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Tech Trends - Week 4


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

SUNDAY, OCT. 4

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets "under" 8-3 last ten since late 2014. If Philbin a dog note 10-6 mark last 16 in role. Note that Rex Ryan covered 6 of last 8 vs. Dolphins while with Jets.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Series all-Colts lately, who have won and covered last five meetings, all of those by DD margins. Gus Bradley 11-21-1 as dog since 2013. "Unders" 7-1 last eight in series. Colts were 12-4-1 last 17 as chalk entering 2015 but 0-3 in role TY.
Tech Edge: Colts and "under," based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

HOUSTON at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Head coach Bill O'Brien 3-5-1 as dog since LY, Texans 6-10-1 in role since 2013. Falcs were 1-7 vs. line against AFC the past two years for Mike Smith, but are now soaring at 3-0 SU and vs. line for new HC Dan Quinn.
Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
"Unders" 3-0 last three and 4-1-1 last six in series. Cam 2-6 as road chalk since 2012. Bucs 2-8 vs. spread last 10 at Raymond James Stadium.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

N.Y. GIANTS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Since late 2005, Bills are 5-14 vs. line in game after facing hated Dolphins. G-Men have covered last three on road since late 2014, and have covered 3 of last 4 as dog. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away. Bills "under" 9-2 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

OAKLAND at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
John Fox on 3-8 spread skid last ten with Denver & Bears since late LY. Bears 4-12-2 last 16 vs. number at home. Raiders "over" 9-3 last 12 since mid 2014.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Redskins covered both LY and 4 of last 6 vs. Birds. Chip on 2-5 spread skid since late 2014. Eagles had been "over" 11-5 on road for Chip before "under" first two TY at Falcons and Jets. "Overs" 4-1 last five meetings. Skins 6-13 last 19 vs. spread at FedEx Field.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Eagles, based on "totals" trends and Skins home woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

KANSAS CITY at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 7-3 last 10 as pick or dog. Chiefs 8-5 vs. spread last 13 on road in reg. season. Cincy "under" 8-4 last 12 since mid 2014, and 13-3-1 last 17 vs. spread at Paul Brown Stadium. Though only 4-5-1 last 10 as chalk.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CLEVELAND at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Brownies 5-2-1 as road underdog since last year. Bolts only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at Qualcomm Stadium.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jim Harbaugh was 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 vs. line against Packers. Niners have dropped 8 of last 9 vs. line since late LY, but did get cover in home opener vs. Vikings. Niners "under" 7-2 in Santa Clara. Pack 6-2 last eight as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

MINNESOTA at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 17-8 vs. spread in reg season at Sports Authority since Manning arrived in 2012. Also "over" 17-9 last 26 at home. Though the Mike Zimmer Vikes are "under" 7-2 away since last year.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

ST. LOUIS at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bruce Arians 4-0 vs. line against Rams since 2013. Big Red 11-3-1 vs. spread last 15 at home. Also "over" first three this season. Fisher 5-12 vs. line away since 2013.
Tech Edge: Cards and "over," based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints no wins or covers last six at Superdome! Last four "over" vs. Dallas since 2010. Cowboys 9-1 vs. line away since last season! Also 7-2 "over" last nine away.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 5

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

DETROIT at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Lions now 3-8 vs. line away for head coach Jim Caldwell, and 9-22-1 vs. spread last 32 away. Caldwell "under" 7-2 away since LY. Pete 18-6 vs. spread as regular season host since 2012.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Falcons, Panthers are cream of NFC crop

Move over, NFC West. The NFC South is No. 1.

Seven wins were good enough to win the South last year when Carolina beat Atlanta in a winner-take-all regular season finale to clinch the title at 7-8-1.

Now, both teams are 3-0. It's the only division with two undefeated teams.

The natural overreaction is to call the NFC South the best in football. But not so fast.

The Falcons rallied for a 39-28 win over Dallas on Sunday to become the first team in NFL history to start 3-0 after trailing in the fourth quarter of each game. But they're a couple plays away from 1-2.

Let's see how well Atlanta fares against teams outside the NFC East. The Falcons beat Philadelphia because Cody Parkey missed a field goal late in the fourth quarter. They beat the New York Giants after a costly fumble in the red zone by Eli Manning. They knocked off the Cowboys without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

New coach Dan Quinn might be the early favorite to win the Coach of the Year Award and Julio Jones looks unstoppable, but these Falcons still have a way to go to compare to the Dirty Birds.

As for the Panthers, they beat the Jaguars (1-2), Texans (1-2) and Saints (0-3) without Drew Brees. Their schedule gets tougher with four of the next five games against Seattle, Indianapolis, Green Bay and the Eagles.

The Falcons and Panthers are certainly the class of their division and one of them should win it with double-digit victories instead of seven. But, they've still got to prove they can play with teams like Green Bay (2-0), Arizona (3-0) and even Seattle (1-2).

Here are other overreactions from Week 3:

OVERREACTION: The Steelers can't win without Big Ben. A knee injury will force Pittsburgh (2-1) to play several games without Ben Roethlisberger.

REALISTIC REACTION: Michael Vick has won plenty of games in the NFL, and he has plenty of talent around to help. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are arguably the best receiver-runner combo in the NFL. Vick still has a strong arm, and he's still elusive, even at 35 years old.

---

OVERREACTION: Same old Jets. They fell behind the hapless Eagles 24-0 before rallying only to fall short in a 24-17 loss.

REALISTIC REACTION: It was a classic trap game for New York. The Jets (2-1) had a short week coming off a Monday night win at Indianapolis with a trip to London coming up. They faced a nonconference team desperate to save its season, setting them up for a letdown.

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OVERREACTION: The Ravens are done. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell to 0-3 with a 28-24 loss at home to Cincinnati (3-0).

REALISTIC REACTION: It will be a tough road for Baltimore, which had been the only existing team to never lose its first three games. But the Ravens aren't this bad. They had a chance to win each game, and their upcoming schedule is favorable.

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OVERREACTION: Derek Carr is the next Rich Gannon. A week after throwing for 351 yards and three TDs in a win over Baltimore, Carr had 314 yards passing and two TDs against Cleveland while leading Oakland (2-1) to its first road win since 2013.

REALISTIC REACTION: Carr is playing well, but Gannon was an NFL MVP who led the team to a Super Bowl. Carr is already better than Terrelle Pryor and JaMarcus Russell, though.

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OVERREACTION: Gary Kubiak is a genius. The Broncos are 3-0, their defense is strong and Peyton Manning is playing like his old self.

REALISTIC REACTION: The Broncos beat teams who are a combined 1-7. They've always won games they should win. It's the tough games against playoff teams that give them trouble.

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OVERREACTION: Time to jump off the Cowboys' bandwagon. Dallas blew three 14-point leads in a loss to Atlanta.

REALISTIC REACTION: If Brandon Weeden leads the Cowboys to 28 points every week, they'll make the playoffs without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

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OVERREACTION: The AFC South is the NFC South. The Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans are tied at 1-2.

REALISTIC REACTION: Andrew Luck is 17-2 within the division so the Colts are a good bet to reach 9-7.

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OVERREACTION: Bench Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers lost 47-7 to Arizona, and Kaepernick threw four interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns.

REALISTIC REACTION: Get serious. Blaine Gabbert was 5-22 in Jacksonville. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the NFC championship game twice in three seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bills WR Watkins is uncertain for Week 4

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Buffalo Bills receiver Sammy Watkins' status is uncertain for Sunday's game against the New York Giants because of a calf injury.

Coach Rex Ryan provided an update on Monday, a day after Watkins left in the first quarter of the Bills' 41-14 win at Miami.

Ryan said ''it's a possibility'' Watkins won't be available this week. Bills players had Monday off.

Watkins, the second-year receiver, has seven receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown through the first three games.

The Bills (2-1) host the Giants (1-2) on Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lions coach Caldwell sticking with OC

ALLEN PARK, Mich. (AP) Detroit Lions coach Jim Caldwell says he is not taking play-calling duties away from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.

Caldwell, though, says he understands why critical questions are being asked Monday one day after his team fell to 0-3.

He has hope the Lions can have success on offense, pointing to how they were ''humming along pretty well,'' in the preseason and early in the season opener at San Diego.

It won't be easy for Detroit to bounce back and get a win.

The Lions travel to play the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks next Monday night, then return to host the high-scoring, NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals after a short week of preparation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Raiders' Del Rio sees room to grow after back-to-back wins

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) If there was any danger of the Oakland Raiders becoming overconfident this week facing the winless Chicago Bears after winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2012, coach Jack Del Rio delivered a warning Monday.

''There's a lot of growth in front of us and we absolutely got to grind and push and continue to sacrifice, and as coaches we're going to continue to demand,'' Del Rio said, one day after a 27-20 victory against the Cleveland Browns. ''And we expect to play a lot better football as we go forward in the season, and the only way you can do that is if you put in the work.''

The Raiders (2-1) ended their 11-game road losing streak and their 16-game skid in the Eastern time zone on Sunday. Now they'll try to win three straight for the first time since 2011, when former coach Hue Jackson led them to victories against San Diego and Minnesota on the road then Chicago at home.

For the second straight week, the Raiders delivered a big play down the stretch to secure a victory. Two weeks ago, quarterback Derek Carr threw a game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Seth Roberts with 26 second left in a 37-33 victory against Baltimore. At Cleveland, free safety Charles Woodson intercepted a Josh McCown pass at the Raiders' 12 with 38 seconds remaining.

''We try and make all the little details important every day so when it's late in the fourth quarter and it's time to make a play, you're going to do what you're trained to do,'' Del Rio said.

The Raiders' improved offense had triple-digit days from three of its top young weapons - Carr, running back Latavius Murray and rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. Carr passed for 314 yards and two touchdowns, Murray carried 26 times for 139 yards and one score, and Cooper caught eight passes for 134 yards.

''It's important to have weapons available,'' Del Rio said. ''What gives it all a chance to go is the offensive line. I think where you as a football team have a chance to look at some of those playmakers running down the field is if your offensive line is holding up and blocking well. It starts with the men in the trenches. Defensively I'd say the same thing. It starts with our guys up front.''

On defense, the Raiders had their first five sacks of the season, with linebacker Khalil Mack getting two of those and forcing a fumble.

The Raiders made strides overall defensively but got burned for the third straight game by an opposing tight end, this time Gary Barnidge, who had six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown.

''There's a cloaking device I think they have,'' Del Rio joked. ''Somehow they're going right down the field without us able to see them. We're going to see if we can remove that cloaking device.''

NOTES:

The Raiders released cornerback Chimdi Chekwa and rookie offensive tackle Anthony Morris from injured reserve. Morris was a seventh-round draft pick out Tennessee State. ... Defensive lineman C.J. Wilson (calf) was the only injured Raider who didn't finish the game Sunday. Del Rio said he won't know until later in week whether starting defensive tackle Justin Ellis (ankle) will be able to play Sunday after missing the past two games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Contenders or Pretenders

So…are we all set for the Jets/Bengals AFC championship game in January? Followed by the Falcons/Cardinals NFC title tilt? That would be quite a surprise, wouldn’t it, with Atlanta off a 6-10 season and the Jets off a 4-12 train wreck in 2014. Both seasons got their coaching staffs fired.

However, last season is ancient history. And that's the thing about the NFL: parity is very much alive and well, the life blood of the league for decades. They’ve been part of a group of surprise teams so far in the NFL.

The Jets blew out the Browns in the opener but many thought, "Anyone can beat the Browns." Then the New Yorkers went to Indianapolis and as a seven-point underdog shut down Andrew Luck and the Colts on Monday night, opening a lot of eyes.

Even the Rams got in the act opening day by slaying the Seahawks. But, as hoop legend Red Auerbach used to say, “It ain’t the 5 that start, it’s the 5 who finish.”

Just think back one year ago at this time. The Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals were the only 3-0 teams in the NFL. The eventual Super Bowl matchup was....Patriots/Seahawks.

In fact, those Patriots started 2-2 with all kinds of problems, prompting one national commentator to bark, "The Patriots aren't good anymore." To which Bill Belichick replied, "We're on to Cincinnati." Those same 3-0 Bengals got roasted by the Patriots and the rest was history.

I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries, personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football team, and a hot start doesn't mean that a team is great, just as a cold start doesn't mean a club is out of it.

This happens all the time. Scheduling can hurt a team out of the gate, as can injuries. Three times in the last four years the Chicago Bears had hot start before losing key players, including quarterback Jay Cutler, to injuries. Protecting vital assets like Cutler, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees is priority No. 1 for their head coaches -- and Brees is already banged up in 2015.

This is the era of offense in the NFL with all the rule changes, but no one told that to the Seahawks, Jets or Cardinals. Those Seahawks started 0-2 this year, but they are still a sizzling 38-17-1 against the spread versus the NFC, including 38-18-2 ATS at home after shutting out the Bears Sunday, 26-0.

In 2013 Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs started perfect, but didn’t finish up that way. They were league's first 3-0 team including a satisfying 26-16 road win over the Eagles, Reid’s old team. However, they didn’t face many tough quarterbacks during their 9-0 start and were actually outgained twice during their 3-0 start, so cracks were evident – if anyone cared to look close.

You want a strong finish, but you don’t want a cold start, either. The 2013 NY Giants started a miserable 0-6, then started to win and cover down the stretch. Of the 164 teams that have started the season 0-3 since 1978, only five made the NFL playoffs.

In each of their recent Super Bowl years the Giants played .500 football for much of the season before getting hot down the stretch. We saw that four years ago, too, as the Green Bay Packers were fortunate to stumble into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then went on a red-hot roll on the way to winning the whole thing.

Five years ago at this time the Bears and Chiefs were two of the remaining three unbeaten teams. They made the playoffs, but the Chiefs were one-and-done while the Bears fell short in the NFC title game. The Chiefs had been 85/1 to win the Super Bowl that season.

Sure, in 2009 the eventual Super Bowl participants, the Colts and Saints, had red-hot starts, both not far from 16-0 regular seasons. Yet, seven years ago as late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were.

Naturally, a team doesn't want to get off to bad starts, like this year's Ravens, Colts, Texans, Lions and Giants, but a poor start isn't a death knell. A poor start makes it tough as there are only 16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a hot start isn't mandatory. In 2013 Carolina started 1-3 but ended up 12-4 winning the division. Another recent season the Eagles looked terrible during a 0-2 SU/ATS start, then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular season, winning 13 of their next 15 games.

It's a marathon and all kinds of things can crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck, even scheduling, or bad chemistry. If your team is off to a disappointing start, relax; and if your team is off to a hot start, don’t start making preparations for the playoffs. It's not the fastest horse out of the gate, but the one who crosses the finish line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Public Fades - Week 4


The underdogs didn’t fare as well in Week 3 as they did in Week 2, while public plays Pittsburgh and Atlanta hit in non-favorite roles. Seattle, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, New England, Denver, and Green Bay all won as favorites and all picked up victories of 10 points or more. The third installment of this weekly piece has split each of its games in the first two columns, as the Titans covered while the Rams lost to the Steelers.

The point of this piece is to think outside of the box when betting on the NFL and focus on teams that will get very little attention against a public play, usually a favorite. This week (with some help from our experts), we’ll take a look at the Texans, who travel to Atlanta, and the Browns who venture out west to San Diego as our two clubs to keep an eye on in Week 4.

Texans at Falcons (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta has jumped out to a 3-0 start, but all three times the Falcons have trailed at some point in the fourth quarter. In the Week 3 triumph at Dallas, the Falcons erased a 14-point deficit in a 39-28 victory, thanks to a pair of touchdown catches by Julio Jones, who has eclipsed the 135-yard mark in each of the first three wins. Now, the Falcons are listed as a favorite for the first time this season (last week’s game closed at pick-em or Dallas -1 at most spots), as Atlanta posted a 2-5 ATS mark when laying points in 2014.

The Texans finally busted through the win column in an ugly 19-9 victory over the Buccaneers, while managing a cover as six-point home favorites. Houston hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game this season, while already playing its third interconference game. Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are 4-5 SU and 5-3-1 ATS on the road, even though the wins are over the Raiders, Titans, Browns, and Jaguars.

So why back the Texans?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson questions the Falcons’ early schedule against suspect competition, “Atlanta’s wins have all come against the NFC East, barely holding on to beat the Eagles by two while being out-gained, rallying from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Giants by four, and battling back from a 14-point deficit to pull ahead of Dallas, eventually winning by 11 after tacking on a late touchdown in the final minutes."

Breaking things down further, Nelson points out several bullets dodged by Atlanta early on, “The Eagles have looked like one of the worst offenses in the league in their other two games despite posting nearly 400 yards against the Falcons in the opening week. The Giants have the second-worst total defense in the NFL through three weeks and Atlanta benefitted greatly from a New York fumble inside the 10-yard line that saved the Falcons from being behind even further in that game. Atlanta caught Dallas playing its first game without Tony Romo last week with the Falcons’ defense allowing Dallas to still rush for 6.0 yards per carry despite a backup quarterback in the game and Brandon Weeden completing nearly 85 percent of his passes."

From the pointspread perspective, the major flip into the favorite role should put bettors on notice, “With the 3-0 start the Falcons have gone from being a +3 home underdog in the opening week to being nearly a touchdown home favorite in Week 4. Houston’s losses have both come by just seven points and with just 20 points allowed per game as the Texans figure to be the superior defensive team in this matchup. The Texans also finally got back to running the ball with success last week posting 186 yards on over 4.0 yards per carry and Ryan Mallett’s confidence should grow with a win under his belt."

Browns at Chargers (-7 ½, 45) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego returns home following consecutive road losses at Cincinnati and Minnesota, as the Lightning Bolts and Browns each enter Sunday’s contest at 1-2. The Chargers rallied from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Lions in the season opener, 33-28, while racking up 483 yards of offense. However, San Diego totaled 33 points in the last two defeats, despite outgaining Minnesota by 115 yards last Sunday.

The Browns were drilled in their season opener by the Jets, 31-10, as quarterback Josh McCown suffered an injury to open the door for Johnny Manziel in Week 2. The Heisman Trophy winner led Cleveland to a convincing 28-14 victory over Tennessee, but the Browns went back to McCown in Week 3 as they put up a clunker in a 27-20 home defeat to the Raiders. Cleveland has been outgained in all three games, while allowing at least 27 points in each loss.

So why back the Browns?

Nelson says that Cleveland has had its hands full through three weeks, “While the 1-2 start is discouraging, it is clear that the September schedule was tougher than it appeared to be. The Jets have looked like one of the better defensive teams in the league and Cleveland was buried by five turnovers in a game that was otherwise quite even statistically. In Week 2 the Browns beat the Titans by 14 and that win looks a bit more impressive at this point with Tennessee nearly beating the Colts last week and looking like they will be a competitive team this season. Last week’s loss to Oakland was a disappointment, but the Raiders are 2-1 with a greatly improved offense and Cleveland nearly battled back to tie that game after falling behind early."

There are positives with the Browns’ squad, especially with its pass defense, according to Nelson, “Cleveland has a well-respected secondary that has held opposing quarterbacks to just 60 percent completions and 237 passing yards per game and it is not hard to envision the Browns adding to the turnover trends for the Chargers. San Diego is hoping to develop its running game more this season but San Diego has been out-rushed by more than a yard per carry this season through three weeks. Only once all of last season were the Browns dogged by more than seven points and that was a Week 17 game in which rookie Connor Shaw started for Cleveland against a Ravens team that needed to win to make the playoffs and the Browns still covered."

Handicapper Antony Dinero believes McCown, in spite of an 0-2 record as a starter, is still the best option for Cleveland, “Regardless of what TMZ is reporting that Browns players are saying, there’s no question McCown currently gives Cleveland its best chance to win over Manziel at this stage of the season. Head coach Mike Pettine has the right guy in place to take his team on the road as they look to get back to .500. The Chargers only managed seven points in the first 59-plus minutes at Minnesota and are rightfully worried about the health of their offensive line. If Joe Haden is able to go despite a rib contusion suffered last week, San Diego’s top target Keenan Allen will have his hands full, as will his team.

Under Pettine, the Browns own an impressive 5-2 ATS record as a road underdog. However, Cleveland is making its first trip to the West Coast since 2012, when Cleveland knocked off Oakland, 20-17.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 4 odds

Early money has already moved the line on the Jets and Dolphins. Football bettors may not want to wait any longer to fade the Fins.

Spread to bet now

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)

Based on what we’ve seen of the Dolphins this season, it’s hard to believe that Miami was actually a slight favorite in this one before early action flipped the line. The Dolphins are one of several NFL dumpster fires this season, and one more mail-it-in performance – especially at home – figures to cost Joe Philbin his job.

It’s hard to see how Miami moves the ball in this one against a solid Jets defense that has given up the fewest points in the AFC through three games this season. New York is one bad quarter (21 given up to the Eagles in the second period) away from being 3-0 and the surprise team of the league.

Spread to wait on

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+8.5)

This one could get ugly, and the seven in 10 fans laying money on the Packers in early wagering could push this one up even more. The 49ers defense actually looked decent in winning the opener at home (against Minnesota), but that has been followed by two crushing losses in which San Francisco allowed a total of 90 points (43 to Pittsburgh, 47 to Arizona). The Niners seem incapable of coming even close to stopping any team with a half-decent offense, so it should be interesting what it can do against the Packers.

Total to watch

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (42)

The Cardinals are off and running with dominant wins over the Saints, Bears and 49ers. None of those three figure to sniff of the playoffs this season, but the Cardinals still like the way the offense is humming – even if QB Carson Palmer is a little long in the tooth and may not go the full 16 games.

Granted, the Rams are dead last in the league in offense and have only 16 total points in the last two games. But St. Louis is reportedly planning some new wrinkles on offense to kick-start what has so far been an unimaginative offense, so 42 looks easily attainable in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends to Watch - October


With the MLB playoffs underway, and the NBA set to start at the end of the month, October is a great month for sports fans alike. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during the month of October.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer. Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh is 31-15 ATS as home favorites this month, but its difficult to back them against Baltimore (10/1) and Arizona (10/18) without Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Keep an eye on (Good): Who knows who the quarterback will be for Cleveland by the time Oct.18th rolls around, but we do know the Browns are 19-10 ATS this month at home and they will be underdogs when Denver arrives.

After a poor opening month, San Diego will have three shots to improve 25-16 ATS record in their building against Cleveland (10/4), Pittsburgh (10/12) and Oakland (10/25).

Keep an eye on (Bad): There is seldom much good to say about Jacksonville and this is yet another example. The Jaguars are 14-22 ATS in north Florida and only Houston will visit on the 18th, having sent the other home game to London.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina makes football bettors a lot of money on the road as evidenced by 24-15 ATS mark. In October, they have division game at Tampa Bay (10/4) and long trip to Seattle two weeks later.

Another squad which has been road warriors in the New York football Giants, who are 28-16 ATS and chances are they will not mind trips to Buffalo (10/4) or Philadelphia on the third Monday of the month.

Bad: Arizona has through the years struggled in Eastern Time zones and overall in the second month of the season they are desultory 13-26 ATS. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals can break away from their past at Detroit (10/11) and at Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Even when San Francisco has been a very good team, October roadies always gave them fits and they are 18-35 ATS. Off two wicked September away beatdowns, just one road contest in New Jersey versus the Giants (10/11).

Waiting for Tampa Bay to playing consistently, well, it is like waiting for a blood moon… it just doesn't happen very often. The Buccaneers are 15-27 ATS as visitors and have only one stop, in Washington on the 25th.

FAVORITES

Good: Note - Cleveland is 11-5 ATS, but cannot forecast this role for them.

Keep an eye on (Good): St. Louis has generally improved in the second month of the season, at least against the oddsmakers and is 20-11 ATS in this role. On the last Sunday of the month, the Browns pay a visit to the nearby Arch, with the Rams seeking to improve record. (Note: San Francisco is 39-23, but do not look here as favorites in October)

Bad: This will be a telling month for Cincinnati after hot start. The Bengals will be shorter home favorites versus Kansas City and Seattle to get things going, but are Halloween scary 9-23 ATS handing points. Trick or Treat?

Keep an eye on (Bad): With the almost Super Bowl champions Seattle off to a sluggish start in 2015, they need to win to build quick momentum. Being favored against Detroit (10/5) and Carolina (10/18) at home and a quick trip top Frisco four days later should help, but can you trust a team with 14-26 ATS record in this role?

Tampa Bay's already a favorite this year at home and failed miserably against Tennessee. With Sunshine State partner Jacksonville visiting on the 11th, will the Bucs be better than 15-26 ATS mark?

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sterling 21-8 ATS catching points in Rocktober (think classic rock FM radio), yet as mentioned above, Mike Vick for Big Ben is not a good trade and Pittsburgh will be an underdog in at least three contests.

Keep an eye on (Good): As stated previously, the New York football Giants are excellent on the road, which makes them worth looking at as underdogs as 28-16 ATS.

Bad: The Niners drain bankrolls as dogs at 11-22 ATS and with matchups against the Packers, at Giants, Ravens and Seahawks, backing them might require a visit to ATM.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe Minnesota's improving defense will make them better as pooches at Denver (10/4) and likely Detroit (10/25). The Vikings ship has mostly sunk catching points at 14-26 ATS.

Seattle is 21-32 ATS as underdogs this month and they should catch a small number in Cincy on the 11th.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): At 21-11 ATS, Atlanta pays a visit to the bayou on third Thursday of the month.

Not easy to imagine Chicago makes 21-12 ATS record better in the Motor City on the 18th. Same goes for San Fran when the Seahawks make annual visit on the 22rd. The 49ers are 21-13 ATS.

Pittsburgh has Baltimore on the first day of the month and will need their defense and running game to make 25-14 ATS record better.

Bad: New Orleans has the Dirty Birds in town in the middle of the month and shorter sportsbook figure gives them an opportunity to improve on 12-24 ATS mark.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Possibly Seattle will be such a large division road favorite in the Bay Area, they will not have chance to beat 15-27 ATS record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Oct 04, 2015
Udinese vs. Genoa
draw +215

Bonus Play on the draw between Udinese and Genoa on Sunday. This match takes place in Italy. I hope to seea 0-0 or 1-1 final score.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Redskins (+) over Eagles

The Eagles are flying high after their win over the Jets last week in New York while the Redskins got scalped once again in New York by the Giants. With a 'big storm' headed east for the weekend the field conditions might favor Washington as their slug it out style is more suited for mud. NFL teams that win their first game in week three are 10-18 ATS in week four. Take WASHINGTON!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Here is a stat that will amaze you, Andrew Luck, one of the top QB’s in the NFL the past 2 years, and a big time fantasy pick for many fantasy players teams, has the worst QB rating in the NFL. How is that for some breaking news! Here is some more breaking news, he may in fact not play this weekend as he is banged up, and been very limited in practice all week, and perhaps a game time decision. The reason that is, which should be obvious to anyone who is watching football, the offensive line play of the Colts has been absolutely deplorable since day 1 where the Bills roughed them up in a rout on opening day. The Colts have also not covered a single Las Vegas Line spread this entire season.
Now Jacksonville is no juggernaut by any stretch and they are off an absolute butt kicking at the hands of Tom Brady and New England Patriots, but then again the Pats of one of the AFC’s best if not the best and the Colts who were many peoples pick on the futures market to win the AFC are simply put, a step down in class for the Jags. Imagine if in fact Luck does not play, 41 year old Matt Hasslebeck gets the nod behind that offensive line. The other serious issue for the Colts is their depleted secondary due to injury and rest assured, QB Blake Bortles is not a bottom feeder as a QB, despite being surrounded by limited weapons, but RB Yeldon is solid, and WR Allen Robinson will get plenty of targets throw his way and the defense is looking to atone for a horrific performance against the high octane Pats last week.
The line as of Friday was 9 or more in favor of the Jags, and that is sure to drop come Sunday if in fact Luck is not 100% ready to go and they look to their bench thinking this is a game the Colts can win without him, when in fact this will be a dogfight regardless. Grab the big number as Jacksonville will give them all they want and then some.

Gimmie some Jags +9 all day long

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MICHAEL ALEXANDER
NFL | Oct 04, 2015
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs+4

Five lead changes in 4th quarter of the Bengals' win over the Ravens. Dalton, a solid 3 touchdowns with only 1 interception and now has 8 touchdowns with only that 1 pick no the year. Cincinnati comes into this one in the middle of a Baltimore/Seattle sandwich while the Chiefs have a Bronco/Packer/Bengal triplet, themselves. Kansas City is 12-5 ATS their L17 lined games, while the visitor is a profitable 24-4 in Chiefs' games. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in the 2nd of 2 road games versus non-division opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: N.Y. Jets at Miami

When: 9:30 AM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Wembley Stadium, London

Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin refuses to break stride even as his team is struggling to regain its footing following two straight losses. Philbin and the Dolphins look to get back on track when they travel to London's Wembley Stadium to "host" the AFC East rival New York Jets on Sunday morning.

"This is not a time to panic," Philbin told reporters earlier this week on the heels of a lopsided 41-14 loss to Buffalo. "We're not getting 53 new players. We're not getting 24 new coaches. We're either going to find solutions to these problems or not, and we're going to stick together or not." Ryan Tannehill tossed three interceptions in the setback to the Bills, matching the three picks that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw in New York's 24-17 loss to Philadelphia last week. Former Dolphin Brandon Marshall reeled in 10 receptions for 109 yards and found the end zone for the third straight week, but his egregious lateral led to a fumble that sent the Jets into a tailspin.

TV: 9:30 a.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets -2. O/U: 41.5

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1): Running back Chris Ivory (quadriceps) hopes to get his uniform dirty on Sunday after being a spectator last week versus the Eagles. New York's ground game suffered as a result with just 33 yards on 10 carries, a far cry from the 91 yards on 20 rushes that Ivory accumulated in a 31-10 victory over Cleveland on Sept. 13. Ivory, however, was held in check in both meetings with Miami last season - totaling just 91 yards on 29 carries.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2): While Tannehill has struggled to pay consistent dividends after signing a $96 million contract in the summer, wideouts Jarvis Landry (24 receptions, 230 yards) and Rishard Matthews (16 catches, 262 yards and three TDs) have proven to be reliable targets. Lamar Miller (30 carries, 105 yards) has failed to get out of the blocks this season after rushing for a career-high 1,099 yards in 2014, with a personal-best 178 yards and a touchdown coming in a 37-24 setback to the Jets to conclude the campaign. The Dolphins have rushed for an NFL fifth-worst 218 yards on the ground and will face a Jets' defense that has allowed a league-low 41 points this season.

EXTRA POINTS

1. While playing for Chicago, Marshall had six receptions for just 48 yards in his last meeting with Miami on Oct. 19.

2. Dolphins rookie DT Jordan Phillips has the team's lone sack this season, and he was inactive last week versus Buffalo.

3. Jets WR Eric Decker, who is questionable to miss his second straight game with a sprained knee, reeled in 10 receptions for a career-high 221 yards in his last meeting with Miami.

PREDICTION: Jets 20, Dolphins 16

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jacksonville at Indianapolis

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts needed a dramatic comeback a week ago to avoid an 0-3 start but they still find themselves in a four-way tie atop the AFC South as they prepare to host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Colts have dominated the series against Jacksonville, winning five consecutive meetings by an average margin of 23.6 points.

While Luck is off to a shaky start, concerns were heightened in Indianapolis when the fourth-year quarterback did not throw for the second straight practice session on Thursday due to a sore shoulder. Luck was listed as limited, leaving 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck in line to start if the former No. 1 overall pick is unable to play Sunday. Jacksonville upset the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 but came crashing back to Earth in last week's 51-17 setback at the New England Patriots. The Jaguars set two dubious franchise records, surrendering their highest point total and failing to force an opponent to punt for the first time.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Colts -9. O/U: 48

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-2): Second-year quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown for 698 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions, but he also is completing only 53.8 percent of his passes. Allen Robinson is his top target, averaging 22.7 yards per catch, but Jacksonville will be hoping for better production from rookie running back T.J. Yeldon, who is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone. The Jaguars have been fairly stout against the run but are giving up an average of 282.7 yards through the air and have registered only six sacks.

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-2): Luck has struggled out of the gate, completing only 56 percent of his passes while throwing at least two interceptions in each game - and seven total - while failing to surpass 260 yards in the air. Wideout Donte Moncrief leads the team in receptions (17) and touchdowns while Andre Johnson has only seven catches and was blanked last week. Running back Frank Gore finally came alive last week with 86 yards and two TDs, but Indy's defense is surrendering 26.7 points per game and is even worse at pressure the passer than Jacksonville, collecting only four sacks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Luck has thrown for 1,702 yards with 10 touchdowns versus three picks in six meetings versus Jacksonville.

2. Jaguars LB Paul Posluszny already has 34 tackles after making 14 last week.

3. Johnson needs six catches to move past Isaac Bruce (1,024) for eighth on the all-time list.

PREDICTION: Colts 27, Jaguars 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: N.Y. Giants at Buffalo

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Rex Ryan may not like it but expect a shootout when the Buffalo Bills host the New York Giants on Sunday. Ryan's Bills are the third-highest scoring team in the league and both teams' secondaries have been picked apart to start the season, ranking at the very bottom of the NFL in passing defense.

Paced by first-year starter Tyrod Taylor, the Bills are averaging 33.3 points a game but expect to be without running back LeSean McCoy, who is still bothered by a hamstring injury. The Giants are also missing one of their stars as wide receiver Victor Cruz had hoped to make his season debut this week, but he aggravated a calf injury at practice and was ruled out. Even without the duo, both teams have scored in bunches this season. The Bills bounced back from their loss to New England with a blowout win at Miami last week while the Giants notched their first win of the season against the Redskins.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Bills -5.5. O/U: 45.5.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-2): The Giants had hoped that Cruz would ratchet up a potentially impressive passing attack led by Odell Beckham Jr., who has caught 14 scoring passes in 15 career games. While clock management has been a problem, Eli Manning has thrown four touchdown passes without an interception and is a proven winner, beginning just one season with a 1-3 record or worse since entering the league 12 years ago. The Giants have won their past two trips to Buffalo but need to improve their ground game, which has not had a 100-yard rusher this season.

ABOUT THE BILLS (2-1): McCoy is doubtful and wide receiver Sammy Watkins is also questionable with a calf injury, but thus far Buffalo's offense has not missed a beat. Taylor has seven passing touchdowns in his first three games and Karlos Williams became the first player to score a touchdown in each of his first three games since Percy Harvin did so in 2009. Williams rushed for 110 yards last week and, even though McCoy has been injured, the Bills are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Giants rookie OT Ereck Flowers practiced on Thursday and is expected to play.

2. Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a concussion.

3. The game could be impacted by the path of Hurricane Joaquin, which could bring soaking rains to the area.

PREDICTION: Giants 24, Bills 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Carolina at Tampa Bay

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South without even posting a .500 record last season but are looking like a team that can make it well past eight wins in 2015. Cam Newton and the Panthers will try to make it four in a row to start the season when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Newton is drawing some early praise thanks to his seven total touchdowns during the team’s 3-0 start, and the former No. 1 overall pick is growing more comfortable every week. “Cam is one of those guys we truly believe in him,” Carolina coach Ron Rivera told reporters. “We believe he is the face of the franchise, that’s why we made the (long-term) commitment we did going into training camp with him.” The Buccaneers have their own No. 1 pick at quarterback in rookie Jameis Winston, a Florida State product who is enduring the ups and downs of his first year in the NFL while looking up to Newton. “(Newton’s) just a great person for me to look up and kind of model my style off of what he's been through,” Winston told reporters. “Basically, we've been through the same things, from (winning) the Heisman, then going to the league.”

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -3. O/U: 39.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-0): Charlotte made a move to replace defensive end Charles Johnson, who was placed on the injured reserve/designated to return list with a hamstring injury, by acquiring veteran Jared Allen from Chicago. Allen had been trying to transition to a standup end in a 3-4 defensive front in Chicago but is going back to his more familiar position of right end in a 4-3 alignment. “I understand the game with my hand on the ground,” Allen told reporters. “I feel like I can play faster, stronger, better leverage, better technique. This is where my heart and my home is, in a 4-3 defense.”

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (1-2): Winston sandwiched one solid performance in a Week 2 win at New Orleans between a pair of tough outings, and is trying to bounce back from a 17-of-36 passing performance in a 19-9 loss to Houston last week. Some of Winston’s struggles against the Texans stemmed from his tendency to lock in on receiver Mike Evans, who was targeted 17 times and hauled in only seven passes. “This team needs better from me, and I will get better,” Evans told reporters. “But it's in the past; the game's behind us… I'll work hard in practice this week and hopefully I'll make those plays come Sunday.”

EXTRA POINTS

1. Panthers LB Luke Kuechly (head) is still in the league’s concussion protocol and could miss his third straight game.

2. Tampa Bay K Kyle Brindza, who missed an extra-point attempt and three field-goal tries last week, will remain the starter.

3. Carolina has claimed the last four meetings in the series.

PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Philadelphia at Washington

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland

After a dismal performance against Dallas that dropped them to 0-2, the Philadelphia Eagles began feeling better about themselves by posting a 24-17 road victory over the New York Jets. They can continue to boost their confidence on Sunday, when they visit the NFC East-rival Washington Redskins.

Philadelphia bounced back from its clunker at home versus the hated Cowboys with a solid defensive effort, limiting New York to just 47 rushing yards while intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick three times. New York's inability to run against the Eagles does not bode well for Washington, which gained only 88 rushing yards in its 32-21 home loss to the New York Giants in Week 3. The Redskins may have to rely on the arm of Kirk Cousins, who will make another start despite throwing four interceptions in the first three games. Cousins is unlikely to get much help in the form of former Eagle DeSean Jackson, who has missed two contests with a hamstring injury and is day-to-day.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Eagles -3. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-2): While Sam Bradford has been less than impressive, Philadelphia is getting a big contribution from Darren Sproles thus far. The veteran running back was named the NFL's Special Teams Player of the Week after returning a punt 89 yards for a touchdown and rushing for another score against the Jets. Sproles joined Ockie Anderson, Curly Oden and Gale Sayers as the only players in NFL history to record both a punt-return and rushing touchdown in multiple games.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-2): Alfred Morris' time as Washington's top running back may be over. The veteran gained 121 yards in the season opener but had just six carries for 19 yards against the Giants as Matt Jones rushed 11 times for 38 yards. It wasn't an impressive performance by Jones, but he was nominated for the NFC Rookie of the Month Award as he has produced 189 yards and two touchdowns over his first three games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Eagles have made a league-low two plays of 25 or more yards while the Redskins have produced four passing plays of similar yardage.

2. The home team has won the last three matchups in the series, with each of the last two decided by three points.

3. Philadelphia RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring) participated in Thursday's full practice but remains questionable to play against Washington.

PREDICTION: Eagles 24, Redskins 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oakland at Chicago

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

After ending a lengthy road losing streak last week at Cleveland, the Oakland Raiders attempt to make it two in a row when they visit the floundering Chicago Bears on Sunday. Oakland ended its 11-game slide on the road with a 27-20 triumph over the Browns, putting it one victory away from its first three-game winning streak since 2011.

The Raiders have a golden opportunity to match last season's overall win total and stay above .500 after four games for the first time since going 4-0 in 2002 when they invade the Windy City to take on the winless Bears. Chicago fell to 0-3 with last week's 26-0 setback at Seattle and began a fire sale soon after. Defensive end Jared Allen was traded to Carolina and linebacker Jonathan Bostic to New England, with the Bears receiving a pair of draft picks in return. Jay Cutler was limited in practice Thursday and is questionable to face Oakland, which hopes to make Jimmy Clausen 1-12 lifetime as a starter should it line up against him instead.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Raiders -3. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-1): While optimistic about its start, Oakland cannot be too pleased with its defense thus far. The Raiders surrendered fewer than 33 points for the first time this season last week but rank last in the league with an average of 414.7 yards allowed. Future Hall-of-Fame defensive back Charles Woodson made his 61st career interception in the final minute against Cleveland, putting him one away from tying Dick LeBeau and Dave Brown for ninth place on the all-time list.

ABOUT THE BEARS (0-3): Clausen was ineffective - to say the least - last week, going 9-of-17 for 63 yards as Chicago gained only 146 total yards en route to being shut out for the first time since 2002. The Bears, who are in danger of starting 0-4 for the first time since 2000, also are struggling defensively as they've yielded a league-high 35 points per game. Matt Forte has been held in check, gaining a total of 135 yards on the ground over his last two contests after rushing for 141 in the season opener.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Bears have allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown in each of their last two games.

2. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski will tie Tim Brown's team record when he appears in his 240th contest on Sunday.

3. The teams are meeting for the first time since Nov. 27, 2011, when Oakland posted a 25-20 victory at home.

PREDICTION: Raiders 27, Bears 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Houston at Atlanta

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 4, 2015
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia


The Atlanta Falcons look for their second 4-0 start in four years when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday. The Falcons could stand to win with a bit more ease, though, after becoming the first team in NFL history to capture their first three games after trailing in the fourth quarter of each.



The Texans haven’t had as much luck in close games, losing their first two contests by seven points apiece before closing out a 19-9 win over Tampa Bay last week. Atlanta’s hot start has been built on the strength of its high-powered passing game led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but the Texans have been tough against the pass. Houston has limited opponents to 53.8 percent passing, the lowest mark in the NFL. The Texans’ offense had a tough time cashing in against the Buccaneers despite recording a season-high 413 total yards, and running back Arian Foster (groin) is close to making his season debut.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Falcons -6.5. O/U: 46.5



ABOUT THE TEXANS (1-2): Houston has attempted a league-high 144 passes, with Ryan Mallett igniting the passing game since taking over in the fourth quarter of the season opener. Mallett and DeAndre Hopkins (22 catches, 252 yards, three touchdowns) have developed a solid rapport, and Alfred Blue sparked the offense with 139 rushing yards last week. The Texans need defensive end J.J. Watt to lead the pass rush against Ryan after being held without a sack last week for the first time in eight games.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (3-0): Ryan leads the NFC with 946 passing yards along with five touchdowns, and Jones has been his primary target. The fifth-year wideout is putting up record numbers with 34 receptions – the most in NFL history through three games – and at least 135 receiving yards in each contest, and the Falcons got the ground game going in last week’s 39-28 win at Dallas as DeVonta Freeman racked up a career-high 141 yards and three touchdowns. The defense has been susceptible, especially against the pass, but it has forced four turnovers to help mitigate the damage.



EXTRA POINTS

1. Ryan is 40-15 at home in his career with a 97.1 rating.

2. Houston signed Nick Novak after releasing fellow K Randy Bullock, who missed two extra points and a field goal in the first three games.

3. The Falcons have converted 53.3 percent of their third downs - the second-highest rate in the league - while the Texans rank second in third-down defense, holding opponents to a 21.1 percent conversion rate.



PREDICTION: Falcons 24, Texans 19