Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services
11/23: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
Cold weather in Foxboro and a weak Lions offensive line runs into a talented Pats defense. Detroit can play great defense, tops in the NFL, so look for a conservative game of field goals instead of the Stafford/Brady shootout many expect.
Play the Lions/Pats under the total.
11/23: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
Cold weather in Foxboro and a weak Lions offensive line runs into a talented Pats defense. Detroit can play great defense, tops in the NFL, so look for a conservative game of field goals instead of the Stafford/Brady shootout many expect.
Play the Lions/Pats under the total.
Mr. Vegas
Free Sunday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/23 9:35 PM ET
(509) DENVER NUGGETS VS (510) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: over the Total
The Lakers may be pretty bad this year at just 3-10, but you can't say their games don't have a lot of points. Of the 13 games by the Lakers this season, nine have gone OVER the total. In fact, the Lakers have a decent pace factor (possessions per 48 minutes) with a 94.3 overall and a 95.7 at home (league avg is 92.5). Only two of the Lakers last 11 games have they failed to score over 100 points. However, same can be said for the defense as they have held just three opponents in 13 games to under 100 points. The Mavericks really laid a licking on the Lakers last time out, scoring 140 points against LA. It was the second time in four games that an opponent has scored 130 or more against them. Denver can also score, evidenced by their 100 or more points in three straight and nine of the last 10 games. But, like the Lakers, they give them up in bunches too. They also have allowed two opponents to score 130 or more points against them this season. Denver also has a fast pace, 95.6 overall and 96.2 on the road. they also have very good efficiency ratings (points per possession) with a 114.7 overall (league avg is 107.3). Don't expect a lot of defense in this one. Take the over.
Free Sunday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/23 9:35 PM ET
(509) DENVER NUGGETS VS (510) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: over the Total
The Lakers may be pretty bad this year at just 3-10, but you can't say their games don't have a lot of points. Of the 13 games by the Lakers this season, nine have gone OVER the total. In fact, the Lakers have a decent pace factor (possessions per 48 minutes) with a 94.3 overall and a 95.7 at home (league avg is 92.5). Only two of the Lakers last 11 games have they failed to score over 100 points. However, same can be said for the defense as they have held just three opponents in 13 games to under 100 points. The Mavericks really laid a licking on the Lakers last time out, scoring 140 points against LA. It was the second time in four games that an opponent has scored 130 or more against them. Denver can also score, evidenced by their 100 or more points in three straight and nine of the last 10 games. But, like the Lakers, they give them up in bunches too. They also have allowed two opponents to score 130 or more points against them this season. Denver also has a fast pace, 95.6 overall and 96.2 on the road. they also have very good efficiency ratings (points per possession) with a 114.7 overall (league avg is 107.3). Don't expect a lot of defense in this one. Take the over.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM NFL
(261) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (262) HOUSTON TEXANS
Take: (262) HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5
If you can figure out the Bengals, congratulations. They’re as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets this season, which basically explains to a large extent how the Bengals were favored at New England earlier this season and are now dogs at Houston. Granted, the Patriots were struggling at the time that game took place, but Cincinnati was also looking like a serious contender at the time. In spite of winning three of their last four, I’m pretty sure most observers don’t consider the Bengals to be anything more than mere pretenders right now.
Regardless, the Bengals are 6-3-1, they’re leading their division and they’re in good shape to make the playoffs. Yet here they are, cast in the underdog role against a 5-5 Houston entry and whose wins are against the Redskins, Raiders, Bills, Titans and Browns. In other words, zero wins against a team that currently would own a playoff position.
Maybe the oddsmakers are seeing the Texans like I am, however. It’s as small a sample as it gets, but Houston looked like a totally different team last week with Ryan Mallett stepping under center in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s just perception on my part, but I thought I saw an energized team playing with confidence last week. They won impressively at Cleveland and I’m counting on that momentum rolling into today’s game.
Make no mistake, this is no cinch. The Bengals have lost just twice when AJ Green plays and they’re very good when they’re right. But I also feel as though Andy Dalton can be dominated by good defenses, and that’s really the key here. The Houston defense is capable of containing opposing offenses and we all know that Dalton is not exactly Mr. Consistency.
In terms of data, this is very close. I utilize a couple of formulas to come up with NFL lines, and while I’ll admit these are not all that reliable during the first half of the season, they generally do quite well late. Both sets have Houston winning, albeit by extremely slim margins. Thus, if we’re talking value, there is none to be had here as Houston is indeed the small favorite.
My take is more on the feel I’m getting with Mallett now the QB for the Texans. If he bounces off the impressive debut, so be it, and I’ll probably lose this play. But if Mallett can build on that performance, or just manage to maintain, I like the home team’s chances. I think this could be one of the better games on the Sunday NFL slate, and my money will be on the Texans to emerge with the win and cover.
Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM NFL
(261) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (262) HOUSTON TEXANS
Take: (262) HOUSTON TEXANS -1.5
If you can figure out the Bengals, congratulations. They’re as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets this season, which basically explains to a large extent how the Bengals were favored at New England earlier this season and are now dogs at Houston. Granted, the Patriots were struggling at the time that game took place, but Cincinnati was also looking like a serious contender at the time. In spite of winning three of their last four, I’m pretty sure most observers don’t consider the Bengals to be anything more than mere pretenders right now.
Regardless, the Bengals are 6-3-1, they’re leading their division and they’re in good shape to make the playoffs. Yet here they are, cast in the underdog role against a 5-5 Houston entry and whose wins are against the Redskins, Raiders, Bills, Titans and Browns. In other words, zero wins against a team that currently would own a playoff position.
Maybe the oddsmakers are seeing the Texans like I am, however. It’s as small a sample as it gets, but Houston looked like a totally different team last week with Ryan Mallett stepping under center in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s just perception on my part, but I thought I saw an energized team playing with confidence last week. They won impressively at Cleveland and I’m counting on that momentum rolling into today’s game.
Make no mistake, this is no cinch. The Bengals have lost just twice when AJ Green plays and they’re very good when they’re right. But I also feel as though Andy Dalton can be dominated by good defenses, and that’s really the key here. The Houston defense is capable of containing opposing offenses and we all know that Dalton is not exactly Mr. Consistency.
In terms of data, this is very close. I utilize a couple of formulas to come up with NFL lines, and while I’ll admit these are not all that reliable during the first half of the season, they generally do quite well late. Both sets have Houston winning, albeit by extremely slim margins. Thus, if we’re talking value, there is none to be had here as Houston is indeed the small favorite.
My take is more on the feel I’m getting with Mallett now the QB for the Texans. If he bounces off the impressive debut, so be it, and I’ll probably lose this play. But if Mallett can build on that performance, or just manage to maintain, I like the home team’s chances. I think this could be one of the better games on the Sunday NFL slate, and my money will be on the Texans to emerge with the win and cover.
Jim Feist
Comp NBA Pick for Sunday, November 23, 2014: 7:05 PM ET
(507) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (508) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: UNDER the TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 23, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors are out to a great start this season at 9-2. They have also been very good to bettors at 8-3 ATS. But what is surprising is that they are just 4-7 O/U. Well, not really when you look the actual numbers. Yes, this Warriors club is fast paced at 98.5 overall (league avg is 92.5). Pace being possessions per 48 minutes. But it's not just how many actual possessions you get, but what you do with them. That's where offensive and defensive efficiency ratings come in. The Warriors are just above the league avg of 107.3 in offense with a 109.5 ratings. However, they much better than the league in defense with 98.5 ratings. On the road their efficiency drops to 103, but they are even better on defense with a 94.1. What that means is that they are keeping opponents from scoring when they have attempts. At league better than the league average. This is why they are a fast paced team with a better under than over mark. Today they face a Oklahoma City club that is not very good either in pace (88.9) or scoring when they do get the ball (100.5 efficiency). And against a stingy Golden State defense that won't be good for the Thunder. The Warriors have held four opponents to fewer than 90 points this season including last time out against Utah in a 101-88 win. OKC has scored over 90 points just twice in its last five games including a 65 points home output against a similar defense unit in Houston. Don't expect much out of the Thunder here on Sunday. I like this one to go UNDER.
Comp NBA Pick for Sunday, November 23, 2014: 7:05 PM ET
(507) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (508) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: UNDER the TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 23, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Warriors are out to a great start this season at 9-2. They have also been very good to bettors at 8-3 ATS. But what is surprising is that they are just 4-7 O/U. Well, not really when you look the actual numbers. Yes, this Warriors club is fast paced at 98.5 overall (league avg is 92.5). Pace being possessions per 48 minutes. But it's not just how many actual possessions you get, but what you do with them. That's where offensive and defensive efficiency ratings come in. The Warriors are just above the league avg of 107.3 in offense with a 109.5 ratings. However, they much better than the league in defense with 98.5 ratings. On the road their efficiency drops to 103, but they are even better on defense with a 94.1. What that means is that they are keeping opponents from scoring when they have attempts. At league better than the league average. This is why they are a fast paced team with a better under than over mark. Today they face a Oklahoma City club that is not very good either in pace (88.9) or scoring when they do get the ball (100.5 efficiency). And against a stingy Golden State defense that won't be good for the Thunder. The Warriors have held four opponents to fewer than 90 points this season including last time out against Utah in a 101-88 win. OKC has scored over 90 points just twice in its last five games including a 65 points home output against a similar defense unit in Houston. Don't expect much out of the Thunder here on Sunday. I like this one to go UNDER.
Jack Jones
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Miami Dolphins +7
The Denver Broncos (7-3) are a mess right now. They are dealing with injuries to four of their best skill players on offense, leaving Peyton Manning short-handed. Montee Ball (groin) isn’t expected to return until early December, while Julius Thomas (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) are doubtful. Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) is listed as questionable.
It’s no wonder the Broncos scored a season-low seven points in their 7-22 loss to the Rams last week. They lost Thomas to an ankle injury early in the game. Then, Sanders went out with a concussion later on. The Broncos’ offense stalled the rest of the way and could never mount a comeback. Peyton Manning just isn’t the same quarterback without all of these weapons.
Sanders is second on the team in receiving with 67 receptions for 954 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas has 40 catches for 426 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns, so Manning is going to be without his top two red zone targets. Hillman leads the team in rushing with 378 yards and three scores, while also catching 20 balls for 137 yards and a touchdown. This Denver offense is just rather pedestrian without these three guys.
I have been very impressed with Miami this season. It is every bit as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and it has been playing its best football over the last five weeks. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. In fact, they are 5-2 in their last seven games with their only two losses coming to Detroit (16-20) and Green Bay (24-27) by a combined seven points. Both the Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the NFC this year, and they arguably should have beat both, losing on late scores in the closing seconds.
Miami ranks in the top half of the league in total offense at 348.4 yards per game this season under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. However, the defense is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ success. They rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 302.5 yards per game. They are also 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 45.9 yards per contest. That is the sign of an elite team, and one that is fully capable of giving the short-handed Broncos a run for their money.
The Dolphins come into this game on an extra three days’ rest having played last Thursday in a dominant 22-9 home win over the Bills. That extra preparation will be huge for this team as they get ready for Manning and company. The Broncos could be looking ahead to their showdown with the Chiefs next week knowing that first place in the division will be on the line in that game. I just like the Dolphins’ physical and mental state better than that of the Broncos heading into this one.
Denver is 19-41 ATS in its last 60 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better. Miami is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 vs. AFC west opponents. The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver, including 4-0 ATS in the last four road meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Miami Dolphins +7
The Denver Broncos (7-3) are a mess right now. They are dealing with injuries to four of their best skill players on offense, leaving Peyton Manning short-handed. Montee Ball (groin) isn’t expected to return until early December, while Julius Thomas (ankle) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) are doubtful. Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) is listed as questionable.
It’s no wonder the Broncos scored a season-low seven points in their 7-22 loss to the Rams last week. They lost Thomas to an ankle injury early in the game. Then, Sanders went out with a concussion later on. The Broncos’ offense stalled the rest of the way and could never mount a comeback. Peyton Manning just isn’t the same quarterback without all of these weapons.
Sanders is second on the team in receiving with 67 receptions for 954 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas has 40 catches for 426 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns, so Manning is going to be without his top two red zone targets. Hillman leads the team in rushing with 378 yards and three scores, while also catching 20 balls for 137 yards and a touchdown. This Denver offense is just rather pedestrian without these three guys.
I have been very impressed with Miami this season. It is every bit as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and it has been playing its best football over the last five weeks. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. In fact, they are 5-2 in their last seven games with their only two losses coming to Detroit (16-20) and Green Bay (24-27) by a combined seven points. Both the Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the NFC this year, and they arguably should have beat both, losing on late scores in the closing seconds.
Miami ranks in the top half of the league in total offense at 348.4 yards per game this season under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. However, the defense is the biggest reason for the Dolphins’ success. They rank 2nd in the league in total defense, giving up just 302.5 yards per game. They are also 7th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 45.9 yards per contest. That is the sign of an elite team, and one that is fully capable of giving the short-handed Broncos a run for their money.
The Dolphins come into this game on an extra three days’ rest having played last Thursday in a dominant 22-9 home win over the Bills. That extra preparation will be huge for this team as they get ready for Manning and company. The Broncos could be looking ahead to their showdown with the Chiefs next week knowing that first place in the division will be on the line in that game. I just like the Dolphins’ physical and mental state better than that of the Broncos heading into this one.
Denver is 19-41 ATS in its last 60 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better. Miami is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 vs. AFC west opponents. The Dolphins are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Denver, including 4-0 ATS in the last four road meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
Ben Burns
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bonus Play Over 47 or less
Both the Browns and Falcons been profitable "under" teams in recent weeks. This one figures to feature plenty of points though.
While they were designated the home team for the game at London, the Falcons have actually played only three games here at the Georgia Dome this season.
Those games had final combined scores of 71, 70 and 40, an average of greater than 60.
Meanwhile, the Browns' road games have been higher-scoring than their games at home.
If the line stays at 47 or less, consider a play on the Over. (No play if line goes higher.)
Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bonus Play Over 47 or less
Both the Browns and Falcons been profitable "under" teams in recent weeks. This one figures to feature plenty of points though.
While they were designated the home team for the game at London, the Falcons have actually played only three games here at the Georgia Dome this season.
Those games had final combined scores of 71, 70 and 40, an average of greater than 60.
Meanwhile, the Browns' road games have been higher-scoring than their games at home.
If the line stays at 47 or less, consider a play on the Over. (No play if line goes higher.)
Jimmy Boyd
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
NFL Free Pick on Denver Broncos -
It’s hard to not like the Broncos at home coming laying just a touchdown, especially off that embarrassing loss to the Rams. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home this season with all 5 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Adding to this is the fact that all 19 of the Broncos wins at home (19-2) since they acquired Peyton Manning have come by at least 7 points.
Denver has followed up each of their two previous losses this season with blowout wins. They knocked off the Cardinals 41-20 after losing to Seattle and destroyed the Raiders by a near identical score 41-17 after losing to the Patriots. Adding to this is that with Manning the Broncos have followed up each of their last 7 regular season losses with a win the next week by at least 7 points.
The only real concern with Denver in this game is that Julius Thomas is listed as questionable. If Thomas wasn't able to play, it would definitely be a big blow to the Broncos, but they have a number of quality receivers. As long as Manning is on top of his game and you have to expect he will be after last week, Denver’s offense is going to be able to move the football and put up points.
Another thing to take into consideration with this matchup is that Miami hasn’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. While the Dolphins have a 3-2 road record, two of their wins came against two of the worst teams in the league in Jacksonville and Oakland and the other was against the Bears, who have not played well at home. They lost 10-29 at Buffalo in Week 2 and most recently at Detroit 16-20.
Miami has played extremely well defensively and come in with the 2nd ranked pass defense (208.0 ypg), but Denver is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who are allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt and have won these games by an average score of 26.2 to 17.4. The Broncos also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Take Denver!
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
NFL Free Pick on Denver Broncos -
It’s hard to not like the Broncos at home coming laying just a touchdown, especially off that embarrassing loss to the Rams. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home this season with all 5 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Adding to this is the fact that all 19 of the Broncos wins at home (19-2) since they acquired Peyton Manning have come by at least 7 points.
Denver has followed up each of their two previous losses this season with blowout wins. They knocked off the Cardinals 41-20 after losing to Seattle and destroyed the Raiders by a near identical score 41-17 after losing to the Patriots. Adding to this is that with Manning the Broncos have followed up each of their last 7 regular season losses with a win the next week by at least 7 points.
The only real concern with Denver in this game is that Julius Thomas is listed as questionable. If Thomas wasn't able to play, it would definitely be a big blow to the Broncos, but they have a number of quality receivers. As long as Manning is on top of his game and you have to expect he will be after last week, Denver’s offense is going to be able to move the football and put up points.
Another thing to take into consideration with this matchup is that Miami hasn’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. While the Dolphins have a 3-2 road record, two of their wins came against two of the worst teams in the league in Jacksonville and Oakland and the other was against the Bears, who have not played well at home. They lost 10-29 at Buffalo in Week 2 and most recently at Detroit 16-20.
Miami has played extremely well defensively and come in with the 2nd ranked pass defense (208.0 ypg), but Denver is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who are allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt and have won these games by an average score of 26.2 to 17.4. The Broncos also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Take Denver!
Chip Chirimbes
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Chip's FREE NFL Winner Seattle Seahawks 4:05 ET
Seahawks (-) over Cardinals- I love this Arizona club as I advised anyone that would listen to take them at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, after all it is being played in Arizona. But, this game sets up differently as they come off an impressive defensive performance against the Lions allowing only two field goals in their 14-6 win. Seattle meanwhile, at 6-2 has to go some to get into the playoffs and Pete Carroll will have them ready. Expect Marshawn Lynch to add to his league leading nine touchdown runs and with the home team holding a 11-5 ATS advantage I expect the Seahawks to control the ball and the game. Take SEATTLE!
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Chip's FREE NFL Winner Seattle Seahawks 4:05 ET
Seahawks (-) over Cardinals- I love this Arizona club as I advised anyone that would listen to take them at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, after all it is being played in Arizona. But, this game sets up differently as they come off an impressive defensive performance against the Lions allowing only two field goals in their 14-6 win. Seattle meanwhile, at 6-2 has to go some to get into the playoffs and Pete Carroll will have them ready. Expect Marshawn Lynch to add to his league leading nine touchdown runs and with the home team holding a 11-5 ATS advantage I expect the Seahawks to control the ball and the game. Take SEATTLE!
Bill Biles
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bonus Play Philadelphia Eagles -11
The Eagles are coming off a bad loss to the Packers and I see them bouncing back in a huge way. The Titans are coming off a short week, and the Eagles are a tough team to prepare for. The Eagles will get the running game back on track and the Eagles win big in this one.
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bonus Play Philadelphia Eagles -11
The Eagles are coming off a bad loss to the Packers and I see them bouncing back in a huge way. The Titans are coming off a short week, and the Eagles are a tough team to prepare for. The Eagles will get the running game back on track and the Eagles win big in this one.
Steve Janus
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers
Sunday's Free Pick ---San Diego Chargers -5---
The Rams are getting way too much respect off their big win over the Broncos and the public is going to be scared to lay points against this team after watching them upset the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos in their last 5 games. San Diego on the other hand is a strong team that is flying under the radar right now. St Louis followed up each of those upsets against Seattle and San Francisco with awful showing the next week, losing to the Chiefs by 27 and the Cardinals by 17. Look for the Chargers to keep the trend going with a blowout win at home.
System - Road underdogs off an up win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are just 39-74 (34%) ATS since 1983. BET THE CHARGERS -5!
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers
Sunday's Free Pick ---San Diego Chargers -5---
The Rams are getting way too much respect off their big win over the Broncos and the public is going to be scared to lay points against this team after watching them upset the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos in their last 5 games. San Diego on the other hand is a strong team that is flying under the radar right now. St Louis followed up each of those upsets against Seattle and San Francisco with awful showing the next week, losing to the Chiefs by 27 and the Cardinals by 17. Look for the Chargers to keep the trend going with a blowout win at home.
System - Road underdogs off an up win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are just 39-74 (34%) ATS since 1983. BET THE CHARGERS -5!
