Essential Week 6 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday
Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)
* Controversial quarterback Colin Kaepernick makes his first start in nearly a year as the San Francisco 49ers attempt to halt their string of four consecutive losses when they visit the streaking Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kaepernick, who has become more notable for his protest of the national anthem than his ability on the field, will start for the first time since a setback against the then-St. Louis Rams on Nov. 1 as he replaces Blaine Gabbert under center.
* Buffalo is riding a three-game winning streak during which it has yielded fewer than 20 points in each contest. The Bills have scored 30 or more points twice on their run, which began after the firing of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Buffalo is seeking its first string of four straight victories since opening the 2008 season at 4-0.
LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as -7.5 home favorites but that line jumped to -9 when Kaepernick was announced as the starter for San Francisco. The spread sat at -9 for most of the week until coming down to -8 on Saturday morning. The total opened at 44 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a straight up win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 46)
* Jacksonville has been idle since holding off Indianapolis in a game at London two weeks ago. The victory was much needed for a team which hoped to earn a playoff berth for the first time since 2007, but opened the season with losses in three games that it felt it could win. Jacksonville changed its blocking scheme last game and it paid immediate dividends as the Jaguars ran for 136 yards against the Colts, which was nearly as much as it mustered in its first three games.
* Brian Hoyer will make his fourth straight start as the Chicago Bears host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday with both teams searching for their second win of the season. Hoyer, who replaced Jay Cutler after the veteran signal-caller suffered a thumb injury, has been superb in notching three straight 300-yard passing games without an interception but the Bears are still off to their worst start since 2005.
LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2-point home favorites and by Tuesday morning that line has jumped up to -2.5. On Friday morning that line dropped drastically to -1 and has since began to trickle back in the Bears' direction at -1.5. The total opened at 47 and has dropped a full point to sit at 46 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games in October.
* Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)
* The Rams experienced the opposite in Week 5, losing 30-19 to visiting Buffalo in spite of a season-high 345 total yards – in large part because of three turnovers, the last of which was an interception by Case Keenum that was returned for a touchdown. “We made some plays on third down, we had nine explosive plays against a really good defense, and we had 23 first downs,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher told reporters. “You can take the 32nd in the league and write all you want about it, but this offense is improving.” The Rams have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-14 victory last season in St. Louis in which Todd Gurley rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns.
* The Detroit Lions haven’t been able to maintain much success on offense, but they might not need too much production from that side of the ball to get back to .500. The Lions aim for a second consecutive victory when they host the offensively challenged Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Lions snapped a three-game skid with a 24-23 win over previously undefeated Philadelphia last week despite another uneven performance from the offense.
LINE HISTORY: The Detroit Lions opened the betting week as 3-point home favorites and the total hit the betting board at 44. Heading into Sunday morning, neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
* Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games on fieldturf.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48)
* While Antonio Brown (NFL-leading 37 receptions, league high-tying five TDs) is a constant, the Steelers are expected to usher slot receiver Eli Rogers into the lineup with Sammie Coates (hand laceration) in question after posting a career-high 139 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-13 win over the Jets. "I feel like I was on the verge of becoming a factor a team needed to account for," said Rogers, who has nine receptions for 100 yards and one touchdown in three contests. Mammoth tight end Jesse James had a season-high six receptions last week and has found the end zone in three of his last four games.
* Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph hasn't liked what he's seen from Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Byron Maxwell this season, saying the former "has got to play harder; he’s got to play better," while stating the latter "has not played overall well." Williams only has seven tackles and one sack this season, without registering one of either last week as Miami was gashed for 235 yards on the ground in a 30-17 loss to Tennessee. Maxwell was benched two games ago, but a knee injury to rookie Xavien Howard will send him back into the lineup with the enormous task of shadowing Brown rumored to be on his plate.
LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the betting week as 7.5-point road favorite at Miami. The spread dropped to the key number of 7 briefly on Saturday morning but was quickly bet back up to 7.5 by Saturday afternoon. The total opened at 48, was reduced as low as 47 during the week, and settled back to the opening number of 48 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Dolphins are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7.5, 47.5)
* Two of Cincinnati's losses came to division rival Pittsburgh and defending Super Bowl champion Denver, but last week's no-show was startling as it fell behind by 28 points in the third quarter at Dallas. Quarterback Andy Dalton tops the AFC with 1,503 yards and No. 1 target A.J. Green has a conference-leading 518 yards, but the absence of injured tight end Tyler Eifert and an inconsistent running game continues to plague the offense. Running back Jeremy Hill was limited to 12 yards on four carries after aggravating a shoulder injury, but is expected to play Sunday. Former Patriots wideout Brandon LaFell is coming off an eight-catch, two-touchdown effort in Dallas.
* Brady aired it out 40 times last week and immediately established a rapport with No. 2 tight end Martellus Bennett, who had six receptions for 67 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first two games due to a hamstring injury and had one catch through the first four contests, broke out with five receptions for 109 yards at Cleveland. Offseason acquisition Chris Hogan also made an impact with the return of Brady, hauling in four passes for 114 yards. New England ranks 13th overall in total defense, two spots below Cincinnati, but the Patriots are fourth in the league with an average of 14.8 points allowed, more than seven fewer than the Bengals.
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 8-point home favorites and, other than a brief bump to -8.5, the spread was steady all week until Saturday when the Pats' line was reduced to -7.5. The total hit the board at 47 and rose slightly to 47.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+2.5, 53)
* The Panther announced on Saturday that quarterback Cam Newton will return for Sunday's game against the Saints. Newton suffered a concussion during the Panthers’ 48-33 loss at Atlanta in Week 4 and missed Monday night’s 17-14 setback against Tampa Bay, which dropped Carolina to 1-4 a year after it won its first 14 games en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Along with Newton, the Panthers hope to get running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back on Sunday, but they could be without receiver Kelvin Benjamin (knee).
* New Orleans ranks last in the league in total defense and 31st in scoring defense, but it held San Diego to 38 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. They’ve had an especially tough time stopping the pass, however, which could be a problem if Newton is able to go. Drew Brees and the offense have been boom-or-bust, putting up 507 and 474 total yards in two games but being held under 300 in the other two.
LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and during the week that line was dropped to 2.5. The total hit the betting board at 53 and hasn't moved all week. Can Newton's participation was factored into the lines right from the beginning of the week. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Saints last 8 home games.
* Panthers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings in New Orleans.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
* Mornhinweg is expected to put more emphasis on the running game in an effort to open up more play-action passes. Flacco enters Week 6 leading the NFL in passing attempts with 216 but is 31st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks with an average of 5.94 yards per attempt and has connected with receivers on only 12 passes of 20 or more yards. The defense remains solid but could be without a key contributor in linebacker C.J. Mosley, who leads the team with three interceptions and is second with 29 tackles but is dealing with a hamstring injury suffered last Sunday and has not practiced this week.
* Manning is having trouble developing a connection with mercurial receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who caught his first touchdown pass last week but has only 27 receptions despite 51 targets. Manning also could use some help from a running game that is missing Shane Vereen (triceps) and Rashad Jennings (thumb), who "has a better chance of playing this week than he had last week," coach Ben McAdoo told reporters after Wednesday's practice. The Giants have issues on the back end of the defense as well, with cornerbacks Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both questionable due to groin injuries.
LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 3-point favorites and that point spread held steady on the key number all week until Saturday when the line was bumped up to -3.5. The total hit the board at 43.5 and heading into Sunday morning the current number is 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games overall.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 43.5)
* Things are so bad for the Cleveland Browns that they've used five different quarterbacks and brought in embattled former Baylor coach Art Briles to help an offense clearly in disarray. The Browns, who have lost seven straight and 14 of their last 15 games, are the NFL's only winless team as they visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Briles was fired by Baylor amid a sexual assault scandal involving several members of the school's football team and will serve as an offensive adviser for the Browns.
* For some reason Mariota has been a better quarterback on the road than he is at home (11 TDs, 12 interceptions, 76.7 passer rating at home; 15 TDs, 3 interceptions and a 100.6 rating on the road). DeMarco Murray, who leads the NFL with 31 rushing touchdowns and is second with 4,129 yards since 2013, has helped turn Tennessee into an efficient ball-control offense with 461 yards on the ground for the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense. Sunday begins the first of three straight home games for the Titans, who promise not to look past the Browns. "We're not looking at them as a bad opponent, or any of these teams coming up, but it's definitely an opportunity to get some wins," said Tennessee defensive tackle Karl Klug.
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 7-point home favorites against the struggling Browns and by the end of the week that number was up to -7.5. The total hit the board at 44 and came down slightly to 43.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Titans are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3, 45)
* Running back Ryan Mathews looks to atone for his costly fumble in the fourth quarter against Detroit when he faces Washington, versus which he scored in his last encounter and looks to exploit a defense yielding an NFL third-worst 130 yards per game on the ground. Jordan Matthews has been held in check with just six catches over his last three games, but hauled in that many receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Redskins. The 24-year-old didn't face Josh Norman in that contest, but was limited to just three catches for 14 yards by the stud cornerback in a 27-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers last season.
* DeSean Jackson has mustered just four catches in his last two games but could get untracked versus his former team, against which he has 13 receptions for 283 yards and a touchdown in three games since leaving the Eagles following the 2013 season. Jackson currently is in a contract year and revealed that his once ice-cold relationship with Philadelphia has thawed, most noticeably after Doug Pederson replaced Chip Kelly as the team's coach. Fellow wideout Pierre Garcon found the end zone last week and has scored in each of his last two encounters with the Eagles. Running back Matt Jones was limited to just 31 yards on 14 carries in Sunday's 16-10 win over Baltimore, and will face a third-ranked defense allowing just 73.3 yards per game on the ground.
LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened the betting week as 2-point road faves and that line gradually crept up throughout the week to settle on the key number of 3 heading into Sunday. The total opened at 44.5 and was bumped up to 45 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Redskins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 vs. NFC.
* Over is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 games on grass.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+1.5, 46)
* The Chiefs are hoping their bye week has helped them recover from a 43-14 trouncing at the hands of Pittsburgh in Week 4. Kansas City has a winning streak on the line Sunday, as it has captured six consecutive meetings with AFC West rivals. Alex Smith has been a major factor in Kansas City's recent success against the Raiders, completing 61 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions en route to posting a 5-1 record. Smith has been even better in Oakland, recording nine TD passes without a pick while registering a 68-percent completion rate.
* The Oakland Raiders look to extend their winning streak to four games when they host a bitter rival in the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Oakland has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL thus far, entering Week 6 tied with Denver atop the AFC West thanks to a perfect 3-0 road record and its ability to pull out close games. Each of the Raiders' five contests this year has been decided by seven points or fewer, with their four victories coming by a total of 12. Oakland has not had much success of late against division-rival Kansas City, which has won five of the last six meetings.
LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2-point home favorites which was quickly reduced to -1.5 on Monday morning. On Tuesday morning the line dropped all of the way down to a pick 'em and the spread fully jumped the fence to the Chiefs' side on Thursday to 1.5 - which is where it sits coming into Sunday. The total opened at 46.5 and is currently 46. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 15-1 in Raiders last 16 games in Week 6.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 47.5)
* Ezekiel Elliott has run roughshod over the NFL to begin his rookie season, but the fourth overall pick of the 2016 draft will face his sternest test to date on Sunday as his Dallas Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers and their top-ranked run defense. "Always excited for a challenge, that's what competitors love," said Elliott, who leads the league with 546 rushing yards after rolling up 134 on the ground with two touchdowns as Dallas won its fourth straight last Sunday. Dak Prescott had a pair of touchdowns (one rushing, one throwing) last week and has an NFL rookie-record 155 passing attempts without an interception, prompting many in the rabid fan base to question whether he should remain at the helm when veteran quarterback Tony Romo returns from his back injury.
* While Elliott is averaging a robust 5.01 yards per attempt, the stingy Packers are yielding just 2.0 per carry and 42.8 per game - although they have some questions within their own backfield. Eddie Lacy is uncertain if he'll play on Sunday after exiting last week's 23-16 win over the New York Giants with an ailing ankle and backup James Starks is nursing a knee issue and dealing with a death in the family. The only two running backs on the roster, Lacy and Starks combined for 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay's 28-7 rout of Dallas on Dec. 13. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked as dominant as in prior years, as his 56.1 completion percentage in 2016 is a far cry from the 65.9 percent he averaged from 2008-2014. "I've got to be more accurate, and I will," Rodgers said of Green Bay's 27th-ranked passing offense.
LINE HISTORY: The Green Bay Packers opened the week at -4. The point spread wobbled throughout the week between -4 and -4.5 and sits at the latter heading into Sunday morning. The total opened at 46.5 and has gone up to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games on grass.
* Under is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games following a straight up win.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 44.5)
* Any questions of whether the Atlanta Falcons' fast start was somewhat of a fluke were put to rest last week following a convincing road victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions. Life won't get any easier for the Falcons, who put a four-game winning streak on the line when they head to the Pacific Northwest for a matching against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Quarterback Matt Ryan leads the league's No. 1-ranked offense into Seattle, topping the NFL in passing yards (1,740) and passer rating (121.6) while ranking second with 12 touchdowns. Stud wide receiver Julio Jones had a quiet week against Denver after hauling in 12 receptions for 300 yards and a touchdown in the drubbing of Carolina.
* Seattle managed only one touchdown in splitting its first two games of the season but rebounded to put up 64 points in back-to-back victories over San Francisco and the New York Jets. Despite playing with a sprained knee against the Jets, Wilson threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns and says he feels great following the additional rest. While Christine Michael continues to carry the running game in place of an injured Thomas Rawls, the biggest surprise has been the return to health by tight end Jimmy Graham, who is coming off consecutive six-catch, 100-yard games. Seattle allows 13.5 points per game and owns the league's top-ranked defense (264 yards per game).
LINE HISTORY: The Seattle Seahawks opened as 6-point home favorites and waivered between -6 and -6.5 all week before taking a jump up to the key number of -7 on Saturday evening. The total opened at 45.5 and dropped a full point to 44.5 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 6.
* Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Seahawks last 11 games in Week 6.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3, 48.5)
* Luck threw a 35-yard touchdown pass with just over 3 1/2 minutes to play in a 29-23 win over Chicago last week to prevent the Colts from dropping to 1-4. "We needed to get that taste out of our mouth. We needed a win," Luck said. Winning cures all in this league." Luck has thrown for 10 touchdowns against only three interceptions while tying for fourth in the league with 1,469 yards passing, but he also has been sacked an NFL-high 20 times behind Indianapolis' shaky offensive line.
* The Houston Texans have been dismal on the road but look to remain perfect at home when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in an early-season showdown for first place in the AFC South. Houston has won all three contests at home to hold a one-game edge atop the division, but it has lost six of the last seven matchups against the Colts. The Texans will attempt to rebound from a 31-13 drubbing at Minnesota in which they were limited to 214 total yards and failed to score a touchdown until the final four minutes. Houston snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with a 16-10 home win on Dec. 20, but that was without quarterback Andrew Luck in Indianapolis' lineup.
LINE HISTORY: The Houston Texans opened as 3.5-point home favorites and that line was immediately reduced to -3 on Monday morning and hasn't moved for the rest of the week. The total hit the betting board at 46 and rose sharply to 48.5 entering Sunday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 7-1 in Colts last 8 games on grass.
* Over is 9-0 in Texans last 9 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Houston.
