Sunday's Top Action
DETROIT LIONS (7-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)
Line & Total: New England -7, Total: 47.5
The Lions look to bounce back from last week’s loss with a tough road trip versus the sizzling-hot Patriots.
Detroit fell 14-6 in Arizona last week, which snapped a four-game winning streak for the team. Meanwhile, New England dominated the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis to win its sixth straight contest (5-1 ATS). These teams have met just three times since 2002, with the Patriots winning all three meetings and covering in two of them.
RB Jonas Gray rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns against Indy last week, but now faces a Lions defense that is allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game. New England, meanwhile, has held two of the best offenses in football (Denver and Indianapolis) to just 20.5 PPG over the past two weeks.
The Patriots are just 12-26 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992, but are also 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in the past two years. They are up against a Detroit team that is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won four of its past five games since 1992.
With both RBs Reggie Bush (ankle) and Joique Bell (ankle) listed as probable for the Lions, the only players considered questionable are a pair of linemen, DE Jason Jones (personal) and OT LaAdrian Waddle (ankle). For New England, the only new injury to report is OL Cameron Fleming, who is questionable after suffering a leg injury last week.
The Lions are head to New England after their offense was non-existent in a loss to the Cardinals. QB Matthew Stafford (2,679 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) really struggled in the game, throwing for just 183 yards with no touchdowns and 1 INT. He is going to need to take better care of the football, as he’s now tossed five interceptions in the past four weeks. A good first step for Stafford would be to get the ball into the hands of WR Calvin Johnson (34 rec, 520 yards, 3 TD). Johnson was targeted 12 times against the Cardinals, but had just five catches for 59 yards.
The Lions will need to run some shorter routes just to get the two on the same page again. RB Joique Bell (442 rush yards, 3 TD) ran extremely well against the Cardinals, gaining 85 yards on just 14 carries (6.1 YPC). He also caught three passes for 30 yards. The Lions will need to do a better job of getting him touches, as he’s been extremely productive with the ball in his hands. They’d also be better suited to run the ball more against a solid Patriots pass defense.
Reggie Bush (191 yards, 1 TD), who has missed three of the past five games, including last week, with injuries, could add some much-needed explosiveness to this team. The Lions defense continues to play well, allowing an NFL-best 15.6 PPG and league-best marks in both rushing defense (68.8 YPG) and yards per carry allowed (3.0).
The Patriots are the hottest team in football and they’ve been winning against some of the league’s elite teams. Rookie RB Jonas Gray (332 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 4 TD) was the story of last game, finding the end zone four times and carving up the Colts’ run defense. He will likely get plenty of touches against the Lions, but their run defense is a whole different animal when compared to Indianapolis’.
QB Tom Brady (2,649 pass yards, 24 TD, 5 INT) threw for 257 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win over the Colts. Brady’s two interceptions were the most he’s had since the Patriots were blown out in Kansas City in Week 4. He should be able to bounce back against the Lions, as he is 2-0 SU against this team in the past five years. In those games, he’s thrown for 323.0 yards per game with four total touchdowns and just one interception.
TE Rob Gronkowski (53 rec, 734 yards, 9 TD) caught four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Colts last Sunday night, giving him five touchdowns over the past three games. He should be targeted early and often against Detroit, as he is a mismatch for any defense when he's healthy.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-4)
Line & Total: Seattle -6.5, Total: 41
The Seahawks look to cool down the Cardinals when the two clash Sunday at CenturyLink Field.
Arizona picked up its sixth straight victory (SU and ATS) by a 14-6 score over the Lions last week, and now face a Seattle team that saw its three-game win streak end with last week's 24-20 loss at Kansas City. The Cardinals actually won last year’s road meeting in this series by a 17-10 score as 8-point road underdogs. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had some problems in that game, throwing for just 108 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.
Arizona has covered in three of its past six trips to CenturyLink Field, but Seattle is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the past 10 games hosting Arizona, which includes a 58-0 laugher in 2012. But the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season and 7-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game over the past two years. Seattle, however, is 8-0 ATS in the past three years as a home favorite of seven points or less.
Arizona star WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) is likely to play in this one, but both teams have key defensive players listed as questionable with Cardinals LB Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and DE Ed Stinson (toe), as well as Seattle LBs Bobby Wagner (toe) and Brock Coyle (gluteus).
The Cardinals have won their six games by an impressive 10.2 PPG margin, and it doesn’t seem to matter who is playing under center. Last week QB Drew Stanton (920 pass yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) threw for 306 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Lions, who are one of the best defenses in the league. He is not as talented as injured QB Carson Palmer (1,626 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT), but he has not backed down from the challenge of being the signal caller for the team with the NFL’s best record.
RB Andre Ellington (624 rush yards, 3 TD) is one guy who will really need to step up his game. Over the past two weeks, Ellington has rushed for just 65 yards on 37 carries (1.8 YPC) and 1 TD. Arizona has done a nice job using him as a receiver out of the backfield, as Ellington ranks third among all NFL running backs with 41 receptions. WR Larry Fitzgerald (46 rec, 658 yards, 2 TD) had just two catches and 33 yards last week, and since he is dealing with a sprained MCL, it could be WR Michael Floyd (26 rec, 454 yards, 4 TD) who takes on a bigger role in this offense. Floyd displayed some serious chemistry with Stanton last game, catching two passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns.
This Arizona defense has been tremendous all season, ranking second in the NFL in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed) and third in rushing defense (80.5 YPG allowed), and has been extremely stingy in the past three weeks with only 12.3 PPG and 257.3 total YPG allowed. The Cardinals will need to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket in this game, as he is a nightmare to contain when he starts running well.
The Seahawks went into Kansas City and fell short of picking up a gigantic road victory. QB Russell Wilson (2,019 pass yards, 13 TD, 5 INT) has really struggled in recent weeks, throwing for less than 200 yards in four straight games now. He has just three touchdowns and three interceptions during that span and Seattle will need him to be more effective as a passer and not just a runner.
RB Marshawn Lynch (813 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the guy who has really kept this team afloat offensively. Lynch carried the football 24 times for 124 yards in the loss to Kansas City and although he didn’t find the end zone, he does have six touchdowns over the past three games. Lynch is also useful as a pass catcher, where he’s caught 24 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns this season.
The Cardinals have one of the best run defenses in football, but Lynch should be able to use his physicality to wear them down throughout the course of the game. WR Doug Baldwin (44 rec, 485 yards, 2 TD) was Wilson’s top target against the Chiefs. He caught six of his nine targets for 45 yards and a touchdown in the game. Seattle will need him to be far more consistent going forward. Defensively, the Seahawks allowed Jamaal Charles to do whatever he wanted last game, allowing the Chiefs back to run for 159 yards on just 20 carries (8.0 YPC). Andre Ellington is a very similar type of runner, so they’d be wise to figure out how to stop a talented outside runner in this one.
For the season, Seattle ranks third in the NFL in total defense (306.1 YPG allowed), third in passing defense (215.3 YPG allowed) and seventh in rushing defense (90.8 YPG allowed). The Seahawks also have multiple takeaways in four straight contests.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-3)
Line & Total: Denver -7, Total: 47.5
The Broncos look to bounce back from miserable loss to the Rams when they host the surging Dolphins on Sunday.
Miami is coming off a dominant 22-9 win at home over the Bills last Thursday, when it held Buffalo to just 237 yards of total offense. That makes the team 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its past five games where all five opponents have scored 20 points or less.
Denver not only fell 22-7 in St. Louis against a Shaun Hill-led offense last week, but lost three key players to injuries -- RB Montee Ball (groin, out) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, questionable) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle, questionable).
The Dolphins and Broncos have met just five times in the thin air since 1992, and the Fish are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in those visits. Miami, however, has not seen Peyton Manning in a Broncos jersey just yet. He is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) with 283.7 passing yards per game, 5 TD and 1 INT in his three meetings with the Dolphins since 2009.
Some key betting trends for this matchup include Miami going 38-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents, and 38-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of its previous three games since 1992. The Broncos, however, are 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game, and 20-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons.
Miami placed CB Will Davis (knee) on IR last week and will likely be missing CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle, doubtful) as well, which doesn't bode well facing such a potent passing offense. In addition to Ball, Sanders and Thomas, Denver is also missing RB Ronnie Hillman (foot) indefinitely and LB Nate Irving (knee, IR).
The Dolphins picked up a big division win over the Bills on Thursday and now have a chance to kick the Broncos while they’re already down. QB Ryan Tannehill (2,354 pass yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) was excellent in the win over Buffalo, throwing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill has thrown for 6 TD and just 1 INT. The quarterback has struggled as a road underdog though, throwing for an average of just 216.0 yards per game with 15 TD and 17 INT in 16 such games in his career.
WR Jarvis Landry (42 rec, 400 yards, 3 TD) has really come on strong for the Dolphins recently, catching five or more passes in each of the past three games and has two touchdowns over the course of that streak. He’s a much-needed safety blanket over the middle and perfectly complements the boom-or-bust play of speedy WR Mike Wallace (44 rec, 557 yards, 6 TD).
RB Lamar Miller (614 rush yards, 5 TD) ran extremely well last game, gaining 86 yards on 15 carries despite playing with an injured shoulder. The Dolphins will need him to run just as hard if they’re going to have a chance of beating Denver.
Miami’s defense is allowing just 10.5 PPG over the past four weeks, and has forced three or more turnovers in four of the past seven contests.
Peyton Manning (3,301 pass yards, 30 TD, 9 INT) had an off-day in a loss to St. Louis last week with two interceptions, but he still completed 34-of-54 passes (63%) for 389 yards and a touchdown. Manning will need to be smarter with his passes and take much better care of the football against a Miami secondary that is second in the league in passing defense.
With RBs Montee Ball (groin) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) both out, RB C.J. Anderson (201 rush yards) will continue to get a good amount of touches in this offense. Anderson rushed for only 29 yards against the Rams, but he did catch eight passes for 86 yards in that game. Anderson does, however, need to do a better job in pass protection in order to keep Peyton Manning from taking too many hits.
If WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion, probable) is unable to play, WR Wes Welker (30 rec, 264 yards, 1 TD) could see a major increase in playing time. Welker has not been a big part of this offense since being suspended earlier in the season, but has had plenty of success versus the Dolphins in his career with 95 receptions (6 TD) and 1,178 receiving yards in 11 meetings (107 per game). Denver’s defense was an issue against the Rams and will need to do better against a well-balanced Dolphins team.
The Broncos could not get stops when they needed to get off the field, allowing the Rams to go 6-for-17 on third-down conversions. They also failed to force a turnover for the first time since Week 5. If Denver's defense does not step it up, it could have a lot of trouble against Miami.
