Sunday 10/23/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bills (4-2) at Dolphins (2-4)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Buffalo Bills have been the most dominant team in the AFC during the past month, winning four games in a row by an average of more than 17 points.

Buffalo has also beaten AFC East rival Miami in five of the last six meetings (four in blowout fashion), and coach Rex Ryan has won his last four trips to Miami, dating to his time with the New York Jets.

The Dolphins (2-4) will try to reverse those trends when they host the Bills (4-2) on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Bills are on a four-game winning streak for the first time since the start of the 2008 season and have not won five in a row since 2004.

"We know that we have a job to do in front of us this week, and those four games that we won in a row mean nothing," Ryan said. "We have to win this one. We're trying to win one game in a row this week, and that's kind of our approach to it."

Buffalo has taken a winning record into a game at Miami four times since 2000 and lost all four of those games.

Miami is 8-17 in division games since 2011, including a 31-24 loss in New England earlier this season. The Bills are the only team to defeat the Patriots this season, 16-0 in Foxboro, Mass.

The Dolphins are trending up after opening a four-game homestand last week with a 30-15 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

AFC Offensive Player of the Week Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards, the most by any player in the NFL this season. Ryan Tannehill did not turn the ball over and was not sacked for the first time this season, and the defense produced two sacks and two takeaways while holding the Steelers to 297 yards.

But Miami coach Adam Gase cautioned against using past results to predict future performance.

"Every week is so different, and you never know what team is going to come out on top every week," Gase said. "It doesn't matter where you are ranked in the power rankings. Nobody cares on Sunday. It's about guys going out there and doing their job and being ready for that game."

Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing for the second straight season, averaging 166.3 yards per game, and 211.8 yards in the four weeks since Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman and elevated running backs coach Anthony Lynn. The Bills' 312 rushing yards in last week's 45-16 win over the San Francisco 49ers was their highest output since 1992 and the most by any team in the past two seasons.

Stopping the Bills' ground game figures to be a daunting task for the Dolphins' 31st-ranked run defense.

"It's a daunting task to play football in the NFL," Dolphins defensive end Cameron Wake said. "No matter which team you're playing, which week you're playing, you're going to be playing against the best of the best, the best to do it ever, the best in the world, so on and so on and so on.

"We did it last week and we're going to do it next week and the week after. That's just what happens when you play in this league."

The Bills, however, have some uncertainty in the backfield after Pro Bowl running back LeSean McCoy was unable to finish Wednesday's practice because of a tight hamstring. McCoy ranks second in the NFL in rushing with 597 yards and first in yards per carry (5.6) among running backs with at least 50 carries.

McCoy's backup, Mike Gillislee, is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and Tyrod Taylor is averaging 6.8 (fifth among quarterbacks). But as center Eric Wood noted, McCoy is "one of the best players in the league and we're a lot better with him than we are without him."

Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is dealing with a hamstring injury and questionable to make his season debut Sunday.

"I'm leaving it up to the trainers," Dareus said. "We're taking things slow, but at the same time, we're making sure we don't fall backwards."

Robert Woods, the Bills' top receiver with Sammy Watkins on injured reserve for at least another month, has been wearing a walking boot on his left foot this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (4-2)

Date: October 23, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- One thing you can always count on in sports is that the New England Patriots will never say anything bad about an upcoming opponent.

Even when someone like Ben Roethlisberger isn't going to play.

"It's tough to see any injury for any player, and he's obviously dealing with a significant one, but I'm sure they'll still be ready to go," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said Wednesday, looking ahead to New England's visit to Pittsburgh to meet the Roethlisberger-less Steelers on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

"They've got a lot of good players, especially on defense," Brady said. "It's a very veteran group, and they play well at home. They lost two games on the road, but we're not playing them on the road. We're playing them at home where they've won them all, so it's going to be a big challenge for us."

Roethlisberger, injured Sunday during a loss to the Miami Dolphins, underwent left knee surgery and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Landry Jones, who has been no more than so-so during his chances the past two years, is the quarterback as the 4-2 Steelers look to down the 5-1 Patriots.

"He's obviously a good quarterback," running back Le'Veon Bell said on a conference call Wednesday. "I think he has a lot of good things that he can bring to the table. We've just got to, as a whole entire offense, help him out and get him comfortable and get him confident in himself, and that's when he really will start striking."

Bell, of course, and wide receiver Antonio Brown still have to be dealt with, but not having Roethlisberger with those guys has to make a difference.

Asked about Bell, Patriots coach Bill Belichick said, "Oh my God. Oh yeah, tremendous player. Great hands, catch the ball, very quick, makes people miss. Strong, breaks tackles, excellent balance, tough, doesn't run out of bounds, fights for extra yardage. Great player."

Brady returned from his four-game Deflategate suspension two games ago and came out on fire. With Rob Gronkowski recovered from his hamstring injury, Brady is 57 of 75 for 782 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Brady is 6-2 lifetime against the Steelers with 22 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. His two pick-free games this year extended the team's run of no interceptions through the first six games.

The scary thing about Brady's numbers is that he thinks he can even be better, that he has yet to work out all the kinks from the suspension.

"No ... I'm not going to dispute his assessment of his game," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "Obviously, from my perspective, he's Tom Brady. He's got six touchdowns, no interceptions and completing 76 percent of his balls, so from my perspective, we face a stiff challenge. But I'm not going to question his perspective regarding his game."

Last Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, Patriots linebacker Dont'a Hightower dominated the game on that side of the ball, tackling Andy Dalton in the end zone for a safety to start the New England charge, then adding another half-sack later in the second half. He finished with 13 tackles and was named AFC defensive player of the week.

The Steelers, who are 3-0 at home, wasted no time in declaring Roethlisberger out of this game, with Tomlin perhaps even sending a mild shot at other coaches (Belichick) when it comes to injury reports.

"We're a transparent group. We don't hide. We are who we are," he said. "He had a surgical procedure to address his knee issue, so to eliminate any potential questions or distractions regarding his availability and get firmly focused on the task at hand with the man playing quarterback that's playing quarterback this week, that's the approach."

Jones, who has thrown only one pass this season, was 16 of 29 for 209 yards with one touchdown pass and two interceptions in a loss at Kansas City last season. He had three TD passes and four picks in 2015.

Sunday also will be the first game for Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount against the team that released him in 2014 -- after he walked off the bench during a game. Blount has been outstanding so far this season, scoring six touchdowns in six games.

"We're still very tight," Bell said of Blount. "Me and him still talk a lot to this day. Obviously, he's doing great things on the field. I watch his games, he watches my games, we still critique each other and talk about some of the things we did good, some of the things we did bad with one another."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buccaneers (2-3) at 49ers (1-5)

Date: October 23, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers both will be missing their top running backs when they face off in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX), but that might not matter much considering how poorly both teams are playing against the run.

The 49ers, fresh off yielding 312 rushing yards in a blowout loss at Buffalo, are giving up a league-worst 174.3 yards per game on the ground, and the Buccaneers are surrendering 103.8.

So, even with Tampa Bay still missing Doug Martin (hamstring) and San Francisco going without Carlos Hyde (ankle), both offenses have a chance to move the ball on the ground Sunday.

Without three top defensive linemen, the Bucs (2-3) gave up 136 yards and two touchdowns to Carolina's backup running backs last week. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who missed the 17-14 win over the Panthers due to a calf strain, returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis and could be available. However, defensive end Robert Ayers (high ankle sprain) and tackle Clinton McDonald (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and appear unlikely for Sunday.

That could open the door for a big game by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers on the ground. In his first start of the season last week, a 45-16 loss at Buffalo, Kaepernick led the 49ers (1-5) with 66 rushing yards on eight attempts.

The 49ers will hope for more out of Mike Davis (13 yards on five runs) and Shaun Draughn (one carry for two yards) as well. Davis was stopped on a key fourth-and-1 play after Hyde was sidelined.

Draughn has done this before: He rushed for more than 50 yards three times and scored one touchdown after replacing an injured Hyde as the starter in Week 8 last season.

"You'll see both those guys," San Francisco coach Chip Kelly said, adding the 49ers will rotate all of their backs if Hyde can't play.

The Bucs are in the same spot. With Martin experiencing a setback in his recovery from a hamstring strain, Jacquizz Rodgers will get the call again. The 5-foot-6 tailback is coming off a 101-yard game in Tampa Bay's win over Carolina.

Kelly is very familiar with Rodgers, a former Oregon State star who played against Kelly's Oregon team in the Pac-12.

"Yeah, he was just an unbelievable player in college and very, very difficult to defend," Kelly said. "I think he doesn't get enough credit for how physical he is just because he's not the biggest back in the world, so you automatically think that he's a nifty, nimble, make-you-miss type of guy. He can do that, but he's also a very physical runner, very sturdy, has great balance, great vision.

"He's a handful, and we have to be very aware of him in their run game because really the run game sets up everything else up for them."

Rodgers won't be the only skill player filling a void for the Bucs, who this week placed top receiver Vincent Jackson on injured reserve with an ACL injury. Donteea Dye and Adam Humphries will be counted on to make up for Jackson's absence -- filling in behind Mike Evans, who caught six passes for 89 yards and a score against the Panthers.

"Every time with these injuries, guys just keep stepping up," Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston said. "We really depend on these guys, and we lean on them.

"Obviously, Donteea is going to have to step up. This is the moment he's been waiting for. He had a couple of big catches in the game when Vincent got hurt (in 2015), so we trust those guys and we're depending on them. And they know that."

Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said, "Any time you lose a player and team leader of Vincent's caliber, it is a setback for your team. Vincent is a very tough-minded player and a great competitor. Even though he doesn't recall when he injured his knee, he was still out there the entire game and made two crucial catches on our final drive to set up the game-winning field goal.

"I know that being placed on injured reserve is difficult for him, but I also know he will maintain a strong presence in our locker room and will help our younger guys prepare and develop because that's the type of team-first leader he is."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Seahawks (4-1) at Cardinals (3-3)

Date: October 23, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Coach Bruce Arians is the first to admit his Arizona Cardinals did not play well during the first quarter of the season, digging an early hole during a 1-3 start in September.

However, after consecutive victories by a combined score of 61-24, the defending NFC West champion Arizona Cardinals (3-3) have a chance to close to within a half-game of the division lead when the Seattle Seahawks (4-1) visit University of Phoenix Stadium for Sunday night's prime-time tilt at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

"We've been playing better. Each season is a new year," Arians said. "We did not play well in September, surprising to me, but we did play very well the last two weeks, and hopefully we can continue that."

Granted, beating up on the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets, who are a combined 2-10, is a different animal than facing Seattle. The Seahawks are coming off a hard-fought win over the Atlanta Falcons, their first victory over a team with a winning record this season. It is fair to say this is a strong litmus test for teams that have combined to win 10 of the past 12 NFC West titles.

The Cardinals have won four of the past five meetings, but the Seahawks have a three-game winning streak at University of Phoenix Stadium, including a 36-6 victory in Week 17 last season after Arizona already clinched the division and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

"12s show up," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said of the team's fan base. "I was asked that by their press, too, they're aware of it as well. I guess our people like to get out of the Northwest and get down there, get to Arizona. I don't know. We have had great crowds down there, and they've been really good to us."

On the field, the Cardinals boast a dynamic weapon in running back David Johnson, who enters Sunday with 568 rushing yards (third in the NFL) and eight touchdowns on the ground to go with 20 catches for 265 yards through the air. Seattle counters with the league's third-ranked run defense and the top unit in yards allowed per game (283.6).

Arizona is still looking to get its passing game untracked, with Arians acknowledging too many potential big plays failed to be executed through six weeks. The Seahawks are fifth in fewest passing yards allowed, but they did get beat for a pair of late big plays to fall behind against Atlanta last week. One miscommunication resulted in Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman yelling at defensive coordinator Kris Richard and inactive strong safety Kam Chancellor on the sideline.

"I mean it's another week, it's another opponent, everything starts over," said Sherman. "We're frustrated, if they're going to score, it's going to be a very difficult score. It's going to be something that was just a dog fight. We hate to give up easy ones."

Sherman may not shadow a receiver with the Cardinals sporting several playmakers. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer, with some of his receivers matched up against Seahawks cornerbacks DeShawn Shead and Jeremy Lane, will have a prime opportunity to regain his form. He enters with seven touchdowns against five interceptions and an 84.1 passer rating.

"It's been not as easy as in the past. We've missed some, they're there, we just haven't hit them," Arians said of the Cardinals' passing game. "We'll get our opportunities, and we just have to keep throwing at them."

Arians knows his team will be equally challenged on the other side of the ball. Arizona sports the league's No. 5 defense entering Sunday, but last year, it did not successfully handle the Seahawks' transformation to a more wide-open attack based on the throwing of quarterback Russell Wilson.

Wilson completed 19 of 28 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 last season, and he enters Sunday with a streak of 158 consecutive passes without an interception. In fact, he has thrown only two in 12 games dating back to Week 10 of last season.

He compiled those figures despite playing on right ankle and left knee sprains that clearly limited his mobility. Arizona has 19 sacks on the season and is facing a reworked Seattle offensive line that continues to experience growing pains, but Arians said the 5-foot-11 Wilson has developed into far more than a scrambling quarterback who hurts defenses on the run and on busted plays.

"Years ago everybody said, 'Make him stay in the pocket,'" Arians said. "Now you rush him and hope you can contain him because he's lighting everybody up from the pocket."

More to the point, Wilson is steadily getting closer to full health.

"We're just continuing to count on him to get out there and do his thing," Carroll said. "He feels better again, he's markedly improved than he has been the last couple weeks. Let's see how that goes.

"We're going to keep running the stuff and count on him to read the things out and do all that he knows how to do. We're not restricting him at all."

Arizona travels for a rematch against struggling defending NFC champion Carolina next week before hitting its bye week, while Seattle travels to New Orleans before returning home for a Monday night tilt against resurgent Buffalo and a trip to New England before playing host to Philadelphia. So the outcome of Sunday's game could have a significant impact on what will be at stake when the Cardinals pay a visit to Seattle on Christmas Eve in Week 16.

While Carroll harped on the importance of his "12s," Arians had a bit of a different take on why the home-field advantage might not be as significant as many assume. In his view, the crowd noise impacts his defense just as much in trying to contain Wilson & Co.

"I think one of the big things is the home-team defense is really hard to communicate," Arians said. "I think it's one of the reasons we play so well (in Seattle, where Arizona has won two of the past three years), that the defense has a tough time communicating because the crowd noise and the fans are into it. We've had some lack of communication at times."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Chargers (2-4) at Falcons (4-2)

Date: October 23, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

Earlier this month, the Atlanta Falcons battled last season's Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks and emerged with two victories.

The San Diego Chargers haven't recorded consecutive victories -- against anyone -- since 2014.

That illustrates the gulf between the teams as the Chargers (2-4) head to Atlanta to face the Falcons (4-2) on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX).

Atlanta was unable to make it a trio of impressive wins when it stumbled late in a 26-24 loss at Seattle on Sunday. However, the home victory over the Carolina Panthers and the road win over the Denver Broncos stamped the Falcons as legitimate NFC contenders.

The team is receiving contributions from all over the field.

"We have had some games where different groups came through," Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. "Two weeks ago certainly the defensive line had a big day. Two weeks before that, the quarterback and receivers had one. We have had games where the special teams have been involved."

The Chargers, meanwhile, got a needed victory last Thursday, beating the Broncos 21-13 and taking some of the heat off embattled coach Mike McCoy.

"You know how I feel about momentum, week to week," San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers said. "But we are now like, 'Guys, that's how you beat a good team. That's what it feels like.'"

Now the Chargers are charged with repeating the feat against Atlanta so they can post their first winning streak since November 2014. San Diego also owns just one win in its past 12 road games.

"Atlanta is a team that is as hot as any," Rivers said. "That will be a big one."

Rivers, who threw for a season-low 178 yards against the Broncos, undoubtedly will need to improve upon that figure if the Chargers are to have a chance against the Falcons. San Diego ranks 12th in the league in passing yards per game (263.3) but just 22nd in rushing yards per game (91.8).

The Falcons' rush defense is stingy, ranking 11th at 94.2 yards per game, but opposing quarterbacks are finding success. Atlanta is tied for 26th in pass defense, yielding 285.3 yards per game.

The Chargers' leading receiver, Travis Benjamin, didn't practice Wednesday due to a knee ailment. Even if he is absent Sunday, however, Rivers is well-stocked in terms of receiving weapons, thanks in part to an impressive pair of tight ends.

Hunter Henry is the first rookie tight end to score touchdowns in three consecutive weeks since Jimmy Graham accomplished the feat in 2010. Henry is benefitting from the guidance of veteran tight end Antonio Gates.

"It's awesome to have that kind of guy on your side," said Henry, an Arkansas product who has 19 catches for 310 yards. "He's arguably the best ever playing this position so being among his presence is an honor. And I'm happy to call him a good friend."

The young Atlanta defense, which includes six players in their first or second year, expects to improve as the season continues.

"We have to keep working, we have to keep pushing because you saw in the second half (against Seattle), we came out fighting," Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen said. "We came out working. ...

"With (good teams), you have to be really detailed and you can't give them anything extra. Once they catch the ball, you have to get them down right then. Once you see the quarterback scramble, you have to get on your guys."

The Falcons' offensive attack is both balanced and dangerous. Behind quarterback Matt Ryan, Atlanta ranks second in passing yards per game (329.5), while the rushing attack is ninth at 112 yards per game.

Wide receiver Julio Jones leads the league with 656 receiving yards on 31 catches.

"Any time you go against a player like Julio you have to know where he is every snap," McCoy said. "That is the type of player he is."

San Diego is strong against the run (83.5 yards per game, fifth in the league) but susceptible against the pass (279.7 yards per game, 24th in the NFL).

The Chargers maintain that their attitude is on the rise after they held off Denver to end their three-game losing streak.

"It's just a new start," San Diego nose tackle Brandon Mebane said. "The season hasn't gone how we want it to, but this is a new start."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 7 NFL

Giants (3-3) vs Rams (3-3) (London)— Injuries to Rams’ DB’s (especially Johnson), leave them vulnerable here against WR Beckham, who caught 8 balls for 222 yards, two TDs in comeback win over Ravens last week. Detroit averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempt, scored four TDs on seven drives vs Rams LW. Keenum was 27-32/321 in Detroit, but on last two drives, was 1-4 with an INT that ended game, much like Buffalo game when he threw pick-6 in tie game late in third quarter. Gurley carried 14 times for 58 yards, but had 14 on first carry of game- they have to get him more involved. Giants won last six games against the Rams, five by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2001. NFC West teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 10-4.

Vikings (5-0) @ Eagles (3-2)— Sam Bradford returns to Philly here; Eagles traded him*this summer*after Bridgewater’s knee injury in August. Minnesota is on 18-2 spread run, 5-0 this year, but they’re 1-5 in last six post-bye games. Vikings won 25-16/22-10 in road games this year; they’re 3-1 as road favorites under Zimmer. Eagles lost post-bye games to Lions/Redskins after 3-0 start; they’re 2-0 at home this year, beating Browns/Steelers by 14-31 points. Philly is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. Vikings’ 24-14 win here in 2010 (their last visit) snapped a 6-game skid in Philly. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-6 vs spread; NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-2. How often does a team face a QB who was in their training camp all summer?

Saints (2-3) @ Chiefs (3-2)— New Orleans won its last two games but allowed 72 points in doing so; Chiefs are 3-0 this season scoring 24+ points. Four of five Saint games this year were decided by 3 or less points; they’re 7-3-1 in last 11 games as road underdog, 2-0 this season. Since 2008, KC is 14-24 as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Seven of Chiefs’ 10 TDs this year came on drives of 62 or less yards- they’ve got only two TD drives of 75+ yards, and 25 is usual starting point for most drives, with new kickoff rules. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Saints won three of last four visits here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-1 vs spread this season; AFC West teams are 9-6 outside the division. Reid is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games, but is 5-10 vs spread in second week off those byes.

Redskins (4-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Washington won its last four games, Detroit its last two; Lions’ three home games were decided by total of five points. Redskins are 2-0 on road this year, with SU wins at Giants (29-27, +4), Ravens (16-10, +4). Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in Detroit games this year; Lions are 8-4-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-2 this year. Detroit won last three series games; Redskins lost 19-14/37-25 in last two visits here. Washington is 7-8 under Gruden in games with spread of 3 or less points (1-2 this year); favorites are 13-5-2 in Lions’ last 20 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC East road teams are 4-2 outside the division. Over is 5-1 in Washington games 4-2 in Detroit games this year.

Browns (0-6) @ Bengals (2-4)— Cincy lost four of last five games, giving up 63 points in last two games, losses at Dallas (28-14), Foxboro (35-17), but those are two of best teams in NFL so far. Bengals are 0-4 if they allow more than six yards/pass attempt, 2-0 if they allow less. Browns have been over 6.0 in spa in four of last five games. Cincy is 11-4 in last 15 games in this in-state rivalry; they outscored Cleveland 68-13 in two meetings LY, outscoring them 34-0 in second half. Browns lost six of last seven visits here. 0-6 Cleveland is 2-2 as a road dog, losing on foreign soil by 19-6-11-2 points- this is their fifth road game in seven weeks- they’re 10-8-1 in last 19 games as a road dog. Bengals are 13-7-1 in their last 21 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season.

Bills (4-2) @ Dolphins (2-4)— Buffalo is 4-0 since switching OCs and running ball more; they ran for 312 yards in win over 49ers LW, are averaging 211.8 RY/game since the change in OC. Bills are 7-5-1 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year- they outscored last three foes 45-9 in second half. Dolphins ran ball for 222 yards LW, after averaging 72.4 in first five games; since 2012, they’re 8-4-1 as home dogs. Bills won five of last six games with Miami, with four of five wins by 16+ points- they ran ball for 417 yards in 41-14/33-17 wins over Dolphins LY. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread in divisional games. Miami is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points (0-0 this year); Buffalo is 15-12-1 in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.

Raiders (4-2) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Jax came back from dead in Chicago LW; they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter, rallied for 17-16 win, their second win in row after an 0-3 start. Jaguars are 0-2 at home this year, with two losses by total of six points; they’re 6-10 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as a home favorite, but that goes back six years. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Oakland’s first six games; they’re 3-0 SU on road, all as an underdog- they’re 8-1 as road underdogs under Del Rio. Raiders are 4-6 under Del Rio in games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last four series games; Raiders lost 49-11/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC South teams are 9-8 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 9-6.

Colts (2-4) @ Titans (3-3)— Indy led 23-9 with 4:00 left at Houston LW, lost in OT, tough game to bounce back from; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 34-20 (+6) at Denver, 26-23 in OT at Houston (+3). Colts are 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog; they won last nine games with Tennessee, winning last four visits here, by 6-3-17-2 points- six of last eight series games were won by 8 or less points. Titans ran ball for 372 yards in winning last two games to even its record; Tennessee is 1-2 SU at home, with only win over 0-6 Browns- they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Tennessee is 5-14-3 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points. Indy is 10-11 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-11 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Ravens (3-3) @ Jets (1-5)— Ravens lost last three games after an 0-3 start; all six of their games were decided by six or less points. Baltimore is in Swamp Stadium for second week in row after losing to Giants 27-23 in last 2:00 LW- they had scored with 2:04 left to take lead. Jets were inept Monday night; Fitzpatrick has now thrown 10 INTs, no TDs in second half of games this year- will they switch to Smith at QB? Home crowd won’t be much help for Jets unless they get off to fast start. Baltimore won last eight series games, winning last three here by 1-3-14 points- last visit against Jets here was in 2010. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-8 vs spread. AFC East home teams are 6-3. Jets have been outscored 51-7 in second half of their last four games.

Buccaneers (2-3) @ 49ers (1-5)— Tampa Bay averaged just 86.6 rushing yards/game in their 2-3 start, but both wins came on road, in Atlanta/Carolina. Bucs are road favorite for first time since 2013; since ’07 they’re 3-5-1 as road faves. Tampa is 3-8 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points. 49ers lost last five games, giving up 312 rushing yards in 45-16 loss at Buffalo LW. Niners are 13-8-3 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less- they’re 17-5 in series, winning four of last five. Buccaneers are 2-12 here, losing last visit 48-3 five years ago. Tampa Bay lost four of last five post-bye games; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 1-5. Three of Bucs’ last four games stayed under total; four of 49ers’ last five games went over.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (4-2)— Roethlisberger (knee) is out here; Landry Jones (1-1 as starter), gets nod here— he didn’t last too long (4 passes) in the one win (vs Browns). New England won 33-13/35-17 in Brady’s first two games this year; NE is 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year. Patriots won six of last eight games vs Steelers, winning three of last four visits here. Average total in last ten series games is 50.7. Pittsburgh is 7-22 on third down in their two losses, 27-52 in their wins; their defense has zero takeaways in last two games (-3). AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. Since ’04, Steelers are 13-10 in games that Roethlisberger missed. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; four of six Steeler games also stayed under.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-3)— Seattle won its last three games since 9-3 loss in LA;, scoring 10 TDs on 32 drives after scoring one TD in 22 drives in first two games- they rallied back for 26-24 win over Falcons LW, after giving up 269 yards in third quarter alone to Atlanta. Short week for Redbirds after they waxed Jets 28-3 Monday; Arizona is +9 in turnovers in its three wins, -6 in its three losses (they were +2 in loss to NE). Cards are 15-3-1 under Arians in games where spread was 3 or less points; Seattle is 7-3-2 in last 12 such games. Cardinals are 5-4 in last nine series games, 3-2 in last five played here; Cardinals swept Seattle 39-32/36-6 LY, their first series sweep of Seahawks since 2009. Under is 4-2 in Arizona games; last three Seattle games went over the total.

Texans (4-2) @ Broncos (4-2)— Osweiler returns to Mile High City after bolting for Houston in free agency last winter; he rallied his new team back from down 23-9 with 4:00 left for dramatic win Sunday night, but Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 27-0 in Foxboro, 31-13 in Minnesota (Texans have one TD on 21 drives on road). Kubiak returns to sideline for Denver to face his former team; Broncos are 3-2 in last five series games, with average total of 48.2. Broncos lost last two games after 4-0 start, scoring two TDs on 24 drives after scoring 11 TDs on 41 drives in first four games. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; they lost 27-0/31-13 in ugly losses at Foxboro/Minnesota, but those might be two best teams in NFL. Last three Denver games stayed under the total; last three Houston games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 7 NFL

Giants (3-3) vs Rams (3-3) (London)— Injuries to Rams’ DB’s (especially Johnson), leave them vulnerable here against WR Beckham, who caught 8 balls for 222 yards, two TDs in comeback win over Ravens last week. Detroit averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempt, scored four TDs on seven drives vs Rams LW. Keenum was 27-32/321 in Detroit, but on last two drives, was 1-4 with an INT that ended game, much like Buffalo game when he threw pick-6 in tie game late in third quarter. Gurley carried 14 times for 58 yards, but had 14 on first carry of game- they have to get him more involved. Giants won last six games against the Rams, five by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2001. NFC West teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 10-4.

Vikings (5-0) @ Eagles (3-2)— Sam Bradford returns to Philly here; Eagles traded him*this summer*after Bridgewater’s knee injury in August. Minnesota is on 18-2 spread run, 5-0 this year, but they’re 1-5 in last six post-bye games. Vikings won 25-16/22-10 in road games this year; they’re 3-1 as road favorites under Zimmer. Eagles lost post-bye games to Lions/Redskins after 3-0 start; they’re 2-0 at home this year, beating Browns/Steelers by 14-31 points. Philly is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. Vikings’ 24-14 win here in 2010 (their last visit) snapped a 6-game skid in Philly. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-6 vs spread; NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-2. How often does a team face a QB who was in their training camp all summer?

Saints (2-3) @ Chiefs (3-2)— New Orleans won its last two games but allowed 72 points in doing so; Chiefs are 3-0 this season scoring 24+ points. Four of five Saint games this year were decided by 3 or less points; they’re 7-3-1 in last 11 games as road underdog, 2-0 this season. Since 2008, KC is 14-24 as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Seven of Chiefs’ 10 TDs this year came on drives of 62 or less yards- they’ve got only two TD drives of 75+ yards, and 25 is usual starting point for most drives, with new kickoff rules. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Saints won three of last four visits here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-1 vs spread this season; AFC West teams are 9-6 outside the division. Reid is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games, but is 5-10 vs spread in second week off those byes.

Redskins (4-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Washington won its last four games, Detroit its last two; Lions’ three home games were decided by total of five points. Redskins are 2-0 on road this year, with SU wins at Giants (29-27, +4), Ravens (16-10, +4). Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in Detroit games this year; Lions are 8-4-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-2 this year. Detroit won last three series games; Redskins lost 19-14/37-25 in last two visits here. Washington is 7-8 under Gruden in games with spread of 3 or less points (1-2 this year); favorites are 13-5-2 in Lions’ last 20 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC East road teams are 4-2 outside the division. Over is 5-1 in Washington games 4-2 in Detroit games this year.

Browns (0-6) @ Bengals (2-4)— Cincy lost four of last five games, giving up 63 points in last two games, losses at Dallas (28-14), Foxboro (35-17), but those are two of best teams in NFL so far. Bengals are 0-4 if they allow more than six yards/pass attempt, 2-0 if they allow less. Browns have been over 6.0 in spa in four of last five games. Cincy is 11-4 in last 15 games in this in-state rivalry; they outscored Cleveland 68-13 in two meetings LY, outscoring them 34-0 in second half. Browns lost six of last seven visits here. 0-6 Cleveland is 2-2 as a road dog, losing on foreign soil by 19-6-11-2 points- this is their fifth road game in seven weeks- they’re 10-8-1 in last 19 games as a road dog. Bengals are 13-7-1 in their last 21 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season.

Bills (4-2) @ Dolphins (2-4)— Buffalo is 4-0 since switching OCs and running ball more; they ran for 312 yards in win over 49ers LW, are averaging 211.8 RY/game since the change in OC. Bills are 7-5-1 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year- they outscored last three foes 45-9 in second half. Dolphins ran ball for 222 yards LW, after averaging 72.4 in first five games; since 2012, they’re 8-4-1 as home dogs. Bills won five of last six games with Miami, with four of five wins by 16+ points- they ran ball for 417 yards in 41-14/33-17 wins over Dolphins LY. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread in divisional games. Miami is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points (0-0 this year); Buffalo is 15-12-1 in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.

Raiders (4-2) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Jax came back from dead in Chicago LW; they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter, rallied for 17-16 win, their second win in row after an 0-3 start. Jaguars are 0-2 at home this year, with two losses by total of six points; they’re 6-10 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as a home favorite, but that goes back six years. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Oakland’s first six games; they’re 3-0 SU on road, all as an underdog- they’re 8-1 as road underdogs under Del Rio. Raiders are 4-6 under Del Rio in games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last four series games; Raiders lost 49-11/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC South teams are 9-8 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 9-6.

Colts (2-4) @ Titans (3-3)— Indy led 23-9 with 4:00 left at Houston LW, lost in OT, tough game to bounce back from; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 34-20 (+6) at Denver, 26-23 in OT at Houston (+3). Colts are 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog; they won last nine games with Tennessee, winning last four visits here, by 6-3-17-2 points- six of last eight series games were won by 8 or less points. Titans ran ball for 372 yards in winning last two games to even its record; Tennessee is 1-2 SU at home, with only win over 0-6 Browns- they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Tennessee is 5-14-3 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points. Indy is 10-11 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-11 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Ravens (3-3) @ Jets (1-5)— Ravens lost last three games after an 0-3 start; all six of their games were decided by six or less points. Baltimore is in Swamp Stadium for second week in row after losing to Giants 27-23 in last 2:00 LW- they had scored with 2:04 left to take lead. Jets were inept Monday night; Fitzpatrick has now thrown 10 INTs, no TDs in second half of games this year- will they switch to Smith at QB? Home crowd won’t be much help for Jets unless they get off to fast start. Baltimore won last eight series games, winning last three here by 1-3-14 points- last visit against Jets here was in 2010. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-8 vs spread. AFC East home teams are 6-3. Jets have been outscored 51-7 in second half of their last four games.

Buccaneers (2-3) @ 49ers (1-5)— Tampa Bay averaged just 86.6 rushing yards/game in their 2-3 start, but both wins came on road, in Atlanta/Carolina. Bucs are road favorite for first time since 2013; since ’07 they’re 3-5-1 as road faves. Tampa is 3-8 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points. 49ers lost last five games, giving up 312 rushing yards in 45-16 loss at Buffalo LW. Niners are 13-8-3 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less- they’re 17-5 in series, winning four of last five. Buccaneers are 2-12 here, losing last visit 48-3 five years ago. Tampa Bay lost four of last five post-bye games; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 1-5. Three of Bucs’ last four games stayed under total; four of 49ers’ last five games went over.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (4-2)— Roethlisberger (knee) is out here; Landry Jones (1-1 as starter), gets nod here— he didn’t last too long (4 passes) in the one win (vs Browns). New England won 33-13/35-17 in Brady’s first two games this year; NE is 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year. Patriots won six of last eight games vs Steelers, winning three of last four visits here. Average total in last ten series games is 50.7. Pittsburgh is 7-22 on third down in their two losses, 27-52 in their wins; their defense has zero takeaways in last two games (-3). AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. Since ’04, Steelers are 13-10 in games that Roethlisberger missed. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; four of six Steeler games also stayed under.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-3)— Seattle won its last three games since 9-3 loss in LA;, scoring 10 TDs on 32 drives after scoring one TD in 22 drives in first two games- they rallied back for 26-24 win over Falcons LW, after giving up 269 yards in third quarter alone to Atlanta. Short week for Redbirds after they waxed Jets 28-3 Monday; Arizona is +9 in turnovers in its three wins, -6 in its three losses (they were +2 in loss to NE). Cards are 15-3-1 under Arians in games where spread was 3 or less points; Seattle is 7-3-2 in last 12 such games. Cardinals are 5-4 in last nine series games, 3-2 in last five played here; Cardinals swept Seattle 39-32/36-6 LY, their first series sweep of Seahawks since 2009. Under is 4-2 in Arizona games; last three Seattle games went over the total.

Texans (4-2) @ Broncos (4-2)— Osweiler returns to Mile High City after bolting for Houston in free agency last winter; he rallied his new team back from down 23-9 with 4:00 left for dramatic win Sunday night, but Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 27-0 in Foxboro, 31-13 in Minnesota (Texans have one TD on 21 drives on road). Kubiak returns to sideline for Denver to face his former team; Broncos are 3-2 in last five series games, with average total of 48.2. Broncos lost last two games after 4-0 start, scoring two TDs on 24 drives after scoring 11 TDs on 41 drives in first four games. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; they lost 27-0/31-13 in ugly losses at Foxboro/Minnesota, but those might be two best teams in NFL. Last three Denver games stayed under the total; last three Houston games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Boat-Men visit Eagles'

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles October 23, 1:00 EST

The Minnesota Vikings arguably one of the best defensive teams in the league since coach Mike Zimmer's arrival in 2014 put a 5-0 SU/ATS streak on the line Sunday when they visit Eagles. Vikings with the leagues top scoring defense (12.6) not difficult making a case for the NFL's newest money-making-machine. Vikings enter this contest ridding a sparkling 9-0 ATS regular season streak, 18-2 ATS regular season stretch dating back to Week-2 last season. Vikings are also 15-3 ATS vs a team off a loss its previous game. A few additional betting nuggets in Vikings favor is that Eagles are 0-4 ATS off a loss vs a team off a win, 1-3 ATS off a loss as a favorite, 2-8-1 ATS hosting a team with a winning road record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Sunday Night Showdown'

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals October 23, 8:30 EST

The eyes of most football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the Sunday Night NFC West showdown between Seattle Seahawks (4-1, 2-3 ATS) and Arizona Cardinals (3-3 SU/ATS). The sports handicapping experts are giving Cardinals the nod in this game, making them -1.0 point home favorites while setting the total at 43.5.

Both teams are off victories. Cardinals crushed visiting Jets 28-3 Monday Night as -7.0 point home chalk while Seahawks edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a -7.0 point home favorites.

When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. Cardinals have not responded at the betting window following a win of 20 or more points (1-5 ATS), have struggled cashing after B-2-B SU/ATS wins (1-5 ATS), have not been a peg to hang your hopes on at home vs a division rival (1-4 ATS). On the other side, we've learned one thing about Seahawks, they've had their way with Arizona recently winning 5 of 7 both SU/ATS including 3-0 SU/ATS in Cardinals back-yard. Also, Seahawks thrive in an underdog roll (15-4-1 ATS) and are 7-2-1 ATS as road dogs vs a team off a win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 7
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 23

NY GIANTS vs. LOS ANGELES from London (NFL Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams 2-0-1 vs. line last 3 away have covered last two away from home but were 2-7-1 vs. line previous 10 in role. Fisher “under” 15-7-1 last 23 since late 2014. G-Men 11-17-3 last 31 on board.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Zimmer 5-0 SU and vs. line in 2016, now on 19-3 spread uptick since LY. Vikes “under” 23-15 since Zimmer arrived in 2014.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brees 9-3-1 as dog since 2014 (2-0 TY). Saints “over” 15-7 since LY. Interestingly, Chiefs no covers last seven after facing Oakland.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Curious series domination by Redskins (22-5 SU all-time!). Lions only 4-6-2 vs. line last 12 at Ford Field. Jay Gruden 11-6 last 17 as dog, also 8-2 last 9 vs. points in reg season. Skins “over” 5-1 TY and 7-3 last ten away.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and series trends.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy has won and covered last three and four of last five in series. Marvin Lewis 13-7-1 as reg season home chalk since 2013. Browns on 5-11-1 spread skid since early LY, Hue Jackson teams “over” 10-3 last 13 (Oakland in 2011 & Brownies TY).
Tech Edge: Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 5-1 SU and vs. line last six in series. Rex Ryan 6-2 vs. line last seven since late LY. Ryan teams 8-2 vs. line last ten vs. Dolphins. Miami 124 vs. line, 3-10 last 13, 4-12 last 16 on board.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team trends.

OAKLAND at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiduhs 9-2 vs. line away for Del Rio (2-1 as chalk on road). Oakland also “over” 20-10-1 last 31 since mid 2014. Jags “over” 14-8 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts have won last 9 SU in series, 4-1-1 last six vs. spread. “Overs” 5-2 last seven in series. Mularkey only 4-11 vs. line since becoming Titans HC.
Tech Edge: Colts and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 9-4 last 13 vs. spread as host. If Ravens chalk note 1-4-1 mark last six in role on road.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Falcs have covered last five this season, also “over” 5-1 in 2016 after entering season “under” 16-3 previous 19. Falcs 2-9 as chalk and 9-1 as dog for Dan Quinn! Bolts 20-9-1 last 30 as reg.-season visiting dog since 2012.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Chip Kelly 1-5 SU and vs. line last six for SF, 3-10 L13 in both dating to late LY with Eagles. Niners “over” 5-1 TY, Chip teams “over” 10-2 L12.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,’ based on recent Chip trends.

NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
“Overs” 6-2-1 last nine in series. Steel “over” 5-2 last seven as host, Brady “over” 23-16 last 39 as reg season visitor (not counting first two TY). Steel six straight covers at Heinz Field since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.


SEATTLE at ARIZONA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Hawks have won and covered big last 3 at Glendale vs. Cards. Visitor 6-1 vs. line last seven in series.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on series trends.


Monday, Oct. 24

HOUSTON at DENVER (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
O’Brien only 7-12-1 as dog since taking over Houston in 2014. Kubiak however only 2-5-1 as home chalk since LY, though Broncos 14-8-2 overall vs. line since 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

We had lousy weather in New York and Kentucky on Saturday, and it looks as if it will be better for Sunday and it needs to be as all three stakes at Keeneland and Belmont Park are on the turf.

The feature at Keeneland is the $125,000 Dowager(G3), the next to last graded stake at the fall meeting.

The race drew a solid field of 13 fillies and mares that will go 1 ½ miles on the turf. The SoCal shipper Elektrum is the 3-1 morning line favorite.

The mare ships in for trainer John Sadler off an eighth place finish in the Rodeo Drive (G1). Her last win came in last years’ John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar going 1 1/8 miles.

At Belmont Park, we have a pair of turf stakes—the $100,000 English Channel and the $200,000 Athenia (G3).

The English Channel drew a full field of three-year-olds that will go one mile on the turf. The George Weaver trained Isotherm is the 3-1 morning line favorite, but is wide open and I am not even sure he will be favored. Giant Run (5-1), Catapult (8-1) and Strike Midnight (7-2) all have a good shot.

The Athenia drew a field of 10 led by Strike Charmer (5-2), who is coming off a fourth place finish versus tougher in the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1). She won the Ballston Spa (G2) two back, ending the winning streak of Lady Eli.

I thought she might be headed toward the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), but her connections are going to bypass that race and try to get her a Grade 1 win by going in the Matriarch at Del Mar on Dec. 3.



Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:55 ET)
#1 Shimmering Moon 9-5
#2 Grassarla 2-1
#4 Urbanity 3-1
#3 Tough Old Bird 6-1

Analysis: Shimmering Moon makes her first start since April where she ran second to Starwithsilver, who came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next outing. The Hushion barn is 0 for 10 with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff but going back five years the trainer has hit at a 11% clip. Decent works on the morning tab for her return. She is out of the stakes winner Shine Upon ($178,937) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Tiz Time to Shine ($97,913).

Grassarla returns off a three-month break here for the Englehart barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The filly has two starts, pressing the pace in both before weakening to finish second and third. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers. She has five sibs that are winners, top earner

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Athenia G3 (4:46 ET)
#1 Strike Charmer 5-2
#2 Okana 6-1
#7 Mexican Gold 5-1
#9 All in Fun 6-1

Analysis: Strike Charmer cuts back from the 1 1/4 mile Flower Bowl (G1) where she finished evenly in a fourth place finish. Two back she upset Lady Eli in the Ballston Spa (G2) over the turf at the Spa at this distance. Hennig find a great spot for her here dropping into an easier spot as he is using this as a prep for the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar on Dec. 3.

Okana makes her U.S. debut here off a neck loss in the Sergio Cumani (G3) in Italy off a two-month break. She receives lasix for the first time and gets a 10 pound weight break over our top pick. She looks as if she has some upside and likely fits in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,7,9
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,7,9 / 1,2,7,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 The Dowager G3 (4:57 ET)
#4 Paige 8-1
#2 Elektrum 3-1
#5 Apple Betty 10-1
#6 Robillard 9-2

Analysis: Paige set the early fractions, dropped back on the backstretch, had to check hard near the 5/8's and finished up well while unable to match strides late with the winner in the ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs going 1 5/16 miles. The winner was Al's Gal, who returned to win the E.P. Taylor (G1) in her next outing at Woodbine. She does have a third in Grade 1 company in dirt but is just 1 for 7 on turf in her career. She comes in here in about the best for of her career and we should catch a decent price.

Elektrum ships in from SoCal for the Sadler barn. The mare was a game third two back in the John C. Mabee (G2) at nine furlongs but weakened to finish eighth last out in the Rodeo Drive (G1) at 1 1/4 miles, beaten four lengths. Last year she won the Mabee and was second in the Rodeo Drive but she did run into a toughie in Avenge this year.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #5 Journey Home 8-1
R4: #1 Moonlit Cove 10-1
R6: #4 Rich ‘n’ Tuck 10-1
R7: #5 Catapult 8-1
R9: #9 Pence 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Sunday’s games

Oilers-Jets is an outdoor game in Winnipeg; forecast for today is 49 and partly cloudy. Jets won five of last seven games with Edmonton (under 6-1). Oilers lost three of last four visits to Winnipeg. Edmonton won four of its first five games this season (over 3-2). Jets split first four games (over 3-1), winning two of three at home.

Islanders won six of last nine games with Minnesota; four of last six series games went over. Wild won two of its last three visits to Brooklyn, where teams are complaining about bad ice. Road team won five of last seven series games. Minnesota is 0-2 on road (3-0 at home); they lost in OT at New Jersey last night. Over is 3-1-1 in their games this month. Islanders lost three of first five games (2-1 at home), with last four staying under the total.

Rangers won their last five games with Arizona (over 3-0-2). Coyotes lost their last five visits to Manhattan (over 3-1-1). Arizona lost its last three games, outscored 15-8 (over 3-1). New York won in Washington last nite; they won three of last four games (over 4-1-1).

Canucks won four of last six games with Anaheim; under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Vancouver is 3-2 in last five visits here. Canucks won four of first five games (under 3-2); four of the five went either OT/SO- they lost road opener in SO yesterday. Anaheim started the season with a 1-4 road trip (under 2-1-2).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Sunday’s games

Oilers-Jets is an outdoor game in Winnipeg; forecast for today is 49 and partly cloudy. Jets won five of last seven games with Edmonton (under 6-1). Oilers lost three of last four visits to Winnipeg. Edmonton won four of its first five games this season (over 3-2). Jets split first four games (over 3-1), winning two of three at home.

Islanders won six of last nine games with Minnesota; four of last six series games went over. Wild won two of its last three visits to Brooklyn, where teams are complaining about bad ice. Road team won five of last seven series games. Minnesota is 0-2 on road (3-0 at home); they lost in OT at New Jersey last night. Over is 3-1-1 in their games this month. Islanders lost three of first five games (2-1 at home), with last four staying under the total.

Rangers won their last five games with Arizona (over 3-0-2). Coyotes lost their last five visits to Manhattan (over 3-1-1). Arizona lost its last three games, outscored 15-8 (over 3-1). New York won in Washington last nite; they won three of last four games (over 4-1-1).

Canucks won four of last six games with Anaheim; under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Vancouver is 3-2 in last five visits here. Canucks won four of first five games (under 3-2); four of the five went either OT/SO- they lost road opener in SO yesterday. Anaheim started the season with a 1-4 road trip (under 2-1-2).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (5th) Hunter O'Riley, 7-2
(6th) Gypsum Johnny, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (8th) Luvuryan, 3-1
(9th) My Friend George, 9-2


Gulfstream Park West (3rd) Bella Vincenza, 7-2
(6th) Twice Oaked, 7-2


Keeneland (1st) Sensational Ride, 7-2
(9th) Dahlia's Foxy Lady, 7-2


Laurel Park (1st) Irish Major, 3-1
(8th) Angel Vision, 4-1


Mountaineer (7th) Forged Signature, 3-1
(9th) Stardust Skies, 6-1


Parx Racing (2nd) A Wing and a Song, 7-2
(7th) True Romance, 3-1


Santa Anita (7th) Storm Comin Thru, 3-1
(9th) Forest Blue, 7-2


Turf Paradise (4th) Maggie's Guy, 7-2
(5th) Belisama, 7-2


Woodbine (6th) Wolf Dance, 8-1
(10th) Centrefire, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 7 of the Westgate Super Contest:

1) Minnesota Vikings (751) -2.5

2) San Diego Chargers (599) +6.5

3) Tennessee Titans (562) -2.5

4) New England Patriots (506) -7

5) Miami Dolphins (489) +3

6) Oakland Raiders (413) +1

Season record: 11-24-1


Early World Series odds:
Cubs -$175, Indians +$155