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Preview: Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3)

Date: November 20, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Washington Redskins are surging and the Green Bay Packers are struggling.

The story line for Sunday night's game at FedEx Field isn't too much different than it was for last year's wild-card playoff game in Washington.

The Redskins had won four in a row and the Packers had lost two in a row. Washington promptly jumped on Green Bay, taking a quick 11-0 lead. It was all Green Bay the rest of the way, though, as it advanced with a 35-18 win.

Washington is hot again. After back-to-back home losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas to open the season, the Redskins are 5-1-1. The Packers have dropped three in a row and four of their last five to tumble to 4-5.

"The main thing is just sticking together and staying the course and preparing and working hard," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said. "I think these guys play hard. We didn't point any fingers. We just continue to come to work and try to fight our way out of it and try to make plays in crucial situations."

It has been the same message from Packers coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay is in a rare spot, with a losing record through nine games for the first time since 2008. That's also the last time they failed to make the playoffs.

The Packers' string of seven consecutive playoff berths is matched only by the New England Patriots. With Green Bay's season in deep trouble, McCarthy is hoping for a repeat of last year's playoff performance.

"I think you always look at your past experiences," McCarthy said. "To me, that's part of developing your awareness and your instincts and how you move forward.

"With that, you have to make sure it applies to your current situation. I do that. I think everybody does that. That's a part of this league. No one walks through the NFL unscathed.

"This is a tough spot as far as what's going on the last three weeks, but, if anything, it brings you back to your foundation and makes you focus even more on what's most important, and that's beating the Redskins."

Doing that will be a major challenge. Washington's offense is led by quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has thrown for 2,716 yards and completed 66.9 percent of his passes. He has one of the deepest group of pass-catching threats in the league, with six players having at least 26 receptions.

Slot receiver Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed have a team-high 44 catches and receiver Pierre Garcon has added 42 catches.

Green Bay's pass defense, on the other hand, ranks 29th in opponent passer rating. Last week at Tennessee, the Titans threw five touchdown passes and only seven incompletions.

"The thing that has always impressed me from afar -- and then I think it's like anything when you get to see a quarterback play live -- is the command of the offense," McCarthy said. "He's running it. There's no ifs and buts. The way he gets in and out of plays, the way he distributes the football, he's accurate with the football. I think he's playing extremely well."

On the other side of the ball, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has struggled for most of the season. Without even the pretense of a running game the last four weeks, Rodgers ranks in the bottom half of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and yards per attempt.

Redskins cornerback Josh Norman doesn't care what the stats say, though. He considers Rodgers and the Patriots' Tom Brady the best quarterbacks in the league.

"Hey, man, let's not get things mistaken over there. That's No. 12," Norman said. "That guy can hit you at any time, any place, anywhere, any given day, any given game.

"I really don't care what the outside noise is. I know who we're facing and that's a cerebral quarterback that's the best of the best at what he's doing.

"Regardless of what others may think of him, I know for a fact that that is the toughest quarterback challenge to face because he has everything in his toolbox, in his arsenal, to make them win."

Injuries have slammed the Packers. They had nine Week 1 starters out of the game by the end of last week, with right guard T.J. Lang (ankle) and left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) dropping out of that blowout loss.

Lang, especially, is questionable this week, but the Packers could get back outside linebacker Clay Matthews, who has missed the last three games, and tight end Jared Cook, who has missed the last six games. In four games without Matthews, the Packers have allowed an average of 34.5 points.
 
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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Green Bay at Washington

Green Bay at Washington (-3, 49)

Washington entered the playoffs last season on a four-game winning streak against a struggling Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and promptly were run off their home field 35-18. Washington have a chance to atone for that loss Sunday, when they host a Green Bay club that is in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

The Packers have won only once in their last five games, and questions continue to surround the effectiveness of Rodgers, but Washington is tuning out such noise. “He’s still a future Hall-of-Famer,” Washington linebacker Will Compton told reporters. “You can’t buy into that (criticism) for a second.” The most pressing concern for Green Bay is a defense that has surrendered 141 points in its last four defeats, including a 47-25 thrashing at Tennessee last week. Washington did the Packers a favor by posting a 26-20 victory over NFC North-leading Minnesota, keeping Green Bay within a game of the division lead.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 2.5-home favorites over the struggling Packers and, despite briefly rising to 3, the line faded back to 2.5. The total opened 50 and was bet up to 50.5 before dropping to 49.5 late in the week.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: Two teams on opposite ends of the momentum ladder with Packers dropping three straight game while the Redskins are on a 5-1-1 win run since dropping their first two games of the season. Revenge from a playoff from season will be foremost on Washington’s mind while Green Bay hopes to avoid a 4th straight same season loss for the first time since 2008. Should be a dandy. - Marc Lawrence

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for FedEx Field is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the high 30’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - LB Clay Matthews (probable, hamstring), TE Jared Cook (probable, ankle), WR Randall Cobb (probable, hamstring), WR Ty Montgomery (questionable, illness), DB Micah Hyde (questionable, shoulder), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable, groin), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), G T.J. Lang (questionable, ankle), LB Jake Ryan (questionable, ankle), OT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), S Morgan Burnett (questionable, undisclosed)

Washington - LS Nick Sandberg (questionable, back), S Will Blackmon (questionable, thumb), DE Anthony Lanier (questionable, thigh), RB Matt Jones (questionable, knee), WR DeSean Jackson (questionable, shoulder), OT Morgan Moses (questionable, ankle)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Green Bay's ongoing search for a running back led to another waiver-wire acquisition, as it claimed Christine Michael on Wednesday after he was released by Seattle earlier in the week. A former second-round draft pick who was sent packing my three teams last season, Michael rushed for 469 yards for the Seahawks but was held to 23 yards over the last two games. “Dynamic football player; I love his running style,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters. "I think he’s a good fit for us.” Rodgers threw for a season-high 371 yards last week with Green Bay forced to play catch-up, but linebacker Clay Matthews should provide a boost to the beleaguered defense after missing three games.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 OU): Washington has lost once in its last seven games (5-1-1) as it attempts to keep pace with first-place Dallas and the New York Giants in the NFC East. Kirk Cousins threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against the Vikings and may have to continue to spread the ball around, with deep threat DeSean Jackson again a major question mark due to a shoulder injury. Rookie running back Rob Kelley has look solid in his first two starts, following an 87-yard performance against Cincinnati by rushing for 97 on 22 carries versus Minnesota's rugged defense. Washington is tied for sixth in the league with 25 sacks, with linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy recording a team-leading seven apiece.

TRENDS:

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Washington is 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-1 in Redskins last 9 vs. NFC.
Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home team favorite Washington is picking 51 percent of the point spread action and the over is getting 73 percent of the action.
 
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SNF - Packers at Redskins
By Micah Roberts

Green Bay (4-5 straight up, 4-4-1 against the spread) has lost three straight and four of its last five and will have the tall task of getting back on track at FedEx Field Sunday night against Washington (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS), who have lost only once (5-1-1) in its last seven games.

As each teams power rating go in different directions, the Packers find themselves as underdogs for just the second time this season as Washington is -3 (EV) with a total set at 50.

There was some comfort with Packers nation that when wide receiver Jordy Nelson returned this season that the offense would get back to dominating, but Nelson still doesn't appear to be fully recovered as far as speed goes. He's not blowing by defenders as we've all been accustomed to despite leading the team with 50 recptions, 635 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The real problem has been the running game, or lack of it. Coverage has been easier for teams facing Green Bay because they don't have to respect the run. Running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) hasn't played since Week 6 and he's still the teams leading rusher (360 yards). The active leading rusher is quarterback Aaron Rodgers (226 yards) and his three rushing TDs are the only Packers TDs on the ground all season. This is Week 11, that is horrendous, and a huge part of their demise.

Green Bay claimed RB Christine Michael off waivers earlier in the week after he was cut in Seattle, which could help down the road. But a player that has been dumped three separate times between two teams shouldn't be considered the savior. Still, he should be better than the alternative of Ty Montgomery and and James Starks.

The biggest boost this week will be the return of LB Clay Matthews who has missed the Packers 1-4 run the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. Statistically, the Packers defense hasn't been that bad. They allow only 84.4 yards per game on the ground (No. 4) and 339 YPG overall (No. 10). They have a respectable 23 sacks, but have created only 10 turnovers. Matthews should add a little extra spice of intensity for the defense.

The most encouraging note for the Packers (4-5) is that no one is running away with the NFC North as the Lions and Vikings each sit at 5-4. They can regroup, make a run, and still win the division. But they better start their move fast.

As for the Redskins (5-3-1), they sit third in the NFC East behind Dallas (8-1) and the Giants (6-3), but they've got something special going on with an offense that averages 407 YPG (No. 4), which is the highest average in team history. They've had only nine 3-and-out offensive series this season, the least in the league, as is their 25 total punts.

After missing last week, WR DeSean Jackson (head contusion) has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is great news for the offense. The injury to watch is with long snapper Nick Sundberg (back) who is still 'questionable' for Sunday. If he is unable to play, QB Colt McCoy would take over the duties which should be interesting to watch on special teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point in Las Vegas opened Washington -2.5 and it was quickly bet up to -3 on Monday until +3-flat was attractive and bet on Thursday. The only book in town that uses flat numbers is still sitting at -2.5, which is kind of telling. No respected money is laying -2.5 enough to force them back to -3, the most key number in the NFL.

OVER THE WORD IN D.C.

All five of the Redskins home games have gone 'over' the total with an average score of 24.6 to 25. Overall, they've gone 'over' in seven of nine games this season and 16-5 to the 'over' in their last 21.

RECENT MEETINGS

These two teams met in last year's Wild Card playoff game last season at Landover with Washington (-2) jumping out to an 11-0 lead early in the second quarter, but then Green Bay would go to to outscore them 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 win, which went 'over' the total of 47.

The previous meetings was in 2013 with Green Bay (-9) winning 38-20 at Lambeau Field and going 'over' the total of 48.5 points.

SNF PROPS (WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK)

-- Total completions by Aaron Rodgers: 26.5
-- Total TD passes by Aaron Rodgers: 2
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Nelson: 80.5

-- Gross passing yards by Kirk Cousins: 292.5
-- Total TD passes by Kirk Cousins: 1.5 OV -175
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Reed 65.5
-- Total sacks by both teams: 4.5 UN -120

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate posted Week 12 early lines with the Redskins getting +6.5 at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Packers catching three points at Philadelphia for the Monday night matchup.
 
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Pick Six - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers

Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 27-31-1 ATS

Review: The early games turned out well with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Broncos all winning as underdogs. The late games not so much with San Diego and Pittsburgh falling short as home favorites.

Titans at Colts (-3, 53 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The AFC South race is still wide-open at the halfway point as Tennessee has played its way back into the pack. The Titans eclipsed the 35-point mark for the third straight week in last Sunday’s 47-25 home rout of the Packers as three-point underdogs. Tennessee keeps cashing OVER tickets on a consistent basis by hitting the OVER in seven consecutive games, including three in a row away from Nissan Stadium. The Titans have struggled against the Colts over the years by losing 10 straight meetings, including a 34-26 home defeat last month.

Indianapolis
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Colts are fresh off the bye week as Indianapolis held off Green Bay in its last contest, 31-26 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Indianapolis has yet to win back-to-back games this season, as two of its losses off a victory are by three points apiece to division foes Jacksonville and Houston. The Colts own a 2-1 SU/ATS record as a home favorite, one season after going 2-4 ATS when laying points at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the fourth home total of 50 or higher this season for the Colts, as the UNDER is 2-1 in those contests.

Best Bet: Indianapolis -3

Cardinals at Vikings (-2 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 4-4-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Cardinals are one season removed from an NFC championship appearance as Arizona sits at .500 after nine games. Arizona edged San Francisco last week with a last-second field goal but failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites in a 23-20 victory. The Cardinals play five of their final seven games away from University of Phoenix Stadium as Arizona owns a 1-2 SU/ATS road mark with that lone win over the woeful 49ers. Arizona has dropped eight straight road matchups with Minnesota, while making its first trip to the Twin Cities since a 21-14 loss back in 2012.

Minnesota
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Vikings were in the discussion of receiving home-field advantage after a 5-0 start. However, Minnesota may be left out of the playoffs if it doesn’t get on track and snap its current four-game losing streak. The latest tumble by Minnesota happened in Washington last Sunday as the Vikings fell short in a 26-20 defeat to the Vikings. During this four-game skid, Minnesota has averaged 14 points per game, while losing three times in the favorite role. The Vikings are laying points this week as Minnesota has compiled an 8-2 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2015 season.

Best Bet: Minnesota -2 ½

Bills at Bengals (-2 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Which Bills team will show up this week in Cincinnati? The one that won four straight games, including a shutout of the Patriots or the one that has lost three in a row? Buffalo has scored exactly 25 points in three consecutive contests (which is nearly impossible to do), but has allowed at least four touchdowns in each of those losses to Miami, New England, and Seattle. The Bills are in the midst of a five-game OVER streak, including three straight OVERS away from Buffalo.

Cincinnati
Record: 3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Amazingly, the Bengals still have a shot at winning the AFC North title in spite of going 1-3-1 in the last five games. Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh and Baltimore in December, while traveling to Cleveland in three weeks. The Bengals were tripped up on Monday night by the Giants, 21-20 as Cincinnati has been held to fewer than 20 points in all five losses this season. Cincinnati owns a 2-1 SU/ATS mark at Paul Brown Stadium, while winning eight of its past 11 times in the role of a home favorite since 2015.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -2 ½

Ravens at Cowboys (-7 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Ravens have rebounded from a four-game skid to win back-to-back home divisional games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Baltimore has allowed 20 points or less in all five wins this season, while looking to go above .500 on the highway after losing its past two road contests to the Giants and Jets. The Ravens have lost five of their past six games against NFC foes, including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark this season in interconference action. Baltimore has never lost to Dallas in four lifetime matchups, including a 33-24 triumph to close out Cowboys Stadium in 2008.

Dallas
Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The Cowboys will continue to keep rolling with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback after Dallas edged Pittsburgh, 35-30 to win and cover its eighth consecutive game. Fellow rookie star Ezekiel Elliott busted the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in the last seven games with 114 yards, including the game-winning 32-yard touchdown scamper in the final seconds. Dallas has not been favored by more than 6 ½ points at home this season, but the Cowboys have cashed in three straight home games since losing the opener to the Giants. There has not been a look-ahead factor for Dallas prior to its annual Thanksgiving matchup, as the Cowboys have won 11 consecutive years in the final game before Turkey Day (6-5 ATS).

Best Bet: Baltimore +7 ½

Dolphins (-1 ½) at Rams – 4:05 PM EST

Miami
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Dolphins remained out west following its 31-24 comeback victory over the Chargers last Sunday to win their fourth straight game. Miami topped the 27-point mark for the fourth consecutive week as the Dolphins haven’t won a game this season when scoring 24 points or less. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, even though he hasn’t eclipsed the 260-yard mark passing. The Dolphins are listed as a road favorite for the first time since Week 2 of last season in a 23-20 defeat at Jacksonville as six-point chalk.

Los Angeles
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Rams finally pulled the plug on quarterback Case Keenum and are turning to top pick Jared Goff to revive an offense that ranks last in the league in points per game at 15.4. Los Angeles is coming off its second win this season in which they didn’t reach the end zone, knocking off the Jets, 9-6 as one-point favorites. The Rams are looking for their first home victory since Week 2 against Seattle, as Los Angeles has scored 10 points or less in five games this season.

Best Bet: Los Angeles +1 ½

Eagles at Seahawks (-6 ½, 50) – 4:25 PM EST

Philadelphia
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

The Eagles have had their share of problems on the road this season by losing four of five games away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia climbed above the .500 mark in last Sunday’s 24-15 home victory over Atlanta, but remains three games behind Dallas in the NFC East. In their past two road losses, the Eagles have lost by six points to the Cowboys and five points to the Giants, while not dropping a game by more than a touchdown this season.

Seattle
Record: 6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Seahawks’ offense is kicking into high gear by scoring 31 points in each of their last two victories against the Bills and Patriots. Seattle picked up a morsel of revenge for its Super Bowl loss two years ago against New England by holding off the Patriots, 31-24 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put together his best game of the season by throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while picking up its second cover as an underdog this season. Seattle has won all four games at CenturyLink Field, but the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS at home.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +6 ½
 
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Best Bets - Week 11

After a few weeks of continually heading to the cashier's window to get paid, last week's Best Bet on Jacksonville left plenty to be desired. The Jags continue to make bonehead mistakes that cost them victories and the fact that Houston won that game with only 99 passing yards from QB Brock Osweiler was flat out embarrassing.

All the preseason hype surrounding Jacksonville finally turning the corner this year and contending for a playoff spot was just smoke and mirrors and the organization will have a lot of soul searching to do this off-season.

One loss does not damper a successful NFL season with my best bets though and I'm aiming to get right back in the win column this week.

Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens (+7)

Baltimore is in Dallas this week to take on the 8-1 SU Cowboys and this line is a little out of whack. Thanks to Dallas' eight-game winning streak (SU and ATS), more and more public support is coming on them each week and oddsmakers appear to finally had enough of it.

The Cowboys are always a popular team for NFL bettors and fans, but eight straight ATS victories have forced books to finally make a bit of an adjustment and they've gone a bit too far here.

Baltimore is a solid team that's got extra rest after their TNF game, and the Ravens would love to be the ones to end this Cowboys run.

Dallas couldn't be in a much worse spot schedule-wise to be laying this kind of chalk against a quality opponent either as they are coming off that big win in Pittsburgh and have a short week ahead of them with a Thanksgiving showdown with division rival Washington on tap.

Dallas has squashed the Romo vs. Prescott debate at least for this week with Romo making the public comments he did, but once the Cowboys lose a game there is no doubt the debate will be reopened.

This could be that week as the Cowboys have always thrived under adversity and drama and now that it appears there isn't much with Romo conceding the starting job, I'm not so sure we see the best Cowboys this week.

Statistically this isn't a great matchup for the Cowboys either as they lead the league in rushing and Baltimore's got the #1 defense against the run.

There is no question that Baltimore has used their extra prep time to dig deep into advanced scouting on how to slow down RB Ezekiel Elliot, and with the success they had slowing down opposing RB's already, it's not like drastic changes will be needed.

Despite their eight-game winning streak, Dallas hasn't been that great of a bet at home either. They needed OT – and a game-winning TD in OT – to cover the number against Philly last time they were here, and dropped their only game of the season Week 1 at home.

Going back to previous years as well, the Cowboys are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 at home and they are on a 2-5-1 ATS run as an organization when playing a winning team. That last trend goes to show you that even with eight straight covers, Dallas' schedule this year hasn't been the toughest as there have been numerous teams with .500 or worse records when they meet the Cowboys on the schedule.

Conversely, Baltimore is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games against a winning team and have a 14-4-3 ATS run going on the road against a team with a winning record at home.

The Ravens might not be able to end this incredible run the Cowboys are on SU, but this is too many points to give a veteran squad like Baltimore who can stop the run and keep this contest within three or four points.
 
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Expert NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

It's always helpful when the lead item in a story writes itself, and that was the case this week when the Minnesota Vikings released kicker Blair Walsh, something that was overdue.

It's 100 percent fitting Walsh was cut loose this week because the Vikings are hosting the Arizona Cardinals in an important NFC game Sunday. You see, if Walsh makes a chip-shot 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of last season's wild-card game against Seattle, the third-seeded Vikings advance to a divisional-round game at No. 2 Arizona. Except Walsh didn't and the Vikings lost 10-9. To be fair, it was brutally cold that day as the Vikings were playing outdoors at the University of Minnesota. But that's no excuse for missing that kick. As it was, the No. 5 Packers (after a win at Washington) would play the Cardinals in the divisional round and the No. 6 Seahawks went to No. 1 Carolina.

Kudos to the Vikings for standing by Walsh -- a Pro Bowler in 2012 as a rookie when he was 10-for-10 on kicks from at least 50 yards, and who got a four-year, $13 million extension in July 2015 -- after that devastating loss, and you have to respect loyalty. But two Sundays ago in a home game the Vikings never should have lost in overtime to the Lions, Walsh missed an extra point and had a 46-yard field goal blocked. In last week's loss to the Redskins, Walsh missed another PAT, his league-leading fourth such miss this year. So the Vikings released Walsh on Tuesday after holding tryouts for a handful of kickers last week. They signed Kai Forbath, among those kickers worked out last week, on Wednesday. Forbath kicked for the Redskins from 2012 to 2015 and also spent part of the 2015 season with the Saints.

Cardinals at Vikings Betting Story Lines

Both clubs were division winners last year, and it's still possible they could each repeat. Minnesota (5-4) is tied with Detroit atop the NFC North with the Packers a game back. The Vikings are definitely trending the wrong way as they entered a Week 6 bye as the NFL's only unbeaten team left and haven't added to that No. 5 in the W column since. Certainly it's not all Walsh's fault as he really only cost the team the Detroit game. This past Sunday, the Vikings lost 26-20 in Washington despite leading 20-14 at halftime.

Sam Bradford was fine vs. Washington, throwing for 307 yards, two TDs and a pick. Stefon Diggs caught 13 passes for 164 yards to become the first player in league history with back-to-back 13-catch games. But yet again the running game did nothing. Minnesota had 47 yards on 21 carries. The Vikings have been stopped on five of their 13 attempts to pick up a yard on third or fourth down in their four-game losing streak because of no push in the ground game. That's basically a turnover. To make matter worse, a struggling Vikings offensive line has lost Jake Long to injured reserve.

Arizona (4-4-1) is two games behind the Seahawks in the NFC West, and the teams are essentially deadlocked in the tiebreaker because they tied one another and each has one division loss. The Cardinals visit Seattle on Christmas Eve. Only two of the Cards' final seven are at home, so I doubt they win the division. They are currently ninth in the NFC standings but just a loss behind No. 6 Washington.

Frankly, I don't think this Arizona club is all that good. The wins are against Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and two against the 49ers -- none of those are teams have winning records. Last week, Arizona escaped the Niners in the desert, 23-20. Chandler Catanzaro kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired; he might also have been released had he missed because Catanzaro missed potential winners early this season vs. the Patriots and Seahawks. Carson Palmer threw for 376 yards vs. the Niners, his third straight 300-yard game, but he had just one TD and two picks. He's not playing close to last year's level. Arizona running back David Johnson had 101 scrimmage yards and two TDs vs. San Francisco. He became one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Hayes) to have at least 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving touchdowns and a kickoff-return touchdown in a player's first two seasons.

From an injury perspective, Cards defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, one of the best overall defensive players in the NFL, is expected to play this week. The Honey Badger hasn't since suffering a shoulder subluxation against the Panthers on Oct. 30. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald had an MRI after Sunday's game but also should go. The Vikings are Fitz's hometown team.

Cardinals at Vikings Betting Odds and Trends

This game is a pick'em with a total of 40.5. Thus no moneyline. On the alternate lines, the Vikings are -1 (-103) and Cardinals -1 (-103). Arizona is 4-4-1 against the spread (1-2 on road) and 3-6 "over/under" (3-0 on road). Minnesota is 5-4 ATS (3-1 at home) and 3-6 O/U (1-3 at home).

The Cards are 2-5 ATS in their past seven after an ATS loss. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six after a win and the same record in the previous six against teams with a winning record. The Vikings are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 after rushing for less than 90 yards in their previous game. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. the NFC. The under is 10-4 in Arizona's past 14 vs. the NFC. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's past 10 after an ATS loss. It's 8-2 in the Vikes' past 10 following a SU loss. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Cardinals at Vikings Betting Prediction

These teams did play Week 14 in the desert last year and Arizona won 23-20 as a 10-point favorite. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater made a huge mistake as the clock was winding down and with Minnesota already in field-goal range as he was strip-sacked with five seconds left and it was recovered by Arizona. The Vikes were trying to get a bit closer than the Arizona 31, but Bridgewater has to throw that ball away.

I certainly lean the Arizona offense over Minnesota's in this game, but the Vikings' defense is also the better unit even though cornerback Xavier Rhodes and linebacker Eric Kendricks are in question after both were hurt last week. Maybe it will come down to a Forbath field goal. Take the home side and under the small total.
 
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NFL Odds: Week 11 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

It's weeks like this why my editor at Doc's added this Friday NFL news update story on top of the Opening Line Report I write on Mondays. Not sure if you have heard, but the NFL is a contact sport and there tend to be injuries. Sometimes we don't hear about major ones until Tuesday because players have Mondays off. And obviously injuries can occur in practice.

Of course, head coaches also can decide to bench or promote guys (or fire or promote coaches) after having a bit more time to stew over what happened on Sunday. That's what happened with Rams coach Jeff Fisher. On Monday, I wrote that Fisher planed to stick with Case Keenum as his quarterback even though Keenum had been terrible this season other than perhaps two games. Fisher had said he wanted to keep No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff on the bench until the Rams were eliminated from the playoffs. The coach didn't want to lose the locker room.

But Fisher came to his senses and has announced Goff will make his NFL debut on Sunday at home against the Dolphins -- Goff's first game was always going to be in front of a friendly (i.e. quiet while Rams offense has the ball) home crowd. The Rams did end a four-game losing streak last Sunday at the Jets, but that 9-6 win was in spite of Keenum rather than because of him. Is Goff any good? I have no idea. Sure, he looked great at Cal, but plenty of quarterbacks star in those Air Raid college offenses and stink in the pros. For example, Keenum played in a similar system at the University of Houston and was one of the statistically greatest NCAA players ever.

Goff looked a bit overmatched during the preseason, which many of us saw on "Hard Knocks." He completed just 22 of 49 passes for 232 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. His main problem was hanging on to the ball too long and getting sacked or hit instead of just throwing it away. So typical rookie stuff. Dolphins-Rams was a pick'em on Monday with a total of 40.5, but now it's Miami -2 with a total of 39.5. The Fins have one of the NFL's better defensive lines, but I expect the Rams to be very conservative in their play-calling, especially early in the game. Think two Todd Gurley runs and a short, high-percentage pass being an average first-half series.

The Rams are the first team since the 1997 Bills to win two games in which they scored fewer than 10 points. Sportsbooks offer a prop this week asking if the Rams win another game this season without scoring a touchdown: "no" is -5000 and "yes" +1000. Obviously that's highly doubtful, but the Rams' Week 16 home game vs. the 49ers is a possibility.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 11.

Patriots at 49ers (+13, 51): Line has dropped a half-point as has the total. I touched on this Monday as well, but a Rob Gronkowski injury update happened after Monday's posting. There were initial reports he punctured a lung on a big hit from Seattle's Earl Thomas on Sunday night. If you watched the game, you know the exact play. Gronk looked shaken up but did return. The Pats are being rather vague about things, but Gronk had to skip an EA Sports event Tuesday because he couldn't fly and that sounds like a punctured lung to me. I would be surprised if Gronk, who hasn't practiced, makes the trip. The Pats don't need him for this one. They do next week at the Jets.

Packers at Redskins (-3, 50): Line has jumped a half-point. Bovada offers a prop on the future of Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy. That he will be the team's head coach Week 1 of next season is -300 and no +200. Aaron Rodgers has seemed to be pointing some fingers at the coaching staff during the Pack's three-game losing streak. But then this week, Rodgers said any criticism of his head coach is "ridiculous." Still, there's no doubting the Pack underachieved last year a bit and much more so this season. I think I'd take no on that prop. McCarthy wouldn't be out of a job for long. Two of Rodgers' offensive linemen are in question here: left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and right guard T.J. Lang (ankle) couldn't finish last Sunday's game. It's still not clear if Pro Bowl linebacker Clay Matthews will finally return from his hamstring injury. His defense badly misses him. Washington is hoping WR DeSean Jackson can return after missing last week because of a rotator cuff injury in his left shoulder. These teams met in last year's wild-card round, with the Packers winning 35-18 on the road. In his past two against the Redskins, Rodgers has completed 55 of 78 passes for 690 yards with six touchdowns and no picks for a 123.3 passer rating.

Ravens at Cowboys (-7, 45): One of the games of the day and featuring division leaders. Your new NFL MVP betting favorite at Bovada? That would be Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott at +250. He has overtaken Tom Brady (+275). Elliott is also the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite at -500, with teammate Dak Prescott at +275 (+1000 for MVP). Prescott has won eight consecutive starts, tied for the second-longest winning streak by a rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger holds the mark of 13 in 2004 when he led the Steelers to the AFC title game. Meanwhile, Baltimore receiver Steve Smith needs three catches to become the 14th player with 1,000 career. Former Steeler Hines Ward retired right on 1,000. Baltimore will get a key defender back in outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil. He has played only two games this season.
 
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Monday Night Football Predictions: Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders Odds & Picks
by Alan Matthews

Let's not get into an election argument here, and it doesn't matter to me whether you voted for Trump or Hillary. But I think even the most ardent Trump backers had to be a bit taken aback by some of the things he has said about Mexicans. Whether he actually deports all those illegal immigrants and builds a wall we will have to see.

I'm quite sure that back when the NFL announced it was playing this Monday night's game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City that the things Trump said weren't even a second thought. But I do think it will be interesting to see what happens Monday before the Texans-Raiders game regarding the American National Anthem.

Here's hoping that nothing detracts from what could be a very important game and matches division leaders. Why pick these two teams for the league's first game south of the border since Oct. 2, 2005, and first-ever international Monday night game? The Raiders are a popular team in Mexico because of their colors, nickname and outlaw image. I do wonder whether Oakland officials now regret giving up a home game with the team a Super Bowl contender. And the Texans are a natural with the proximity to Mexico.

Texans at Raiders Betting Story Lines

Houston (6-3) entered Week 11 up two games in the loss column on Tennessee and Indianapolis in the AFC South, and those two teams play each other on Sunday. The Texans already own one win over both but still have to visit Indy and Nashville.

This past Sunday, the Texans got their first road win of the year, but barely: 24-21 at Jacksonville. Brock Osweiler has been largely a $72 million bust and has been the NFL's worst road quarterback. He wasn't much better in that game in throwing for just 99 yards on 27 attempts. How is that even possible? On the bright side, he did have two TD throws and didn't turn it over. But this team is going nowhere if Osweiler doesn't improve his NFL-worst 5.61 yards per attempt. The Texans have play-making weapons in running back Lamar Miller and receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, although Fuller has really tailed off after a quick start and missed the Jacksonville game injured. The rookie should play this week as should nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback A.J. Bouye, who both missed the Jags game.

The Raiders (7-2) come off their bye on a three-game winning streak and are tied for the AFC's best record -- yet if the postseason started right now would be a wild-card team. That's because Kansas City is also 7-2 and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Those two play again Week 14 on a Thursday in K.C. The Broncos are just a half-game back of the Chiefs and Raiders but have played one more game. Frankly, both the Chiefs and Broncos were incredibly lucky to win Week 10. The AFC West has three seven-win teams through Week 10. That hasn't happened in any division since 1999. (AFC East and the Patriots weren't one of them!)

With the first pick of the 2014 draft, the Texans took South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. At the time, that was fine because he was the No. 1 overall prospect and dominant in college. What I have an issue with was Houston taking UCLA guard Xavier Su'a-Filo with the first pick of the second round when that franchise badly needed a quarterback. Just three picks later, the Raiders took Derek Carr out of Fresno State, and he's a rising superstar and MVP candidate. Carr has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions this season and his 5.67 TD/INT ratio is the best mark in the league among players with at least 15 touchdown passes. Houston ranks No. 3 in the NFL against the pass.

The Raiders have a Super Bowl-caliber offense, although I'm not totally sold on running back Latavius Murray. There are two good rookies to complement him in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The defense started terribly but has been better of late, particularly Khalil Mack. In the four games before the bye, Mack ranked third in the NFL with six sacks, including two multi-sack performances. Stopping him will be job No. 1 for that so-so Houston offensive line. Osweiler has been sacked 17 times.

Texans at Raiders Betting Odds and Trends

Oakland is a 6-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46. On the moneyline, the Raiders are -245 and Texans +205. On the alternate lines, the Raiders are -6.5 (-103) and -5.5 (-117). Houston is 5-3-1 against the spread (1-3 on road) and 4-5 "over/under" (2-2 on road). I'm going to give Oakland's road numbers too: the Raiders are 6-3 ATS (5-0 on road) and 7-2 O/U (4-1 on road).

Houston is 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a winning record. It is 1-8 ATS in its past nine on Monday. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a bye. They are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 vs. the AFC. The under is 6-2 in Houston's past eight after a win. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's past six.

Texans at Raiders Betting Prediction

Houston is 6-3 all-time in this series and won the most recent matchup, 30-14 in Week 2 of the 2014 season in Oakland. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the Texans' starting QB that day. J.J. Watt caught a TD pass and Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a score. Fitzpatrick is now with the Jets, Watt is out for the season and Foster has retired. Carr threw for 263 yards, a TD and two picks. Oakland turned it over four times.

Maybe Osweiler just stinks in the United States and will find his game out of it. Yeah, probably not. Raiders are healthier and well-rested and have played better away from home. Give the six and go under.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 20

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Indy won again vs. Titans on Oct. 23, that’s now 10 SU wins in a row (7-2-1 vs. line) in series for Colts. Indy “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY, Tenn. also “over” 11-2 last 13 since late 2015, “overs” 6-2 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line away TY in a bit of improvement from recent seasons. Lions 1-2-1 as home chalk TY but 5-2-1 last 8 vs. spread at Ford Field.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 9-3 last 12 since late 2015, also 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. Andy Reid only 1-3 vs. line at Arrowhead TY and 1-6 last 7 as host since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 4-0-1 vs. line last four after Cincy win on Monday. G-Men also “over” 5-1 last six at MetLife Stadium. Bears only 3-11 last 14 on board and “over” 7-4 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After covering 19 of 22, Vikings have now lost and failed to cover four straight. Zimmer “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015. Cards 1-3 vs. line last four away and “under” 8-3 last 11 regular season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Monday loss vs. Giants., Cincy just 2-7 vs. line TY. Rex Ryan “over” 7-2 in 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at DALLAS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dak 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 vs. line TY. Ravens have now won and covered two straight after dropping four in a row SU and vs. line. Ravens 14-9 last 23 as dog. Harbaugh also “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns now no covers last four TY after putting up some good fights, now 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Also “under” last two after Hue Jackson teams were “over” 12-3 dating to his Oakland year in 2011. Tomlin no wins or covers last four TY and only 1-3 as visitor. Steel also “under” 9-3 last 12 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MIAMI at LOS ANGELES (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams “under” 18-7-1 since late 2014. Miami four straight wins and covers.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners covered last week but 1-7 vs. line last eight TY. Chip also “over” 6-3 TY and 11-4 last 15 dating to late last season with Eagles.
Tech Edge: Belichick and “over,” based on team and “totals” trendss.

PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Seahawks “over” 7-2-1 last ten at home, though 1-4 vs. spread last five at CenturyLink since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack only 6-12 vs. spread last 18 reg.-season games. Note GB 1-8 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Skins 5-1-1 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven games TY, 10-3 last 13 vs. spread in reg. season since late 2015. Skins also “over” 12-2 last 14 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
 
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NFL

Week 11

Sunday Games

Titans (5-5) @ Colts (4-5)— Indy (+2.5) won first meeting 34-26 in Music City, scoring two TDs in 0:08 span after 2:00 warning- it was their 10th win in row over Titans (23-4 in last 27). Tennessee lost its last eight visits here. Titans are 2-2 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Houston, 8 in San Diego, with wins at Detroit/Miami. In last three games, Tennessee averaged 12.2/7.3/9.8 yards/pass attempt- they’ve averaged 32 pts/game in their last six games. Colts are 2-2 at home, beating Bears by 6, Chargers by 4; they’re 0-3 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Last seven Tennessee games went over total; average total in their last five games is 53.7- over is 7-2 in Indy games. Colts covered nine of their last 11 post-bye games, seven in row when favored.

Jaguars (2-7) @ Lions (5-4)— Hard to lay 7 points with Detroit when they’ve trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all seven of their games were decided by 7 or less points. Detroit is 3-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 1-3-3 points and loss to Tennessee. Jax lost its last four games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3 points, scoring 17.5 pts/game while turning ball over six times on 21 possessions. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 3-6 at home. AFC South road dogs are 4-5 vs spread. Jags won three of five series games, only one of which was decided by less than 5 points- teams split two meetings here. Detroit won its last four post-bye games, covered nine of last 12. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; Detroit’s last three games stayed under.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Chiefs (7-2)— KC is 7-2 this year, 18-3 in its last 21 games but in their last two games, both wins, Chiefs scored one offensive TD on 22 drives, with eight FGAs. Chiefs have two wins this year when they trailed by 14+ in 4th quarter, only two games like that in NFL this year. KC is 4-0 at home this year but 1-3 as home favorite, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points- three of their last four wins are by 6 or less points. Tampa Bay scored 30.5 pts/game in splitting its last four games; Bucs are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road dog, with only loss 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2- they won at Atlanta/Carolina. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 5-6. Bucs’ last four games went over total; Chiefs’ last five games stayed under.

Bears (2-7) @ Giants (6-3)— Big Blue’s six wins are by total of 21 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of nine giant games was decided by more than 7 points. New York is 4-1 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-4-1-5 points, with loss to Washington. Bears ran 12 plays for minus-13 yards in second half at Tampa LW; Chicago lost four of last five games, is 0-5 on road, 0-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26 points. There was lot of talk Monday that Cutler could on way out of Chicago soon. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ’13. Bears won three of last four visits here, but last one was six years ago. Under is 6-3 in Giant games, 3-1 in last four Chicago games.

Cardinals (4-4-1) @ Vikings (5-4)— Minnesota is in freefall, losing last four games after a 5-0 start. Vikings are 3-1 in their new stadium, with only loss in OT to Lions. Arizona allowed 28 pts/game in losing two of first three road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over six times in last two games, is 0-1-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games of a series where home team won last five meetings; Arizona beat them 23-20 LY in desert, thanks to +3 TO ratio. Cardinals lost last eight visits to Twin Cities, with last win here in ’77. NFC North teams are 9-15 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 7-13. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Viking games. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for the Cardinals (lost 33-18 in Buffalo).

Ravens (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1)— Dallas won/covered eight games in row; Romo may dress as a backup here, but QB Prescott is the man for Cowboys now. Pokes are 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6 points, with loss to Giants in Week 1. Ravens are 2-2 on road, beating Jax/Browns; both their road losses were in Swamp Stadium (0-2 as a road underdog this year). None of Baltimore’s eight losses are by more than 8 points. Baltimore won last five series games; last time Dallas beat them was in ’91, when Ravens were the Cleveland Browns. AFC North teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC East teams are 15-5 vs spread outside the division, 9-2 at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games, 1-3 in Cowboys’ last four.

Steelers (4-5) @ Browns (0-10)— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 60-8 in second half of last three games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, losing 30-9/28-12 LY; Steelers won five of last six visits here, with three of five wins by 16+ points. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven games; 1-2-1 as home underdogs, losing home tilts by 5-20-3-25 points. Pitt lost its last four games, allowing 28 pts/game; Steelers lost last three road games, scoring four TD’s on 35 drives while scoring 10.7 pts/game. One thing though; all four Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18 points); they’re 0-3 in games decided by less than eight points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread this season.

Dolphins (5-4) @ Rams (4-5)— Rookie QB Goff gets his first NFL start here, vs Dolphin defense that picked Rivers off four times in 4th quarter alone LW in San Diego. Miami won/covered its last four games, scoring 29 pts/game; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win in San Diego- they scored TD on defense/special teams in three of last five games. Bar has been set low for Goff; on their last 32 drives, LA scored one TD- they didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins this year. Rams are 1-2 in Coliseum, scoring 12.7 pts/game (two TDs on 31 drives). Miami is 10-2 in last 12 games against the Rams, winning last three; last series win for Rams was in 2001. Fish are 5-1 vs Rams in LA/St Louis. Major question in this game is if Goff’s presence will take a defender out of box, open up more running lanes for Gurley.

Patriots (7-2) @ 49ers (1-8)— Over last nine years, NE is 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss as a favorite. Brady comes home to play here, but Gronkowski may not play after lung was injured in Seattle game. New England is 4-0 on road this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 2-20-11-16 points. 49ers lost last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 as a home underdog this year, losing last four home tilts by 7-12-17-18 points. Patriots won last visit to SF 30-21 in 2008, their only win in five road games vs 49ers; they won three of last four games with Niners, after losing seven of first eight. AFC East teams are 6-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West teams are 3-7 as an underdog, 0-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Niners’ last eight games, 3-1 in Patriots’ last four.

Eagles (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-2-1)— Seattle got big win in Foxboro last week, could have letdown here. Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6 points. Eagles lost four of last six games after a 3-0 start; they lost last four road games, allowing 28 pts/game but had strong defensive effort in 24-15 home win over Falcons LW. Philly is 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Home side lost seven of last eight series games; Seattle won four of last five meetings. Philly is 5-3 in Seattle, but hasn’t been here since 2011. NFC West teams are 7-13 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 15-5. Over is 4-2 in Eagles’ last six games, 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven. Seahawk opponents converted 27 of last 42 on third down, not good.


Sunday Night

Packers (4-5) @ Redskins (5-3-1)— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last three games while allowing 111 points- they were down 35-10 in 2nd quarter in Nashville LW. Pack lost last three road games, by 3-1-22 points; their only road win was in opener at Jackaonville. Green Bay is 1-0 as an underdog this year. Redskins are 5-1-1 in last seven games after an 0-2 start (two home losses); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-6 points. Washington is 30-57 on 3rd down in its last four games, helping improve field position. Packers won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, including a 35-18 win in a playoff game LY. Over is 7-2 in Washington games, 3-0 in Packers’ last three. NFC North teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games.
 
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At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Gunnevera was an impressive winner of yesterday’s $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), picking up a nice paycheck and 10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points.

I made the colt my second choice thinking his 5-2 morning line price might go south, but he paid a more than fair $7.80. My third choice Hot Sean completed a recommended exacta that paid a decent $42.00.

We also had the trifecta with 18-1 Dangerfield landing third, the $1 trifecta paying $274.40.

We struggled at the Big A with the profits coming at Del Mar where I had five winners on top, paying $6.00, $16.40, $2.60, $7.60 and $6.40.

The highlight was Big Hit winning the third race at $16.40 and completing a $95.80 exacta. The day ended well with Cecile’s Diamond paying $7.60 as my top pick and topping a recommended exacta that returned $35.20 and trifecta that paid a hefty $290.30 with 40-1 longshot Miss Napper Tandy landing third.

While it was a tough go at the Big A on Saturday, on the bright side we have a $101,393 Pick 6 carryover for today as the wager went unsolved for the third straight day.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#3 Imasuperstar 5-2
#1 Dark as Midnight 8-1
#6 Morse Code 2-1
#4 Kabang 7-2

Analysis: Imasuperstar has run second in all three of his career starts, the last two over wet tracks. Last out he set the early fractions in the mud and was no match for the 8 3/4 length winner while 3 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. His best effort came in his debut over a fast track which he will get today. He is out of a Speightstown mare that has dropped one winner.

Dark as Midnight is back on dirt here after a fourth last out going seven furlongs on turf. Two and three back this guy ran into repeat winners. His best finish came on the inner track here in his debut back in Match in a runner up finish. Her is out of the stakes winner Pretty Imposing ($276,388).

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The New York Stallion Series (3:47 ET)
#6 Empire Dreams 5-2
#7 Loki's Vengeance 4-1
#4 West Hills Giant 5-1
#1 Bust Another 3-1

Analysis: Empire Dreams was off poorly when lunging at the break last out, stalked thee early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out in the state bred Empire Classic in the slop going nine furlongs. The gelding makes his third start off the bench and he can handle the cut back to seven furlongs. He was a close up third in a NY Stallion Series race at this distance last November after winning the Empire Classic.

Loki's Vengeance makes his first start since July where the five-year-old checked in fifth against optional claimers in the mud. He won at NY Stallion Series race here last November at this distance. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of 6 trips over the Big A main track. The Hushion barn is 19% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,4,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 The Cary Grant (3:59 PT)
#7 Gold Rush Dancer 3-1
#6 Acceptance 7-2
#2 Magic Mark 5-2
#9 Solid Wager 6-1

Analysis: Gold Rush Dancer cuts back from a nine furlong turf route where the colt tracked the early pace and weakened to finish ninth in the Twilight Derby (G2). Three back at this distance on the main track here he won the Real Good Deal in a sharp effort. He will appreciate the surface switch and the class drop. The barn is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.

Acceptance was a game winner of the California Flag last out against restricted foes going 6 1/2 downhill on turf. The colt was winning on turf for the first time in his sixth try and has shown to be better on dirt, having won three of five. He looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 6,7 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,6,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R5: #8 Now in a Drive 12-1
R6: #1 Wilbernmoney 12-1
R9: #3 Moonlit Cove 12-1
R9: #5 Complicit 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:15 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6950 - $10,000 CLAIMING WITH ALLOWANCES FOR NON-WINNERS 6 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 DESERT SUNSET 3/1
# 5 P L JADE 5/2
# 9 PHILANDTHEQUEENS 8/1

The pick today is DESERT SUNSET. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 75. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. The handicapping team noted a substantial outing out of this harness racer last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to take the whole enchilada. When the trainer Rousse puts Coppola up for the drive good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 22 win percent. P L JADE - Have to make Aldrich the wager here if only for the last thirty days win clip. Big probability for the trip to the winner's circle. More than likely think these two have a good thing going. Dessureault sending the horse out means a really good chance to get the top prize. PHILANDTHEQUEENS - Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster SRs averaging around 76. Surely the class of the field with an average rating of 75. A nice choice.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 12:10 - 1 1/4 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$18800 - NON-WINNERS OF $10,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $60,000 IN 2016 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $20,000 AE. 3& 4 YEAR OLD NON-WINNERS OF $100,000 LIFETIME. NOS. 9,10 START FROM 2ND TIER #9 VEGLIANTINO & #10 DREAM ROCKER WILL START FROM THE 2ND TIER.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 SUMATRA 3/1
# 5 SOUL TRAIN 9/1
# 4 NORTHERN OBSESSION 6/1

SUMATRA is the most solid wager in this contest. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 90 speed rating. Has a strong shot for this one, if he can repeat his back racing class. The 2 position sports a better than expected win percent at Yonkers Raceway. SOUL TRAIN - Take a long look at making this horse your win wager based on well above average win percent alone. A nice class horse can't be glossed over. With an avg class figure of 89 all signs point to this one being the winner. NORTHERN OBSESSION - That 91 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the last competition puts this race horse in the mix in this contest. Driver-trainer are a potent duet when teaming up on a common fine animal. 12 percent ROI within the recent past.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, AND IF IT HAS MORE THAN TEN ENTRANTS, THE DISTANCE WILL BE ONE MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 JOHNNIE B 6/1

# 6 ULTRA FAME 6/1

# 10 JAYHAWKER 4/1

JOHNNIE B looks to be a respectable contender. He has garnered very strong numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. Is a key contender - given the 92 speed figure from his most recent race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. ULTRA FAME - Shows reliable speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses in this race. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. JAYHAWKER - I would give the nod to this gelding on the jock and handler numbers alone. With Cedillo aboard him, this gelding should be able to break out early in this race.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 5 MOVE OVER 8/1

# 10 MACHITO 5/1

# 4 RUNAWAY PEPPER 4/1

MOVE OVER is my choice and is a formidable value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Seems to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept. MACHITO - Could beat this group given the 83 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Have to assume this one will make a good showing following the quick major improvement. RUNAWAY PEPPER - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been very good - 83 avg - of late. Should be carefully examined here if only for the very good speed rating recorded in the last contest.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#8 RANCHO VIEJO (ML=9/2)
#9 DANCING LION (ML=4/1)
#6 RIGHTEOUS PLACE (ML=6/1)


RANCHO VIEJO - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a good race on Nov 9th, finishing second. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make his presence felt. DANCING LION - This gelding is in fine physical condition. Ended up first on Oct 29th. This animal brings in a lot of money per start. Number one in this contest. RIGHTEOUS PLACE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a strong outing last time out within the last thirty days. While the finish was disappointing, this beautiful animal made a good stretch move in the last race at Mountaineer Park. Expect better in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ZA WOODMAN (ML=7/5), #7 JO DANCER (ML=8/1),

ZA WOODMAN - This morning-line favorite hasn't raced or worked at the track in awhile. No works since last race. JO DANCER - Hard to back any animal with deteriorating speed ratings of 79/66/63. This horse notched a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #8 RANCHO VIEJO on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#2 FORGED SIGNATURE (ML=8/1)
#3 PARADE FLOAT (ML=5/1)
#7 ILLUSION'S RULE (ML=6/1)


FORGED SIGNATURE - This gelding should give a good account of himself in today's race. PARADE FLOAT - You'll be making money right and left by turning your cash onto this rider/conditioner combination. This animal didn't run well on the mud in his last start at Indiana Downs. You probably should throw out that showing. ILLUSION'S RULE - This rider and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they team up. Faced tougher last time out at Churchill Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SCISSORS AND TAPE (ML=9/5), #9 STORY ONTHE STREET (ML=5/1), #6 MICHAEL (ML=6/1),

SCISSORS AND TAPE - The Equibase speed figures continue to drop, 85/77/59. Not a healthy indication. Finished eleventh in his most recent race with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. STORY ONTHE STREET - Ran well to finish first on October 28th, but hasn't had nary a single morning drill since then. He only beat a maiden claiming field in the last clash. Have to pass on this thoroughbred versus winners for now. MICHAEL - This gelding finished off the board on September 29th and wasn't close to victory last out either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #2 FORGED SIGNATURE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

2 with [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST

New York Stallion Stakes - Thunder Rumble Division

#6 EMPIRE DREAMS
#7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE
#1 BUST ANOTHER
#2 CLOUD CONTROL

The New York Stallion Series was created by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. The Thunder Rumble is named for the colt who in 1992 became the first New York-bred to win the Travers. He was described as a "sensation at Saratoga" for his wins in the Jim Dandy, Travers, and Saratoga Cup Handicap. Here in the 10th running of The Rumble ... #6 EMPIRE DREAMS takes a class drop (-9), is the overall speed leader, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, with four of those "board hit efforts," including wins in both his 3rd and 5th races back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #7 LOKI'S VENGEANCE, a 4-1 shot, has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in four, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.
 
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Yonkers: Sunday 11/20 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 410 - 1182 / $2,223.50

BEST BETS: 54 - 96 / $177.40

Best Bet: ITS A GOOD THING (8th)

Spot Play: SIM BROWN (5th)


Race 1

(7) HEMI SEELSTER dominated last week and looked like he could have gone around five more times; Milici trainee will be moving early and gets the call to topple the mighty (8) BEE A MAGICIAN. The latter has come back from injury strong and should be very fresh this late in the season with only six starts on the year. (10) DOT DOT DOT DASH gets Kakaley back in the bike and could be a closing threat at a price.

Race 2

(6) SWISHNFLICK was driver MacDonald's choice of four in here and they teamed up to win at this level and this distance three back. (2) BINGO QUEEN closed strongly once shaking free and just missed last week; mare is always a threat when she minds her manners. (10) ZORGWIJK NOVA looks for three straight but she'll have to work a bit harder moving to the lead from the second tier.

Race 3

(2) SUMATRA raced well to secure second after leaving for a seat from the outside post last week; from the inside draw he should be in line for a perfect trip today. (3) BENTLEY SPUR has been on quite a roll but arguably faces tougher here despite racing for less money. (5) SOUL TRAIN has shown renewed vigor recently; threat.

Race 4

(4) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT trotted evenly for a board spot versus better last out and a silimar effort would make him tough in here. (5) LO RAIL CROSSING was a sharp winner off the Banca claim and Bartlett sticks with him. (6) WENDY'S GIRL has raced well in her last two for Burke, including last week's runner-up effort at a big price.

Race 5

(4) SIM BROWN goes second start for new connections and raced decently last week; he picks up leading driver Bartlett today. (3) MOVEMENT was reclaimed by Laterza and picked up another win last week; trotter is razor-sharp and can clearly take another. (1) YOZHIK is lightly raced but has flashed ability on occasion.

Race 6

(5) WELL CONNECTED KID ships in and debuts for Milici while luring Bartlett off three other horses; trotter has raced well here in the past. (2) DREAMSTEELER closed strongly inside last week to win and can certainly repeat. (1) EMPIRE EARL makes his fourth U.S. start and may have more to offer.

Race 7

(3) JOSIE'S JOY ships from the midwest for the Lorentzon barn and that angle has worked in the past. (1) KLM EXPRESS has a lot of mileage on him but he's still competitive. (4) MASSIVE TALENT has raced reasonably well for board spots in his last three.

Race 8

(2) ITS A GOOD THING is back at the basement claiming level where he was an open-lengths winner two back. (8) ADDWATER goes for another new barn and he's been sharp in all recent; only problem here is the post. (5) ETHAN HANOVER is making his third start off the layoff and he's got some back class.

Race 9

(1) INVICTUS HANOVER takes a drop in class despite racing well with better and he looms large from the best post. (4) GRIN FOR MONEY jogged in two starts since shipping from Canada and joining the Milici barn. (3) HIGH JOLTAGE has been racing well but Dube opted off.

Race 10

(3) SPINARAMA has back class and I like the switch to Bartlett. (1) LAUXMONT CAPRI returns from upstate and he's raced well here in the past. (8) BEST SAID is stuck with the worst post but he's got solid early speed which could get him into play.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (3rd) Caledonian, 5-1
(9th) Divine Miss Grey, 4-1


Churchill Downs (1st) Ultra Arumba, 7-2
(9th) Modify, 6-1


Del Mar (1st) Queenofhercastle, 4-1
(7th) Bolitar, 6-1


Fair Grounds (1st) Run Away Ralph, 9-2
(6th) Ukuru, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Pretty Emma, 4-1
(9th) Ultra Fame, 6-1


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Joey Six Pick, 3-1
(10th) Caddy Cat, 7-2


Laurel (3rd) Finito, 5-1
(9th) Faze the Nation, 9-2


Mountaineer (4th) Amanda Marie, 5-1
(9th) Chance of Reign, 7-2


Parx Racing (1st) Far Out West, 7-2
(9th) Cinco Zippy, 7-2


Turf Paradise (6th) Bear Famous Trip, 6-1
(7th) Rallydownthealley, 7-2


Woodbine (4th) Leading Wild, 10-1
(9th) Unseen Angels, 3-1
 

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