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Best Bets - Week 6

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Sill haven't been able to find that perfect 2-0 sweep in the NFL as Week 5's best bets split the board once again. It was nice to hit on the outright winner in Detroit, but the Browns felt more of Tom Brady's wrath then I expected in his return.

Brady makes his home debut against the Bengals this week, and while that game doesn't make it to this article, be cautious with a potentially overinflated line on Brady and the Pats there.

Best Bet #1: Miami Dolphins +8

Speaking of Tom Brady and the Pats, the Pittsburgh Steelers have New England on deck in Week 7 and have to believe that's a huge game for potential playoff home field tie-breaking scenarios should that come up.

Many believed coming into the year that Pittsburgh and New England would be two of the best teams in the AFC and through five weeks it's definitely looking that way.

But this week the Steelers are in Miami, fresh off two straight blowout victories and deal with a Dolphins squad that's trying to save their season. At 1-4 SU, Miami knows they've got to start reeling off wins in a hurry and with this being their second of four straight home games, there is no better time than the present to get on a roll and back into things.

I'm not fully believing that Miami will pull off the upset here, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Simply put, getting more than a touchdown in this spot is too many points to pass up on the Dolphins.

Miami is a team nobody wants a part of in this matchup as the perception of both sides couldn't be more different right now. Miami gave up a season high 398 yards to Tennessee last week and judging by the early betting percentages on Vegas Insider, the majority of early bettors believe the Steelers offense – which is much better than Tennessee's – will rip through them rather easily.

But Miami is 9-0 ATS as sizeable underdogs (+2 or more) the last nine times they've played a foe that's won and covered in each of their past two games like Pittsburgh has. The Dolphins also catch the Steelers in a negative 6-22-1 ATS spot when on the road and playing a team with a losing record at home.

Clearly that latter number as something to do with Pittsburgh either looking ahead to a big game elsewhere, or simply just figuring they can just show up to get the W, but either way, expect Miami to keep this one close.


Best Bet #2: New York Giants -3

The Giants need to lick their wounds from consecutive losses in primetime games to NFC North foes. If you had jumped on New York early last week you managed to get an ATS win by the hook at +7.5, but this will be the week they snap that losing streak and dispatch the Ravens.

While some may argue that the Giants still didn't look great vs. Green Bay a week ago, they did do some good things that showed improvement. Eli Manning didn't visibly wear his frustration all over his face for the bulk of the game and Odell Beckham got involved again in the attack with a TD. Furthermore,

New York finally got their first interception of the season (two in total) and the defense gave them plenty of chances to get back into the contest by holding the fort and forcing Green Bay into multiple FG tries. New York can ill-afford to fall to 2-4 SU with a loss this week and I don't believe that will be the case.

Baltimore is a reeling team as well having lost two straight, and while many will point to their 2-0 SU record on the road this year as a reason to grab the points, those wins came against Cleveland and Jacksonville.

The Giants are clearly a better opponent than both of those franchises and that presents problems for a Ravens team that has failed to score more than 19 points against anyone not named Cleveland or Oakland (two of the worst defenses in the league).

Eli and company will continue to move forward in the right direction this week and capitalize on their opportunities back at home. We could end up seeing a few points in this game as well as both QB's are known to take deep shots, but in the end it will be the Giants that get the job done, winning this game by 4+.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Picking NFL winners has never been so simple - just bet great teams
By JASON LOGAN

“Good teams win. Great teams cover.”

It’s an age-old adage shared among sports bettors – our version of “Where’s the beef?” or “Don’t eat yellow snow”.

Sometimes it’s on the back of a t-shirt while you’re standing in line at the book and sometimes it’s overheard at the end of the bar following a late field goal to push the favorite past the number.

And, when it comes to the NFL the past two seasons, great teams not only cover but also win outright. It seems the cream of the crop has risen to the top, with the NFL’s elite living up to its billing. This season, teams with four or more wins heading into Sunday’s action are a collective 29-7 SU and a nearly equal 28-8 ATS – covering at a jeans-moistening 78 percent. Pointspreads be damned.

This trend is nothing new. At this time last season, teams with four or more wins in the standings were a collective 38-11-2 ATS, covering the spread 77.5 percent of the time. And that success (while tempered by the gambling gods) continued for the most part, with teams finishing with double-digit wins boasting a record of 102-67-7 ATS (61 percent winners on the season) despite pointspreads puffing up with every victory.

None of those 10-plus win teams finished below .500 against the spread in 2015, with a couple going 8-8 ATS. This season, it’s more of the same. Heading into Sunday, there are seven teams with four or more wins and Oakland at 3-2 ATS is the only member of that group not to produce four paydays in the first five weeks.

It’s not great for sportsbooks (boo hoo), who consistently see public money on these teams every weekend. But, thanks to the rest of the league, bookies are making their millions on the proverbial catastro-f#ck that is the NFL’s middle class.

In fact, through five weeks and a Week 6 Thursday nighter, all but one team with a winning record has a sub .500 ATS mark and all but one team with a losing record is making money for football bettors. Those two mutants are the Baltimore Ravens (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) and the enigmatic San Diego Chargers (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS), who just scored a win over the defending Super Bowl champs.

Now, those elite NFL teams mentioned before don’t come cheap. You’ve got to be prepared to eat about as much chalk as a school teacher with pica. Just look at Week 6 lines like Pittsburgh -7.5 at Miami or New England -8 versus Cincinnati. Those lofty spreads are designed to weather the public storm and attract money on the other side.

Sports betting is never just as simple as betting on the team with the better win/loss record – that’s why the pointspread was invented and why Las Vegas has roads as smooth as Tom Brady’s bottom. But, as it’s shown so far this NFL season and going back to 2015, “great teams cover” and then some.

Dog catchers

Tying into the above statement, as it pertains to large pointspreads, it’s been better to give than to receive when wagering fat favorites. Heading into Sunday, underdogs of +4 or higher are just 12-17-1 ATS (10-20 SU) – covering at just a 41 percent clip.

But not all dogs are bad. Teams getting between +1 and +3.5 points from the oddsmakers are a very lucrative 31-16 ATS (28-19 SU), cashing in at a 66 percent rate. San Diego did so as +3 home dogs to Denver Thursday.

For those of your with keen betting instincts, I couldn't help but see your eyes light up like god damn Fremont Street when you saw that those short dogs had gone 28-19 SU. That means that if you passed on the points and went straight for the sportsbooks' jugular, betting $100 on each of those underdog moneylines, you would be up $1,949 heading into this Sunday's action.

There are plenty of little pups on the board, with seven Week 6 games currently floating spreads between one and 3.5.

The devil you know

Divisional foes get to know each other really, really well. Kind of like your college roommate: you didn’t really like the guy but you knew everything about him – like that time he pissed his pants in the canoe at camp because he was afraid to stand up and pee in the middle of the lake.

With that in mind, (familiarity, not pissing your pants) you would think division matchups would be tight defensive battles with the teams knowing each and every move the other was about to make. But no. That’s not the case. At least not in the AFC.

Divisional games in the AFC have gone 7-3 Over/Under this season while NFC divisional contests are a ho-hum 8-7 O/U. Given the difference in results between the two conferences, don’t be surprised if a few more Unders start rolling in when AFC divisions duke it out – like Thursday’s 21-13 final score between the Broncos and Bolts.

There are currently two AFC divisional games on the board: Kansas City at Oakland (47) and Indianapolis at Houston (48.5).

Monday money

We’ve been tracking Monday Night Football underdogs and their sports betting success since last season, and guess what happened last week when the Buccaneers took on the Cam-less Panthers as 6-point road pups?

I’ll give you a hint: it rhymes with “schmovered”.

With that “schmover”, MNF dogs are a profitable 17-5-1 ATS going back to last season, including a 4-2 ATS record heading into Week 6. This Monday, the New York Jets cross the country to play the Arizona Cardinals as 7.5-point puppies.

Sharps like…

The Chiefs. Kansas City opened as high as a 2-point underdog in Oakland and, according to CG Technology in Las Vegas, wiseguys have pounded this line all the way to Oakland +1, with a couple shops dealing Raiders +1.5.

Biggest line move…

The Patriots moved from -7 to -9 hosting the Bengals Sunday. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology says the two-point move was made to protect from teasers taking this game as a pick, but doesn’t see it going to New England -10.

“We’re getting good two-way action at -9,” he says.

Biggest sweat…

The Steelers. Pittsburgh opened -7 and is now -7.5 at Miami with one-sided action from Joe public.

“It’s just been an avalanche of money on the Steelers,” says Simbal. “No real huge bets but just a lot of public bets and every parlay going has that game on it.”

Banker game…

Late afternoon underdogs. Simbal says a lot depends on how the Patriots and Steelers do in the early games. If those two favorites cover, they’ll be counting on the underdogs to spoil the party in the later games.

“If they both cover, we’re sitting in a spot with a ton of parlay liability,” he says. “We’ll need a dog to come through and break those up, like the Redskins or the Cowboys. We were in a similar spot last week, with the Patriots and Steelers covering early. And only one dog covered in the late games, so that wasn’t a great result for the book.”

Injury to watch

Rams defensive line

Los Angeles – formerly St. Louis – has lived and died by its defensive line the past three seasons. That talented group has single-handedly won football games the Rams had no business winning, picking up the slack for a pop-gun offense.

Los Angeles was without linemen Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, and William Hayes last week and got rolled by the Bills 30-19 in front of the Coliseum faithful. All three of those men are big question marks for Week 6’s road game in Detroit, where oddsmakers have the Rams set as field goal pups.

Keep a close eye on the status of Quinn, Brockers and Hayes before putting money down on L.A. this weekend.

We know how to pick’em

As mentioned above, sharp money on the Chiefs has moved them from 2-point road dogs to -1.5 road favorites, visiting the Raiders Sunday. I have a feeling this game is going to settle around a pick'em once the Silver-and-Black money gets involved.

And with that, we turn the handicapping over to each sides’ cheerleaders. Because, when the spread’s this close, sometimes asking “Who will cover?” is about as insightful as asking, “Which team has the hottest cheerleaders?”

Sunday menu

My wife is a very picky eater. If chicken fingers or some kind of variation of chicken fingers aren’t on the menu, we aren’t going to that restaurant. So it caught me off guard when she suggested that I make chili this weekend.

Sure babe, I’ll make my famous “Rose Bowl Chili” – named for the infamous 2006 Rose Bowl between USC and Texas (if you haven’t watched the Football Life episode on the game, stop reading this and go do it. NOW!). Happy wife. Happy life.


Easy (money) like Sunday morning

The Broncos busted me last week, losing outright to Atlanta at -3.5. That dropped me to an embarrassing 1-4 ATS on the season for my weekly picks. You would think having a wealth of information and insight into the weekly NFL betting action would at least have me breaking even, but here we are…

I’m going with Carolina as the short favorite at New Orleans this week. Cam Newton is back under center and I find it hard to believe that the Panthers are actually this bad. Take away the loss to Tampa Bay, in which Cam was out with a concussion, and Carolina’s other three losses have come to quality opponents: Denver, Minnesota and Atlanta.

The Saints are coming off a bye week but have been downright terrible versus NFC South foes at home in recent years, going 1-5 SU when hosting divisional opponents since 2014. Carolina loves the Big Easy, going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 trips to the Superdome.

Pick: Carolina -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC South heats up SNF

NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Indianapolis Colts (2-3 SU; 2-3 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS)
Odds: Houston (-3); Total set at 48.5

This week's SNF game gives us an AFC South showdown between the two teams that were expected to compete for the division crown.

Right now the Houston Texans hold the edge in that regard, but a loss this week would have them even with Indy and down in the head-to-head tiebreaker with a trip to Indianapolis still looming. Can Houston get the job done, or will the Colts rise up and beat the Texans once again.

Since Andrew Luck has entered the NFL, Indy is 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS against the Texans, including three wins in his last three trips to Houston. Luck and the Colts seem to like taking on the Texans in this building and would love to come away with the outright victory once again this week.

However, the Colts haven't played remotely close to their expectations this year as they've got the 3rd worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game (410.6), 2nd worst in points allowed per game (29.6), and a middle of the pack offensive team in numerous categories right now.

They've played from behind so much already this year and while they may have been able to scratch out two victories with that method, NFL teams are playing with fire when they are consistently trying to catch up.

That last fact is why oddsmakers have decided to give Houston the full three-point home field advantage this week and a 3-0 SU and ATS mark at home doesn't exactly hurt the Texans either.

But this Houston team hasn't really played up to expectations either as they've been blown out by the top teams in this league they've faced (Minnesota and New England) and QB Brock Osweiler hasn't yet proved he was worth that big free agent contract in the off-season.

Osweiler has looked rushed in the pocket, has been very inaccurate, and hasn't had the time to let deep routes develop with his speedy receivers outside. This is a team that's still trying to survive with that defense-first identity, but with J J Watt on the sidelines, I don't believe the Texans will have great success living by that mantra.

The good news for Houston is a game against a porous defense like the Colts could help get their offense back on track. Even if the Texans aren't able to come out on top this week, a strong performance by Osweiler and company should bode well for Houston down the road.

However, on the other side of the coin is the idea that if Houston doesn't play well and find success moving the ball against this Colts D, then the rest of the year truly will be a long grind.

While the mainstream media might bill this game as one of those classic “offense vs defense” games they love to tackle, the truth is, Indy's really got nowhere else to go but up on both sides of the ball while the Texans appear to be slipping the wrong way.

The Colts defense won't be as horrific as we've seen already for the rest of the season and them getting a chance to redeem some early season struggles against an inaccurate Brock Osweiler might be exactly what they need to get on a roll.

Offensively the Colts are confident in their ability to put up points on Houston and have scored at least 20 points in all five games this year.

Getting to that number might end up being enough in this one if Osweiler struggles, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Indy put up 27+ on the Texans like the Pats and Vikings were able to do.

If that's the case, there is no way Houston's offense can match that productivity here – even against the Colts D and all their bad numbers.

With the road team being 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two and the Colts sporting a 17-6-1 ATS run in their last 24 division games, I believe the Colts end up getting the outright victory here, but am grabbing the points to be safe.

Best Bet: Take Indianapolis +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
By Micah Roberts

There are several crummy matchups in Week 6 of the NFL, but there are also a couple that have really captured the betting attention of sharp and public action beginning with Kansas City playing at first-place Oakland in a classic meaningful AFC West battle. Football seems better when the Raiders are good, but not many are believing in them this week.

"The bulk of our sharp action play this week has been on the Chiefs," said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal. "It's one of three games we've seen heavy sharp play. We initially opened the Raiders -2, went to Chiefs -1 yesterday (Thursday) and we're -1, -115."

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has received some of that sharp action as well and has the high number in town with Kansas City -2.5. William Hill sports books reported having 62 percent of all their point-spread wagers coming on Kansas City.

This old AFL rivalry has the Chiefs on top all-time at 60-52-2 and they've gone 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 visits to Oakland. The road team has gone 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings and Andy Reid is 15-2 straight-up all-time coming off a bye -- 2-1 with KC. Another gem bettors seem to like is that Oakland's 452 yards allowed per game is the most in the league. The Chiefs come in having won three straight against the Raiders, but before last weeks bye, they looked ragged in a 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh.

"The other two games with large action have been the Jets +8, and they also bet the money-line (+310), and then Dallas," Simbal said Friday from his office at M Resort." We just took a large (Cowboys) wager at +4.5 that pushed us to 4."

The New York Jets come in to the Monday night game at Arizona on a three-game losing streak and are now +7.5 and +290 on the money-line. The Cardinals only two covers since Week 17 last season have been against bad teams like Tampa Bay in Week 2 and last week at San Francisco. Quarterback Carson Palmer (concussion) is expected to start after missing the 49ers game. The Jets last lost to the Cardinals in 1975, when they were the St. Louis Cardinals led by Jim Hart, Terry Metcalf and Mel Gray. Joe Namath had an awful game that day in 37-6 loss.

Bad weather is hitting the pacific northwest, but the number in Seattle's home game against the high-flying Falcons pass attack hasn't been altered much.

"We took some smart action on the Falcons at +6.5 and have other plays with them on the money-line (+240), but we didn't move it just because of some of the weather concerns, and the bettors that took the +6.5 haven't come back to hit it again," said Simbal. "We haven't seen really anything come in on the total (45.5)."

As for the public parlay action this week, there isn't too much of a surprise.

"The top public action for the week has been two obvious choices with the Patriots (-9, -105 vs. Bengals) and Steelers (-7.5, -105 at Miami) and then two that aren't so obvious with the Giants (-3, -120 vs. Ravens) and Bills (-9, -105 vs. 49ers). In the case of the Patriots and Steelers we've accumulated enough small straight bet action cumulatively on them to move the number and went to -9, -105 on each to protect against all the teaser action we expect on those sides."

The top two teams with tickets written at William Hill books are the Patriots (87 percent) and Steelers (88 percent). Both teams opened as 7-point favorites.

Colin Kaepernick makes his 2016 starting debut at QB for the 49ers and despite Blaine Gabbert being awful in the 49ers first five games, the betting public views the move as a slight downgrade with all the reports of Kaepernick being awful in practice, skinnier, inaccurate and less arm strength. The top QB in 49ers practice has actually been third-stringer Christian Ponder. Bettors also like the idea of a bad west coast team making the cross-country trip to play a 10 am PT game. There's a 30 percent chance showers at Buffalo Sunday with winds up to 15 mph.

"Our top two total plays have been the Jaguars/Bears Under 47 and the Colts/Texans Over 46.5; we've at 48 on that game now," Simbal said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ravens (3-2) at Giants (2-3)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

BALTIMORE -- The Baltimore Ravens hope to get their new-look offense on track against the struggling New York Giants, who have lost three straight and are in last place in the NFC East.

Baltimore, which has also lost its past two games, fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman less than 24 hours after falling 16-10 to the Washington Redskins. The Ravens replaced Trestman with quarterbacks coach Marty Mornhinweg and expect to have a more balanced attack against New York.

The game is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV when Baltimore ran away with its first championship, 34-7. This time, both teams are simply trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

"We are itching for a 'W.' When you lose, everything is bad," Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "You can fill in the blanks. The food is bad; everything is bad. We need to get a 'W,' and we need one now. They are coming off two (three) losses, too. There is only going to be one winner come Sunday, and we want it to be us."

Giants quarterback Eli Manning has struggled in three meetings with the Ravens, throwing for 330 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. He will face an aggressive Ravens pass rush that will try to force him out of the pocket.

"They have played great defense all year," Manning said of the Ravens. "Not many teams are scoring a lot of points on them. Every game they have played has been a tight game and a close game. They do a great job on third down getting teams off the field.

"They're talented up front, and they do a good job getting pressure and stopping the run. We have to be balanced and find ways to move the chains, get first downs and stay in good down and distance."

New York has the league's 15th-ranked offense and Manning will look to get wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. involved early in his matchup with Baltimore cornerback Jimmy Smith.

"He's one of the most gifted players in the league," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "We have to know where No. 13 is at all the time."

Meanwhile, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and the rest of the offense are trying to emerge from an early season slump. Baltimore expected to have a quick-strike attack capable of putting points on the board in a variety of ways. So far, Baltimore has managed the league's No. 18 overall offense and is averaging 18.8 points per game.

Flacco has thrown more passes (216) than any other quarterback in the NFL. The Ravens have only run the ball 121 times for 495 yards with three touchdowns, which has put more pressure on Flacco.

This lack of balance was one of main reasons for the change at offensive coordinator.

Mornhinweg is expected to give running backs Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen more carries in this game. The Ravens, however, will also take some shots downfield. New York is ranked last in the NFL with just four sacks, so Flacco should have time to throw.

"We will probably be a little more confident going forward and be shoring things up -- doing what we do best," Flacco said after Wednesday's practice in pads. "(We will) try to stretch the field a little bit more and things like that."

New York coach Ben McAdoo said the pressure is mounting to turn things around, starting this week against Baltimore.

The Giants are also hoping for their offense to make strides this week. Running back Rashad Jennings (thumb) is getting closer to rejoining the lineup.

"We have a sense of urgency," McAdoo said. "I'd like to think we have one each and every week. Coming off of this little down slide we're having ... we're in a valley right now, and we need to climb out. This will be a great test for us."

The Ravens lead the series 3-1. The Giants beat visiting Baltimore 30-10 on Nov. 16, 2008, for their sole victory in the series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bengals (2-3) at Patriots (4-1)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

CINCINNATI - Brandon LaFell won't have much insider intel to give his Cincinnati Bengals coaches and teammates before Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium.

LaFell, a former New England Patriots wideout, played just two seasons with the four-time Super Bowl champions. Besides, he knows head coach Bill Belichick is much too smart for that. He also knows the Patriots will be primed and ready for quarterback Tom Brady's home debut coming off suspension.

"If you think it was tough in Dallas, it's going to be even tougher up (there) in New England," LaFell said.

Yes, things were tough in Dallas, where the Cowboys ran roughshod over Cincinnati on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Two fourth-quarter touchdown catches by LaFell made the 28-14 final score respectable but did little to mask the Cowboys' dominance. The Bengals were dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage as Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 134 yards.

LaFell knows a little something about how to respond to tough defeats. And the Bengals can attest to it. In 2014, New England was coming off bad losses to the Dolphins and Chiefs, sparking a nationwide narrative that the Patriots' dynasty was dead.

Behind a dominant performance by Brady, the Patriots flipped the script by routing the Bengals 43-17 at Gillette, setting the stage for another Super Bowl title.

"He doesn't lose in that stadium hardly ever," LaFell said. "It's going to be hard. But every phase of the game has to play hard. We have to start fast. Everybody has to do their job and hold each other accountable."

LaFell, who missed most of the preseason with a hand injury, appears to be getting comfortable in his new offense.

Through five games, LaFell has 21 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns, which puts him on pace to have the finest season since 2011 by any Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green.

LaFell was signed as a free agent this past offseason to provide veteran cover for Green after the departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, who were also free agents.

The Bengals don't expect LaFell to return to his 2014 form, when he had 74 catches for 953 yards and seven touchdowns for New England. But coming off an injury-riddled 2015 campaign, LaFell is getting more comfortable each week with quarterback Andy Dalton and first-year coordinator Ken Zampese.

"Things have been good with Brandon since he's been here," Dalton said. "Very confident in what he's able to do. He's a guy you can trust to make plays for you."

LaFell will need to make a few plays on Sunday against his former teammates.

Cincinnati (2-3) hasn't won at New England since 1986. The Patriots have won nine of 11 meetings at home.

Winning at Gillette Stadium would be a monumental task. But after the loss at Dallas, the Bengals need to respond. Falling to 2-4 would put Cincinnati in dire straits, especially in terms of contending in the AFC North and reaching the postseason for a sixth consecutive season.

"We've got to find a way to win games," LaFell said. "Even if it's a different way every week."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Panthers (1-4) at Saints (1-3)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- If Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton wants to get healthy, the NFL's reigning offensive MVP could not find a better tonic than the New Orleans Saints' defense.

Newton, who sat out the Panthers' ugly 17-14 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night due to repercussions from the concussion he sustained in a Week 4 loss to Atlanta, returned to practice Wednesday in a limited role ahead of the Sunday road game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome (1 p.m. ET, FOX).

Although Panthers coach Ron Rivera couldn't promise Newton would start Sunday against one of the league's weakest defenses (allowing 422.8 yards and 32.5 points a game), Newton participated in team drills and looked frisky in working through the NFL's protocol for returning from a concussion.

At 1-4 and buried in the NFC South cellar, the Panthers, far removed from the team that sailed through the last regular season at 15-1, sorely need a booster shot of classic Newton against the Saints (1-3). New Orleans is coming off a wild 35-34 victory over the San Diego Chargers two weeks ago and is fully rested after a bye week.

"(Newton) looked good and threw the ball pretty doggone well (in practice Wednesday)," said Rivera, who also gave first-team reps to backup QB Derek Anderson. "He was involved with the plays we had scripted for him. We'll see."

Although Newton has struggled this year in comparisons to his 2015 MVP season -- he has five interceptions to go with six touchdowns -- the Panthers realize they will need him if they are to claw back into the NFC South race against the Falcons (4-1). Last season, Newton threw 35 TD passes against 10 picks.

Carolina's ground game has been so anemic this year that Newton, with 147 yards on 29 carries, is the Panthers' second-leading rusher, accounting for 24 percent of the team's rushing yards. He also has taken plenty of hits -- 13 sacks in four starts.

"(I'm) just really happy that he's better," center Ryan Kalil said. "To have Cam not feeling like he was last week and seeing him more like himself was really good for all of us."

Saints coach Sean Payton is well aware of what Newton can do when healthy. Newton torched the beleaguered Saints' defense in a 41-38 victory in the 2015 regular-season finale, passing for 331 yards and five touchdowns.

"In our case, we're preparing for him," Payton said. "We feel he's going to play. I think that's the only way to approach it, and yet we understand the strengths and weaknesses of Derek."

Payton said he realizes the Panthers are a wounded team but have plenty of pride after reaching the Super Bowl last year.

"I don't think our team's going to take any team lightly," Payton said. "We're sitting here at 1-3. I think it's a silly question. We know the team we're playing is a championship-level team that has lost some tough, close games. We're going to have to be at our best."

Saints quarterback Drew Brees is having a stellar season at age 37, averaging 317.3 yards a game on 65.9 percent completions with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Brees played well in two close losses to Carolina last year, and he will not have to face cornerback Josh Norman, who signed in the offseason with the Washington Redskins.

"As I analyze them and from what I'm looking at from a defensive perspective, I think they're as good now as they've been," Brees said. "I know they've had some tough losses, just like we have. We know exactly what they're capable of, and we know the mindset they have coming in this week, needing a win just like we do."

After Carolina's young corners -- rookies James Bradberry and Daryl Worley -- were embarrassed by allowing Atlanta's Julio Jones 12 catches for 300 yards, Rivera said they bounced back in the close loss to Tampa Bay. But they will be right back in the fire against Brees.

"All you have to do is watch the tape (of Brees), and it's scary," Rivera said. "Drew Brees is a tremendous triggerman. He uses all his targets."

Rivera believes his team will show some fight after the unexpected 1-4 start.

"We're a team that has been in touch situations before," Rivera said. "The biggest thing we have to do is stay focused on what the task at hand is."

Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly added, "You don't expect to start out this way, but it's a situation we are in now, and it's all about how you're going to respond from it."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC South heats up SNF

NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Indianapolis Colts (2-3 SU; 2-3 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS)
Odds: Houston (-3); Total set at 48.5

This week's SNF game gives us an AFC South showdown between the two teams that were expected to compete for the division crown.

Right now the Houston Texans hold the edge in that regard, but a loss this week would have them even with Indy and down in the head-to-head tiebreaker with a trip to Indianapolis still looming. Can Houston get the job done, or will the Colts rise up and beat the Texans once again.

Since Andrew Luck has entered the NFL, Indy is 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS against the Texans, including three wins in his last three trips to Houston. Luck and the Colts seem to like taking on the Texans in this building and would love to come away with the outright victory once again this week.

However, the Colts haven't played remotely close to their expectations this year as they've got the 3rd worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game (410.6), 2nd worst in points allowed per game (29.6), and a middle of the pack offensive team in numerous categories right now.

They've played from behind so much already this year and while they may have been able to scratch out two victories with that method, NFL teams are playing with fire when they are consistently trying to catch up.

That last fact is why oddsmakers have decided to give Houston the full three-point home field advantage this week and a 3-0 SU and ATS mark at home doesn't exactly hurt the Texans either.

But this Houston team hasn't really played up to expectations either as they've been blown out by the top teams in this league they've faced (Minnesota and New England) and QB Brock Osweiler hasn't yet proved he was worth that big free agent contract in the off-season.

Osweiler has looked rushed in the pocket, has been very inaccurate, and hasn't had the time to let deep routes develop with his speedy receivers outside. This is a team that's still trying to survive with that defense-first identity, but with J J Watt on the sidelines, I don't believe the Texans will have great success living by that mantra.

The good news for Houston is a game against a porous defense like the Colts could help get their offense back on track. Even if the Texans aren't able to come out on top this week, a strong performance by Osweiler and company should bode well for Houston down the road.

However, on the other side of the coin is the idea that if Houston doesn't play well and find success moving the ball against this Colts D, then the rest of the year truly will be a long grind.

While the mainstream media might bill this game as one of those classic “offense vs defense” games they love to tackle, the truth is, Indy's really got nowhere else to go but up on both sides of the ball while the Texans appear to be slipping the wrong way.

The Colts defense won't be as horrific as we've seen already for the rest of the season and them getting a chance to redeem some early season struggles against an inaccurate Brock Osweiler might be exactly what they need to get on a roll.

Offensively the Colts are confident in their ability to put up points on Houston and have scored at least 20 points in all five games this year.

Getting to that number might end up being enough in this one if Osweiler struggles, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Indy put up 27+ on the Texans like the Pats and Vikings were able to do.

If that's the case, there is no way Houston's offense can match that productivity here – even against the Colts D and all their bad numbers.

With the road team being 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two and the Colts sporting a 17-6-1 ATS run in their last 24 division games, I believe the Colts end up getting the outright victory here, but am grabbing the points to be safe.

Best Bet: Take Indianapolis +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jaguars (1-3) at Bears (1-4)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

CHICAGO -- For three consecutive games, Chicago Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer has passed for 300-plus yards without throwing an interception.

But Hoyer does not want to hear about his personal streak heading into Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

"It hasn't translated to points or victories," Hoyer told reporters this week at the Bears' practice facility. "I think passing yards is kind of an overrated stat when it comes down to it. We've got to translate that into scores.

"That's just the bottom line. That's part of this business: It's win or loss."

The Bears (1-4) have little to boast about in that category. They will try to reverse a season that quickly is slipping away as they host the Jaguars (1-3) at Soldier Field for the first time since 2008.

Hoyer is expected to make his fourth start in place of Jay Cutler, who remains sidelined because of a thumb injury. Hoyer is 1-2 in his starts but has performed admirably as he has completed 71.1 percent of his passes (91 of 128) for 1,016 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his starts.

Still, as Hoyer said, a strong passing game has not produced enough scoring. Chicago is third-to-last in the league with an average of 17.0 points per game. Injuries to starters such as running back Jeremy Langford (ankle) and wide receiver Kevin White (ankle, shin) have not helped.

Chicago has beaten the Detroit Lions this season while losing to the Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts. The Bears are 1-1 at Soldier Field.

Jacksonville has fared slightly better than the Bears with 21.0 points per game, which is good for No. 19 in the league. Quarterback Blake Bortles has completed 61.3 percent of his passes, the best mark of his career, for 1,050 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions in four games.

The Jaguars are coming off a bye after beating the Colts two weeks ago in London. Two of Jacksonville's losses (against the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens) have been by four points or fewer.

Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley's team will welcome back cornerback Aaron Colvin from a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances. Colvin started 15 games last season and finished with 73 tackles, four sacks, seven pass breakups and a forced fumble.

"I know that I can bring another element to this secondary that's already playing at a high level," Colvin told reporters this week. "I'm just excited to get back with these guys and do anything and everything I can to help them."

Colvin joins a high-caliber defense that has allowed 304.5 yards per game, seventh fewest in the NFL.

"You look at these guys on paper, they've been adding talent year after year," Hoyer said. "Defensively, you've got some beasts up front (and) a lot of high draft picks or big free agents in the back end. (Middle linebacker) Paul Posluszny is like the quarterback back there. He's been in that system for a while. ... It's another defense that's going to be a real challenge for us."

Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith has six-plus tackles in 20 consecutive games. Yet Smith knows that he and his teammates cannot take anything for granted against the Bears, who have a playmaking wide receiver in Alshon Jeffery and an upstart running back in rookie Jordan Howard.

What is Smith's take on the Bears' offensive scheme?

"It's simple, but they can beat you being simple," Smith told the Florida Times-Union. "If you look at the Colts game when they put up 500 yards, it's a lot of simple scheme.

"If you don't play well, you'll get embarrassed. You'll get a lot of yards put up on you if you make the situation harder than it has to be."

The Bears also hope to avoid embarrassment on defense. The team has allowed 346.0 yards per game, which is ranked in the middle of the pack at No. 14. Chicago has four takeaways in five games.

Look for linebacker Danny Trevathan to make a bigger impact this weekend. Trevathan returned last week after missing a couple of games because of a thumb injury. He was one of Chicago's top free-agent signings during the offseason after he won a Super Bowl title with the Denver Broncos.

"He was rusty from a mental standpoint out there," Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio told reporters. "You could see where he was off two or three weeks. I think he'll be better this week."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: 49ers (1-4) at Bills (3-2)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. - Two seasons traveling on opposite trajectories intersect Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the San Francisco 49ers.

The Bills (3-2) have won three in a row since coach Rex Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman after an 0-2 start.

The 49ers (1-4) opened the season with a win but have since lost four straight and coach Chip Kelly is making his own change in hopes of reviving the offense.

Colin Kaepernick will replace Blaine Gabbert as San Francisco's starting quarterback, Kelly announced this week.

"We just felt like we needed to do something on the offensive side to get us going," Kelly said. "When you look at the depth on the offensive side of the ball, it was the one maneuver we could make."

Kaepernick, who helped lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl after the 2012 season and the NFC title game the following year, has not started since Nov. 1, a 27-6 loss to the Rams. He appeared in one more game before being ruled out for the season and finished with 1,615 passing yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games.

"Kap has been here before. Kap has done it before," 49ers offensive coordinator Curtis Modkins said. "He's no stranger to being a starting quarterback in this league and we look forward to seeing him move the football team."

Offseason shoulder, thumb and knee surgeries prevented Kaepernick from competing for job in the preseason. He backed up Gabbert for the first five games.

"I'm excited to be back out there," Kaepernick said. "I'm excited to have the opportunity to help my team win a game this week."

Kaepernick has received more attention for his national anthem protests than his play this season. Kaepernick is kneeling for the anthem to bring attention to social injustices and police brutality.

"Regardless of my play, this movement is going to be legitimate. People's lives are always going to be legitimate, they're always going to be worthwhile, they're always going to be worth fighting for," Kaepernick said. "Now if me winning some games and playing well amplifies how much people want to listen to what I'm saying and what I'm fighting for, great. But regardless of what happens on the field, there's nothing that can delegitimize what this movement is about."

Gabbert passed for 890 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions in his five starts. In last week's 33-21 loss to Arizona, Gabbert threw two interceptions in 49ers territory that led to 10 Cardinals points. He ranks last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.9) and has the second-lowest passer rating (69.6), but he has the most rushing yards of any quarterback (172) and two rushing touchdowns.

Modkins said Kapernick is similar enough to Gabbert that the 49ers won't change their offense to suit the new quarterback.

No matter who plays quarterback, Ryan respects Kelly's up-tempo offense and insists the Bills won't look past the 49ers.

"This is a dangerous team, there's no question about it," Ryan said. "We've won three games in a row, but we haven't won four games in a row. We need to focus on this opponent and believe me, we will. If we lose, it's not going to have anything to do with the fact that we overlooked somebody. That's not happening here."

The Bills are on a three-game winning streak for the first time since 2011 and have not won four in a row since starting 4-0 in 2008.

Under new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, the Bills have rejuvenated the rushing attack that led the NFL last season. In the past three wins, the Bills have averaged 178.3 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry. In the two losses, the Bills averaged 75.5 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry.

LeSean McCoy is coming off his best game in two seasons with the Bills. He rushed for 150 yards on 18 carries (8.3 average) in last week's 30-19 win over the Los Angeles Rams. McCoy currently ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and his 5.3-yard average ranks fifth among running backs carrying the ball at least 10 times per game.

"I'm just feeling good," McCoy said. "The guys up front are blocking really well, we're winning games and that's just the main focus. I'm trying to win games in Buffalo and that's all that really matters."

Last season, when Kelly was still coaching the Eagles, McCoy caused a stir before the Bills' Dec. 13 trip to Philadelphia by saying he would refuse to shake hands with Kelly because he was upset with being traded from the Eagles in the previous offseason.

McCoy said Wednesday that facing Kelly is no longer a big deal to him.

"For sure, way behind me," he said. "I think it was more just the team than Chip. Going back to my old team, where I did so much there, I got there at 20 years old. I was. I was there for quite some time, so I think more it had to do with just going back home."

The Bills might be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus again. Dareus was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy and was inactive last week because of a hamstring injury. Dareus has yet to practice this week and is questionable for Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Steelers (4-1) at Dolphins (1-4)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Week 6 NFL matchup that will take place this Sunday in Miami is a contest of two teams headed in different directions.

The Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 30-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Miami is 1-4 and not playing very good football on offense or defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit atop the AFC North at 4-1 and fly into South Florida on a two-game winning streak.

Both teams have suffered key injuries to starting players.

The Dolphins entered their Week 5 game against the Titans missing seven projected starters.

The Steelers played the New York Jets in Week 5 down four starters and lost captain and defensive end Cam Heyward in the game because of a hamstring injury.

The Dolphins' backups have not stepped up while the Steelers' players and head coach Mike Tomlin live by the "next-man-up" credo.

"It's the next man up," linebacker Jarvis Jones said. "Coach Tomlin is really serious about it. Guys take pride when they're the next man up.

"When you get that helmet you have to take full advantage of it. The guys did great this week and we got a great win together."

Added linebacker Vince Williams, who led the defense in tackles for back-to-back weeks while filling in for injured inside linebacker Ryan Shazier: "The standard is the standard. You know we believe in that. That's real. That's it. I don't know what else you want me to say. Nobody on this team believes they are a backup. Everybody just believes they are waiting for their opportunity to put their hand in the pile and help this team win football games."

While the Steelers have used this motto to continue to win games, the Dolphins, with healthy players or not, continue to struggle in all phases.

The offensive line without injured left tackle Brendan Albert (flu) and left guard Laremy Tunsil (ankle) gave up six sacks to the Titans. Starting right tackle Ja'Wuan James allowed a sack against Tennessee, meaning he has allowed at least one sack in each of the last three games.

James might have caught a break with the injury to Heyward. The starting left end for the Steelers will not play against the Dolphins. This is the first missed game in Heyward's career and snaps his streak of 85 straight games played.

Tomlin's motto of "next man up" falls into the lap of backup defensive end Ricardo Mathews and a rotation from nose tackle to end by Daniel McCullers and Javon Hargrave.

The Steelers' defense runs a 3-4 so the linebackers will be asked to blitz more this week against a struggling Dolphins offensive line.

The Dolphins released former starting right guard Billy Turner and 2015 16-game starting guard Dallas Thomas on Monday. Head coach Adam Gase knows his team needs to play better especially along the offensive line.

Gase said: "We're inept right now. We've just got to figure something out. We tried to slow it down (Sunday), and huddle, and we only had 41 plays and eat up 23 minutes. We're not getting enough first downs.

"We had a chance there on the third-and-1, and the ball gets batted down. We think we're in the end zone to be down by three and we get a holding call. It just seems that we can't get out of our own way right now."

The Steelers don't share that same feeling on offense. The offensive line needs to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger better as indicated by the nine sacks they have allowed.

But Roethlisberger is third in the NFL with 1,496 yards passing and has thrown for 15 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

Where the Steelers will look to make their offensive mark on Sunday is running the football. Running back Le'Veon Bell has accounted for 432 offensive yards since returning from his three-game suspension. The former Michigan State Spartan is averaging 105 yards rushing per game.

The Dolphins' run defense is the worst in the NFL and allows on average 150.8 yards per game. The much maligned defense without starting linebackers Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins allowed 235 yards rushing to the Titans.

Running back DeMarco Murray had 27 carries for 121 yards.

"We weren't finishing our tackles; that'll kill you every time, especially with a running back like that," Gase said of Murray.

The Dolphins have allowed two bruising style runners to gain over 120 yards against them this season. New England Patriots and former Steelers running back LeGarrette Blount was the first. Bell fits that mold as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rams (3-2) at Lions (2-3)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

DETROIT -- The Detroit Lions have failed to find any consistency on offense. Their opponent this week has been even worse.

Both teams will be seeking better results when the Los Angeles Rams visit Detroit on Sunday.

The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak by defeating the previously unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles 24-23 last Sunday despite gaining just 45 yards in the second half. Detroit's offense failed to produce a touchdown the previous week against Chicago's injury-riddled defense.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford did throw three first-half touchdown passes against the Eagles but is mindful that the Rams held Detroit's offense to two scores in a 21-14 Lions loss last season in St. Louis.

"We played a team that was undefeated and was playing really well on defense. But each week presents a new challenge," he said. "This week against the Rams is no different. They have a really talented defense and a smart defensive coordinator (Gregg Williams) who gives you a bunch of looks. It will be on us to adjust and move forward."

Stafford was sacked four times by the Rams last season and that's a big concern for coach Jim Caldwell.

"They can rush the passer," he said. "They've got guys that can get up the field. Everybody knows about (defensive tackle Aaron) Donald. He's an inside rusher that can give you a lot of problems. But out on the edge you can just go on and on about those guys. There's a lot of guys that can get up the field and they give you a lot of problems in terms of the looks they have."

The Lions fortified their backfield by signing veteran Justin Forsett this week. It's uncertain how much he'll play behind current starter Theo Riddick.

Detroit (2-3) is hopeful of getting its top pass rusher, Ziggy Ansah, back in action after he missed the past three games with a high ankle sprain. It's likely to be without defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who has a shoulder injury.

The Rams (3-2) had a three-game winning streak snapped by the Buffalo Bills, 30-19. Quarterback Case Keenum threw for a season-high 271 yards but tossed two interceptions, including a pivotal pick-six with the score tied in the third quarter.

Los Angeles also failed to convert a fake punt at its 25-yard-line while trailing by four late in the game, allowing Buffalo to score a clinching touchdown.

"They created turnovers and made big plays in two situations," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "We didn't get any turnovers and we gave up too many rushing yards."

The Rams outgained the Bills 365-305, which Fisher saw as a sign of progress for an offense ranked last in average total yards (284.2) and tied for last with Houston in points (16.4 per game).

"We're getting better on third down," he said. "We made some plays on third down, we had nine explosive plays against a really good defense and had 23 first downs. You can take the 32nd in the league and write all you want about it, but this offense is improving."

Perhaps so, but the centerpiece to the attack can't find much room. Second-year back Todd Gurley is averaging 2.7 yards per carry and is still seeking his first 100-yard game this season.

Gurley had 140 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Detroit last year.

"Don't be fooled by (his stats)," Caldwell said. "I'm going to tell you something -- that guy is dangerous."

The most consistent element of the offense has been kicker Greg Zuerlein, who has made all nine of his field-goal attempts and his seven extra-point tries.

"Greg is kicking really well right now," Fisher said. "I'd like for Greg to kick off and kick extra points. He's hitting his field goals, but our touchdown-to-field goal ratio is not where it should be. We need touchdowns."

Los Angeles' defense took a big hit against Buffalo when top cornerback Trumaine Johnson suffered an ankle injury that will sideline him for this week's game. Johnson returned an interception for a touchdown against Stafford and the Lions last season.

He'll be replaced by second-year corner Troy Hill. The team added some depth by claiming Dwayne Gratz off waivers from Jacksonville.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Browns (0-5) at Titans (2-3)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- It was generally understood before the season started that the Cleveland Browns would be one of the NFL's worst teams. Then the injuries began, and haven't ended yet.

In losing its first five games, Cleveland played five quarterbacks. Opening-game starter Robert Griffin III (shoulder) is out for the year, second-game starter Josh McCown (shoulder) just resumed practicing this week, third-stringer Cody Kessler (chest/ribs) was knocked out last week and waiver-wire pickup Charlie Whitehurst (knee) was released with an injury settlement Tuesday after limping off the field near the end of last week's 33-13 loss to New England.

Converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who has actually played quite well at wide receiver, finished last week's defeat under center. To replace Whitehurst, the Browns promoted rookie Kevin Hogan from the practice squad.

Adding left guard Joel Bitonio (mid-foot) to the infirmary for Sunday's game at the Tennessee Titans further weakens an offensive line that doesn't need weakening.

"You obviously don't want any injuries," left tackle Joe Thomas said, "but you understand they are part of the game. That is why it is important to build your depth on any team. In the NFL, it is not a matter of if injuries are going to happen, it is a matter of when."

Bitonio's injury seems particularly ill-timed considering Tennessee (2-3) demonstrated last week in a 30-17 victory at Miami that it can get after the quarterback. Working over a Dolphins offensive line that started two backups, the Titans bagged six sacks of Ryan Tannehill.

With Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan and Jurrell Casey coming off two-sack games each, it would seem like Tennessee has a real chance to terrorize whoever takes snaps for Cleveland.

"We are not going to put together an entirely different scheme together based on the injury to (Bitonio)," Titans coach Mike Mularkey said. "We have got a set scheme. We are going to attack. Dick LeBeau does a good job attacking where he thinks weaknesses are, and we will go from there."

Until last week, LeBeau could have had a grand old time attacking his own team's offense. Tennessee was averaging just 15.5 points before its victory in Miami, which saw DeMarco Murray rush for 121 yards on 27 carries and Marcus Mariota threw for three touchdowns and rushed for a fourth.

Of course, that was on the road and the Titans' next three games are in Nissan Stadium. Most teams are better at home, but Tennessee isn't most teams, as it has painfully proved over and over. Since the 2014 season's beginning, the Titans have lost 16 of 18 at home, with both wins coming against Jacksonville.

"I don't think consistency has been something we've done around here," Mariota said. "If we're able to do that and build one good game after another, we'll like the direction we're going in."

Like his team, Mariota has struggled at home, turning the ball over three times in a 17-10 loss to Oakland on Sept. 25. But he has shown glimpses of his considerable potential with four four-touchdown games in his first 17 starts, matched only by Charlie Conerly of the 1948-49 New York Giants.

Mularkey was happy with Mariota's decision-making at Miami.

"He really took what the defense gave us and that is what we're looking for," Mularkey said. "We didn't make any crucial mistakes, which we had made in earlier games while he was trying to make more happen."

Regardless of whether McCown or Kessler gets the call at quarterback for the Browns, they figure to base their offense around running back Isaiah Crowell. Despite being held to 22 yards last week as New England stacked the line of scrimmage, Crowell is fifth in the NFL with 416 yards through five games.

Crowell, Pryor (24 catches, 338 yards) and versatile backup running back Duke Johnson give Cleveland some nice weapons offensively. But a revolving door at quarterback and the lack of depth on the offensive line has hampered first-year coach Hue Jackson's efforts to build a dangerous attack.

"I know it is frustrating for the fans," Pryor said. "It is frustrating for us. It is probably frustrating for some of you guys that are Cleveland Browns fans and reporters, as well.

"This is the time we have to stick together and keep fighting. If we don't quit, good things are going to come out."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cowboys (4-1) at Packers (3-1)

Date: October 16, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones insists Tony Romo will be the starting quarterback once he's healthy.

Dak Prescott continues to assure that it will be a tough decision.

The Dallas rookie has yet to throw an interception while leading Dallas to a 4-1 start and he attempts to again avoid the key miscues when the Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).

Prescott ascended to the starting job after Romo broke a vertebra in his back during the preseason. He has displayed poise beyond his 23 years of age by completing 69 percent of his passes, and his ongoing streak of 155 attempts without an interception is a rookie record.

But that stellar start hasn't altered the outlook of Jones.

"Tony is our No. 1 quarterback. We're going to have the luxury of being able to, I think, see them both," Jones said. "I don't want to presume that Dak is going to be necessarily healthy, I don't want to presume anything like that.

"But I welcome the opportunity of having Dak playing at this level and Tony back in excellent health. It's going to be really special for the Cowboys."

The Packers (3-1) have no debate at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers firmly entrenched and the perennial Pro Bowler has seven touchdown passes against no interceptions in five career meetings against Dallas.

However, Rodgers is coming off a suspect performance against the New York Giants in which he was just 23-of-45 passing for 259 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

The 259 yards do qualify as a season best for Rodgers, who has thrown nine touchdown passes against three interceptions.

Rodgers might be asked to throw more against the Cowboys with running backs Eddie Lacy (ankle) and James Starks (knee) both ailing.

Undrafted rookie Don Jackson might be promoted from the practice squad and Jackson has been receiving a crash course just in case Lacy (team-best 295 rushing yards) is unavailable.

"Well, it's going to have to be next guy up," Rodgers said. "We're going to have to see who that is and adjust accordingly. I'm thinking Eddie is going to be OK this week -- hopefully."

Rodgers also hopes receiver Randall Cobb (neck) is cleared to play after taking a hit late in the win over the Giants.

Green Bay's defense will face a challenge as it goes up against stellar Dallas rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' rugged offensive line.

Elliott leads the NFL with 546 rushing yards and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry with a hard-charging running style that includes power, speed and the occasional hurdle.

Yet the Packers feature the NFL's top-ranked rushing defense and the sensational performances through four games include superb figures such as allowing just 42.8 yards per game and 1.99 yards per carry.

"Always excited for a challenge," Elliott said. "That's what competitors love, to go out there and be challenged."

The longest gain allowed by the Packers is just 14 yards. The run defense was a weakness last season when the Packers allowed 119.1 yards per game, but that has certainly changed this season.

"They're really good in their base defense when they play their 3-4 (alignment) and they're awfully good when they play their nickel personnel," Dallas coach Jason Garrett said. "They have really active defensive linemen. They're active on the edges.

"The linebackers are around the football. They're just a very good defensive team and they stop the run really, really well."

Inside linebacker Jake Ryan leads the Packers with 29 tackles and outside linebacker Nick Perry has a team-best 4 1/2 sacks for a defense that is somehow receiving little attention for its strong play.

"We just want to continue to get better. We just want to continue to fly under the radar," veteran outside linebacker Julius Peppers said. "We don't want anybody to talk about us, to tell us how good we are."

It hasn't yet been determined whether the Green Bay secondary will be shadowing Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant on Sunday.

Bryant participated through a small portion of Wednesday's practice for his first work since injuring his right knee against Chicago on Sept. 25.

The Cowboys have taken the cautious approach with his injury and Bryant is fine with that.

"Yeah, I'm OK with it because we are sitting at 4-1," Bryant said. "We're doing an extremely great job. It's no need to rush things. Like I said, that plays a huge factor."

Weak-side linebacker Sean Lee (team-best 45 tackles) and strong safety Barry Church (37 stops) are enjoying strong seasons for the Dallas defense.

The Packers have won the past four meetings, including a 28-7 victory last season when Rodgers passed for 218 yards and two touchdowns.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Eagles (3-1) at Redskins (3-2)

Date: October 16, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

ASHBURN, Va. -- Last year, the NFC East was a debacle, with the division-winning Washington Redskins taking the lone playoff spot at 9-7.

This year, it is been the best division in football so far.

Every team has at least two wins, and the Redskins, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are a combined 10-4.

The first real division showdown of the season comes Sunday at FedEx Field where the Eagles (3-1) face the Redskins (3-2). The winner would find itself in first place or tied for first if Dallas (4-1) loses on the road to the Green Bay Packers.

Last year, Washington swept Philadelphia, clinching the NFC East in the next-to-last week on the road at Lincoln Financial Field. However, the Redskins will see a far more cohesive Eagles team this time around, with rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and new coach Doug Pederson leading Philadelphia.

The Redskins' ideal scenario on defense would be bringing pressure from all over to force Wentz into youthful mistakes. However, is proving to be a good athlete capable of making plays on the move. Wentz has completed 67.4 percent of his passes.

Washington, meanwhile, has struggled to generate consistent pressure through its first five games. Even so, the Redskins can't treat Wentz like an average rookie. He is making opponents who do so pay for it, and he has thrown just one interception in 135 pass attempts. He has seven touchdown passes.

"When teams blitz, it takes everybody," Wentz said. "It takes the O-line picking up guys, getting their jobs done and then receivers winning. It takes receivers, tight ends, running backs. It takes them winning and getting open early. I think we've done a really good job of that. We're all playing on the same page, playing fast."

Wentz will be without left tackle Lane Johnson, who had a 10-game suspension by the NFL upheld this week. He begins serving it and won't play. That leaves Wentz's blindside in the hands of a fellow rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who played college football at Texas Christian.

The Redskins likely will try to take advantage of Vaitai. They have rotated pass rushers Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith and Trent Murphy at outside linebacker all season, and so far Murphy has produced the most.

Murphy, who gained 30 pounds at the team's request to move to defensive end, had to move back to outside linebacker in training camp after a season-ending injury to pass-rush specialist Junior Galette. Murphy has been dynamite with a team-best 4.5 sacks in his third season. He only had six total in his first two years in the NFL.

Kerrigan has 2.5 sacks and is dealing with groin and elbow injuries. Smith has been a disappointment after an eight-sack rookie season. He has yet to record one sack in 2016.

Better tackling helped fuel Washington's win against the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. That had better continue against an Eagles team that has players such as running back Darren Sproles who can punish teams for missing.

"Compared to the Cleveland game, I thought it was a major improvement, that's for sure," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said of his linebackers and safeties bringing Ravens players to the ground quickly and consistently. "I think they took it all upon themselves to make sure they were more sound in their fundamentals as far as tackling is concerned. I got tired of hearing about it."

Washington could be without star tight end Jordan Reed, who has a suspected concussion. That would be a major loss. Reed had two touchdowns in the division-clinching win Dec. 26 in Philadelphia.

The Redskins need to get the ball to wide receiver DeSean Jackson, either way. He had just four catches the past two weeks. It doesn't hurt that Jackson often torches for former team. In three games against the Eagles since leaving Philadelphia after the 2013 season, Jackson has 13 catches for 283 yards and a touchdown. However, the animosity he held for former Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly, who cut him unceremoniously, is gone now.

"Doug Pederson is actually a good friend of mine," Jackson said. "We got a good relationship when he was in Philly coaching, so I don't have no bad taste in my mouth versus him. We'll just play, and hopefully we'll get this win."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colts (2-3) at Texans (3-2)

Date: October 16, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- Five games into the Brock Osweiler era and Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien has been cornered into defending a quarterback who, despite the hefty free-agent price tag, has performed no better than the collection of mediocre signal callers the Texans employed after running Matt Schaub out of town on the nearest rusty rail.

With Osweiler underperforming again in a road loss to the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday, an effort that included his seventh interception this season, the chorus of discontent only swelled. The Texans (3-2) invested $37 million guaranteed in Osweiler over two seasons hoping that he'd offer an improvement over the Ryan Fitzpatrick-Brian Hoyer-Ryan Mallett hodgepodge working under center in recent seasons.

Instead, the Texans have received more of the same at a greater cost. With the Indianapolis Colts (2-3) coming to town on Sunday and first place in the AFC South up for grabs, the Texans' offense ranks among the worst in the NFL. Osweiler is part of the issue.

Only two quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than Osweiler: Fitzpatrick (10) with the Jets and Buccaneers second-year quarterback Jameis Winston (eight). With Osweiler taking every snap this season, the Texans' passer rating (70.6) ranks 30th in the league, as does their yards per pass play (6.0). Their 208.6 passing yards per game is 29th in the NFL.

"I think Brock is working very hard," said O'Brien, who relieved offensive coordinator George Godsey of play-calling duties two weeks ago. "He's very prepared. I think all of us, including himself, we all have to do a better job. I'm sure he'd be the first one to tell you. Look, he's got to improve in this area, that area, you know all those things.

"I think overall I've been happy with the way the guy prepares. Not happy with the way the offense has played. Not blaming it on anybody. Really taking responsibility for it here, right here because that's where the responsibility lies when you're the head football coach."

With Osweiler as the focal point offensively, the Texans ranks 27th in yards per game (310.4), 30th in scoring offense averaging 16.4 points and 31st in yards per play (4.7).

And while Osweiler has struggled with ball security, the Texans' issues offensively extend to the running game where another free agent, Lamar Miller, has yet to score despite 101 rushing attempts. His 371 rushing yards are fifth in the AFC and ninth in the league, but Miller is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, well below expectations given his speed and past reputation as a constant threat to score.

The Texans have struggled with injuries on their offensive line -- three-time Pro Bowl tackle Duane Brown made his debut against the Vikings -- but averaging 3.8 yards per carry represents woes greater that health and getting Miller acclimated.

"I can promise you the way we study the tape as an offense, the way our coaches prepare us, the way our coaches coach us up throughout the week, especially after games when we break down that film, I can promise you we're getting better every single week," Osweiler said.

The Colts have dealt with their own issues on the offensive line, both in terms of health and productivity. They invested four draft picks in the line this past spring and three of those draftees -- center Ryan Kelly, guard/tackle Joe Haeg and tackle Austin Blythe -- have started for the Colts this season.

With right guard Denzell Goode returning from a back injury last week against the Bears, the Colts trotted out their optimal offensive line, relegating right tackle Joe Reitz to the bench. Yet they surrendered five sacks en route to a shootout victory.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has been sacked a league-high 20 teams for a league-leading 126 yards. He still ranks among the top five in the league in completions (second, 131), attempts (third, 205), yards (fourth, 1,469) and touchdown passes (tied for fifth, 10).

The Colts are fifth in the NFL in scoring at 27.4 points per game, but keeping Luck upright has been a problem and is a priority.

"I think maybe a bit too much is being made out of that," Luck said of the number of hits he has taken. "I think just go out, play football. Getting hit can be part of the position and part of it."

Colts coach Chuck Pagano said, "You don't want your quarterback hit. Period. We're trying to do everything possible to make sure that doesn't happen and limit that. He knows that and everybody knows that."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Chiefs (2-2) at Raiders (4-1)

Date: October 16, 2016 4:05 PM EDT

The Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders face off twice a year and have done so in their 57 seasons together in first the American Football League and since 1970, the National Football League.

The games are almost always entertaining, aggressively played and sometimes have extracurricular activity during the play and after the whistle. It's considered one of pro football's most storied rivalries.

That has not been the case over the last two decades, however. Both franchises have struggled for consistent winning and been unable to grab a Super Bowl victory.

As the Chiefs (2-2) come off their bye week and head to Oakland for Sunday's game against the Raiders (4-1), both teams are without losing records. Kickoff is 3:05 p.m. CDT at the Oakland Coliseum.

The last time the teams did not sport at least one losing record before the game was 2010. The most recent case where both teams had a winning record going into one of their two games was in 2002.

Oakland reached the Super Bowl after that '02 season, before losing to Tampa Bay in the title game. That's also the last time the Raiders were 4-1.

Coach Jack Del Rio's team is on a three-game winning streak that hasn't always been pretty, but has the Raiders tied for the AFC West lead with Denver.

"I think we have a healthy perspective of what we want to look like and knowing that we're not quite there," Del Rio said. "There is a lot of work in front of us. I don't think anybody would disagree with that. A lot of things we must do better as we go forward. We're working hard at it."

For coach Andy Reid and his Chiefs, they've been sitting with the vile taste in their mouth of a 43-14 butt-whipping provided by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 2.

No one involved in Kansas City has reached for a panic button given the club's performance last season when they started 1-5, but then won 10 straight games to make the playoffs and picked up a first-round shutout of the Houston Texans.

Reid has spent two weeks looking at his team's four-game performance, where inconsistency is the best description of their play. The Chiefs failed in all three phases of the game against Pittsburgh, so improvement is imperative across the board.

"We've got to coach better, we've got to play better," Reid said. "We all have to do a better job against this team."

Last season, the Chiefs swept the Raiders, winning by 14 points in Oakland and six points in Kansas City. Since arriving at Arrowhead Stadium, Reid's record against the Raiders is 5-1 and including his time in Philadelphia, he has an overall 6-3 vs. Oakland.

Where Reid's record glitters is after a bye week. In 17 seasons with the Eagles and Chiefs, his teams are 15-2 post-bye. Reid has a regular-season career winning percentage of .592, but his teams in the week after bye have won at a .882 clip.

"Every year is different," Reid said. "It's situational, who you play and where you play. I don't even look at that."

The young Raiders have shown major growth this season when it comes to handling themselves in close games. They've won by one, seven, one and three points, after losing five games last season by six points or fewer.

It's an impressive improvement from a team that against San Diego started five rookies and used a dozen first-year players in their victory.

"We wanted to take a step forward in terms of understanding how you flourish in those situations and make the winning plays," Del Rio said. "The NFL is about close games and you have to play well in those critical moments in order to win."

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr confirms that a lot of sweat has gone into establishing a winning mindset in the huddle.

"We work extremely hard and especially in those situations," Carr said. "We spend a lot of time throwing routes, going over coverage, going over two-minute drills, end of game situations.

"You hang your hat on that. We've done this before. Let's be confident when we take the field and go do it."

One factor that should help the Chiefs is a bigger role for running back Jamaal Charles. He's one year and five days removed from the torn ACL in his right knee and Reid said this week that baring any setbacks, his role should expand from the 10 plays and two carries he saw against Pittsburgh.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Falcons (4-1) at Seahawks (3-1)

Date: October 16, 2016 4:25 PM EDT

SEATTLE -- Dan Quinn took over as the Atlanta Falcons' head coach in 2015 with the expectation that his respected defensive mind would overhaul one of the league's most porous defenses.

The former Seahawks defensive coordinator returns to Seattle on Sunday with a defense that hasn't made many noticeable strides over the past 19 months, but armed with a red-hot offense that ranks first in in the NFL in points (35.0), total yards (457.4) and passing yards (333.4) per game. The rushing attack? That's the black sheep of the offensive family, ranking seventh at 124.0 yards per game.

So the stage is set for Quinn to bring his NFC South-leading Falcons (4-1) to the Pacific Northwest for Sunday's 4:25 p.m. ET tilt (FOX) against the Seahawks (3-1), who are coming off a much-needed bye week and looking to create some early breathing room in the NFC West.

"Their offense is just out of this world right now," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said of the Falcons. "Their quarterback is on fire. They're doing a great job. I know Dan is fired up about it and we're excited to see him play well, and it'll feel like a championship matchup, just like we like. "

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan leads the NFL with 1,740 passing yards and 10.4 yards per completion while throwing 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions through five games. He has 26 completions of 20-plus yards and 10 of 40-plus, which both lead the NFL. And he certainly is not doing it alone, as Ryan is buffeted by a supporting cast that includes Julio Jones along with upgraded complementary wideouts and a two-headed backfield featuring Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman -- each a versatile threat who contributes to the passing game.

Jones had a 300-yard game two weeks ago when the Carolina Panthers gambled on man coverage and got repeatedly burned. Most other opponents have dedicated an extra man to Jones, opening opportunities for Mohamed Sanu, among others, to do the bulk of the damage.

Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman has shadowed the Jets' Brandon Marshall, among others, in recent seasons, but there is no guarantee how the Seahawks will game-plan to face the Falcons.

"I'm not their coach to decide that," Jones said when asked if he expects to be shadowed by Sherman. "It's whatever they do. I'm not calling anyone out or anything, nor am I going to shy away from competition. I'm definitely going to compete every play, it doesn't matter who's guarding me."

Ironically, it will be a unit whose foundation was built by Carroll and current Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley and then continued by Carroll and Quinn that will now be charged with showing the rest of the NFL that Ryan & Co. can be tamed.

Seattle has led the league in scoring defense for four consecutive seasons -- including twice under Quinn -- and currently ranks third in scoring defense (13.5 points per game), first in yards allowed (264.0), second in passing yards allowed (183.8) and seventh in rushing yards allowed (80.2).

However, the Seahawks haven't faced anything this season the likes of the Falcons, with Seattle's first four games coming against the fledgling offensive units of the Miami Dolphins (29th in total offense), Los Angeles Rams (32nd), San Francisco 49ers (31st) and New York Jets (17th).

For much of Quinn's tenure in Seattle, he oversaw a defense that was the identity of a hard-nosed team along with the Marshawn Lynch-led ground game. What he will contend with Sunday is an offense now well-equipped to engage in a shootout, especially if quarterback Russell Wilson is close to full health following a bye week to rest his right ankle and left knee sprains.

Seattle doesn't use a traditional fullback anymore, with coordinator Darrell Bevell increasingly playing Wilson off the line of scrimmage and setting him up to spread the ball to a deep receiving corps, with the ground game now a complement off the passing attack.

Quinn came to Atlanta as a noted defensive mind, but he returns to Seattle with a unit that is ranked 27th in points allowed (28.0 per game), 26th in yards allowed (388.8) and 26th in passing yard allowed (290.2). The pass rush, so critical to a scheme that doesn't feature heavy blitzing, has produced just 10 sacks through five games despite consistently facing offenses in must-pass situations. Pass rusher Vic Beasley, a 2015 first-round draft pick, has 4.5 of the team's sacks.

"Pretty similar, a lot of things," Carroll said of the scheme Quinn brought to Atlanta. "They've got their own coaches that coach things differently and stuff like that. There's a lot of basics too that are similar."

The Seahawks scored a total of 15 points while squeaking past Miami in Week 1 before a 9-3 loss in Los Angeles in Week 2. But as has been customary under offensive line coach Tom Cable, the front five has steadily improved and Bevell has made adjustments while Wilson battled through limited mobility that all but eliminated the rollouts and read-options that were so critical to the offense's success the past three seasons. Wilson is getting the ball out quickly, and the return of tight end Jimmy Graham has added yet another weapon to a quietly deep arsenal.

For all of Atlanta's offensive prowess, the defense remains vulnerable. The pass rush has struggled to generate consistent pressure, and the secondary comes under constant attack everyone other than Pro Bowl cornerback Desmond Trufant -- a former star at the University of Washington who grew up in Tacoma, Wash., and is the younger brother of former Seahawks star Marcus Trufant.

Trufant is intimately familiar with Husky Stadium, where the Falcons have been practicing this week after Quinn opted to have the team travel to the Pacific Northwest following a Sunday win at Denver rather than travel home and back. Quinn saw it as an opportunity to engage in some team-building, which sounds Carroll-esque.

"We thought it would be a unique time for our team to have that week together, and as well as the players not to battle back and forth through some time zones and some long flights," said Quinn, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "It just so happened this is how the schedule worked out. We're fortunate we have an opportunity to practice out here."

There is a lot on the line Sunday, perhaps as much as home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. But there are also a lot of respected ties between the two teams, including Quinn bringing his upstart Falcons to Seattle to battle his former mentor for an early pecking order in the conference.

"I don't know about pride, but it's exciting to see (Quinn)," Carroll said. "He's having fun. He's working hard. He has a team with an attitude and a personality. They had a great start last year, and they battled back and finished well at the end and they're off flying again.

"They seem to be really be utilizing their talent well and the people they picked up. They're doing a lot of really good things. It's really exciting to see, but I'm not going to get to caught up in the pride thing right now. We need to go play them."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jets (1-4) at Cardinals (2-3)

Date: October 17, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- When Bruce Arians first met Todd Bowles, he immediately knew his young safety with the Temple Owls would make a great coach one day.

"He'd be calling out what play you're getting ready to run," the Cardinals head coach said. "He just had a great feel for the game as a safety. ... Smart, tough. Just like he is as a coach."

Thirty-three years later, Arians and Bowles will square off as NFL head coaches for the first time when Arians' Cardinals (2-3) meet Bowles and the New York Jets (1-4) on Monday night at University of Phoenix Stadium. Neither team is off to a very good start, which will make their friendly rivalry play second fiddle to the game itself.

Not that it won't be on both coaches' mind, of course.

"Personally, with a guy that almost taught me half of my football life, you try not to let him down," Bowles said. "In order to not let him down, you've got to win the game. It's gratifying to see him get his due, and I try to work hard as best I can not to make him out to be a liar for giving me an opportunity and then giving me this opportunity.

"But, he's like my uncle, my big brother. He taught me so much in life and in football. Words can't describe how I feel about him."

Both coaches need a win Monday in the worst of ways.

Arians and the Cardinals can't afford a third loss at home this early into the season, one that most observers pegged Arizona as a legitimate Super Bowl contender following a 13-3 record a year ago. Bowles and the Jets, meanwhile, might not recover if they lose their fourth consecutive game to fall to 1-5.

Things have already gone in the Cardinals' favor as Arizona welcomed the return of quarterback Carson Palmer back to practice this week after he missed last Thursday night's win at the 49ers because of a concussion.

"Exciting. It was a lot of different emotions, but exciting," Palmer said of watching the game from his couch. "Obviously, you're bummed because you're not playing, but to see our defense play that way, to see us run the ball that way, to see Drew (Stanton) come in and have not gotten any reps and play the way he did, Fitz (Larry Fitzgerald) do what he did, and the offensive line. It was just great to see us go on the road in a tough place to play and get a division game and get on a winning track."

The Jets got some bad news this week when it was learned star receiver Eric Decker has been lost for the season. He was placed on injured reserve and was scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. Decker's absence puts that much more pressure on veteran wideout Brandon Marshall and, to a lesser extent, the Jets' collection of young receivers.

"Eric's a great football player," quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "He was very productive for us last year. He was going to be productive again for us this year, so we've got to have other guys step up now. There is nobody that's really going to be able to replace him, because he was and is such a special player, but we've got to supplement and get different guys going and play to their strengths, the other guys that we have stepping up.

"It's a tough blow for us to lose a player like Eric, but it happens to everybody, and again, nobody is going to feel sorry for us that he's not going to be out there. We've just got to push through and have other guys step up."

New York's defense has been giving up big plays at an alarming rate and it could get even worse against the Cardinals, especially if cornerback Darrelle Revis can't play or is limited because of a nagging hamstring injury. Overall, the Jets rank last in average yards per pass (9.2) and are tied for second-to-last in passing yards per game (302).

"I don't know if Revis is going to play or not, but there's some experience," said Palmer, who has thrown six touchdowns against five interceptions. "There are some guys that have played a lot of football back there. It's on Monday night. They're reeling for a win. We know they're coming in here, expecting to win and we're going to get their best shot."

The Jets need a clean game from Fitzpatrick, an Arizona native that played high school football at Gilbert Highlands. He's been intercepted a league-high 10 times, which included six picks during a recent loss to the Chiefs.

"It starts with me. I need to play better," Fitzpatrick said. "You're not going to be a very good offense if your quarterback isn't playing well, so I think that's the easiest solution. ... I've been frustrated with my play. I haven't played up to my abilities and what I expect out of myself, so I think as I play better, the offense is going to become more explosive and more consistent."

The Cardinals have plenty of firepower in second-year running back David Johnson, who was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for a single-season NFL-high 157 yards and running for two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco. With veteran Chris Johnson on injured reserve because of a groin injury, David Johnson figures to get more touches than even previously expected.

When Bowles looks at Johnson, who ranks third in the league in rushing with 457 yards and first in scrimmage yards with 695 yards, he sees a younger version of his own star running back, Matt Forte.

"Obviously Matt's older. David's explosive now," Bowles said. "He can do a lot of things that Matt does. He has great feet and good patience in the hole. He can juke you when he has to and he can run you over when he has to. He has outstanding hands, so he has the full trifecta."

The Cardinals will be playing without both of their starting guards because of ankle injuries as right guard Evan Mathis is on IR and Mike Iupati is expected to miss at least one to two more weeks. Both John Wetzel and Earl Watford filled in adequately last week, Arians said, but the competition gets a lot tougher this week against the Jets' ferocious defensive line.

"Yeah, they've got their hands full," Arians said. "They were uncovered for most of the game in San Francisco, blocking linebackers. They're going to have big, strong dudes on top of them this game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 6 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

Can you imagine if the Denver Broncos had somehow scored after recovering that late onside kick Thursday night in San Diego and sent the game into overtime? I have zero doubt in my mind if that happened that Bolts coach Mike McCoy would be out of a job today. The Chargers tried yet again to blow a big fourth-quarter lead but held on to improve to 2-4.

And it's the 1-4 teams that I will address today -- I'm mainly looking at defending NFC champion Carolina. The NFL expanded its playoff format to 12 teams 26 years ago. Since then, no team that was three games under .500 after Week 5 or later has ever reached the Super Bowl. But 17 made the playoffs and seven won their division, so hope is not lost for the Panthers, Chargers, Jets or Dolphins. The Bears and 49ers are also 1-4, but they aren't going to the playoffs. The Jaguars and Saints would be 1-4 with losses Sunday.

Last year, two 1-4 teams made the playoffs: Houston won the AFC South with a 9-7 record, and Kansas City actually started 1-5 before winning its final 10 regular-season games to take the AFC's top wild-card spot. The last time a team at least three games under after Week 5 didn't make the playoffs was 2013. Two teams at least three games under .500 after Week 5 have reached a conference championship game: the 1996 Jaguars and 2002 Titans. Carolina is familiar with this type of rally as it was 4-8-1 in 2014 but won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record.

The Panthers opened as 3-point favorites in New Orleans for this Sunday but it's now 2.5 with the Saints, who come off the bye week, taking a solid lean. That surprises me a bit considering Carolina will get back quarterback Cam Newton from his one-game absence due to a concussion and running back Jonathan Stewart, who has missed three with a hamstring injury. Newton has murdered the Saints in the past three against them, completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 872 yards and 10 touchdowns with one interception He also has rushed 29 times for 165 yards and two touchdowns. I know the Panthers are on a short week, but I would certainly give those points now that it's under a field goal. The total of 53 on this game is the highest of the week.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 6.

Chiefs at Raiders (+1, 47): This might be the most perplexing line move I have seen this season as the Raiders opened as 2-point favorites. What have the Chiefs done to deserve a 3-point swing here? True, they are off the bye. And, true, former Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles practiced in full this week for the first time since tearing his ACL around this time last year. And, true, QB Alex Smith has a 5-1 record against the Raiders, completing 61 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in those games. And, true, Chiefs coach Andy Reid has a 15-2 record in his career coming out of the bye week. Wait, what was my point again? It's interesting that Reid is so good out of the bye but has so much trouble with late in-game clock management at times. The Raiders might be without top running back Latavius Murray a second straight week, but I'd still take them as home dogs.

49ers at Bills (-9, 44): This line has risen two points at some sportsbooks and now Buffalo is the biggest favorite on the board and also a likely popular Survivor Pool pick this week. Of course the big story here is Colin Kaepernick making his first start in almost a year under center for the 49ers. Coach Chip Kelly obviously realizes this season is lost already and he might as well give Kap a shot to see if he fits in the offense. While I disagree with Kaepernick's National Anthem protests, I give him credit for renegotiating his contract with the team this week. Essentially, Kaepernick waived any guaranteed money next year if he was injured, and he can become a free agent after the year. That same injury clause is why the Redskins never played Robert Griffin III last year. You have to respect guys who bet on themselves like Kaepernick is doing here. Buffalo might be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus due to a hamstring injury. You may not be aware that Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is second in the NFL with seven sacks. If he has three on Sunday, he would tie for the most through six games since 2001; Elvis Dumervil had 10 with Denver in 2009. The more this line grows, the less I like the Bills.

Eagles at Redskins (+2.5, 44.5): I don't really get this line, either, as the Redskins opened as 1.5-point favorites at some books. Washington almost surely will be without Pro Bowl tight end Jordan Reed for this NFC East matchup as Reed is dealing with a concussion. That's scary for him because Reed has had multiple concussions, so you might not see him for a while. Despite missing two games with a concussion last year, Reed set a Redskins record for single-season receiving yards (952) by a tight end. He got a big extension in May. Reed leads all Washington receivers with 33 catches for 316 yards and two touchdowns this year. Redskins top cornerback Josh Norman will play through a badly sprained right wrist but will wear a cast so that could affect his chances of picking off a pass. The Eagles got bad news this week when Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson's appeal of his 10-game PED suspension was denied by an arbitrator. He can return Week 16. Rookie fifth-round pick Halapoulivaati Vaitai (buy a consonant dude!), who has yet to be active for a game, will take over Johnson's starting spot Philly also could be missing top cornerback Leodis McKelvin for this one due to a hamstring injury.