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Best Bets - Week 7

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Last week's NFL Best Bets turned out to be good ones as that 2-0 sweep of the card finally arrived six weeks into the season. Miami definitely played like their season was on the line in beating Pittsburgh outright, while the Giants overcame a few mistakes and got a big play from Odell Beckham in the final minutes to come away with the W.

This week we've got a bunch of games with very tight spreads and it's two of those games that make this week's card.

Best Bet #1: Minnesota Vikings -3

The 5-0 SU and ATS Minnesota Vikings are back after a week off and they head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Minnesota has covered 10 straight games against the number dating back to their Wildcard defeat vs. Seattle last year (includes the preseason), and look like a legitimate contender to make a deep run in this year's playoffs with the defense they've got.

No Minnesota opponent has scored more than 16 points against this team in their five victories and that unit should be able to frustrate and harass rookie QB Carson Wentz.

Wentz was a media darling after he got the Eagles off to a 3-0 start, but the Eagles have lost their last two games. Both of those came on the road so being back at home is a positive for the Eagles, but Wentz and company have yet to face a top tier defense like the Vikings have and this one could get ugly in a hurry. Philadelphia is just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against a team with a winning record and have a 2-8-1 ATS mark at home against a team with a winning road record. Chances are the Eagles won't be the first team to put up 17+ points on Minnesota this week and if that's the case, they aren't going to have much of a shot at covering.

Finally, we can't forget that Minnesota has been a great bet away from home during the Mike Zimmer era as they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 away from home. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six against a winning team, 22-4 ATS after covering the number in their last contest, and have had two weeks to prepare how to attack Philadelphia on both sides of the ball. Teams off a bye haven't been great ATS so far this year, but Minnesota will buck that trend this week.


Best Bet #2: Indianapolis Colts +3

I don't need to spend much time talking about the brutal collapse the Colts went through last week in Houston as a 14-point lead with seven minutes left should be safe for any NFL team. But now the OT defeat puts the Colts at 2-4 SU and in last place in the AFC South. Like the Dolphins last week, this is one of those games where the season is basically on the line for Indy and they'll find a way to get the job done this time around.

The Colts have not lost to Tennessee since Andrew Luck came to town in 2012, and with an 0-2 SU record within the division right now, Indy's got to have this game. Offensively, they showed some good things a week ago in Houston with the O-Line looking much better than they have in the first few weeks of the year and even RB Frank Gore and the running game had a solid effort.

Obviously the offense would have preferred to close out the game themselves with a first down or two in the final minutes, but if the Colts want any hope of being a playoff team in 2016, they've got to put that loss behind them and move on. Even at 2-4 SU they are only two games out of first place in the division right now and do still have three division home games remaining after this week where they can make up more ground.

Tennessee has looked good during this two-game winning streak they are currently on, but this is still a team that's 1-for-3 in getting home wins this year and that first victory came last week against the hapless Browns. I'm not so sure the Titans will be completely ready to deal with a desperate Colts bunch this week, especially when recent history suggests that this is one team the Titans just haven't been able to beat.

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings with Indy, and are just 8-23-1 ATS after their last 32 outright victories. That last trend added another loss to the column after they failed to cover against Cleveland a week ago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report
Sunday's games

BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW YORK JETS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
--Out: LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), LB C.J. Mosley (thigh)
--Doubtful: S Kendrick Lewis (thigh), WR Steve Smith (ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (biceps), CB Shareece Wright (thigh), G Marshal Yanda (shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Kamar Aiken (thigh), QB Joe Flacco (right shoulder), WR Devin Hester (thigh), CB Jerraud Powers (thigh) CB Jimmy Smith (concussion), T Ronnie Stanley (foot)
NEW YORK JETS
--Out: TE Braedon Bowman (knee), LB Darron Lee (ankle), T Brent Qvale (neck), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ankle)
--Questionable: T Ryan Clady (shoulder), C Nick Mangold (knee), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle)

BUFFALO BILLS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
BUFFALO BILLS
--Out: T Seantrel Henderson (back)
--Doubtful: DT Marcell Dareus (hamstring), WR Robert Woods (foot)
--Questionable: TE Charles Clay (ankle), RB Jerome Felton (back), T Cordy Glenn (ankle), C Patrick Lewis (knee), RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), CB Kevon Seymour (shoulder), DT Kyle Williams (neck)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: TE Jordan Cameron (concussion), CB Xavien Howard (knee), TE Dion Sims (concussion)
--Questionable: RB Arian Foster (hamstring), LB Jelani Jenkins (groin), CB Tony Lippett (hamstring), LB Spencer Paysinger (hamstring, calf)

CLEVELAND BROWNS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
--Out: CB Marcus Burley (hamstring), WR Corey Coleman (hand), TE Seth DeValve (knee), QB Josh McCown (left shoulder)
--Doubtful: CB Joe Haden (groin)
--Questionable: DE Xavier Cooper (shoulder), WR Terrelle Pryor (hamstring), TE Randall Telfer (ankle)
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Questionable: TE Tyler Eifert (back, ankle)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at TENNESSEE TITANS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
--Out: TE Dwayne Allen (ankle), DT Henry Anderson (knee), WR Phillip Dorsett (foot, hamstring), DT Zach Kerr (ankle), LB Curt Maggitt (ankle), G Jack Mewhort (tricep), WR Donte Moncrief (shoulder)
--Questionable: CB Darius Butler (calf, hamstring), S T.J. Green (knee), C Jonotthan Harrison (illness), WR T.Y. Hilton (hip)
TENNESSEE TITANS
None listed.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
--Out: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), TE Mycole Pruitt (knee, back)
--Doubtful: WR Jarius Wright (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Stefon Diggs (groin), WR Laquon Treadwell (thumb)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
--Questionable: CB Ron Brooks (calf), LB Mychal Kendricks (ribs), DT Bennie Logan (groin), CB Leodis McKelvin (hamstring)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle), RB Brandon Bolden (knee), LB Jamie Collins (hip), WR Julian Edelman (foot), DT Woodrow Hamilton (shoulder), LB Shea McClellin (concussion), WR Malcolm Mitchell (hamstring), LB Elandon Roberts (ankle), DT Vincent Valentine (back)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: T Marcus Gilbert (ankle), DE Cameron Heyward (hamstring), QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee), S Shamarko Thomas (groin), C Cody Wallace (knee), WR Markus Wheaton (shoulder), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: LB Stephone Anthony (hamstring), CB Delvin Breaux (fibula), LB Dannell Ellerbe (quadricep), RB Daniel Lasco (hamstring), CB Sterling Moore (abdomen), T Andrus Peat (groin)
--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (knee), DE Paul Kruger (back)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
--Questionable: RB Jamaal Charles (knee), CB Phillip Gaines (knee)

NEW YORK GIANTS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
NEW YORK GIANTS
--Out: S Nat Berhe (concussion), T Marshall Newhouse (calf), S Darian Thompson (foot)
--Questionable: LS Zak DeOssie (ankle)
LOS ANGELES RAMS
--Out: DT Michael Brockers (thigh), CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle)
--Doubtful: G Jamon Brown (hand), WR Nelson Spruce (calf)
--Questionable: DE William Hayes (ankle), DE Robert Quinn (shoulder)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
OAKLAND RAIDERS
--Doubtful: G Vadal Alexander (ankle)
--Questionable: G Jon Feliciano (calf), C Rodney Hudson (knee), G Gabe Jackson (knee), RB Taiwan Jones (knee), RB Latavius Marray (toe), S Brynden Trawick (shoulder), T Menelik Watson (calf)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Questionable: T Kelvin Beachum (knee), DE Jared Odrick (hip), TE Neal Sterling (foot), TE Julius Thomas (ankle)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at ATLANTA FALCONS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
--Out: S Jahleel Addae (collarbone), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (ankle), CB Brandon Flowers (concussion)
--Questionable: WR Travis Benjamin (knee)
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Out: WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), CB C.J. Goodwin (hamstring)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
--Out: DE Robert Ayers (ankle), RB Doug Martin (hamstring), DT Clinton McDonald (hamstring)
--Questionable: CB Jude Adjei-Barimah (knee), C Joe Hawley (knee), DT Gerald McCoy (calf), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring), TE Luke Stocker (ankle)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
--Out: RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder)
--Questionable: DT Glenn Dorsey (knee), CB Rashard Robinson (concussion), WR Torrey Smith (back)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at DETROIT LIONS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
--Out: TE Jordan Reed (concussion)
--Questionable: WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder)
DETROIT LIONS
--Out: TE Eric Ebron (ankle, knee), LB DeAndre Levy (quadriceps, knee), DT Haloti Ngata (shoulder), RB Theo Riddick (ankle), T Corey Robinson (ankle)
--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), G Larry Warford (groin), RB Dwayne Washington (ankle), LB Tahir Whitehead (abdomen)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS on Sunday night
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Out: DE Quinton Jefferson (knee), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (ankle), RB Thomas Rawls (fibula), TE Luke Willson (knee)
--Questionable: S Kam Chancellor (groin)
ARIZONA CARDINALS
--Out: DT Ed Stinson (toe)
--Doubtful: WR John Brown (hamstring), LB Gabe Martin (knee)
--Questionable: WR Jaron Brown (knee), QB Carson Palmer (hamstring)

HOUSTON TEXANS at DENVER BRONCOS on Monday night
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Out: S Quintin Demps (calf), CB Kevin Johnson (foot), LB Brian Peters (quadriceps), RB Jonathan Grimes (ankle)
DENVER BRONCOS
--Out: OLB DeMarcus Ware (forearm)
--Questionable: WR Cody Latimer (concussion), T Russell Okung (concussion)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 7
By Micah Roberts

The public parlay bettors in Las Vegas are all in on the Patriots, Vikings, Raiders, Bills, Seahawks and Broncos, but the big concern for South Point sports book director Chris Andrews on Friday was the four games hovering around '3', the most key number in the NFL.

"We're a little different over here how we handle 3," said Andrews," so we've got big some exposure already."

What the South Point does different is being the only sports book to exclusively use flat numbers. You won't see -2.5 (-120), -3 (EV) or +3.5 (-120) on their boards on the south end of the strip.

While other books use it a way to deflect an onslaught of action by adding extra juice on a desired number, the South Point takes multiple limit bets at the flat key number before moving. Andrews says it usually takes three to four of those limit bets before moving up or down the ladder, but it's also dependent on what the market is showing.

So far through six weeks of action his book has been sided or middled just once with the favorite landing 3.

"The big one so far that has been one-sided is Tennessee (at home vs. Colts) who we opened -2.5, which they (sharps) laid, and then they laid -3 also, so we're real close to going to -3.5," said Andrews.

When they are eventually pushed to moved, they'll certainly get buy-back on the Colts at +3.5, a team whose last two losses were by three points each.

The Vikings opened -2.5 at Philadelphia on Monday and it didn't take long for the wagers to accumulate enough to move to -3. "We've bounced back and forth on that game," he said. "Each time at +3, we saw Philly action, but it's settled down a bit since Tuesday."

The Eagles were popular plays after they destroyed the Steelers 34-3 in Week 3, but after two straight losses, the public is off the wagon and sides with the Vikings coming off a bye who are the only team to win and cover all five of their games. A straight-up win by the Eagles is what the house wants here.

Just about every book in the city has the Giants -3 (EV) for their London game against the Rams -- MGM Resorts has -2.5 (-120). But Andrews is sitting -2.5-flat and he's ping ponged a couple times up to -3-flat. Large straight bet action accumulated enough taking +3 that he went back to -2.5 on Friday morning.

The Bills have been one or the more popular bets with small money this week in their game at Miami, but enough large wagers took the Dolphins +3 that Andrews dropped it down to -2.5 on Thursday. It's the only -2.5-flat on the Bills in town and while smaller wagers are adding up quickly on the Bills, he's sitting fine on the game, minus the huge Bills parlay risk.

The Bills have won and covered their last four coming in and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with Miami, but they'll be without its best player in RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring).

One of the more surprising bets of the week has been such early action on the Broncos for their Monday night home against the Texans. It's unusual to see the Monday night game get so much attention this early in the week, especially from the parlay players. When the South Point opened Denver -7 on Monday, they were bet up to -7.5 within two hours and then went to -8 on Thursday.

"I can see the logic behind the Denver wagers," said Andrews. "You've got Brock Osweiler making his return to Denver, and the Broncos last two losses had one without their starting quarterback and the other without their head coach. This kind of looks like a good spot for them to bounce back."

Gary Kubiak will be back coaching on the sidelines Monday and Trevor Siemian will be starting at QB,

Andrews said he also took big wagers on the Lions -1 at home against the Redskins and the Saints +7 at Kansas City. The Saints, typically not known for traveling well, have covered their last four road games.

The dreaded five-team parlay that could wipe the books out Sunday if all five cover are New England laying -7 at Pittsburgh (without Ben Roethlisberger), Minnesota (-3) at Philadelphia, Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville, Buffalo (-3) at Miami and Seattle (+2) at Arizona.

The sports books all across town will hope to avoid losing on a few of those consensus public plays on Sunday, but then they head into the Monday night game which is going to be a whopper of risk with everything piled into a game that has already been heavily bet early the week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 7 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Another NFL Sunday will open in London’s Wembley Stadium, so strap in for a longer session of marathon viewing. The Giants are supplying plenty of story lines to draw local interest, while the on-field circumstances – falling below .500 through seven games – should get our attention early. From top-to-bottom, it looks like the most entertaining card we’ve had in a few weeks. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 7:

Sunday, Oct. 23

N.Y. Giants vs. Los Angeles: Odell Beckham, Jr. comes off one of those games that single-handedly swing fantasy weeks, so it’s fitting his breakout won one for his actual squad, too. Not that he celebrated with them, but that’s another story. Beckham will look to shine overseas against a Rams secondary that is still without top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle), who will miss another contest despite traveling and getting his walking boot off. The Rams defense has been a shell of itself due to injuries that have left Aaron Donald a little lonely, which is why they’ve surrendered 30.5 points over the past two games. Robert Quinn and William Hayes should be in the mix, while Michael Brockers (hip) will remain out. Beckham had a hip issue keep him out earlier in the week, but he’s fine and set to fuel an offense that got Rashad Jennings back and comes off matching its season-high with 27 points. Eli Manning is 4-0 in his career against the Rams, throwing 12 touchdowns and just one pick, while counterpart Case Keenum comes off a four-TD game where he set a franchise record with 19 straight completions. Robbie Gould will kick for New York instead of Josh Brown, who was left off the trip and placed on the commissioner's exempt list.

Minnesota at Philadelphia: Sam Bradford is back in Philly in all his undefeated glory, squaring off against rookie Carson Wentz, who still hasn’t lost at home and can therefore continue to walk on water. Carson City, Wentzylvania will continue to thrive if the No. 2 overall pick can excel against the NFL’s top defense, but he’s got his work cut out for him. Wentz was pressured into mistakes in losses at Detroit and Washington and no longer has Lane Johnson (suspension) protecting him up front, so this will be a telling test for his development. The Vikings have allowed a single offensive touchdown in each of their past two games, come off a bye and surrender a league-low 12.6 points per game. They’re 1-1 after bye weeks under Mike Zimmer, giving up 15.5 points. Stefon Diggs, the team’s top playmaker not on IR, is questionable with a groin injury that kept him out in Week 5 but has a legitimate shot to return. Philly’s top WR, Jordan Matthews, will play through a knee issue.

New Orleans at Kansas City: The Saints come off a huge win over Carolina to restore a little hope that this season won’t be a lost cause, but putting together a three-game winning streak is going to depend on them getting stops that have mostly eluded them thus far. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 31.0 points, second-highest in the league, but the defense gives up an NFL-worst 33.6. Four of their five games have gone over the posted total, each reaching 69 or more points. New Orleans is hoping to have LB Dannell Ellerbe (quad) back, but has shaken up its linebacker corps in an effort to try and shake up a group without a number of guys it expected would be starters and key contributors. The Chiefs are far healthier and come off a statement road win in Oakland where the secondary shined again, Marcus Peters added another interception and an aggressive defense continued to thrive despite the continued absence of sack master Justin Houston (knee). He returned to practice on Wednesday, while LB Tamba Hali and CB Phillip Gaines got back from less significant knee ailments, so Kansas City should be able to overcome losing DE Allen Bailey (pectoral) for the season last week. The Saints lost the last meeting between these teams in 2012, but won in their last trip to Arrowhead in ’08.

Washington at Detroit: Both teams come in on winning streaks and would be part of the NFC playoff picture heading to the season’s halfway point with a win here. Detroit has had an edge in being able to play its last two games at Ford Field and finds itself there again, looking for dome-field advantage against a ‘Skins squad that is a perfect 2-0 on the road thus far and has won five straight dating back to last season. Winning without RBs Theo Riddick (ankle) and Ameer Abdullah will likely be the task for the Lions again this week with Riddick unlikely to get back. Newly-signed RB Justin Forsett should get carries alongside Zach Zenner, but most of the heavy lifting should again be done by Matthew Stafford. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well and will likely be a game-time decision, so Golden Tate could be in for another big day after coming up with a career-high 165 receiving yards against L.A. DE Ziggy Ansah (ankle) finally made it back last week, but Detroit’s defense could be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata for a second straight game. Washington TE Jordan Reed and S Su’a Cravens remain in concussion protocol, but may be cleared in time to participate. WR DeSean Jackson is also optimistic he’ll return from a shoulder injury. Detroit has won three straight in the series, but the ‘Skins are looking for their first five-game winning streak since late 2012.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals have defeated their AFC North rival Browns three straight times and won eight of 11, but this one could have a decidedly different feel. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings by a combined margin of 98-13, embarrassing Cleveland at every turn, but must now face the offensive coordinator at the helm for those wins, current Browns head coach Hue Jackson. Although he’s at the helm of the NFL’s only winless team, Cleveland has shown some improvement despite all its injuries and has covered two of its last three road games. Rookie QB Cody Kessler has had an impressive stint and will probably keep the job when Josh McCown (clavicle) returns, but pulling off an upset in the game oddsmakers see as Week 7’s most lopsided hinges on getting WR Terrelle Pryor and CB Joe Haden back from injuries. The Bengals may get TE Tyler Eifert back after an extended absence, so their offense could have more bite, a necessity since they’ve averaged 16.0 points over their four losses.

Buffalo at Miami: The Dolphins have won consecutive games only once over their last 30, so seeing them as a home underdog in this spot shouldn’t be a surprise. Miami did take apart Pittsburgh in Week 6’s biggest upset after injuring Ben Roethlisberger, so this is an opportunity to claw back into the AFC race. The Bills have won four straight since losing to the Jets at home, winning by double-digits and covering each time out. This week’s major question mark surrounds the availability of LeSean McCoy, who suffered a hamstring injury in practice and may sit this out. Marcell Dareus may finally return from a hammy ailment of his own, while rookie Shaq Lawson is certain to debut, so the Buffalo defensive line could be a force. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ projected starting offensive line was finally intact with Branden Albert and rookie Laremy Tunsil returning and Mike Pouncey settling in, so they’re optimistic after springing Jay Ajayi for over 200 yards and not allowing a single Ryan Tannehill sack. Buffalo has won five of six in the series.

Oakland at Jacksonville: The Jaguars survived getting blanked through three quarters when Blake Bortles hit a fortunate late TD pass to Arrelious Benn for a 17-16 win at Chicago. They’re as healthy as any team in the league at the moment and looking for their first three-game since 2013, which would only be their third such run this decade. Jacksonville is also in search of its first home victory since last December. The Raiders are tied for first place in the AFC West with defending champ Denver despite a poor showing in a home loss to Kansas City where they produced a season-low 10 points, managing just a field goal over the last three quarters. Look for the start here to be critical since the Raiders haven’t trailed after a first quarter all season, while the Jaguars have only led after one once, coming up with just two offensive touchdowns, both on short fields. Jack Del Rio is returning to Jacksonville for the first time as head coach of another team after compiling a 68-71 record while serving there from 2003-11, reaching the playoffs only twice. The Raiders have won the last two meetings, both against their current coach’s successors.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts are looking for their 10th consecutive win in this series against their AFC South foe, having won 14 of 15. The last meeting featured Zach Mettenberger and Josh Freeman as starting QBs, but we did get one Andrew Luck/Marcus Mariota duel. The Colts won 35-33 when the Titans failed on a last-minute two-point conversion, so we could see another fun one. Indianapolis is desperate, looking to avoid a 2-5 start that would probably cost Chuck Pagano his job on top of last week’s collapse in Houston. The Titans are looking for their first three-game winning streak since early 2011 and are favored against the Colts for the first time since ’12, back in Luck’s first visit to Nashville. He won that 19-13 in OT and has never lost to Tennessee, but will have to survive this trip with a banged-up receiving corps working against a healthier Titans squad.

Baltimore at N.Y. Jets: New York turns to Geno Smith at QB in a move that seems to be coming from upstairs. Ryan Fitzpatrick rightfully lost the job, but it seemed like Todd Bowles wanted to give him one last chance in their most winnable game in weeks before being waved off. Smith was picked off in Arizona and has been intercepted in three of his last four appearances, making him 24-for-32 over his career. For once, the Jets will be facing a team that has had worse injury luck than they have, since it appears Baltimore will be without Steve Smith, Sr., and key offensive lineman Marshal Yanda in addition to having key defensive players Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, C.J. Mosely, Jimmy Smith all nursing injuries of varying degrees. QB Joe Flacco is nursing a shoulder issue and hasn’t practiced, so he looks like a game-time decision. Flacco has never lost against the Jets, who have dropped their last eight against the Ravens, winning only the inaugural meeting back in 1997 (20-17 OT).

San Diego at Atlanta: The Falcons managed to rally from an ugly start in Seattle and convinced any remaining doubters that they’re for real despite a 26-24 loss. They lead the NFL in scoring (33.2) and look far more proficient than last year, when they fell apart after a 5-0 start. We’ll see if they have staying power this season, but they’ve got an obscene array of weapons. Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman form the top RB combo in the league, Julio Jones is among the top receivers and Atlanta’s tight ends can all stretch the field. Mohamed Sanu (groin), who has also been a huge asset, is the only significant offensive player hurting. The Chargers are traveling cross-country on extra rest after an upset of the Broncos on Oct. 13 but have started 0-3 on the road. San Diego has never won at the Georgia Dome and hasn’t beaten Atlanta in six tries dating back to its last win back in 1988.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick will make his second start for the 49ers, coming off an erratic performance in a 45-15 loss at Buffalo where he wasn’t intercepted but created few big plays. San Francisco’s offense has run the NFL’s most plays under Chip Kelly, but that has put his injury-depleted defense in a tough spot since time of possession isn’t a priority and his offense hasn’t been productive. No team has given up more points than San Francisco, which hopes to turn things around by feasting on an opponent that also ranks among the league’s worst in point-differential. Coming off a bye week after an upset of Carolina, the Bucs are looking to get to .500 if they can overcome the continued absence of RB Doug Martin and WR Vincent Jackson, who was just put on IR. This will be the Bucs’ first trip to Santa Clara-based Levi’s Stadium and Jameis Winston’s first game against the Niners. Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five on this series.

New England at Pittsburgh: The Steelers hope their homefield advantage can keep this close to steal as they open up a stretch without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger against the mighty Patriots. After minor knee surgery earlier this week, Roethlisberger won’t be available for a few weeks, which leaves Landry Jones to man a potent offense. Keeping things simple and getting the ball to elite playmakers Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell should be a formula for success, but Jones playing well enough to win is only half the battle. Pittsburgh remains without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) but are expected to get LB Ryan Shazier (knee) back in the mix. Tom Brady will have to be careful with the football against a defense that’s faster than most, so there’s a chance the Steelers can stay perfect at home. Dating back to last season, they’ve won seven straight at Heinz Field. New England has won six of eight in the series, including three of four in Pittsburgh.

Seattle at Arizona: There shouldn’t be many opportunities to nod off in this Sunday night game as the NFC West’s top two teams clash. The Cardinals can now move back above .500 if they hold serve at home in what will be their fifth outing in Glendale, which is another reason why they don’t want to let this one get away. Seattle can grab a 2.5-game lead in the division, not to mention a head-to-head edge with a home game remaining, if it can pull this upset. The Seahawks may be without safety Kam Chancellor (groin), which would be an even bigger loss given Richard Sherman’s sideline outburst last week shedding light on the disharmony among their elite secondary. DEs Michael Bennett and Frank Clark are likely to play, so Seattle should get after Carson Palmer, who has missed practices this week due to a hamstring issue. He’s not very mobile as it is, so Arizona may have to turn back to Drew Stanton as it looks for a third straight win. Seattle won in Arizona 36-6 in Week 17 last season and hasn’t lost there since 2012, taking the last three meetings by a combined margin of 105-34.

Monday, Oct. 24

Houston at Denver: This one is the Brock Osweiler Bowl. Despite largely disappointing, the former Broncos backup has led the Texans to a 4-2 start, putting them atop the AFC South. If you checked out of the Sunday night game early, you were likely shocked when you awoke to news Houston came back to beat the Colts in OT. Osweiler led the comeback, saving his best throws for last, but mostly struggled until the final few drives. He can’t afford a sluggish start on the road against a defense that has made no secret that they would love to tear their former teammate apart. Texans CB Johnathan Joseph (forearm) will play, CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) is likely but safety Quintin Demps (calf) probably won’t play, so their secondary remains injury-plagued. That’s good news for Trevor Siemian, who looked shaky in a Thursday night road loss at San Diego as the Broncos struggled with protection. Denver has won three of the five meetings since 2004, including a 37-13 rout in Houston in ’13.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers

Week 6 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 16-20 SU, 13-23 ATS

Review: It's been anything but Lock-tober this month, as the Patriots were the lone team to cover in Week 6.

Vikings (-3, 39 ½) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, UNDER 3-2
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Vikings are fresh off the bye week as Minnesota is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Sam Bradford began training camp with the Eagles, but was dealt to the Vikings following Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending knee injury. Bradford makes his return to Philadelphia as the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown six touchdown passes and no interceptions in four starts for Minnesota. Since Week 2 of 2015, the Vikings have compiled an incredible 19-2 ATS record the past 21 games, including nine consecutive covers on the road.

Philadelphia
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Eagles jumped out to a quick 3-0 start under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. However, Philadelphia has been grounded the last two weeks after losing at Detroit and Washington as a short road favorite. Philadelphia’s offense failed to bust the end zone in last week’s 27-20 defeat at Washington as Carson Wentz was limited to 11 completions and 279 yards passing. The Eagles own a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at home this season, as Philadelphia is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2010 when the Vikings upset the Eagles as 14-point underdogs, 24-14.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +3

Saints at Chiefs (-6, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Saints have erased an 0-3 hole by winning consecutive games against the Chargers and Panthers by a combined four points. New Orleans has topped the 32-point mark in four of five games, while holding off Carolina as a 2 ½-point home underdog last Sunday, 41-38. The OVER has cashed easily in the last three games, as the Saints’ defense has allowed an average of 39 points per game in this span. Since Week 3 of last season, New Orleans has compiled an amazing 9-2 ATS record in its past 11 opportunities in the role of an underdog.

Kansas City
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Chiefs have gone through an uneven start through the first five games, alternating wins and losses during this stretch. Kansas City shoots for its first two-game winning streak of the season after dominating Oakland last Sunday, 26-10 as one-point road favorites. The Chiefs held the dynamic Raiders’ offense to three points in the final 57 minutes, while Kansas City rushed for 183 yards and three different players found the end zone on the ground. Kansas City has taken back home-field advantage by winning seven straight games at Arrowhead Stadium since last October, but the Chiefs have covered only three times in this span.

Best Bet: Kansas City -6

Redskins at Lions (-1 ½, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Redskins have overcome an 0-2 start to run off four consecutive victories to sit one game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. Washington improved to 2-1 inside the division after holding off Philadelphia, 27-20 as three-point home underdogs, while limiting the Eagles to 249 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of the first two games (both losses), but hasn’t reached 300 yards passing in the last four contests, all victories. Washington has been dominant in the role of an underdog since last season, putting together an 8-1 SU/ATS record in its last nine when receiving points.

Detroit
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Lions have been several exciting games at Ford Field this season as all three home contests have been decided by a total of five points. After blowing a fourth quarter lead in a Week 2 loss to Tennessee, Detroit held off Philadelphia and Los Angeles in close victories. The Lions posted their second-highest point total of the season in last Sunday’s 31-28 triumph over the Rams, as quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the last two weeks. Detroit is hosting Washington for the first time since 2010, while the Lions beat the Redskins in their previous matchup in 2013 in D.C. by a 27-20 count.

Best Bet: Washington +1 ½

Raiders at Jaguars (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Silver and Black put up a thud last Sunday in a 26-10 home defeat to the Chiefs, as Oakland has been outgained in all six games this season. With running back Latavius Murray sidelined, the Raiders’ rushing attack was grounded by picking up only 64 yards. Murray is expected back in the lineup on Sunday, but he has also struggled out of the gate by gaining 235 yards in four games following 1,066 yards in 2015. However, Oakland has thrived in the road underdog role since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach last season by posting a perfect 8-0 ATS mark, including outright wins this season at New Orleans and Baltimore.

Jacksonville
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The AFC South may be the worst division in football, but you can’t say it’s not competitive. Jacksonville is one way away from the .500 mark after starting 0-3 as the Jaguars held off the Bears last Sunday, 17-16. The Jags scored all 17 of their points in the fourth quarter in spite of putting up only 311 yards for the game. Jacksonville has yet to bust through the win column at home as its first victory over Indianapolis came in London, as the Jaguars have lost six of their past nine games at Everbank Field since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland +1

Chargers at Falcons (-6, 54 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

There probably isn’t a team in the NFL that has played to more exciting finishes than the Chargers. Five of San Diego’s six games have come down to the final minutes, including last Thursday’s 21-13 home victory over Denver as three-point underdogs. After building a 21-3 advantage, the Broncos rallied to score 10 points and had a chance to tie the game on the final play, but couldn’t convert a Hail Mary pass. The Chargers travel to the east coast for the first time this season as San Diego has yet to win away from Qualcomm Stadium, owning an 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS road mark.

Atlanta
Record: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons are back at home for the first time since outlasting the Panthers in Week 4, as Atlanta split a pair of road games in tough environments at Denver and Seattle the last two weeks. Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker in Seattle in Week 6, but the Falcons managed a cover as seven-point underdogs for their fifth consecutive cover. The Falcons are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season, as Atlanta has cashed just once in 10 chalk opportunities since 2015. Atlanta cashed seven UNDERS in eight games at the Georgia Dome last season, but has eclipsed the OVER in both home contests this season.

Best Bet: San Diego +6

Patriots (-7, 47 ½) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

What a difference one player makes. Or just Tom Brady coming back from his four-game suspension. Brady has totaled 782 passing yards in two blowout victories over the Browns and Bengals, while throwing three touchdown passes in each win. Not only are the Patriots sitting atop the AFC East at 5-1, but New England has covered in all five victories. New England held off Pittsburgh in the 2015 season opener, 28-21 as 7 ½-point home favorites, as Brady carved up the Steelers’ defense for four touchdown tosses. The Pats have captured six of the previous eight meetings since January 2005, but New England fell in its past visit to Pittsburgh in 2011 by a 25-17 count.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers will look to recover from last Sunday’s surprising 30-15 road favorite loss at Miami, as Pittsburgh also suffered a huge loss with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injuring his left knee. Big Ben will miss several weeks as backup Landry Jones is thrust into the starting role. Jones came in relief to beat the Cardinals as a home underdog last season, but lost in his only NFL start at Kansas City the following week. The Steelers own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record at Heinz Field this season, while posting a 4-0 ATS mark in its past four home underdog opportunities since 2013.

Best Bet: New England -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 7
By Kevin Rogers

Week 6 Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS
Overall Record: 16-20 SU, 13-23 ATS

Review: It's been anything but Lock-tober this month, as the Patriots were the lone team to cover in Week 6.

Vikings (-3, 39 ½) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, UNDER 3-2
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Vikings are fresh off the bye week as Minnesota is the lone unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Sam Bradford began training camp with the Eagles, but was dealt to the Vikings following Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending knee injury. Bradford makes his return to Philadelphia as the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown six touchdown passes and no interceptions in four starts for Minnesota. Since Week 2 of 2015, the Vikings have compiled an incredible 19-2 ATS record the past 21 games, including nine consecutive covers on the road.

Philadelphia
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Eagles jumped out to a quick 3-0 start under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. However, Philadelphia has been grounded the last two weeks after losing at Detroit and Washington as a short road favorite. Philadelphia’s offense failed to bust the end zone in last week’s 27-20 defeat at Washington as Carson Wentz was limited to 11 completions and 279 yards passing. The Eagles own a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at home this season, as Philadelphia is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2010 when the Vikings upset the Eagles as 14-point underdogs, 24-14.

Best Bet: Philadelphia +3

Saints at Chiefs (-6, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Saints have erased an 0-3 hole by winning consecutive games against the Chargers and Panthers by a combined four points. New Orleans has topped the 32-point mark in four of five games, while holding off Carolina as a 2 ½-point home underdog last Sunday, 41-38. The OVER has cashed easily in the last three games, as the Saints’ defense has allowed an average of 39 points per game in this span. Since Week 3 of last season, New Orleans has compiled an amazing 9-2 ATS record in its past 11 opportunities in the role of an underdog.

Kansas City
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Chiefs have gone through an uneven start through the first five games, alternating wins and losses during this stretch. Kansas City shoots for its first two-game winning streak of the season after dominating Oakland last Sunday, 26-10 as one-point road favorites. The Chiefs held the dynamic Raiders’ offense to three points in the final 57 minutes, while Kansas City rushed for 183 yards and three different players found the end zone on the ground. Kansas City has taken back home-field advantage by winning seven straight games at Arrowhead Stadium since last October, but the Chiefs have covered only three times in this span.

Best Bet: Kansas City -6

Redskins at Lions (-1 ½, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Redskins have overcome an 0-2 start to run off four consecutive victories to sit one game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. Washington improved to 2-1 inside the division after holding off Philadelphia, 27-20 as three-point home underdogs, while limiting the Eagles to 249 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of the first two games (both losses), but hasn’t reached 300 yards passing in the last four contests, all victories. Washington has been dominant in the role of an underdog since last season, putting together an 8-1 SU/ATS record in its last nine when receiving points.

Detroit
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Lions have been several exciting games at Ford Field this season as all three home contests have been decided by a total of five points. After blowing a fourth quarter lead in a Week 2 loss to Tennessee, Detroit held off Philadelphia and Los Angeles in close victories. The Lions posted their second-highest point total of the season in last Sunday’s 31-28 triumph over the Rams, as quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the last two weeks. Detroit is hosting Washington for the first time since 2010, while the Lions beat the Redskins in their previous matchup in 2013 in D.C. by a 27-20 count.

Best Bet: Washington +1 ½

Raiders at Jaguars (-1, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Silver and Black put up a thud last Sunday in a 26-10 home defeat to the Chiefs, as Oakland has been outgained in all six games this season. With running back Latavius Murray sidelined, the Raiders’ rushing attack was grounded by picking up only 64 yards. Murray is expected back in the lineup on Sunday, but he has also struggled out of the gate by gaining 235 yards in four games following 1,066 yards in 2015. However, Oakland has thrived in the road underdog role since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach last season by posting a perfect 8-0 ATS mark, including outright wins this season at New Orleans and Baltimore.

Jacksonville
Record: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The AFC South may be the worst division in football, but you can’t say it’s not competitive. Jacksonville is one way away from the .500 mark after starting 0-3 as the Jaguars held off the Bears last Sunday, 17-16. The Jags scored all 17 of their points in the fourth quarter in spite of putting up only 311 yards for the game. Jacksonville has yet to bust through the win column at home as its first victory over Indianapolis came in London, as the Jaguars have lost six of their past nine games at Everbank Field since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland +1

Chargers at Falcons (-6, 54 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

There probably isn’t a team in the NFL that has played to more exciting finishes than the Chargers. Five of San Diego’s six games have come down to the final minutes, including last Thursday’s 21-13 home victory over Denver as three-point underdogs. After building a 21-3 advantage, the Broncos rallied to score 10 points and had a chance to tie the game on the final play, but couldn’t convert a Hail Mary pass. The Chargers travel to the east coast for the first time this season as San Diego has yet to win away from Qualcomm Stadium, owning an 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS road mark.

Atlanta
Record: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 5-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Falcons are back at home for the first time since outlasting the Panthers in Week 4, as Atlanta split a pair of road games in tough environments at Denver and Seattle the last two weeks. Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker in Seattle in Week 6, but the Falcons managed a cover as seven-point underdogs for their fifth consecutive cover. The Falcons are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season, as Atlanta has cashed just once in 10 chalk opportunities since 2015. Atlanta cashed seven UNDERS in eight games at the Georgia Dome last season, but has eclipsed the OVER in both home contests this season.

Best Bet: San Diego +6

Patriots (-7, 47 ½) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

New England
Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/2

What a difference one player makes. Or just Tom Brady coming back from his four-game suspension. Brady has totaled 782 passing yards in two blowout victories over the Browns and Bengals, while throwing three touchdown passes in each win. Not only are the Patriots sitting atop the AFC East at 5-1, but New England has covered in all five victories. New England held off Pittsburgh in the 2015 season opener, 28-21 as 7 ½-point home favorites, as Brady carved up the Steelers’ defense for four touchdown tosses. The Pats have captured six of the previous eight meetings since January 2005, but New England fell in its past visit to Pittsburgh in 2011 by a 25-17 count.

Pittsburgh
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers will look to recover from last Sunday’s surprising 30-15 road favorite loss at Miami, as Pittsburgh also suffered a huge loss with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injuring his left knee. Big Ben will miss several weeks as backup Landry Jones is thrust into the starting role. Jones came in relief to beat the Cardinals as a home underdog last season, but lost in his only NFL start at Kansas City the following week. The Steelers own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record at Heinz Field this season, while posting a 4-0 ATS mark in its past four home underdog opportunities since 2013.

Best Bet: New England -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Ravens are 12-0-1 ATS (Against the Spread) since Jan 22, 2012 on the road after they had a turnover margin of at least +2 last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS since Nov 24, 2011 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-7 O/U since Nov 30, 2014 after a home game where Tom Brady threw for at least 300 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10 O/U since Dec 01, 2013 as a dog coming off a win where they covered.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 10-0 O/U since Dec 23, 2012 off a win as a dog where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-14 ATS when they are off a game as a home favorite and facing a team that has completed at least 65 percent of their passes, season-to-date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Seahawks at Cardinals
By Micah Roberts

The Cardinals come into Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks in a critical NFC West battle where it's almost a 'do or die' situation for Arizona. The Cardinals have already played four games at home to a 2-2 record meaning after this week that they'll have only three home field edges in the final nine games of the season. There's urgency, for sure.

Seattle looked extremely sluggish in its first two games scoring a total of 15 points, including a 9-3 loss at Los Angeles, but they've been rather efficient in winning their last three averaging 30 points a game. They've won and covered their last three in the desert, but the Cards come in off their best game of the season in a 28-3 Monday night home win against the Jets to even their record at 3-3.

LINE MOVEMENT

The South Point opened the Cardinals -2 on Tuesday following the Monday night win and on Friday they took a Seattle wager to drop them down to -1.5. The total has been steady at 43.5 since opening. Before the Jets win the Westgate SuperBook opened Arizona -1 Sunday night and Seattle money pushed them to pick 'em an hour before Monday night kickoff. Way back in April, CG Technology made the Cards -1 when posting lines for every game of the first 16 weeks.

WHO DO THE BETTORS LIKE?

The Seahawks have been a popular wager at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada. They've taken in 91 percent of the point-spread action on Seattle and 71 percent of the tickets written on them. Guess the public doesn't think much of the Cardinals getting back to .500, or them being at home? Just for a reference, the public ganging up on team usually means the weight is too heavy and the other team wins. But isolated night games have been very good to the public's intuition this season.

ROBERTS' NUMBER

I have Seattle rated 1.5-point better than Arizona on a neutral field and I give the Cardinals +2.5 for home field, which makes my number Arizona -1. The only reason Arizona doesn't get the full 3-point advantage is because they're playing a better team. You could argue the Arizona home edge against Seattle is worth only 1-point and I wouldn't have many come back support for the Cards. Let's face it, the Cardinals are 3-3 now on a two-game win streak, but wins against the Jets, 49ers and Buccaneers, who are a combined 4-13 between them, don't lend many argument points. Will that 2015 teams show up soon? Let's see it first before believing it will happen. Last week was a decent start in believing the Cards may soon be back to themselves.

RECENT MEETINGS

Seattle has won and covered three of the past four meetings, including a 36-6 Week 17 win last season when Arizona was listed as a sxi-point home favorite. At the time, the Cardinals still had something to play for regrading the playoffs conditional upon what Carolina did, but the game was over quick as Seattle jumped out to a 30-6 lead. The total managed to still stay 'under' the number (46.5). At the time, many oddsmakers had the Cardinals power rated No. 1 in the NFL. When the two teams met in November at Seattle, Arizona won 39-32 as a three-point underdog.

TRENDS

-- Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
-- Seattle is 1-6 ATS in last seven games following a win.
-- Seattle has stayed 'under' in 13 of their last 19 games against NFC West teams.

-- Arziona is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against losing teams.
-- Arizona has stayed 'under' total in last eight home games.
-- Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.

KEY INJURIES

Seattle DB Kam Chancellor (groin) is expected to miss while Arizona G Mike Iupati (ankle) is probable. Cardinals WR Josh Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

NEXT WEEK

Arizona gets a rematch at Carolina in Week 8, the team that ended the Cardinals 2015 season in the NFC Championship. The Westgate opened the 1-5 Panthers as 1-point favorites for their early lines, which come out each Tuesday. Seattle is 5.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

WEEK 10 BATTLE

We saw the matchup in the Super Bowl two years ago, and when they meet again in Week 10 the Westgate's updated Game of the Year numbers have New England listed as a six-point home favorite over the Seahawks. If we shoot ahead to Week 13. Seattle is seven-point home favorite against Carolina. The Panthers won at Seattle, 27-23, in Week 6 last season as seven-point 'dogs and beat them again, 31-24, at Carolina as 2.5-point favorites in the Divisional Playoff round.

NFC WEST ODDS

The Westgate opened Seattle as the 5/7 favorite to win the division and it's now 5/12. Arizona was 7/5 before the season, but their two-game win streak has them at 2/1 with respect given to them on the notion that the balance of the entire division swings with this Sunday night game.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Seattle is a 6/1 co-favorite among NFC teams to win the Super Bowl along with the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals are getting tons of respect for what they're capable of with 12/1 odds. Dallas is 10/1 and Green Bay is 12/1. The hot team in the NFC right now, Atlanta, is 20/1 to win their first Super Bowl. New England is the 5/2 overall favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: History says the Browns are the best NFL bet in Week 7
By JASON LOGAN

Life on the road is tough for NFL players. Private jets, plush hotels, endless room service, flocks of female fans… it all just sounds so terrible.

OK, maybe we’re not talking Bob Seger’s “Turn The Page” here, but the rigors of the road have effected a number of NFL teams, which have started the schedule winless away from the comforts of home heading into Week 7.

There are eight to be exact, and three of those squads sitting 0-3 SU or worse on the road are once again hitting the highway this Sunday: 0-4 Cleveland at Cincinnati, 0-3 San Diego at Atlanta, and 0-3 Indianapolis at Tennessee (Chicago fell to 0-4 with a loss at Green Bay Thursday).

Those three winless road teams are a combined 4-5-1 ATS away from home this season, which would be enough to sour most football bettors. However, there is a little sweet to balance out that bad taste.

Going back to 2011, NFL teams with a 0-3 SU record on the road are 22-11-1 ATS (9-24-1 SU) in their fourth road games of the schedule – covering 64 percent of the time. That bodes well for the Chargers +6 and Colts +3.

“But what about the 0-4 Browns?” you ask.

Rarely in this industry do you get a chance to say something positive about Cleveland (unless we’re talking Cavs or Indians), like Hillary Clinton struggling to say something nice about Donald Trump when prompted in the debate (His kids, I guess?). But thanks to an incredible long-running NFL betting trend, the Browns may just be the best bet on the board in Week 7 – if history has anything to say about it.

Teams starting the season 0-4 SU on the road are an astonishing 90-51-3 ATS (55-89 SU) in their fifth road game, covering at a 64 percent rate since 1985. And shrinking that sample size down to the past six NFL seasons, those 0-4 road teams are crushing the sportsbooks with a 16-6-1 ATS count, covering the spread at a 73 percent clip since 2011.

The Browns are getting 10.5 points on the road in Cincy and the Battle of Ohio has been kind to underdogs in past seasons, with pups posting a 13-4-1 ATS record in the last 18 meetings between these state foes.

If this road trend pays out again with Cleveland, NFL bettors should mark November 13 on their calendar: that’s when the Bears take their 0-4 road record to Tampa Bay in Week 10.

No Ben, but don't break

It's tough to recall a time in Ben Roethlisberger's storied career when he wasn't nursing some sort of ailment. The Steelers quarterback is the NFL's version of "Super" Dave Osborne and has taken major punishment, which is one part shoddy offensive line and one part balls to stand in the pocket and take the hit.

Big Ben is once again sidelined in Week 7, out two to six weeks after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee in last week's loss to the Dolphins that required surgery. That injury has shifted the Steelers from -1 to +7 when they host the Patriots Sunday. You Pittsburgh fans out there are undoubtedly upset but with Roethlisberger a frequent feature on the inactive list over the years, the Steelers know how to get the job done without No. 7 taking snaps.

Since 2005, the first season in which Roethlisberger was the full-time starter, he's missed 18 regular season games. And in those 18 games, Pittsburgh has posted an 11-5-2 ATS record (10-8 SU), covering 69 percent of the time without its star quarterback in the lineup. And it's not been the backup QB and the offense who pick up the slack (Landry Jones takes over Sunday), it's that vaunted Steelers defense making the difference.

Without Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh averages just over 21 points for and only 16.7 points against versus an average spread of +0.472 points. That uptick in defense has also helped produce an 8-10 Over/Under mark in those games. Sunday's total opened at 45.5 and is now up to 48 points.

London calling

The NFL takes to the rugby pitch when the Rams and Giants come to Twickenham Stadium in London Sunday (it’s a real place and not the spot where Harry Potter played Quidditch).

Favorites have been the profitable play when the NFL jumps the pond. The Jaguars beat the Colts 30-27 as 1-point chalk at Wembley Stadium back in Week 4, improving faves to 10-5 ATS all time in the International Series – 67 percent winners.

The cool angle this time around is that the game is being played at a rugby stadium and not on a soccer pitch, which is much harder, slicker and has shorter grass than a football/rugby field. Previous international games at Wembley have produced a 9-6 Over/Under count – 60 percent Overs – and an average combined score of 49.5 points on those fast tracks. But the softer and more sturdy Twickenham pitch could put the breaks on things. Sunday morning’s total is set at 44 points.

Mo’Minny, Mo’Money

The Vikings have a chance to eclipse the 2001-02 New England Patriots for the third longest ATS NFL winning streak, since 1985.

Minnesota has covered in 10 straight outings, going back to last season, putting them on par with the Cinderella Pats, who capped their ATS stretch with an upset over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI as 14-point underdogs.

If you started with a $100 wager on the Vikings back on December 10, 2015 at the standard -110 juice, and rolled your total returns over in each of those ATS wins you’d be up $64,306 heading into Week 7, where Minnesota is a 3-point road favorite at Philadelphia.

Next up on the list of all-time ATS winning streaks are the 1992-93 Chargers (13 ATS wins in a row) and the 1985-86 Patriots (14 ATS wins in a row).

Expert advice

It would seem that the new Dyson vacuum cleaner I received for my birthday isn’t the only thing that sucks hard in my house.

If you’ve been following my weekly picks in this column each week, you probably want to punch me in a face. Well, I want to punch me too. And it’s not just those column picks sucking either. My bankroll is better suited for dollar store shopping than making wagers and I'm 37th - the same birthday I just celebrated - in my 40-man pick'em pool.

But instead of going all Fight Club office scene ("I am Jack's smirking revenge") on my own ass, I reached out to some guys who do this shit for a living, who offered up some tips on how to right the ship and bust a bad, bad, betting slump.

Here’s what they had to say…

“My slump buster advice is very simple: Take one day off. Get drunk or stoned - your intoxicant of choice. Get it all out. Come back the next day and get back to work. Sometimes, you have to take a break and do something different for a day.” – Teddy Covers

“There's no doubt that the NFL is the toughest sport to handicap consistently. For myself, when I delve into a loss ATS it can be as simple as jumping on a play when there was no true value. Find the value and the wins will come.” – Zack Cimini

“My best advice is to cut the quantity of your plays in half and wait until you re-establish a new winning rhythm. Like the teams themselves, handicapping goes in cycles. Once you’re back on track you can start playing again with confidence. Patience is truly a virtue during cold spells.” – Marc Lawrence

“Stay true to what you know. If you have had success in the past then you will have success again in the future, so do not stray from your normal techniques. A lot of the time, people abandon their betting strategies and the next thing you know, they’re digging an even deeper hole. And don't chase.” – Matt Fargo

So in short: Stay true. Cut quantity. Find value. And, of course, take a day off to get bombed (you can tell Teddy lives in Vegas. Can I crash on your couch?).

Thanks guys.

Sharps like…

Minnesota. You don’t have to be a wiseguy to see the Vikings are making money. Sharps have moved Minnesota from +1 to -3 at Philadelphia. Also drawing sharp money in Week 7 are Tennessee and Denver, according to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology.

Biggest move…

Outside of the Patriots-Steelers spread shifting eight points, from Pittsburgh -1 to +7 due to Roethlisberger’s injury, the biggest line move on the Week 7 board was the Eagles opening as 1-point home chalk versus the Vikings, with that spread shifting to Minnesota -3 due to smart action.

Biggest sweat…

Due to that smart money on Minny, books are going to need the Eagles to come through at home to avoid taking a bath.

Banker game…

Texans-Broncos. "We will need to win a few of the early games (Sunday), or the Monday night game will be a big sweat, since both the pros and the public are on the Broncos,” says Simbal.

Injury to watch

Tyler Eifert, TE Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have missed Eifert like Saturday Night Live is going to miss Donald Trump’s presidential campaign come November 9. Cincinnati’s talented TE hasn’t played since undergoing offseason ankle surgery and then injuring his back in training on October 3, and it shows in the Bengals’ red-zone numbers.

Cincy has scored touchdowns in just 42 percent of its trips inside the 20-yard line (fifth lowest in the NFL) compared to a 65 percent TD red-zone rate last season (fifth best) when Eifert hauled in 13 touchdown catches.

Head coach Marvin Lewis gave classic coach speak when it came to Eifert’s status after he was limited in practice this week, telling reporters “I think he feels good about everything and we’ll see how we are with everybody else.”

Sooooo... is he playing or not coach? Keep an eye on Eifert's status before kickoff.

We know how to pick’em

As we do about this time every week, we take the pick’em game (or the game with the shortest spread) and turn off the handicapping side of our brains in favor of a more primal instinct: bet on the team with the hottest cheerleaders.

There are a few options on the board in Week 7, but Washington at Detroit (-1) gets the nod simply to celebrate the fact that the Lions finally have an official cheerleading squad for the first time since 1972.

Sunday menu

With the London game on the sked, my 11-year-old son will be up and ready to watch football at 9:30 a.m. ET. And he’ll also be asking for breakfast, because he’s 11 and has a pre-teen appetite that would rival Vince Wilfork’s dietary habits. Whether it’s breakfast, brunch or dinner, this should fill anyone’s hollow leg (and it’s from the BBC! Bloody good!).

Easy (money) like Sunday morning

As mentioned above, my Sunday selections have served as the “Five Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique" to my bankroll all season, and that’s not a good thing. I’m 1-5 ATS, and hoping to turn that around given all that advice… I was given... Here goes:

I’m taking the Raiders +1.5 over Jacksonville. Yeah, Oakland got roughed up by Kansas City at home in Week 6 and has to travel all the way across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start. But this is Jack Del Rio’s revenge.

The former Jaguars coach was in Jacksonville for nine seasons before getting fired in 2011 and will feel right at home on the sidelines at EverBank Field. He’s made this Raiders team road tough, with a 3-0 SU/ATS mark away from home including a similar West-to-East trip when they beat Baltimore 28-27 as 3.5-point road pups in Week 4. You never want to look bad in front of your ex, so I expect the Silver and Black to give a little extra for their head coach this Sunday.

"It’s going to be exciting for him," former Jacksonville and current Oakland safety Reggie Nelson told The Mercury News. "I’m pretty sure we’ll put on a show for him."

Pick: Oakland +1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 7

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 7

1) Minnesota -2.5 (751)
2) San Diego +6.5 (599)
3) Tennessee -2.5 (562)
4) New England -7 (506)
5) Miami +3 (489)

SuperContest Week 6 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Chicago (+7.5) 89 Green Bay (-7.5) 105
N.Y. Giants (-3) 216 Los Angeles (+3) 287
Minnesota (-2.5) 751 Philadelphia (+2.5) 324
New Orleans (+6.5) 291 Kansas City (-6.5) 302
Washington (+1.5) 349 Detroit (-1.5) 236
Cleveland (+10) 209 Cincinnati (-10) 169
Buffalo (-3) 278 Miami (+3) 489
Oakland (+1) 413 Jacksonville (-1) 260
Indianapolis (+2.5) 158 Tennessee (-2.5) 562
Baltimore (PK) 313 N.Y. Jets (PK) 268
San Diego (+6.5) 599 Atlanta (-6.5) 206
Tampa Bay (-2) 199 San Francisco (+2) 263
New England (-7) 506 Pittsburgh (+7) 210
Seattle (+1.5) 412 Arizona (-1.5) 286
Houston (+7.5) 112 Denver (-7.5) 343


Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David

Week 6 Recap

The ‘over’ went 9-6 last week but some of those decisions were very fortunate to cash and there were four games that had late touchdowns scored in the final minutes to crush ‘under’ bettors.

Cleveland scored 13 points in the final two minutes against a Tennessee defense that’s been incredible in the second-half this season. Along with the game going ‘over’ the number, the Browns also earned the backdoor cover too with the late TDs.

The Giants and Ravens went back-and-forth in the fourth quarter and two late touchdowns in the last three minutes gave ‘over’ winners an improbable victory.

The Sunday Night finale between the Texans and Colts was probably the toughest to stomach if you had Indy or the ‘under’ in that game. Houston forced overtime with two touchdowns late and earned the win with a field goal in the extra session.

And I’m guessing most bettors had New England and the ‘over’ on Sunday in Tom Brady’s home debut and a meaningless TD with 52 seconds hurt bettors taking the ‘under’ while the public drilled the exacta.

Through six weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 49-42-1.

Quick Notes

It’s still early in the season but NFL ratings are down this season and pundits are pointing to a variety of factors. My argument for the decline would lean to the actual product on the field and the numbers back it up. The top five scoring offensive units from last season have watched their production decrease while the bottom five have all improved.

NFL Points Per Game (2015-2016)
Team 2015 (PPG/Rank) 2016 (PPG/Rank)
Carolina 31.1 (1) 26.8 (6)
Arizona 29.4 (2) 25.5 (10)
New England 28.3 (3) 24.8 (13)
NY Giants 26.2 (4) 19.3 (25)
Cincinnati 25.6 (5) 18.2 (29)
Team 2015 (PPG/Rank) 2016 (PPG/Rank)
San Francisco 14.9 (32) 21.2 (19)
Dallas 17.2 (31) 26.5 (8)
Cleveland 17.4 (30) 26.5 (26)
Los Angeles 17.4 (29) 18.3 (28)
Tennessee 18.7 (28) 20 (22)


The Redskins, Falcons and Colts have all seen the ‘over’ start 5-1 this season behind solid quarterback play and average defensive units.

The Eagles (3.8 PPG) and Vikings (5.4 PPG) are ranked first and third respectively in second-half points per game, which has produced identical 4-1 ‘under’ marks in the final 30 minutes of their games. The pair meet Sunday and not surprisingly it’s the lowest total (39 ½) on the board.

Dating back to last season, the Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 on the road when the total is listed in the fifties. This week’s number for their game at Arrowhead versus the Chiefs is in that neighborhood.

Rise and Shine

The NFL International Series heads back to London, England this week as the Giants and Rams square off from Twickenham Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 8-7 in the first 15 games from the United Kingdom and that includes the ‘over’ between the Jaguars and Colts in Week 4.

New York and Los Angeles are looking at total hovering between 43 and 44 points. The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their divisional matchups while the ‘over’ is 3-0 in other games and the defense has allowed 32, 30 and 31 points in those games. The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season but the defense has surrendered 24.8 points per game in their last four games.

The Giants played in the inaugural game from London in the 2007 season and they beat the Dolphins 13-10. The Rams made an overseas trip in 2012 when they were in St. Louis and they were hammered 45-7 by the Patriots.

Divisional Action

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and five of the last six encounters between the pair. As stated above, the Bengals offense has taken a serious dip this season (18.8 PPG) compared to last year’s numbers (25.6 PPG). Coincidentally, they’ll face former offensive coordinator Hugh Green in this week’s matchup but the Browns defense (29.3 PPG, 403 YPG) remains suspect.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills lit up the Dolphins last season for 41 and 33 points as the ‘over’ connected very easily in both contests. This year’s Buffalo team has won four straight after starting 0-2 and the success has been defense (17.2 PPG) and running the football (166.5 YPG). The issue for Buffalo is running back LeSean McCoy could miss Sunday’s game. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-point performance last week against a beat-up Pittsburgh club but that effort appears to be an anomaly. Miami’s offense is ranked last in first downs per games and 25th in total yards (332.2)

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings and the Colts have averaged 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Colts QB Andrew Luck has never lost to the Titans but they’ve also picked him off (7 INTs) more than any other team in his career and that unit is much improved this season.

Seattle at Arizona: (See Below)

Coast-to-Coast

I believe that trends can help your handicapping and while it’s not the “be-all and end-all” for every matchup, some angles deserve extra attention when they’re producing great results. In my Week 4 edition of Total Talk, I touched on West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone and how the ‘over’ produced solid results in those games.

In 2015, those contests saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and this year’s results have been perfect with a 6-0 record to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44 ½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40 ½
Week 4 - Oakland 28 at Baltimore 27 - Over 45
Week 4 - Seattle 27 at N.Y. Jets 17 - Over 40
Week 6 - San Francisco 16 at Buffalo 45 - Over 44

We have two games on tap for Week 7 where the above situation applies and both games have high numbers posted.

Oakland at Jacksonville (47 ½)
San Diego at Atlanta (54 ½)

Under the Lights

We’ve had 19 primetime games this season and the ‘under’ has gone 11-8-1, which includes the result from the past Thursday between Chicago and Green Bay.

Seattle at Arizona: This is a very tough total to handicap because neither team has been consistent this season. They’ve both looked sluggish at times and blowout victories came against weaker foes. Arizona’s offense is down this season (see above) and the club has actually been a great ‘under’ bet at home (8-1-1) dating back to last season. Plus, Seattle’s defense (8.6 PPG) has been ridiculous on the road in its last seven regular season games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-2. What could have you leaning ‘over’ is the Russell Wilson factor. The QB is 5-3 overall and Seattle has averaged 30 PPG during this stretch, which includes 32 and 36-point efforts last season.

Houston at Denver: Low total (40 ½) for the MNF matchup and it’s a solid number just based on the defensive numbers for both the Broncos (18 PPG) and Texans (21.2 PPG). Plus, Houston has managed to scored 13 total points in two road games against quality completion (Patriots, Vikings) and hard to imagine a big spot here. The Broncos are playing with rest and the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games following the bye week.

Fearless Predictions

Despite losing my two total plays, I was fortunate to hit the team total and teaser wager (luckily) which kept the weekly ($20) losses low and overall bankroll ($430) in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Pittsburgh 47

Best Under: Buffalo-Miami 44 ½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 48 Minnesota-Philadelphia
Under 59 Washington-Detroit
Under 49 ½ Houston-Denver

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Not a Patriots or Steelers fan in the least. But I like watching good NFL action, and this Sunday's game between New England and Pittsburgh I circled right when the schedule was released in late April. These looked to be the two best teams in the AFC with future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, who have combined for six Super Bowl rings. The winner here would have a big upper hand for the top seed in the AFC playoffs.

That latter statement still will be true, but sadly Big Ben will miss at least this week with a knee injury suffered in Week 6. That's a huge break for New England, as this could have been its only game remaining as an underdog. I actually think the Pats would have been slight favorites considering how they looked last Sunday and how Pittsburgh did, but you get my point.

I see no way the Patriots aren't the AFC's top seed now. They are the only one-loss team in the AFC. True, next week's game in Buffalo won't be easy. But the only other games on the schedule I give them a chance of losing are Week 10 at home vs. Seattle (which I doubt since the Pats are off their bye) and Week 15 in Denver.

The AFC North race is now wide open presuming a Steelers loss in this one and not knowing Big Ben's timetable. All four division teams lost in Week 6. Pittsburgh is up a game on Baltimore and two on Cincinnati, but surely the Bengals will win Sunday vs. Cleveland. The Steelers are still -250 favorites to win the North.

Patriots at Steelers Betting Story Lines

Could Brady actually win MVP honors playing just 12 games? He has looked absolutely fantastic in his two since returning from suspension. In last week's blowout win of the Bengals, Brady completed 82.9 percent of his passes for 376 yards and three touchdowns. His rating is absurd 135.5 in completing 76 percent for six scores and no picks in becoming the first in NFL history to reach those marks in a player's first two games of a season. I do think Brady knew about those deflated footballs, but it's pretty enjoyable watching him stick it to the NFL with his play. He also became the fourth member of the 5,000-completion club in that Cincinnati win. All three of New England's quarterbacks have yet to throw an interception through six games this season. That has happened only twice before, last in 2008 by the Redskins.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick cracks me up. He is so fed up with the NFL-allowed tablets not working properly on the sideline (in his mind) that he said this week that he's done using the technology and will stick with old-school pictures.

Roethlisberger was my pick to win his first NFL MVP this season, but that's probably out the window with him expected to miss this week and then at least Week 9 in Baltimore following Pittsburgh's bye week (new reports on Wednesday are indicating it could be 4-6 weeks). He had meniscus surgery on Monday, but it was the most minor kind. He basically played through the injury in Sunday's puzzling 30-15 loss in Miami in which Big Ben had his worst game of the year in throwing for only 189 yards with two picks. He will fail to play all 16 regular-season games for the 10th time in his 13 seasons.

So now it's Landry Jones' team. Good college QB at Oklahoma but not so much as a pro. I think it's fair to presume that Jones won't be throwing it 40 times as Steelers coach Mike Tomlin had this to say about Jones this week: "A shootout is not the type of game we're looking for. We have to work to possess the ball on offense." In 2015 spot duty, Jones went 32-of-55 for 513 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. He won a start vs. Arizona but lost one in Kansa City. Thus, expect plenty of Le'Veon Bell and No. 2 tailback DeAngelo Williams. New England's defense is stronger against the run (12th in the NFL, 552 yards) than the pass (22nd, 1,530 yards). If you have Antonio Brown on your fantasy team, his value is going to plummet for a while.

The Steelers will again be without defensive end Cam Heyward this week, while linebacker Ryan Shazier and receiver Markus Wheaton are in question.

Patriots at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

New England is an 8-point favorite (+115) with a total of 45.5. On the moneyline, the Patriots are -320 and Steelers +260. On the alternate lines, the Pats are -7.5 (+110), -7 (-110) and -6.5 (-130). New England is 5-1 against the spread this season (2-0 on road) and 2-4 "over/under" (0-2 on road). Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS (3-0 at home) and 2-4 O/U (1-2 at home).

The Patriots have covered just two of their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. They haven't covered their past four in Week 7. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a loss. They are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The over is 10-3 in New England's past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 8-2 in Pittsburgh's past 10. The underdog is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Patriots at Steelers Betting Prediction

These teams opened the 2015 season in Foxboro in the annual NFL Kickoff Game and New England won 28-21. Brady threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns, three of them to Rob Gronkowski. Roethlisberger threw for 351 with a touchdown and pick. Bell was out suspended for that one, with Williams rushing 21 times for 127 yards. Brown caught nine for 133 and a TD.

I would have taken the Steelers here with Roethlisberger, but there's just no way I can with Jones. Give the 6.5-point alternate line, however. I'm going over the total -- even though the Steelers will regress offensively -- because Brady is in a zone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vikings (5-0) at Eagles (3-2)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Sam Bradford goes back to Philadelphia on Sunday for the first time since the Eagles traded him to the Minnesota Vikings, and he is bringing all of his knowledge of rookie starter Carson Wentz and the offensive system of first-year coach Doug Pederson.

The Vikings (5-0) are on top of the NFC and Bradford has won all four of his starts since replacing Shaun Hill under center in Week 2. Bradford landed on his feet and said he has recovered from the ego bruising that comes from being traded for the second time in three years. The Eagles decided to hitch their wagon to Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, and pulled the trigger on a deal that brought a first-round pick in 2017 in return.

"You could tell early on, he wants to be great," Bradford said of Wentz. "I think it showed up on the field."

While Wentz is winning, Pederson said Wednesday his plan was to fully redshirt Wentz in 2016, using Bradford as his No. 1 quarterback and backup Chase Daniel in case of emergency. The No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams, has not yet played this season.

"My plan was for him to sit the whole year," Pederson said.

That changed when general manager Rick Spielman and the Vikings' front office collectively signed off on forfeiting multiple picks, including the first-rounder next April, for Bradford. The Eagles had declared Bradford off the market publicly after signing him to a two-year, $35 million contract. But Bradford asked for a trade when Wentz was drafted and only relented when it became evident he wasn't moving despite tepid interest from Denver and the New York Jets.

"Initially, I was a little shocked (the trade) was going to be a possibility," Pederson said.

The Sept. 3 trade also netted the Eagles a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018.

Defending Wentz, who has completed 65 percent of his passes for 1,186 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception with a passer rating of 99.9, might be easier for Pederson than protecting him. With right tackle Lane Johnson starting a 10-game suspension, the Redskins attacked rookie replacement Halapoulivaati Vaitai with a variety of blitzes and twice outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan beat him on pure effort for sacks of Wentz.

The Vikings have 19 sacks and lead the NFL with a plus-11 turnover differential. But Pederson, who rarely used a tight end to help Vaitai last week, said the Eagles will make adjustments and Vaitai will be better.

"Was it perfect? Was it pretty? No. Were there assignment errors? Yes," Pederson said. "And I'm not going to stand here and point the finger at 'Big V' because that's not what happened. There were enough mistakes all around in this football game that cost us this game."

The Vikings are one of the league's biggest surprises. Not because Bradford is off to a great start -- six touchdowns and zero interceptions, a 70.4 completion percentage and 109.8 passer rating -- but because personnel issues have caused a weekly juggling act by coach Mike Zimmer and Spielman. With 10 players on injured reserve, including starters Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson and Ryan Kalil, the offense has been functional even when leading receiver Stefon Diggs was unavailable for Week 5.

"We still have a long season left," Spielman said. "I would say we're pretty happy with the retuns we've got at this point."

Credit goes beyond the adjustments made to the roster since the start of the season for the Vikings.

Minnesota leads the NFL in defense, allowing 12.6 points per game, thanks to heavy investments in the core of Zimmer's defense, including first-round picks Harrison Smith at safety, Xavier Rhodes at cornerback, linebacker Anthony Barr and defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

How much Bradford might help the Vikings prep for Wentz and diagnose what is on Pederson's play sheet is "overrated" according to Zimmer. Pederson worked himself into a huff on Monday when he said "only one person" has seen the entire playbook. That person is Pederson.

"Honestly, I think all that stuff's overrated," Zimmer said, with a qualifier that he has grilled Bradford for intel on the Eagles. "I've looked at and people have left stuff in locker rooms when they've played us before and I can't even decipher it. I don't think he was there very long with Doug, really, he wasn't there during the spring and he wasn't there all that long. I think you go watch the tape and do the best you can."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Redskins (4-2) at Lions (3-3)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

DETROIT -- Jay Gruden would like to see his defense produce more turnovers. As long as that unit remains stingy about giving up points, the Washington Redskins coach isn't going to fret over the lack of takeaways.

The Redskins (4-2) forced only one turnover over the last two games but they haven't allowed an offensive touchdown over the last seven quarters.

That allowed them to extend their winning streak to four games.

They will be seeking their first five-game streak since 2012 when they play at Detroit on Sunday.

"It's been good," Gruden said of his defense. "The first two victories, we got a lot of takeaways and gave up a lot of yards. The last two weeks, we haven't given up a lot of yards but we haven't gotten any takeaways.

"Imagine what we could do if we don't give up a lot of yards and we get takeaways. We'd be pretty good. But I'm happy with the way they're playing. We're not giving up big plays, momentum-swinging type plays."

Many Redskins fans weren't happy with the play of quarterback Kirk Cousins during the first two games. The catcalls have quieted somewhat during the winning streak, in which Cousins has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions.

One of those turnovers was returned for a touchdown by Philadelphia last Sunday but the Redskins still emerged with a 27-20 victory.

Washington achieved offensive balance in that game, rolling up 493 total yards, and hope that trend continues. Matt Jones led three running backs who combined for 231 rushing yards with a career-high 135 on 16 carries.

"If we can put up 500 yards of offense 16 times, we'd be a pretty good offense," said Cousins, the former Michigan State star who will be playing in his home state for the first time as a pro.

"There's always going to be plays where you feel like you could have had 600 yards of offense or 700 yards of offense, but we did some good things. We ran the ball well and made the plays we had to make but we're always going to go back and say, 'How can we be better?'"

The Redskins can get off to a 3-0 start on the road for the first time since 1999 with a win. They're also shooting for their sixth straight road victory, something they haven't done since 1991.

They hope tight end Jordan Reed can return after missing the Eagles game with a concussion.

Detroit (3-3), which will complete a stretch of three home games, has won two straight on late field goals by Matt Prater.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will be playing in his 100th career game, has thrown seven touchdown passes over the last two games while completing 75 percent of his passes without an interception.

Stafford's 14 touchdown passes tie him for third place in the league but he shrugs off praise over his recent outings.

"It's the same way I feel when people say I'm terrible and I'm the reason we're losing; I don't pay too much attention to it," he said. "We're winning games because we have talented players on this team.

"On the offensive side of the ball, my job is just to get the ball in their hands and let them go. They've been doing that the last couple of weeks."

The Lions required fourth-quarter comebacks in all of their victories, which Stafford considers a mental edge.

"We're a tested team," he said. "We haven't come out on the right end of all those, like we wish we could have, but that's what the NFL is all about. Games come down to the fourth quarter a majority of the time.

"No question we'd like to be up 21 in the fourth quarter of every game but it doesn't happen that way. There are evenly-matched teams in this league and you've got to go out there and make the plays to win the game."

Detroit hopes that its No. 1 running back, Theo Riddick, will return this week after missing the 31-28 victory over Los Angeles last Sunday with an ankle injury.

The teams haven't played since 2013, when the Lions pulled out a 27-20 victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Giants (3-3) at Rams (3-3)

Date: October 23, 2016 9:30 AM EDT

The soccer nets all over England have taken a beating through the years from players like David Beckham, "bending" shots into their fabric.

Kicking nets all over the NFL have been abused by Odell Beckham Jr. -- hitting, kicking them and even proposing to one. David is an international soccer star who got his start in London, England. Odell Jr. hopes to "bend it" like his namesake as his team, the New York Giants, crosses the Atlantic to face the Los Angeles Rams, designated the "home" team.

Hopefully, there is enough column space in the United Kingdom tabloids for both Beckhams and their antics.

The Rams haven't been back in Los Angeles all week but will still be playing a home game this Sunday against the Giants. The game will take place in London, England, and is one of the "home" games the Rams sacrificed in Los Angeles to expand their brand globally.

This is the second of three NFL games that will be played in the United Kingdom in 2016, but the first time in Twickenham Stadium, home of the English rugby team.

Both teams enter the matchup 3-3 but with different tastes in their mouths as they travel overseas. The Rams are coming off an embarrassing defensive performance against the Detroit Lions in their 31-28 loss. This once-vaunted defense gave up 10 straight fourth-quarter points after the surprisingly potent offense had spotted them a seven-point lead.

The Giants head to England on Thursday riding high on the backs of one of the best offensive performances in 2016 by quarterback Eli Manning and Beckham Jr.

Their offensive production led to a 27-23 come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens. In that game, Manning threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns. Beckham Jr. scored two of those touchdowns, including the -winning 66-yarder while pulling in 222 yards receiving, a career high.

But his aforementioned antics have drawn the ire of coach Ben McAdoo.

Beckham Jr. drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty after the winning touchdown grab when he ripped off his helmet in celebration.

That penalty didn't end up hurting the Giants, but McAdoo chided his fiery receiver after Beckham compounded his behavior by staging a mock marriage proposal to the kicking net, the same one Beckham slammed two weeks before.

"He (Beckham) came up to me right after, we had a discussion. We can't have (penalties)," McAdoo said. "He knows that and he wanted to fire up our kick coverage team and defense. He knows we can't have it. We need to keep our focus on the ballgame."

Manning, Beckham Jr. and the entire Giants offense will be going up against an up-and-down Rams defense that brought their own antics to the end of the game against the Lions.

While the Lions were in "victory" formation, one in which the quarterback simply takes the snap and kneels down, the Rams' defensive line fired off the football. This brought negative national attention to the team but had coach Jeff Fisher passing the buck after the game.

"This approach did not come from the sideline; it was not a call, it was not something that we practiced or that we preached," he said. "I think it was a byproduct of frustration. If the game's over, the game's over, pay respect to your opponent.

"You guys (the media and fans) don't realize all the stuff that goes on inside, up front between the offensive linemen and the defensive linemen. We'll address it and it's unlikely that it'll happen again."

The Rams' defense did not get any pressure on Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the secondary allowed wide receiver Golden Tate to gain 165 yards.

The Los Angeles defensive front could be without Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers against the Giants. The secondary has injuries to cornerbacks Lamarcus Joyner and Trumaine Johnson.

That could make for a long day matched up against the Giants' high-powered offense.

The Rams' passing attack was incredible against the Lions, and quarterback Case Keenum had a career day. Keenum threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns, and at one point he completed 19 straight passes. Wide receiver Kenny Britt accounted for seven catches for 136 yards and both of Keenum's scores.

The Rams need to keep that formula going against a Giants passing defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL and gives up an average of 266.8 yards per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Browns (0-6) at Bengals (2-4)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Cleveland Browns are the lone remaining winless team in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals are part of a different list -- considered one of the league's biggest underachievers.

The Bengals (2-4) have dropped four of their past five games and attempt to break out of their doldrums when they host the lowly Browns (0-6) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).

Cincinnati expects to be part of the postseason for the sixth consecutive season but the slow start threatens to halt that streak.

The Bengals edged the New York Jets in their opener before things disintegrated. Three of Cincinnati's losses have been by 12 or more points, including last Sunday's 35-17 setback against the New England Patriots.

"We're kind of behind right now, with the way this season has gone, and we've got to get it back on track," quarterback Andy Dalton said. "You can't try to do too much, you've just got to play your game and do that to the best of your ability. You can't try to do more than you need to. That's the biggest thing: you can't press."

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has been preaching that there's no reason to panic. He outlined to his squad to just stay the course and, well, play better.

"We have to play good fundamental football," Lewis said. "We have to out-play the other team, out-execute them, out-score them and not have negative plays. Our margin for error has not been very good thus far this season so we have to create our breaks."

First-year Cleveland coach Hue Jackson, a close friend of Lewis who spent the past four seasons on Cincinnati's coaching staff, can relate to a lack of breaks.

The Browns are on their third quarterback in rookie Cody Kessler after losing Robert Griffin III (shoulder) and Josh McCown (collarbone) to injuries. Cleveland suffered a big defensive loss when free safety Jordan Poyer suffered a lacerated kidney in last Sunday's 28-26 loss to Tennessee.

"He was playing well," Jackson said of Poyer. "It's is a blow for us because he is one of our better players."

Kessler enjoyed a strong performance in the loss to the Titans by passing for 336 yards and two touchdowns.

The former USC standout was a third-round draft pick due to questions about his arm strength. He said he isn't concerned with what the critics say but is fixated on how to help end Cleveland's longstanding losing ways -- which includes nine consecutive losses and 16 of 17 dating back to October of last season.

"I take it very personal, as do a lot of guys in this locker room," Kessler said of the losses. "It just makes you compete that much harder and keep working harder because we have been really close in some of these games.

"We just have to put together a full game and I have to put together a full game and a complete game and just continue to keep working. Obviously, it will get to you, but you can't let it knock you down. You can't let it knock you back. You have to stay positive and keep moving forward."

The Browns are averaging 110.7 yards per game on the ground but have struggled the past two games -- averaging just 33.5 yards in losses to the Titans and New England Patriots.

Cincinnati ranks ninth in defending the run (89.8) and dodged a bullet when controversial linebacker Vontaze Burfict was fined $75,000 on Wednesday but didn't draw a suspension for an incident against New England last Sunday.

Burfict was disciplined for delivering an apparent stomp to Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount during a pileup of players. Burfict reportedly is appealing the fine and Lewis is supporting him.

"We were not in the wrong here, in my opinion," Lewis said. "And it's unfortunate. That's what I have told and stood on and will continue to."

Burfict missed the first three games of this season due to a suspension for his repeated violations of safety rules, including his actions during last season's playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap (four sacks) has played well for the Bengals, who will look to silence a Cleveland offense averaging 18.8 points, tied for 26th in the NFL.

Cincinnati's offense is faring worse at 18.2 points per game (29th) despite Dalton ranking third in the NFL with 1,757 passing yards and receiver A.J. Green corralling an NFL-best 42 catches.

The Bengals could have standout tight end Tyler Eifert at their disposal for the first time this season. Eifert, who caught 13 touchdown passes last season, returned to practice on Wednesday after missing the first six games due to ankle and back injuries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Saints (2-3) at Chiefs (3-2)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

There's a question that many in the NFL, Kansas City and even within the walls of Arrowhead Stadium want to see answered Sunday.

Kansas City (3-2) hosts the New Orleans Saints (2-3) this weekend and it's unclear which version of the Chiefs will show up for the game.

Will it be the team that got smashed in a 29-point loss to Pittsburgh nearly three weeks ago? Or will it be the squad that rebounded after a bye week and last Sunday in Oakland dominated a then 4-1 Raiders team, winning by 16 points and controlling all three phases of the game?

Offense and defense have been up and down for the Chiefs. Ahead are 11 games and a wide-open path to first place in the AFC West.

"What we're trying to do is not be that yo-yo team that plays great and then they don't play too good," veteran linebacker Derrick Johnson said. "We have a personality and that's fear nothing and attack everything. That's how we should play every game."

They'll need to play the Saints with no fear and aggression. New Orleans has won their last two games and possesses one of the NFL's most productive offenses, led by veteran quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints are averaging 413.4 yards per game and rank No. 2 in the league behind only Atlanta.

New Orleans is the league's top passing team, with an average of 335.4 yards per game from Brees to a wealth of receivers, led by Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and rookie Michael Thomas.

"I think there are times in a season when you gain momentum and generally it's a little further out than where we are at right now with wins and losses," Saints coach Sean Payton said. "We've had runs here in a number of seasons; I don't know at what point you say they have some momentum, but I think it would be a little too early right now."

The Chiefs' defense knows they'll have their hands full with Brees. The Kansas City unit has undergone a few changes since last Sunday. Two starters -- defensive end Allen Bailey (pectoral muscle) and inside linebacker Justin March-Lillard (hand) -- went to injured reserve after the victory over the Raiders.

Plus, starting cornerback Phillip Gaines (knee) continues to be bothered by a knee injury that he suffered early in the 2015 season. His status for Sunday is very questionable.

Still, there are enough playmakers on the field -- Johnson, Tamba Hali, Dontari Poe, Eric Berry and especially Marcus Peters -- that the defense can put up a good fight against any offense, or at least any that doesn't have Big Ben running the attack.

"I see them as a really stout group," Brees said. "I see them as a really big front that can apply some pressure to the quarterback. I see a secondary that really has a lot of cover guys.

"You've got safeties all over the field that can cover, you have corners that can cover and you have linebackers that can cover. It seems like the defense has been pretty opportunistic this year. They've been able to take the ball away quite a bit."

As good as Brees and the New Orleans offense has been, the defense has struggled and ranks next to last in yards allowed (419.4 per game average.) The Saints have given up 168 points, or 33.3 per game.

Against Carolina last Sunday, the Saints had 13 hits on the quarterback and knocked down nine passes but still gave up 38 points. Luckily for the Saints, they scored 41 points for the victory.

"There were just a lot of plays that they made that were directly related to us playing the wrong technique," Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro said. "One time you don't use your help, or play the right leverage and you are giving up an out with a guy right in front of you that is not acceptable.

"If you keep doing that in the future, it is going to cost you some games. We need to get that fixed now. It is an easy thing to fix, but it needs to be fixed now."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raiders (4-2) at Jaguars (2-3)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- One third-year quarterback has his team tied for first in the AFC West.

Another has an opportunity to put his team squarely into the thick of things in the AFC South.

The development of Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles will be on display Sunday at EverBank Field in a game between two teams trying to take a step toward snapping long playoff droughts.

"We'll always be tied together because we were in the same class," Bortles said. "Derek's an awesome guy, obviously an awesome quarterback. (He's) been doing a good job."

Both Carr and Bortles were selected in the 2014 draft by teams needing a fresh start after years of losing -- and losing big.

Carr went 36th overall to a Raiders franchise that hasn't achieved a winning record since losing Super Bowl XXXVII following the 2002 season.

Oakland was 29-51 in the five seasons prior to drafting Carr.

Bortles went third overall to a Jaguars franchise that had been even worse during that time frame.

Jacksonville was 26-54 from 2009-2013 and hasn't made a trip to the playoffs since the 2007 season.

So far in their young careers, Carr and Bortles have given their franchises reasons to be optimistic about the future.

Carr has the Raiders (4-2) tied with the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos for first in the AFC West and is proving to be a dependable quarterback who limits turnovers and can take advantage of the dynamic players he has around him.

He is tied for fifth in the league with 12 passing touchdowns and has the fewest interceptions (three) of any quarterback with at least 225 attempts.

Carr is completing 66.5 percent of his passes and averaging 7.1 yards per attempt.

"He is impressive," Jaguars coach Gus Bradley said. "We had him at the Senior Bowl. "His demeanor, his competitiveness. He is very, very accurate. He has the ability to extend plays.

"We watched him today extending plays, making big plays down field. You talk about a guy that is playing with a lot of poise and confidence right now. He is playing at a real high level."

The season hasn't been as smooth for Bortles, but he managed to play well enough during victories over Indianapolis in London and at Chicago in the last two games to keep the Jaguars (2-3) within 1.5 games of the Houston Texans.

Bortles has eight passing touchdowns with seven interceptions this season while being sacked 14 times as part of an offense that has seemed to regress.

The Jaguars were 14th in the league in scoring last season (23.5 points per game) but have tumbled to 21st (20.2 points per game) with inconsistent play.

Jacksonville has season a big improvement from its revamped defense, led by a pair of rookies.

Cornerback Jalen Ramsey knocked away a pass from Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery in the fourth quarter to seal a victory for the Jaguars last week. That came after defensive end Yannick Ngakoue earlier notched his fourth sack of the season -- joining Terrell Suggs as one of two players in NFL history to register at least four sacks and an interception in the first five games of their career.

Jacksonville's defense has gotten fourth-quarter stops against Green Bay, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Chicago this season. The Jaguars will need another strong effort defensively against Carr and his talented receivers.

Second-year receiver Amari Cooper surpassed 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie and is on pace to be even better this season. In six games, Cooper is fourth in the league with 585 receiving yards (97.5 per game) and is averaging 16.3 yards per catch.

Michael Crabtree has also been strong and is tied for the league lead with five receiving touchdowns.

A shootout could be ready to unfold between Raider coach Jack Del Rio's current and former team.

Oakland is last in the league in yards allowed (444.8 per game) and 24th in scoring defense (27.2 points per game) this season.

That could mean more big plays for Bortles and his own pair of talented receivers, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.

Each team should be mostly healthy heading into Sunday. Let the best third-year quarterback win.

"I love the culture that we've built here," Carr said. "Whenever you have four wins and two losses and you feel not very good about how you've been playing as a team, that's a good thing because you know that there is more out there for your team.

"You know that there are bigger possibilities. But we are what we've earned, and we hope to earn some more."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colts (2-4) at Titans (3-3)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

There was a rare sight in Nissan Stadium last week.

Tennessee Titans fans, which have rarely had reason to cheer for the last two years as their team has gone 2-14 at home, actually were able to influence a couple of Cleveland possessions in the second half by making enough noise to force false start penalties.

"What a difference this place is when we have the crowd noise like we had," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said after a 28-26 win. "What an ally for this team to have support like that from this fan base."

The Titans are in position to gain even more support this week. If they can beat the Indianapolis Colts in the second of their three-game homestand, it will give them their first three-game winning streak since Week 2-4 of the 2011 season.

What's more, a victory would also enable Tennessee (3-3) to keep pace with front-running Houston (4-2) in the AFC South while also keeping Indianapolis (2-4) in the division basement.

"We're on the right track," Mularkey said. "We have a lot still to work on and still to do, but all it's doing is confirming we're going the right direction."

The Colts could have made that claim as well if they hadn't collapsed in the last seven minutes of the fourth quarter and in overtime last week in Houston. But they hacked up a 23-9 lead and then, predictably, lost 26-23 on Nick Novak's field goal.

That come-from-ahead defeat intensified calls for the job of Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano, but he appears to be safe for now. It's not likely Pagano has spent much time worrying about his job security, given that the task of rallying his team after such a brutal defeat is probably a bit more important.

"There are no pity parties in this building," Pagano said. "There are no pity parties in football. You watch the tape, make the adjustments and corrections and move on.

"We know exactly where we are at, what is ahead of us."

What's ahead of the Colts is an opponent that has not only gained confidence with its first back-to-back wins since the last two games of the 2013 season but is itching to snap a nine-game losing streak against them.

The last time the Titans beat Indianapolis was Oct. 30, 2011, when the Colts were enduring a 2-14 season that gave them the right to draft quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick in the 2012 draft. Until an injury and turnover-plagued 2015, Luck had earned three straight playoff trips.

Now, he and Indianapolis are trying to avoid a precarious situation.

"We understand how hard it is to win in this league," Luck said. "We understand that the best team on that day will win. More often than not, we realized we have no one to blame but ourselves."

The blame lies mostly with a defense ranked 25th against the rush, 29th against the pass and 30th overall. The Colts are allowing a whopping 29 points per game, leaving too big a load on Luck's big shoulders.

Meanwhile, Tennessee has made clear strides by improving on both sides of the scrimmage line. A young offensive line led by first-round pick Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan has helped veteran running back DeMarco Murray rediscover his Dallas mojo of 2014, as he has rushed for 526 yards in six games and given the offense an identity.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota has played well the last two weeks, throwing for three touchdowns in wins over Miami and Cleveland. And the defense has gotten after the quarterback, notching six sacks in each game.

Mularkey said part of the reason for the defense's improvement is the presence of veteran coordinator Dick LeBeau and his varied zone blitzes that test an offensive line's ability to adjust on the fly.

"There's a lot of moving parts. There's a lot of pre-snap disguising. That's the beauty of coach LeBeau," Mularkey said. "He's done this for a long time, and he can keep finding ways to get the matchups. It's really impressive in how he does it. He does it week in and week out."

The byproduct is contention for a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2008 or enjoyed a winning season since 2011.

"I don't care about rankings, all those things," Mularkey said. "This is going to be a tough game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ravens (3-3) at Jets (1-5)

Date: October 23, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The last time Geno Smith faced the Baltimore Ravens, he was in his 11th start as a rookie in 2013.

He didn't fare very well, completing just 9 of 22 passes and throwing two interceptions as his New York Jets lost 19-3 in Baltimore.

It was part of a forgettable rookie season for the quarterback, who completed just 55.8 percent of his passes and threw 21 interceptions vs. 12 touchdowns. He wasn't much better in his second season, which is why the Jets traded for Ryan Fitzpatrick in March 2015 and ended up making him the starter.

However, with Fitzpatrick benched Wednesday, Smith is back at the helm -- at least for now.

As the Jets (1-5) host the Ravens (3-3) on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, his task is to try to spark an offense that ranks last in scoring (15.8 points per game) and No. 2 in turnovers (15).

"I felt it was time for a change," New York coach Todd Bowles said. "We got up there in the turnover category. We hadn't put any points up. We're trying to get a spark somewhere, so I made the change."

The Ravens hope they don't have to make a change at the same position.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has been sacked 11 times over the past three games -- all losses -- and is dealing with a sore right shoulder that kept him out of practice Wednesday.

"I have a little shoulder soreness," Flacco said. "A little bit of rest right now is probably the best thing."

Coach John Harbaugh said Flacco still has a "legitimate chance to play" against the Jets. Backup Ryan Mallett would start if Flacco cannot.

In two games filling in for an injured Flacco last season, Mallett completed 58 of 97 pass attempts (59.8 percent), with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

"Ryan (could be) a starter in this league," Harbaugh said. "That will not be a problem if he plays. I'll feel very confident if Ryan Mallett is out there playing."

That said, Harbaugh clearly would prefer his starter.

"Joe will be out there if he can be," the coach said. "There's no tougher guy than Joe. To me, he will be out there. It's my belief he'll be out there."

Considering the quarterback situations in this game, both teams will try to run the ball. However, the ground yardage might be hard to come by.

The Ravens could be without top pass rusher Terrell Suggs (torn biceps), but they still have the top run defense in the NFL, giving up just 69.7 yards per game.

The Jets' running attack ranks 19th at just 92.5 yards per game. Part of that is a lack of carries -- Matt Forte and Bilal Powell have combined for just 28 the past two weeks. Smith, a more mobile quarterback than Fitzpatrick, could help that effort.

The Jets also will hope Smith can take advantage of an injury-ravaged Ravens secondary and get the ball to top wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who has 27 receptions for 433 yards and two touchdowns.

Baltimore hopes to have starting cornerback Jimmy Smith back in the lineup after he sustained a concussion last week against the Giants. But the secondary is also dealing with several other injuries: Tavon Young (undisclosed), Jerraud Powers (groin) and Shareece Wright (hamstring). The status of that trio is uncertain.

The Ravens also will try to establish their running game, with Terrance West working to take some pressure off an offensive line that has not been able to protect Flacco. West has emerged as Baltimore's top back, rushing for 208 yards on 32 carries in the past two games.

Of course, the Jets have almost as staunch a run defense as the Ravens, ranking sixth in the NFL at 85.5 yards allowed per game. Baltimore's reshuffled line will have to contend with Leonard Williams (five sacks) and company.

Bowles plans to make a few personnel moves on defense, although he would not give any details.

"(None) that I feel like revealing," Bowles said, "but I've made some changes."

One potential switch would be benching cornerback Buster Skrine, who was flagged for four penalties Monday night in New York's 28-3 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. He could be replaced by Marcus Williams, who has nine interceptions in 27 career games.