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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 11

After last week's article had the shortest list of underdogs on it, it was a bit surprising to see two of the three win outright and the 49ers doing what they could to make it a clean sweep. Miami and Seattle sealed their victories in the final minute and bettors that weren't afraid to eschew the points and play those money lines were handsomely rewarded.

This week it's a much bigger list of NFL underdogs getting four points or more as we welcome the Cleveland Browns to the festivities once again. As I've been saying for weeks, Cleveland isn't worth a ML play until they prove that they can actually win a game, so no need to go any further on them this week.

Week 11 Underdogs That Qualify

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5); ML (+220)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5); ML (+230)
Chicago Bears (+7.5); ML (+280)
Baltimore Ravens (+7); ML (+275)
Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+280)
San Francisco 49ers (+13); ML (+625)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5); ML (+250)
Houston Texans (+6); ML (+205)

Right off the bat we can eliminate the 49ers (along with the Browns) as they are in the same category as Cleveland these days and might actually be the worse overall team. San Fran hosts a New England team fresh off their first loss with Tom Brady and there is no way you want to get in front of that train. That leaves six teams on the list and all of them have intriguing matchups this week.

Houston is in Oakland on MNF and get a rested Raiders team off their bye. The Texans won in Jacksonville last week despite QB Brock Osweiler throwing for just 99 yards in the game as his road struggles appear to be never ending. Although Houston did prove they could win on the road last week, there is no way I'm considering a ML bet on them this week.

Speaking of Jacksonville, the Jags are on the road to face another team coming off their bye in the Detroit Lions. The Lions find themselves in a tie for 1st in the NFC North and QB Matthew Stafford has had a resurgent year now that he's looking for the open receiver and not just if Calvin Johnson is open. We could see quite a few points put up here and Jacksonville definitely has a shot.

It's been a few years since the Lions were used to being a winning team and having the bye could have killed much of the momentum they've been building. For all their struggles, Jacksonville has been a much better football team away from home and could surprise some this week.

The other four teams (Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) are all on the road as well and have some difficult matchups. But of those four, the two teams I'm willing to roll with on the ML are Baltimore (+275) in Dallas, and Tampa Bay (+230) in Kansas City.

Baltimore gets to take their shot at a Cowboys team that appears to have put the Dak Prescott/Tony Romo story behind them at least for this week. Dallas hasn't lost since Week 1 when they fell to the Giants, but eventually that bubble will burst and this could be the week.

Four of Dallas' last five games have been against tough opponents (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Cincinnati), and after this Baltimore game they've got a short week for a Thanksgiving matchup with division rival Washington, followed by road games at Minnesota and at NY Giants. All of their success has finally started to see a bit of line inflation with the Cowboys and a veteran Ravens team is more than capable of knocking them off and reopening the Prescott/Romo debate once again.

Tampa Bay got their first home victory of the year a week ago, but this would be more of a play against a Kansas City team that I'm not a big believer in. Carolina basically handed the Chiefs the win on Sunday and the rate at which KC has been forcing/recovering turnovers is unsustainable.

The Bucs are still in the thick of things in the NFC South and a huge win this week could propel them to a final six week stretch where they are playing meaningful football for the first time in years. At +230, the value is there, especially when the Chiefs could be looking past the Bucs a little bit and ahead to their game at Denver in Week 12.

So look for one of Baltimore (+275), Tampa Bay (+230), or Jacksonville (+220) to come away with the outright upset this week as playoff races heat up and the parity in the 2016 NFL season continues to grow.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 51.5)

Saints' second-half success vs. Panthers' poor post-halftime showing

This should be a good one - at least for those who love offense - as the Saints and Panthers do battle in a showdown between NFC South rivals. The teams combined for a whopping 79 points in their first encounter this season, and similar fireworks could be in the offing in what Vegas has pegged as one of the highest-scoring games of the week. And while the Saints have shown an aptitude for scoring late, the Panthers will need to figure it out to avoid a season sweep.

Led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have been one of the most prolific second-half teams in the league through the first 10 weeks of the campaign. New Orleans ranks second in the NFL at 15.1 points after halftime per game, behind only the division-rival Atlanta Falcons (16.1). The Saints overcame a sluggish start last week with 20 second-half points, but ultimately fell short in a 25-23 loss to the Denver Broncos.

That bodes poorly for the Panthers, who have shown improvement on defense since the early weeks of the season but has struggled when it comes to preventing points after the break. Carolina is coughing up 16 second-half points per game on average; only the San Diego Chargers (17.2) have been more generous in that regard. Brees and the Saints have proven to be nearly unstoppable in the second half of games - and the Panthers aren't equipped to deal with it.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52)

Titans' sack-happy ways vs. Colts' QB protection issues

Second place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday afternoon as the Titans' improving defense meets Andrew Luck and the high-octane Colts in Indianapolis. This game could very well be decided by how well Indianapolis can protect its franchise quarterback - and judging by the sack stats through the first 10 weeks of the season, Luck might find himself on the run - or worse, on his back - a healthy number of times.

The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent. Veteran linebackers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan led the way in that regard, combining for 15.5 sacks and 114 sack yards lost. And when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks in hostile territory, Tennessee is even better - recording the third-best road sack rate (8.57 percent) in the league.

Meanwhile, the Colts may possess one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in football, but keeping Luck upright has been a legitimate problem so far in 2016. Indianapolis has the highest sack rate against in the league at 8.68 percent; Indianapolis has yielded 33 sacks through the first 10 games, even after limiting Tennessee to just two in a 34-26 win over the Titans back on Oct. 24. Things should be much tougher for Luck and the Colts this time around.

Daily fantasy watch: Tennessee D/ST

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 40.5)

Dolphins' red-zone stinginess vs. Rams' lack of scoring chances

Don't look now, but the Dolphins have rekindled their fading playoff hopes on the strength of a four-game winning streak that has surged them above the .500 mark for the season. At the same time, the Los Angeles Rams are clinging to postseason hopes by a thread despite escaping with a thrilling 9-6 win over the New York Jets last week. The Rams have struggled getting into the red zone all season, and things don't get any easier this weekend.

Much of the attention for the Miami resurgence has fallen on running back Jay Ajayi, but the Dolphins' defense deserves just as much credit - if not more. Miami enters the week ranked sixth in the NFL in fewest red-zone visits allowed per game at just 2.9; only Baltimore, Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets have been stingier. It's a modest improvement from the 2015 campaign, when the Dolphins allowed 3.1 opponent red-zone visits per game.

As for the Rams, well, they're about as bad as you would expect them to be given their widespread scoring troubles. Los Angeles is tied with the Ravens for the fewest red-zone scoring chances per game at 2.3; the Cleveland Browns are the only other team below 2.5. And if you can believe it, that rate is actually better than what the Rams put up in their last season in St. Louis, when they made just 2.2 red-zone visits per game. Ugh.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Todd Gurley

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 46)

Texans' interior D-line troubles vs. Raiders' stacked O-line

The Raiders find themselves in a three-horse race atop the AFC West in what has shaped up as the best division race in the league. Coming into the week tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and a half-game ahead of the Denver Broncos, Oakland faces a stiff test in Week 11 against a Texans team that has the outright lead in the AFC South. But the Raiders have an enormous advantage it will look to exploit against visiting Houston this weekend.

Oakland has built one of the most impressive offensive lines in the game, a group that deserves much of the credit for the successes of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Three of the team's five starting O-linemen - LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Rodney Hudson - have Pro Football Focus grades of 84.8 or better. Simply put, the left side of the Raiders' offensive line is second only to the Dallas Cowboys' front.

Houston has elite ends to counter the Oakland periphery - DRE Jadeveon Clowney (79.2 PFF grade) and DLE Whitney Mercilus (83.9) are certainly capable of pressuring the quarterback. But the interior duo of DRT Vince Wilfork (45.7) and DLT Christian Covington (42.3) is among the worst in the league, and could make things incredibly difficult for the Texans' next level of defense, particularly against Oakland's stout rush attack.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Eagles-Seahawks in Defensive Struggle'

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks November 20, 4:25 EST

The last time the Philadelphia Eagles visited the Seattle Seahawks, the quarterbacks were Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson. That was five years ago; this Sunday's rematch (4:25 PM ET, CBS) in Seattle will look remarkably different, with rookie Carson Wentz piloting the Eagles and three-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson leading the Seahawks.

Here's another big difference: Seattle (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) was a 3-point home dog in that 2011 contest. At press time, the 'Hawks are 6.5-point favorites for Sunday's tilt with a total of 44.5. Although these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, the OVER is 5-4 for each team in 2016; the Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) have padded their stats with two kick returns for touchdowns, plus a pick-six and a safety. Seattle has just the lone fumble return thus far.

It speaks to the quality of the two quarterbacks in question. Wilson hasn't done much scrambling this year, but his passing game is still Top 10 in the league according to efficiency. Wentz is holding his own for a rookie; however, his numbers for the year are those of a replacement-level quarterback. Philly's defense and special teams are the ones driving the bus.

Trends of Interest:

Eagles 1-9 ATS vs NFC West
Eagles 0-6 ATS off a win facing NFC West
Eagles 0-4 ATS after playing Falcons
Eagles 3-8-1 O/U off W vs NFC West

Seahawks 8-3-1 ATS off upset win as Dog
Seahawks 6-2 ATS vs NFC East
Seahawks 3-7 O/U after B-2-B SU/ATS wins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Cowboys face tough test'

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys November 20, 1:00 EST

The Cowboys (8-1 SU/ATS) off one of the most exciting games of the season defeating Steelers 35-30 as a 3-point road underdog are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS since dropping their season opener. Baltimore spanking league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter has posted back-to-back division wins to lead the muddled AFC North with a 5-4 (4-5 ATS) record.

Cowboys will be tested against Baltimore's top-ranked run defense (71.3 RYG), 5th-ranked pass 'D' (210.2 PYG). But, with Ezekiel Elliott seemingly unstoppable, Prescott playing mistake-free football edge remains with the home town 'Boys'

Consider Dallas who has been good bets in this situation. The Cowboys have cashed four straight off an upset win as Dogs, have a sparkling 11-3 record ATS following a win the previous effort, 5-0 ATS streak vs an AFC North opponent. A final few betting nuggets favoring Cowboys. NFC East has dominated at the betting window this season facing the AFC North posting a money-making 10-1 record against the betting line. Baltimore is not in a situation you can hang your hopes on. Ravens enter a money-burning 0-6-1 ATS off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, a cash-draining 0-9-1 ATS facing a squad off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, 1-4-1 ATS vs non-conference foes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
By Micah Roberts

The betting public in Las Vegas is jumping on their favorites teams in NFL Week 11 again hooking up Dallas, New England and whoever is playing the Browns and 49ers, and why not because that combination is 30-7 against-the-spread this season. But before we get into the line moves initiated from sharps and what the public is playing on their parlays, let's talk a bit about the cold front hitting the northeast this weekend.

We haven't had to pay too much attention to weather conditions the first 10 weeks of the season because its been relatively nice everywhere, for the most part. But snow fell in Denver on Thursday night (Broncos have a bye this week) and a couple of NFL games this weekend should have weather play a role in the outcome, in particular the totals.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the cold and snow isn't that big of deal when dealing the sides and totals, but when factoring in wind conditions, that's when it has a huge effect to the numbers. Its a good piece of advice to follow, and sharps are.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers as 9.5-point favorites at Cleveland, a number inflated just because the books know who the masses are going to bet. The total opened at 49.5. But with a 40 percent chance of snow showers and gusting winds off the lake up to 30 mph and a wind chill of 28 degrees, the Steelers are now -8 and the total has been dropped to 44.5. No matter how good a QB is, 30 mph winds are a tall task to overcome.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said sharp action has the Browns once again, which isn't necessarily because of the weather, but because there was 2.5 to 3-points of value with them -- just like last Thursday against Baltimore. Stations opened the total Monday at 50 and large bets pushed them down daily to 44.5 by Friday which is what most books in town are showing.

The Westgate opened the Giants as six-point home favorites against the lowly Bears with a total at 47.5, and they've been bet up to -7.5 and the total has been bet down to 43.5 -- in part because of winds up to 25 mph with a wind chill at 38 degrees. McCormick says his books have taken lots of public action on the Giants.

Station books have also taken large bets on the Eagles-Seahawks 'under' from 46 down to 43. Not much wind is expected in Seattle, but there's a 40 percent chance of rain. The interesting part of that sharp move is that Philly has gone 'over' the total in all five of their road games and Russell Wilson looks healthy and comes off his best performance of the season at New England.

There's a 40 percent chance of light rain at San Francisco when the Patriots visit Sunday afternoon -- not much wind, but that's not why sharp money took the 49ers at +14 all the way down +12 which has a few books at -11.5 on Friday. Just like the inflated number against the Browns, the Patriots were inflated by 2.5 to 3-points just to make the public lay a bad number and attract large money on the value with the underdog. It worked. The 49ers ended and seven-game non-cover streak last week in a 23-20 last second loss at Arizona (-14).

McCormick said another sharp play among his 19 books in town was on the Vikings at home against the sluggish Cardinals. Minnesota is on a four-game losing streak, but large money bet them at +1, pick 'em, -1 and -1.5. They're currently the high Las Vegas number at -2 with a total at 40.

Stations top public plays are Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, Seattle and the Giants, but bettors were thrown a loop last week as Dallas (8-1 ATS) was their only team to come through. Bettors are also low on cash.

"Low handles so far this week after last weeks big win for the books," said McCormick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

Total bettors saw a stalemate in last week’s 14-game slate (7-7) and a couple of contests had some fortunate or unfortunate endings. The Chargers led the Dolphins 10-7 at halftime and ‘under’ bettors (49) were confident with that score but turnovers and big plays contributed to 38 points in the final 30 minutes.

Another game that turned at halftime was the Arizona-San Francisco matchup. The Cardinals led 20-10 at the break and the ‘over’ (47) was on a great pace. Sure enough, the worst defense in the league stifled the Cardinals to three points in the second half and the game stayed ‘under’ the number as the pair combined for six field goals. Through 10 weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 79-67-1 (54%) record.

Keep an Eye On!

-- The Bears have scored 20 or more points once this season but the Giants have allowed 21.6 points per game at home this season.

-- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season but all three ‘over’ winners took place on the road.

-- Including last week’s ‘over’ result versus Pittsburgh, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.

-- Something has to give on the total between Kansas City (Under 7-2) and Tampa Bay (Over 6-3) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

-- Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 the last four years in the previous game before their annual Thanksgiving Day battle. The offense averaged 17 PPG during this span, which has resulted in a 1-3 SU record.

Divisional Action

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts outlasted the Titans 34-26 on the road in Week 7 and the ’over’ (48 ½) connected with a big fourth quarter surge (27 points). Bettors are starting at a total of 53 for the rematch and while that number seems inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on recent form. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and it’s averaging 31.7 PPG during this span. Indianapolis has allowed 28.4 PPG this season, which is ranked 29th in the league. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the season and they’ve also leaned heavily to high side in their last 10 games off the bye (7-3). Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five between the pair. Lastly, every AFC South divisional matchup (6-0) has gone ‘over’ this season.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings. Despite being for offensive fireworks, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Cleveland has watched the ‘under’ cash the last two weeks, largely due to its offensive struggles. The Browns weak defense (419 YPG) makes you believe Pittsburgh can put up a crooked number and you can certainly argue that the Cleveland offense can overachieve against a weak Steelers defense (380 YPG). However, some bettors have already bet into the ‘under’ and knocked the total from 49 ½ down to 45 as of Friday evening. Why? The latest weather reports are predicting a 40% chance of snow showers and wind gusts up 30 MPH, the latter being the bigger factor.

Headed West

Week 11 will featured three East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone on Sunday. Including last week’s outcome between the Dolphins and Chargers, the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in these matchups. Three of the ‘under’ winners came from Arizona, who is a perfect 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home this season.

Coincidentally, all three of these totals have been knocked down and two of them due to possible poor weather, which was talked about in-depth in the weekly Vegas Money Moves piece.

Miami at Los Angeles: The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast this week as they look to pull off the California sweep after defeating San Diego last Sunday. The Rams defense (327 YPG) is a big step up in class for Miami, who could have two starters out on the offensive line. Los Angeles has the worst scoring offense (15.4 PPG) in the league and it would be surprising if rookie QB Jared Goff can improve on that number in his first NFL start.

New England at San Francisco: Even though rain is expected in the forecast for this matchup, can San Francisco really slow down New England? The Patriots were held to 24 last week but they’re still averaging 32 PPG since QB Tom Brady returned. San Francisco’s defense had it second-best performance of the season last week and still allowed 23 in a loss at Arizona. Knowing the Patriots visit the Jets next week and they’re coming off a tough loss to Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get in and get out of this game healthy. Also, New England won’t have offensive weapons TE Rob Gronkowski or WR Chris Hogan available for Sunday.

Philadelphia at Seattle: This total has dropped from 46 to 43 due to the aforementioned weather reports. The ‘Hawks have put up 31 points in each of their last two games and the offense has played better at home. Philadelphia’s defense has been great at home (9.5 PPG) but very shaky on the road (24.4 PPG). Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at CenturyLink Field and the Eagles have gone 4-0-1 to the ‘over’ as visitors.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and of the three nights, Monday continues to be the best lean for the low side with a 7-3-1 record. Including this past Thursday’s result between Carolina and New Orleans, the ‘under’ as gone 17-14-1 this season.

Green Bay at Washington: This total is hovering between 49 and 50 points at most books and all signs on paper point to the high side. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and that includes a 5-0 mark at FedEx Field. Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and its surrendered 33, 31 and 47 points during this span. The Packers beat the Redskins 35-18 in the first round of the playoffs last year at D.C. and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle, the Green Bay defense is expected to be healthier this week and the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their first two games versus NFC East foes this season.

Houston vs. Oakland (from Mexico City): Based on the total (46) and the tendencies we’ve seen from Houston, the number tells me that this game will play to the tempo of the Texans. Houston scored a season-high on the road last week when it beat Jacksonville 24-21 but seven of those points came from the defense. So with that effort, the offense has only scored 39 points in four games outside of Houston this season. We can’t dismiss the fact that Oakland has been a great ‘over’ team (7-2) based on a solid offense and weak defense. However, I believe the venue will play a factor and the high altitude (7,350 ft) could have both teams gassed in the second-half. For what it’s worth, Houston scored nine points at Mile High (Denver - 5,280 ft) in Week 7 and Oakland put up 15 and 14 in its last two trips to Colorado.

Fearless Predictions

I caught some luck last week as the Denver team total slid ‘over’ with a two-point conversion from its defense. That win made up for the dismal performance by Arizona in the second-half. After the dust settled, we turned a small profit ($190) and cut into the overall bankroll ($50). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 52 ½

Best Under: Baltimore-Dallas 45

Best Team Total: Under Detroit 26 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 53 ½ Baltimore-Dallas
Under 55 Houston-Oakland
Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Seattle

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

I turned 30 this week.

I suppose that means I should start to realize that my dream of making the NBA as the second coming of Steve Nash is finally dead.

Seriously though, turning 30 years old didn’t really bother me the way I had seen it affect others. Maybe that has something to with the fact I was thrown a killer surprise party by my girlfriend, complete with oyster shucking and martini bar.

Or maybe, it’s because I got a great birthday present from the gambling gods, with my underdog picks going 3-0 SU and ATS on my big Three-Ohhh.

Considering dogs went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS last week, I would have felt pretty terrible if I couldn’t nail down at least three of them. So, kind of like a surprise party you had a feeling was coming, while not completely unexpected, the results are more than welcome.

Not as surprising, is how bad the AFC South has been this season.

The Tennessee Titans, at 5-5, are still in contention for the division title and sit in second place behind the 6-3 Houston Texans. They face a critical road game at 4-5 Indianapolis, one the Titans need to win if they want to keep pace.

Tennessee has won four of its last six games thanks to two things: running the football and the meteoric rise of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota.

While it should be noted one of those losses was a 34-26 defeat as 4-point home favorites at the hands of the Colts, Mariota has been tremendous during that six-game stretch. He's completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.

Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is enjoying Music City, giving the Titans the league’s third-best rush offense at 145.2 yards per game. He should continue to roll this week, matching up against a Colts rush defense that gives up 114.9 yards per game.

Let’s not forget the Titans rank fifth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and go against a brutal Colts offense line that has left Andrew Luck battered, allowing a NFL worst 33 sacks this season.

I think the Titans continue to surprise this week. Try to look shocked when they cover.

Pick: Titans +3

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

These teams are mirror images of each other and not in a good way. Both were considered NFC contenders, have top-ranked defenses, and are currently struggling.

After starting the season a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, the Vikings have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, scoring just 14 points per game in the process.

They rank dead last in total offense and rushing yards, which seems insane when we are talking about the Vikings, but that’s what happens when you lose several offense lineman to injury. Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy is missed pretty sorely right about now.

Meanwhile, although Arizona is coming off a win, it was an uninspiring 23-20 home victory over a San Francisco squad that was a 13.5-point dog and is just 1-1-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last three games.

So while this appears to be an even matchup in the futility department, I have a little more faith in the Cardinals, mainly because their problems seem fixable.

Arizona’s big issue this season has been turnovers. The Cardinals rank seventh in total offense, but 20th in points per game at 22.4. With all other things being equal, the Cardinals have the much better offense and if they can hold on to the ball, they not only cover but win outright.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5

Green Bay Packers (+3) at Washington

Talk about not seeing it coming. The Green Bay Packers' struggles could be the stunner of the season so far.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like the quarterback we all know, there's been a revolving door of running backs in Green Bay, and the Packers have lost three in row, allowing 37 points per game in that stretch. They're going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL Sunday night. Did I mention they head into Washington, which has revenge on its mind after the Packers knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season? No. Well, there's that too.

Yet I still like the Packers. Surprise!

This is mostly a “can they actually be that bad?” play, plus I think Rodgers wants to show everyone he’s still got it on national television.

Pick: Packers +3

Last Week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Big NFL home pups putting the 'Under' in underdogs
By JASON LOGAN

The quality of NFL football isn’t as big a concern to sports bettors as it is to the general public.

That’s why we have the pointspread and total. It’s why we’ll sit through shit shows like Tennessee vs. Jacksonville on a Thursday night, when we should be doing something productive, like finally fixing the dryer door, reading to our kids, or finding out what that stink is in the garage.

Three times this week, while I was away in Chicago (possibly Ground Zero for poor pigskin), the lack of quality in professional football came up organically in conversations.

“I can’t sit through a NFL game anymore,” said one associate from North Carolina. “The NFL is just not exciting this season,” noted another from California. “There are no really ‘great’ teams,” stated a co-worker from New York, not knowing I’m a Cowboys fan (We’re 8-1 dude!).

Whether you empathize with those thoughts or not, Week 11 of the schedule is not helping the NFL’s cause.

There are currently seven games on the board with spreads of 6.5 points or higher (Oakland is giving six points to Houston Monday), a calculated expectation of how close – or entertaining - these contests will be: Baltimore is getting a touchdown in Dallas, Jacksonville is +6.5 at Detroit, Tampa Bay is +7.5 at Arrowhead, Chicago is +7.5 visiting the Giants, and Philadelphia is +6.5 going up against the 12th Man at CenturyLink.

As for the other two teams getting 6.5 or more points, they’re in rare company as their Week 11 matchups are being held at home. The Cleveland Browns are +8 hosting Pittsburgh and the San Francisco 49ers are getting 11.5 points from the Patriots (opened as +14).

It’s tempting to jump all over those big home dogs, but you gotta remember they’re getting that many points for a reason – they’re terrible, terrible teams. In fact, home pups of +6.5 or more are just 29-32 ATS since 2013 (14-47 SU), losing by an average score of 26.6-17.5 – more than a 9-point difference.

But take that average final score, which adds up to 44.1 points, and size it up against the average betting total in those games (46.24) and you’ll discover that since 2013, games involving a home underdog of 6.5 or more points have gone Under the total 64 percent of the time.

Those qualifying contests have produced a 22-39 Over/Under mark, including an amazing 4-16 Over/Under record in the past two years (2015 to 2016), which is a golden 80 percent Under windfall. Those 20 games have seen the average final score plummet to 39.9 points per game versus an average betting total of 46.5, giving Under backers nearly a touchdown of head room (6.6).

There have been four home underdogs of +6.5 or more so far this season (Cleveland +7 vs. Dallas, Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. New England, Miami +10 vs. Pittsburgh, Cleveland +10 vs. New England), and each of those games finished below the total.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland opened with a total of 49.5 points but that has since been bet down to 44.5. New England and San Francisco opened their Over/Under number at 51.5 and that’s down to 51 points.

Is it that bad?

Returning to the above comments about the declining quality of football in the 2016 NFL season, if the pointspread is any indication of how close – or exciting – a game is supposed to be, this is shaping up to be the most entertaining NFL season of the last seven years.

There have been only 35 games with spreads of 6.5 points or higher as of Week 11, which is 10 less than at this point in the 2015 season when 45 contests towed hefty chalk. There were 50 games in this range in the first 11 weeks of the 2014 season, 51 in 2013, 50 in 2012, a whopping 61 in 2011, and 47 games with spreads of 6.5 or higher in 2010.

There is a level of parity among NFL teams that we’ve not seen in a long time, but parity doesn’t always mean quality. Good teams could be getting a little worse, and bad teams could be getting a little better. And what we’re left with is a vanilla mush in which only 10 teams have a winning percentage over .600 – and just three of those call the NFC home.

Pound the ground

I had some pushback when tweeting out the rushing yards trends we’ve been tracking the last four weeks, the one in which NFL teams that surpass the league average in rushing yards in a game are 70-36-3 ATS in those contest this season (66%). That includes an 8-2 ATS record in Week 10 and a 22-7 ATS count (76%) the last three weeks. Yeah, that one.

The main beef that people had was “how are you supposed to know which teams will go over the league average in rushing yards for that game before kickoff?”

You don’t. But you can easily handicap each team’s running offense versus their opponent’s run defense, and look at how they’ve fared for/against on the ground in recent games. That should at least point you in the right direction (I can’t be here to hold your hand the whole time folks).

I’ve been leaning on this trend with my weekly plays and putting it to the true test in my pick’em league, simply picking which team I think has the best shot at rushing for more than the league mean (which is down to 106.5 rushing yards per game in Week 11). It’s proved profitable, leading me to a 24-16 ATS record since Week 9 – 60 percent – which is a drastic turnaround from my previous eight weeks.

This trend continued with Thursday’s game in Carolina, where the Saints lost on the scoreboard 23-20 but covered as 3.5-point road underdogs after rushing for 107 yards – just cracking the NFL season average in ground gains.

And again, for you skeptics, this is a long-term trend: from 2011 to 2015, teams that topped the season average in rushing yards in a game were 711-391-34 ATS in those contests, a proven 64.5 percent ATS winner.

Biggest move…

Miami at Los Angeles. The Dolphins opened as 1-point road underdogs for their second straight game on the left coast, but that line has since jumped to Miami -2 after Rams announced they’re starting rookie QB and No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff in Week 11.

“We took some bets on the Dolphins but also adjusted with the market,” says Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology. “The market was moving toward Miami so we moved too.”

Sharps like…

Minnesota. The Vikings also opened as 1-point underdogs hosting the Cardinals and sharp money has pushed this spread over the fence to Minnesota -2. According to Simbal, the way in which bets are placed with CG Technology books in Las Vegas – either through accounts or over the counter - tells you just who is betting what.

“So far, there’s 50 times more money on the Vikings through accounts, which are often the smarter players, and three times more money on the Cardinals over the counter, which is usually public bets,” says Simbal. “This is definitely sharping up to be a ‘Joes versus Pros’ game.”

Biggest sweat…

Pittsburgh at Cleveland. With both sharp money and public bets coming in on the Steelers, Simbal says the book is going to need the Browns Sunday – a statement you never want to utter in this business.

“We’re not in a great spot here,” he says. “We had some respected customers lay the -7.5 and the -8.5 and we know the public is going to be all over the Steelers.”

Banker game…

Philadelphia at Seattle. Usually, the Sunday nighter or the Patriots find themselves as the deciding game of the week for bookies, but with two-way action on Packers-Redskins and Rob Gronkowski’s absence actually drawing bets against New England, Eagles at Seahawks is the most important game on the board.

With a good chunk of parlays and teasers tied to the Seahawks at home, books will be keeping a close eye on this matchup. “We’ll need Philly,” says Simbal.

Injury to watch

Telvin Smith, LB Jacksonville Jaguars

Smith’s status for Week 11’s road game in Detroit (+6.5) is up in the air, but not due to injury. Rather, the Jaguars linebacker has been through some massive highs and lows – all of which were bigger than football - in the past week.

Smith, who’s a defensive captain and Jacksonville’s second leading tackler, lost his brother to a shooting in Georgia Sunday and then welcomed the birth of his son Wednesday. He was away from the team all week before reporting Friday and football fans will want to confirm his status as kickoff draws near.

“Is the plan having him play on Sunday?" Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley told reporters. "Well, he’s probable so we anticipate him, but I do know tomorrow is going to be very emotional and you do want to make sure that a player’s got the right mindset playing in the game.”

Smith has been a part of 97.6 percent of the Jags’ defensive snaps this season, has 10 tackles for a loss, and has broken up four passes. He has had at least five tackles in 29 straight games, including leading the team with six in last week’s loss to Houston.

We know how to pick’em

Despite plenty of big chalk on the board for Week 11, there are some lines out there tighter than an offensive lineman and skinny jeans. The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast after beating San Diego last week, opting not to travel across the country three times before playing Los Angeles Sunday. This spread opened Rams -1, but with Goff getting the nod under center for L.A., that line has jumped the fence to Fins -2.

If you’re also jumping back and forth – or sitting on that same fence – take off your handicapping hat and just go with what team you think has the hotter cheerleaders.

Sunday’s menu

I’ve been away most of the week, eating restaurant food and suffering the intestinal consequences because of it. A home cooked meal on a cozy NFL Sunday is just what the doctor ordered. That instantly triggers the smell of a slow-cooked pot roast. It’s like putting on a warm and fuzzy sweater… made of meat.

Easy (money) like Sunday morning

Last week, we left our fate in the hands of the gambling gods and flipped a coin on the Chicago-Tampa Bay game (which was chosen at random). The gods were good. The coin came up Tails, and the Bucs blasted the Bears 36-10 as 2.5-point home underdogs.

That has me up to 3-7 with my weekly pick – but more important, the coin is hitting 100 percent on the season. Can’t argue with results, so once again we ask: heads or tails?

OK, let’s pick a game at random (eyes closed and scrolling our matchup page). Chicago at New York it is!

Heads: Bears. Tails: Giants.

And the flip (courtesy of a 2001 Kentucky State quarter) is… HEADS! Oh shit.

Pick: Bears +7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 11 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

It's already Week 11 of the NFL season and with division races now factoring into games it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the Sunday schedule.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)

* A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.

* For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)

* Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.

* Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)

* T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.

* Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)

* The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.

* Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)

* Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.

* Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

* Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.

* The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)

* David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.

* Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)

* Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.

* The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)

* Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.

* One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)

* Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.

* San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)

* The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.

* With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 11

1) Baltimore +7 (596)
2) Miami -2.5 (516)
3) Tennessee +3 (509)
4) Minnesota PK (499)
5) Tampa Bay +7.5 (434)

SuperContest Week 11 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
New Orleans (+3.5) 155 Carolina (-3.5) 74
Tennessee (+3) 509 Indianapolis (-3) 280
Jacksonville (+6.5) 330 Detroit (-6.5) 282
Tampa Bay (+7.5) 434 Kansas City (-7.5) 131
Chicago (+7.5) 283 N.Y. Giants (-7.5) 227
Arizona (PK) 333 Minnesota (PK) 499
Buffalo (+2.5) 394 Cincinnati (-2.5) 292
Baltimore (+7) 596 Dallas (-7) 315
Pittsburgh (-8) 392 Cleveland (+8) 172
Miami (-2.5) 516 Los Angeles (+2.5) 331
New England (-13) 277 San Francisco (+13) 187
Philadelphia (+6.5) 300 Seattle (-6.5) 412
Green Bay (+2.5) 363 Washington (-2.5) 405
Houston (+5.5) 201 Oakland (-5.5) 430


Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

DETROIT -- The Detroit Lions have done a very good job at protecting the football and staging late-game rallies. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been woeful in both of those categories.

That's why the Lions are tied for first place in the NFC North and the Jaguars are wallowing at the bottom of the AFC South.

Detroit (5-4) will try to maintain at least a share of its division lead when it hosts Jacksonville (2-7) on Sunday at Ford Field.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has engineering fourth-quarter comebacks in all of the Lions' wins. They stunned Minnesota 22-16 in overtime in their last game on Nov. 6 after the Vikings grabbed the lead with 23 seconds remaining. A long pass play set up a tying 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater, and Stafford's 28-yard scoring pass to Golden Tate on the first possession of overtime finished off the latest comeback.

Detroit tied for the division lead without breaking a sweat last weekend, as Minnesota lost to Washington. But the Lions have not won a division title since 2013, and Stafford is quick to temper rising expectations.

"You start to see some of the separation in November and December with these teams," he said. "If you look at the big picture, it can be overwhelming. You just have to go week to week. That's what I would tell our young guys -- don't look ahead."

Another message he'll like to convey -- don't lose your grip on the ball. The Lions have committed just six turnovers and Stafford has a solid 18-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 67.3 percent of his throws.

"I'm just trying to make the best decisions I possibly can," he said. "I'm not going to be perfect with it. I wish I had thrown that ball away a little better two weeks ago (on an interception at Minnesota).

"There's still things I have to clean up but our guys have done a really nice job of fighting for the ball if it's contested and a really nice job of running with the proper leverage and holding onto the ball securely. All that kind of stuff is key."

It has been even more essential since Detroit's defense has only generated seven takeaways. The Lions finished 26th in turnover margin last season.

"That's obviously always something you stress," Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. "Sometimes there are tipped balls and things of that nature, but I still think you can keep it to a minimum. I think our guys are doing a good job of taking care of the ball right now, but that's a week-to-week thing, a week-to-week battle."

The Jaguars have consistently lost that battle, ranking at the bottom of the league with a minus-14 turnover margin. Quarterback Blake Bortles has been picked off 11 times and they've also lost eight fumbles.

Jacksonville carries a four-game losing streak to Detroit. The Jaguars have come close the past two weeks, falling to Kansas City 19-14 and Houston 24-21.

"It all boils down to turnovers," Bortles said. "That's what we've talked about. These past two weeks, we've gotten better in the areas we wanted to, and it's all come down to the turnovers and winning the turnover battle. That's kind of where our focus is now.

"There's a lot of good things we've done the past two weeks that have been overshadowed by not winning the game. Ultimately, we all know that's our goal and we've got to cut down on the turnovers."

Embattled head coach Gus Bradley is trying to keep his team from dwelling on how its season has fallen apart.

"You try not to look back too much," he said. "That can be dangerous and a waste of time. You need every minute of every day to prepare for the next opponent."

The matchup Sunday will likely be decided through the air. Neither team has a running back that has rushed for 300 yards this season.

Bortles has shouldered much of the blame for Jacksonville's failures, but Caldwell is well that the third-year quarterback has thrown 51 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.

"He's a fine young quarterback," Caldwell said. "I think our expectations sometimes are a little bit out of whack."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

It's been 24 seasons since the Kansas City Chiefs found a way to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The season opener of the 1993 season opener saw Kansas City travel to Tampa in the first Chiefs game for future Hall of Famers, quarterback Joe Montana and running back Marcus Allen. K.C. won easily, 27-3.

The Bucs (4-5) have since won four in a row against the Chiefs (7-2) and will try to push that streak to five games with their Sunday visit to Arrowhead Stadium. It's a noon kickoff CST, with weather predicted for sunny skies and temperatures in the 50s. Kansas City is a 71/2-point favorite.

The Chiefs have a few active streaks on the line as well. Since November 2015, the Chiefs are 17-2 in regular season games, a won-lost record that's three games better than the next most successful team. They've won five straight games this season and they're on a 10-game winning streak at Arrowhead Stadium.

Both teams are coming off victories -- the Buccaneers crushed Chicago 36-10, while the Chiefs fought back from a 17-0 deficit to beat Carolina on the road, 20-17. That victory gave them not only a piece of first place in the AFC West, but a share of first in the AFC with New England and Oakland. It was the second time this season where the Chiefs fought back from a 14-point deficit to start the fourth quarter and ended up winning. They are the only team in the league to do that through last week on the 2016 schedule.

The Chiefs results have been pumped up by their edge in the turnover ratio. They are plus-14 on takeaways/giveaways, the No. 1 team in the league. They have forced 22 turnovers and given opponents eight fumbles and interceptions, and have scored 72 points off those takeaways.

"It's important that you believe you can do that (force turnovers) and you practice it," said Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. "It probably goes just the same in reverse. You practice it, you do well in practice and then you go into a game and if you have some success with it you can build on it. The guys practice it. The coaches harp on it and the players take a lot of pride in it."

K.C.'s ball-hawking skills have certainly drawn the attention of the Buccaneers.

"When you watch the tape on these guys, especially their red zone tape, wow," said Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter. "Inside the 20, they really close it down on you. They're very aggressive with their hands, they get a lot of balls that they get popped up in the air, and somebody else might catch it. These guys are impressive."

The most impressive offensive player in the game is Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans, who enters the week ranked No. 6 among NFL receivers with 811 yards and fifth with 59 receptions. No other NFL receiver has been targeted more than Evans this season as his 108 targets have been 31 percent of Tampa Bay's attempts.

"Mike is just a superstar," said Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston. "His best traits are his ability to go attack the ball, his very sure hands and his competiveness. He always finds a way to get open. My job is to give him a catchable ball. Anywhere I throw it around him he's going to catch it."

In his second season as the leader of the Bucs offense, Winston is coming off one of his best performances, throwing for 312 yards, completing 69.7 percent of his passes, at an average of 9.5 yards an attempt with two touchdown throws.

"Jameis showed all sides of his game," Koetter said of his quarterback's play. "He showed his mobility, showed his toughness, showed his arm strength, showed his ability to read defense, showed his ability to see the field. The touchdown to Freddie Martino (43-yard play), he saw Freddie get behind the safety in the corner on the backside there. That was a great, unscripted play by Jameis."

Kansas City's offense will need a similar performance from Smith against Tampa Bay. After missing a game due to two blows to the head he suffered against Indianapolis, Smith returned last Sunday to play against Carolina and struggled throwing the ball. He missed on three throws to the end zone that could have been touchdowns. Smith averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt and only one completion went for more than 20 yards. He did not throw a touchdown pass, but did have an interception.

The resiliency the Chiefs have shown going 17-2 was built last season when they started 1-5, but won 10 straight to make the playoffs, the first team in NFL history to accomplish that feat. That allowed them to survive being down 17-0 in the first half against Carolina.

"The more you play in those types of games, and it gets down to crunch time, there's never a panic," said Smith. "We just go about our business. When we get into a fourth quarter, we've been there before so we can rely on fundamentals and what we've been coached to do."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is keeping his schedule clear for the first week of February.

The confident 24-year-old has a hunch that he might need to go on a business trip during that time.

"We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston," Beckham said to ESPN this week. "That's the goal, obviously. I feel real confident in this team. This defense is a Super Bowl defense. The offense, we're working to get better each and every day."

All of that could spell bad news for the Chicago Bears this weekend when the teams meet at MetLife Stadium.

The Giants (6-3) have won four games in a row -- with each victory coming by single digits -- and are aiming for their first five-game winning streak since 2011. Under first-year coach Ben McAdoo, the team is 4-1 at home and already has matched its six-win total from a season ago.

The outlook is not nearly as bright for the reeling Bears (2-7). Chicago has dropped four of its past five games and is 0-5 on the road this season as the team prepares to head east.

To make matters worse, the Bears will not have two of their best players on offense. Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long was placed on injured reserve this week after being carted off the field with a right ankle injury against Tampa Bay, and Pro Bowl wide receiver Alshon Jeffery will serve the first game of a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Even at full strength, the Giants defense would have been a tough test for Chicago.

New York has a plus-11 turnover ratio, which is the best in the NFL. The Giants have a top-10 rushing defense (92.1 yards allowed per game) and have held opponents to 20.4 points per game, which is No. 11 in the league.

Second-year safety Landon Collins has emerged as the best player on a strong defensive unit. Collins has racked up four interceptions, three sacks and 74 tackles in his first nine games of the season.

On paper, the Bears' offense does not match up well against the Giants' defense. Chicago has managed only 15.7 points per game, which is second-to-last in the NFL. Meanwhile, mercurial quarterback Jay Cutler is coming off his worst outing of the season as he threw two interceptions and fumbled twice against the Buccaneers.

Rookie running back Jordan Howard dinged up an ankle in Week 10 but returned to practice this week. If Howard regresses, look for the tandem of Jeremy Langford and Ka'Deem Carey to carry the ball for the Bears.

But who will catch Cutler's passes -- assuming they are on target?

With Jeffery suspended and Kevin White injured, the top receiving option for the Bears is tight end Zach Miller (44 receptions, 425 yards, 3 TDs). Meanwhile, wide receivers Cam Meredith and Marquess Wilson likely will see more action on the outside.

Meredith, 23, joined the team in 2015 as an undrafted free agent out of Illinois State. The 6-foot-3, 207-pound flanker has impressed coach John Fox this season as he has caught 29 passes for 381 yards and two touchdowns.

"He's got good length," Fox said. "He has a good feel for pass coverage as far as getting on a (defensive back's) feet, the kind of things it takes to get open. He's a young guy that continues to work very hard to improve, and he's getting rewarded for that with playing time."

When the Giants have the ball, look for Beckham to stretch the field and try to create havoc against the Bears' young secondary. Beckham leads New York with 54 catches for 773 yards and six touchdowns, including three scores in his past two games.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning has benefited from Beckham's brilliance, but the 35-year-old also has made some careless mistakes in recent weeks. He has thrown two interceptions in three of his last four games.

In the backfield, Giants running back Rashad Jennings is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. However, Jennings showed flashes last week as he rushed 15 times for 87 yards (5.8 yards per carry) in a win over Cincinnati.

So could the Giants be a Super Bowl squad? Maybe, maybe not.

But the coach does not mind his star player's public confidence.

"That's our goal," McAdoo told the New York Daily News. "That's why we come to work every day. We want to make sure we get here and put our work in, put our time in.

"But we have a lot of work to do until we get to that point. It's good to have aspirations."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinals (4-4) at Vikings (5-4)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

MINNEAPOLIS - When the season began, the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings were expected to be among the top teams in the NFC.

The two teams had Super Bowl aspirations with talented rosters coming off last year's playoff appearances. Minnesota started the year 5-0, while Arizona was 1-3 a month into the season.

Since their undefeated start, the Vikings have lost four games in a row. The Cardinals (4-4-1) have used two wins against the San Francisco 49ers to jumpstart the second half of the season.

Despite the differing paths, there is still a road to playoff contention as they meet Sunday in Minnesota.

"We've been fortunate with some of the other things that have happened in the league that we're still in a good place," Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said. "We can go out and win. I know everybody thinks I'm crazy, but my goal is to win the division. So, go out and get some wins and get going again. That's all.

"The last two ball games have been (close and), honestly, could go either way. We didn't win them, so we just need to get a couple of these either-way games and win. That's kind of what happened at the beginning of the season. So, it's a seven-game season now."

Minnesota is tied for the NFC North lead with the Detroit Lions at 5-4. Arizona is two games behind Seattle in the NFC West but still in prime wild card position.

Both teams have dealt with plenty of injuries, which will also impact Sunday's game.

The Vikings lost left tackle Jake Long for the rest of the season when he injured his Achilles in last week's 26-20 loss at Washington. Long, signed as a street free agent in September, had already been an injury replacement at left tackle after starter Matt Kalil was lost after two games.

Zimmer hasn't revealed his plans for his battered offensive line on Sunday. Jeremiah Sirles could join the starting lineup. Minnesota, which has also lost right tackle Andre Smith for the season, has T.J. Clemmings at the other tackle.

"We've definitely been a little bit unfortunate as far as some of the injuries that we've had up front," quarterback Sam Bradford said. "But like we've done in the past, we just have to keep moving forward. Obviously, Sirles and T.J., they started a couple of games together so we feel confident in them because they've been out there, they've done it before. They've played a lot of football. As bad as this is to continue to lose guys you've just got to try to stay positive and just keep moving forward."

Arizona's injuries have hit hardest in the secondary.

Safety Deone Bucannon missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury. Defensive back Tyrann Mathieu was limited in Wednesday's practice with a shoulder injury. Mathieu missed last week's game with the injury.

"My shoulder feels fine, it's stable for the moment," Mathieu told the Arizona Republic. "I'll continue to put it to work during practice and see where I'm at, at the end of the week."

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians and Zimmer know each other well dating back to their time as coordinators in the AFC North. Arians was the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator facing Zimmer's defenses for the Cincinnati Bengals.

"I've always respected Zim as one of the most sound, aggressive defensive coaches that I've ever gone against...They don't beat themselves," Arians said via conference call. "I think our defense, our defensive line is playing at a very high level right now. I think both offensive lines have their work cut out for them."

Arizona owns the league's second-ranked defense in terms of yardage, one spot ahead of Zimmer's Minnesota crew. The Cardinals are allowing 295.2 yards per game compared to the Vikings' 308.8 yards per game. But Minnesota is giving a league-low 16.9 points per game. Arizona is tied for third, giving up 17.8 points per game.

"I think this is going to be one of our biggest challenges of the year," Bradford said. "Probably the best group that we've faced. So, I think it's important that we have a great week of practice and get ourselves ready to go."

Both teams also made significant special teams changes this week. The Cardinals brought back punter Drew Butler after Ryan Quigley didn't prove to be an upgrade the past six games. Quigley had the league's lowest qualifying gross punting average at 41.6 yards per punt.

Minnesota parted with embattled kicker Blair Walsh and signed Kai Forbath. Walsh had only made 75 percent of his field-goal attempts and hit just 78.9 percent of his extra-point attempts.

"It was just something we felt like we needed to do, kind of move forward," Zimmer said. "We're all accountable for the things we have to get done, and I think we gave him a lot of opportunities. Although, Blair's a great kid, and it was hard to do. It's just part of the business."

Business this week, for both teams, will be trying to stay in the playoff race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in what could amount to an elimination game in the AFC wild-card race.

The Bills (4-5) and the Bengals (3-5-1) are currently 11th and 13th in the conference standings.

With one more loss, Cincinnati won't be able to finish with 10 wins. If Buffalo loses on Sunday, it would have to run the table to finish with 10 victories.

"Generally, 10 gets you in (the playoffs)," Bills coach Rex Ryan said. "It's not all the time, but generally that's what happens."

Buffalo hasn't won 10 games since 1999, and hasn't had a winning record after 10 contests since 2000. Coming out of the bye week, the Bills are searching for consistency after losing three straight following a four-game winning streak.

"Our focus has to be on Cincinnati and that's it," Ryan said. "You can't worry about getting to 10 wins. Shoot, we have to worry about getting five wins, so I think that's where we have to look at it. We haven't earned the right to think about anything further than that."

At this point a year ago, the Bengals were 8-1 on their way to an AFC North championship. Cincinnati's impressive mark included a 34-21 win in Buffalo.

"You don't get qualifiers for that, though," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "You don't get to play from the green tees because of the past. We have to play back from the championship tees and move forward."

Pro Bowl left tackle Andrew Whitworth doesn't believe the Bengals' losing record reflects their ability to win games going forward.

"I could go back over the last five or six years and as good as people think we have been, there have been a lot of games that we eked out at the end. Another team made a mistake and we got a lucky break that went our way, that's NFL football," Whitworth said, according to the team website. "With this team though, the character we have, we can keep our heads down and keep working and turn this thing around."

The Bengals are banged up and on short rest coming off a Monday night's 21-20 loss to the New York Giants.

Quarterback Andy Dalton (right shoulder), tight end Tyler Eifert (knee) and wide receiver Brandon LaFell (knee) were all limited at Wednesday's practice. Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) was limited in his return to practice after sitting out last week.

Cincinnati is playing at Paul Brown Stadium for the first time in four weeks and hasn't won a game since then, despite being outscored by just one point in the last two contests - including a 27-27 tie with the Redskins on Oct. 30.

"Our margin for error right now is not very big," Lewis said.

A victory could go a long way for the Bengals. They are only 1.5 games back of the Ravens in the AFC North standings, but play four of their final six games against division foes - including two matchups with Baltimore.

"There's still so much to be determined in these last seven games," Dalton said. "We haven't lost confidence in ourselves because we've been close in these games."

The Bills were hoping to get healthy during the bye week but still have holes to fill in the lineup. They could have as many as five new starters on Sunday.

Most of the changes will come on defense. Buffalo signed veteran safety James Ihedigbo this week with Aaron Williams (neck) likely out for the season and backups Duke Williams and Robert Blanton playing poorly.

Cornerback Ronald Darby was benched in favor of Corey White in a loss to Seattle last week and could lose his starting job permanently.

Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (groin) is still limited in practice. Dareus' primary backup, Corbin Bryant (shoulder) is likely out for the second straight game. Linebacker Jerry Hughes (hand) was also limited in practice this week.

On offense, either Patrick Lewis or Ryan Groy will be the new starting center after Eric Wood (broken leg) was placed on injured reserve.

"I think the most important player on our offense is Eric Wood," Bills running back LeSean McCoy said. "We put a lot of pressure on him to make the right calls and put us in the right protection and right schemes. As a whole, we have to do a better job of that and of knowing ourselves, instead of letting him tell us what to do."

Seantrel Henderson could also replace Jordan Mills at right tackle.

Henderson has missed the first nine games due to suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy and his recovery from Crohn's disease.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The surging Dallas Cowboys can complete a season sweep of the AFC North with a victory over the visiting Baltimore Ravens in Week 12.

The Cowboys (8-1) are riding an NFL-best eight-game winning streak and have already beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Dallas coach Jason Garrett, however, acknowledged the Ravens (5-4) pose a huge challenge with the top-ranked defense in the NFL.

"They're a very impressive group," Garrett said. "They're a very well-coached group. They have a lot of really good players on all three levels of defense. They play with the physical style. It's easy to see why they're among the best defenses in the league."

Baltimore has bounced back from a four-game losing streak with victories over Pittsburgh and Cleveland to take over sole possession of first place in the division.

The Ravens were the only team in the division to emerge with a victory in Week 11, and they can further extend their lead in the downtrodden AFC North with a win over Dallas.

"When you get the lead, you want to keep the lead," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "When you keep the lead, you want to extend the lead. That is what we aim to do in every game -- not always successfully, but that is our goal. Certainly, that is going to be the objective during the course of the season."

Dallas, meanwhile is in full control of the NFC East. The Cowboys have not lost a game since a 20-19 setback to the New York Giants in the opener.

This matchup features a high-flying Dallas offense, ranked fifth in the NFL, going against the Ravens' lock-down defense. Dallas has confirmed that rookie quarterback Dak Prescott will get the start this week even though veteran Tony Romo is healthy enough to play. Prescott has given the Cowboys a spark this season, throwing for 2,339 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions.

"I have playmakers all around me and Pro Bowl guys who have been doing well in this league for a long time," Prescott said. "My job is easy when you have those guys around you -- just to get them the ball and allow them to do what they have done."

Few players have found any success running against the Ravens' stout defensive line, which is allowing just 71.3 yards per game, also best in the NFL. However, Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott is an MVP-caliber season. Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 yards and has nine touchdowns.

"They are No. (2) running the ball. We are No. 1 against the run," Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "This is NFL football. I think this is very good for our league and our sport. Everybody is going to tune in to watch. To be the best, you have to play the best. It is a challenge for our defense, but we accept it. I think we are just the men for the job."

The Cowboys, however, have other weapons on offense, primarily with receiver Dez Bryant and an offensive line that has three former first-round picks (offensive tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin).

"The offensive line is the heart of this offense," Prescott said. "We go as they go. They go out there, they play nasty, they play physical, and they know that."

The Ravens, on the other hand, are still trying to find more consistency on offense.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown for 2,374 yards with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. Baltimore has also struggled to get its running game on track, which has put additional pressure on Flacco to make plays. The Ravens will be without rookie left guard Alex Lewis (high ankle sprain) and the status of veteran right guard Marshal Yanda (shoulder) is uncertain. Injuries on the offensive line have contributed to Flacco's struggles this season.

"It hasn't been perfect, and we've got to get better," Flacco said. "I've got to be better at dealing with some things."

Dallas has the league's third-ranked run defense, allowing 82 yards per game, so Baltimore's ground attack is facing another stern challenge.

The Cowboys are the only team in the NFL that does not have a victory against the Ravens, losing each of the past four meetings.

"That is great," Harbaugh said of the series. "Does that count in this year's standings? Does that help us in any way? No. So we need to be 1-0 against them this year. That is the goal: 1-0 against them this year."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)

Date: November 20, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

It only seems natural that coach Hue Jackson would be on the hot seat in Cleveland. The Browns are off to their worst start in 70 years having lost 10 straight to begin the season and are staring down the barrel at a perfect season -- perfect as in 0-16.

When things go wrong along the lakefront -- as they have so often -- Browns' owner Jimmy Haslam has been quick to bring down the guillotine. Since purchasing the team in 2012, Haslam has fired three head coaches.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have had three coaches since 1969 -- Chuck Noll (1969-1991), Bill Cowher (1992-2006) and Mike Tomlin (2007 to present).

In Pittsburgh, they're not used to adversity and now that the Steelers have lost four in a row, it seems like everyone is clamoring for Tomlin's head.

Never mind that the Steelers, who travel to the Dawg Pound for a 1 p.m. Sunday affair, have a good chance to be tied atop the AFC North after this week's action.

Such is life in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately NFL where the heat is on Tomlin of the 4-5 Steelers and but not so much on Jackson of the 0-10 Browns.

With the Steelers in danger of suffering their first losing season in Tomlin's 10-year career at Pittsburgh, he has ignored the outside clutter and is focused on getting his team ready and forgetting about the nightmare that was the Cowboys.

"We're just not playing well enough," Tomlin said after losing 35-31 in the final seconds to Dallas on Sunday. "We're not in the right place enough. We're not looking at the right things enough.

"The tape says we're not disciplined enough. The tape says there aren't enough people doing the right things on a consistent basis to produce a victory," he added.

Pittsburgh now has lost three straight on the road and plays four of its next five away from Heinz Field. The offense has been inconsistent on the road -- they have scored a total of 32 points in those three losses -- and the defense has been atrocious.

And now the Steelers must find a replacement for their best defender, Cam Heyward, who tore a pectoral muscle against Dallas and is out for the season.

Heyward had plenty to say about the Steelers inability to prevent the big play after the defense allowed three scoring plays of 30 yards or longer against Dallas.

"When you do that you're not going to have a lot of success in this league," he said "I take this one on the chin personally because I feel like our offense did enough. As the leader of the defense it falls on me and goes down from there. It's just unacceptable."

Big plays and the mounting losses are taking a toll on a number of defenders including linebacker Ryan Shazier.

"We just have to have better detail. ... We're giving up too many big plays. We're not stopping the run. That's a recipe for disaster," Shazier said. "We'll look at the film, criticize each other and make sure we get each other back on point. Losing sucks."

If there's one team that knows about losing it's the Browns. They've lost 13 straight dating to the end of last season, and despite some reports of a rift between Jackson and the front office, there appears to be a long-term plan in place that has the backing of the players and management. The fans just want a win.

The Browns have the youngest team in the league and have stockpiled draft picks in the next few years. They might be on their way to a historically bad season, but they haven't thrown in the towel.

"Everyone hates losing, but if you get discouraged, your play is going to drop, and if your play drops, you lose your job," guard John Greco said. "Hopefully, the veteran leadership and the guys that have been on winning programs will show the young guys this is a long season, but we want them to get their first win so we can turn this positive culture we talk about into a winning culture."

One of the few bright spots for Cleveland this year has been the emergence of wide receiver Terrelle Pryor Sr., who has compiled 51 receptions for 627 yards and four touchdowns.

Whoever is at quarterback for the Browns -- rookie starter Cody Kessler or veteran Josh McCown -- they might want to take advantage of Pryor's speed and height against rookie corner Artie Burns.

Another glimmering hope for the Dawg Pound has been the play of linebacker Christian Kirksey, who leads the NFL with 94 tackles.

The Browns on Wednesday also received a bit of good news when quarterback Robert Griffin III was cleared for noncontact activities. The fifth-year QB broke a bone in his shoulder the first week of the season. "We are not here to have the record we have," Jackson said. "We're all disappointed and probably to a person a little embarrassed by it."

Jackson can take solace in receiving the support of Executive Vice President of Football Operations Sashi Brown earlier this week.

"The days of winning are coming. I'm confident of that. We just have to stick with the plan and support our fans through the process," he said.

Only one thing will take the heat off Tomlin and that's a victory. With the Ravens playing the Cowboys this weekend, the Steelers have a golden opportunity to forge a tie atop the AFC North, and the Browns are just what the doctor ordered.

Cleveland has one of the worst defenses, giving up 419 yards and 30.1 points per game. Expect Roethlisberger and wide receiver Antonio Brown to take advantage of a weak Cleveland secondary that has struggled against other top passing offenses.

And while Pittsburgh has had its problems getting their running game in gear, there should be plenty of opportunity for running back Le'Veon Bell to find some success against the Browns, who are 31st against the rush, allowing 144 yards per game.

Sunday's game is the 127th time the teams have met in the regular season and the Steelers lead the series, 68-58, and since 2004 the Steelers have dominated sweeping the Browns nine times. The two teams close out the regular season on Jan. 1 in Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)

Date: November 20, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff makes his highly anticipated debut when the Rams host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at the Los Angeles Coliseum.

The Rams' fan base has not-so-patiently awaited this moment, but the time has come for the No. 1 pick in this spring's NFL draft out of the University of California.

"I felt like this was the best time to go ahead and turn the keys over to Jared," Los Angeles coach Jeff Fisher said. "We're excited for him. He had a good day (at practice). He's into the plan, he's really excited.

"The position is not easy to play, as we've seen around the league. A lot of good quarterbacks took their lumps last weekend, but we got confidence in him, as the offense does. We'll get him prepared to play."

Goff replaces Case Keenum, who has not played well for most of the season as the offense scored 10 points or fewer in five games. The Rams (4-5) were held without an offensive touchdown for the third time this season in a 9-6 victory over the Jets in New York last week.

Los Angeles ranks last in scoring at 15.4 points per game and the Keenum-led offense is 31st in total offense with an average of 308 yards.

Goff makes his debut at home before the Rams play at New Orleans and at New England in Weeks 12 and 13.

The Dolphins (5-4) made Southern California their home this week instead of flying back and fourth across the country after defeating the San Diego Chargers 31-24. Miami is practicing in north San Diego County.

The Rams halted a four-game losing streak by defeating the Jets while the Dolphins are winners of four straight.

Miami's offense is finally hitting on all cylinders under first-year coach Adam Gase but faces a tough challenge in the Los Angeles' defense. The Gregg Williams-led unit ranks seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed at 327 per contest. and 10th in points allowed at 19.2.

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill played some of the best football of his career during the winning streak and has thrown 109 consecutive passes without an interception. The former Texas A&M star also has four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 103.6 passer rating during the run. Tannehill's success has his coach raving about him.

Said Gase: "The guy (Tannehill) is a beast. He just stands back there. There was one of them he threw, I thought he was pressured a little bit, and he got rid of the ball and he comes in and he says, 'I have to stay in there.' He just has some kind of toughness where he just is going to stand in there. He takes a shot. He takes care of his body and he's able to bounce back up."

At the start of the 2016 season, no one except perhaps Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi's family members believed he'd be ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing and outgaining Rams running back Todd Gurley by 210 yards.

Ajayi averages 5.7 yards per carrry, good for 725 yards this season. Gurley's average is 3.1 yards.

While Ajayi has been a godsend to a Dolphins' offense that lost Arian Foster to injury, then retirement, Gurley and the Rams' rushing attack has been a disappointment to the team and Rams fans alike.

There may be hope for Gurley this week, though. The Dolphins are 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 128.8 per contest and with a rookie quarterback getting his first NFL start, the Rams hope Gurley can take advantage.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8)

Date: November 20, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

Still stinging from a 31-24 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the New England Patriots travel across the country to face the woeful San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

Apparently without Rob Gronkowski.

The big tight end, injured by a smashing hit from Seattle's Earl Thomas on Sunday night, missed five plays but came back and finished the game, which ended when an attempted fade to him in the end zone was incomplete.

Then Monday a report surfaced he suffered a punctured lung. Then Tuesday another report said it was a bruised sternum.

There was no Gronkowski news Wednesday -- except that his brother, Glenn, was re-signed to the practice squad.

While all was quiet on that front, it was apparent neither Gronkowski will be on the field when the 7-2 Patriots visit the 1-8 (with eight straight losses) 49ers.

Clearly, Rob Gronkowski's absence makes the powerful New England offense weaker. But the injury took focus away from what the Patriots defense did Sunday, which was little as Russell Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns.

Chip Kelly is the coach of the 49ers now, but last year he brought the Philadelphia Eagles to Gillette Stadium and won, scoring 35 points.

"(Coach Bill Belichick) has been on us about that game, too," defensive captain Devin McCourty said Wednesday. "Obviously, we didn't do some things well that game, so we just talked about the importance of, with Chip Kelly being there now, they'll definitely probably go through that game, and things that they gave us trouble with they'll look at and probably go back to.

"He's (Belichick) trained us as players I think in really all phases of the game about being prepared for those things, so we've gone through that game a little bit, just watching and seeing how we might get attacked, obviously, not by Philly but by a team coached by Chip Kelly."

Asked what his team has to do to calm the fears of anxious Patriots fans about the defense, McCourty said, "It's simple. We've just got to play better -- there's nothing I can say to calm that or anything, we've just got to go out there and play better. I think that's what everyone in the locker room and everyone on the defense wants to go out there and do. There's nothing to say. You've just got to go do it."

The 49ers are 29th in the NFL in total offense and 30th in passing. But they're seventh in rushing, with Colin Kaepernick always a threat to take off with the football. And the New England defensive players have been impressed with the way the Niners have moved the ball the last two games -- the third and fourth games with Kaepernick as the starter.

"I mean, if we'd have played well (last week) we'd still have something to prove," New England defensive end Chris Long said. "Every week we have something to prove. If you have a mindset any different in this league, you're going to get embarrassed because there's good teams every week that you have to play that has weapons. San Francisco certainly has that."

The 49ers' only win was a 28-0 opening victory over the Los Angeles Rams, who also remain on New England's schedule. They lost by three points at Arizona last Sunday.

Earlier this week, Kelly, the former offensive coordinator at the University of New Hampshire, revealed some extremely important news on his relationship with Belichick.

"We're Facebook friends," Kelly said. "We spend a lot of time online together.

"He is a good friend. He's always been very, very kind to me, whether I was at New Hampshire or Oregon or now, when I've been in the NFL. Very good friend. ... I was just very thankful that he is a friend of mine, and I've got great respect for him. Excited about the matchup this week and getting a chance to coach against him again."

Talking about Kaepernick and the Niners' attack Wednesday, Belichick said, "They run the ball as much as any team in the league so that sets up their play action and some of the quarterback movement plays that he's good at, as well as their third-down package. He has a good group of skill players to work with. The receivers are good, the tight ends are good, the backs are very good. They can move the ball."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2)

Date: November 20, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

Carson Wentz has been such an immediate hit that he has drawn some comparisons to Seattle star Russell Wilson.

The next task for the Philadelphia Eagles rookie quarterback will be leading his team past Wilson's squad.

Wentz and Wilson square off against each other for the initial time on Sunday when the Eagles (5-4) visit the Seahawks (6-2-1) at CenturyLink Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

There were some observers who wondered whether Wentz would need to be brought alone slowly after being the No. 2 overall pick out of North Dakota State. Instead, he has exploded on the scene, similar to the way Wilson did in 2012 after being a third-round draft choice.

And Seattle's Pete Carroll, who is looking for his 100th win as an NFL head coach, is among the people who see the similarities.

"He shows you the same kind of capabilities," Carroll said of Wentz. "He's got the same kind of awareness and leadership and it looks like the mentality that there's no question that he can play and play now and be effective.

"I'm sure they're thinking they're going to go for their division, they're going to try to win the thing with that young guy quarterback because they can believe in him. You can see all the reasons why. He's very similar."

Wentz has passed for 2,121 yards and nine touchdowns against five interceptions. He has completed 65 percent of his passes while displaying poise beyond his years.

Wilson showed that same type of top-level maturity in his first season when he passed for 3,118 yards and 26 touchdowns while being intercepted 10 times. He is now an established star and is impressed with what he has seen of Wentz.

"I've watched Carson a few times this season," Wilson said. "He's playing great football. He's a great player. He's a great quarterback. And he's going to be a great quarterback for a long time.

"He can move out of the pocket and make plays. He can make all the throws. You're going to have a good one there (in Philadelphia) for a lot of years to come."

Wilson is having another fine season despite some early season ailments that hindered his play. He has passed for 2,442 yards and 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions.

Wentz said he has followed Wilson's career and is impressed with his accomplishments that include leading Seattle to two Super Bowl appearances.

"A lot of respect for him, the way he came into the league right away and took it by storm as a late pick. It was impressive," Wentz said. "So I have a lot of respect for him and look forward to going up against him."

What might not be as fun for Wentz is the environment inside Seattle's stadium.

The Eagles are just 1-4 on the road as they prepare to play at one of the most raucous sites in the NFL.

"I think the biggest thing is you need to communicate a lot. You need to over-communicate," Wentz said. "You need to work on hand signals both with the O-linemen and the receivers. You've got to work through a lot of those things."

Eagles coach Doug Pederson is mighty familiar with the environment and the passion of Seattle fans.

Pederson grew up in Ferndale, located about 100 miles north of Seattle, and used to regularly attend Seahawks' games at The Kingdome.

"I grew up a Seahawks fan and the Kingdome and all of that," Pederson said. "I remember on Sunday mornings driving down with my mom and dad and going to Seahawks' games and watching Jim Zorn and Steve Largent and Kenny Easley and those guys. It was always a great memory for me as a kid."

Pederson could use another big memory in terms of an upset with the Eagles residing in last place in the NFC East despite being above. 500.

Philadelphia is also catching Seattle after the Seahawks posted an impressive 31-24 road victory over the New England Patriots last Sunday.

Wilson passed for 348 yards and three touchdowns and the Seattle defense saved the game with a late goal-line stand.

An underlying factor in the victory was the emergence of rookie running back C.J. Prosise, who had 153 total yards (66 rushing, 87 receiving). His play was so solid that the Seahawks released leading rusher Christine Michael (469 yards) earlier this week with injured Thomas Rawls (fibula) about to return.

Meanwhile, the Eagles hope to have top receiver Jordan Matthews (48 receptions, 580 yards). He is dealing with back spasms.

Philadelphia's defense is receiving strong play from its front four with defensive end Brandon Graham leading the way with five sacks.

Cliff Avril has a team-best 9.0 sacks for a Seattle defense that is tied for second in the NFL with 29.