DT Timmy Jernigan (shoulder), DT Brandon Williams (back, hand), G Marshal Yanda (shoulder)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BUFFALO BILLS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Out: DE Jared Odrick (shoulder), LB Dan Skuta (back), DE Chris Smith (eye), TE Julius Thomas (back)
--Questionable: WR Arrelious Benn (concussion), CB Aaron Colvin (concussion), DT Abry Jones (ankle), RB T.J. Yeldon (ankle)
BUFFALO BILLS
--Out: S Robert Blanton (foot), RB Mike Gillislee (hamstring), WR Robert Woods (knee)
--Doubtful: DT Corbin Bryant (shoulder)
--Questionable: LB Lorenzo Alexander (ankle), TE Charles Clay (knee), T Cordy Glenn (back), WR Percy Harvin (illness), T Seantrel Henderson (not injury related), RB LeSean McCoy (thumb), WR Sammy Watkins (foot)

LOS ANGELES RAMS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
LOS ANGELES RAMS
--Questionable: C Tim Barnes (foot), DT Ethan Westbrooks (thigh)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: RB Daniel Lasco (hamstring)
--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (knee, quadricep), RB Travaris Cadet (toe), T Tony Hills (abdomen), RB Mark Ingram (concussion), C Senio Kelemete (triceps), S Shiloh Keo (neck), G Tim Lelito (calf), DE David Onyemata (knee)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK JETS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Out: WR Matt Slater (foot)
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle, shoulder), QB Tom Brady (knee), WR Julian Edelman (foot), TE Rob Gronkowski (chest), WR Chris Hogan (back), CB Cyrus Jones (illness)
NEW YORK JETS
--Out: CB Nick Marshall (ankle), CB Marcus Williams (ankle)
--Questionable: C Nick Mangold (ankle), DT Steve McLendon (hamstring)

NEW YORK GIANTS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
NEW YORK GIANTS
--Out: C Brett Jones (calf), T Marshall Newhouse (knee), G Justin Pugh (knee)
--Questionable: RB Orleans Darkwa (lower leg), G Adam Gettis (calf), WR Roger Lewis (concussion), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (knee)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
--Out: QB Cody Kessler (concussion)
--Questionable: S Ed Reynolds (knee), CB Tramon Williams (knee)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at HOUSTON TEXANS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
--Out: LB Jatavis Brown (knee), TE Asante Cleveland (concussion, knee), CB Brandon Flowers (concussion)
--Questionable: WR Travis Benjamin (knee), WR Jeremy Butler (ankle), LB Tourek Williams (hamstring)
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Out: RB Alfred Blue (calf), RB Tyler Ervin (ribs), LB John Simon (chest), WR Jaelen Strong (ankle)
--Questionable: RB Jay Prosch (hamstring)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
--Questionable: DT Quinton Dial (knee, neck), LB Aaron Lynch (ankle), WR Torrey Smith (shoulder), CB Jimmie Ward (concussion)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: C Mike Pouncey (hip)
--Doubtful: T Branden Albert (wrist), CB Xavien Howard (knee)
--Questionable: RB Kenyan Drake (knee), LB Jelani Jenkins (knee, hand), WR Jarvis Landry (shoulder), LB Spencer Paysinger (neck), WR Kenny Stills (calf), DT Ndamukong Suh (knee), T Laremy Tunsil (shoulder), DE Mario Williams (ankle)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Out: DE Michael Bennett (knee), LB Brock Coyle (foot), RB Troymaine Pope (ankle), RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder)
--Doubtful: S Earl Thomas (hamstring)
--Questionable: C Justin Britt (ankle), WR Tanner McEvoy (toe), DE Damontre Moore (foot), CB DeShawn Shead (hamstring)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
--Out: C Evan Smith (knee)
--Questionable: CB Brent Grimes (quadricep), RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot), TE Luke Stocker (ankle), CB Alterraun Verner (not injury related)

TENNESSEE TITANS at CHICAGO BEARS
TENNESSEE TITANS
--Out: TE Phillip Supernaw (concussion)
--Questionable: S Daimion Stafford (hamstring)
CHICAGO BEARS
--Out: LB Leonard Floyd (concussion)
--Doubtful: QB Jay Cutler (right shoulder), G Josh Sitton (ankle)
--Questionable: CB Deiondre' Hall (ankle), LB Christian Jones (ankle, back), WR Eddie Royal (toe), DE Mitch Unrein (back)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at DENVER BRONCOS on Sunday night
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
--Out: LB Dee Ford (hamstring), DE Jaye Howard (hip), WR Jeremy Maclin (groin)
--Questionable: LB Derrick Johnson (Achilles), CB Steven Nelson (neck), CB Marcus Peters (hip), DT Dontari Poe (back), DE Kendall Reyes (knee)
DENVER BRONCOS
--Out: LS Casey Kreiter (calf)


GREEN BAY PACKERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES on Monday night
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: LB Kyler Fackrell (hamstring), cornerback Demetri Goodson (knee), G T.J. Lang (foot), LB Blake Martinez (knee)
--Questionable: CB Damarious Randall (groin), LB Jake Ryan (ankle)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
--Out: RB Ryan Mathews (knee), RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto

If you’ve been blindly betting the Cowboys (9-0-1 ATS) and the Patriots (8-2 ATS), and blindly fading the Browns (2-9 ATS) and the 49ers (2-8 ATS) this NFL season, you’ve cashed tickets at a stout 34-6-1 clip.

“What’s been hurting us the most is the Cowboys and Patriots covering every week and the Browns and the Niners failing to cover,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology.

“Free money (for bettors). Just bet against the Niners and the Browns,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., said of the tough day for his book on Sunday.

Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said public action on the Cowboys has picked up in recent weeks. “They bet against them at Green Bay (in Week 6), but since that game they’ve been betting them religiously,” he said of the gamblers at his shop.

The Cowboys, who have covered every spread since pushing against the Giants in Week 1, take their traditional featured spot on Thanksgiving Day next week, opening as solid home favorites against the Redskins.

Here’s a look at the opening betting lines for the entire Week 12 slate, with more insight from Bogdanovich, Simbal and Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books noted as well.


Sunday, Nov. 27

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (-1)

The Texans are a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season, so the opportunity to play them as such a short favorite (better yet, at pick ‘em at CG) has to entice some bettors. But most bettors are not buying Brock Osweiler. Plus, this looks like a good spot for the Chargers, coming off a bye and facing a Houston team that has to play the Raiders on Monday night in Mexico.

“(Bettors) love playing teams off a bye because 1) you can get healthy and 2) you can game plan, and the other team is coming off a short week and a weird environment, Mexico,” Bogdanovich said.

He added of next week’s line, “One thing for sure with San Diego is it’s going to be close at the end, so anything near a pick ‘em with San Diego blindly is right.”

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

This spread ranged from Chicago -1 to -2 around Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Westgate hung Buffalo -6.5 but moved to -7 after a few minutes of wagering, and that’s where the rest of town opened the game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

CG moved from Baltimore -3 to -3 (-120) after a limit-bet on the favorite, Simbal said, while William Hill moved from -3.5 to -3 (-120).

To some, the outlook looks bleak in Cincinnati, and the loss of A.J. Green (hamstring) isn’t helping matters.

“He’s huge, he’s their only weapon, and they’re another team spiraling out of control,” Bogdanovich said. “They’re a mess. They’re a run-first team, but they aren’t running the ball and now their only big playmaker is gone. They left three good years on the table where they should have advanced in the playoffs. Sometimes that window closes, and this window is closing. I see Marvin Lewis getting fired. I think Cincinnati is a disaster, and they’re definitely a play-against team the rest of the way.”

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

This line ranged from 3.5 at the Wynn to 4.5 at the William Hill. While his shop opened at the high end of the market, Bogdanovich pointed out that Arizona, statistics-wise, has been the better team even in some of its losses.

“Arizona’s a weird story,” Bogdanovich said. “They completely dominated a good Seattle team, and (Sunday) they completed dominated (the Vikings), but they keep shooting themselves in the foot with catastrophic plays. You can’t fade 100-yard interception returns and 100-yard kickoff returns. You look at the box score and you’d bet your kidney and your lungs on Arizona at pick ‘em.”

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-8)

While some books were dealing Miami -7.5 on Sunday night, the Westgate and William Hill both opened -8.5 and moved to -8.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

GC opened New Orleans -6 before a move to -6.5 a few hours later, while the Saints opened -7 elsewhere. This will be Jared Goff’s first start on the road in the NFL. Based on Sunday’s home game vs. the Dolphins, Goff’s first NFL start, Bogdanovich doesn’t see much difference between the rookie and Case Keenum.

“About the same,” Bogdanovich said. “(Goff) didn’t do a whole hell of a lot (Sunday). They weren’t going to let him do a whole hell of a lot. They led the entire game, and they never got aggressive or tried to put it up or tried to press. They thought 10 would be enough. I know one thing: the defensive players for the Rams gotta be sick. They wasted these two, three years of good defenses with horrific offenses.”

New York Giants (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

There was a mix of 6.5 and -7 (even) for this one, and it’s fair to wonder if sharp money is going to keep chasing Cleveland. When it comes to the Browns this season, the public has gotten the better of the sharps.

“The Cleveland numbers get so inflated that you usually get wiseguys playing back on Cleveland, which we had a lot of (Sunday vs. Pittsburgh), but the public goes against Cleveland like clockwork,” Salmons said.

Meanwhile, the Giants have won five straight, but Salmons is not yet convinced.

“I don’t think much of the Giants,” he said. “They beat Cincinnati by 1 last week, they were lucky to beat the Bears (Sunday). They’re winning, but I don’t think much of the Giants.”

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Simbal said while Seattle has become a hot bet-on team for his customers, his shop took a wiseguy play on Tampa Bay +6. Simbal’s team didn’t move the number, though, with plenty of Seahawks money expected to show up.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-4)

The Westgate opened Oakland -4.5 and moved to -4, while CG was dealing -3.5 on Sunday night. Two factors could influence how this line moves: the way the Raiders perform Monday night against the Texans in Mexico and the status of Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is in concussion protocol.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5/-120)

CG originally hung 4 on this AFC West showdown that has been flexed into NBC’s prime-time slot, but that number didn’t last long, and Denver -3.5 (-120) was the most prevalent line Sunday night in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots (-9) at New York Jets

As the Westgate, New England grew from a 7.5- to an 8.5-point road favorite at its division rival, but that number was still on the low end of the market, as most shops were dealing -9. The Pats are 1-6 ATS in their last six trips to the Jets as favorites.

Monday, Nov. 28

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Week 12 Monday nighter doesn’t look nearly as sexy as it did earlier this season. Green Bay has lost five of its last six games; Philly has lost five of seven.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 12 opening line report: Thanksgiving week brings critical matchups
By PATRICK EVERSON

One thing NFL fans and bettors can be thankful for this week: three games on Thanksgiving Day, back-to-back-to-back. Happy Thanksgiving, indeed! We check in with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor, on a few of the Week 12 opening lines, including on a pair of key Turkey Day contests.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

The AFC West is a three-team logjam, with defending Super Bowl champion Denver just trying to keep pace with both Kansas City and Oakland. The Broncos (7-3 SU and ATS) should be well-rested for this Sunday night contest, coming off their bye week after a stunning win at New Orleans, where Denver – a 3-point ‘dog – returned a block extra point to account for the final score of 25-23.

The Chiefs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off arguably an equally stunning loss. Kansas City was a 7-point home chalk Sunday against Tampa Bay, but ended up losing 19-17. Bad loss aside, Childs is still looking forward to this division showdown.

“Thank God this game got flexed into the prime-time Sunday night game, or we’d be stuck with the Patriots-Jets game, which would have been bad for betting action,” Childs said. “The Broncos are coming off a bye, and I have a feeling the extra prep time is going to help them immensely, especially on offense, where they’ve been struggling recently. The Chiefs are off an awful loss to the lowly Bucs, at home no less.

“It’s a monster game, with both wild-card and divisional implications. The loser will be fighting an uphill battle for the AFC West.”

We opted to open Denver at -3.5 in the Mile High City.

“The Broncos always play well at home, so we had to make them at least a 3-point favorite,” Childs said. “We added a hook, thinking bettors were going to be turned off on the Chiefs after their latest effort, or lack thereof. So far, we’ve seen good two-way action at 3.5, so I don’t see this number moving all that much.”

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Two teams fighting to stay relevant in the 2016 season wrap up Week 12 by playing on “Monday Night Football.” Green Bay’s position is surely the bigger surprise, as it dropped to 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS after a 42-24 loss at Washington catching 3 points in the Sunday nighter.

Philadelphia got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but is 2-5 SU and ATS since then. On Sunday, the Eagles (5-5 SU and ATS) lost 26-15 at Seattle getting 6.5 points.

“The Packers suffered a devastating loss that could seal their fate for missing the playoffs. They also suffered a bunch of injuries, which is very troubling for a team that was already beat up on both sides of the ball,” said Childs, noting that with Green Bay playing late Sunday, the opening line had to wait. “My initial number prior to the Sunday night game was Eagles -2. Now, I see us opening (Monday) at least 3 and maybe more.”

And we did exactly that by opening the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites for this Monday night matchup. Part of the calculus is the Packers remaining on the road this week.

“They’re a beat-up and demoralized team traveling for the third straight week,” Childs said. “I can’t see them coming up with much of an effort, and the Eagles have been money in the bank at home (4-0 SU and ATS).”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45.5)

Bills' rag-tag receiving corps vs. Jaguars' suffocating secondary

The Bills are a healthy favorite in this Week 12 encounter, and with good reason: Buffalo has forged its way to a .500 record despite dealing with major injury woes, particularly within its receiving corps. Couple that with a Jacksonville offense that has bumbled its way to a likely high draft next spring, and it's easy to see why the Bills are expected to win comfortably. But the Jaguars have a significant advantage in one area that could result in this game being closer than expected.

With Sammy Watkins returning to practice but still a major question mark to suit up this week, quarterback Tyrod Taylor is left with middling options Robert Woods, Marqise Goodwin and recently resurrected Percy Harvin. Woods (75.8) is the only one of the three with a decent Pro Football Focus Grade - and even if you throw in tight end Charles Clay (63.1), there isn't much room for optimism when it comes to the Buffalo passing game.

Things look even worse when you consider the potency of the Jacksonville pass defense, which has been the team's biggest strength through 10 mostly terrible games. Two of the team's three primary cornerbacks boast grades above 80, while linebackers Telvin Smith (79.5) and Paul Posluszny (85.0) have also been sensational. Add FS Tashaun Gipson (76.6) and SS Jonathan Cyprien (86.1) into the equation, and it could be a long, challenging day for Taylor and the Bills' receiving corps.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Tyrod Taylor

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (+7, 44.5)

Giants' improved pass rush vs. Browns' non-existent protection

The Giants spent tens of millions of dollars in the offseason looking to improve a defense that underwhelmed significantly last season. And after New York opened the season with one of the worst pash-rushing units in the league, fans were understandably concerned. But the Giants have looked impressive at getting to the quarterback over the last month-plus, and should be able to continue their hot streak against the Browns' "pass protection".

The New York secondary has been solid at defending the pass; the Giants are one of only eight teams entering Week 12 with double-digit interceptions. But it has been its ability to harass the quarterback that has played a major role in the team reeling off five consecutive victories. New York has racked up 14 of its 18 sacks over the course of the winning streak, recording multiple sacks in all five games. And while the Giants still have the worst road sack rate in the NFL, that should change this week.

In addition to being the only remaining winless team in the league, the Browns rank near the bottom of the NFL in too many categories to count. Among them, Cleveland has the worst sack rate at 8.7 percent; Indianapolis is the only other team to exceed eight percent. That mark climbs to an absurd 13.9 percent over the last three games - and that downward trend, combined with the Giants' vastly improved pass rush, bodes very poorly for whoever starts under center on Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Giants D/ST

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43)

Titans' elite offensive line vs. Bears' underwhelming defense

By now, you're well aware of how the Tennessee Titans have shamed all of the analysts who suggested in the preseason that the team's only way of producing offense would be through its "exotic smashmouth" strategy. Yes, the Titans' robust rush attack has been as advertised, but the team also ranks ninth in passing yards - a credit to quarterback Marcus Mariota, sure, but also to one of the best and most underrated offensive lines in football.

The Tennessee O-line boasts an impressive group of players that have performed at a high level for most of the season. Four of the five starting linemen boast Pro Football Focus ratings of 82 or higher, led by LT Taylor Lewan (87.3) and rookie R Jack Conklin (86.2). Their efforts have gone a long way in keeping Mariota upright; he has been sacked just 18 times this season, the seventh-lowest total in the league. TE Delanie Walker (81.8) has also been sensational in pass protection.

The Bears' defense has been better than advertised, but is still likely to be overmatched this weekend. Chicago has hauled in just five interceptions and, while ranking an admirable 10th in sacks (24), faces serious mismatches at both outside linebacker positions and at two of the three cornerback slots. Add in a pitiful 43.9 PFF grade for starting RE Jonathan Bullard, and Mariota should once again have clean pockets and plenty of time to pick the opposing defense apart.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Marcus Mariota

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 45)

Seahawks ToP problems vs. Buccaneers' brilliant ball control

The Seahawks are one of the few NFC teams that has looked mostly good this season, a testament to its perpetually solid defense and in-season improvements - both from a health and talent perspective - from QB Russell Wilson. But while the Seahawks go into their Week 12 showdown with the Buccaneers as a healthy favorite, Tampa Bay has been one of the better clock control teams in the league - something Seattle certainly can't say.

The Buccaneers enter Sunday ranked fifth in the NFL in average time of possession at 31:26, a rate that climbs to 32:59 over the previous three games. And as with the majority of teams who boast strong ToP numbers, Tampa Bay has done it by extending drives better than most of the league. The Buccaneers are tied for seventh in average first downs per game (22.3), and their third-down conversion percentage (45.07) is also good for seventh overall.

The Seahawks aren't that close in any of the three categories listed above. Seattle ranks 26th in the league at 28:30 per game, a rate that dips to 26:20 over the previous three games. The Seahawks' average first downs per contest (18.5, T-27th) and third-down conversion rate (37.3 percent, 21st) also pale in comparison. All that extra possession time for Tampa Bay could mean a much closer game - or even a Buccaneers victory.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Mike Evans

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 12 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4)

Can things get any worse for the Bengals? This past Sunday’s loss to the Bills (at home) might have just about ended their season. Cincy is now 3-6-1, and while that’s not too deep a hole in an AFC North Division co-led by the Steelers and Ravens at 5-5, Marvin Lewis has more than his share of problems with the team’s best player (A.J. Green) possibly lost for the season with a hamstring injury, and running back Giovani Bernard (ACL) definitely cooked for 2016.

The injury news moved the line from Baltimore -3 (almost all AFC North games not involving the Browns are field goal lines) to Ravens -4.

Given the Bengals’ historical inability to deal with adversity, even 4 might be a bargain.

Game to wait on

New England at New York Jets (+8.5)

Looks like a wasted year for the Jets, who are rumored to be getting set to release CB Darrelle Revis after the season. Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty. Problem is, everyone knows Petty is nowhere near ready, and inserting him into the lineup would give a loud and clear signal that the head coach of the NYJ is cashing it in this year.

Complicating matters is that New England is next on the schedule after New York’s bye, and the Pats feast on inexperienced quarterbacks because of their intricate defensive schemes.

Best wait on this one until it’s clear who the Jets will use at QB.

Note: Head coach Todd Bowles announced Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback for Week 12. Good thing you waited Jets bettors because the line is now down to +7.5.

Total to watch

Seattle at Tampa Bay (44.5)

On the surface there appears to be nothing special here. Seattle is 5-5 on the over, and Tampa Bay games have covered the O/U number 6 times in 10 games. But there’s a little more to it. The Seahawks have found their offense and have averaged nearly 30 points a game since the calendar turned to November. Russell Wilson is playing with great confidence.

And don’t be fooled by the Buccaneers’ scoring less than 20 in a win over Kansas City on Sunday. Prior to that their games had gone over four straight times. In home games the Bucs average nearly 26 ppg.

This game was bet down half a point in early wagering, making it tempting for a hard look at the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Urban Meyer as the next coach of the Cincinnati Bengals.

No, I'm not breaking news here, but it's a theory I have. Bear with me a minute. The Bengals were probably the biggest losers of Week 11. I actually didn't like them as 2.5-point home favorites against Buffalo because the Bills were coming off their bye and Cincinnati was on a short week after losing at the Giants last Monday night. It also didn't look like Bengals star receiver A.J. Green was all that healthy against New York.

Buffalo won the game 16-12 to drop the Bengals to 3-6-1. They have made the playoffs a franchise-record five straight years but lost in the wild-card round in each of them. Thus, many thought Coach Marvin Lewis had to get a postseason win to keep his job for 2017. But there's almost no route to the playoffs now because Cincinnati also lost Green to a reported torn hamstring in the loss and running back Gio Bernard to a torn ACL. The latter is done for the year, and almost surely Green is.

The Bengals already were pretty weak at receiver after losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu this offseason in free agency. Now Andy Dalton has no receiver to stretch a defense. Green had been targeted 100 times and had 66 catches for 964 yards and four touchdowns. The Bengals are 3-0-1 this year when he has 100 yards in a game. In losses, he had combined for 27 catches, 321 yards and one touchdown. In the second half without Green vs. the Buffalo, the offense produced a single first down in its first five drives and didn't score at all. Bernard is the No. 2 back behind Jeremy Hill but had rushed for 337 yards and two scores while catching 39 passes for 336 yards and a TD. I'll also be surprised if kicker Mike Nugent is still on the roster by this Sunday. He missed two extra points on Sunday, part of an NFL-record 12 missed around the league.

So how might Meyer fit into all this? If the Bengals dump Lewis, which I think they will, don't you have to call Meyer? He wouldn't even have to move from Columbus as it's only about 100 miles from Cincinnati. While Meyer had some health and stress-related problems while at Florida, it's actually easier to coach in the NFL in that you don't have to be out recruiting all the time. I'm not saying Meyer would love Ohio State, but I'm at least finding out if I'm Bengals ownership as he's an Ohio native. Cincinnati is -4 this Sunday at Baltimore.

Here are some Week 12 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday night's game (Steelers-Colts), Sunday's marquee matchup (Chiefs-Broncos) or the Monday night game (Packers-Eagles). There are no teams on the bye as it's a showcase week with the Thanksgiving holiday.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7, 45.5): Buffalo top running back LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb against Cincinnati but already had surgery for it and expects to play Sunday. Tough dude. The news isn't good on current No. 1 receiver Robert Woods, who left with a knee sprain and is likely to miss a little while. Usual No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins is eligible to be activated from injured reserve on Friday and could play in Sunday's game. But he hasn't practiced yet, so that's not real likely. Jags quarterback Blake Bortles hurt his shoulder in Sunday's loss in Detroit but is expected to play. The pick: Bills and "under."

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 50.5): Will Cardinals coach and offensive play-caller Bruce Arians be on the sideline? He was hospitalized on Monday with chest pains. If you've seen Arians, he's not exactly the fit dude. He was also rushed to a hospital before a preseason game against the Chargers for something different. All tests have come back good, but it's still too early to tell if Arians will be there. The Cards are hoping to get safety Tyrann Mathieu back this week and they will need him against that Atlanta offense. Mathieu has been out since Oct. 30 with a shoulder injury. The Falcons are off their bye week. Their lead in the NFC South is down to a game over Tampa Bay. The pick: Falcons and "over."

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9, 47): The Jets, coming out of their bye week, are the biggest opening dogs on the board. They have named Ryan Fitzpatrick as this week's starting quarterback over Bryce Petty, who started Week 10 against the Rams and didn't do much with Fitz dealing with a minor knee injury. It really makes no sense to start Fitz here because he's not going to be back next year and the Jets are already dead in the water at 3-7. But coach Todd Bowles is concerned that going with the Petty would cause the rest of the team to quit on what remains of the season. It remains to be seen if New England will have Rob Gronkowski after he missed Sunday's win in San Francisco with a chest/lung injury. The Jets played the Pats very well last year in losing both games. I think this is too many points to give. The pick: Jets and under.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (+7, 44.5): Ah the Browns. They actually allowed a season-low 24 points on Sunday at home to Pittsburgh but still lost by 15. The Steelers scored eight points with zeroes showing on the clock before halftime after they were awarded two extra plays because of defensive penalties against the Browns. If that's not typical Browns, I don't know what is. The Browns have now lost 14 in a row overall and 29 of their past 32 games. It is also the first time since the team joined the NFL in 1950 that its overall record has fallen below .500 (461-462-10). Cleveland lost rookie starting QB Cody Kessler to his second concussion of the season and now might simply shut him down. Josh McCown already has been named the starter against New York. The Giants have won five straight but can't make up any ground on Dallas in the NFC East. This could be a bit of a trap game with matchups in Pittsburgh and vs. the Cowboys the following two weeks. The pick: Giants at this number but if I can get double-digits by Sunday I'd take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 12 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 12:

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 41)

We’re not quite sure why the line is so low. We like the home favorites and recommend to take this one as early as you can. I made this line closer to -6 to -6.5, largely based on two factors.

First, the Bengals are playing awful football right now, (1-4 on the road). And second, they’re suffering a slew of injuries that will make this highly improbable that they can handle a physical team like the Ravens.

I also think Baltimore will have something to prove after its loss to Dallas this past weekend. Between these two teams, who both suffered losses in week 11, it seems more likely that Baltimore will bounce back with a nice game than an undermanned and underperforming Cincinnati team suddenly finding success on the road.

Despite Cincinnati’s woes, it is just one game in the loss column behind first place Baltimore. We fully expect Baltimore to know the significance of this game and follow the pattern of beating its divisional foe, as the Ravens have done in their past two home games. This is a classic example of sticking with the winners and playing against the losers. Get his one early and enjoy the leftover turkey.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 44.5)

We always like to ride a good streak and we have a good one with Seattle. This line opened offshore at -4.5 and doesn’t appear it will stop at its current level. We definitely recommend to take this as early as you can expect this line to rise come Sunday.

Tampa Bay surprised against Kansas City this past week but we are banking that its home record speaks for itself. Despite their first win against lowly Chicago, the Bucs have suffered losses with margins of five, 20, six and 15 at home to lesser teams than Seattle. Their two wins the past two weeks probably caused the oddsmakers to push a lower number from the get-go, but wise money came quick on the road favorites and it will keep coming through Sunday.

The Seahawks are 6-1-1 in their past eight games and are rolling on offense (88 points in their last three). They’ll aim to be the physical force defensively that they’re best known for. There are only four teams in the NFC who have given up more points than Tampa Bay and we expect Seattle to exploit that come game time. Take the road favorite, take them early and eat something else besides turkey now that the weekend is almost over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 12

Week 11 was not a great week for large NFL underdogs to win outright as only one of the eight teams getting four points or more managed to come away with a victory. If you had followed along with my top three selections though in last week's piece, you would have hit that one winner as the Buccaneers were able to beat a Kansas City team that still looks a lot more like “pretenders” than “contenders.”

Week 12 has plenty of teams getting four points or more on the spread so rather than go through the entire list, I'm going to break it down a bit into those teams getting +4 to +6.5, and those getting +7 or more.

Week 12 Underdogs That Qualify

Chicago Bears (+5); ML (+195)
Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); ML (+185)
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5); ML (+177)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6); ML (+230)
Green Bay Packers (+4); ML (+165)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5); ML (+275)
San Francisco 49ers (+8); ML (+280)
LA Rams (+7); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+260)

We will start with the bigger underdogs in LA, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Jacksonville as there is only really one team you can consider for an outright win and that's the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags let me down last week when they came up short, and they've let down plenty of NFL bettors who had high hopes for this team this season.

But Buffalo isn't exactly a spectacular group themselves and laying over a touchdown against Jacksonville is a little absurd. One day the Jaguars will finally learn out to put together a full 60 minute performance and close out victories and finishing strong down the stretch has to be their goal for building into next season.

There are some reports that HC Gus Bradley has “lost” the team and there is simply no motivation from the Jaguars players, but at some point professional pride has to kick in. If Jacksonville can find that pride this week and pair it with some solid, sustained execution, there is no reason to think they can't come out of Buffalo with an outright victory.

As far as the other teams on the list go, we've got numerous sides that entered the 2016 season as solid favorites to compete for a Super Bowl, only to have the year go awry for one reason or another.

Cincinnati, Arizona, and Green Bay all received plenty of support to make a championship run this season and at the moment, it looks like only the Packers have an outside shot of even making the playoffs.

All three are likely to get a fair share of ML support from bettors this week at these underdog odds, but of the three, I'd only be comfortable in taking Green Bay on the ML.

Green Bay is in Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that has started to come back down to earth. For as bad as the Packers have been defensively thanks to a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball, Philly isn't going to be able to put up a plethora of points against them like recent opponents have.

Also, while Philly is a much better team at home with wins over the likes of Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Atlanta already, this was still an Eagles team that had a season win total in the 6 to 6.5 range and will continue to play to that projected standard.

Aaron Rodgers and company know they've got to get it going now if they want any hope of making the playoffs and as long as their defense can hold on even a little bit, the Packers at +165 on the ML does have some value.

As far as the Bears and Buccaneers go, Chicago just lost QB Jay Cutler for the year and you wonder about the fallout from that. Brian Hoyer isn't a huge downgrade in that regard and the Titans aren't great, so the Bears do have a chance if they don't let losing Cutler for the year affect them much.

I'm not sure how they would given that they are 2-8 SU and things couldn't get much worse, but with Seattle in Tampa to play the Bucs, the Bears would definitely be the better ML option of the two teams.

There is no question that we will see at least a couple of these NFL underdogs on this list pull off upsets this week, but if you are looking to narrow it down somewhat, keep the Bears (+195), Packers (+165), and Jaguars (+275) on the short list.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
By Micah Roberts

There's a lot Thanksgiving leftovers in Las Vegas, but not the kind the sports books like.

Thursday's three NFL games put the books in a hole for one of the most volatile weekends of the year where carryover risk daisy-chains into Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then finally concludes with a big firecracker on Monday night. The ideal Thanksgiving for the books is to bank enough money Thursday to offset some of that eventual risk that will morph into big payouts.

"Teasers killed us yesterday," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I shouldn't say killed, but we lost on the day due to them."

If you bet all sides on the Thursday teaser, you went 5-1 with the Colts being the only side that failed. If you bet all sides of the teaser, including the total, in the Redskins-Cowboys game, you went 4-0. Fortunately for the books the popular Cowboys (-5.5) barely failed to cover the number which slowed parlay risk. But the bad news for all the books was that everyone reloaded with the Steelers (-8) in the nightcap, and many of those parlay and teaser tickets are still alive heading into the weekend.

Sunday's Week 12 games aren't the most attractive, but they'll still be wagered on heavily just because that's what we do, right? Andrews took some time out of his busy Friday afternoon to review where the South Point's heaviest risk is at with more than 85 percent of the action still to come over the next three days.

"We've seen lots of Titans action with all the questions about Chicago's quarterback," said Andrews. "The line has been driven up from -2.5 to -4.5."

Bears QB Jay Cutler is 'out' for the game and back-up Matt Barkley will start, which is part of the reason so many love Tennessee laying points on the road this week.

"We've had strong opinions and heavy action on both sides of the Cardinals and Falcons (-5) game," Andrews said showing that people still believe in the Cardinals after not covering their past three games. But the high scoring Falcons have covered just once in their last four.

"The Saints are one of those games that the wise guys and public are both on. Wise guys bet it from -7 to -7.5, and the public has been betting it ever since. It's going to be a huge game for us, and I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, Fisher will open it up a little more and give Goff a chance to do something on offense."

The Rams defense and the conservative offense has helped their last four games stay 'under' while the Saints have gone 8-2-1 to the 'over' in their last 11 home games. The total is sitting at 45.5, the only total lower than 50 offered at New Orleans this season.

"The public loves the Giants, but the sharps are on the Browns making us go from -7 to -6.5," said Andrews. "Still, this is a huge teaser game for us; the parlay's and money-line are high too with the Giants."

The teaser effect from Thanksgiving leftovers is making a few of these games stand out like sore thumbs for the books.

"We got a little wise-guy play on the Seahawks (-6 at Tampa Bay), and also a lot of teaser play with them. We're going to need a few upsets on the day to help us with these live teasers."

The best game of the day on paper looks to be an AFC West battle for second-place with Kansas City traveling to Denver for the Sunday night game.

"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos (-3.5)," Andrews said, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day so far."

Despite such an early sample size of action, the most one-sided bet game with ticket counts is, of course, on the Patriots.

"Wise guys are on the Jets (+7.5), but again the public is all over the Patriots."

Andrews can take at least some comfort in knowing Rob Gronkowski is 'doubtful' and that the Jets have gone 5-0-1 ATS against the Patriots the past three seasons.