NFL
Week 12
Browns (6-4) @ Falcons (4-6)-- Atlanta is 4-0 within its division. 0-6 outside it, so not hard to figure how that factors in here; AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year, part of why 4-6 Falcons are in first place. Underdogs covered all four Browns' road games; Cleveland is 2-2 SU on foriegn soil. Falcons are 2-0 since bye after blowing 21-0 lead in London to Lions in game before their bye; Atlanta is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; they're +7 (10-3) in turnovers in last four games. Smith is 15-11 vs spread vs AFC teams, 0-2 this year. Teams split last four series games; this is Browns' first visit to Atlanta since '06. Last six Cleveland games, last five Atlanta games stayed under total.
Titans (2-8) @ Eagles (7-3)-- Travel on short week for Titan squad that lost four games in row; four of their last six games were decided by three or less points. Titans are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 26-24-2-14 points- they're 0-3 with Mettenberger at QB, but he averaged 11 yards/attempt vs Steelers Monday; he has potential. Eagles got bamboozled at Lambeau; they're 3-2 as home favorites, winning all five games by 17-3-6-27-24 points. Titans won last four series games after losing previous six; this is their first visit to Philly since '06. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5; AFC South underdogs are 7-9. Last three Philly games, 5 of last 7 Titan games went over.
Lions (7-3) @ Patriots (8-2)-- Pats won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they're 2-2 as a home favorite, winning by 7-26-2-28 points; they crushed Indy last week, scored 45.3 ppg in last three games, as healthy Gronkowski opened up whole offense. In their last 31 drives, Pats have 15 TDs, six FGAs, only four 3/outs. Detroit won four of last five games, holding six of last eight foes to 17 or less points. Lions are 3-2 on road, 0-2 as an underdog, scoring 7-6 points in those two games. NE won last three series games, by 8-7-21 points. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 2-6; NFC North road dogs are 5-7. Last nine Lion games stayed under total; last seven Patriot games went over. Lions are 1-2 on grass, 6-1 on carpet (lost 17-14 at home to Bills).
Packers (7-3) @ Vikings (4-6)-- Pack won six of last seven games, scoring 55-53 points in two post-bye games (10 TDs, five FGA/21 drives), but they're only 2-3 away from home, winning 27-24 (-3) at Miami, 38-17 (-2.5) in Chicago. Green Bay (-9.5) won first meeting 42-10 at Lambeau; they're 9-1-1 in last 11 series games, winning three of four in Twin Cities, but they were all in dome- this is outdoors. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Vikings are 4-0 when they score 19+ points, 0-6 when they score less; they're 2-2 at home, losing by 23-14. Pack are 13-5 in last 18 games as a divisional road favorite. Nine of ten Packer games went over; four of last five Viking games stayed under.
Jaguars (1-9) @ Colts (7-3)-- Indy won 44-17/40-24 in games following first two losses this season; they're now 13-0-1 vs spread under Pagano/Arians in game following their last 14 regular season losses. Jaguars won two of last three visits here, since '08, they're 12-17 as divisional road dog. Jax lost last three games by 14-10-14 points, outscored in first half 46-13; they're 1-3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-31-19-2-10 points. Colts allowed 39 ppg in last three games, getting smoked by Pitt/Pats; they are 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 24-7-27, with losses to Eagles/Pats. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Seven of last nine Indy games went over total.
Bengals (6-3-1) @ Texans (5-5)-- First grass game this season for Cincy; they're 11-5-1 in last 17 grass games, 5-1-1 in last seven as non-divisional road dog. Houston won last five series games, with three by 11+ points, last two of which were in playoffs. Bengals lost last three visits here, by 29-21-6 points. Bengals are 0-3 when they score 17 or less points, 6-0-1 if they score more; Texans allowed 33-31 points in losing two two home games, to Colts/Eagles, Houston is 4-1 as favorite this year; favorites covered all four of their home games. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-2 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 4-5 vs spread. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
Jets (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)-- Weather biggest story this week; college game Wednesday was postponed due to huge snowfall in western NY. Bills won four of last five series games, winning 43-23 (+3) in Swamp four weeks ago; Jets turned ball over six times (-6) in that game. Jets lost 28-9/37-14 in last two visits here; they're 1-4 in last five post-bye games losing 28-7/37-14 in last two. Gang Green is 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 7-2-31-14 points. Bills are 1-2 as favorites this year, 6-9 in last 15 when favored; they lost 17-13/22-9 in two post-bye games, scoring no TDs/four FGs on last six drives in red zone. Eight of ten Buffalo games stayed under total. How much has weather desrupted the Bills' preparation this week?
Buccaneers (2-8) @ Bears (4-6)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 as Bears' coach ('04-'12), got canned because he was 1-1 in playoff games his last six years (53-45 overall); now he is back in Chicago with 2-8 Bucs, who covered last four road games since 56-14 loss back in Week 3 Thursday night game in Atlanta. Bears won three of last four games vs Bucs, with all four decided by 6 or less points; they're 12-14 under Trestman, 4-6 this year. Chicago lost five of last seven games overall, is 1-3 at home; they snapped 3-game skid by beating Vikings last week. Chicago had been outscored 92-7 in first half during three-game skid. NFC South non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread. Last four Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
Cardinals (9-1) @ Seahawks (6-4)—This is like Miss State getting nine points last week; Arizona won/covered last six games, backup QB Stanton is as good as injured starter Palmer, but lack of national respect has spread this high. Cardinals won in Seattle in Week 16 LY, after losing there 58-0 the year before; they’re 9-4 as an underdog under Arians, 3-1 this year, with only loss 41-20 at Denver when 3rd-string QB Thomas wound up playing for while (1-8 passing, with 80-yard TD only completion). Seattle is 17-10-1 vs spread after a loss under Carroll, 1-2 this year; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 20-6-6-21 points and a loss to Dallas. Seahawks covered once in their last six games. Five of last six Seattle games went over; four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
Rams (4-6) @ Chargers (6-4)—Rumors persist that Rivers (ribs?) is hurting; in their last four games, San Diego averaged less than 6.0 ypa in every game, after being at 8.5+ in games 3-6, and 6.6/7.3 in first two games. Part of problem is their OL is a mess; they had problems protecting Rivers vs Oakland last week. St Louis pass rush has perked up; they’ve got 18 sacks in last five games, after having one in first five. You hold Broncos to 7 points, you’re playing good defense. St Louis is 3-2 as road underdog this year, 12-9 under Fisher, but offense has only five TDs on last 46 drives- their only TD “drive” last week was one play, 63-yard strike to Britt early in game. Bolts are 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, 4-3 under McCoy. Three of last four games for both sides stayed under total.
Dolphins (6-4) @ Broncos (7-3)—This game would’ve been lot more fun had Broncos signed former Dolphin bully Incognito couple weeks ago. Denver is 7-1 vs spread in game following bye with Manning as QB; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 7-7-21-25-14 points. Miami won/covered four of last five games; they had three extra days to prep after Thursday night win last week. Dolphins are 2-2 as road dog this year; they haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 3 at home to Chiefs. Fish are 8-3 in last 11 series games, but teams haven’t met in Manning era; Miami’s last visit here was in ’08. Sunday forecast is 43 and sunny; not south Florida, but tolerable. Six of last seven Denver games went over; last five Miami games stayed under.
Redskins (3-7) @ 49ers (6-4)—RGIII criticized him teammates after home loss to Bucs Sunday; Gruden criticized RGII for doing that but apologized the next day, business as usual for dysfunctional Redskins, who are 0-3 in Griffin starts this year, scoring 13 ppg. Skins are 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 11-3-10-3 points, with OT win at Dallas. 49ers are 0-3-1 as home favorites this year (15-9-2 under Harbaugh), splitting four games SU, with both wins by five points. Niners won last three series games, by 3-8-21 points; Redskins split last four visits here, with last trip in ’08. NFC non-divisional home favorites are 5-6 vs spread this season; NFC East road underdogs are 3-6. Seven of ten 49er games, three of last four Redskin games stayed under the total.
Cowboys (7-3) @ Giants (3-7)—Not sure how much Romo’s back healed in two weeks; he was 21-28/248 in win over Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Dallas lost three of last four post-bye games, but win was here LY; this is Cowboys’ first true road game since win in Seattle six weeks ago. Pokes are 3-0 in true road games, scoring 30 ppg; they were dogs in two of the three. Big Blue lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), scoring three TDs on 23 drives in last two games. Dallas (-6) won first meeting 31-21 in Week 7; game was 14-all at half. Romo averaged 10.7 ypa in Cowboys’ 4th win in last five series games. Pokes won three of last four visits to Swamp. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-12 vs spread. Three of last four Giant games, last three Dallas road games went over total.
Ravens (6-4) @ Saints (4-6)— Captain Obvious reports the Saints miss Darren Sproles; they averaged 5.9/6.2 ypa in last two games, their 2nd/3rd worst showings of year. Saints lost last two home games, are now 1-6 when allowing 24+ points, 3-0 when they allow less. NO allowed 144/186 rushing yards in last two games. Baltimore won Super Bowl in last visit here; they’ve won four of last five post-bye games, are 2-3 on road this year, winning at Browns (23-21), Bucs (48-17). AFC North teams are 8-1-1 vs NFC South teams this year. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 6-2. Bye week should help Raven offense that converted only 7 of 26 third down plays in last two games. Good stat on Baltimore; they’ve scored 10+ points in second half of every game this year.
