Sunday 10/18/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Sunday Night Football'

Deflategate-Angry Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) and Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) get it on at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday night. Depending on locale, oddsmakers have made the Patriots -7.5 to -10 point road favorites. A heavy road favorite in football betting is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case bucking New England is not the way to go as this Patriot squad is on a mission.

New England's winning streak against Indianapolis standing at six games with an average winning margin of 21 points/game 'Ya Gota Think' an angry New England squad outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points/game cruise to a double digit victory in this primetime affair.

Patriots currently ridding a sparkling 5-0 SU/ATS streak in Sunday Night Football, Bill Belichick coached Patriots a profitable 13-6-1 at the betting window in this series including 6-2 ATS playing in Colts back yard the numbers add up well enough to conclude Patriots are the correct choice. One final tid-bit, Colts have failed to cash in six straight when facing an AFC East opponent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers October 18, 1:00 EST

Backing Cardinals has been the right choice since the 2014 campaign with the team covering 15-of-22 including 4-1 ATS this season. But, grabbing the cash in Pittsburgh is going to be a challenge. Covering back-2-back road games over that span has resulted in an 0-2 ATS record for Cardinals. Additionally, Steelers are a money making 8-1-1 ATS L10 and have been a very profitable 10-2-2 ATS mark as a home underdog going back to the 2000 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Oak Ridge Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 2:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$7000 - OPEN HANDICAP . THE JOHN HOLLAND MEMORIAL DEDICATED TO HIS DREAM


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 CALLMEMZA 4/1


# 5 REVER EVER 2/1


# 3 APPARITION 3/1


CALLMEMZA is the most respectable bet in this contest. Should compete sharply in this competition as her style of running fits well in this field of starters. Could clearly dominate this group given the 81 TrackMaster speed fig recorded in her last affair. This entrant and Roberts have a very good relationship. In the money percent for this match is high. REVER EVER - This harness racer has been making trips to the winner's circle on a routine basis, look for him to make another showing soon. Look for Harmon and this harness racer to take the whole enchilada in this one. Really good in the money figure for the trainer/horse tandem. APPARITION - He has respectable class ratings, averaging 88. Could be considered for a bet this time. The handicapping group has Poliseno on its list of drivers who are hot recently. Last 30 days win percent is fantastic.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 2:35 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$8500 - NON-WINNERS $5,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 FOX VALLEY VETO 5/2


# 6 CELEBRITY BLUECHIP 3/1


# 7 LONG STORY SHORT 4/1


We've got a feeling FOX VALLEY VETO is going to get the top prize. Worth considering here given the ratings in the speed rating department alone. Seems to have a respectable class edge based on the standardbreds he has faced. Going to post quite well, achieved a bang-up speed figure in his most recent race (85). CELEBRITY BLUECHIP - Has a strong shot this time, if he can repeat his back racing class. This harness racer will have to be a bet, based on the very good driver/trainer win clip. LONG STORY SHORT - Getting a good instinct about this gelding. Could surprise in this one. Overall figures appear very good. Can't throw out at this point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 18. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 GOOD SONG 8/1


# 6 MAMBO MAYA 2/1


# 4 SOMETHING BLUE 3/1


GOOD SONG is my selection and is a competitive value bet given the line. Likely to see this pony to be right there at the wire versus these horses. Oconnell has this mare moving well and is a respectable pick based on the solid Speed Figures earned in sprint races as of late. Could provide positive returns based on respectable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 70. MAMBO MAYA - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Gomez will almost certainly have this mare in excellent position to win the contest. Could best this group of horses based on the speed figure - 67 - of her last affair. SOMETHING BLUE - Castro should be able to get this filly to break out quickly here. Handler boasts very strong win figs at this distance and surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14250 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CANDY CAPTAIN CARL 25/1


# 1 JUANILLO 12/1


# 6 THE SERGE PROTECTOR 5/2


CANDY CAPTAIN CARL looks quite good to best this group of horses in this race and is a solid value-based wager given the 25/1 line. JUANILLO - Ought to be given a shot based on the respectable Equibase speed fig recorded in the last race. Covarrubias and Salazar have a very good win percentage together. THE SERGE PROTECTOR - Is a sharp contender based on figs earned recently under today's conditions. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Keeneland - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $64,000 Class Rating: 107

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 DECISIVE MOMENT (ML=8/1)
#6 ZA APPROVAL (ML=8/5)
#8 GRAND CONTENDER (ML=2/1)
#7 ONE TOUCH (ML=8/1)


DECISIVE MOMENT - This horse is in good physical condition, having run a good race on September 30th, finishing second. ZA APPROVAL - This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the distance and surface. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Leparoux, and this one could bound home the winner. Ranks highest in earnings per start. A dominant effort in today's race will add to that bankroll. GRAND CONTENDER - I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong race within the last 30 days. Failed as the favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the speed fig notched was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's event. This animal has shown the power to win on different tracks. Making the move from Churchill Downs for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. ONE TOUCH - Last ran at Keeneland and finished fifth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the finish, within 5 of the winner. I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last morning work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +133. This jock/handler tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. Don't throw this animal out due to his last contest at Keeneland where he finished fifth on the soft turf. Should improve this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BERN' JAMES BERN (ML=8/1),

BERN' JAMES BERN - Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's event. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's class rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GRAND CONTENDER - You got to like this steed against this competition. He has the top turf number off his last race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 DECISIVE MOMENT on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:13pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 CAPTAIN CARCHY (ML=5/2)
#7 JACK NO (ML=8/1)


CAPTAIN CARCHY - Was in a $30,000 Maiden Claiming race at Santa Anita last time around the track. That affair had an Equibase class figure of 87 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain win candidate. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this race. The most recent speed fig of 82 is the highest last race speed rating in the field. This gelding is certainly on the improve with speed figures of 67, 76, 82 last 3 out. This thoroughbred brings in a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can increase the lifetime bankroll in this race. JACK NO - Trainer Koriner moves this animal to a lower class rank to face a lower rated field. Look for a solid race at this level. When Quinonez and Koriner join forces on equines the ROI has been terrific at +422. Have to like the way Koriner has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Equine is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This gelding has been posting some excellent workout times.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GARRAPATA BEACH (ML=7/2), #4 RUN THE SHOW (ML=4/1), #1 KRONWALL (ML=6/1),

GARRAPATA BEACH - Tough to play this questionable contender today. Make him show you something in a short distance event before you invest in him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. Pace is so important, and this early speedster is going to have an early battle on his hands. RUN THE SHOW - Tough to play at 4/1 odds after the two most recent outings. Hard to expect this gelding to be in form after the long layoff. KRONWALL - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs lately. Improbable to see him doing it today either.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CAPTAIN CARCHY - This thoroughbred's last two speed figures of 76 and 82 are better the today's class rating of 72.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 CAPTAIN CARCHY to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #4 - BELMONT PARK - 2:34 PM EASTERN POST


The Matron Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#5 PRETTY N COOL
#3 CONSTELLATION
#2 TONASAH
#6 LIBRETA

Here in the 109th running of this important graded stakes test for juvenile fillies, #5 PRETTY N COOL takes a class drop (-2) this afternoon to enter this challenge, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her three career starts to date, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" in her first two "adventures!" Jockey Martin Garcia was in her irons for those three "board hit results," and is back this afternoon here in Elmont, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!" #3 CONSTELLATION, also has nice pace profile, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of her two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (1st) Whippo, 3-1
(3rd) Blue Pigeon, 4-1

Fresno (5th) Tanned Miss, 6-1
(10th) Atomic Rule, 5-1

Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Good Song, 8-1
(6th) Templar Warrior, 9-2


Hastings Park (6th) Flemings Beach, 4-1
(10th) Payton's Command, 3-1


Keeneland (3rd) Duty Proper, 8-1
(4th) Decisive Moment, 8-1


Laurel Park (6th) Cruise More, 8-1
(9th) Tobias, 8-1


Parx (4th) Thoroughbred Fuel, 7-2
(6th) Shopaholic, 8-1


Santa Anita (5th) Run the Show, 4-1
(9th) Margaret Reay, 3-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Shoeless Jackson, 4-1
(8th) Nohoneymoon, 7-2


Woodbine (4th) Sweet Luca, 6-1
(6th) Endless Light, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cubs (97-65) at Mets (90-72)

Game: 2
Venue: Citi Field
Date: October 18, 2015 8:07 PM EDT

Jake Arrieta has only lost once on the road this year and it came five months ago. The Chicago Cubs are counting on that to remain that way if they're going to even this NL Championship Series at one game apiece.

Arrieta tries to extend his overall winning streak to 14 games with another dominant performance Sunday night against the New York Mets at Citi Field.

Including the postseason, Arrieta (2-0, 2.45 ERA) has compiled a 0.83 ERA over 15 overall starts since losing to Philadelphia on July 25. The right-hander has also been outstanding on the road, going 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA in 16 starts since a loss at St. Louis on May 7.

That dominance includes allowing one run and striking out seven in eight innings of a 6-1 win in Queens on July 2. He's 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his past four overall meetings with the Mets since losing his first in 2012 with Baltimore.

Arrieta's transformation into an ace has been obvious to Cubs manager Joe Maddon.

"Biggest, biggest difference is fastball command, period," he said. "He knows where his fastball's going. Now back then when the Orioles, great stuff. A really good hook, slider, velocity, movement, he really has always been that guy. Now because he knows where his fastball is going, they have to honor the slider, cutter, and his curveball and the other pitches."

Despite getting the win in Game 3 of the division series over the Cardinals, it was a rough outing by Arrieta's standards as he gave up four runs in 5 2-3 innings of the 8-6 victory. He's also looking to help the Cubs rebound from Saturday's 4-2 loss in Game 1 after Jon Lester surrendered four runs and eight hits - two homers - in 6 2-3 innings.

The offense did Lester few favors, totaling five hits while mainly flailing against Matt Harvey, who recorded nine of New York's 10 strikeouts as Chicago lost to the Mets for the first time in eight meetings in 2015.

"You know, it's the cream of the crop at this point in time," Arrieta said. "The Mets have had a tremendous year, and we've done the same. So it's going to be a challenging series for both sides. But that's kind of the expectations you're under once you get to this point."

New York's Daniel Murphy is exceeding pretty much everyone's expectations, hitting .320 with four homers and six RBIs in the postseason. The second baseman's solo blast off Lester on Saturday gave him one in three straight games, matching the Mets record set by Donn Clendenon in 1969 - the year he was World Series MVP.

"If I knew what I was doing I would have hit more homers during the regular season," said Murphy, who had a career-high 14 during the regular season.

He's batting .400 over his last seven games against Chicago and was 2 for 6 versus Arrieta this year.

Rookie phenom Noah Syndergaard (0-1, 3.68), who was charged with a 6-1 loss at Chicago opposite Arrieta in his major league debut May 12, follows Harvey for the Mets. The right-hander allowed three runs with six strikeouts and four walks in 5 1-3 innings.

"My mechanics are completely different," Syndergaard said. "I think my mentality out there is a lot different. I've been able to go out there with a lot more confidence in myself and getting myself out of certain situations by using necessarily uncomfortable pitches that I might have used at a different time."

Syndergaard should feel very comfortable at Citi Field, where he's 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA in 12 starts.

He gave up three runs with nine strikeouts in 6 1-3 innings of a 5-2 defeat at Los Angeles in Game 2 of the NLDS on Oct. 10. He tossed a hitless inning of relief in Thursday's decisive 3-2 Game 5 victory.

"As I look back at what happened this year," Syndergaard said, "I feel like I've made a lot of strides and even grown as a better pitcher."

He'll face Kyle Schwarber for the first time. The rookie slugger is hitting .471 with six RBIs in six games and his four homers tie a Cubs postseason record shared by Alex Gonzalez and Aramis Ramirez in 2003.

Schwarber is trying to join Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria (2008) as the only rookies to hit homers in four straight playoff games.

"You have to stick with your approach and make sure you get your pitch," Schwarber told MLB's official website.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Chicago Cubs at N.Y.Mets Ocober 18, 8:30 EST

Chicago Cubs right-hander Jake Arriet will start Game 2 of the National League Championship Series against the New York Mets on Saturday night. Not good news for the Mets. Cubbies haven't tasted defeated in Arrieta's last fifteen trips to the mound. Add to that, Arrieta has been a road warrior for the Chicago Cubs this season. In 19 road starts the hurler is 14-1 with a minicule 1.49 ERA with Cubbies 17-2 in those games including 11 consecutive road wins. Also, Cubbies are 4-0 vs Mets last two years with Arrieta touching toe to rubber.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League

Cubs vs Mets
Arrieta is 9-0, 0.95 in his last ten starts (under 7-1-1 last nine).

Syndergaard is 1-1, 2.57 in his last three starts (over 7-2 last nine); he threw a scoreless inning of relief since his last start.

Chicago won nine of last ten games against the Mets (under 6-2-2); Cubs won nine of last eleven games overall (over 3-0-1 last four).

New York won five of last seven games (under 7-2-1 in last ten).

AL Wild Card game
Houston @ Bronx
Hst 3-0, even U7

NL Wild Card game
Chicago @ Pittsburgh
Chi 4-0, -$125, U5.5

NLDS
New York @ Los Angeles
NY 3-1, -$196, U5.5
LA 5-2, -$170, O6
NY 13-4, -$164, O7
LA 3-1, -$146, U6.5
NY 3-2, +$129, U6
Mets win series, 3-2

NLDS
Chicago @ St Louis
StL 4-0, -$107, U6
Chi 6-3, +$126, O6.5
Chi 8-6, -$202, O7
Chi 6-4, -$115, O8.5
Cubs win series, 3-1

ALDS
Texas @ Toronto
Tex 5-3, +$250, N8
Tex 6-4 (14), +$154, O7.5
Tor 5-1, +$126, U10
Tor 8-4, -$149, O10
Tor 6-3, -$170, O8
Blue Jays win series 3-2

ALDS
Houston @ Kansas City
Hst 5-2, +$122, U7.5
KC 5-4, -$178, O7.5
Hst 4-2, -$175, U7.5
KC 9-6, +$116, O7.5
KC 7-2, -$126, O7.5
Royals win series, 3-2

Blue Jays vs Royals
KC 5-0, +$107, U8
KC 6-3, +$136, O7

Cubs vs Mets
NY 4-2, -$125, N6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's 6-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 1 season record: 15-10

6) Giants +4.5 (384)-- Lost 11 of last 14 games against the Eagles.

5) Lions -3 (417)-- Lot of people have faith in this winless favorite.

4) Bills +3.5 (470)-- Only QBs to beat Buffalo both won multiple Super Bowls.

3) Vikings -4 (547)-- Minnesota lost its last five post-bye games.

2) Cardinals -3 (768)-- Bruce Arians against his former employer.

1) Patriots -7.5 (849)-- NE scored 47 ppg in last four games vs Colts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play SUN over the total 44 Balt/SanFran

 

[biblos]

any Ultra sports? TIA!

 

[FORGETABOUTIT]

Anyone seen or have Larry Ness NFL 32 club play for today? Thanks in advance

 

[biblos]

any Ultra sports? TIA!

 

[sportscrazy]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Kansas City Chiefs.

Edges - Chiefs: 5-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back NFC contests; and Andy Reid 25-11 ATS away with a losing record, including 12-2 SUATS the last fourteen. Vikings: 1-4 SUATS before facing the Lions. With Reid 5-1 SUATS in his career against Minnesota, with the only defeat coming in the last meeting as a 14-point home favorite in 2010, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Browns
Seahawks
Patriots