Sunday 10/4/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Adams

Atlanta Falcons -6½

The Falcons are currently 3-0, led by Matt Ryan and their efficient offense. Ryan has a wide receiver that no one in the league can cover in Julio Jones. Devonta Freeman stepped up and put on a spectacular performance against the Cowboys, scoring 3 touchdowns. If you watched the Atlanta-Dallas game last week you saw two completely different teams playing for the Falcons. In the first half, Atlanta was getting torched by the Dallas offense and it didn’t appear as though there was any shot at slowing them down. Well, they made adjustments at halftime and once they figured out that all Brandon Weeden was going to do was throw short passes for easy completions, they were able to adjust accordingly. You saw the result, as ATL came away with the 39-28 victory.

The Texans continued to struggle offensively in their game against the Bucs, a trend that will likely continue all season long. I’ve stated before that whether it’s Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer under center, it doesn’t make much of a difference. Neither one of these guys is effective enough to lead the offense. The 10 point win by the Texans last week was somewhat misleading, as Tampa’s field goal kicker missed 3 field goals and an extra point, essentially giving the game away.

Houston’s defensive line may be strong, but Matt Ryan can carve up this secondary with all of the weapons at his disposal. Atlanta’s poor defense vs. Houston’s poor offense is a wash. Expect Atlanta to win big at home in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SLEEPYJ

Washington +3.5

I'm still not sold on the Eagles as of yet...One win on the year tells me they are still a bad team..Going through the boxscores and from what i seen with my own eyes, i really believe they are average at best...Last week Vs. the Jets, the Eagles were +3 in turnovers, had 100 yards less of offense and avg only 3.4ypp...They also finished with just 18 first downs and had a special teams TD..Yet they only win the game by 7 points....Now they take to the road for a 2nd week in a row...Washington has looked game and the injuries to the Eagles defense just may show up this week...Redskins are still very alive for this division..They all are in fact...Skins are coming off a primetime loss and will look to rebound here at home...Cousins had a subpar game and his turnovers really hurt the Skins in the last game Vs. the Giants...I just can't buy into the Eagles being a 3.5 fav here...I get a team off a loss and at home catching over the key number of 3 here..Give me the Skins in a bounceback game..This one will be close and the hook just might be what we need to cash this one..I'll take it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Strike Point Sports

New York Jets -2

This will not be a home game for either team as the London fans will just pick and choose. Miami has not looked good this season. Even in their victory over Washington, the Dolphins just looked bad. Until they get their running game going, and have faith in Lamar Miller, they are just going to be average. This coaching staff seems to get out-coached each and every Sunday. I will absolutely take a better team laying this small number. New York is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus the AFC and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 meetings with the Miami Dolphins. Miami meanwhile is 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the AFC and 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the AFC East. The Dolphins have the makings of a solid football team, but they are becoming too one-dimensional, and that dimension just isn't good enough to win them games. The Jets get the job done.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, October 4

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NY JETS (2 - 1) vs. MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in dome games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 1) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-72 ATS (-42.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-71 ATS (-45.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (3 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 144-182 ATS (-56.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 144-182 ATS (-56.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-143 ATS (-54.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ARIZONA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 3) - 10/4/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday- Oct, 4

NY Jets at Miami, 9:30 AM ET
New York: 48-29 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Miami: 0-6 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 games

Jacksonville at at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Indianapolis: 10-1 ATS versus division opponents

Houston at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Houston: 19-5 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game
Atlanta: 4-13 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 14-4 ATS on road after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 games
Tampa Bay: 4-13 ATS in the first half of the season

NY Giants at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 12-2 ATS in road games against AFC East division opponents
Buffalo: 9-25 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival

Oakland at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 8-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Chicago: 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS on road after gaining 4 or less yds/play in previous game
Washington: 8-20 ATS as an underdog

Kansas City at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 34-53 ATS in October

Cleveland at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
San Diego: 26-44 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Green Bay at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-16 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games

Minnesota at Denver, 4:25 ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 15-3 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

St Louis at Arizona, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 1-10 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points
Arizona: 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 or more points

Dallas at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Dallas: 25-12 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game
New Orleans: 5-9 ATS off 2 straight losses against division rivals


Monday - Oct, 5

Detroit at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Detroit: 4-18 ATS in road games against NFC West division opponents
Seattle: 6-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yds in previous game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALEX SMART
NFL | Oct 04, 2015
Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears

Last week the bad news Chicago Bears were shut out by a hungry and angry group of Seahawks on the road. Now this week vs a Oakland Raiders defense that is allowing 323 yards through the air and ranking dead last in the league, some big plays and scores should be recorded by the home team. Meanwhile the Bears brtittle defense that allows 35 ppg, should also get lit up in a big way vs an explosive Raiders attack behind under rated and under appreciated QB Derek Carr and his side kicks RB Latavius Murray and (WR) Amari Cooper. Note: Oakland is 6-0 OVER L/6 in away tilts vs. under performing defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game with the average combined score clicking in at '53 ppg.

Play OVER 1/2 unit comp selection -OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Cleveland Browns

While we have little doubt San Diego will beat the Cleveland Browns outright, we don't expect them to win in a blowout and we'll take the generous points with the road underdog. Cleveland's main problems is their rush defense and lack of rush offense. In terms of their rush defense, they face a San Diego team that is not good a running the ball, putting up only 105 rushing yards per game and twice (in three games) being held under 100 yards. Not claiming the Browns will shut San Diego's running game down, but that the Chargers offense isn't equipped to take full advantage of that mismatch.

Cleveland pretty much abandoned their running game last week after falling behind against Oakland, and it worked as McCown led the Browns to within a touchdown by putting up 316 yards through the air. San Diego has lost two straight and only beat a winless Lions team by five points in their lone road game - giving up 28 points. We get it that the betting public does not like backing the Browns on the road, but the Browns are a perfect 7-0 ATS following an ATS loss. This is too many points for an "average" Chargers team to be laying and sure looks to be one of those SU win / ATS loss situations for San Diego Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

San Francisco +8

Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your +8nd bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value. That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite. Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears. Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover. And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football. At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25. Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here? I don’t!

The 49ers have played one previous home game this season. They covered the spread by three touchdowns in that contest, a dominating win over a Vikings squad that hasn’t lost since. The Niners have been trailing by margin early in each of their last two losses, unable to get Carlos Hyde going as the focal point of the offense. But Green Bay can’t stop the run, ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing a full 5.0 yards per carry. That’s a bad omen for any team facing a desperate foe in this pointspread range! Look for San Fran to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field for extended stretches, grinding out yards and first downs on the ground.

Its surely worth noting that the 49ers said all the right things after last week’s debacle at Arizona. Colin Kaepernick’s quote following his four interception performance took full responsibility: “I nullified all the efforts of every player on the field today." Kaepernick has a stellar track record against Dom Capers defense, averaging more than 100 yards rushing in the last three meetings; games in which San Fran averaged 33 points per game. If we see anything close to that level of offensive production on Sunday and we can expect a competitive game from start to finish.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Oakland /Chicago Under 44½

Last week the bad news Chicago Bears were shut out by a hungry and angry group of Seahawks on the road. Now this week vs a Oakland Raiders defense that is allowing 323 yards through the air and ranking dead last in the league, some big plays and scores should be recorded by the home team. Meanwhile the Bears brittle defense that allows 35 ppg, should also get lit up in a big way vs an explosive Raiders attack behind under rated and under appreciated QB Derek Carr and his side kicks RB Latavius Murray and (WR) Amari Cooper. Note: Oakland is 6-0 OVER L/6 in away tilts vs. under performing defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game with the average combined score clicking in at '53 ppg.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ARI ATARI

Everton vs. Liverpool
Play: Everton

Everton are enjoying a successful start to the season without European commitments adding fatigue to the squad, and it is reflected in their current league position. They are one point and four positions ahead of local rivals Liverpool and I see them adding to that this weekend. Lukaku looks hungry and is being provided with good service from Barkley who looks out to prove a point this year. Evertons defence looks solid, with Howard in goal improving a lot from a poor showing last season.

This highlights the main reason I feel Everton will come out on top here. Liverpool's defence has been appalling at several points this year. A reason for this is the manager, Rodgers, having no real idea what is strongest line defensive line up is. In the games it they haven't conceded more than one goal ,its been when Milner and Lucas have sat deep in front of the defence, but with this negative attitude, they have also greatly struggled for goals.Lovren looks a horror show every time hes put under real pressure and Toure is clearly too old to be playing versus most of the opposition he faces in the league.

Rodgers is under huge, huge pressure from supporters and the chairman to deliver results and deliver them quickly. He has again spent a huge amount of money and the expectations before the season began were huge. He has failed to deliver and defeat here could be the end of his time at the club. Remember that a pk play gives us a push or canceled bet in case of a draw or tie.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

River City Sharps

Vikings +7

Pretty interesting matchup in Denver on Sunday as the 2-1 Minnesota Vikings take on the undefeated Denver Broncos. This appears to be a real matchup between the league’s top-rated defense in the Broncos against a real balanced Minnesota offense led by Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson. The Vikings were impressive last week in their 31-14 win over the San Diego Chargers and over the past two weeks against the Lions and Chargers, the Vikings run defense has held their opponents to 38 and 90 rushing yards respectively in those two wins. The Broncos are coming off a road win at Detroit as they limited the Lions to just 28 yards rushing in the game. This game is going to become about the quarterbacks and the offense through the air as both teams are going to struggle to run the football. While that has traditionally been a spot to back Manning and the broncos, we’re not convinced that he’s 100% comfortable in Gary Kubiak’s new offense and think Bridgewater and Peterson catching passes out of the backfield could be a tough combination for the Broncos. We’re not sure the Vikings will win this game or not, but we definitely like them to stay inside the number. The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win and these Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Give us Teddy and the Vikings to keep this one close.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AC DINERO

St. Louis Rams +7

Pretty big number to be laying to a decent division foe. But the Cardinals have garnered some headlines early on this season. I still think they are overrated a bit, mainly on the OL and the secondary. No question they are a different team with Carson Palmer at QB. I like this Ram defense and at the point of attack. The offense is still inconsistent and some play-makers need to step up, but I see this as a tight division game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Eagles are not an elite team. They started the season 0-2 and held on to get their first victory last weekend. They are flawed...but I still like them a hell of a lot better than Washington who I don't think will be able to exploit the Philly's major defensive shortcomings against the pass. Home underdogs usually grab my attention but for this one, which falls into that likelihood of win the game and get the cover, I am going with the Eagles on the road. I just don't trust the Redskins in any situation and an extra couple of day's prep for Washington is not going to be enough.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Green Bay/ San Francisco Over

I'm going to take the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total of 48.5 points. The Packers lowest scoring game so far this season is 44 points in Week 2's Sunday Night Football showdown against the Seahawks. That's the only contest Green Bay hasn't eclipsed 30 points, as they head into Week 4 averaging 32.0 ppg. Now they face a 49ers defense that has allowed 90 points the last two weeks.

While San Francisco's defense did hold the Vikings to just 3-points at home in Week 1, Minnesota's offense is built around the running game with Adrian Peterson. The 49ers secondary wasn't tested in that game, but clearly should have been. San Francisco allowed Ben Roethlisberger to complete 21 of 27 for 369 yards and 3 scores in Week 2 and followed that up by allowing Carson Palmer to complete 20 of 32 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now they face arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a 5 TD performance against the Chiefs.

Some will point to Rodgers not being as good on the road as he is at home, but that's irrelevant with this matchup. What a lot of people don't realize is how much this game means to Rodgers and the Packers, as they have lost 4 straight to the 49ers with two of those coming in the playoffs. Rodgers doesn't forget about these kind of things and will be extremely motivated to not just beat San Francisco but embarrass them.

Now I could see some concern with backing the OVER at close to 50 points with a 49ers offense that hasn't looked good the last two weeks, but I'm expecting San Francisco to bounce back at home after playing the last two on the road. It will also help that Green Bay is playing on a short week of rest and has to travel quite a ways out to the west coast. I don't see it having a negative impact on Rodgers, but I do think it will take away from their defense.

The OVER is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 games in the month of October, 10-4 in their last 14 against the NFC and 14-6 in their last 20 road games. We also find a great system in play. The OVER is 36-11 since 1983 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is coming off a home win by 10 or more points and is undefeated on the season. That's a 70% long-term system.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Bengals

Edges -Bengals: 5-0 ATS in first of BB home games; and 8-1 ATS off SUATS away win. Chiefs: 0-5 ATS off Monday night games vs opponent off SUATS win. With 3-0 ATS home teams 27-3 SU and 18-12 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting foes with a losing record, we recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Carolina Panthers -3

Carolina travels to Tampa Bay to face a team they have dominated the last two seasons with four consecutive victories. The Panthers have a profile of a solid team. They seldom author huge blowouts, but are on an 8-1 SU run, losing only to Seattle in the playoffs, since the mid-way point of last season. The four areas that virtually guarantee success for an NFL team are dominance at the point of attack, an outstanding defense, a good QB, and a positive TO margin. The Panthers have put all those together for their 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS start. Now, we get them at a reasonable point spread in a game where they will extend all of the above. The Panthers are outrushing opponents by an average of 33/132 to 23/76, allowing their foes just 3.3 YPR, the best defensive mark in the league. That‘s part of a defense allowing just 16 PPG, 315 YPG, and 4.6 YP play, second only to Denver in that regard. The victories have been workman like, by 11 against Jax, 7 against Houston, and 5 against New Orleans, all teams that are of the same ilk as today’s opponent. Behind first year QB Winston, the Bucs are, well, the Bucs. A road victory at New Orleans (that’s the 0-3 SU Saints) is sandwiched by double digit losses of 42-14 on this field to Tennessee and 19-9 at Houston. The rookie QB is still taking his lumps. And until the Bucs begin to reverse their fortunes of their 7-20 ATS home dog log, we will continue to fade this team who is averaging just 16 PPG and is being outrushed at the point of attack 138-96, allowing their opponents to rush 35 times per game, the most in the NFL. That, as you know, is surely the KOD.


Washington Redskins +3

It does not take much to turn the head of the fickle public. At the start of the season, they were in love with the Eagles and had the Skins on their PLAY AGAINST list. Following a0-2 SU ATS start by Philly, including 26-24 loss at Atlanta and a 20-10 home loss to Dallas, they began to lose faith. But after last week’s victory against the Jets, which came in dominating fashion with a (+3) net TO margin and a 123-47 overland yardage edge, the love affair has returned. And why not with the Eagles being 13-7 SU, 14-6 ATS in this series on this field. Historically, however, there is danger ahead for this team, as 1-2 SU favorites who are off a win are in a 74% PLAY AGAINST situation. Unlike Philly, the Redskins were left for dead after a tumultuous preseason in which RG3 was ousted as starting signal caller. The Skins complied with public opinion, when they blew a 10-0 lead on this field in a 17-10 Game 1 loss to Miami. In week 2, public opinion was strongly against them, as they were in the same role of home dog against a St. Louis team who had just whipped Seattle. It was no surprise to this bureau that Washington emerged with a 24-10 SU victory. But, their dismal performance in NY last week has maintained the public’s distaste for this team. Last Thursday night, the Skins had a (-3) net TO margin and despite outgaining the Giants 393-363, lost the game 32-21. With 10 days’ rest, I see good things for the Skins in this game. A (-5) net TO margin is a solid indicator of a turnaround in that area. But, the greatest area of interest is the Redskins’ running game. Washington worked hard in the last 2 seasons to rebuild their lines. It has clearly paid off this year, despite the 1-2 SU ATS start. For the season, the Skins are outrushing their opposition 144/4.6 to 75/3.6. That dominance is confirmed in the rushing attempt column which is 31 to 21 in favor of the Skins. After 3 games, Washington is outgaining their foes 372-277, while Philly is BEING OUTGAINED 360-285. Why would the Redskins be a home underdog in this game?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN FRANCISCO +9½ over Green Bay

In terms of situational betting, it really doesn’t get any better than this. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, one of the best QB’s ever while the 49ers have pea-brain Colin Kaepernick running the show. Green Bay is coming off a Monday night win against Kansas City in which it looked like they could have named the score. San Fran is coming off a 40-point loss in Arizona. Teams coming off strong prime-time performances, especially popular teams, are almost always overpriced the following week. Teams coming off blowout losses are almost always underpriced. In Arizona, Kaepernick threw four interceptions. He completed 9-of-19 passes for 67 yards. If the coaches try to explain to Kaepernick that he should not have "thrown that ball", he’ll cover his ears and sing “The Wheels on the Bus” to mask the truth. The entire football community was calling this year the death of the 49ers and that’s not far from the truth. Nobody wants to go near them.

The Packers are 3-0 but let’s not forget about the trouble they had in Chicago in Week 1. That was an ugly win. In Week 2 at home against the Seahawks, the Pack wanted to destroy Seattle. They didn’t. They won 27-17 and while it was a decent win, it wasn’t the smack down they were hoping for. Last week was a Monday nighter. This now sets up as a trouble or letdown spot for the Pack after compiling a 3-0 record and traveling on a short week. On paper this is a mismatch. It’s impossible to make a case for playing Kaep over Rodgers but we’ll leave the breakdown and matchup comparisons to the experts. A key criterion to betting successfully on any sport is being able to recognize danger spots and to avoid them. Situational handicapping is as important and perhaps more so than statistical handicapping. This is one of those spots where we get an inflated price in a great situational spot for the home dog and we’re all over it.

Cleveland +7 over SAN DIEGO

The Brownies weren’t supposed to lose last week against Oakland traveling east. They were also blown out by the Jets in Week 1. Cleveland’s only win thus far was against the Titans. Cleveland has done little to attract attention and the result is some adjusted points in our favor.

Seriously, who the f**k are the Chargers to be spotting seven points to anyone? They have had one average game so far, a 24-19 loss to the Bengals. In Week 1, they fought tooth and nails to overcome a 21-3 deficit to Detroit. Last week they were smoked in Minnesota and they keep losing bodies. The Chargers have not had a single lead this season after three quarters. They always seem to be fighting an uphill battle. San Diego has nothing but problems throughout its entire lineup. The offensive line is a mess and so is the secondary. Philip Rivers is slow afoot so that banged up offensive line figures to get greatly exposed. We just don’t understand what the appeal is in backing the Chargers. San Diego was headed for a disappointing season even before the injuries began to mount and things have gone from bad to worse. This is a team that scored a mere 14 points last week at Minnesota. When we back underdogs like Cleveland, we hope that they will shorten the game and limit possessions. In this case, the favorite is going to do that for us. Until San Diego shows some offensive punch and stops gift-wrapping points for the opponent, the idea of the Chargers laying a converted TD to any team with a pulse is too good to pass up.

TAMPA BAY +3 over Carolina

The Panthers are 3-0 and the market loves undefeated teams. We’re suggesting the Panthers are a weak 3-0 and cannot be favored on the road. Carolina’s three wins came against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans and none of them were impressive. Combined, that trio is 2-7. Carolina defeated Jacksonville only because they won the turnover battle, 3-1. The Jags racked up more yards and had more first downs than Carolina. In Week 2 against Houston, Carolina won by a TD, 27-20 in what was a very equal game, stats wise. Last week at home against New Orleans minus Drew Brees, the Panthers were down 10 points early and gave up nearly 400 yards to Luke McCown and the Saints offense. As a 10-point favorite, Carolina had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession battle to perhaps the worst defense in the NFL. They won by five points only because they won the turnover battle again by two. Cam Newton struggles to put up yards on the road and he struggles to put up yards against good defenses.

The Buccaneers are 1-2. They were smoked by the Titans in their season opener at home. Getting smoked (42-14) by the Titans is something that should never occur. We cannot overstate enough how near impossible it is to get smoked by the Titans. That’s the last taste the Bucs left in the mouths of their fans. The Bucs played a brutal game and it’s highly unlikely to happen again against this comparable to Tennessee team. We wrote a long piece before the season opener on Tampa’s potential and why they might surprise this year (you can read it by clicking here). That choice bit us where the sun does not shine. The Bucs responded by going into New Orleans in Week 2 (against Brees) and defeating the Saints by seven. In Houston last week, the Bucs FG kicker Kyle Brindza missed three field goals and an extra point and Tampa lost by 10. We understand that the Bucs have played three weak teams also. However, Carolina is void of good receivers and playmakers other than Greg Olsen but the Bucs defense ranks well against TE’s. Carolina has lived a charmed life this season with turnovers bouncing in their lap. Our position is that the Panthers are weak. Spotting points with bad teams seldom works out well. Spotting points with weak teams on the road is suicide. Bucs outright is the call but taking the points is the wager.

St. Louis +7 over ARIZONA

The Cardinals are 3-0 and have scored 95 points over the past two weeks. Last week they were a 6½-point choice over the 49ers and this week they are a half point higher than that against a team that is superior to the 49ers. That’s how overreactions work. Suddenly, the Cardinals stock is soaring. Not only are the Cardinals 3-0 both straight up and against the spread but their players are putting up big fantasy numbers too. The world has taken notice. The Cardinals are a very good team. They are also well-coached and very rarely beat themselves. Three weeks in and Carson Palmer is a top five quarterback with two 300+ yard games and nine scores. Yes indeed, the Cardinals are the newest powerhouse in the NFC. This is the week that everyone is jumping on board and that means were jumping off because Arizona is not this good and we’re taking back inflated points.

In week 1, the Cardinals defeated the pitiful Saints 31-19. That game was 17-13 after three quarters and New Orleans had their chances to take the lead. In Week 2 in Chicago against the pitiful Bears. That game was 21-20 when Cutler threw a pick-six and never returned. That was just two weeks ago and the Cardinals were just a two-point favorite. Last week against San Fran, the blowout was legit but the 49ers are also pitiful and that game was 31-0 very early. So far this year the Cardinals have been favored by two points twice this year against two very weak teams. You may have to go back seven or eight years to find the last time the Cardinals were being asked to spot a converted TD. Back-to-back blowouts against two dumpster fires suddenly has them spotting New England like points.

We all know who the Rans are. They play their best when the worst is expected and vice versa. They already defeated Seattle and subsequently lost to Washington. Last week they scored a measly six points at home. The Rams have only allowed two passing TD’s this entire year. Nick Foles is a capable QB that can go off for big games. He had a big game against Seattle in the opener and he had a bunch of strong outings last year. In fact, Foles went off for 322, 331, 325 and 411 yards in four separate games last season. His best game (411 yards) was against these same Cardinals. These two are division rivals. They play each other twice a year and there is familiarity. St. Louis is better than they showed the past couple of weeks and it also has been very strong in bounce-back spots under Jeff Fisher. We’re always on the lookout for inflated points and this one definitely fits the bill.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors win big in Week 3


There were eight teams that were 2-0 against the spread coming into Week 3 and the betting public rode four of them strong in parlays coupled with two of their favorite weekly staples which made Sunday's NFL action a disaster for Las Vegas sports books.

"We lost every afternoon game after doing okay in the morning, but bettors cashed on the five to six games they really keyed on collectively," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood just prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game after tabulating the damage from the first 13 games.

"The games we did okay on were the games that didn't attract as much attention." The Patriots to the OVER was a very popular combination in the morning and the Falcons coming back against Dallas made almost everyone in the book happy; the Steelers were also good for the players, and then in the afternoon, the combination of the Seahawks, Cardinals and Bills all covering kicked in all the big parlay payouts. The Bills were a game that both the sharps and public were on the same side."

The Falcons, Steelers and Cardinals are all 3-0 ATS now and the final piece to Sunday's equation was the Broncos in the Sunday night game at Detroit where the public had no problem laying 3-points with Denver, who had won and covered its first two games while the Lions had lost and failed to cover both their games.

Rood said they needed the Lions to somewhat salvage something on the day and had a double whammy in the evening with the late baseball game as bettors rode the Pirates eight-game winning streak.

The Cubs’ Jake Arrieta would come through for the books in a 4-0 Chicago Cubs win, but the risk in that game paled in comparison to the Broncos, which was ultimately the final nail in the coffin for the books as Denver's defense led the way in a 24-12 win.

The books can sometimes escape a week when three common teams come in for the public, but when five- team parlays come cashing in at 20/1 odds and six-teamers at 40/1 are a common occurrence, there is no way the house can recoup those losses.

Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick simply described the day as "bad" citing the same teams Rood and the rest of the books had difficulties with on the day. "The Falcons, Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks and Bills filled up the players bank accounts."

If there was a positive side for the books, it came with the Colts failing to cover (-3) at Tennessee in a wild 35-33 win. Despite the Colts failing to win or cover its first two games, bettors liked them to bounce back against the Titans and were taken for a roller coaster ride of emotions. Down 27-14 heading into the fourth quarter, the Colts reeled off 21 unanswered points to take a 35-27 lead and what looked to be a gift cover. But the Titans would quickly storm back and score a touchdown with 47 seconds remaining.

The books were rooting for a failed two-point conversion attempt, while bettors wanted the conversion made to send it into overtime with hopes of at least getting a Colts push with a field goal or a cover with a touchdown. But the two-point conversion failed; two-point win for the Colts and the one saving grace from the books calling it a “Sunday Bloody Sunday.”

It's kind of surprising to see such a rough day for the books when the favorites only went 6-8 ATS on the day, but it was in those winning favorites that they rode. They also loved the Steelers who were pushed from the favorite to underdog by kickoff by larger money taking the Rams. The Falcons were getting +1 at Dallas with a Cowboys squad playing without Tony Romo, and then there was the Bills, who they loved along with the wise guys, which were pushed from a three-point dog to pick 'em by kickoff.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all so far this season has been the Cardinals. Last season they started out 9-1, but this year’s 3-0 start is impressive just because they're averaging 42 points a game. They have won and covered all three of its games easily while sending all three games OVER the total, a combination the public loves to ride, and they were all over it on Sunday as the most one-side bet game of the day.

Next up for Arizona is a home date Sunday against the Rams where the Cardinals are 6 ½-point favorites, and you can believe the books will all be Rams fans next week as bettors will be coming heavily armed with cash from Week 3 winnings to the window to load up again on them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 4 Essentials

Hey, look, it’s a new month. If your team is on the wrong side of .500, it’s officially time to panic. In honor of the late, great Yogi Berra, this is your reminder that “it gets late early out there.” Here's what's in store in Week 4:


Sunday, Oct. 4

N.Y. Jets vs Miami:

This one’s in London, chaps and babes. Why is beyond me, since divisional games should not be taken overseas, but the setting provides an interesting variable for two teams coming off losses. The Dolphins haven’t recorded a sack since Week 1, while the Jets come off a home loss to desperate Philadelphia that was marred by mental miscues. RB Chris Ivory should return to the backfield after sitting against the Eagles with a quad injury. New York missed his physical presence and failed to take much pressure off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so expect an emphasis to be placed on getting the ground game going against Miami.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:

The Colts survived in Tennessee thanks to a failed two-point conversion, but gave up 33 points and are now surrendering 26.7 points through their first three weeks. They haven’t covered yet, so keep that in mind if you’re thinking of laying the lumber. The Jags were winless on the road last season and were destroyed by New England last week, but it should be noted that they covered or pushed in four of their last five road games last season. QB Blake Bortles threw for a pair of scores against the Patriots, which is an improvement since he passed for just four touchdowns against six interceptions in away games as a rookie.

Houston at Atlanta:

Star lineman J.J. Watt and the defense won a game for the Texans, but the running game re-emerging against Tampa Bay provided the biggest boost. Arian Foster may return here, but even if he doesn’t, Alfred Blue has gotten himself going enough to ensure he’ll get some carries. The run game will be key on the road as Houston tries to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands as much as possible. Julio Jones may very well be the NFL MVP through the first three weeks, outperforming even Tom Brady in terms of overall impact. The Falcons are 3-0 solely because the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys couldn’t find a way to cover him. Collectively, Houston’s secondary will be the best he’s faced this season.

Carolina at Tampa Bay:

The Panthers have survived the preseason injury to Kelvin Benjamin and a nasty concussion to the team’s best player, linebacker Luke Kuechly. Odds are good he’ll get through protocol to participate in this one, which is bad news for Jameis Winston. The No. 1 pick didn’t respond well to missing tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and had a brutal time in the home opener against Tennessee. It will be interesting to see how he handles facing elite defenses in back-to-back weeks.

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo:

Veteran Eli Manning finished off Washington with a heave to Rueben Randle and will have Victor Cruz back in the fold for this trip to upstate New York. The Giants will be more rested having played on Thursday, not to mention as healthy as they’ve been all season since left tackle Ereck Flowers will be back and MLB Jon Beason has returned. The Bills won their first road game under Rex Ryan by routing Miami and will look to make Manning as uncomfortable as possible. Offensively, they may have to make due without LeSean McCoy, whose hamstring issue isn’t healing. He’ll need to sit a game if he wants to get it healthier since rest is the only way to heal a bad hammy.

Oakland at Chicago:

QB Derek Carr led the Raiders to their first road victory since 2013, ending the 11-game losing streak by throwing for 314 yards and two touchdown, protecting the ball brilliantly against a sturdy defense. He’s starting to separate himself from the rest of the 2014 QB class with his poise and precision, but he it’s also worth pointing out that thanks to rookie Amari Cooper, he’s got the best receiving target to work with. Oakland hasn’t won consecutive road games since November of 2011 and hasn’t won three straight since that same month. QB Jay Cutler is likely out again, but backup Jimmy Clausen should have Alshon Jeffery back as the Bears’ top target after he missed the 26-0 loss to Seattle.

Philadelphia at Washington:

The slumping Sam Bradford had another poor performance in the win at the Jets, so concern is mounting since he’s really only had one above-average half all season. DeMarco Murray may be back so the Eagles can further emphasize their run game in what should be a grinder of a game against the rival ‘Skins. Coming off a brutal effort on Thursday night, Kirk Cousins will also be under pressure to fight off boo birds and keep a firm hold on his newly-earned starting gig. It would help to get DeSean Jackson back from his hamstring injury, but a decision there isn’t likely until later in the week. You know Jackson would love to face Chip Kelly and his former team if he’s healthy enough to do so.

Kansas City at Cincinnati:

Coming off a Monday night game in Green Bay, the Chiefs have to go right back out on the road to face the undefeated Bengals. A.J. Green was unstoppable in leading his team past the Bengals but will definitely be facing the best secondary he’s seen to date as Cincinnati continues a stretch that will see them also host Seattle and visit Buffalo and Pittsburgh after winning in Baltimore on Sunday. If the Bengals manage to survive this in style, you’ll undoubtedly see their Super Bowl odds decrease.

Cleveland at San Diego:

After losing at home to the Raiders, you’ll undoubtedly hear more talk that Johnny Manziel should be out there leading the Browns given his youth and the first-round pick his team invested, so Cleveland will take that baggage out to Cali. Head coach Mike Pettine has stressed that Josh McCown gives his team the best chance to win, so don’t expect a change despite news that McCown has a banged-up hand. The Chargers have their own issues, namely an offensive line that simply can’t get healthy, which has led to uneven offense. QB Philip Rivers will have to hope that top target Keenan Allen can consistently win against Joe Haden.

Green Bay at San Francisco:

QB Colin Kaepernick’s Sunday couldn’t have started worse, so his ability to get the 49ers off confidently and without turnovers is going to be crucial given Aaron Rodgers’ presence on the other side. The Packers have found ways to move the ball without Jordy Nelson and despite a banged up offensive line, which is a testament to Rodgers’ brilliance. The Chico, Ca. native has lost four consecutive games against the 49ers and has never beaten them on the road. Green Bay’s last win in San Francisco, way back in 2006, was engineered by Brett Favre.

Minnesota at Denver:

If you were to believe a lot of the chatter, Denver is undefeated in spite of Peyton Manning. While the driving force of this year’s team is undoubtedly the defense, there’s no question that Manning has grown into his new role and has delivered when it’s mattered most. Odds are he’ll have to come through down the stretch once again given how well the Vikings have played over the last two weeks, but Teddy Bridgewater has to prove he can be the same quarterback on the road that he’s been the past few games in Minneapolis.

St. Louis at Arizona:

The Rams have scored 16 points in the last eight quarters and face a defense that has feasted on mistakes over the first few weeks. This road game will make the difference between improving to 2-0 in NFC West play and keeping pace with these Cardinals and the Seahawks or a 1-3 start that would dig St. Louis a significant hole. Bruce Arians has his team undefeated and attacking on both sides of the ball. Arizona last started 4-0 in 2012, something it hadn’t done since 1974 but proved to be a false alarm since it finished 5-11. Last year’s team lost in this spot after a 3-0 start, but ended up moving to 9-1 before its injury-related demise. Carson Palmer has thrown nine TD passes and just two interceptions.

Dallas at New Orleans:

While it's true Brandon Weeden couldn’t come through down the stretch against the Falcons, but he wasn’t the reason the Cowboys lost their first game of the season. Considering he opened his first start since Week 8 of last season with nine straight completions, the Cowboys have to feel confident he can take his act on the road and give the team a chance to win. It sounds like Drew Brees will try and play after missing the loss at Carolina with a shoulder injury, but it’s likely to be a game-time decision whether he can actually make it back. Josh McCown did a decent job against the Panthers and wasn’t the reason the Saints went down either.

Monday, Oct. 5

Detroit at Seattle:

The Seahawks flexed their muscles at home after a rough start, so they’ll have the most dominant homefield advantage in the NFL in play as Detroit comes looking for their first win. The Legion of Boom is back intact now that Kam Chancellor has returned, but considering they just saw the Jeffery-less Bears, facing off against Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the Lions other weapons will offer a much stiffer challenge. The Lions have to hope that Matthew Stafford can get a little healthier this week in order to have a realistic chance at this upset. The guy that went out there against Denver isn’t beating the Seahawks in their house on a Monday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting Recap - Week 3


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 3 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 7-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-6

The largest underdog to win straight up
Raiders (+3.5, ML +160) at Browns, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Bears, 26-0


Touchdown or more? No problem

-- After a ton of upsets in Week 2, order was restored in Week 3. Four teams were favored by a touchdown or more in Week 3, and not only did all four teams win but they went 3-1 against the number. The Seattle Seahawks (-16.5) were the biggest favorite on the board, and they took care of business by a 26-0 score over the hapless Chicago Bears. The New England Patriots (-14) powered past the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 51-17 score, while the Arizona Cardinals (-7) clubbed the San Francisco 49ers by a 47-7 count. The Carolina Panthers kept their record unblemished, but backup QB Luke McCown and the New Orleans Saints were able to grab the backdoor cover (see bad beats below).
Divisional business

-- There were six divisional games in Week 3, and home and road teams split 3-3 SU/ATS. The favorite went 4-2 SU with the underdog going 4-2 ATS.
The autumn wind is a high-scoring pirate...

-- The Oakland Raiders moved to 2-1 SU/ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in each of their three games to date. The Raiders are averaging 25.7 points per game while yielding 28.7 points per game. The Raiders have the best record of all three California teams, too, as the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers are each 1-2 SU/ATS.

Total Recall

-- It was a high-scoring weekend of football, as the 'over' hit in 10 of 16 games, including two of the three primetime games. The game with the highest total (49) was the Jaguars-Patriots battle, and New England took care of the over themselves. The second-highest total on the board was the Steelers-Rams (48.5) games, and that game had the lowest production of all games with just 18 total points. The total might have been done before it started when Ben Roethlisberger (knee) left early in the first half with a sprained medial collateral ligament.

-- The game with the lowest total, the Buccaneers-Texans (41) game went well under with 28 total points.

-- Is there a new 'McCown' trend? In games with a quarterback named McCown as the starter, the 'over' is 2-0. Luke McCown started for the New Orleans Saints, and their game at Carolina hit the over, while Josh McCown started for the Cleveland Browns, and their game against Oakland also went over. Another trend is that they both lost.

-- For the first time this season the over edged out the under in primetime games, 2-1. In four primetime games in Week 1, the under went 3-1, and the under was 2-1 in Week 2. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013. So far this season the over is 4-6 (40%) through 10 games.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of Week 3 was Roethlisberger (knee), who is expected to be sidelined anywhere from four to six weeks. Michael Vick will take over the reins of Pittsburgh's offense, so watch those totals in future weeks. The Steelers offense won't score like they had been before Big Ben went down, although keep in mind Le'Veon Bell is now back from suspension to lessen the blow somewhat.

-- Bills WR Sammy Watkins (calf) left the game at Miami due to a calf injury, although it is possible he was removed as a precaution with the game well out of hand.

-- Panthers DE Charles Johnson (hamstring) left the win against the Saints due to a hamstring injury, and he is expected to be OUT for Week 4. As such, the team acquired DE Jared Allen from the Bears for a sixth-round draft pick on Monday.

-- Bears QB Jay Cutler (hamstring) did not play in a 26-0 loss in Seattle, nor did WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring). Cutler is expected to sit again in Week 4 against the surprising Raiders, although Jeffery feels he'll be ready.

-- Packers WR Davante Adams (ankle) aggravated his ankle injury early in the Monday night game against the Chiefs and was unable to return.

-- Jaguars WR Marqise Lee (hamstring) injured his hamstring against the Patriots, although he felt he could have returned if needed.

-- Vikings WR Charles Johnson (ribs) left the win against the Chargers, and his status for Week 4 is uncertain.

-- Jets TE Jeff Cumberland (head) left the loss against the Eagles, and his status for Sunday's early-morning game in London against the Dolphins is in question.

Bad Beats

-- The Bengals-Ravens (45.5) game looked like a slam-dunk unnder with a total of just 21 points through three quarters. Then the offense kicked into high gear with a total of 31 points in the fourth quarter. In addition, there were four lead changes in the final stanza, with the Ravens covering the 2 1/2-point number with 6:49 to go. The Bengals were covering just 12 seconds later, then the Ravens were covering at 3:56. With 2:10 to go, the Bengals struck the final blow and came away with the 28-24 wild win.

-- The Panthers were covering a 9 1/2-point number for most of the fourth quarter, but the Saints struck for a touchdown with 4:50 left to not only help New Orleans to a cover, but that score also changed the total result from a push to an over.

-- The Colts picked up their first victory of the season, and it appeared they were on their way to their first cover, too. However, a Titans touchdown with just :47 remaining helped the home team to a cover. Indy is now 0-3 ATS.

Looking Ahead

-- The Ravens and Steelers get together Thursday in Pittsburgh, and the game has a different look with Vick starting for the home team. The Steelers are home dogs by 2 1/2 points currently, with a total at 44 1/2. The over is 11-4-2 in the past 17 meetings at Heinz Field. Baltimore enters the game with a 14-5 ATS mark in their past 19 against teams witha winning record, while Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a losing overall mark.

-- The Jets and Dolphins do battle at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30am ET. The Jets have covered six straight against AFC foes, while the Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their past six against conference opponents. New York is also 23-9-1 ATS in the past 33 meetings in this series.

-- The Jaguars hit the road for Indianapolis to battle the Colts, who, as mentioned, are 0-3 ATS so far. While they're 17-4-1 ATS in their past 22 against divisional opponents, the favorite has cashed in each of the past five meetings in this series. Jacksonville is also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

-- Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers ready for their second divisional game, and first at home. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their past five divisional games. However, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the favorite 11-4 ATS in the past 15.

-- The Eagles head to the nation's capital to battle the Redskins. While the Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, Washington isn't much better. The 'Skins are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 divisional battles, 8-19 ATS in their past 27 against the NFC and a dismal 4-12 ATS in their past 16 overall. The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 battles with the over hitting in four of the past five meetings.

-- In the sixth and final divisional game of the weekend, the Cardinals host the Rams. St. Louis is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 divisional games, while Arizona is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games. The Cards are 20-7 ATS in their past 27, 21-8 ATS in their past 29 against NFC opponents and 5-2 ATS in their past seven divisional outings. The Rams are also 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to the desert, and 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under is 8-3 in the past 11 in Glendale, and 10-4 in the past 14 meetings overall.