Sunday 10/23/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - Seattle at Arizona


ATS Trends


Seattle
•Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7.
• Seahawks are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Seahawks are 20-41-2 ATS in their last 63 games in October.
• Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.



Arizona
•Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7.
• Cardinals are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.


OU Trends


Seattle
•Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games in October.
• Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games on grass.
• Over is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games in Week 7.
• Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 13-6 in Seahawks last 19 vs. NFC West.



Arizona
•Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 home games.
• Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games in October.
• Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games on grass.
• Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC West.
• Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 vs. NFC.
• Under is 10-4 in Cardinals last 14 games overall.
• Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games in Week 7.
• Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games following a straight up win.


Head to Head


•Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Arizona.
• Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 7

Sun – Oct. 23

NY Giants at LA Rams, 9:30 AM ET
New York: 65-39 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Los Angeles: 28-55 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Minnesota at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 10-2 ATS as a favorite
Philadelphia: 46-26 UNDER in home games off a division game

New Orleans at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Kansas City: 15-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Washington at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 5-1 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Detroit: 14-29 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Cincinnati: 20-7 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game
Miami: 4-13 ATS against conference opponents

Oakland at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 9-2 ATS in road lined games
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis: 32-15 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS versus division opponents

Baltimore at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
New York: 12-25 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more

San Diego at Atlanta, 4:05 PM ET
San Diego: 7-0 ATS off a division game
Atlanta: 1-9 ATS as a favorite

Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
San Francisco: 6-16 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

New England at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 11-3 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Pittsburgh: 13-5 UNDER against conference opponents

Seattle at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 17-6 ATS in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Arizona: 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less last game


Mon – Oct. 24

Houston at Denver, 8:30 PM ET
Houston: 3-7 ATS off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival
Denver: 1-8 ATS off a division game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

The beauty of NASCAR's playoff system will be on display Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, the most volatile track in the series. Eight drivers will advance to the next round and four drivers will be eliminated.

It was designed that way by NASCAR to create the most drama possible just because races on the 2.66-mile restrictor-plate track are major crap shoots. No one knows what's going to happen and the cars are going 200 mph, but they're driving on egg-shells being ever so cautious.

Everyone has a shot to win and everyone also has a chance at seeing their car wrapped up in a 15-car pile-up. No driver is out of harms way. So while we're all watching 40 cars shuffle around for the lead, we've also the drama of 10 drivers try to take six of the remaining spots in the Round of 8 which begins next week at Martinsville.

Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have already advanced by virtue of winning the first twoi races of this round. For those on the cusp of not advancing, Talladega is definitely not the track they wanted to see to decide their 2016 fate.

The problem with restrictor-plate racing is that every car is equal and up to 35 of the 40 drivers have a legitimate shot to win. Just glance over the odds-to-win sheet this week and you'll notice a huge change from what was listed last week for Kansas. You won't see giant odds of 200/1 on anyone because almost anyone can win. Last week at Kansas only 15 drivers could legitimately say they could win.

Things happen fast at Talladega and drivers are sitting ducks. All it takes is for one driver to wiggle in line while 40 cars are stacked three-wide and it turns into a massive pile-up. At Kansas, there's a strategy, but at Talladega it's a crap shoot and the main goal for 178 of the 188 laps is to simply avoid trouble. It's easier said then done, but for a couple of early season favorites who are outside looking in to the transfer spot this week, they have to figure a way to win.

Let's take a look at the four drivers on the chopping block:

Austin Dillon: He's actually tied with Joey Logano for the eighth and final Chase spot heading into this weekend, but he loses a tie-breaker because Logano has had the highest in finish among the two races in the Round of 12. He comes in having to feel pretty good about his chances since he had a career-best third-place finish at Talladega in May. If we include results from the other restrictor-plate track at Daytona, Dillon's 11.9 average finish in 11 races since 2014 is second-best in the series.

Denny Hamlin: He's currently 6-points behind the eighth-place transfer position, a situation similar to last season when he was involved in a late wreck and ended his chances of winning his first championship. The Beneficiary was Kyle Busch who made the eighth slot and went on to win his first title. What Hamlin has going for him is being one of the elite plate-racers in the series. His 11.7 average finish in 11 plate races since 2014 is tops and he's captured two wins, including this years Daytona 500. He won at Talladega in 2014.

Brad Keselowski: He's just 7-points out of the eighth-place transfer position and he's going to his best track. Talladega seems to fit his style fine. He won his first career race there in 2009 driving for an underfunded part-time team and won in 2012 when he went on to win his first and only championship. He then won this race in 2014 to transfer to the next round and won there in May. That's four Talladega wins in 15 starts. A Ford driver has won the last two at Talladega and five of the past eight.

Chase Elliott: He's almost in a win or nothing category sitting 12th in points, 25-points behind the eighth position. His daddy set the track record for speed at 212 mph in 1987 and he's got a little bit of those genes in him based on his first Cup start at Talladega in May where he finished fifth.

While throwing darts at the dart board attached with car numbers, like I do to pick winners for most Talladega races, I came up a scenario that both Hamlin and Keselowski would advance meaning that two drivers currently sitting pretty will have some poor luck while being involved in somebody's wreck. My darts selected Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr. as the most unluckiest this week.

As for winning the race, bring out the dart board again or roll the dice. However, we have seen the Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske cars look strong winning 10 of the past 11 plates races between Talladega and Daytona.

One long shot to take a long hard look at this week is Alex Bowman driving Dale Earnhardt Jr's No. 88, a car which has three plate wins over the last 11. Bowman has never won a race before and he has a 30th-place average in four Talladega starts, but that car will be strong. All he has to is keep the pedal on the floor, stay out of trouble and he should have a great day. He's someone to at least consider among the many.

Not Talladega wager is a bad bet until they wreck. be cautious yourself at the windows and leave the match-ups alone unless some crazy book posts +115 on any driver against. Paul Menard +115 vs Kyle Busch? Give me Menard, please. Thank you. And I even like Kyle to fare well this week. But that's just it. It's so random that 15 cents of value is huge.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (12/1)

Chase Clinching Scenarios for Talladega (per NASCAR)

Note: Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have already clinched a spot in the Round of 8. With only one race remaining in this round, a new winner would be a win by Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski or Chase Elliott. A win by any other driver would be considered a repeat winner for the clinching requirements (so, Johnson/Harvick, or a non-Chase driver, or a driver ahead of Logano in points).

Matt Kenseth (0 Wins, 3074 Points) - Would clinch on points with 13 Points (28th and no laps led, 29th and led at least one lap, 30th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 11 Points (30th and no laps led, 31st and led at least one lap, 32nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Kyle Busch (0 Wins, 3072 Points) - Would clinch on points with 15 Points (26th and no laps led, 27th and led at least one lap, 28th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 14 Points (27th and no laps led, 28th and led at least one lap, 29th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Carl Edwards (0 Wins, 3069 Points) - Would clinch on points with 18 Points (23rd and no laps led, 24th and led at least one lap, 25th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 16 Points (25th and no laps led, 26th and led at least one lap, 27th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Kurt Busch (0 Wins, 3062 Points) - Would clinch on points with 25 Points (16th and no laps led, 17th and led at least one lap, 18th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 24 Points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Martin Truex Jr (0 Wins, 3058 Points) - Would clinch on points with 29 Points (12th and no laps led, 13th and led at least one lap, 14th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 28 Points (13th and no laps led, 14th and led at least one lap, 15th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Joey Logano (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Austin Dillon (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Denny Hamlin (0 Wins, 3039 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.

Brad Keselowski (0 Wins, 3038 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.

Chase Elliott (0 Wins, 3020 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Minnesota Wild (3-1-1) at New York Islanders (2-3-0)
By Kyle Compeau
Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Barclays Center)
The Line: New York Islanders -125 / Minnesota Wild +101 --- Over/Under:
TV:

The Minnesota Wild look for a road win on Sunday as they head into Brooklyn to battle the Islanders at at the Barclay’s Center.

The Wild look to snap out of their ugly road losing skid as they take on an Islanders side that is in desperate need of a victory after stumbling out of the gate in what should be an exciting matchup between two playoff hopefuls. The Wild head into this one with a 3-1-1 record but have been night and day when it comes to playing at home and on the road and if they can take a step forward this season and find ways to win outside of Minnesota they should be a playoff shoe in. Minnesota is expected to send Devan Dubnyk back to the crease despite getting the start last night against the Devils, as he is slated to match up with Jaroslav Halak who should be the every day starter for the Isles all season.

The Islanders meanwhile are coming off a day of rest and should be fired up to get off to a good start here against the Wild who will be on the move after a game last night against the Devils. New York is expected to be in the thick of things in the Metropolitan division this season as they have the roster to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference and after making the playoffs last season they are under the mindset that they can win a Stanley Cup if they can get their offense rolling.

The Wild are 6-14 in their last 20 against the Eastern Conference and 1-9 in their last 10 against the Metro while the Isles are 9-3 in their last 12 against the Central and 2-7 in their last nine overall. The Wild are a good team but are a different animal on the road and I think the well rested Isles continue their dominance over the Central with a win here.

KYLE'S PICK
New York Islanders -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Minnesota Wild (3-1-1) at New York Islanders (2-3-0)
By Kyle Compeau
Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Barclays Center)
The Line: New York Islanders -125 / Minnesota Wild +101 --- Over/Under:
TV:

The Minnesota Wild look for a road win on Sunday as they head into Brooklyn to battle the Islanders at at the Barclay’s Center.

The Wild look to snap out of their ugly road losing skid as they take on an Islanders side that is in desperate need of a victory after stumbling out of the gate in what should be an exciting matchup between two playoff hopefuls. The Wild head into this one with a 3-1-1 record but have been night and day when it comes to playing at home and on the road and if they can take a step forward this season and find ways to win outside of Minnesota they should be a playoff shoe in. Minnesota is expected to send Devan Dubnyk back to the crease despite getting the start last night against the Devils, as he is slated to match up with Jaroslav Halak who should be the every day starter for the Isles all season.

The Islanders meanwhile are coming off a day of rest and should be fired up to get off to a good start here against the Wild who will be on the move after a game last night against the Devils. New York is expected to be in the thick of things in the Metropolitan division this season as they have the roster to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference and after making the playoffs last season they are under the mindset that they can win a Stanley Cup if they can get their offense rolling.

The Wild are 6-14 in their last 20 against the Eastern Conference and 1-9 in their last 10 against the Metro while the Isles are 9-3 in their last 12 against the Central and 2-7 in their last nine overall. The Wild are a good team but are a different animal on the road and I think the well rested Isles continue their dominance over the Central with a win here.

KYLE'S PICK
New York Islanders -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vancouver Canucks (4-0-0) at Anaheim Ducks (1-3-1)
By Kyle Compeau
Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Honda Center)
The Line: Anaheim Ducks -152 / Vancouver Canucks +123 --- Over/Under: 5
TV:

The Vancouver Canucks continue their road trip in California on Sunday as they travel from Los Angeles to Anaheim to battle the Ducks.

The Vancouver Canucks have been one of the biggest surprises to start the season as they are off to a red hot start and can continue that effort with a strong showing on the road here against the Anaheim Ducks. Vancouver wasn’t expected to be much of a threat in the Pacific division this season and while they did drop a shootout decision at the Staples Center last night they did still earn a point and have looked the part of a playoff team so far and will look for more here against a good Ducks team. Vancouver will start Ryan Miller here as he looks to build on his fast start to the year as he will match up with John Gibson who has emerged as the go to guy for the Ducks.

Anaheim was idle last night and will be well rested heading into tonight’s show down but will need to find a way to get their offense going as Miller posted a shutout in his only start of the season and will be out for an encore here on the road. Anaheim has one of the best rosters in the NHL this season and are considered by many to be a a team to beat in the Western Conference but they have been struggling of late and need to get some of their big guns going soon if they’re going to live up to the hype. Gibson is a young goaltender but has the talent to lead his team to the Cup final and while a show down with Miller could make this an exciting contest I think he gives the Ducks the edge.

The Canucks are 5-1 in their last six overall and 3-8 in their last 11 Sunday games while the Ducks are 1-6 in their last seven overall and 37-14 in their last 51 Sunday games. Anaheim is rested here and catch the Canucks coming off a shootout loss and I think their fortunes continue as Anaheim should be able to grab the win.

KYLE'S PICK
Anaheim Ducks -152

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vancouver Canucks (4-0-0) at Anaheim Ducks (1-3-1)
By Kyle Compeau
Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Honda Center)
The Line: Anaheim Ducks -152 / Vancouver Canucks +123 --- Over/Under: 5
TV:

The Vancouver Canucks continue their road trip in California on Sunday as they travel from Los Angeles to Anaheim to battle the Ducks.

The Vancouver Canucks have been one of the biggest surprises to start the season as they are off to a red hot start and can continue that effort with a strong showing on the road here against the Anaheim Ducks. Vancouver wasn’t expected to be much of a threat in the Pacific division this season and while they did drop a shootout decision at the Staples Center last night they did still earn a point and have looked the part of a playoff team so far and will look for more here against a good Ducks team. Vancouver will start Ryan Miller here as he looks to build on his fast start to the year as he will match up with John Gibson who has emerged as the go to guy for the Ducks.

Anaheim was idle last night and will be well rested heading into tonight’s show down but will need to find a way to get their offense going as Miller posted a shutout in his only start of the season and will be out for an encore here on the road. Anaheim has one of the best rosters in the NHL this season and are considered by many to be a a team to beat in the Western Conference but they have been struggling of late and need to get some of their big guns going soon if they’re going to live up to the hype. Gibson is a young goaltender but has the talent to lead his team to the Cup final and while a show down with Miller could make this an exciting contest I think he gives the Ducks the edge.

The Canucks are 5-1 in their last six overall and 3-8 in their last 11 Sunday games while the Ducks are 1-6 in their last seven overall and 37-14 in their last 51 Sunday games. Anaheim is rested here and catch the Canucks coming off a shootout loss and I think their fortunes continue as Anaheim should be able to grab the win.

KYLE'S PICK
Anaheim Ducks -152

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oilers (4-1) at Jets (2-2)

Date: October 23, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

WINNIPEG -- There will be many more showdowns between Patrik Laine and Connor MacDavid, but this one could be the coolest of all time.

Probably literally and perhaps figuratively.

The two young guns and their teammates on the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers, respectively, wage battle in the Heritage Classic on Sunday afternoon on a spectacular outdoor rink in the middle of Investors Group Field, home to the Canadian Football League's Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

The forecast calls for a high of 45 degrees with a 70 percent of rain showers in the morning, but the precipitation is expected to end several hours before the 2 p.m. CT opening faceoff.

Laine is coming off a three-goal performance -- his hat trick was scored in less than 23 minutes -- including the tying and winning goals in a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday. The Oilers, meanwhile, defeated the St. Louis Blues 3-1 the same night with McDavid picking up a goal and an assist.

The teams will wear throwback jerseys to pay homage to their days in the World Hockey Association, the so-called "Rebel League" which operated from 1972-79. The Jets and Oilers were two of the four teams to merge into the NHL -- the Quebec Nordiques and Hartford Whalers were the others -- for the 1979-80 season.

More than 33,000 people will be in the stands for the game. The Jets sport a 2-2-0 record while the Oilers are 4-1-0.

Jets captain Blake Wheeler said the non-stop events surrounding the Heritage Classic weekend have been a "circus."

"We haven't really had a whole lot of time as a team to try to focus ourselves," he told the Winnipeg Free Press. "But I think once we come into the rink (Sunday), it's going to be pretty clear what the objective is. The circumstances and the big stage aside, it is just another game and we need to be prepared to play a certain way if we're going to give ourselves a chance to win (Sunday)."

The teams are experimenting with tinted visors and eye black to counter any glare off the ice.

Laine said he didn't notice any difference between the ice at IGF and the Jets home rink, the MTS Centre. Both sheets are artificial.

"I feel slow on every ice," he told the Free Press. "I think it's going to be just fine."

McDavid, the newly minted Oilers captain, said he was looking forward to playing outside, although it didn't take him back to his childhood as it would with many other Canadian kids.

"We tried to have a rink one winter but we had a small backyard. We wanted a pool and my dad wanted a deck and a hot tub and that kind of put a dent in the whole backyard thing," McDavid told the Edmonton Journal.

In the Heritage Classic's opening act, the Winnipeg Jets alumni defeated their Oilers counterparts 6-5 on Saturday afternoon thanks to a last-second penalty shot goal by 46-year-old Teemu Selanne. Known as The Finnish Flash, Selanne was clearly the most dangerous player on the ice, finishing with two goals and three assists. He retired following the 2013-14 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona Coyotes (1-3-0) at New York Rangers (3-2-0)
By Randy Chambers
Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Madison Square Garden)
The Line: New York Rangers -233 / Arizona Coyotes +180 --- Over/Under:
TV: FSAZ, MSG, NHL

The Arizona Coyotes and New York Rangers clash in a NHL game Sunday night at Madison Square Garden.

The Arizona Coyotes could use a nice feel good win to snap a rough three-game losing streak. The Coyotes are averaging three goals per game and are scoring on 11.8 percent of their power play opportunities. Brad Richardson leads Arizona with two goals, Alex Goligoski has three assists and Jordan Martinook has seven shots on goal. Defensively, the Arizona Coyotes are allowing 4.5 goals per game and are killing 84.6 percent of their opponents power plays. Louis Domingue has given up 10 goals on 61 shots faced and Mike Smith has allowed six goals on 60 shots. The Arizona Coyotes need to improve their defense if wins are going to come, as they’ve allowed three or more goals in nine of their last 11 games. Mike Smith is questionable with a knee injury.

The New York Rangers look for back-to-back wins for the first time after beating the Washington Capitals on Saturday. The Rangers are averaging 3.8 goals per game and are scoring on 14.3 percent of their power play opportunities. Chris Kreider leads New York with three goals, Mika Zibanejad has four assists and Rick Nash has 17 shots on goal. Defensively, the New York Rangers are allowing three goals per game and are killing 81.3 percent of their opponents power plays. Henrik Lundqvist has given up 10 goals on 92 shots faced and Antti Raanta has allowed four goals on 31 shots. The New York Rangers have scored 12 goals in their last three games and two of their three wins so far have come at home. Dan Girardi and Pavel Buchnevich are questionable.

The Coyotes are 2-5 in their last 7 Sunday games and 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Rangers are 2-6 in their last 8 Sunday games and 19-8 in their last 27 vs. Pacific. The Coyotes are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in New York and 3-13 in the last 16 meetings overall.

It's been a while since the Coyotes have had success in New York, and Arizona has had little to no success against New York overall over the years. The price is horrible and the Rangers are playing on the end of a back-to-back, but New York is the better team here and the Coyotes haven't looked sharp defensively. The Rangers should have their way on the offensive end and get the victory here.

RANDY'S PICK
New York Rangers -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFL: back to back road games'

In the NFL, winning on the road cab be a challenge at the best of times, winning the second of back to back road games is an even bigger obstable.

This is confirmed by our trusty NFL betting number crunching machine that tells us since the 2011 campaign road teams in the second of back to back games won 175, lost 205 with one tie. Betting wise, roadies are 195-178-8 against the betting line split between 77-58-15 as road chalk, 118-120-7 taking points in enemy territory.

Within those numbers, road teams off a loss have shown a penchant to keep backers happy cashing at a 56.3% clip (116-90-3) in the second of back-2-back road games going 41-19-1 (67.2%) ATS as road chalk, 75-71-2 (50.7%) ATS when taking points in enemy territory. Makes sense, if a team lost on the road last game they'll generally give a bit more effort the following week.

Even more eye-opening - Road favorites off a loss playing a team off a win has produced a sparkling 18-5-1 (75.0%) record against the betting line. Another profitable situation is when a road favorite off a loss takes on a division opponent in the second game. Here, the road favorites is 17-6 (73.9%) against the betting line.

The above mentioned eye-popping situations won't pop up often but these motivated road favorites have certainly passed the test of time and given the hit rate paying attention can pay off handsomely.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vikings look for respect

Should Vikings Be Getting More Love from Oddsmakers?

There is just one team in the NFL still with a zero in the loss column through Week 5 and that's the Minnesota Vikings.

So one might assume the Vikings are the Super Bowl betting favorites?

That would be false as Minnesota is +850 to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history. That trails the New England Patriots (+400), Pittsburgh Steelers (+600), Green Bay Packers (+800), a team the Vikings already have beaten this season, and Seattle Seahawks (+800).

The Vikings have started 5-0 for the fifth time in the last 20 years. On three of the previous occasions, they lost the NFC Championship Game. In 2003, they missed the playoffs after starting 6-0.

Minnesota wasn't supposed to be this good after losing starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater on the eve of the season to a very serious knee injury. The team also lost running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil to season-ending injuries. And you can add another to the list as the Vikings announced on Monday that starting right tackle Andre Smith was being placed on injured reserve and was to have surgery to repair a triceps injury.

Many around the NFL thought that Vikings general manager Rick Spielman vastly overpaid in sending a 2017 first- and conditional fourth-round pick following the Bridgewater injury to the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford. Now that looks like a steal for the Vikings.

Bradford is completing 70.4 percent of his passes (second in the NFL) with six touchdowns and not a single interception in his four starts (backup Shaun Hill started Week 1 as Bradford learned the offense). That's good for a rating of 109.8 that's also second in the league. Sam Bradford for NFL MVP? The Vikings are only the second team since 1933 to start 5-0 without throwing an interception, joining the 1969 Los Angeles Rams.

As solid as Bradford has been, it's important to note that the defense hasn't lost any top players to season-ending injuries as that group has been stellar.

In Sunday's 31-13 win over Houston, the Texans were held to 214 yards and 1-for-13 third-down conversions. No team has scored more than 16 points on Minnesota. it is No. 4 in total defense (287.6 yards per game), No. 1 in scoring defense (12.6 ppg), No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-11), tops in yards per play against (4.4) and tied for first with 19 sacks.

The Vikings create pre-snap confusion by disguising blitzes and shifting players. Against Houston, they had four sacks, 13 quarterback hits and eight pass breakups. Sunday’s victory was the ninth game in a row, dating to last season, that the Vikings gave up 17 points or fewer.

Minnesota now has one of the best home-field advantages as its new U.S. Bank Stadium as it's already considered the loudest stadium in the NFL.

Can the Vikings finish as the NFC's top seed so the road to the Super Bowl through the NFC goes through Minneapolis?

The Vikings are on the bye this week. Their remaining schedule looks to be one of the easiest in the NFL.

In Week 7, they go to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been a surprise but may have been exposed in the Week 5 loss in Detroit. After that, there's no team on the schedule with a current winning record until Dec. 1 against Dallas, but that's at U.S. Bank Stadium. The only other game vs. a winning team is Week 16 at Green Bay.

Despite holding a one-game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North and already with a head-to-head win, the Vikings and Packers are both -110 to win the division.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers headlines Week 7, but there's a catch
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 7 of the NFL season includes a great AFC clash that looked like it would feature two of the best quarterbacks of this era. But that won’t happen now. We talk about a few key opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

Pittsburgh has looked Super Bowl-contender great in its four wins, but equally as awful in its two losses – a blowout at Philadelphia in Week 3, and Sunday’s setback at Miami. The Steelers (4-2 SU and ATS) had only eight points until late in the fourth quarter and lost to the Dolphins 30-15 laying 7.5 points.

But the bigger news came postgame. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in the second quarter, but returned in the third quarter, though he didn’t play well. Afterward, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for this week’s game. He will have surgery this week, which will determine how much longer he’s out.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady’s return to action has been everything New England expected, and perhaps more. After throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a rout at Cleveland, Brady was back at it Sunday, with 376 yards and three TD passes in a 35-17 dusting of Cincinnati as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots are now 5-1 SU and ATS.

“Big Ben was initially listed as questionable, but is now out indefinitely,” Childs said. “The Steelers will be forced to start perennial journeyman Landry Jones, and I’m not sure we can open this line high enough. I really haven’t given the game much thought because of the Steelers’ quarterback situation, but the line will be well over a touchdown.”

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Sunday morning will come a few hours earlier for NFL fans – 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast, and a wicked 6:30 a.m. here in Vegas. That’s when the Giants and Rams will square off for their game in London.

New York (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got back to .500 on Sunday, thanks to the sometimes flighty Odell Beckham. The flashy wideout had eight catches for a whopping 222 yards and two TDs, including a 66-yard score that gave the Giants a 27-23 win over Baltimore as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Los Angeles (3-3 SU and ATS) has followed its three-game SU and ATS upswing by going 0-2 SU and ATS the past two weekends. On Sunday at Detroit, the Rams lost 31-28 as a 2.5-point pup.

“The Rams are going to be on the road for 10 days, having played in Detroit on Sunday, now going to travel straight to London,” Childs said. “While I believe that will help them get acclimated to the time and weather in London, that’s a long time to be away from home and family.

“This is truly a neutral-field game, and we have the Giants the higher power-rated team, so we opened them a solid 3-point favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Through six weeks, there’s only one unbeaten team left in the NFL, and it’s Minnesota. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and are coming off their bye week, following a 31-13 victory over Houston as a 6-point chalk on Oct. 9.

Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and Philadelphia have cooled off from their 3-0 SU and ATS start, losing SU and ATS each of the past two weeks. The Eagles were a 3-point favorite Sunday at Washington, but lost outright 27-20.

“Man, how the mighty have fallen,” Childs said. “The Eagles were the people’s champ two weeks ago, but now after back-to-back losses, I have a feeling bettors are going to be very shy about backing this team. The Vikings are coming off a bye, playing some great, great football.

“I had this game in the pick-’em range before the Eagles took the field against the Redskins, but after that below-average performance, we decided to open Vikings -2.5, and all the early money is on them. It didn’t take us long to get to Vikings -3, our current number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

NFC West rivals and playoff teams from last year collide in the Week 7 Sunday night game. Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a 7-point fave for its third consecutive SU win. Arizona (2-3 SU and ATS) still has some Week 6 work to do, hosting the New York Jets in the Monday nighter.

“A huge game and pretty much a must-win for the Cardinals if they want any chance to win their division,” Childs said. “The Cardinals play on Monday night, but we opened them a small 1.5-point home favorite, and a lot will depend how they look in their game against the Jets. The Seahawks are playing some really good football and are coming off a nice win over one of the hotter teams in the NFL.

“I have a feeling the public is going to back the Seahawks, but we’ll see.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 7
By Marcus DiNitto

Patriots at Steelers and Seahawks at Cardinals are two clear highlights of the NFL Week 7 card. Here’s a look at the complete slate, with opening betting lines from Las Vegas and some thoughts from Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons.

The numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 10:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Differences between books and early line moves are noted.

Sunday, Oct. 23

New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams, at London

We’re treated to breakfast-time football for the second time this season, as these 3-3 teams meet in Twickenham Stadium, the first time an NFL London game will be held somewhere other than Wembley.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Westgate was dealing Philly as the 1-point favorite on its look-ahead lines issued last Tuesday, but after the Eagles’ second straight loss, 27-20 at Washington, the book opened Minnesota as 2.5-point road chalk for next week.

Salmons saw a few troubling signs for the Eagles on Sunday: their defense and offensive line.

Since Philly’s 3-0 start and bye week, its defense “has really looked bad….It’s regressed big time,” said Salmons.

Salmons also pointed out that right tackle Lane Johnson being replaced by rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai as his 10-game suspension started Sunday resulted in a rough day for Eagles QB Carson Wentz. Wentz was harassed from the jump, sacked five times and finished just 11-for-22 for 179 yards.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

Multiple Vegas books opened Kansas City -7 on Sunday before a quick adjustment in New Orleans’ direction. Most shops moved to -6.5, while the Wynn went -7 (even).

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1.5)

The Westgate and Wynn both opened Detroit -2 and moved to -1.5 in Sunday night wagering.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10)

The Westgate bounced between 9.5 and 10 for this intra-state rivalry game, while Cincy opened -10.5 at the Wynn, where the number also dipped to as low as 9.5. The Bengals fell to 2-4 SU and ATS with a 35-17 loss at New England, but they take a big step down in class next week. Their two wins and covers have come against the Jets and Dolphins, so a home game against the Browns figures to be a good opportunity to get healthy.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Had a line on this game been posted two or three weeks ago, we’d be looking at Miami as the short favorite. Instead, Buffalo – winners of four straight – opened -2.5 at the Westgate and was bet to -3 (even).

How good are the Bills?

“A borderline playoff team, wild-card at best, lose in first-round,” Salmons forecasts.

As for the Dolphins – who, as 7.5-point home dogs, beat Pittsburgh outright on Sunday, 30-15 – Salmons said, “Miami is such a strange team. They’ll play a game like they did today, but whenever you start to say ‘this team’s not bad,’ they throw in those hideous games – you never know when they come.”

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)

This AFC contest opened pick ‘em at the Westgate, but Jacksonville was bet to a 2-point favorite within an hour. The Jags were available at -1 at other Vegas shops.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

If this line holds, it will mark the first time the Colts are underdogs against the Titans since 2012. Indy has beaten Tennessee in 14 of their last 15 meetings and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games in the series. Laying points against those trends takes some gumption.

Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets (pick ‘em)

The Ravens travel to MetLife Stadium for the second straight week, after losing to the Giants on Sunday. Next week’s game ranged from either team being a 1-point favorite when early lines were posted Sunday night.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

Atlanta faced as stiff a back-to-back as you’ll see in the NFL, with road games at Denver and Seattle in consecutive weeks. They came up just short in Sunday’s 26-24 loss to the Seahawks but rewarded their bettors as 6.5-point dogs.

“They showed a lot today,” Salmons said of the Falcons. “It’s a shame because they really deserved to win. The referees really screwed them at the end” by not calling a pass interference penalty on a pass attempt from Matt Ryan to Julio Jones.

The Westgate opened Atlanta -5.5 vs. San Diego and moved to -6, while the Wynn opened -6 and went to -6.5.

Tampa Bay Bucs (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Tampa opened -1 at the Westgate, with an early move to -1.5, and were hung as high as -2.5 at William Hill and the Wynn.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

CG Technology made the Pats -2.5 for this huge AFC tilt but took the game of its board when reports broke that Ben Roethlisberger will have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. Should Big Ben not be able to go and be replaced by Landry Jones, Salmons believes New England will be bigger than a touchdown favorite.

The Westgate had been dealing this game a pick ‘em on its games of the year lines, and in week-ahead wagering, sharp bettors took Pitt at that price and bet them up to -1.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1)

Seattle is 4-1 SU but hasn’t been particularly impressive, getting the money in just two of those five games. The Seahawks, though, are notoriously slow starters, beginning last season 2-4 SU and 3-3 SU the year before that. Salmons says next Sunday night’s visit to Arizona will tell us a lot about Seattle, as it faces its first true road test of the season.

Monday, Oct. 24

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos, losers of two straight, look to get on track coming off a bye to face their former quarterback Brock Osweiler. When the Texans have hit the road to face quality competition this season, it hasn’t gone well, as they were shutout in New England and boat-raced in Minnesota.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Minnesota at Philadelphia (+2.5)

Maybe it’s time to starting taking these Vikings seriously. They’re 5-0 SU (and, more importantly, 5-0 ATS) less than two months after franchise QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season after tearing up a knee in a practice. Many in the league ragged on Minnesota for giving up two high draft picks – including next year’s No. 1 – for retread Sam Bradford. But so far, so good. Bradford has a 109.7 passer rating and has thrown zero interceptions, letting the Vikings’ A-plus defense do the heavy lifting. Minnesota is holding opponents to under 13 points a game (best in the league). If they can get things done against the Eagles this Sunday, they could take complete charge of the NFC North real soon because Chicago and Detroit are up next. This could very easily be a field goal game, so giving 2.5 looks inviting.

Game to wait on

New England at Pittsburgh (+7)

It’s the Steelers’ bad luck that the schedule forces them to play their toughest opponent right after Ben Roethlisberger bangs up a knee. No. 7’s injury and meniscus surgery moved this game from close to a pick ‘em to Pittsburgh being a 7-point home dog, even though there were early-week rumblings that Roethlisberger might be able to go against the Patriots. Oddsmakers seem pretty certain that Roethlisberger will be sidelined, but on the off chance that he plays, the line could move several points in the Steelers’ direction. The Patriots have always played well in Pittsburgh, and are at close to full strength as they have been all season. Combined, the teams are 8-3 ATS.

Total to watch

Oakland at Jacksonville (48.5)

What gives with Oakland? After scoring a total of 62 points in wins over Baltimore and San Diego, the Raider offense threw up all over its cleats against the Chiefs – at home – in a statement game last Sunday. Oakland is now 1-2 at home and 3-0 (with three covers) on the road this season. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has taken advantage of a soft schedule and is back in the hunt in the weak AFC South. Given the inconsistency of Oakland’s offense and Jacksonville’s 8th-ranked defense, the under should get serious consideration here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 7 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 7:

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 40)

The Vikings are coming off a bye week, are well rested, physically sound, and riding a five-game winning streak. Philadelphia has now lost two straight after its week off. Quarterback Carson Wentz was a complete no-show against Washington and, although we do expect some sort of bounce-back game, he’ll have a tough time against a very strong Minnesota defense.

Sam Bradford is playing well enough to not lose games and has benefitted from a Viking stop unit that allowed 16 points in their opening game of the season and hasn’t allowed more than that since. Bradford isn’t throwing for big yardage but his six touchdowns and zero interceptions have kept the ship afloat as they tread through the 2016 season without Teddy Bridgewater.

Laying -2.5 at this point is a gift and there’s no foreseeable reason that money will be coming in on the home underdog by kickoff. Catch this at its lowest point and be confident in the fact that you took the better team.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 44)

I’ve always trashed historical results for more recent trends but the two combined can be a forceful argument. This week a hot Buffalo team travels to Miami. We get a nice kick with Miami beating an injury depleted Pittsburgh team this past weekend. Otherwise, I think this line should be -4 to -5. I’m rather shocked at the cheap price on this game.

Take away Miami’s win and you’re staring at a team that lost four of five entering the game and although the Dolphins seem to have been competitive, a closer look reveals the Seahawks started off very slow, the Patriots were without Brady, they beat Cleveland in OT (not impressive), then got beat by two upper-tier teams by a combined score of 52-24.

The Bills are hot and they don’t look to be slowing down. Not only are they carrying a four-game win streak, historically, they have been taking care of business when they play Miami. They’ve won five of the last six games the past three years. Marcel Dareus will be back soon, which only supplements a very strong Buffalo defense.

Buffalo’s is the NFL’s No. 1 rushing team that will be facing the NFL’s second-worst rushing defense. Buffalo could control the ball the entire game. I don’t see where there’s too much of a decision, especially if you can grab the -2.5 at your closest sportsbook early in the week.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 53)

I don’t like to have one game influence my decision making but I was most impressed with Atlanta’s play against Seattle. The Falcons hosts San Diego in Week 7 and was a penalty flag away from taking care of the Seahawks over the weekend.

I can’t put San Diego anywhere near the same class as Seattle and with this game at home, the differences are even more amplified. The Falcons will have something to prove this week as they not only have to look how their offense took apart Seattle’s revered defense but how they got robbed on the no-call on the game’s last play.

That all being said, the Chargers have played tough this year and lost a few doozies to date. Before their win against Denver’s tough defense, their scores totaled 65, 69, 48, 52 and 60. Similarly, Atlanta has been Over in five of its six games with the past two against the NFL’s two toughest defensive teams. The total is high for a reason and the winner of this game could come down to which team has the ball last.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Monday’s game brings an interesting matchup between Houston at Denver (-7, 41). The Broncos slammed into two buzz saws their last two games and I’m pretty sure they will be hyped to halt that streak come kickoff. But more interestingly is the return of Brock Osweiler.

Osweiler’s exit from Denver should add some extra flavor to the Broncos game. The vaunted Denver defense will come up big here for sure. Not that Osweiler is lighting up NFL defenses (8 TDs, 8 INTs) with a QB rating of 74, but the incentive here isn’t the player leaving the team, it’s the team that was left behind.

This is Houston’s third away game against top-tier teams and its results have been a 27-0 loss at New England and a 31-13 loss at Minnesota. Let’s not read into the tea leaves any more than we have to. This line may hit -9 before it gets started, so grab this early in the week. Throw out statistics and records, the situation calls for a big Denver win at home. Not much to see here. Keep walking to the cashier’s cage.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Bills' red-zone D vs. Dolphins' touchdown woes

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the more impressive teams over the last month, rattling off four consecutive victories while entering Week 7 action tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best touchdown differential in the league (+12). But it's the Buffalo defense that has been the real strength of the team, making it a modest favorite entering a divisional showdown with a Miami Dolphins team coming off an impressive win over visiting Pittsburgh.

The Bills have been their stoutest deep in their own territory, allowing foes to convert red-zone visits into touchdowns just 33.3 percent of the time - the best rate in the NFL, and well ahead of the 60-percent rate opponents scored red-zone TDs a season ago. Buffalo has allowed red-zone TDs just 14.3 percent of the time over its last three games, a major reason why the Bills are in the hunt for the AFC East lead despite opening the season with two straight losses.

They shouldn't face much red-zone resistance Sunday against the Dolphins, who rank a distant 26th in turning red-zone visits into touchdowns (47.1 percent); that rate dips to 37.5 percent over the last three. Settling for field goals over touchdowns could ultimately leave the Dolphins short on the scoreboard against a Buffalo defense that has overcome injury and a slow start to become one of the top units in the league.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Jarvis Landry

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1, 41.5)

Ravens' ball hawks vs. Jets' turnover problems

The Baltimore Ravens' defense is no longer the feared unit it was when linebacker Ray Lewis was patrolling the field. But while the 2015 edition of the Ravens D left fans wanting, this year's incarnation appears to be much better - at least where turnovers are concerned. Baltimore has bruised the opposition into coughing up the ball, and is looking at a sensational matchup in that regard Sunday afternoon against the turnover-prone New York Jets.

The 3-3 Ravens are riding a three-game losing skid into this week's encounter, but they probably deserved a better fate last time out as they dropped a 27-23 decision to the New York Giants despite forcing three turnovers. Baltimore ranks tied for fifth in average takeaways per game (1.8), and they're at +3 in turnover differential for the season - a significant improvement from 2015, when their -14 differential for the season ranked second-last in the league.

The Jets know how that goes; they've forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 turnover differential that is easily the worst in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick's six interceptions in a Sept. 25 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs certainly didn't help, but it's hardly the only major transgression - and now they have Geno Smith as their starting pivot. Look for Baltimore to hound the Jets into multiple turnovers, and to turn those free possessions into points.

Daily fantasy watch: Ravens D/ST

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1, 48.5)

Redskins' pitiful punting vs. Lions' league-leading leg

Both the Washington Redskins and the Detroit Lions should put their passing prowesses on display in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. But should these offenses struggle and be forced to play the field-position game, the Lions should find themselves with a significant advantage - and that could mean the difference between climbing back above .500 and scrambling to remain in the playoff hunt.

Punter Sam Martin has been a revelation for the Lions so far this season, leading the league in net yards per attempt (47.0) by nearly 1.5 yards over runner-up Thomas Morestead. He has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 10 occasions - just outside the top-10 at his position, despite having fewer punt attempts than everyone ahead of him on the list. Simply put, he has helped the Lions dominate field position even when the offense isn't clicking.

The Redskins haven't been nearly as fortunate, which could be their undoing this weekend. Washington ranks fifth from the bottom in net yards per punt (37.3), with Tress way averaging a mediocre 44.6 gross yards per attempt. At nearly 10 fewer yards per punt attempt than the Lions, the Redskins are clearly better off converting their chances rather than getting into a kicking game with one of the best in the business in Martin.

Daily fantasy watch: Lions D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 43.5)

Seahawks' stingy pass D vs. Cardinals' limp aerial assault

They may not be able to pull off the "Legion of Boom" monicker of years past, but the Seattle Seahawks still have a defense to be respected. Coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks, the Seahawks set their sights on Arizona in a divisional showdown with a Cardinals team that cruised past the New York Jets, but is still struggling to find consistency in the passing game - a weakness that could sink them on Sunday.

Despite getting torched by Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in Week 6, the Seahawks come into this one having allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (209.0) and only four passing touchdowns on the year - three of which came courtesy of Ryan. The opposing quarterback rating of 74.9 is the fourth-lowest in football, and is slightly better than the 79.6 rating opposing QBs posted against the Seahawks in 2015.

The Cardinals have been even stingier against opposing signal callers - allowing a minuscule 65.8 passer rating - but it's the Arizona offense that will be under the microscope this week. Arizona's 77.2 passer rating, compiled by Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, ranks ahead of only four other teams - and it's miles below the 96.5 rating the Cardinals boasted last season. Look for Palmer to have difficulty moving the chains against a Seattle defensive unit that remains one of the most imposing in football.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Larry Fitzgerald

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Books adjust to Big Ben

Roethlisberger Injury Could Torpedo Steelers' Super Bowl Chances

When the 2016 NFL schedule was announced in April, on the very short list of most important games of the season was this Sunday's New England at Pittsburgh matchup.

The Patriots and Steelers, after all, were the two favorites to win the AFC championship at BetOnline and led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively.

Those two have won six Super Bowl rings. And the winner of this game figured to have the inside track to being the AFC's top seed in the playoffs. Good luck to opponents winning an AFC title game in Foxboro or Pittsburgh.

However, the titanic showdown hit a bit of an iceberg last week when the Steelers laid a major egg in a surprising 30-15 loss at struggling Miami while also losing Roethlisberger to a torn meniscus in his left knee.

The good news is that it wasn't a more serious tear, but Big Ben won't play Sunday against the Patriots and there is no timetable on his return following surgery Monday.

It was a meniscectomy, which is the least invasive type of surgery to repair the injury. Roethlisberger's season is certainly not over but it's unlikely he returns until after a Week 9 game at Baltimore at the earliest. At least the Steelers do have their bye next week so that's one fewer game Roethlisberger will miss.

The Patriots would have been slight betting favorites even with Roethlisberger in the lineup, at least following Pittsburgh's showing in Miami, but now they are 7-point favorites, although that line has dropped a bit. It's the first time since 2000 that Pittsburgh has been a touchdown underdog at home.

This injury also likely ruins any shot for Roethlisberger to win his first NFL MVP Award. He was the betting favorite with Atlanta's Matt Ryan entering Week 6.

Big Ben leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes but was not good against the Dolphins. This will be the 10th time in 13 seasons that Roethlisberger doesn't play the full regular-season schedule.

A loss Sunday would essentially knock Pittsburgh (4-2) three games being New England (5-1) in the conference standings when you include the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Patriots aren't likely to be underdogs the rest of the season with their toughest games Week 8 at Buffalo, Week 10 vs. Seattle and Week 15 in Denver.

New England is down to +125 to win the AFC title following two stellar games from Brady following his suspension. Could Brady win his third MVP Award despite playing only 12 games? Pittsburgh is +400 for the AFC championship. Now the Steelers need to simply concentrate on winning the AFC North and earning at least one home playoff game.

Former Oklahoma star Landry Jones will be under center for the foreseeable future for the Steelers. He started twice for an injured Big Ben last year with mixed results. Jones was 8-for-12 for 168 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 25-13 home win over Arizona.

The next week, he was 16-for-29 for 209 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in a 23-13 loss in Kansas City. If Jones were to go down, Zach Mettenberger, who started 10 games for Tennessee combined the previous two seasons, would take over.

If the Steelers are thinking of upgrading the QB situation, the NFL trade deadline is Nov. 1.

But, no, Pittsburgh won't be dealing for the Cowboys' suddenly expendable Tony Romo because of his huge cap number.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 7

Isolating the Dolphins (+300 ML) and 49ers (+270 ML) turned out to be profitable in Week 6 as it was Miami who came through as the lone sizeable underdog at home a week ago. It clearly was Miami's best effort to date and that outright win was never really in question after half.

Aside from those two teams, the only other team to win outright were the Dallas Cowboys (+170 ML) as they were very impressive in Green Bay. Cleveland and Atlanta were able to cover the generous spreads they were given, but this piece is all about big underdogs on the moneyline and this week our list is a little shorter.

Week 7 Underdogs that Qualify

New Orleans Saints (+7); ML (+230)
Cleveland Browns (+9.5); ML (+330)
San Diego Chargers (+6.5); ML (+230)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5); ML (+265)
Houston Texans (+7.5); ML (+280)

We've always got to begin with the weekly occurrence of Cleveland being on this list and while they have been a feisty team ATS, until they actually win a game it's going to be very tough to consider them outright. I will say this though, they've shown a knack to play the Bengals extremely tough for the better part of the decade – at least once – and the Bengals could still be licking their wounds from their visit to New England last week.

Speaking of New England, they are in Pittsburgh this week to take on the Steelers minus Big Ben. Landry Jones has proven to be a serviceable QB in the past, he's at home (a plus) and still has plenty of weapons around him. Miami did pan out last week as the lone home team on the list like Pittsburgh is this week, but I'm not looking to get in the way of the Tom Brady Revenge Tour with a backup QB. That leaves us with the Saints, Chargers and Texans on this list and all three are road dogs facing teams that are either leading their respective divisions or a half-game back.

New Orleans is in Kansas City to play the Chiefs and would love to extend their winning streak to three in a row. There is no doubt the Saints have the offensive capabilities to put up points on this Kansas City squad and if Drew Brees and company are rolling, KC might not be able to keep pace. I fully expect the Chiefs to play the ball control game here and rely on their defense to shut things down, but the Saints are a very live dog here.

Houston heads out to Denver for MNF and this is an interesting game because it's Brock Osweiler's return to Denver. Everyone knows that Houston's new QB would love to go into his old home and beat up on them, especially considering how poorly the relationship between Osweiler and the Broncos ended. But that same mentality can be applied to the Broncos and while they were disappointed that Osweiler left town, there isn't an organization – including Houston – that knows Osweiler better than Denver right now and the Broncos should come away with the W in primetime.

That leaves the Chargers and they might have the most favorable spot of the three. For one, they are coming off an impressive Thursday night win against those Broncos and those few extra days of rest and prep time will definitely help them.

Secondly, while the Chargers are on the road in Atlanta, they catch the Falcons off a brutal three-game stretch that saw them go 2-1 SU against three Super Bowl contenders coming into the year from Denver, Carolina, and Seattle. That last two of those games were on the road and there has to be some sort of letdown coming soon for the Falcons after that stretch. With games against Green Bay, and a revenge match with Tampa on deck for the Falcons, I'm not sure we will see the best of them in this inter-conference matchup against San Diego.

So, look for at least one of the Saints (+230) or the Chargers (+230) to surprise many with an outright victory in Week 7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Clearly the most newsworthy thing to happen in the NFL in Week 6 was the torn meniscus suffered by Ben Roethlisberger in the Steelers' puzzling loss in Miami on Sunday. Big Ben underwent surgery on Monday and unfortunately will miss this Sunday's home showdown with New England. That's all I will say about that injury for now as I will preview Pats-Steelers as the Sunday game of the week later here at Doc's, although it's not quite as intriguing with Landry Jones facing Tom Brady.

Perhaps the other two most important things to happen in Week 6 involved teams on their bye in Week 7: Dallas and Carolina. The Cowboys absolutely can't turn the team back over to Tony Romo even if healthy for Week 8. Dak Prescott has been stellar in his place. They -- whoever they are -- always say professional athletes shouldn't lose their jobs due to injury. That's hogwash. Brady got his first NFL chance because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe in New England. And then Romo got his starting shot when Bledsoe got hurt in 2006 while with Dallas. In Sunday's impressive win at Green Bay, Prescott wasn't just way better than Aaron Rodgers but also broke Brady's NFL record of most pass attempts to begin a career without a pick. Brady's mark was 162 and Prescott reached 176 before he was picked off by Morgan Burnett.

Yet Prescott perhaps even isn't the best rookie on his own team .Ezekiel Elliott had 157 yards rushing in the win, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to rush for at least 130 yards in four straight games. He probably welcomes the bye week as Elliott has already carried the ball a league-high 137 times and leads the NFL by far with 703 rushing yards. Which guy do you give NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors too? If the Cowboys keep this up, you might have to consider one of them for MVP and the other for OROY.

Meanwhile, things are going downhill fast with the defending NFC champion Panthers. You can all but stick a fork in them returning to the playoffs at 1-5 even though the Chiefs rallied from that same hole to earn a wild-card spot last year. No team that started 1-5 or worse after reaching the Super Bowl has made the playoffs. Cam Newton acted like a petulant child after Sunday's 41-38 loss in New Orleans, giving a few terse answers to the media and then storming out of the press conference. Way to be a leader. Newton did become the all-time leading Panthers passing yardage leader in the game. Yippee.

Here are some Week 7 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday's game (Bears-Packers), the marquee Sunday matchup (Pats-Steelers) or the Monday night game (Texans-Broncos) as I will be previewing them here individually. Dallas and Carolina are the only teams off this week.

Giants at Rams (+2.5, 44): This game is at London with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff but the twist is that it's the first-ever NFL game at Twickenham Stadium, the home of English rugby. The Rams, smartly I think, opted to fly straight to England following Sunday's loss in Detroit rather than basically add eight hours of extra travel by flying home and then back across the country and pond. I wonder when the Rams will start looking toward the future and actually play No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff. It certainly won't be this week barring injury as Case Keenum was great against the Lions in completing a team-record 19 consecutive passes during one stretch and finishing with a career-best 321 yards passing and three touchdowns in the close defeat. Keenum also ran for a touchdown. The Giants ended a three-game skid with a 27-23 come-from-behind win over the Ravens. Odell Beckham Jr. was magnificent with 222 yards receiving, including TDs of 75 and 66 yards (the winning score) on eight catches. But he also got another really stupid penalty after the winning TD that could have proven very costly in giving the Ravens better field position after the kickoff. Guy never learns. Beckham now has 10 career games with at least 140 receiving yards, the most in a player's first three seasons. The pick: Giants and over.

Bills at Dolphins (+2.5, 44): Rex Ryan for Coach of the Year? I have to chuckle after typing that because I thought he'd be the first one fired. Everyone piled on Rex after he fired his offensive coordinator following a 0-2 start, but this is a completely different team under new coordinator Anthony Lynn. The Bills have been running the ball down their opponents' throats since Lynn took over and had a crazy 312 yards rushing in Sunday's blowout of San Francisco. LeSean McCoy has been the AFC's best back under Lynn and had 140 yards and three scores vs. the 49ers. Buffalo has won four straight for the first time in eight years and could theoretically take the AFC East lead with a win Sunday and then by completing a season sweep against New England in Week 8. The Dolphins shockingly dominated the Steelers on Sunday in a 30-15 upset. Jay Ajayi likely will be a popular pickup in your fantasy leagues this week if available as he had 204 yards rushing and two scores. He joined Ricky Williams as the only Dolphins with a 200-yard, two TD game. The pick: Bills and under.

Browns at Bengals (-10, 45.5): This might be the last time many of the citizens of Cleveland pay attention to the local NFL team this season with the NBA champion Cavaliers starting their season next week and the Indians potentially in the World Series. Looking at Cleveland's schedule before the season, there were probably 3-4 games I circled where they had a chance to win and avoid a potential 0-16 campaign. This past Sunday's matchup in Tennessee was one but the Titans won 28-26. Cleveland (0-6) now is off to its worst start since 1999 when the Browns lost their first seven as an expansion franchise. For some reason, Coach Hue Jackson went for two when the Browns scored a TD with 2:07 left to cut their deficit to 28-19. You have to go for one there to make it a one-possession game. Naturally the Browns didn't convert. Jackson is of course Cincinnati's former offensive coordinator. That unit has disappointed this year without Jackson as the Bengals were held under 20 points for the fourth time in 2016 on Sunday in a 35-17 loss at New England. Cincinnati dropped to 2-4 for the first time since 2010, when it finished 4-12 -- its worst season under coach Marvin Lewis, who might be fired if the Bengals lose this one. The pick: I wouldn't give 10 but 9.5 I would. Go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: League handling of Brown case draws criticism
By The Sports Xchange

Some NFL owners and players are distancing themselves from Josh Brown, the New York Giants' kicker whose abusive past came to new light this week.
The embattled kicker admitted to years of abusive behavior toward his ex-wife in newly released police documents. CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reported Friday that some teams are unhappy with how the situation has been handled by the league.
There have been parallels drawn between the NFL's handling of the Brown case and the Ray Rice domestic violence scandal at the end of the 2013 season.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith joined the chorus of criticism with a series of tweets in response to the news that Brown was placed on the commissioner's exempt list, which still allows him to get paid while he is not eligible to play.
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith said the NFL's "system is broken."
In addition, NFL owners, executives, coaches and players have privately expressed their displeasure over how the league and the Giants have handled the domestic violence allegations against Brown, sources confirmed to ESPN.

--The San Francisco 49ers promoted running back DuJuan Harris from their practice squad to add depth at the position.
The move gives San Francisco a third running back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday when the 49ers will be without starter Carlos Hyde because of a shoulder injury.
Shaun Draughn or Mike Davis will start in Hyde's place.
The 5-foot-7, 206-pound Harris joined the 49ers last Dec. 22. In two games (one start) with San Francisco last season, he had 27 carries for 140 yards along with nine receptions for 97 yards.

--The Baltimore Ravens activated running back Lorenzo Taliaferro from the physically unable to perform list.
The team also elevated cornerback Robertson Daniel from the practice squad to the active roster.
Taliaferro and Daniel are expected to play for the Ravens (3-3) in Sunday's game against the New York Jets (1-5) at MetLife Stadium.
In his third NFL season, Taliaferro has seen action in 16 career games, producing 339 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 81 carries. He has 13 receptions for 143 yards and five special teams tackles.

--The Houston Texans placed cornerback Kevin Johnson on injured reserve, two days before clash at the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.
Johnson suffered a broken foot in Houston's overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Johnson is among four players ruled out for the Texans on Monday, joining safety Quintin Demps (calf), linebacker Brian Peters (quadriceps) and running back Jonathan Grimes (ankle).
For the Broncos, outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware will miss his fifth consecutive game due to a fractured forearm. He was injured in a Week 2 victory over Indianapolis and has not practiced since.

--Gail Cogdill, one of the Detroit Lions' all-time leading receivers, has died at the age of 79.
Cogdill died Thursday night of complications from heart and kidney failure and dementia in Spokane, Wash.
A three-time Pro Bowler, Cogdill was selected by the Lions in the sixth round of the 1960 NFL Draft out of Washington State. He played for Detroit in 1960-68 and at one time held the team record for career receiving yards with 5,221.
Cogdill was named the NFL's top rookie in 1960 after catching 43 passes for 642 yards and a touchdown.