NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
As bad as the Niners have been this season, Colin Kaepernick & Co. have one strength and it's something they can exploit against the Ravens defense Sunday.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)
Bears’ YAC defense vs. Lions’ dependency on YAC
The Detroit Lions don’t have much to hang their hat on when it comes to their sputtering offense. They do, however, rank among the top teams in picking up extra yardage after the catch – also known as YAC. Heading into Week 6, the Lions have totaled 793 yards after the catch (third most in the NFL), averaging 5.39 in additional gains following a reception. The biggest culprits for Detroit’s YAC production are RB Theo Riddick and WR Golden Tate, but they also have playmakers in Calvin Johnson and butter-fingered rookie RB Ameer Abdullah.
Chicago has been very good against the pass so far, allowing just 185.8 yards through the air per game – third lowest in the league. And keeping those receiving yards down is the Bears’ ability to get to the receiver and snuff them out before they can added any additional damage. Chicago has given up a total of 430 YAC through four games, for an average of just 86 yards after the catch per outing. If the Bears can stop Detroit from tacking on any extra yardage, the 3-point spread could be tough to topple for a Lions offense scoring less than 17 points per game.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Bears D/ST, Fade – RB Theo Riddick, WR Golden Tate
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4, 42.5)
Broncos’ pass rush vs. Browns’ big passing plays
Josh McCown ranks well ahead of Peyton Manning in the DFS markets, racking up a stunning average of 20.3 points per week compared to Manning’s paltry average of 13.19. Take a couple seconds to let that one sink in. However, come Sunday, the Broncos defense may not give McCown that much time to get the ball off. Denver has a league-leading 22 sacks on the season along with 29 defensive hurries, giving opposing QBs very little time to find their threats down field. That ability to put passers on their heels has also equated to seven interceptions – two of which have gone back to the house for six points.
The Browns depend on the big play to move the chains in recent weeks, totaling 40 passes of 15 yards or more over the past four contests – a league high. Cleveland has struck for 25 yards or more on 13 plays this season, targeting playmakers in WR Travis Benjamin and TE Gary Barnidge. But with Denver’s pass rushers closing in quick, McCown may not have enough time to allow those big plays to develop this Sunday. Cleveland has given up 18 sacks already this season, including four to the Ravens last week. Those waiting for the other shoe to drop on McCown may hear a mighty thud by the time this game is over.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy – Broncos D/ST, Fade – QB Josh McCown
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)
Ravens’ third-down defense vs. Niners’ third-down offense
The 49ers have given Bay Area football fans very little to cheer about in 2015, and it’s been like that since Jim Harbaugh jumped ship to raise Michigan football from the dead. The one thing San Francisco has been able to do – and do well – is move the chains on third down. Heading into Week 6, the Niners have converted on more than 41 percent of their third down tries. Considering how bad this offense has been, that’s a pretty tasty number right there. Last week, against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, San Fran converted on eight of its 14 third downs and keep the offense on the field long enough to cover the spread. The crazy legs of Colin Kaepernick and veteran WR Anquan Boldin (83 yards on 7 catches on third down/11.9 YPC) have been the two biggest cogs on third down for the 49ers.
Baltimore is already in a tough spot for this game, having to cross the country for its fourth road trip in six weeks. The Ravens haven’t been able to land a knockout punch with opponents on the ropes, allowing teams to convert on 49.37 percent of their third down attempts – second worst in the NFL just below Jacksonville. That’s allowed teams to dominate the time of possession battle against Baltimore, which has watched opponents eat up an average of 31:17 worth of clock. The Ravens were bullied on third down versus Cleveland, with the Browns going 12 for 19 in those situations.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy – QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Anquan Boldin, Fade – Baltimore D/ST
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 54.5)
Patriots’ explosive first halves vs. Colts’ slow starts
The defending Super Bowl champs don’t ease their toe into the pool each Sunday. They do a full-on cannonball, soaking the opposing team in a tidal wave of points. New England is averaging just under a touchdown in the first quarter and 11 points in the second quarter for an average of 17.8 first-half points per game – second most in the NFL. On top of that, the Patriots defense has locked down opponents to only 5.5 points through the first 30 minutes of football. That difference forces opponents to play outside of their game plan and pick up the pace on offense in order to catch up – playing right into the hands of Darth Belichick.
The Colts have been sleepy eyed in the opening frames, putting up just 7.4 points per first half on the season. With QB Andrew Luck sidelined with a shoulder injury, Indianapolis actually had its two most productive first halves under backup Matt Hasselbeck, scoring 13 and 10 points the past two weeks. Luck is expected back for this “Deflategate” rematch but even if he’s healthy enough to get the Colts out of the blocks, it might be like bringing a knife to a gun fight. The Patriots love to pile it on – even when there’s no incentive - and New England has more than a few good reasons to let the air out of Lucas Oil Field early and often Sunday night.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy - QB, Tom Brady, WR Julian Edleman, TE Rob Gronkowski, Fade - Colts D/ST
As bad as the Niners have been this season, Colin Kaepernick & Co. have one strength and it's something they can exploit against the Ravens defense Sunday.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)
Bears’ YAC defense vs. Lions’ dependency on YAC
The Detroit Lions don’t have much to hang their hat on when it comes to their sputtering offense. They do, however, rank among the top teams in picking up extra yardage after the catch – also known as YAC. Heading into Week 6, the Lions have totaled 793 yards after the catch (third most in the NFL), averaging 5.39 in additional gains following a reception. The biggest culprits for Detroit’s YAC production are RB Theo Riddick and WR Golden Tate, but they also have playmakers in Calvin Johnson and butter-fingered rookie RB Ameer Abdullah.
Chicago has been very good against the pass so far, allowing just 185.8 yards through the air per game – third lowest in the league. And keeping those receiving yards down is the Bears’ ability to get to the receiver and snuff them out before they can added any additional damage. Chicago has given up a total of 430 YAC through four games, for an average of just 86 yards after the catch per outing. If the Bears can stop Detroit from tacking on any extra yardage, the 3-point spread could be tough to topple for a Lions offense scoring less than 17 points per game.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Bears D/ST, Fade – RB Theo Riddick, WR Golden Tate
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4, 42.5)
Broncos’ pass rush vs. Browns’ big passing plays
Josh McCown ranks well ahead of Peyton Manning in the DFS markets, racking up a stunning average of 20.3 points per week compared to Manning’s paltry average of 13.19. Take a couple seconds to let that one sink in. However, come Sunday, the Broncos defense may not give McCown that much time to get the ball off. Denver has a league-leading 22 sacks on the season along with 29 defensive hurries, giving opposing QBs very little time to find their threats down field. That ability to put passers on their heels has also equated to seven interceptions – two of which have gone back to the house for six points.
The Browns depend on the big play to move the chains in recent weeks, totaling 40 passes of 15 yards or more over the past four contests – a league high. Cleveland has struck for 25 yards or more on 13 plays this season, targeting playmakers in WR Travis Benjamin and TE Gary Barnidge. But with Denver’s pass rushers closing in quick, McCown may not have enough time to allow those big plays to develop this Sunday. Cleveland has given up 18 sacks already this season, including four to the Ravens last week. Those waiting for the other shoe to drop on McCown may hear a mighty thud by the time this game is over.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy – Broncos D/ST, Fade – QB Josh McCown
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)
Ravens’ third-down defense vs. Niners’ third-down offense
The 49ers have given Bay Area football fans very little to cheer about in 2015, and it’s been like that since Jim Harbaugh jumped ship to raise Michigan football from the dead. The one thing San Francisco has been able to do – and do well – is move the chains on third down. Heading into Week 6, the Niners have converted on more than 41 percent of their third down tries. Considering how bad this offense has been, that’s a pretty tasty number right there. Last week, against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, San Fran converted on eight of its 14 third downs and keep the offense on the field long enough to cover the spread. The crazy legs of Colin Kaepernick and veteran WR Anquan Boldin (83 yards on 7 catches on third down/11.9 YPC) have been the two biggest cogs on third down for the 49ers.
Baltimore is already in a tough spot for this game, having to cross the country for its fourth road trip in six weeks. The Ravens haven’t been able to land a knockout punch with opponents on the ropes, allowing teams to convert on 49.37 percent of their third down attempts – second worst in the NFL just below Jacksonville. That’s allowed teams to dominate the time of possession battle against Baltimore, which has watched opponents eat up an average of 31:17 worth of clock. The Ravens were bullied on third down versus Cleveland, with the Browns going 12 for 19 in those situations.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy – QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Anquan Boldin, Fade – Baltimore D/ST
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 54.5)
Patriots’ explosive first halves vs. Colts’ slow starts
The defending Super Bowl champs don’t ease their toe into the pool each Sunday. They do a full-on cannonball, soaking the opposing team in a tidal wave of points. New England is averaging just under a touchdown in the first quarter and 11 points in the second quarter for an average of 17.8 first-half points per game – second most in the NFL. On top of that, the Patriots defense has locked down opponents to only 5.5 points through the first 30 minutes of football. That difference forces opponents to play outside of their game plan and pick up the pace on offense in order to catch up – playing right into the hands of Darth Belichick.
The Colts have been sleepy eyed in the opening frames, putting up just 7.4 points per first half on the season. With QB Andrew Luck sidelined with a shoulder injury, Indianapolis actually had its two most productive first halves under backup Matt Hasselbeck, scoring 13 and 10 points the past two weeks. Luck is expected back for this “Deflategate” rematch but even if he’s healthy enough to get the Colts out of the blocks, it might be like bringing a knife to a gun fight. The Patriots love to pile it on – even when there’s no incentive - and New England has more than a few good reasons to let the air out of Lucas Oil Field early and often Sunday night.
Daily fantasy watch: Buy - QB, Tom Brady, WR Julian Edleman, TE Rob Gronkowski, Fade - Colts D/ST
