Sunday 10/4/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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MATT FARGO
NFL | Oct 04, 2015
Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears+3½

The Raiders have been the laughingstock of the NFL for years but that distinction may now be moving away from them following a 2-1 start to the season. The last time they started 2-1 was back in 2011 and they finished a very respectable 8-8. But now Oakland is favored which is rare as it has now laid points since 2013, a span of 25 games of being an underdog but I think this is an overreaction this early in the season. Yes, the Raiders are improved but the big reason this is an overreaction is the fact that they are road favorites for the first time since 2005 when they were favored by three points over the Jets. Chicago is off to a dismal 0-3 start but to its credit, it has played the toughest schedule in the NFL as it has lost to 3-0 teams Arizona and Green Bay as well as Seattle, which is still a Super Bowl favorite. Now the Bears catch the Raiders off two straight wins playing their second straight game in the midwest so this is definitely the potential for a letdown spot. Chicago was blown out last week in Seattle but held its own early, trailing only 6-0 at halftime. The Bears fall into a great situation as we play against road teams coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Oakland is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games against teams being outscored by 10 or more ppg and 17-36 ATS off a upset win as an underdog. Play (262) Chicago Bears

 

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ASA

PLAY ON Under 45 points - Cleveland @ San Diego, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

After going UNDER the total in 11 of their final 12 games last year, the Browns have actually gone OVER the number in each game this year. We think an over adjustment has now been made as this total is set higher than any Cleveland total since last Dec 7th when the faced a high powered Indy offense. The fact is Cleveland remains one of the worst offenses in the NFL racking up just 316 YPG. Their passing attack is pedestrian with either McCown or Manziel at the helm. Don’t expect a lot on offense from the Browns. San Diego has tried to emphasize the run more often this year to take some heat off of QB Rivers. They currently sit 15th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and they were 23rd in that category last year. Look for them to hand the ball off a lot more this weekend as they face a Cleveland defense that ranks dead last in rush defense allowing 158 YPG on the ground. That will eat clock and shorten this game. Take the UNDER here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Raiders -3)

The public is all over the Raiders for good reason. This may seem like an inflated line here with Oakland laying a field goal on the road, but I actually think they should be a bigger favorite. The only reason they aren't, is they are the Raiders. Chicago has played a brutal schedule with their first 3 games coming against Green Bay Arizona and Seattle. While they were competitive against the Packers at home, that was with Jay Cutler at quarterback. They won't have Cutler or top wide out Alshon Jeffery. That's going to force them to rely a lot on the run and Oakland has been decent against the rush, only giving up 3.9 yards/carry. They held a Cleveland offense with no passing attack to just 39 yards rushing last week. You also have to factor in the mentality of the Bears right now, with the team trading away some of their better players. It might be just Week 4, but this team has thrown in the towel. Oakland is a hungry and talented young team that will not overlook the chance to start the year 3-1. Give me the Raiders -3!

 

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PURE LOCK

FREE NFL play Sunday 10-4-15
New Orleans -3

 

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MIKEY SPORTS

FREE NFL play Sunday 10-4-15
NY Jets -1

 

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JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Packers/49ers OVER

I'm going to take the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total of 48.5 points. The Packers lowest scoring game so far this season is 44 points in Week 2's Sunday Night Football showdown against the Seahawks. That's the only contest Green Bay hasn't eclipsed 30 points, as they head into Week 4 averaging 32.0 ppg. Now they face a 49ers defense that has allowed 90 points the last two weeks.
While San Francisco's defense did hold the Vikings to just 3-points at home in Week 1, Minnesota's offense is built around the running game with Adrian Peterson. The 49ers secondary wasn't tested in that game, but clearly should have been. San Francisco allowed Ben Roethlisberger to complete 21 of 27 for 369 yards and 3 scores in Week 2 and followed that up by allowing Carson Palmer to complete 20 of 32 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now they face arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a 5 TD performance against the Chiefs.
Some will point to Rodgers not being as good on the road as he is at home, but that's irrelevant with this matchup. What a lot of people don't realize is how much this game means to Rodgers and the Packers, as they have lost 4 straight to the 49ers with two of those coming in the playoffs. Rodgers doesn't forget about these kind of things and will be extremely motivated to not just beat San Francisco but embarrass them.
Now I could see some concern with backing the OVER at close to 50 points with a 49ers offense that hasn't looked good the last two weeks, but I'm expecting San Francisco to bounce back at home after playing the last two on the road. It will also help that Green Bay is playing on a short week of rest and has to travel quite a ways out to the west coast. I don't see it having a negative impact on Rodgers, but I do think it will take away from their defense.
The OVER is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 games in the month of October, 10-4 in their last 14 against the NFC and 14-6 in their last 20 road games. We also find a great system in play. The OVER is 36-11 since 1983 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is coming off a home win by 10 or more points and is undefeated on the season. That's a 70% long-term system. Take the OVER!

 

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Bruce Marshall

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina's good fortune continues, as it has faced a string of QBs (Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett and Luke McCown) whose NFL wins as starters can be counted on their hands. No wonder the Panthers are 3-0! Now, the defense gets served Jameis Winston, 1-2 SU as a pro. Who next, T.J. Yates and Ryan Nassib? But "Famous Jameis" (only one pick last two games) is beginning to cut down his mistakes. And Lovie Smith's Tampa Two scheme flustered Cam Newton in last year's second meeting (Newton missed LY's opener due to injury) when the Pan-thas couldn't cover a short price in Charlotte.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Chicago Bears +3

There is one thing about the NFL that many bettors tend to forget. What happened in the previous week, when in embarrassing fashion, typically makes for a strong play the following week. That is exactly why no one wants the Bears who gained 146 total yards in a shutout loss last week. They will take on the upstart Oakland Raiders who are favored to equal their win total from a year ago of three, already in week four. The Raiders may be 2-1, but they are not problem free. Their two wins each came with less than :40 seconds on the clock to Cleveland and Baltimore. While they are improved offensively, at least so far, this is a team that has allowed 28 points per game over the last five years. So far this season, that number is 28.7 ppg. The Bears are 0-3 and looking to avoid their worst start since 2002. This comes down to making the tough gut wrenching play, as the bears are a hard pill to swallow for bettors right now, but they do apply to home dog situation that is 69-42 ATS. Play the home team in this one and go with Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coach Fletcher

Carolina -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and QB Jameis Winston will try to get their offense going against A Carolina defense that bends but doesn’t break too often. The lack of Buc offense has hurt them this year. Carolina’s offense is all the potent either.

Carolina averages 23.7 points per game and the defense allows just 16.0., That’s the main reason they are 3-0. Offensively they run for 132 yards per game and pass for 216 for a total offense of 348 yards per game.

Defensively they are tough on the ground game allowing only 75.7 yards per game but they do give up 239.3 in the air for a total of 315.

It appears that Tampa is going to have some trouble running the ball. They average only 96 yards per game on the ground. With Carolina’s stout defensive line, that’s bad news for Winston. The lack of a running game has killed more than one passing quarterback. Tampa does pass for 212 per game so they should be able to throw at least a little against Carolina’s softer pass defense. But if Carolina stops their run game, it’s going to be a long day for the Bucs.

Tama only averages 16.3 points per game which fits well with the Carolina defensive toughness. They will no doubt have a hard time scoring unless they get help from special teams or turnovers. The Bucs have also given up 26.7 points per game. They allow 138 on the ground and 210.3 in the air.

Carolina opened on the road against a better than advertised Jacksonville team. The Panthers won 20-9 as 3 point favorites. They held the Jags to 96 yards rushing and 169 in the air. They also collected 3 turnovers. The Panther ground game ran for just 105 yards in 35 carries and they gained 158 in the air – not am impressive offensive effort gaining only 263 yards.

Game 2 the Panthers beat the Texans 24-17 as 3 point chalk. They found their running game going 172 yards in 32 carried and passed for 178. They stuffed Houston’s run game giving only 61 yards on the ground but 239 in the air. They got 1 turnover in this one.

Game 3 the 10 point favorites hosted a Drew Brees-less New Orleans team. They won 27-22 but didn’t cover. The offense went for 189 on the ground and Newton finally found a few targets and threw for 312. Once again they stuffed the run, allowing the Saints just 70 yards, but the Saints threw for 310. The Panthers got 2 more turnovers to make it 6 TO’s on the year against just 2 of their own.

There is nothing spectacular about the Carolina offense. Newton is clever but he doesn’t have a lot of options. They should be able to run a little better against the Bucs and throw as well.

Tampa opened up with a pathetic performance at Tennessee where they were blasted 42-14 as 3 point dogs. They ran for 92 yards and threw for 181 and turned the ball over 2 times. They allowed the Titans to run for 124 and pass for 185.

As the world wondered how Tampa could be so bad, they went into New Orleans as nearly 10 point dogs and surprised with a 26-19 win. They were able to run for `139 and pass for 194, but turned it over twice again. They were fairly tough on the NO offense giving up 104 on the ground and 219 in the air from an injured Drew Brees. The Saints turned it over 3 times,

With hope once more in the air, the Bucs traveled to winless Houston as 6 point dogs. The offense came up empty and the Texans collected the 19-9 win. Tampa ran for just 57 yards in 20 carries and passed for 261. They committed only 1 turnover. Houston ran the ball at will for 186 yards in 46 carries and completed 24-39 for 227 yards. I’m sure that Carolina has watched a lot of film on this game to see how the Texans dissected the Tampa defense and stuffed the offense. Ball control was the name of the game and it worked.

A couple of injuries could hurt the Panthers in this one. I think they can overcome the difficulties because they have the better personnel. Defensive start Luke Kuechly missed the last two games with a concussion and it appears he will also miss this one. But the defense has been strong enough without him in the past 2 games to handle the Buc offense. With a bye week coming up, Kuechly will probably sit this one out.

Newton is going to need to improve. He ranks near the bottom with a low 56.6 completion percentage. But last week he showed his stuff by going 20 of 31 for 315 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran one in.

The Panthers shouldn’t worry about the Bucs run game, but the pass game could be problematic. Carolina ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed and 3rd in the league in opponents yards per rush at 3.34.

While Newton is near the bottom of the league in completion percentage, Jameis Winston is at the bottom of the league with just a 52.2 % completion rate. He was sacked 7 times in the first few games but the Texan’s supposedly fierce front line wasn’t able to down him.

Tampa is tied for 29th in the league in scoring and is 27th in rushing. I see more of the same happening tomorrow. On 3rd down last week, Tampa was just 1 for 12 and Winston’s completion percentage on 3rd down was just 40.6 %. He was also picked 3 times. Even though the Texans didn’t flatten him, they put plenty of pressure on him.

The Bucs have a 10 game him losing streak which I believe we roll to 11 after Sunday’s matinee. Carolina has won 4 straight including both last season with Newton sidelined. Newton has 10 TDs through the air and 6 on the ground in 6 games against the Bucs. I like Carolina in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIM FEIST

(262) Chicago Bears

Your Bonus Play for Sunday, October 4, 2015 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Oakland Raiders and the Chicago Bears. Definitely looks to be two franchises heading in opposite directions. The Raiders have pretty much rid themselves of all that older, veteran talent and now have gone with younger, hungrier players. And, it's showed this season, with the club at 2-1 heading into week four. The Raiders are coming off a nice road win at Cleveland last week, 27-20. The offense is 10th in the league with balanced passing from QB Carr and running from Murray. The defense still leaves something to be desired though, ranking dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed (414). They are 30th against the pass. However, that could be good for them today if Jay Cutler doesn't play for the Bears. Cutler is battling a hamstring issue and is officially listed as questionable for this contest. Cutler did split reps this week with backup Jimmy Clausen. News reports from the practice field had Cutler making it through practices without further injuring the hamstring. Practical reasoning suggests that if Clausen was to start here, he would have been giving most of the reps in practice and not split them. The Bears punted on all 10 of their possessions last week in Seattle as Clausen completed just 9 of 17 passes for 63 total yards. Huge difference here as to who starts at QB for the Bears. This the first time since the 1990's that the Raiders are a road favorite. Justified? The way they are playing I'd say so. However, if Cutler plays, as I believe he will, then this line is way off. Your Bonus Play is on the Bears, especially if Cutler is a go!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRAD WILTON

Carolina did slip Over the total last Sunday in their game with New Orleans to make it 1-1-1 Over/Under this season, but I like the Under to come through when the Panthers play at the Bucs here on Sunday.

Tampa has held Under the price in their last pair of games, as rookie QB Jameis Winston is still learning the ropes the NFL with only 3 games under his belt.

This NFC South rivalry has been low-scoring of late, as the Under is on a 3-0 clip the past 3 series meetings, and now stands at 4-1-1 the last 6 times these division-rivals have gone at it.

This game starts with defense first, so let's stick with the trends that slant towards the Low.

Panthers-Buccaneers Under the total for the 4th straight meeting.

2* CAROLINA-TAMPA BAY UNDER

 

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JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is the Bears plus the points over the Raiders.

Break up the Raiders!

Oakland invades the Windy City riding their first two game winning streak since the 2012 season, and on paper it sure looks like they should extend their winning ways to three in a row at the expense of the winless Bears.

Not so fast my friends, this is the NFL, and as the saying goes; "on any given Sunday"...I know Jimmy Clausen will never be confused with Joe Montana, or even Jay Cutler for that matter, but with a pair of road games following this home date, and the fact Chicago is coming off a game against one of the better defenses (Seattle) in the League, look for Clausen and the Bears to have a better time of it today.

Remember this, Oakland is 3-22 straight up away from home their last 25 with one of those wins coming last week at Cleveland. I say their second trip away in as many weeks is NOT as kind to them as last week's was.

Take the points and the Bears in this one.

1* CHICAGO

 

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Hawkeye Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection: San Diego - 7

 

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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

Cleveland +7 over San Diego (NFL)

 

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TOP RANK SPORTS

Washington +3 over Philadelphia (NFL)

 

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

N.Y. Giants +5 over Buffalo (NFL)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3


Week 4

1) Arizona (573)

2) Carolina (542)

3) N.Y. Giants (483)

4) Jacksonville (403)

5) Cincinnati (402)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Baltimore (-3) 113 Pittsburgh (+3) 136

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) 331 Miami (+1.5) 232

Jacksonville (+9) 403 Indianapolis (-9) 75

Houston (+6) 338 Atlanta (-6) 373

Carolina (-3) 542 Tampa Bay (+3) 218

N.Y. Giants (+5) 483 Buffalo (-5) 249

Oakland (-3) 369 Chicago (+3) 215

Philadelphia (-3) 263 Washington (+3) 213

Kansas City (+4) 290 Cincinnati (-4) 402

Cleveland (+7.5) 222 San Diego (-7.5) 180

Green Bay (-8) 287 San Francisco (+8) 259

Minnesota (+6.5) 307 Denver (-6.5) 393

St. Louis (+7) 309 Arizona (-7) 573

Dallas (+3) 169 New Orleans (-3) 251

Detroit (+10) 168 Seattle (-10) 227

 

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 4


Move over Seattle, Green Bay and New England. The betting public has a new favorite team joining the group that's routinely featured the most on parlays across every sports book in the Las Vegas valley.

Meet the Arizona Cardinals who have jumped out to an impressive 3-0 start, but have endeared themselves more with the betting public by covering all three of its games by an average score of 42-16.

What's not to like about them? They don't just win and cover, they crush teams, and the games go OVER the total. It's a parlay bettors' side-to-total delight and the two-teamer at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) is 3-0 with the Arizona-OVER combination this year.

The more bettors win on a team, the more they love them and they go for the ride as long as the roll goes. In Week 3 action, the Cardinals were the most one-sided wagered team of the week and were the major culprit of making the sports books losers on Sunday for the second time on the early season.

The question is whether or not Arizona's roll will last.

Are they for real?

Bettors are now having to lay larger numbers with Arizona as its rating has jumped about four points since the season began. In the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s early Week 4 lines last week the Cardinals were -4 for Sunday's home contest against the Rams. On Friday, the Cardinals were -7 (EVEN) after opening Sunday night at -6.

Is there too much of a rating adjustment on Arizona making their opponents more attractive for wise guys at the bet windows, or could the ratings still be low? One of the sharpest professional bettors in Las Vegas, Jeff Whitelaw, had a surprising take on the Cardinals and where they stack up among the rest of the teams.

"Before last week’s game, someone asked me who I thought the best teams in the NFL were and I said Green Bay, New England and then Arizona, and he was a little surprised by my answer. But you have to look at everything they're comprised of which is a great coach, solid defense, outstanding special teams play, an offensive line that is much better than expected and then a healthy Carson Palmer."

It's quite eye-opening to hear someone like Whitelaw mention Arizona before Seattle, a team the Westgate currently has as a six-point home favorites over the Cardinals for their Nov. 15 meeting in updated NFL Games of the Year numbers. It's an indication the Westgate currently has Seattle rated 2.5-points higher on a neutral field over Arizona.

"Right now, I think Arizona might be every bit as good as Seattle. The Seahawks have that pedigree and the Cardinals really haven't played anyone yet, but they're burying those teams that have been placed in front of them, and it's not like Arizona just snuck up on us. They were 11-5 last season with Palmer playing in only six games (6-0)."

Whitelaw says he expects Arizona's rating to climb even higher and there should still be value on them the next few weeks until its true rating levels off, which would then put them right up there the elite teams in the league.

In 1999, the Rams made a similar rapid rating jump early in the season as they won and covered its first five games by an average score of 38-10 behind back-up quarterback Kurt Warner. Back then, Whitelaw was able to sniff out a winner early on and not only took value in short weekly prices, but also made a few future wagers to win the Super Bowl.

"Yeah, I found them still at 100/1 odds around Week 4," he recalled. In the end, after the Rams won the Super Bowl, it was the worst beating Vegas sports books have taken in NFL future wagers as many had St. Louis at 250/1 odds and higher through the first three weeks. The Westgate dropped Arizona's Super Bowl odds from 14/1 last week down to 10/1 on Tuesday, which certainly isn't as exciting or inviting as prices on those Rams (Books still use 1999 as an example of why not to get too carried away with NFL future prices....never say 'That can't happen').

One area that still may present some value if Whitelaw is correct in his assessment of Arizona is the Westgate's odds to win the NFC West where Seattle is the 5/7 favorite (Bet $140 to win $100) and Arizona is 3/2 (Bet $100 to win $150). It's only three games into the season, and Palmer has proven to be brittle, but the Cardinals already have a two game lead over everyone in the division, including 1-2 Seattle.

Top Public Plays in Week 4

Here's a look at the top public games of the week -- as in the games featured most on parlays and if they come in like they did last week, the sports books will get buried:

Panthers
Falcons
Raiders (More of a bet against Bears)
Eagles
Broncos
Packers (Public hates 49ers just as much as they love Green Bay)
Cardinals

Not surprisingly, the combined ATS record among those teams through three weeks is 17-4 (81%), with Philly dragging down the percentage with its 1-2 ATS mark.

Does the ATS streak keep going for those teams, or does the rating increase catch up with them?

The books always come out ahead in the long run because of those adjustments and making the public lay inflated numbers, which usually makes the other sides attractive for wise guys. But so far the public is doing very well with its favorite teams.

Here's a look at all the line movement from the Westgate's early Week 4 lines posted last Wednesday and what's posted there as of Friday.

The movement is a combination of rating adjustments (air moves) based on Week 3 results and actual betting action.

NY Jets vs Miami (at London): Opened Dolphins -1, now Jets -1.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Opened Colts -7.5, now at -9 (Luck?)

Houston at Atlanta: Opened Falcons -3.5, now at -6.5

Carolina at Tampa Bay: Opened Panthers -2.5, now at -3 (-120)

NY Giants at Buffalo: Opened Bills -5.5, now down to -5

Oakland at Chicago: OFF the board last week (Cutler?); Opened Raiders -2.5, quickly up to -3

Philadelphia at Washington: Opened Eagles -2.5; -3 since Sunday night

Kansas City at Cincinnati: Opened Bengals -3 (EV), now -4

Cleveland at San Diego: Opened Chargers -6.5; bet up to -8 on Sunday, now -7.5

Green Bay at San Francisco: Opened Packers -6.5, now -8

Minnesota at Denver: Opened Broncos -5.5, now -7 (EV)

St. Louis at Arizona: Opened Cardinals -4, now -7 (EV)

Dallas at New Orleans: OFF the board last week and also this week due to Brees (?).
CG Technology books only shops in town with line posted – Saints -4, 46.5

Detroit at Seattle: OFF the board last week (Stafford?), now Seahwawks -10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 4 Tip Sheet


Panthers (-3, 40) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina has played one of the weakest schedules in the league through three weeks, but the Panthers have taken care of their business by jumping out to a 3-0 start for the first time under Ron Rivera. The Panthers picked up their first divisional victory in a 27-22 triumph over the banged-up Saints, but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. Carolina erased an early 10-0 deficit, while winning their fifth straight game at Bank of America Stadium. Since 2012, the Panthers have struggled as a road favorite, posting a 3-6 ATS mark, even though they cashed in the season opener at Jacksonville.

The Buccaneers are winless against the AFC South at 0-2, but have won their lone divisional game against New Orleans as 9 ½-point underdogs in Week 2. Tampa Bay returns home where the Bucs have yet to win a game at Raymond James Stadium under Lovie Smith, going 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS since the start of 2014. To take it a step further, Tampa Bay has been limited to 17 points or less eight times in the last nine at home, including 14 points against Tennessee. The Bucs lost each of their two meetings with the Panthers last season, but Cam Newton sat out both games due to injury.

Texans at Falcons (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta has turned many heads by rallying in each of its first three games against the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys to start 3-0. The Falcons dug out of a 14-0 hole in a 39-28 triumph at Dallas, as Julio Jones hauled in 164 yards on 12 catches while finding the end zone twice. Now, the Falcons are listed as a substantial favorite for the first time this season, as Atlanta posted a dreadful 2-5 ATS record when laying points last season, while losing all four times to AFC foes in 2014.

The Texans finally broke through the win column in a 19-9 home victory over the Buccaneers to cash as six-point favorites. Houston continues its run against NFC South competition this Sunday, hoping to get starting running back Arian Foster back in the lineup after missing the first four games with a groin injury. Alfred Blue has filled in admirably, rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay, the fourth win in the last five tries at home. Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans own a profitable 5-3-1 ATS record on the road, but all three losses have come in the underdog role.

Chiefs at Bengals (-4, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati and Baltimore played their typical back-and-forth game last Sunday, as the Bengals held off the Ravens, 28-24 to cover as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The two teams combined for 31 fourth quarter points after the Bengals entered the final period up 14-7, hitting the ‘over’ of 45 ½, as Cincinnati has outgained all three opponents so far. The Bengals have been nearly automatic at Paul Brown Stadium since the start of 2013, going 14-3-1 SU and 13-4-1 ATS, including the Week 2 victory over the Chargers.

Kansas City plays with a short week following a 38-28 setback at Green Bay on Monday night to drop to 1-2. The Chiefs cruised past the Texans in the opener, but melted down late against Denver at home in Week 2 before getting diced up at Lambeau Field to start 1-2 for the second straight season. Under Andy Reid, Kansas City has compiled a 6-4 ATS record as a road underdog, including a 4-2 ATS mark against AFC foes.

Packers (-8 ½, 48) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay has started 3-0 for only the third time in the Mike McCarthy regime, as the Packers leave the Midwest for the first time this season. Following an opening week triumph at Chicago, Green Bay knocked off Seattle and Kansas City at home, while covering each time in the favorite role. The Packers own an incredible 12-4 ATS record in their last 16 games as a favorite since Week 4 of last season, including a 4-2 ATS mark as away chalk. Since 2012, Green Bay hasn’t had much luck against San Francisco, losing four straight times, while making its first trip to Levi’s Stadium.

The 49ers are happy to be home after suffering a pair of blowout losses at Pittsburgh and Arizona the last two weeks. Colin Kaepernick threw four interceptions in last week’s 47-7 beatdown to the Cardinals, including tossing a pair of pick-sixes in the first quarter, marking San Francisco’s fourth straight road loss since last December. San Francisco wasn’t listed as a home underdog in its inaugural campaign at Levi’s Stadium, but is already a ‘dog for the second time this season, beating Minnesota in the season opener, 20-3.

Vikings at Broncos (-7, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

Minnesota has bounced back nicely since its disastrous opening loss to San Francisco, as the Vikings are fresh off home victories over the Lions and Chargers. The defense allowed a total of 30 points the last two weeks, which includes a late San Diego touchdown in the final minute of last week’s 31-14 triumph as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Vikings are listed as a road underdog for the first time this season, as Mike Zimmer’s club has covered four of their last five in this role, with three losses by two points or less.

The Broncos’ offense didn’t look impressive in Week 1, but the defense carried Denver to a home victory over Baltimore. Peyton Manning woke up in the last two road games, throwing five touchdown passes in wins over the Chiefs and Lions, while putting up a season-high 324 yards in last Sunday night’s 24-12 win at Detroit. Since Manning joined the Broncos in 2012, Denver has compiled a remarkable 23-2 SU and 16-8-1 ATS record at Sports Authority Field, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark against NFC opponents.

Rams at Cardinals (-7, 42 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Arizona is proving that last season’s 9-1 start and playoff appearance isn’t a fluke, as Bruce Arians’ club has looked impressive in three victories. The Cardinals are the highest-scoring team in the league through three weeks after putting up 126 points, including a pair of 40+ spots against the Bears and 49ers. Arizona has turned into one of the most profitable teams in the league since 2014, covering 14 of 19 regular season games, while going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last two seasons against St. Louis.

The Rams shocked the Seahawks in the season opener, but have put up a pair of stinkers on offense the last two weeks, combining for 16 points in losses to the Redskins and Steelers. The running game has averaged 69 yards the last two weeks, which doesn’t bode well against an Arizona rush defense that ranks ninth in the league, yielding 88.7 yards a game. St. Louis hasn’t fared well on the road inside the division the last two seasons, posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record, with the lone victory coming at San Francisco in 2014 as 10-point underdogs, 13-10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 4


The ‘over’ produced a 10-6 record last week and a few games caught some fortunate late-game bursts to help that production. I’d like to extend early apologies to those bettors who played the Cincinnati-Baltimore ‘under’ (45) and were probably smiling late in the fourth quarter but that was before the two teams combined for 28 points in a less than five minutes. If you bet totals regularly, you’ve certainly seen that movie before.

It’s fair to say that five of the six ‘under’ winners were never in doubt and the lone outcome that deserves any whining goes to the Eagles-Jets ‘under’ (47). Philadelphia scored 24 points in the first half and bettors only needed 17 points from both teams in the final 30 minutes to cash. Unfortunately for some, the Eagles were blanked and the Jets only mustered up 10 points.

Through three weeks, the ‘over’ is 26-21-1.

Overseas Action

The NFL International Series returns to Wembley Stadium this Sunday as the Dolphins and Jets square off in an AFC East battle. This will be the 12th game of the series played at London and first of three scheduled this season.

NFL INTERNATIONAL SERIES HISTORY (2007-2014)

Year Matchup Total Result

2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions 22 Atlanta Falcons 21 Under 45
2014 Dallas Cowboys 31 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Over 45

Looking above, you can see the ‘over’ has gone 6-5 in the first 11 but make a note that the Lions-Falcons game played extra early last season at 9:30 a.m. ET, the same time slated for this week’s game.

Make a note that Miami started last season 1-2 before heading to London and blasting Oakland 38-14 in Week 4.

Dare we say déjà vu this Sunday?

I’m not buying it and make a note that the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five and 7-3 in the last 10 between these teams.

Early Trends

It’s very early in the season but we’re starting to see some angles develop for certain clubs. I jotted down some quick notes on what’s helping the cause.

Over 3-0

Arizona - Only six of 126 points scored have come from FGs
Tennessee - Great Red Zone numbers – 77%
Cleveland – Travis Benjamin has accounted for 5 of 7 TDs, single handily winning ‘over’ bets
Oakland – QB Carr is more capable and the defense is dead last (414.7 YPG)
Kansas City – Defense hasn’t been as sharp, but Chiefs could be 2-1 to ‘under’

Under 3-0

Philadelphia - No rushing TDs surrendered and holding teams to FGs (7) rather than TDS (5)
Minnesota - Only allowed 9 scores in three games

System on Target

Monday’s haven’t treated this system well in the past but the Chiefs-Packers game was never in doubt and the ‘over’ cashed easily in Week 3.

For Week 4, the Thursday Night Total system heads to Buffalo since the Giants played at home last Thursday. New VI users reading Total Talk for the first time can check out the explanation in previous installments.

For this matchup, I’m a little hesitant to back the Giants-Bills ‘over’ because both clubs are nursing key injuries on offense and the weather could be dicey due to the Hurricane coming up the East Coast.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact this angle is connecting at an 82% clip (27-6-1) dating back to 2013.

NFC vs. AFC

In the 2013 season, bettors saw the ‘over’ go 50-15 (77%) in non-conference games, a number I highly doubt will ever see again. Last season, those numbers tempered off and were practically even. After three weeks this season, the ‘under’ has gone 8-4 (67%) in the first 12 AFC-NFC matchups and that includes a 5-1 ‘under’ mark in Week 3.

We have four more AFC-NFC matchups to watch this week.

Houston at Atlanta: Bill O’Brien’s squad have scored exactly 17 points in their last three road games against NFC squads, which includes a 24-17 loss to Carolina in Week 2 this season. The Falcons went 3-1 to the ‘under’ last season versus the AFC but were 4-0 in 2013.

Oakland at Chicago: Bears are 6-2 to the ‘over’ in their last eight versus the AFC and the defense is allowing 26.7 PPG during this span. The Raiders have struggled defensively on the road vs. NFC teams, allowing 52, 30, 31 and 24 in their last four, all ‘over’ winners.

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo: New York’s defense has allowed 27.3 PPG in its last eight non-conference games, which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2. The Bills were a clear-cut ‘under’ team last season (13-3) and saw all four against the AFC cash to the low side.

Minnesota at Denver: The Vikings had their most productive efforts against the AFC last season, scoring 30-plus in three of the four games. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos have scored 34, 31, 52, 45, 41 and 42 points in six games vs. NFC squads, which has easily produced a 6-0 ‘over’ mark.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s result between the Ravens and Steelers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the first 11 primetime games of the season. Monday’s outcome in the Chiefs-Packers game is still the only clear-cut ‘over’ we’ve seen this season and something tells me we’re not looking at shootouts in the below games.

Dallas at New Orleans: This game opened 47 and jumped up to 47 ½ after Saints QB Drew Brees was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday. Without or without him, the Saints aren’t the juggernaut they once were at home and I hope you’re not chasing Saints-Over on Sunday. Dallas put up 28 first-half points last week against Atlanta with backups but were blanked in the final 30 minutes. Which team shows up Sunday? I’m going to lean to the latter and I also think the Saints will try to grind out a win against a defense that allowed 158 rushing yards last week.

Detroit at Seattle: I think this total should be a tad lower considering Detroit’s offense isn’t what it once was and scoring at this venue has been next to impossible in recent seasons. The Seahawks blanked the Bears last week and they’re ranked third in total yards (286.3) and 10th in points per game (20.3). Offensively, Seattle is lacking consistency right now and its eye opening when you see a team have more field goals (8) than offensive touchdowns (3), no rushing either. Plus, Seattle’s scoring average (24.7) has been helped with three defensive and special team scores too. If you like to use trends in your handicapping, Seattle is on a 4-2 run to the ‘under’ at home while Detroit is 8-2 to the ‘under’ on the road going back to start of last season.

Fearless Predictions

Outside of leaning to the Atlanta-Dallas ‘under’ in Week 3, it was a solid weekend and I was fortunate to double-up on the Titans and produce a decent profit ($190). After three weeks, the bankroll is in good shape ($360) but it’s still early. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-Denver 42

Best Under: Cleveland-San Diego 45

Best Team Total: Over Jaguars 18 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 54 Cleveland-San Diego
Over 36 N.Y. Giants-Buffalo
Under 55 Green Bay-San Francisco