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NFL Football Trends

NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, Oct. 12th

Denver at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Denver: 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Jets: 16-5 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 42-24 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-21 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Tennessee: 9-1 OVER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Chicago at Atlanta, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 5-16 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
Atlanta: 3-19 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Green Bay at Miami, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 44-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
Miami: 6-0 ATS as a home underdog

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-9 ATS off a non-conference game
Minnesota: 67-40 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Cincinnati: 8-24 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 76-52 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 31-14 ATS after a win by 3 or less points

Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 38-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tampa Bay: 19-5 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games

San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 16-6 ATS after allowing 6 points or less last game
Oakland: 16-6 UNDER after a bye week

Dallas at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 12-4 ATS against conference opponents
Dallas: 42-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Washington: 0-4 against NFC West division opponents
Arizona: 10-3 off 1 or more straight overs

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
NY Giants: 33-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 30-13 UNDER in home games in October games

Monday, Oct. 13th

San Francisco at St Louis, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
St Louis: 7-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Denver @ NY Jets
The Broncos are 17-6 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 23-15 ATS overall, 22-11 ATS playing as a favorite, 12-3 ATS against losing teams and 4-1 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points. Denver is 84-54 Over the total as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 147-97 Over overall as a favorite, 107-61 Over with a total of 42½ to 49 points, 57-34 Over in weeks 5 through 9 and 40-24 Over on turf. The Jets are 5-12 ATS at home with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 0-4 ATS overall this season. New York is 5-2 Under off 2 or more consecutive losses. In This series Denver is 8-3 ATS including 3-1 at New York and 4 of the last 5 in New York have gone Over the total.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
The Steelers are 59-35 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, 25-18 ATS as road underdogs of 3 points or less and 67-47 ATS overall in the underdog role. Pittsburg is 8-2 Under in weeks 5 through 9 and 27-17 Under as road dogs of 3 points or less. The Browns are 4-9 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 2-5 ATS as favorites and 0-3 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less. Cleveland is 4-0 Over this season, but 26-9 Under as home favorites of 3 points or less. In this series Pittsburgh is 34-7 straight up including 14-5 straight up at Cleveland.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
The Jaguars are 11-20 ATS playing on grass and 8-13 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses. Jacksonville is 4-1 Over on grass. The Titans are just 2-9 ATS versus divisional opponents, but 6-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. Tennessee a big 44-23 Over playing in October and 8-3 Over after 2 or more consecutive losses. In this series the last 2 meetings in Tennessee have gone Over the total.

Chicago @ Atlanta
The Bears are 5-15 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 13-23 ATS overall, 5-11 ATs as underdogs, 7-20 ATs against NFC opponents, 0-3 ATS agaainst NFC South opponents, 1-5 ATS playing in domes and 4-9 ATS versus losing teams. Chicago is 25-12 Over overall, 15-6 Over when the line is 3 or less, 11-5 Over as an underdog, 15-4 Over on the road and 11-2 Over versus losing teams. The Falcons are 6-10 ATS versus losing teams, but 5-2 ATS at home when the total is 49½ points or more. Atlanta is 6-3 Under in weeks 5 through 9, 13-7 Under at home when the total is 49½ or more and 9-4 Under overall when the total is 49½ or more. In this series Chicago is 6-2 ATS and the total is 7-2 Over including 5-0 Over when playing in Atlanta.

Green Bay @ Miami
The Packers are 4-9 ATS when the line is 3 points or less and 2-5 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but they’re 16-10 ATS as favorites and 7-3 ATS in weekd 5 through 9. Green Bay is 13-7 Over on the road, 7-1 Over on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 53-39 Over versus AFC opponents, but they’re 10-5 Under off a divisional game and 7-3 Under off a divisional win. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or less and 10-6 ATS at home. Miami is 4-1 Over as home dogs of 3 or less, 14-8 Under off a bye week and 8-4 Under versus winning teams.

Detroit @ Minnesota
The Lions are 11-16 ATS versus NFC opponents and 2-6 ATS versus losing teams. Detroit is 6-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9. The Vikings are 3-7 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but 7-4 ATS off a divisional game. Minnesota 57-35 Over the total in weeks 5 through 9. In this series Minnesota is 31-13 straight up including 19-3 straight up at home. Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings.

Carolina @ Cincinnati
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 28-19 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points including 5-0 lately, 19-9 ATS on the road when the total is 42½ to 45 points,61-41 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points and 7-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but they’re just 3-6 ATS versus AFC opponents. Carolina is 50-35 Under in weeks 5 through 9 and 16-9 Under with a total of 42½ 49 points. The Bengals are 22-14 ATS overall, 11-3 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 7-1 ATS as home favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 13-5 ATS overall at home, 15-8 ATS on turf, 7-1 ATS against NFC opponents and 7-3 ATS against winning teams, but they’re 3-7 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Cincinnati is 79-58 Under when the total is 42½ to 49 points, but 6-3 Over versus NFC opponents and 6-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9. In this series 3 of the last 4 have gone Over the total.

New England @ Buffalo
The Patriots are 18-12 ATS on turf and 9-4 ATS when the line is 3 points or less. New England is 20-12 Over versus AFC opponents, 20-10 Over on turf, 11-4 Over versus winning teams and 8-2 Over in weeks 5 through 9. The Bills are 16-10 ATS home dogs of 3 points or less, 11-5 ATS overall at home and 4-1 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. Buffalo is 11-4 Under when the line is 3 points or less and 16-10 Under at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. In this series New England is 13-7 ATS at Buffalo and 3 of the last 4 have gone Over the total.

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
The Ravens are 2-6 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 3-7 ATS versus losing teams, but they’re 6-3 ATS versus NFC opponents and 3-1 ATS road favorites of 3 points or less. Baltimore is 4-1 Under as road favorites of 3 points or less and 7-3 Under versus losing teams, but also 6-3 Over versus NFC opponents. The Buccaneers are 11-16 ATS home dogs of 3 points or less, but 6-3 ATS against AFC opponents. Tampa Bay is 16-10 Over as an underdog and 9-0 Over in weeks 5 through 9, but 18-7 Under versus AFC North opponents. In this series all 4 meetings since 1992 have gone Over the total.

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are 63-46 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points including 5-0 this year, 12-6 ATS on the road, 17-10 ATS versus AFC opponents including 3-0 this year and 62-42 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins, but they’re just 15-25 ATS on the road with a total of 42½ to 45 points. San Diego is 17-12 Under versus AFC opponents. The Raiders are 14-20 ATS overall, 7-12 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 8-14 ATS home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 8-17 ATS on grass, 5-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses and 64-89 ATS at home including 5-11 lately. Oakland is 12-7 Under as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 10-6 Under at home and 16-6 Under coming off a bye week. In this series San Diego is 16-6 ATS at Oakland. 3 of the last 4 have gone Under the total including 2 straight in Oakland.

Dallas @ Seattle
The Cowboys are 12-6 ATS playing as underdogs, but 3-8 ATS as road dogs of 7½ to 10 points. Dallas is 18-11 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but 6-1 Over off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Seahawks are 29-12 ATS overall, 12-3 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 20-11 ATS overall favorites, 15-5 ATS at home, 22-8 ATS versus NFC opponents, 21-10 ATS on turf, 12-4 ATS versus winning teams, 13-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 16-6 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points, but they’re 29-53 ATS in October despite winning last week. Seattle is 4-0 Under versus NFC East opponents, but 9-4 Over after playing Monday night. In this series The Under is 8-3 including 4-1 Under playing in Seattle.

Washington @ Arizona
The Redskins are 0-4 ATS versus NFC West opponents and 8-16 ATS after playing on Monday night. Washington is 4-0 Over under a dome, but 15-9 Under after playing Monday night. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS versus NFC East opponents, but 2-8 ATS weeks 5 through 9. Arizona is 18-10 Under playing on turf and 3-0 Under versus NFC East opponents.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
The Giants are 25-17 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less, 7-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 62-44 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. New York is 12-5 Under when the line is 3 points or less, 12-6 Under on the road, 9-1 Under versus winning teams and 18-10 Under against NFC opponents. The Eagles are 5-14 ATS playing at home, 14-23 ATS overall, 4-8 ATS versus divisional opponents, 11-18 ATS on grass and 3-8 ATS versus winning teams. Philadelphia is 12-7 Over at home and 16-10 Over when the total is 49½ points or more.

San Francisco @ St Louis
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 26-16 ATS overall, 22-13 ATS overall favorites, 14-6 ATS on the road, 28-10 ATS on Monday night, 7-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, 6-3 ATs playing in a dome and 5-1 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less. San Francisco is 7-3 Over versus losing teams. The Rams are 17-32 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points, 51-73 ATS versus winning teams, 1-3 ATS this season including 0-2 ATS at home. St Louis is 57-41 Under when the line is 3 points or less, but 14-8 Over playing under a dome, 8-1 Over after 2 or more consecutive losses and 7-3 Over in weesk 5 through 9. In this series San Francisco is 27-15 ATS versus St Louis including 13-7 at St Louis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Injury-riddled Panthers and Bengals collide on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-2) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -7, Total: 43.5

The Panthers head to Ohio on Sunday to take on a Bengals team that will be highly motivated to shake off a dreadful Week 5 performance.

Carolina was able to end its two-game losing skid with a huge 31-24 comeback victory over the Bears in a game it trailed 21-7 early in the second quarter. Cincinnati was a perfect 3-0 in September, but opened October in New England on Sunday night and was blown out 43-17. These two teams have met just four times since the Panthers joined the NFL, and they have split wins SU, with the Carolina holding a 2-1-1 ATS edge. The last meeting came September 26, 2010, when the Bengals won 20-7 as 3.5-point road underdogs. Three of the four games played between these teams have gone Under the total and that could happen again, as both are good defensive teams. Playing in the Panthers’ favor, the Bengals are 5-18 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. They are, however, 10-1 ATS in home games over the past two years, and 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons. Both teams will be missing key offensive players in this game, as Carolina top two RBs DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Jonathan Stewart (knee) are both questionable, as is top TE Greg Olsen (ankle), while Cincinnati expects to be without its top two pass catchers in WRs A.J. Green (toe) and Marvin Jones (foot).

Can the Bengals bounce back from an ugly loss to beat the Panthers handily? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

Carolina was down two touchdowns against the Bears, but QB Cam Newton (983 pass yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) was able to pull out a victory for his team. Newton was 19-of-35 for 255 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. WR Kelvin Benjamin (24 rec, 367 yards, 3 TD) had his worst game as a pro, as he lost a fumble and caught just three of his 11 targets. TE Greg Olson (27 rec, 326 yards, 4 TD) was the most reliable target for this team, catching six passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns, which is why his questionable tag is important to keep an eye on. Newton and his offense thrived in the no-huddle offense, which they’ll likely feature in some capacity against this tough Bengals’ defense. The Panthers, however, are going to need to figure it out defensively. They were one of the most intimidating defenses in the league just a year ago, but they’re now giving up 238.8 passing yards per game (15th in NFL) and 129.6 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL). They’ll need to improve on both of those numbers to get where they want to be as a football team. Turnover margin has been crucial to the Carolina this season, as the club has a +7 TO margin in its three wins, and a minus-3 TO margin in three defeats.

Cincinnati started the season hot, but was destroyed by the Patriots on Sunday night. QB Andy Dalton (926 pass yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) was ineffective against the Patriots when it mattered, throwing for 204 yards with two touchdowns when the game was already over. Dalton should be able to get his team back on track with a matchup against the Panthers and their poor secondary, but he'll certainly miss top WR A.J. Green (17 rec, 314 yards, 2 TD). Cincinnati will likely go back to featuring its running game against the Panthers. RB Giovani Bernard (247 rush yards, 3 TD) had 62 yards on just 13 carries against the Pats. He is effective when he gets touches and the Bengals will likely do their best to make sure he sees the ball plenty. Their offense committed only one turnover during three wins, but had three giveaways last week. This Cincy defense will need to improve for this team to start winning again. The Bengals are allowing 250.8 passing yards per game (19th in NFL) and 140.0 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bills seek rare win vs. Patriots on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-2) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 45

The Patriots hit the road on Sunday when they travel to face the Bills with first place in the AFC East on the line.

New England responded to its Week 4 blowout loss in K.C. with a 43-17 crushing of undefeated Cincinnati last Sunday. Buffalo stopped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Lions 17-14 behind QB Kyle Orton’s 308 passing yards in his season debut as the Bills starter. The Patriots are plenty familiar with QB Tom Brady, who is 22-2 SU (14-9-1 ATS) with 54 TD and 19 INT in his career versus Buffalo. New England has won five straight meetings (3-2 ATS) between these division foes, and has enjoyed its visits to upstate New York, winning nine of the past 10 trips (7-2-1 ATS) to Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Bills, however, are 13-4 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past three seasons. The Patriots are also just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the past two years. Two key New England defenders -- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) and S Devin McCourty (ribs) -- are questionable for this matchup, but CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable. For Buffalo, LB Nigel Bradham (knee) and CB Ron Brooks (neck) are both questionable, but RB Fred Jackson (ankle) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.

Can the Bills get a rare win over the Patriots on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

After forcing only one turnover in the previous two games, the Patriots recorded three takeaways in the blowout win over the Bengals. CB Darrelle Revis was able to completely lock down top WR A.J. Green until Revis left the game with a hamstring injury, but his probable tag shows that Revis will play on Sunday, and will see plenty of time covering Sammy Watkins. This is one of the top passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 196.6 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL), and hope to make life on Kyle Orton extremely difficult. New England also looked like the Patriots of old on offense, with QB Tom Brady (1,083 pass yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) often lining up TE Tim Wright (9 rec, 120 yards, 1 TD) in two-tight-end packages with TE Rob Gronkowski (19 rec, 247 yards, 4 TD). Wright delivered in the game with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, while Gronkowski was even better with six catches for 100 yards and a score. The Patriots also rushed for 220 yards on 4.8 YPC against a Bengals run defense that had allowed only 112.3 rushing YPG in their first three contests. Brady has been dominant against the Bills in his career, and the momentum from last game should carry over. They’ll need to be equally as creative with their offensive weapons as they were a week ago.

The Bills surprised a lot of people with a road victory over the Lions last week, as QB Kyle Orton was excellent down the stretch, finishing with 308 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Orton led a clutch 9-play, 74-yard drive to start the fourth quarter. It ended with a 2-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion to tie the game at 14. Orton is much better in the pocket than EJ Manuel is, and worked well with top WR Sammy Watkins (24 rec, 284 yards, 2 TD) who caught seven passes for 87 yards in the win. RB Fred Jackson (201 rush yards, 0 TD), who sprained his ankle in this game, rushed 10 times for 49 yards and caught seven passes for 58 yards. Jackson and Orton had good timing with one another, and if Jackson can play on Sunday, the Bills will give him plenty of touches against a Patriots defense that is much worse against the rush than it is the pass this season. Defensively, the Bills will make the Patriots beat them through the air. They’re allowing just 71.0 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and will likely dominate what is a pretty bad offensive line for New England.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks favored big over surging Cowboys on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -8.5, Total: 47

The red-hot Cowboys look to make a big statement with a road win over the Seahawks on Sunday.

Dallas has been one of the surprises of the season, recording its fourth straight victory last week (3-1 ATS) with a 20-17 overtime win over the Texans. The Seahawks have won two straight games after its lone loss of the season, and will now be faced with the difficult task of stopping current NFL rushing leader RB DeMarco Murray (670 rushing yards). The Dallas defense, on the other hand, faces its biggest test of the season against a Seahawks offense that moves the ball efficiently and rarely turns it over. The last time these teams met was in 2012, when Seattle won 27-7 at home as three-point ‘dogs. The Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home versus Dallas since 2001. Seattle is also 11-1 ATS versus teams that average 7+ passing yards per attempt over the past three years and 12-4 ATS against conference opponents in the past two years. The Cowboys, however, are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards since 1992. Dallas could be without LBs Bruce Carter (quad) and Rolando McClain (groin), who are both questionable. Seattle is in pretty good shape, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, CB Tharold Simon (knee) is questionable and C Max Unger (foot) is probable for this matchup.

Can the Seahawks cover the hefty spread against a red-hot Cowboys team? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

Dallas is off to an excellent start and most of that is due to the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (670 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). Murray has now rushed for 100 or more yards in every single game this season, but will have a tougher time on Sunday as he faces one of the best defensive teams in football. But the Cowboys will reportedly start lessening Murray's workload, as he leads the NFL in both carries (130) and fumbles (four) this season. That means QB Tony Romo (1,260 pass yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) will get to throw the ball more and more. He started off the season rocky with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games, but since then he’s improved, throwing seven touchdowns and just two picks over the past three contests. He’ll need to make quick, high-percentage throws against a ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary. WR Dez Bryant (32 rec, 376 yards, 4 TD) has now caught a touchdown in all four consecutive wins. He’ll be a player to watch, as he’ll likely see some time against Seattle's shutdown CB Richard Sherman. The Cowboys defense is far from elite, but they’re much improved from last year when they allowed an NFL-worst 415 total YPG. Dallas is allowing 247.8 yards per game through the air (18th in NFL) and 122.0 on the ground (20th in NFL). They will need to key in on the run in order to stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle is now 4-1, and QB Russell Wilson (852 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) had one of his best games as a pro in Monday's 27-17 win over the Redskins. Wilson was 18-of-24 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed 11 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Wilson was unstoppable in that game, throwing all over the Redskins and shredding them with his feet if he couldn’t find any open receivers. He’ll now face a secondary that is prone to making mistakes, so he should be in for yet another big day. This offensive attack still relies on RB Marshawn Lynch (306 rush yards, 3 TD) though. Lynch is a workhorse and he’ll have every opportunity to run against Dallas. If he’s running effectively, it’s that much easier for Wilson to do his thing. The Seahawks defense now has to stop a powerful offense, but they should be up for the task. Seattle is allowing just 62.3 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL), so if there’s a team in the league that can stop DeMarco Murray then it would be them. They are, however, allowing 255.5 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL), and have forced only three turnovers all season, which is a far cry from the 39 takeaways they recorded last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants seek 4th straight win Sunday at Eagles
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 50.5

Two red-hot NFC East foes clash on Sunday night when the Eagles host the Giants.

After looking miserable throughout the entire preseason and the first two weeks of the regular season, New York has now won three straight games. Philadelphia improved to 4-1 last week with a 34-28 victory over the Rams. The Eagles have dominated this series recently, going 9-3 (SU and ATS) in the past dozen meetings, but the Giants have taken two of the last three, including a 15-7 victory in the most recent matchup that occurred last October in Philly. Eli Manning is just 9-12 SU (9-11-1 ATS) versus the Eagles in his career, with 38 TD and 22 INT. Their offense has looked excellent though, averaging 35.0 PPG and 395 total YPG during the three-game win streak, and they’re up against an Eagles defense that just allowed a 375-yard, 3-TD performance to Austin Davis. New York is an outstanding 38-17 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins since 1992. The Eagles, however, are 158-124 ATS against conference opponents in that time. The Giants will likely be without Rashad Jennings (knee) in this game, while LB Jon Beason (toe) is questionable. Philadelphia has some defensive injuries of concern with LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) and CB Brandon Boykin (hamstring) both questionable, but LB DeMeco Ryans (groin) has been upgraded to probable.

Which team will pick up the crucial win in this division clash? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

The Giants are playing excellent football and QB Eli Manning (1,174 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has completely erased a miserable start to the year with eight touchdowns and just one pick over the past three weeks. Manning is making smarter decisions with the football and has an excellent opportunity to put up big numbers with a matchup with this Philadelphia team. One player who will need to play well for the Giants in this matchup is RB Andre Williams (170 rush yards, 2 TD). Williams is starting in place of the injured Rashad Jennings, and will be relied upon to run the football more effectively than his paltry 3.1 yards per carry this year. WR Victor Cruz (21 rec, 321 yards, 1 TD) will look to rebound from a game in which he caught just three of his six targets for 22 yards. He’ll have plenty of room to work with against this secondary, and he has thrived in this matchup in his career with 533 receiving yards and 5 TD in six meetings. Defensively, the Giants are allowing 265.0 passing yards per game (25th in NFL) and 99.0 rushing yards per game (10th in NFL). This Philly passing attack can be lethal at times, so the Giants will need to be prepared. They can’t, however, forget about stopping LeSean McCoy.

After throwing just two interceptions in 13 games last season, Eagles QB Nick Foles (1,380 pass yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) has already more than doubled that number this year. The quarterback has looked erratic at times, but he does lead an offense that is averaging 31.2 PPG this season (2nd in NFL). Foles will need to take care of the football against the Giants, as they do have some corners that are capable of making him pay for mistakes. New York has forced 10 turnovers in the past three weeks, which includes eight interceptions. WR Jeremy Maclin (25 rec, 429 yards, 4 TD) has been Foles’ go-to guy and he should be in for a big game, as he’s been getting open at will in Chip Kelly’s offense. The Eagles, however, will need RB LeSean McCoy (273 rush yards, 1 TD) to snap out of his recent funk sooner rather than later. McCoy’s season high in rushing yards this season is 81. This is the same guy who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, when he rushed for over 100 yards seven times last season, including a 217-yard performance. In his career versus New York, McCoy has averaged 4.9 yards per carry and has gained 1,022 total yards in 10 meetings. Philly’s defense is allowing 274.2 passing yards per game (29th in NFL) and 132.0 rushing yards per game (24th in NFL). They will need to start emphasizing that side of the ball more, or they’ll have little to no success if they do end up making it to the postseason. On the positive side, the Eagles defense has at least one takeaway in all five games, including three versus the Rams last week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

49ers seek 3rd straight win Monday at Rams
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-2) at ST. LOUIS RAMS (1-3)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 44

The 49ers head visit the Rams on Monday night for a game that they can’t afford to lose.

San Francisco came away with a 22-17 home victory over Kansas City last week, and is now facing a St. Louis offense that looked good in a 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. The 49ers are allowing just 209.0 yards per game through the air (4th in NFL) and 73.8 YPG on the ground (5th in NFL), so it will be a tough matchup for Rams QB Austin Davis who is coming off of a huge 3-TD performance against Philly in Week 5. The 49ers are 9-2-1 SU in the past dozen meetings between these clubs, but the teams have split these games 6-6 ATS. However, San Francisco beat St. Louis by double-digits in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 58 to 24. Last year, the Niners were 6-0 ATS in road games after the first month of the season, and are also 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons. However, St. Louis is 6-1 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games in that span. The Rams could be without star RB Zac Stacy (calf), who was injured in the loss to the Eagles, but it appears both he and Niners TE Vernon Davis (back) will be able to suit up for this contest.

Will the 49ers extend their win streak to three games on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

Since a disastrous 3-INT performance in a 28-20 loss to the Bears in Week 2, QB Colin Kaepernick (1,113 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) has really stepped up his play. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown four touchdown passes and only one interception. He’s taking much better care of the football and has also run the ball very well. He’ll need to use his legs when plays break down against a solid Rams’ secondary. Last season, Kaepernick threw for 442 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT in the two wins over St. Louis. RB Frank Gore (365 rush yards, 1 TD) has been running wild the past two weeks with back-to-back games rushing for at least 100 yards and he’ll get a lot of touches against the Rams, as the 49ers will try to control the tempo in this one. In the past eight meetings in this series, Gore has rushed for 626 yards (4.1 YPC) and 7 TD, which includes 153 yards on 7.7 YPC when he visited St. Louis last year. One player who will really need to turn things around is WR Michael Crabtree (25 rec, 246 yards, 2 TD), who was excellent in Week 2 and Week 3, but caught just six passes for 59 yards over the past two weeks. Crabtree is Kaepernick’s go-to-guy in the passing game and will need to be a more reliable player going forward. This 49ers' defense has been relentless all season (10 takeaways) and should make life on Austin Davis extremely difficult.

St. Louis fell to 1-3 (SU and ATS) after last week’s shootout loss against the Eagles. The Rams were down 34-7 at one point in the game, but QB Austin Davis (1,129 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) would ultimately fall just short of rallying his team for a dramatic comeback win. Davis was 29-of-49 for 375 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He did, however, lost two fumbles. Davis will now be up against a much better defense, so taking care of the ball will be crucial for this entire offense that has nine turnovers in four games this year. WR Brian Quick (21 rec, 322 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a serious playmaker on the outside for St. Louis. He had five catches for 87 yards and 2 TD in the loss to the Eagles, and he should be able to use his size and speed to break open at least a few times against the 49ers. One player the Rams could really use is RB Zac Stacy (223 rush yards, 1 TD). Stacy is questionable for this game and if he doesn’t play, his powerful running would really be missed. Last year versus San Francisco, he carried the ball 19 times for 71 yards (3.8 YPC). Despite allowing more than 30 points in three different games this season, the Rams defense has been strong against the pass, They’re allowing an NFL-best 192.3 yards per game through the air, but also give up 152.5 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL). They could have a lot of trouble containing Kaepernick and Gore on the ground.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 10/12 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (40 - 77 / $159.60): TOSHIE SPECIAL (9th)

Spot Play: VICKY VALOR (4th)


Race 1

(2) HAKUNA MATATA is a lightly raced pacer that has flashed some ability in an inexperienced field. (5) HOT ROD PETE has shown a good burst of speed in his last few starts. (4) GOT YOURSELF A GUN makes his second start for ownership that can’t be overlooked.

Race 2

(6) ROCK N MAR is a risky play because of his breaking issues, however the trotter should offer a nice price and is capable if he minds his manners. (9) CHOCOUTURE faces older coming off a layoff but probably has the most upside in the field. (4) PALE ALE gelding is 0-for his career but has started to pick it up in recently.

Race 3

(6) FOX VALLEY REBEL is a nice-looking pacer that could have more to offer off an easy victory. (7) SUPER SON OF SANDY loves to race and always tries his best. (4) ITS A BIG SECRET was impressive last out circling the field with a big last quarter.

Race 4

In a wide open race full of inconsistent trotters, (7) VICKY VALOR should offer a big price and has stayed flat in three straight outings. (4) ARCS CONQUEST also has been able to stay trotting, which is more than most in the field can say. (5) BOOYAH JACK could be sitting on an improved effort.

Race 5

(1) BIG BRAD faces a much easier bunch and picks up the top driver. (5) TINK AND TIGER has been sneaky sharp in his last few; threat. (4) BIG DADDY WOO WOO just raced evenly last out but had been pacing some big miles prior.

Race 6

(9) STONEBRIDGE ULTIMO is on the improve but needs a good drive from an inexperienced pilot. (3) K R B FOUR is 0-for the year but was the driver’s choice, which has to be taken into consideration. (4) PONDA PREMIER made a break last out but will be ready for a good effort if he stays trotting.

Race 7

In a wide open race, (8) NO RESPECT has been facing tougher and is capable of a big mile. (5) JUST BY DESIGN raced well last out from a tough post; threat. (7) STATE STREET LIZ was sharp last out off a perfect trip and is versatile.

Race 8

(8) VICTORIA IVY gets sent out for a trainer that has popped off some big miles in recently. (9) MARZY BEARZY is very inconsistent from week to week but is a player in this group despite being 0-for the year. (6) OUR MISS SPECIAL needed her last start and could be ready for a bettor effort.

Race 9

(6) TOSHIE SPECIAL is just back in racing shape, will offer a nice price, and should be closer turning for home. (7) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE owns all the back class and has made the most money in the field by far, but has just been racing evenly. (2) THE BRUZILIAN BLUR was the top driver’s choice of three but races inconsistently from week to week.

Race 10

(1) REX PASSUS was dominant at this level not long ago and will be tough to beat with a smooth trip. (7) ACES AGAIN comes off a nice victory and owns a good closing kick. (6) BLUE RIVER owns some ability and drops down in for a tag.

 

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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (2nd) Distant Thoughts, 3-1
(5th) Fictionalcharacter, 6-1


Belterra Park (1st) Lockandload, 4-1
(8th) Coach Hamilton, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (1st) Buckingham Gate, 3-1
(4th) Mini Brew, 10-1


Hastings (2nd) Proxyman, 4-1
(6th) The Gov, 6-1


Keeneland (3rd) Baby Fresh, 5-1
(9th) Jinx the Cat, 6-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Class of Twentyten, 5-1
(8th) Hachi, 6-1


Parx Racing (5th) Malibu Deputy, 5-1
(6th) Playa Medina, 4-1


Santa Anita (2nd) Armensky, 7-2
(7th) One Gun, 7-2


Thistledown (5th) Wish Tonite, 6-1
(8th) Dynafox, 4-1


Woodbine (2nd) Lovely Sunrise, 6-1
(10th) Squeeze the King, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Guthrie gets Game 3 start for Royals
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost named right-hander Jeremy Guthrie as the starter for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series on Monday against the visiting Baltimore Orioles.

Yost also said that left-hander Jason Vargas will "probably" start Game 4.

Guthrie has not pitched in these playoffs. In his last start in September, he threw seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox. He went 13-11 with a 4.13 ERA in the regular season.

"He threw really good during a (simulated) game, and I mean command and action on his pitches," Yost said, according to MASNSports.com. "He had a tremendous side (session Friday). He's ready to go."

It will be Guthrie's first career postseason game.

Danny Duffy, who had a 2.53 ERA during the regular season, will likely stay in the bullpen.

Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen will probably get the start in Game 3 for Baltimore. However, he was available out of the bullpen for Game 2 if needed.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NLCS notebook: Peavy in comfortable surroundings
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

ST. LOUIS -- Reunited, and it feels so good.

It's not only a song lyric, but it's how Jake Peavy feels about pitching for Bruce Bochy again. The fiery Peavy broke into the majors in San Diego under Bochy's tutelage, and after spending time with the Chicago White Sox and Boston, Peavy is back with his old manager again in San Francisco.

Now a veteran right hander, Peavy has turned his season around after starting 1-9 with a 4.72 earned run average with the Red Sox. Since being traded just before the July 31 deadline, Peavy has gone 6-4, 2.17 for the Giants, and defeated Washington with 5 2/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the National League Division Series.

As a result, Peavy will get the ball for Game 2 of the National League Championship Series Sunday night.

"No ballplayer in their right mind wants to leave that place," Peavy said of Boston. "Then you get out to your new home. It becomes reality and you go, 'Gosh, man, I'm playing for (Bochy) again. You're seeing (third-base coach) Tim Flannery.

"I'm sitting in Boch's office every now and then, just getting the feel for things and giving him the insight that I have on the guys in the room. It's a special relationship that we have and I couldn't ask for anything more to be honest with you."

Bochy shelved Peavy's Red Sox stats, focusing instead on how he was throwing the ball and the intangibles that he knew Peavy would bring to the team.

"He's helped guys elevate their games," Bochy said. "He's turned up their intensity. Jake really has emerged as a terrific leader."

--Hitting coach John Mabry has taken his share of heat and then some for St. Louis' drop off at the plate this season. The Cardinals averaged a run less per game than it did in 2013 and hit fewer homers than any team in the majors except Kansas City.

Manager Mike Matheny has steadfastly defended Mabry all year, going so far as to ridicule media and fans calling for Mabry's dismissal. The Cardinals' seven homers in a 3-1 NLDS win over the Los Angeles Dodgers only strengthened Matheny's feelings.

"He seemed to take a lot of heat as we were pushing through the season and some of those results weren't there, which is really ridiculous," Matheny said. "Fortunately, he stayed with what he knew was right.

"In the end, what's this game about? It's about scoring more runs than the other club, and we figured out a way to do that more often than not."

NOTES: This is the fourth NLCS meeting between the Giants and Cardinals. St. Louis won a seven-game series in 1987, while San Francisco prevailed 4-1 in 2002 and rallied from 3-1 down for a 4-3 win in 2012. ... Former Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog, who skippered the 1987 squad, threw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 1. ... San Francisco's 88 regular season wins marked the first time in the modern era that it made the postseason with less than 90 wins.

 

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#1 Sports

Early Sunday's free selection: Cincinnati Bengals - 6 1/2

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NY Jets +9½ Over Denver

 

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Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Green Bay Packers/Miami Dolphins under 49

 

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Atlantic Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Chargers/Raiders under 43

 

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Computer Sports

Free Selection Sunday: Vikings +1.5

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: San Diego/Oakland Game UNDER The Total Of 43½ Points

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Cincinnati Bengals -6

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Tennessee Titans -4

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Sunday: San Diego Chargers - 7