Sunday 10/16/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Sunday, October 16

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 275-276
October 16, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.450
Houston
132.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+3 1/2); Under

Dallas @ Green Bay

Game 273-274
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.525
Green Bay
140.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under

Atlanta @ Seattle

Game 271-272
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
134.332
Seattle
144.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Over

Kansas City @ Oakland

Game 269-270
October 16, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.096
Oakland
130.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+1); Over

Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 267-268
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.830
Washington
135.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.054
Tennessee
128.037
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+7 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Detroit

Game 263-264
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
128.273
Detroit
135.040
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-3); Under

San Francisco @ Buffalo

Game 261-262
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.085
Buffalo
137.169
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 5
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 8
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+8); Over

Jacksonville @ Chicago

Game 259-260
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.368
Chicago
125.412
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+2 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Game 257-258
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
136.266
Miami
130.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+8); Under

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 255-256
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.371
New Orleans
128.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); N/A

Baltimore @ NY Giants

Game 253-254
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.054
NY Giants
131.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 4 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Over

Cincinnati @ New England

Game 251-252
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.255
New England
138.701
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+9); Over


Monday, October 17

NY Jets @ Arizona

Game 277-278
October 17, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.038
Arizona
136.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+9); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
LONG SHEET

Sunday, October 16

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CINCINNATI (2 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 226-184 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 226-184 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 176-134 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (3 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 4) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-39 ATS (+22.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at CHICAGO (1 - 4) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (3 - 2) at DETROIT (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-170 ATS (-61.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 127-164 ATS (-53.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 5) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 42-76 ATS (-41.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-79 ATS (-32.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (4 - 1) at GREEN BAY (3 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 17

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NY JETS (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (2 - 3) - 10/17/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sun – Oct. 14

Cincinnati at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 19-34 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
New England: 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Baltimore at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
New York: 12-26 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 33-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New Orleans: 7-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 37-19 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Miami: 1-9 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Jacksonville at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 10-2 OVER in road games in games played on a grass field
Chicago: 6-16 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

San Francisco at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

LA Rams at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 15-44 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Detroit: 14-4 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 19-7 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses
Tennessee: 3-13 ATS in home games

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 12-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
Washington: 28-48 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 10-2 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Oakland: 8-19 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points

Atlanta at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 8-19 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games
Green Bay: 14-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 PM ET
Indianapolis: 16-4 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Houston: 6-0 OVER in October games


Mon – Oct. 17

NY Jets at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 32-17 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Arizona: 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report for Sunday's games

ATLANTA FALCONS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Out: LB Paul Worrilow (groin)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Out: DE Quinton Jefferson (thumb), RB Thomas Rawls (fibula)
--Questionable: S Kam Chancellor (groin), DE Frank Clark (hamstring), RB C.J. Prosise (wrist), DT Garrison Smith (oblique)

BALTIMORE RAVENS at NEW YORK GIANTS
BALTIMORE RAVENS
--Out: LB Elvis Dumervil (foot)
--Doubtful: WR Devin Hester (thigh), LB C.J. Mosley (thigh), WR Steve Smith (ankle), T Ronnie Stanley (foot), G Marshal Yanda (shoulder)
--Questionable: S Kendrick Lewis (thigh), LB Albert McClellan (calf), T Rick Wagner (thigh), WR Mike Wallace (chest), CB Shareece Wright (back)
NEW YORK GIANTS
--Out: S Nat Berhe (concussion), T Marshall Newhouse (calf), S Darian Thompson (foot)
--Questionable: CB Eli Apple (groin), WR Dwayne Harris (toe), RB Rashad Jennings (thumb), LB Devon Kennard (concussion), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (groin), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (groin)

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
--Out: CB James Bradberry (foot), DT Vernon Butler (ankle), CB Robert McClain (hamstring), T Michael Oher (concussion), DT Paul Soliai (foot)
--Questionable: WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee), DE Charles Johnson (quadricep), QB Cam Newton (concussion), RB Jonathan Stewart (hamstring)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: T Terron Armstead (knee), CB Delvin Breaux (fibula), LB Dannell Ellerbe (quadricep)
--Questionable: TE Josh Hill (ankle), C Senio Kelemete (hamstring), DE Paul Kruger (back), LB James Laurinaitis (quadricep)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Out: TE Tyler Eifert (back, ankle)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Out: LB Jonathan Freeny (shoulder), TE Greg Scruggs (knee)
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle), RB LeGarrette Blount (hip), RB Brandon Bolden (knee), T Marcus Cannon (calf), LB Jamie Collins (hip), WR Julian Edelman (foot), QB Jimmy Garoppolo (right shoulder), TE Rob Gronkowski (hamstring, illness), LB Shea McClellin (concussion), WR Malcolm Mitchell (hamstring), G Joe Thuney (shoulder), DT Vincent Valentine (back)

CLEVELAND BROWNS at TENNESSEE TITANS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
--Out: G Joel Bitonio (foot), WR Corey Coleman (hand), TE Seth DeValve (knee), QB Josh McCown (left shoulder), TE Randall Telfer (ankle)
--Questionable: TE Gary Barnidge (forearm, hip), DE Xavier Cooper (shoulder), CB Joe Haden (groin), CB Tramon Williams (shoulder)
TENNESSEE TITANS
--Out: DT Al Woods (calf)
--Questionable: CB Cody Riggs (hamstring)

DALLAS COWBOYS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
DALLAS COWBOYS
--Out: T Chaz Green (foot), QB Tony Romo (back), CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstring, hamstring)
--Questionable: K Dan Bailey (back), WR Dez Bryant (knee), CB Morris Claiborne (ankle), RB Lance Dunbar (knee), DE David Irving (concussion), DT Terrell McClain (shoulder), T Tryon Smith (back), LB Kyle Wilber (neck), WR Terrance Williams (shoulder), TE Jason Witten (chest)
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: S Chris Banjo (hamstring), TE Jared Cook (ankle), CB Sam Shields (concussion)
--Questionable: RB Eddie Lacy (ankle), CB Damarious Randall (groin), RB James Starks (knee)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CHICAGO BEARS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Questionable: RB Corey Grant (toe), WR Rashad Greene (Achilles), TE Neal Sterling (foot)
CHICAGO BEARS
--Out: CB Deiondre' Hall (ankle)
--Doubtful: QB Jay Cutler (right thumb), DT Eddie Goldman (ankle), RB Jeremy Langford (ankle)
--Questionable: LB Sam Acho (ribs), CB Bryce Callahan (hamstring), RB Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring), LB Leonard Floyd (calf), LB Jerrell Freeman (wrist), WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), G Kyle Long (shoulder), T Bobby Massie (ankle), TE Zach Miller (ribs), CB Tracy Porter (knee), WR Eddie Royal (calf), G Josh Sitton (shoulder), LB Willie Young (knee, elbow)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at OAKLAND RAIDERS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
None listed
OAKLAND RAIDERS
--Out: G Vadal Alexander (ankle), RB Latavius Murray (toe), T Menelik Watson (calf)
--Questionable: S Nate Allen (quadricep), G Jon Feliciano (calf), RB Taiwan Jones (knee), T Matt McCants (knee), LB Malcolm Smith (quadriceps), TE Clive Walford (knee)

LOS ANGELES RAMS at DETROIT LIONS
LOS ANGELES RAMS
--Out: CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle)
--Questionable: DT Michael Brockers (hip), DE William Hayes (ankle), WR Brian Quick (calf), DE Robert Quinn (shoulder), G Cody Wichmann (ankle)
DETROIT LIONS
--Out: TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (knee, quadriceps), DT Haloti Ngata (shoulder), RB Theo Reddick (ankle)
--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), WR Anquan Boldin (ankle), S Don Carey (ribs), DT A'Shawn Robinson (shoulder), G Laken Tomlinson (neck), RB Dwayne Washington (ankle), G Larry Warford (hip)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at WASHINGTON REDSKINS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
--Questionable: DT Fletcher Cox (ankle), CB Leodis McKelvin (hamstring)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
--Out: WR Josh Doctson (Achilles)
--Questionable: CB Bashaud Breeland (ankle), S Su'a Cravens (concussion), CB Dashaun Phillips (hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (concussion)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: T Marcus Gilbert (ankle), DE Cameron Heyward (hamstring), LB Ryan Shazier (knee), S Shamarko Thomas (groin), C Cody Wallace (knee), WR Markus Wheaton (shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Sammie Coates (finger)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: TE Jordan Cameron (concussion), CB Xavien Howard (knee)
--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (knee), RB Arian Foster (hamstring), WR Jakeem Grant (ankle), TE MarQueis Gary (calf), LB Jelani Jenkins (groin), S Reshad Jones (groin), G Anthony Steen (ankle), T Laremy Tunsil (ankle)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at BUFFALO BILLS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
--Out: CB Jimmie Ward (quadriceps)
--Questionable: LB Ahmad Brooks (groin), DT DeForest Buckner (foot), DT Glenn Dorsey (knee), S Jaquiski Tartt (quadricep)
BUFFALO BILLS
--Doubtful: DT Marcell Dareus (hamstring)
--Questionable: LB Zach Brown (foot), DT Corbin Bryant (ankle), TE Charles Clay (knee), T Cordy Glenn (ankle), T Cyrus Kouandjio (ankle), C Patrick Lewis (knee), P Colton Schmidt (right quadricep), CB Corey White (shoulder), S Aaron Williams (ankle)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at HOUSTON TEXANS on Sunday night
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
--Out: C Jonotthan Harrison (illness), DT Zach Kerr (ankle), WR Donte Moncrief (shoulder)
--Questionable: WR Quan Bray (shin), CB Darius Butler (hand), WR T.Y. Hilton (hip), CB Patrick Robinson (knee, hip)
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Out: G Jeff Allen (concussion), TE Stephen Anderson (hamstring), S Quintin Demps (calf), RB Jonathan Grimes (ankle), LB Brian Peters (quadricep)
--Questionable: WR Will Fuller (hamstring), CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring), T Derek Newton (ankle)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: The Falcons face another very tough test in Week 6
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first loss since last December. We talk about the opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Denver had to start rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch on Sunday against Atlanta, and it was rough sledding. Lynch was sacked six times and threw an interception, and the Broncos (4-1 SU and ATS) lost 23-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

San Diego (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had its chances to beat Oakland or at least force overtime, but had a late field goal blocked in a 34-31 road loss as a 3.5-point underdog.

“We had a tough time with this number,” Childs said. “The Chargers are just beat up and arguably the most injured of any team in the NFL. They looked flat-out gassed in the second half against Oakland and now have to play on a short week.”

Childs said the opening number for this Thursday night game comes with an asterisk, not knowing whether Lynch is starting or Trevor Siemian can return from a shoulder injury.

“The Broncos have serious questions at quarterback, and without definitive word as to who will start, Lynch or Siemian, we have placed half-limits on this prime-time matchup until we get word,” Childs said. “Before Sunday’s game, Lynch wasn’t much of a downgrade from Siemian. After what we saw against the Falcons, we were absolutely wrong. He’s a big-time downgrade, in my opinion.

“If it’s Siemian who starts, we’ll go to Broncos -4. If it’s Lynch, then the Broncos go down to 2.5-point road favorite.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9)

Tom Brady returned in Week 5, and it was like he never left. Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout of Cleveland as New England (4-1 SU and ATS) covered the 10-point spread. Cincinnati went off as a 2.5-point chalk at Dallas, but lost 28-14 to fall to 2-3 SU and ATS.

“I’m not sure we can open this line high enough,” Childs said. “The Patriots looked like world beaters with Brady back in charge, and the Bengals looked pathetic against the Cowboys. But as good as the Pats looked, it was against arguably the worst team in the NFL and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

“The Bengals are in a must-win. They simply can’t afford another loss, and you have to think they bring a desperate effort. We know the public is going to bet the Patriots, so as much as we believe the number should be around 7 or 7.5, we hung 9 and will charge a bit of a tax for Pats backers.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (OFF)

Dallas continued rolling behind its rookies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott threw for 227 yards and a TD, and Elliott racked up 134 yards and two TDs on just 15 carries – including a 60-yard score – as the Cowboys beat Cincinnati 28-14 catching 2.5 points at home.

Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) topped the New York Giants 23-16, pushing as a 7-point home fave. But because that was the Sunday night game, Childs said he was holding off on posting the line for Cowboys-Packers.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their big home win over Carolina, the Falcons (4-1 SU and ATS) were in control throughout at Denver on Sunday, winning 23-16 as a 3.5-point ‘dog.

However, Seattle will have an extra week of preparation for this contest, since it had a bye in Week 5. The Seahawks (3-1 SU and ATS) topped the New York Jets 27-17 laying 1 point on the road in Week 4.

“This is a very difficult spot for the Falcons, off their win against the Broncos,” Childs said. “Atlanta has to travel on back-to-back weeks and play a rested Seahawks team. While the Falcons looked impressive on the road, it was against a rookie quarterback who looked overwhelmed in his debut as a starter.

“We opened the Seahawks a solid 7-point favorite and immediately took sharp money on the Falcons. We got off 7 and went down to Seattle -6.5, which is our current number. We’ve had good two-way action at 6.5, and I believe we’ll be at this number for a while.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Nevada approves stadium funding for Raiders
By The Sports Xchange

The Oakland Raiders moved one step closer to making a move to Las Vegas a reality on Friday.
State lawmakers in Nevada approved $750 million in public funding for a stadium in Las Vegas by a vote of 16-5 in the Senate and 28-13 in the Assembly. Governor Brian Sandoval, who has shown support for the stadium, now needs to sign off.
"I would like to thank Governor Sandoval, the Southern Nevada Tourism Infrastructure Committee, and the members of the Nevada Legislature on this historic day," Raiders owner Mark Davis said in a statement. "All parties have worked extremely hard to develop and approve this tremendous stadium project that will serve as a proud new home for the entire Raider Nation."
The $750 million is expected to come from a Las Vegas-area hotel tax, though taxpayers would be on the hook if the tax fails to provide the expected windfall.
The Raiders and Las Vegas have been circling each other since NFL owners voted in favor of moving the Rams to Los Angeles after last season instead of Oakland and San Diego. Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is expected to contribute $650 million while Davis will kick in another $500 million for the proposed 65,000-seat stadium.

--Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, officially listed as questionable, will start Sunday's game at New Orleans barring a setback in the concussion protocol.
Coach Ron Rivera told reporters that the reigning MVP still has to get final clearance from an independent physician. Newton is expected to meet with the independent physician later Friday.
Newton was a full participant in practice the past two days.
Newton, who sat out the Panthers' 17-14 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night due to repercussions from the concussion he sustained in a Week 4 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, returned to practice Wednesday in a limited role.

--Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed was listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Reed, the Redskins' leading receiver, has been dealing with a concussion since Tuesday when he reported issues to the team. Reed still needs to be cleared by an independent doctor before he could suit up against the Eagles.
Washington ruled rookie receiver Josh Doctson (Achilles) out of the contest on the Friday injury report. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland (ankle), linebacker/safety Su'a Cravens (concussion) and Dashaun Phillips (hamstring) joined Reed in being listed as questionable.
This is the sixth documented concussion for Reed dating to his college days at the University of Florida. He had concussions in 2011 and 2012 at Florida, then had two concussions as an NFL rookie in 2013. He had his fifth concussion last season but still played in 15 games, including one playoff contest.

--New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski did not practice and is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury/illness for Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Gronkowski was a limited participant at practice on Wednesday and Thursday. His absence on Friday was due to an undisclosed illness.
The four-time Pro Bowler was sidelined for the Patriots' first two games, but caught five passes for 109 yards last Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.
New England has ruled two players out for Sunday's game; linebacker Jonathan Freeny (shoulder) and tight end Greg Scruggs (knee).

--Steve Smith Sr. leads a lengthy injury report for the Baltimore Ravens that could see as many as five starters sit out Sunday's visit to the New York Giants.
Smith (ankle) is listed as doubtful on Friday's injury report along with guard Marshall Yanda (shoulder), left tackle Ronnie Stanley (foot), linebacker C.J. Mosley (hamstring) and kick returner Devin Hester (thigh). Linebacker Elvis Dumervil (foot) has already been ruled out.
The Ravens are preparing for their first game with new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, who took over when Marc Trestman was fired on Monday.
Smith leads Baltimore with 27 catches for 310 yards and owns five of the team's 12 receptions of 20 yards or more.

--Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the New England Patriots.
Eifert, who has not yet played in a regular-season game this season, was the only Cincinnati player listed on Friday's injury report. All other players previously listed were full participants in Friday's walk-through.
Eifert sustained a back injury last week just as he was recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the Pro Bowl. He did not practice this week but was able to get some work on the rehab field Friday.
The 26-year-old Eifert, the Bengals' first-round pick in 2013 out of Notre Dame, caught 52 passes for 615 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, a franchise record for TDs by a tight end.

--Hall of Famer Roger Staubach feels the Dallas Cowboys should stick with rookie Dak Prescott as their starting quarterback as long as they continue to win, even if Tony Romo is healthy enough to play.
Staubach has been impressed with Prescott leading the Cowboys to a 4-1 start while Romo recovers from a fractured back he suffered in the preseason.
"Tony is a fantastic football player," Staubach said, via the Dallas Morning News. "We won the Super Bowl in 1971 and I separated my shoulder in the exhibition season of '72, and Craig Morton was the quarterback and took over and when I came back healthy probably eight or nine games later -- that was a 14-game schedule -- Craig was winning.
"We were winning as a team. I understood it. The momentum was there and you don't want to mess around with the quarterback position and Craig was playing very well."

--The Cleveland Browns placed starting left guard Joel Bitonio on injured reserve after he suffered a mid-foot sprain last week.
Coach Hue Jackson said Bitonio is done for the season.
Bitonio, a second-round pick in 2014, started all five games this season to help the Browns average 5.0 yards per carry and rank fifth in the NFL with 624 rushing yards.
Bitonio sustained the injury during last Sunday's 33-13 loss to the New England Patriots. Surgery has not been ruled out. Center Cameron Erving is expected to return Sunday against the Tennessee Titans after a health scare in Week 2.

--The Carolina Panthers brought back defensive end Wes Horton on a one-year deal Friday and waived wide receiver Damiere Byrd.
Horton has played 34 games for Carolina over the past three seasons, recording six sacks and 41 tackles. He was released prior to the start of the regular season.
Horton is a reliable run-stopping defensive end and with defensive linemen Vernon Butler out with an ankle sprain and Paul Soliai dealing with a foot injury, the Panthers needed another player up front.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: The Falcons face another very tough test in Week 6
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first loss since last December. We talk about the opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Denver had to start rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch on Sunday against Atlanta, and it was rough sledding. Lynch was sacked six times and threw an interception, and the Broncos (4-1 SU and ATS) lost 23-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

San Diego (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had its chances to beat Oakland or at least force overtime, but had a late field goal blocked in a 34-31 road loss as a 3.5-point underdog.

“We had a tough time with this number,” Childs said. “The Chargers are just beat up and arguably the most injured of any team in the NFL. They looked flat-out gassed in the second half against Oakland and now have to play on a short week.”

Childs said the opening number for this Thursday night game comes with an asterisk, not knowing whether Lynch is starting or Trevor Siemian can return from a shoulder injury.

“The Broncos have serious questions at quarterback, and without definitive word as to who will start, Lynch or Siemian, we have placed half-limits on this prime-time matchup until we get word,” Childs said. “Before Sunday’s game, Lynch wasn’t much of a downgrade from Siemian. After what we saw against the Falcons, we were absolutely wrong. He’s a big-time downgrade, in my opinion.

“If it’s Siemian who starts, we’ll go to Broncos -4. If it’s Lynch, then the Broncos go down to 2.5-point road favorite.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9)

Tom Brady returned in Week 5, and it was like he never left. Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout of Cleveland as New England (4-1 SU and ATS) covered the 10-point spread. Cincinnati went off as a 2.5-point chalk at Dallas, but lost 28-14 to fall to 2-3 SU and ATS.

“I’m not sure we can open this line high enough,” Childs said. “The Patriots looked like world beaters with Brady back in charge, and the Bengals looked pathetic against the Cowboys. But as good as the Pats looked, it was against arguably the worst team in the NFL and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

“The Bengals are in a must-win. They simply can’t afford another loss, and you have to think they bring a desperate effort. We know the public is going to bet the Patriots, so as much as we believe the number should be around 7 or 7.5, we hung 9 and will charge a bit of a tax for Pats backers.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (OFF)

Dallas continued rolling behind its rookies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott threw for 227 yards and a TD, and Elliott racked up 134 yards and two TDs on just 15 carries – including a 60-yard score – as the Cowboys beat Cincinnati 28-14 catching 2.5 points at home.

Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) topped the New York Giants 23-16, pushing as a 7-point home fave. But because that was the Sunday night game, Childs said he was holding off on posting the line for Cowboys-Packers.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their big home win over Carolina, the Falcons (4-1 SU and ATS) were in control throughout at Denver on Sunday, winning 23-16 as a 3.5-point ‘dog.

However, Seattle will have an extra week of preparation for this contest, since it had a bye in Week 5. The Seahawks (3-1 SU and ATS) topped the New York Jets 27-17 laying 1 point on the road in Week 4.

“This is a very difficult spot for the Falcons, off their win against the Broncos,” Childs said. “Atlanta has to travel on back-to-back weeks and play a rested Seahawks team. While the Falcons looked impressive on the road, it was against a rookie quarterback who looked overwhelmed in his debut as a starter.

“We opened the Seahawks a solid 7-point favorite and immediately took sharp money on the Falcons. We got off 7 and went down to Seattle -6.5, which is our current number. We’ve had good two-way action at 6.5, and I believe we’ll be at this number for a while.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening Las Vegas betting lines for Week 6 of the 2016 NFL season, with early moves and differences among books noted. Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night.

Thursday, Oct. 13

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at San Diego Chargers

The opening number of this Thursday nighter was hung with the assumption that Trevor Siemian will not be back, according to Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Should Siemian be ready to go on Thursday, the line would be in the 3, 3 (-120) range.

“He wasn’t even dressed as the backup (Sunday). I’d be shocked if he can play in four days,” Salmons said.

With rookie Paxton Lynch in for Siemian, Denver lost on Sunday for the first time this season, 23-16 to Atlanta.

“The quarterback meant more than we all thought,” Salmons added. “I didn’t think there’d be that much of a dropoff, but there was today.”

Sunday, Oct. 16

Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots (-8)

When the Westgate released its look-ahead lines for Week 6 last Tuesday, sharp bettors took Cincinnati +7, pushing the number to 6.5. Then, the Bengals had their clocks cleaned in Dallas, and next week’s game at New England was reposted New England -7.5, a number early bettors laid and pushed to -8.

Salmons said of Cincy’s showing against the Cowboys, “That seemed like a good spot for them. They had the Thursday night game (last week) and the extra time, and Dallas a little bit banged up – no Dez Bryant today. Cincinnati didn’t even show up.”

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3)

CG Technology was dealing the Giants a tick higher than the Westgate was on Sunday night, at -3 (-120).

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

While most books wait to learn more about Cam Newton’s status before opening wagering on this game, CG Technology hung Carolina -2 on Sunday night before a move to -3. Salmons said where his shop opens the game depends not only on whether Newton can go, but also on how the Panthers and backup QB Derek Anderson look Monday night against the Bucs. Should it be Anderson and not Newton again next week, the Saints would be about field-goal favorites, Salmons said.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Miami Dolphins

The Westgate bounced between 7 and 7.5 in Sunday night wagering on this AFC contest, while the Wynn opened Pitt -8 and was bet down to -7. Other shops sat at 7.5.

The Steelers were laying -7 or -7.5 for most of the week for their at home vs. the Jets, so it’s a bit strange to see next week’s road game against Miami posted at the same number.

“It’s an inflated line, and it’s just measuring what’s expected from the market place,” said Salmons.”… 7.5 seems crazy to me right now if both teams are healthy.”

Salmons added of the Dolphins after their poor showing in a home loss to Tennessee on Sunday, “There was so much fanfare about their Adam Gase hire, and I all hear is hear they can’t simplify their offense enough for (Ryan) Tannehill because he doesn’t understand it. It looks like the same Miami to me.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2)

Several books opened Chicago -1.5 but moved swiftly to -2 during Sunday night betting action.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

CG Technology opened the suddenly-hot Bills -7, the Wynn went -8, and the two books met in the middle.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Books were split between 3 and 3.5 on this NFC contest, as Detroit regained a modicum of respect by beating the Eagles outright as home underdogs Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

Cody Kessler went injured during the Browns’ loss to New England, and the Browns were down to their fourth quarterback, Charlie Whitehurst. Don’t expect much difference in this line whether it’s Kessler of Whitehurst under center next week in Tennessee.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Washington Redskins

Washington opened as the 1- to 2-point favorite for next week’s game against its NFC East rival, but the Eagles were bet to chalk status within minutes, despite losing at Detroit on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1.5)

The 4-1 Raiders were being dealt as 1- and 2-point favorites around Las Vegas on Sunday night, and if the spread holds, this will be the first time since 2012 that Oakland lays points to the Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Early bettors snapped up the +7 that was offered as the opening number at several shops Sunday night. The Falcons were fantastic in their win in Denver, their fourth straight, but this game at Seattle looks like a very difficult spot. Back-to-back road trips west against the likes of Denver and Seattle, plus the fact the Seahawks are coming off a bye.

“We keep talking that they’re last year’s Carolina. They just keep impressing,” Salmons said of the Falcons. “You look at their schedule and they have this two-game stretch where they play at Denver and at Seattle, and I guarantee if you said ‘we’ll give you one win’, they would have taken that and run. They not only won, they won easily (Sunday). That score’s misleading. That was a great win for Atlanta today.”

But next week could be a letdown spot for the Falcons, Salmons believes. “They’ve just had too many good things happen to them, and Seattle has the bye week, plus the travel.”

Sharps laid -7 with Seattle on the Westgate’s look-ahead lines, and despite Sunday’s move in the other direction, Salmons said, “I’m pretty sure the line will go higher as we get closer to game day.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Dog bettors grabbed the Dallas +5.5 hung at the Wynn. They like what they are seeing with the Cowboys, who rolled over Cincinnati for their fourth straight win and cover.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

This line danced between 3 and 3.5 at various books around Las Vegas on Sunday night. Houston gets back into its comfort zone next week – at home against middling competition. The Texans are 3-0 at home this season, with wins over Kansas City, Chicago and Tennessee, while their two losses have come in blowout fashion on the road against contenders Minnesota and New England.

Monday, Oct. 10

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

CG was the only book in Vegas to post a number on this game Sunday night, as others hold off because of Carson Palmer’s concussion. Salmons sees the game in the 7.5, 8 range with a healthy Palmer and 4.5 to 5.5 with Drew Stanton.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Bill O’Brien has to be pulling out his hair about now. His Texans have been able to beat mediocre and poor teams (Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego) but have shriveled up into the fetal position against better competition (New England, Minnesota). Now comes a real AFC South test against the Colts, and an opportunity to take control of the division and put Indy into a good-sized hole.

But nothing is guaranteed, not after Brock Osweiler stunk out the joint against the Vikings – 19 for 42, one interception, four sacks. This is definitely not a must-win division game for Houston, but if the Texans are going to replace Indianapolis as the AFC South heavyweight, it would be a nice get against a team that has more problems than even the Texans do. The early line (Texans -3.5) has held firm and doesn’t seem likely to move.

Game to wait on

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

This game will give everyone a pretty good idea if the Falcons are playing with fool’s gold. So far, so good, with the Falcons pummeling teams for the last month after getting ambushed by the Bucs on opening day. Over the last two weeks Atlanta has defeated both of last season’s Super Bowl teams, scoring 48 on the Panthers and defeating the Broncos in Denver in a game that was not as close as the final (23-16) margin.

Importantly to bettors, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS, thanks to rejuvenated QB Matt Ryan – who is by far the league’s top-rated passer and over just five games has 177 more passing yards than the No. 2 passer (Andy Dalton). A win at Seattle would propel the Falcons into the upper tier of contenders, and bettors like the 6 they’re getting so much that the number might melt to 5.5.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (45.5)

Things are slipping away from the snake-bitten Chargers, who can’t seem to close the deal. They’ve lost four close games (Kansas City, New Orleans, New Orleans and Oakland). The O/U line on SD games this year has averaged 50, and the Chargers have covered that number four times. The problem is that Denver is breaking in another new QB (Paxton Lynch), who will be playing just his third game.

If you think that the Chargers’ 8th-ranked offense will be able to move the ball against the Broncos’ 6th-ranked defense, an over play should be considered. Key factor here is that the game will be in San Diego, where the Chargers tend to score a lot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vikings look for respect

Should Vikings Be Getting More Love from Oddsmakers?

There is just one team in the NFL still with a zero in the loss column through Week 5 and that's the Minnesota Vikings.

So one might assume the Vikings are the Super Bowl betting favorites?

That would be false as Minnesota is +850 to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history. That trails the New England Patriots (+400), Pittsburgh Steelers (+600), Green Bay Packers (+800), a team the Vikings already have beaten this season, and Seattle Seahawks (+800).

The Vikings have started 5-0 for the fifth time in the last 20 years. On three of the previous occasions, they lost the NFC Championship Game. In 2003, they missed the playoffs after starting 6-0.

Minnesota wasn't supposed to be this good after losing starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater on the eve of the season to a very serious knee injury. The team also lost running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil to season-ending injuries. And you can add another to the list as the Vikings announced on Monday that starting right tackle Andre Smith was being placed on injured reserve and was to have surgery to repair a triceps injury.

Many around the NFL thought that Vikings general manager Rick Spielman vastly overpaid in sending a 2017 first- and conditional fourth-round pick following the Bridgewater injury to the Philadelphia Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford. Now that looks like a steal for the Vikings.

Bradford is completing 70.4 percent of his passes (second in the NFL) with six touchdowns and not a single interception in his four starts (backup Shaun Hill started Week 1 as Bradford learned the offense). That's good for a rating of 109.8 that's also second in the league. Sam Bradford for NFL MVP? The Vikings are only the second team since 1933 to start 5-0 without throwing an interception, joining the 1969 Los Angeles Rams.

As solid as Bradford has been, it's important to note that the defense hasn't lost any top players to season-ending injuries as that group has been stellar.

In Sunday's 31-13 win over Houston, the Texans were held to 214 yards and 1-for-13 third-down conversions. No team has scored more than 16 points on Minnesota. it is No. 4 in total defense (287.6 yards per game), No. 1 in scoring defense (12.6 ppg), No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-11), tops in yards per play against (4.4) and tied for first with 19 sacks.

The Vikings create pre-snap confusion by disguising blitzes and shifting players. Against Houston, they had four sacks, 13 quarterback hits and eight pass breakups. Sunday’s victory was the ninth game in a row, dating to last season, that the Vikings gave up 17 points or fewer.

Minnesota now has one of the best home-field advantages as its new U.S. Bank Stadium as it's already considered the loudest stadium in the NFL.

Can the Vikings finish as the NFC's top seed so the road to the Super Bowl through the NFC goes through Minneapolis?

The Vikings are on the bye this week. Their remaining schedule looks to be one of the easiest in the NFL.

In Week 7, they go to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been a surprise but may have been exposed in the Week 5 loss in Detroit. After that, there's no team on the schedule with a current winning record until Dec. 1 against Dallas, but that's at U.S. Bank Stadium. The only other game vs. a winning team is Week 16 at Green Bay.

Despite holding a one-game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North and already with a head-to-head win, the Vikings and Packers are both -110 to win the division.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 6 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 6:

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45)

The first twist of Week 6 comes on Thursday night. Denver is at San Diego where the Chargers have been downright brutal to their faithful. Throw out Denver’s last game as it didn’t have its starting quarterback ready to go. But what I see here is a pretty stereotypical, mass following trend of going Over on a marquee game.

In typical fashion, the tip-off was the initial move lower than the opening 46. I’ve see this a million times. This is a sure bet that money will fly on the Over as soon as Nevada parlay cards are printed and carved into stone. Every week, I suggest to the Nevada sportsbooks to pump up the favorites and totals on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

But this 45 looks suspect. With all due respect for Denver’s defense, San Diego’s lowest total output this season has been 48 points. The other scores landed 65, 69, 52, and 60. Before last game, the Broncos were scoring at an even 30 points per game. The Chargers will be in full crisis mode on national TV and should provide some fireworks. Denver will keep pace. This looks to go Over so take this as early as you can because this is only going one way come kickoff.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)

This is another game that I think oddsmakers were a little light with the total. Before last game, Atlanta’s game scores hit 55, 63, 77 and 81. Now, that’s a trend I like to see especially when the opposition is starting to crank on offense as well.

Both quarterbacks are in sync, especially Ryan who has thrown 12 TDs and only two interceptions to date. His 121.6 rating is hard to overlook. We know Seattle can go toe-to-toe with anyone and these two teams suggest a high-powered, open-game strategy. Eight of Atlanta’s 11 different receivers are averaging in double-digit yards per catch.

I would have had this total around 50 but if the sportsbook gods believe this is lower, I think they’re playing with fire. If you like it, take the Over early in a game that should be a fun one to watch.

San Francisco at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)

Speaking of trends that I like to see, you can only read the San Francisco-Buffalo one way. San Francisco is going through its predicted meltdown and we get a quarterback change before the upcoming game in Orchard Park, with Colin Kaepernick starting over Blaine Gabbert. As a longtime resident of the Buffalo area, I know the winds can play havoc on the passing game and this is where I see the margin come into play.

Buffalo has been winning with the run game and as long as QB Taylor doesn’t lose the game, the team is gelling nicely into a well-balanced offensive threat. Their defense will be stronger with the return of DT Marcell Dareus and the momentum of three straight wins spilling over to a home field spells nothing but dominance against a troubling San Francisco team.

San Francisco will be forced to play long ball when it gets behind and this is where Buffalo’s defense and special teams will shine. If the Niners change quarterbacks during the game, this may cause even more stagnation. Especially if any non-football related matters come into play.

Frankly speaking, ride the team that’s doing well, equipped with the momentum and one that will be looking at a game they consider a “must-win”. San Francisco will have its day but the red flags are flying all around this team for now. Nothing points to a San Francisco turnaround this Sunday.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 47)

Both the Jets and Cardinals are vastly underperforming. Arizona just doesn’t look ready to go and, coupled with the fact that Carson Palmer won’t be at 100 percent if playing at all, the Cardinals are unable to get out of their own way just yet.

We all know the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests but a deeper look may reveal that their 1-4 start may be justified. New York has lost to Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati and Kansas City: not exactly your cellar dwellers of the league. Arizona beat San Francisco and Tampa Bay, not exactly the league’s elite. Getting +7.5 with a semi-quality team that has to be thinking “must-win” at this point seems like a steal. Bettors like to see motivated teams on the slate going into battle with their money.

The Jets have capable players and should get a better game out of QB Fitzpatrick. The track will be fast in Arizona and we’re expecting the Jets offense to click and keep pace with whatever Arizona has to offer - especially if Drew Stanton is the signal caller for the Cardinals. If you like the Jets, get the hook while you can and have a sweat on Monday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Raise your hand if you predicted the Minnesota Vikings would be the final unbeaten team standing through the first five weeks of the 2016 NFL season. Guessing your hand is down unless you are a completely biased Vikings fan. It's shocking to me this team is 5-0 considering the season-ending injuries suffered by QB Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson.

So now I'm going to type something I never thought possible: Sam Bradford for MVP? Bradford, who didn't play Week 1 for Minnesota as he was still learning the playbook following a trade from Philadelphia, is the NFL's second-highest rated passer (109.8) following another turnover-free game in Sunday's blowout win over Houston. Bradford completed 22 of 30 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns -- despite playing without top receiver Stefon Diggs -- and hasn't been picked off yet. Minnesota is only the second team since 1933 to start 5-0 without throwing an interception, joining the 1969 Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings' record for consecutive games without an interception by a single QB is five, by Fran Tarkenton in 1973. I don't actually believe that Bradford wins the MVP Award, but he deserves some consideration. My pick for that at the moment is Ben Roethlisberger barely over Matt Ryan.

If Minnesota gets the NFC's top seed it's going to be tough to beat the Vikings because by all reports they have the loudest home-field advantage in the NFL these days in that new stadium. Oddsmakers still aren't convinced as Minnesota is just a fifth-favorite to win Super Bowl LI at +850. The Vikings are off this week and visit Philadelphia in Week 7. I think they stay unbeaten until Week 10 at Washington.

Here are some Week 6 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday's game (Broncos-Chargers), the marquee Sunday matchup (Falcons-Seahawks) or the Monday night game (Jets-Cardinals) as I will be previewing them here individually. The Bucs join the Vikings on the bye.

Bengals at Patriots (-8, 47.5): Or maybe Tom Brady could win his third career MVP Award even though he won't play more than 12 regular-season games. Brady's revenge tour against Commissioner Roger Goodell got off to a roaring start on Sunday as Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a rout of the Browns in Cleveland. It was Brady's first time playing with new tight end Martellus Bennett and he caught all three scores. Brady was 12 of 15 throwing to Patriots he had never played with before (Bennett, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell). Brady joined Warren Moon (Seattle in 1997) as the only quarterbacks age 39 or older to have at least 400 passing yards and three touchdown passes in a game since the merger. Brady has 38 career games with at least 350 passing yards, the second-most in NFL history (the Saints' Drew Brees has 51). New England has a scary mismatch when it goes to two tight-end sets with Bennett and Rob Gronkowski (five catches for 109 yards vs. the Browns). It should be a zoo at Gillette Stadium in Brady's 2016 home debut. As for the Bengals, I thought they would win in Dallas on Sunday but it was over at halftime with Cincinnati trailing 21-0 in a 28-14 defeat. Cincy running back Jeremy Hill had to leave the game after suffering a chest injury, so monitor his status. The pick: Patriots and "over."

Browns at Titans (-6.5, TBA): This total hasn't been posted yet because we don't know who will start at quarterback for the laughable Browns. Rookie Cody Kessler, who entered the season as the third-stringer, had to leave Sunday's loss vs. the Patriots with chest/rib injuries. So that means we could see Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst, a former Titan, start. He's in his eighth season and has started in Seattle and Tennessee and is 2-7 as a starter. The Browns also will probably use receiver Terrelle Pryor under center on certain plays as well. Even in their said history since 1999, the Browns have had to use four starting QBs in a season just once, in 2008. The last time a team started four quarterbacks in six games was 1968 when the Broncos did it with Jim LeClair, John McCormick, Marlin Briscoe and Steve Tensi. Literally never heard of those guys. Tennessee pulled off a 30-17 upset in Miami on Sunday as Marcus Mariota threw for three scores and the Titans rushed for 235 yards. The pick: Titans and under regardless of the total.

Ravens at Giants (-3, 44.5): Baltimore might be the most interesting team in the NFL thus far as every game has gone right down to the wire. The Ravens lucked out a bit in winning their first three but lost a second straight at home on Sunday, 16-10 to Washington. And Coach John Harbaugh dumped offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, the former Bears head coach, on Monday. The Ravens ran the ball well in the first quarter vs. the Redskins, who are not good at stopping the run. But then the team basically abandoned that game plan for some reason. Trestman had replaced Gary Kubiak after the 2014 season but made it only 21 games. This brings to mind the 2012 season when the Ravens lost to the Redskins and Harbaugh fired OC Cam Cameron and replaced him with Jim Caldwell. The Ravens would go on to win the Super Bowl that year. Don't see that happening here. Quarterbacks coach Marty Mornhinweg, a former offensive coordinator of the 49ers, Eagles and Jets and head coach of the Detroit Lions, will take over this time. New York's offense is also in a funk as the Giants have lost three straight after a 2-0 start. Eli Manning seems to be getting worse each game. He's not getting much help from his rushing attack as the Giants had only 43 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss in Green Bay. The pick: Giants and under.

Steelers at Dolphins (+7.5, 48): I thought the Dolphins got it right this offseason when they hired highly-regarded Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase as their new head coach. But that team is an utter disappointment following a pretty stunning 30-17 home loss to Tennessee. Gase says he's sticking with quarterback Ryan Tannehill even though he threw for only 191 yards in the loss, his third game of the year with fewer than 200 yards. I guess there's little point to turn the team over to journeyman backup Matt Moore because he's not the future. But I do expect Miami to address the QB position in the 2017 draft if Tannehill doesn't turn things around. His quarterback rating is the lowest it has been since 2013. Tannehill is scheduled to cost the Dolphins $20.3 million against the cap next year. Why is Roethlisberger my MVP thus far? After throwing for four scores in Sunday's easy win over the Jets, Roethlisberger has 15 touchdown passes this year, the most ever by a Steelers quarterback in the first five games of a season. The pick: Steelers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3, 53)

Panthers’ putrid secondary vs. Saints’ home cooking

This isn't the 2015 edition of the Carolina Panthers - not by a long shot. Just one season after reaching the Super Bowl, the Panthers are in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason altogether after opening the season with losses in four of their first five games. Inconsistency on offense certainly hasn't helped, but the major difference between this season and last is a pass defense that has looked largely overmatched in the absence of backfield anchor Josh Norman.

Several metrics work against the Panthers' defense, but the one that generates the greatest concern heading into this week's tilt in New Orleans is how often Carolina is getting beaten for significant gains. The Panthers rank 30th in average opponent yards per completion (12.4); only the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been worse. But changes are in the offing, with the Panthers cutting loose Bene Benwikere, who was expected to take over as the team's top corner.

Yet, while Benwikere had a dismal start the season, his absence this week only thins out the Carolina secondary heading into an encounter with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is particularly ruthless at home, averaging 12.2 yards per completion - sixth in the league - while posting a 112.3 passer rating at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (T-5). It's probably going to be a long day for the Panthers in the Big Easy.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 47)

Steelers’ third-down excellence vs. Dolphins’ 3D struggles

Ben Roethlisberger and Heinz Field go together like a juicy hamburger and a nice dollop of ketchup (I'm sure you get the reference.) But when Big Ben hits the road, things can get downright ugly. Yet, while Roethlisberger boasts one of the largest home/road chasms among NFL quarterbacks, his proficiency at converting third downs and extending drives - no matter where he plays - will serve him well Sunday against a Dolphins team that hasn't been able to do the same.

The Steelers come into Week 6 with a sensational 49.21 percent conversion rate on third downs - rate surpassed only by the Dallas Cowboys, who have extended drives on half their third-down situations. And the Steelers have been even better on the road so far this season, connecting on 52 percent of their third downs. That means a whole lot of extended drives for a team that ranked a dismal 24th in third-down conversion rate a season ago.

Contrast that to the pitiful Dolphins offense, which enters Sunday's encounter ranked second-last in third-down conversion rate at 29.09 percent. That's even worse than in 2015, when Miami ranked 30th in third-down success (30.73 percent). An inability to extend drives has been the Dolphins' most significant undoing over the first five games; they're the worst team in the league by a wide margin in average time of possession (24:04), nearly 6 1/2 minutes lower than the Steelers' rate.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Le'Veon Bell

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK, 47)

Chiefs’ sluggish starts vs. Raiders’ stingy 1Q defense

The focus in this one will be how the Chiefs, fresh off a bye, will be able to manufacture points against a pass offense that has hemorrhaged points like few other teams in the league. Observers will also be keeping an eye on the Kansas City backfield, with Jamaal Charles having had two more weeks to recover from knee surgery. But this one could come down to whether the Chiefs can overcome a disturbing trend of dreadful first-quarter performances.

Kansas City enters its second divisional game of the season having scored just 10 points in the opening quarter of its first four games; only the Arizona Cardinals, who are still looking for their first 1Q points of the season, have been more inept. The Chiefs have struggled mightily despite having a first-quarter time of possession north of 50 percent; they ranked fifth in first-quarter last season en route to an impressive 11-5 record.

The Raiders won't make things easy Sunday afternoon. Oakland has limited opponents to a pair of field goals over the first five opening quarters it has played last season, making it the stingiest first-quarter team in the NFL. And continuing that trend Sunday will be of utmost importance to the Raiders, who are allowing the second-most points in the second half (17.6). With the Chiefs surrendering just 6.5 second-half points per game, grabbing an early lead is critical for Oakland.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Spencer Ware

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Julio Jones' diminished role vs. Seahawks' shutdown pass defense

Anyone who said prior to the season that the Falcons would be the runaway leader in points through Week 5 was either a major Atlanta apologist, or saw something the rest of us didn't. Led by a rejuvenated Matt Ryan and the most potent two-headed rushing attack in the majors, the Falcons have racked up 175 points through five games. And they've done so without much of a contribution from receiving star Julio Jones, who is in for a brutal day against a relentless Seattle pass defense.

Jones sits third in the NFL in receiving yards with 517, but 300 of those came in one magical performance against the Panthers in Week 4. He has had more than five catches just once, and has seen fewer than nine targets four times. The Falcons have managed to succeed despite an under-reliance on their top offensive weapon, but in order to keep the good times rolling, Ryan will need to lean on Jones as teams key in on the running game.

That might not happen in Seattle, where a well-rested Seahawks team awaits. Quarterbacks to face Seattle have a collective passer rating of 65.6 - the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The Seahawks have permitted just one passing touchdown on the season, while recording a sack on 8.76 percent of their defensive snaps, the fifth-best rate in the league. Jones might break out again one of these weeks, but it probably won't happen in the Pacific Northwest.

Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 6

Week 5 wasn't a great week for big underdogs in the NFL as only the Atlanta Falcons were able to come away with an outright victory. Going into Denver and giving the Broncos their first loss of the year was huge for Atlanta, especially considering they had just beaten the Panthers the week before. The Falcons look to be the class of the NFC South this year, but they find themselves on this list again as the conclude a brutal three-game stretch with a game in Seattle this week.

They are just one of seven teams that qualify as underdogs of +4 or more and it's time to break down who's got the best chance of the outright upset.

Week 6 Underdogs that Qualify

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5); ML (+360)
Miami Dolphins (+8); ML (+300)
San Francisco 49ers (+7.5); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+265)
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5); ML (+210)
Dallas Cowboys (+4); ML (+170)
New York Jets (+8); ML (+290)

My obligatory mention of the Cleveland Browns (+265) this week starts off the feature, and they might actually get some support on the ML this week on the road in Tennessee. They've still got to show me that they can break that goose egg first before I seriously consider a ML wager, but don't be surprised to see if that line comes down by Sunday.

What stands out about the rest of the teams on this list is the fact there are plenty of +7 or more underdogs this week. Obviously that makes it it a little tougher to find a dog that can win outright, especially considering all of them except Miami are on the road. I've already touched on Atlanta's tough date with Seattle, but the Bengals are in Foxboro to take on the Patriots in Tom Brady's first home game since returning, and neither matchup is that appealing.

Atlanta's run of late in beating Denver and Carolina the last two weeks has been impressive, and their offense is tops in the NFL, but it's got to be only a matter of time before this brutal stretch of the schedule catches up with the Falcons and I believe we could see that this week as they travel up to Seattle.

Dallas might be the most obvious choice for an outright victory given they are the only underdog on this list under a touchdown, but sending that rookie duo in the backfield to Lambeau Field for the first time is no easy task. The Cowboys have already received the bulk of the early action on the spread and ML, but they are another underdog I'm going to have to pass on for the ML. That leaves us with a couple of ugly underdogs that have largely disappointed so far in 2016 in the teams from Miami, San Francisco, and New York.

Miami (+300) is the lone home team in this scenario this week and they've got the tough task of beating a Steelers team that has dominated their past two foes. The Steelers outscored KC and NYJ by a 74-27 margin the past two weeks, and are back to being a public darling that everyone loves to back.

That's the story this week as they head to South Beach, but this might turn into one of those tough “trap” spots for the Steelers as they've got a huge showdown with the Patriots next week and they could easily have one eye on that contest.

Furthermore, this is the 2nd of four straight home games for the Miami Dolphins, and if they are going to have a chance to save their season, they've got to get a win this week. At 1-4 SU, the Dolphins realize was a loss this week would do for their campaign and I've got to believe that we will see Miami's best effort to date here.

Of the other two teams mentioned, San Francisco (+270) looks to be the better play even with it being an early 10 am PST start for them in Buffalo. But the 49ers have made the move to Colin Kaepernick at QB and given all the headlines he's made for his protests, putting him in the lineup could serve as a rallying cry for the 49ers.

Buffalo's stock is a little too high at the moment after three straight victories and with two straight divisional games on deck and a tough four-game stretch overall ahead of them, Rex Ryan's bunch could be a little “fat” in reading their press clippings this week and figuring they've just got to show up to get the W.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Underdogs to Watch - Week 6

Week 5 wasn't a great week for big underdogs in the NFL as only the Atlanta Falcons were able to come away with an outright victory. Going into Denver and giving the Broncos their first loss of the year was huge for Atlanta, especially considering they had just beaten the Panthers the week before. The Falcons look to be the class of the NFC South this year, but they find themselves on this list again as the conclude a brutal three-game stretch with a game in Seattle this week.

They are just one of seven teams that qualify as underdogs of +4 or more and it's time to break down who's got the best chance of the outright upset.

Week 6 Underdogs that Qualify

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5); ML (+360)
Miami Dolphins (+8); ML (+300)
San Francisco 49ers (+7.5); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+265)
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5); ML (+210)
Dallas Cowboys (+4); ML (+170)
New York Jets (+8); ML (+290)

My obligatory mention of the Cleveland Browns (+265) this week starts off the feature, and they might actually get some support on the ML this week on the road in Tennessee. They've still got to show me that they can break that goose egg first before I seriously consider a ML wager, but don't be surprised to see if that line comes down by Sunday.

What stands out about the rest of the teams on this list is the fact there are plenty of +7 or more underdogs this week. Obviously that makes it it a little tougher to find a dog that can win outright, especially considering all of them except Miami are on the road. I've already touched on Atlanta's tough date with Seattle, but the Bengals are in Foxboro to take on the Patriots in Tom Brady's first home game since returning, and neither matchup is that appealing.

Atlanta's run of late in beating Denver and Carolina the last two weeks has been impressive, and their offense is tops in the NFL, but it's got to be only a matter of time before this brutal stretch of the schedule catches up with the Falcons and I believe we could see that this week as they travel up to Seattle.

Dallas might be the most obvious choice for an outright victory given they are the only underdog on this list under a touchdown, but sending that rookie duo in the backfield to Lambeau Field for the first time is no easy task. The Cowboys have already received the bulk of the early action on the spread and ML, but they are another underdog I'm going to have to pass on for the ML. That leaves us with a couple of ugly underdogs that have largely disappointed so far in 2016 in the teams from Miami, San Francisco, and New York.

Miami (+300) is the lone home team in this scenario this week and they've got the tough task of beating a Steelers team that has dominated their past two foes. The Steelers outscored KC and NYJ by a 74-27 margin the past two weeks, and are back to being a public darling that everyone loves to back.

That's the story this week as they head to South Beach, but this might turn into one of those tough “trap” spots for the Steelers as they've got a huge showdown with the Patriots next week and they could easily have one eye on that contest.

Furthermore, this is the 2nd of four straight home games for the Miami Dolphins, and if they are going to have a chance to save their season, they've got to get a win this week. At 1-4 SU, the Dolphins realize was a loss this week would do for their campaign and I've got to believe that we will see Miami's best effort to date here.

Of the other two teams mentioned, San Francisco (+270) looks to be the better play even with it being an early 10 am PST start for them in Buffalo. But the 49ers have made the move to Colin Kaepernick at QB and given all the headlines he's made for his protests, putting him in the lineup could serve as a rallying cry for the 49ers.

Buffalo's stock is a little too high at the moment after three straight victories and with two straight divisional games on deck and a tough four-game stretch overall ahead of them, Rex Ryan's bunch could be a little “fat” in reading their press clippings this week and figuring they've just got to show up to get the W.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFL: back to back road games'

In the NFL, winning on the road cab be a challenge at the best of times, winning the second of back to back road games is an even bigger obstable.

This is confirmed by our trusty NFL betting number crunching machine that tells us since the 2011 campaign road teams in the second of back to back games won 175, lost 205 with one tie. Betting wise, roadies are 195-178-8 against the betting line split between 77-58-15 as road chalk, 118-120-7 taking points in enemy territory.

Within those numbers, road teams off a loss have shown a penchant to keep backers happy cashing at a 56.3% clip (116-90-3) in the second of back-2-back road games going 41-19-1 (67.2%) ATS as road chalk, 75-71-2 (50.7%) ATS when taking points in enemy territory. Makes sense, if a team lost on the road last game they'll generally give a bit more effort the following week.

Even more eye-opening - Road favorites off a loss playing a team off a win has produced a sparkling 18-5-1 (75.0%) record against the betting line. Another profitable situation is when a road favorite off a loss takes on a division opponent in the second game. Here, the road favorites is 17-6 (73.9%) against the betting line.

The above mentioned eye-popping situations won't pop up often but these motivated road favorites have certainly passed the test of time and given the hit rate paying attention can pay off handsomely.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Now that most teams are going to be over one-third of the way through their schedules, it’s acceptable to write a few off if they lose this week. San Diego was headed for obscurity, but salvaged its wasteful season with an upset of Denver thanks to its best defensive performance yet. It’s been a fairly strange season thus far, the quality of play has often been grisly and early injuries have definitely played a factor. Don’t expect much to change this weekend. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 6:

Sunday, Oct. 16

Cincinnati at New England: Tom Brady returned and struck up an instant chemistry with Martellus Bennett, finding him for three touchdowns while playing with other new toys like Chris Hogan in a comfortable win over the Browns. Covering a double-digit spread, it felt like Brady got the benefit of an exhibition game in Cleveland, but there’s no question the level of competition increases as he makes his first home start against the Bengals. Despite a 2-3 record, Cincinnati’s defense is capable of getting after Brady and features hard-hitting LB Vontaze Burfict to clash with the Patriots tight ends. Even though TE Tyler Eifert remains out, the Bengals should have Jeremy Hill (shoulder) back in there in an enhanced role after he carried just four times in last week’s loss at Dallas. Cincinnati was uncharacteristically pushed around by the Cowboys, so expecting it to physically answer the bell here is a given. Bill Belichick has owned Marvin Lewis in head-to-head meetings in this series, winning five of six, which includes a 3-0 mark at Foxboro. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: This is one of those games that could swing a season. After opening with three straight victories, the Ravens have dropped two in a row and come into this one frustrated. Already having fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, Baltimore clearly doesn’t want the losing to linger. New York is bringing up the rear in the NFC East, sputtering offensively despite an arsenal of weapons. Eli Manning has replaced Odell Beckham Jr. in taking the majority of the blame for the Giants struggles, but getting into the head of ODB remains a focal point for opponents and has already been accomplished this week with Ravens veteran corner promising to fight if he’s hit after the whistle. Consider that an open invitation for Beckham to become bigger than the game, which Baltimore badly wants to bait him into. Mind games may be its best bet considering its health issues, since LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), LB CJ Mosley (thigh), S Kendrick Lewis (thigh), WRs Steve Smith Jr. (ankle) and Mike Wallace (ribs), G Marshal Yanda and T Rick Wagner are all facing injury concerns and may not be available. The Giants have issues in their secondary since Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both left the Packers loss with groin injuries. Jason Pierre-Paul is suffering through the same ailment but is expected to play, while tight end Larry Donnell still has to get through concussion protocol. The Ravens are 4-1 all-time against the Giants.

Carolina at New Orleans: Consider this an NFC South elimination game. The Saints come off a bye and are at home, but beating the defending conference champs still feels like it would be an upset. Oddsmakers think so too, installing the Panthers as a road favorite despite their struggles. Cam Newton will return from a concussion suffered against Atlanta to help his team avoid what would be a disastrous 1-5 start, but a defense that was once considered one of the NFL’s best has looked ordinary at best. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 28.5 points, the third-largest output in the league. Carolina has won the last three contests to improve to 6-4 since Newton came on board. In those last 10 meetings, these teams have scored 27 or more points on 13 occasions. The Panthers will have RB Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back in the mix too, while New Orleans is hoping to have LBs Dannell Ellerbe and James Laurinaitis back from quad injuries that have impacted their mobility.

Pittsburgh at Miami: They’re ready to quit on Ryan Tannehill in South Florida. The fan base, that is. The team itself is a different story, since first-year Dolphins head coach Adam Gase has provided assurances that Tannehill is his guy the rest of the season as the organization is best-served giving him a full season to put his ups and downs on display. So far, Tannehill’s body of work has been mostly terrible, but his protection has often fallen apart and a lack of a running game hasn’t helped matters. Arian Foster (hamstring) should play for the first time since going out in Week 2, so Miami figure to get a boost on the ground. Tackle Branden Albert and rookie guard Laremy Tunsil also expect to return from ankle injuries, so we’ll see if the Dolphins can avoid hearing boos at home this time around. The Steelers are definitely going to be without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) and are likely to again be missing top LB Ryan Shazier (knee), so the defense could be vulnerable. Miami won the last meeting between these two in 2013, but hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh at home since 1998. Amusingly, the Steelers are hoping to add Hard Rock Stadium to the list since they’ve beaten the Dolphins in the same building this century no matter who held the naming rights (Sun Life, Land Shark, Pro Player).

Jacksonville at Chicago: The loser here gets stuck holding a single win, which means there’s some desperation in play. Brian Hoyer has three 300-yard passing games with multiple touchdowns each time out, so missing Jay Cutler (thumb) for another Sunday really isn’t a big deal. He led the Bears to a win over Detroit in his last home start and has benefited from a strong connection with TE Zach Miller and top wideout Alshon Jeffrey getting healthier. Rookie Jordan Howard has done a nice job replacing the injured Jeremy Langford (ankle), who also may be absent again. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week after beating Indianapolis in London and are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Rest has allowed TEs Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis time to heal up, so the offense will be at full strength as QB Blake Bortles looks to avoid another slow start to try and help his team escape the AFC South basement. Chicago won the last game between these teams 41-3 in Jacksonville back in 2012. The Jags are 1-2 lifetime at Soldier Field.

San Francisco at Buffalo: Colin Kaepernick will make his first start for the 49ers, adding to the drama in upstate New York. Don’t expect a friendly welcome for anyone but the Bills, who are back in town after playing conquering heroes in New England and Los Angeles to climb above .500 after an 0-2 start. Rex Ryan has gotten great play from Tyrod Taylor of late and has seen his defense overcome the extended absence of Marcell Dareus to get their act together. San Francisco’s offense has run a lot of plays under Chip Kelly, but limited success with the downfield passing game has made them predictable. The hope is that Kaepernick’s speed and ability to throw the deep ball will open things up, but he hasn’t played since the preseason finale and hasn’t appeared in a regular-season game since last November, wrapping up a truly awful run before being benched and ultimately undergoing shoulder surgery.

Los Angeles at Detroit: After pulling off consecutive upsets of the Seahawks, Bucs and Cardinals, the Rams were tamed at home by Buffalo to fall out of first in the NFC West. With Case Keenum under center, the defense is going to have to be the driving force for L.A. week in and week out and couldn’t get stops against a Bills offense thrived running the ball. After losing Ameer Abdullah, the Lions aren’t equipped to thrive similarly, although they have creatively gotten Theo Riddick the ball out of the backfield. He’s been out of practice all week with an ankle injury and could be a game-time call, so Detroit signed Justin Forsett in an effort to get someone who can run between the tackles. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well, which made the Lions’ upset of Philadelphia even more surprising. Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) could finally make it back, but the defense will be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata. Guards Laken Tomlinson (neck) and Larry Warford (hip) are also harboring injury issues as they prepare to go up against the league’s top interior lineman, Rams DT Aaron Donald. He was missing a few friends against Buffalo since starters Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn and William Hayes were all too injured to play, and it remains to be seen who lines up alongside him in Detroit. L.A. will certainly be missing top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle).

Cleveland at Tennessee: The Titans can reach .500 this late in a season for the first time in ’13. In fact, they can match last year’s win total if they can keep the Browns winless. Last week’s victory in South Florida saw Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray control the game from the backfield, putting the Dolphins in a hole that allowed the Tennessee pass rush to flex its muscle. The Browns will have Cody Kessler back under center after a chest injury knocked him out against New England, but if Josh McCown (clavicle) is still a week away, fellow rookie Kevin Hogan would be the backup. Despite forearm and hip injuries, tight end Gary Barnidge should be available for the Browns, who are already an afterthought in their own city with the Cavs starting back up and the Tribe reaching the ALCS.

Philadelphia at Washington: Rookie Carson Wentz comes off his first loss, but seems to have the right temperament to bounce back quickly. The schedule made it easy to turn the page, since this will be his first divisional game, on the road no less, against a rival. The ‘Skins have won three straight, stealing a game from the Giants to avoid an 0-3 start before handling the Browns and Ravens. There’s concern they may not have TE Jordan Reed (concussion), a key red zone target, cleared in time to participate. Washington’s secondary should be intact with Josh Norman (wrist) good to go and Bashaud Breeland (knee) returning, so Wentz has his work cut out for him as he looks to snap Philly’s three-game losing streak in this series. Lane Johnson begins serving his 10-game suspension, so the offensive line isn’t likely to be as effective as it has been.

Kansas City at Oakland: This rivalry used to be among the best in football until the Raiders hit the skids again, but it could be coming back in style. The Raiders enter this game in possession of first place in the AFC West following Denver’s Thursday night loss, so this home game provides a great opportunity to create separation within the division. Derek Carr has excelled in utilizing his many weapons, displaying tremendous improvement, and he’ll look to avoid turnovers against Marcus Peters and an aggressive Chiefs defense. Running backs are in the spotlight injury-wise, as Latavius Murray (turf toe) is still ailing and may miss a second straight. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles is itching to play and eager to get the “training wheels” off – his words – so with Charcandrick West hurt, he may get his chance to carry the load. The Chiefs have won five of the last six over the Raiders.

Atlanta at Seattle: For my money, this is Week 6’s top matchup. The Seahawks are much healthier than they were in the season’s early stages, so this would be a perfect opportunity to prove to themselves that they’ve still got it. Conditions certainly favor Seattle given its coming off a bye while the Falcons were in Denver last Sunday and stayed out west for an extended road trip. Russell Wilson reportedly had a great week of practice and has his offensive weapons healthier than they’ve been all season as guys like Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have looked tuned up. The Falcons will try and continue their eye-opening start by riding Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who combined for 286 yards in the upset of the Broncos and create huge mismatches against defense. Matt Ryan has taken advantage and proved last week that he doesn’t necessarily need Julio Jones to have a big day in order to points on the board. There are some great individual matchups here, and although they haven’t faced off since 2013, they played a memorable NFC Divisional playoff in January of ’13 that was won on a last-second Atlanta field goal at the Georgia Dome. Wilson threw for 385 yards and ran for another 60 in the loss that ended his rookie season. Atlanta has won four of five in the series, but lost 33-10 at home in the last meeting.

Dallas at Green Bay: Despite their nasty habit of squandering covers, the Packers have had a strong season. Their lone loss came in Minnesota and both sides of the ball appear to be improved, even with Aaron Rodgers not razor sharp yet. This will be a great test for their defensive line. Dallas has been able to impose its will up front and move people, doing a number on Cincinnati at home last Sunday. LT Tyron Smith is expected to make a more complete return from a back injury that limited him last week, so the Cowboys will be deeper up front. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has won two straight without Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss a third consecutive game, relying on the horses up front and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL’s rushing leader. The Packers saw Eddie Lacy and James Starks suffer ankle injuries in Sunday night’s win over New York, but are hoping to have both play despite not practicing. Randall Cobb (head) should also play after sustaining a nasty helmet-to-helmet blow, suffering only a stiff neck. Green Bay has won the last five in this series.

Indianapolis at Houston: The AFC South came down to these two last season and could again, so this should be a salty, physical Sunday night game. Although they’ve lost J.J. Watt for the season, the Texans lead the division as the only team entering the week over .500. They’ve won all three of their home games, so the fact they’ve been no-shows on the road in embarrassing losses matters little here. What is of consequence is that the NFL’s leader in pass defense will have to deal with Houston native Andrew Luck, who wasn’t available either time these teams got together last season but has a five-game winning streak in the series, losing only the first time he played in his hometown. Texans corners Johnathan Joseph (concussion) and Kareem Jackson (hamstring) joined safety Quintin Demps (calf) in getting hurt at Minnesota. He’s walked out of NRG Stadium a winner in two straight and comes into this one completing 64 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and three picks. Counterpart Brock Osweiler has thrown more picks (7) than touchdowns (6) and comes off his worst start of the season against a Vikings defense that brings out the worst in quarterbacks. The Colts often bring out the best in them, surrendering 301 yards per game thus far. Their secondary isn’t as banged-up as it has been in recent weeks, but remains a problem area. The same can be said for Indy’s offensive line, which could have issues on the road protecting Luck.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3, 53)

Panthers’ putrid secondary vs. Saints’ home cooking

This isn't the 2015 edition of the Carolina Panthers - not by a long shot. Just one season after reaching the Super Bowl, the Panthers are in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason altogether after opening the season with losses in four of their first five games. Inconsistency on offense certainly hasn't helped, but the major difference between this season and last is a pass defense that has looked largely overmatched in the absence of backfield anchor Josh Norman.

Several metrics work against the Panthers' defense, but the one that generates the greatest concern heading into this week's tilt in New Orleans is how often Carolina is getting beaten for significant gains. The Panthers rank 30th in average opponent yards per completion (12.4); only the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been worse. But changes are in the offing, with the Panthers cutting loose Bene Benwikere, who was expected to take over as the team's top corner.

Yet, while Benwikere had a dismal start the season, his absence this week only thins out the Carolina secondary heading into an encounter with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is particularly ruthless at home, averaging 12.2 yards per completion - sixth in the league - while posting a 112.3 passer rating at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (T-5). It's probably going to be a long day for the Panthers in the Big Easy.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 47)

Steelers’ third-down excellence vs. Dolphins’ 3D struggles

Ben Roethlisberger and Heinz Field go together like a juicy hamburger and a nice dollop of ketchup (I'm sure you get the reference.) But when Big Ben hits the road, things can get downright ugly. Yet, while Roethlisberger boasts one of the largest home/road chasms among NFL quarterbacks, his proficiency at converting third downs and extending drives - no matter where he plays - will serve him well Sunday against a Dolphins team that hasn't been able to do the same.

The Steelers come into Week 6 with a sensational 49.21 percent conversion rate on third downs - rate surpassed only by the Dallas Cowboys, who have extended drives on half their third-down situations. And the Steelers have been even better on the road so far this season, connecting on 52 percent of their third downs. That means a whole lot of extended drives for a team that ranked a dismal 24th in third-down conversion rate a season ago.

Contrast that to the pitiful Dolphins offense, which enters Sunday's encounter ranked second-last in third-down conversion rate at 29.09 percent. That's even worse than in 2015, when Miami ranked 30th in third-down success (30.73 percent). An inability to extend drives has been the Dolphins' most significant undoing over the first five games; they're the worst team in the league by a wide margin in average time of possession (24:04), nearly 6 1/2 minutes lower than the Steelers' rate.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Le'Veon Bell

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK, 47)

Chiefs’ sluggish starts vs. Raiders’ stingy 1Q defense

The focus in this one will be how the Chiefs, fresh off a bye, will be able to manufacture points against a pass offense that has hemorrhaged points like few other teams in the league. Observers will also be keeping an eye on the Kansas City backfield, with Jamaal Charles having had two more weeks to recover from knee surgery. But this one could come down to whether the Chiefs can overcome a disturbing trend of dreadful first-quarter performances.

Kansas City enters its second divisional game of the season having scored just 10 points in the opening quarter of its first four games; only the Arizona Cardinals, who are still looking for their first 1Q points of the season, have been more inept. The Chiefs have struggled mightily despite having a first-quarter time of possession north of 50 percent; they ranked fifth in first-quarter last season en route to an impressive 11-5 record.

The Raiders won't make things easy Sunday afternoon. Oakland has limited opponents to a pair of field goals over the first five opening quarters it has played last season, making it the stingiest first-quarter team in the NFL. And continuing that trend Sunday will be of utmost importance to the Raiders, who are allowing the second-most points in the second half (17.6). With the Chiefs surrendering just 6.5 second-half points per game, grabbing an early lead is critical for Oakland.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Spencer Ware

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Julio Jones' diminished role vs. Seahawks' shutdown pass defense

Anyone who said prior to the season that the Falcons would be the runaway leader in points through Week 5 was either a major Atlanta apologist, or saw something the rest of us didn't. Led by a rejuvenated Matt Ryan and the most potent two-headed rushing attack in the majors, the Falcons have racked up 175 points through five games. And they've done so without much of a contribution from receiving star Julio Jones, who is in for a brutal day against a relentless Seattle pass defense.

Jones sits third in the NFL in receiving yards with 517, but 300 of those came in one magical performance against the Panthers in Week 4. He has had more than five catches just once, and has seen fewer than nine targets four times. The Falcons have managed to succeed despite an under-reliance on their top offensive weapon, but in order to keep the good times rolling, Ryan will need to lean on Jones as teams key in on the running game.

That might not happen in Seattle, where a well-rested Seahawks team awaits. Quarterbacks to face Seattle have a collective passer rating of 65.6 - the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The Seahawks have permitted just one passing touchdown on the season, while recording a sack on 8.76 percent of their defensive snaps, the fifth-best rate in the league. Jones might break out again one of these weeks, but it probably won't happen in the Pacific Northwest.

Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Now that most teams are going to be over one-third of the way through their schedules, it’s acceptable to write a few off if they lose this week. San Diego was headed for obscurity, but salvaged its wasteful season with an upset of Denver thanks to its best defensive performance yet. It’s been a fairly strange season thus far, the quality of play has often been grisly and early injuries have definitely played a factor. Don’t expect much to change this weekend. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 6:

Sunday, Oct. 16

Cincinnati at New England: Tom Brady returned and struck up an instant chemistry with Martellus Bennett, finding him for three touchdowns while playing with other new toys like Chris Hogan in a comfortable win over the Browns. Covering a double-digit spread, it felt like Brady got the benefit of an exhibition game in Cleveland, but there’s no question the level of competition increases as he makes his first home start against the Bengals. Despite a 2-3 record, Cincinnati’s defense is capable of getting after Brady and features hard-hitting LB Vontaze Burfict to clash with the Patriots tight ends. Even though TE Tyler Eifert remains out, the Bengals should have Jeremy Hill (shoulder) back in there in an enhanced role after he carried just four times in last week’s loss at Dallas. Cincinnati was uncharacteristically pushed around by the Cowboys, so expecting it to physically answer the bell here is a given. Bill Belichick has owned Marvin Lewis in head-to-head meetings in this series, winning five of six, which includes a 3-0 mark at Foxboro. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: This is one of those games that could swing a season. After opening with three straight victories, the Ravens have dropped two in a row and come into this one frustrated. Already having fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, Baltimore clearly doesn’t want the losing to linger. New York is bringing up the rear in the NFC East, sputtering offensively despite an arsenal of weapons. Eli Manning has replaced Odell Beckham Jr. in taking the majority of the blame for the Giants struggles, but getting into the head of ODB remains a focal point for opponents and has already been accomplished this week with Ravens veteran corner promising to fight if he’s hit after the whistle. Consider that an open invitation for Beckham to become bigger than the game, which Baltimore badly wants to bait him into. Mind games may be its best bet considering its health issues, since LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), LB CJ Mosley (thigh), S Kendrick Lewis (thigh), WRs Steve Smith Jr. (ankle) and Mike Wallace (ribs), G Marshal Yanda and T Rick Wagner are all facing injury concerns and may not be available. The Giants have issues in their secondary since Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both left the Packers loss with groin injuries. Jason Pierre-Paul is suffering through the same ailment but is expected to play, while tight end Larry Donnell still has to get through concussion protocol. The Ravens are 4-1 all-time against the Giants.

Carolina at New Orleans: Consider this an NFC South elimination game. The Saints come off a bye and are at home, but beating the defending conference champs still feels like it would be an upset. Oddsmakers think so too, installing the Panthers as a road favorite despite their struggles. Cam Newton will return from a concussion suffered against Atlanta to help his team avoid what would be a disastrous 1-5 start, but a defense that was once considered one of the NFL’s best has looked ordinary at best. Drew Brees hasn’t had a problem moving a Saints offense that averages 28.5 points, the third-largest output in the league. Carolina has won the last three contests to improve to 6-4 since Newton came on board. In those last 10 meetings, these teams have scored 27 or more points on 13 occasions. The Panthers will have RB Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back in the mix too, while New Orleans is hoping to have LBs Dannell Ellerbe and James Laurinaitis back from quad injuries that have impacted their mobility.

Pittsburgh at Miami: They’re ready to quit on Ryan Tannehill in South Florida. The fan base, that is. The team itself is a different story, since first-year Dolphins head coach Adam Gase has provided assurances that Tannehill is his guy the rest of the season as the organization is best-served giving him a full season to put his ups and downs on display. So far, Tannehill’s body of work has been mostly terrible, but his protection has often fallen apart and a lack of a running game hasn’t helped matters. Arian Foster (hamstring) should play for the first time since going out in Week 2, so Miami figure to get a boost on the ground. Tackle Branden Albert and rookie guard Laremy Tunsil also expect to return from ankle injuries, so we’ll see if the Dolphins can avoid hearing boos at home this time around. The Steelers are definitely going to be without DE Cameron Hayward (hamstring) and are likely to again be missing top LB Ryan Shazier (knee), so the defense could be vulnerable. Miami won the last meeting between these two in 2013, but hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh at home since 1998. Amusingly, the Steelers are hoping to add Hard Rock Stadium to the list since they’ve beaten the Dolphins in the same building this century no matter who held the naming rights (Sun Life, Land Shark, Pro Player).

Jacksonville at Chicago: The loser here gets stuck holding a single win, which means there’s some desperation in play. Brian Hoyer has three 300-yard passing games with multiple touchdowns each time out, so missing Jay Cutler (thumb) for another Sunday really isn’t a big deal. He led the Bears to a win over Detroit in his last home start and has benefited from a strong connection with TE Zach Miller and top wideout Alshon Jeffrey getting healthier. Rookie Jordan Howard has done a nice job replacing the injured Jeremy Langford (ankle), who also may be absent again. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week after beating Indianapolis in London and are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Rest has allowed TEs Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis time to heal up, so the offense will be at full strength as QB Blake Bortles looks to avoid another slow start to try and help his team escape the AFC South basement. Chicago won the last game between these teams 41-3 in Jacksonville back in 2012. The Jags are 1-2 lifetime at Soldier Field.

San Francisco at Buffalo: Colin Kaepernick will make his first start for the 49ers, adding to the drama in upstate New York. Don’t expect a friendly welcome for anyone but the Bills, who are back in town after playing conquering heroes in New England and Los Angeles to climb above .500 after an 0-2 start. Rex Ryan has gotten great play from Tyrod Taylor of late and has seen his defense overcome the extended absence of Marcell Dareus to get their act together. San Francisco’s offense has run a lot of plays under Chip Kelly, but limited success with the downfield passing game has made them predictable. The hope is that Kaepernick’s speed and ability to throw the deep ball will open things up, but he hasn’t played since the preseason finale and hasn’t appeared in a regular-season game since last November, wrapping up a truly awful run before being benched and ultimately undergoing shoulder surgery.

Los Angeles at Detroit: After pulling off consecutive upsets of the Seahawks, Bucs and Cardinals, the Rams were tamed at home by Buffalo to fall out of first in the NFC West. With Case Keenum under center, the defense is going to have to be the driving force for L.A. week in and week out and couldn’t get stops against a Bills offense thrived running the ball. After losing Ameer Abdullah, the Lions aren’t equipped to thrive similarly, although they have creatively gotten Theo Riddick the ball out of the backfield. He’s been out of practice all week with an ankle injury and could be a game-time call, so Detroit signed Justin Forsett in an effort to get someone who can run between the tackles. TE Eric Ebron (knee, ankle) has been out as well, which made the Lions’ upset of Philadelphia even more surprising. Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) could finally make it back, but the defense will be missing top LB Deandre Levy (quad) and DT Haloti Ngata. Guards Laken Tomlinson (neck) and Larry Warford (hip) are also harboring injury issues as they prepare to go up against the league’s top interior lineman, Rams DT Aaron Donald. He was missing a few friends against Buffalo since starters Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn and William Hayes were all too injured to play, and it remains to be seen who lines up alongside him in Detroit. L.A. will certainly be missing top corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle).

Cleveland at Tennessee: The Titans can reach .500 this late in a season for the first time in ’13. In fact, they can match last year’s win total if they can keep the Browns winless. Last week’s victory in South Florida saw Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray control the game from the backfield, putting the Dolphins in a hole that allowed the Tennessee pass rush to flex its muscle. The Browns will have Cody Kessler back under center after a chest injury knocked him out against New England, but if Josh McCown (clavicle) is still a week away, fellow rookie Kevin Hogan would be the backup. Despite forearm and hip injuries, tight end Gary Barnidge should be available for the Browns, who are already an afterthought in their own city with the Cavs starting back up and the Tribe reaching the ALCS.

Philadelphia at Washington: Rookie Carson Wentz comes off his first loss, but seems to have the right temperament to bounce back quickly. The schedule made it easy to turn the page, since this will be his first divisional game, on the road no less, against a rival. The ‘Skins have won three straight, stealing a game from the Giants to avoid an 0-3 start before handling the Browns and Ravens. There’s concern they may not have TE Jordan Reed (concussion), a key red zone target, cleared in time to participate. Washington’s secondary should be intact with Josh Norman (wrist) good to go and Bashaud Breeland (knee) returning, so Wentz has his work cut out for him as he looks to snap Philly’s three-game losing streak in this series. Lane Johnson begins serving his 10-game suspension, so the offensive line isn’t likely to be as effective as it has been.

Kansas City at Oakland: This rivalry used to be among the best in football until the Raiders hit the skids again, but it could be coming back in style. The Raiders enter this game in possession of first place in the AFC West following Denver’s Thursday night loss, so this home game provides a great opportunity to create separation within the division. Derek Carr has excelled in utilizing his many weapons, displaying tremendous improvement, and he’ll look to avoid turnovers against Marcus Peters and an aggressive Chiefs defense. Running backs are in the spotlight injury-wise, as Latavius Murray (turf toe) is still ailing and may miss a second straight. Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles is itching to play and eager to get the “training wheels” off – his words – so with Charcandrick West hurt, he may get his chance to carry the load. The Chiefs have won five of the last six over the Raiders.

Atlanta at Seattle: For my money, this is Week 6’s top matchup. The Seahawks are much healthier than they were in the season’s early stages, so this would be a perfect opportunity to prove to themselves that they’ve still got it. Conditions certainly favor Seattle given its coming off a bye while the Falcons were in Denver last Sunday and stayed out west for an extended road trip. Russell Wilson reportedly had a great week of practice and has his offensive weapons healthier than they’ve been all season as guys like Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have looked tuned up. The Falcons will try and continue their eye-opening start by riding Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who combined for 286 yards in the upset of the Broncos and create huge mismatches against defense. Matt Ryan has taken advantage and proved last week that he doesn’t necessarily need Julio Jones to have a big day in order to points on the board. There are some great individual matchups here, and although they haven’t faced off since 2013, they played a memorable NFC Divisional playoff in January of ’13 that was won on a last-second Atlanta field goal at the Georgia Dome. Wilson threw for 385 yards and ran for another 60 in the loss that ended his rookie season. Atlanta has won four of five in the series, but lost 33-10 at home in the last meeting.

Dallas at Green Bay: Despite their nasty habit of squandering covers, the Packers have had a strong season. Their lone loss came in Minnesota and both sides of the ball appear to be improved, even with Aaron Rodgers not razor sharp yet. This will be a great test for their defensive line. Dallas has been able to impose its will up front and move people, doing a number on Cincinnati at home last Sunday. LT Tyron Smith is expected to make a more complete return from a back injury that limited him last week, so the Cowboys will be deeper up front. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has won two straight without Dez Bryant (knee), who looks like he may miss a third consecutive game, relying on the horses up front and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL’s rushing leader. The Packers saw Eddie Lacy and James Starks suffer ankle injuries in Sunday night’s win over New York, but are hoping to have both play despite not practicing. Randall Cobb (head) should also play after sustaining a nasty helmet-to-helmet blow, suffering only a stiff neck. Green Bay has won the last five in this series.

Indianapolis at Houston: The AFC South came down to these two last season and could again, so this should be a salty, physical Sunday night game. Although they’ve lost J.J. Watt for the season, the Texans lead the division as the only team entering the week over .500. They’ve won all three of their home games, so the fact they’ve been no-shows on the road in embarrassing losses matters little here. What is of consequence is that the NFL’s leader in pass defense will have to deal with Houston native Andrew Luck, who wasn’t available either time these teams got together last season but has a five-game winning streak in the series, losing only the first time he played in his hometown. Texans corners Johnathan Joseph (concussion) and Kareem Jackson (hamstring) joined safety Quintin Demps (calf) in getting hurt at Minnesota. He’s walked out of NRG Stadium a winner in two straight and comes into this one completing 64 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and three picks. Counterpart Brock Osweiler has thrown more picks (7) than touchdowns (6) and comes off his worst start of the season against a Vikings defense that brings out the worst in quarterbacks. The Colts often bring out the best in them, surrendering 301 yards per game thus far. Their secondary isn’t as banged-up as it has been in recent weeks, but remains a problem area. The same can be said for Indy’s offensive line, which could have issues on the road protecting Luck.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Picking NFL winners has never been so simple - just bet great teams
By JASON LOGAN

“Good teams win. Great teams cover.”

It’s an age-old adage shared among sports bettors – our version of “Where’s the beef?” or “Don’t eat yellow snow”.

Sometimes it’s on the back of a t-shirt while you’re standing in line at the book and sometimes it’s overheard at the end of the bar following a late field goal to push the favorite past the number.

And, when it comes to the NFL the past two seasons, great teams not only cover but also win outright. It seems the cream of the crop has risen to the top, with the NFL’s elite living up to its billing. This season, teams with four or more wins heading into Sunday’s action are a collective 29-7 SU and a nearly equal 28-8 ATS – covering at a jeans-moistening 78 percent. Pointspreads be damned.

This trend is nothing new. At this time last season, teams with four or more wins in the standings were a collective 38-11-2 ATS, covering the spread 77.5 percent of the time. And that success (while tempered by the gambling gods) continued for the most part, with teams finishing with double-digit wins boasting a record of 102-67-7 ATS (61 percent winners on the season) despite pointspreads puffing up with every victory.

None of those 10-plus win teams finished below .500 against the spread in 2015, with a couple going 8-8 ATS. This season, it’s more of the same. Heading into Sunday, there are seven teams with four or more wins and Oakland at 3-2 ATS is the only member of that group not to produce four paydays in the first five weeks.

It’s not great for sportsbooks (boo hoo), who consistently see public money on these teams every weekend. But, thanks to the rest of the league, bookies are making their millions on the proverbial catastro-f#ck that is the NFL’s middle class.

In fact, through five weeks and a Week 6 Thursday nighter, all but one team with a winning record has a sub .500 ATS mark and all but one team with a losing record is making money for football bettors. Those two mutants are the Baltimore Ravens (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) and the enigmatic San Diego Chargers (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS), who just scored a win over the defending Super Bowl champs.

Now, those elite NFL teams mentioned before don’t come cheap. You’ve got to be prepared to eat about as much chalk as a school teacher with pica. Just look at Week 6 lines like Pittsburgh -7.5 at Miami or New England -8 versus Cincinnati. Those lofty spreads are designed to weather the public storm and attract money on the other side.

Sports betting is never just as simple as betting on the team with the better win/loss record – that’s why the pointspread was invented and why Las Vegas has roads as smooth as Tom Brady’s bottom. But, as it’s shown so far this NFL season and going back to 2015, “great teams cover” and then some.

Dog catchers

Tying into the above statement, as it pertains to large pointspreads, it’s been better to give than to receive when wagering fat favorites. Heading into Sunday, underdogs of +4 or higher are just 12-17-1 ATS (10-20 SU) – covering at just a 41 percent clip.

But not all dogs are bad. Teams getting between +1 and +3.5 points from the oddsmakers are a very lucrative 31-16 ATS (28-19 SU), cashing in at a 66 percent rate. San Diego did so as +3 home dogs to Denver Thursday.

For those of your with keen betting instincts, I couldn't help but see your eyes light up like god damn Fremont Street when you saw that those short dogs had gone 28-19 SU. That means that if you passed on the points and went straight for the sportsbooks' jugular, betting $100 on each of those underdog moneylines, you would be up $1,949 heading into this Sunday's action.

There are plenty of little pups on the board, with seven Week 6 games currently floating spreads between one and 3.5.

The devil you know

Divisional foes get to know each other really, really well. Kind of like your college roommate: you didn’t really like the guy but you knew everything about him – like that time he pissed his pants in the canoe at camp because he was afraid to stand up and pee in the middle of the lake.

With that in mind, (familiarity, not pissing your pants) you would think division matchups would be tight defensive battles with the teams knowing each and every move the other was about to make. But no. That’s not the case. At least not in the AFC.

Divisional games in the AFC have gone 7-3 Over/Under this season while NFC divisional contests are a ho-hum 8-7 O/U. Given the difference in results between the two conferences, don’t be surprised if a few more Unders start rolling in when AFC divisions duke it out – like Thursday’s 21-13 final score between the Broncos and Bolts.

There are currently two AFC divisional games on the board: Kansas City at Oakland (47) and Indianapolis at Houston (48.5).

Monday money

We’ve been tracking Monday Night Football underdogs and their sports betting success since last season, and guess what happened last week when the Buccaneers took on the Cam-less Panthers as 6-point road pups?

I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “schmovered”.

With that “schmover”, MNF dogs are a profitable 17-5-1 ATS going back to last season, including a 4-2 ATS record heading into Week 6. This Monday, the New York Jets cross the country to play the Arizona Cardinals as 7.5-point puppies.

Sharps like…

The Chiefs. Kansas City opened as high as a 2-point underdog in Oakland and, according to CG Technology in Las Vegas, wiseguys have pounded this line all the way to Oakland +1, with a couple shops dealing Raiders +1.5.

Biggest line move…

The Patriots moved from -7 to -9 hosting the Bengals Sunday. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology says the two-point move was made to protect from teasers taking this game as a pick, but doesn’t see it going to New England -10.

“We’re getting good two-way action at -9,” he says.

Biggest sweat…

The Steelers. Pittsburgh opened -7 and is now -7.5 at Miami with one-sided action from Joe public.

“It’s just been an avalanche of money on the Steelers,” says Simbal. “No real huge bets but just a lot of public bets and every parlay going has that game on it.”

Banker game…

Late afternoon underdogs. Simbal says a lot depends on how the Patriots and Steelers do in the early games. If those two favorites cover, they’ll be counting on the underdogs to spoil the party in the later games.

“If they both cover, we’re sitting in a spot with a ton of parlay liability,” he says. “We’ll need a dog to come through and break those up, like the Redskins or the Cowboys. We were in a similar spot last week, with the Patriots and Steelers covering early. And only one dog covered in the late games, so that wasn’t a great result for the book.”

Injury to watch

Rams defensive line

Los Angeles – formerly St. Louis – has lived and died by its defensive line the past three seasons. That talented group has single-handedly won football games the Rams had no business winning, picking up the slack for a pop-gun offense.

Los Angeles was without linemen Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, and William Hayes last week and got rolled by the Bills 30-19 in front of the Coliseum faithful. All three of those men are big question marks for Week 6’s road game in Detroit, where oddsmakers have the Rams set as field goal pups.

Keep a close eye on the status of Quinn, Brockers and Hayes before putting money down on L.A. this weekend.

We know how to pick’em

As mentioned above, sharp money on the Chiefs has moved them from 2-point road dogs to -1.5 road favorites, visiting the Raiders Sunday. I have a feeling this game is going to settle around a pick'em once the Silver-and-Black money gets involved.

And with that, we turn the handicapping over to each sides’ cheerleaders. Because, when the spread’s this close, sometimes asking “Who will cover?” is about as insightful as asking, “Which team has the hottest cheerleaders?”

Sunday menu

My wife is a very picky eater. If chicken fingers or some kind of variation of chicken fingers aren’t on the menu, we aren’t going to that restaurant. So it caught me off guard when she suggested that I make chili this weekend.

Sure babe, I’ll make my famous “Rose Bowl Chili” – named for the infamous 2006 Rose Bowl between USC and Texas (if you haven’t watched the Football Life episode on the game, stop reading this and go do it. NOW!). Happy wife. Happy life.


Easy (money) like Sunday morning

The Broncos busted me last week, losing outright to Atlanta at -3.5. That dropped me to an embarrassing 1-4 ATS on the season for my weekly picks. You would think having a wealth of information and insight into the weekly NFL betting action would at least have me breaking even, but here we are…

I’m going with Carolina as the short favorite at New Orleans this week. Cam Newton is back under center and I find it hard to believe that the Panthers are actually this bad. Take away the loss to Tampa Bay, in which Cam was out with a concussion, and Carolina’s other three losses have come to quality opponents: Denver, Minnesota and Atlanta.

The Saints are coming off a bye week but have been downright terrible versus NFC South foes at home in recent years, going 1-5 SU when hosting divisional opponents since 2014. Carolina loves the Big Easy, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 trips to the Superdome.

Pick: Carolina -2.5