NFL
Week 6
Colts (3-2) @ Texans (3-2)—Indy is 20-4 in series, winning last three by 12-3-22 points, but they’ve lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10+ points; home side won seven of last eight series games. Colts won last three games after 0-2 start; they’re 5-1-1 as road favorites under Pagano, 9-6-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Texans are 2-0 at home, allowing three TDs on 24 drives; they’re 4-6 as home dogs since ’09, 3-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less. Colts allowed 30+ points in both losses, 17 or less in all three wins; Houston scored exactly 17 points in three of five games. Three of last four Indy games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.
Broncos (3-1) @ Jets (1-4)—Gang Green lost last four games, scoring three TDs on last 33 drives; they benched QB Smith in second half last week, will go back to him here, vs Denver team that lost its only road game, in OT at Seattle. Broncos are 11-5 as road favorites under Fox, 20-12-1 after a win. Jets are 6-3 as home underdog under Ryan, 0-1 this year; they’ve lost three of last four games with Denver- Broncos won three of last four visits here. Jets lost last two home games, to Bears/Lions; fans will turn on them if they start of badly- they were outscored 38-3 in first half of last two games. AFC East teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-division games, 1-6 at home; AFC West teams are 11-4 vs spread outside their division.
Steelers (3-2) @ Browns (2-2)— First rematch of season; Steelers (-6.5) nipped Cleveland 30-27 in opener, kicking FG at end after blowing 27-3 halftime lead. Pitt outgained Browns 490-389 in games; they’re 26-3 in series, winning last four, three by 13+ points. Steelers are 3-1 in last four visits here, winning by 32-4-16 points. Decisive points in all four Cleveland games were scored in last 1:09 of game; they’ve rallied to tie or take lead from 27-3/28-3 deficits, so they believe in QB Hoyer, who averaged 10.9/7.5 ypa in last two games. Since ’08, Cleveland is 5-12-2 as home favorite; they’re favored here for first time this year. Browns split pair of 2-point home decisions, beating Saints, losing to Ravens; all four of their games went over total.
Jaguars (0-5) @ Titans (1-4)—These teams split season series each of last five years, with five of last six series meetings decided by 6 or less points. Jags split last four visits to Music City, but are 0-5 vs spread this season, losing by average of score of 36-14- only one of their five losses was by less than 17 points. Titans lost last four games, allowing 32.3 ppg; they’re first home team ever to lose after leading by 25+ points. Ever. Since ’10, Tennessee is 8-13-1 as home favorite, 0-2 this year; Locker got hurt last week, not sure which of three Titan QBs starts here. None are that attractive an option. Jags are -8 in turnovers the last four games, with only one takeaway; they’re 11-15 in last 26 games as a road dog, 0-3 this year.
Bears (2-3) @ Falcons (2-3)—Devin Hester’s old team visits Georgia Dome after turning ball over on last three drives in ugly 31-24 loss at Carolina last week, Bears’ first loss in three road games; they’ve allowed 20-19 points in their wins, 23+ in three losses. Chicago is 6-11-1 (2-1 this year) in last 18 games as a road dog. Home side won last four series games with Chicago losing last two visits here, 22-20/21-14. Home side also won all five Falcon games this year; Atlanta won 37-34/56-14 at home, are 22-15-1 as home favorite under Smith, 24-11-1 after a loss. NFC South road teams are 1-6 vs spread in non-division games. Over is 3-1-1 in Falcon games this year, 3-0 in last three Chicago tilts.
Packers (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-2)—Miami is off bye after hammering Raiders in London; they upset Pack 23-20 at Lambeau after its bye in last meeting (2010), Dolphins’ 10th win in last 13 series games. Pack’s 34-24 win here in last visit (’06) is their only win in seven visits here, other than Super Bowl II vs Raiders. Miami scored 10+ points in all four halves in its two wins; they trailed 9-0/14-3 at half of two losses. Green Bay was held to 7-16 points in its two losses, both on artificial surface; they’ve had three extra days to prep after Thursday game, are 16-13 in last 29 games as road favorite. AFC East home teams are 1-6 vs spread in non-division games; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 1-3. Three of four games for both sides went over total.
Lions (3-2) @ Minnesota (2-3)—Vikings started three different QBs in first five games, never a good thing; best chance here is if rookie Bridge water plays. Minnesota is 19-5 in last 24 series games, 3-1 in last four; Lions are 1-15 in last 16 visits here, losing last two by 1-10 points- three of their last four losses here were by 10+ points. Health of Calvin Johnson a key for Lions, who folded at home vs Bills last week with Megatron sidelined, losing 17-14 after leading 14-0. Lions held last three opponents to 7-17-17 points, but they’re 0-3 when they don’t get 2+ takeaways- they’re 4-10-1 in divisional road games since ’09. Last four Detroit games stayed under the total. Vikings are 7-2 in last nine games as home underdog, 1-1 this season.
Panthers (3-2) @ Bengals (3-1)—Curious to see how Cincy bounces back from first loss; they’re 6-1 vs spread in game following last seven losses and covered nine in row as home favorites, winning 24-10/33-7 in two home games this year. Bengals are also 10-2-1 in last 13 games vs NFC teams. Carolina has 10 takeaways (+7) in its three wins, none (-3) in two losses; they’ve covered eight of last ten games as road dog (1-1 this year), are 14-11 off win under Rivera. Panthers allowed 37-38 points in two losses, average of 15 ppg in their wins. AFC North home teams are 4-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South road teams are 1-6. Three of four Bengal games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went under.
Patriots (3-2) @ Bills (3-2)—Pats are 25-2 in last 27 series games, winning last five in row, three by 14+ points; they’ve won nine of last ten visits here, with seven wins by 13+, but NE is just 1-7 vs spread in last eight games as road favorite, losing two of three SU on road this year. Patriots are 5-8 vs spread in game following their last 13 wins. Bills have been plus in turnovers in four games, even in 5th, turning ball over only four times- they scored 10-17-17 points in last three games, but won at Detroit in Orton’s first start. Bills are 1-1 at home this year, 6-1 as home dogs under Marrone- they’re 3-0 this year allowing 20 or less points, with losses by 12-6 points. All five Buffalo games this season stayed under the total.
Ravens (3-2) @ Buccaneers (1-4)—Under Harbaugh, Ravens are 17-15-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 1-1 on road this year, winning late at Cleveland, losing 20-13 at Indy last week. Baltimore is 5-8 in last 13 games as road favorites. Bucs led by 11 in 4th quarter at Superdome last week, couldn’t finish off Saint squad that ran 86 plays for 511 yards; Tampa Bay lost first two home games by total of 8 points; they’re 5-15-1 in last 21 games as home dog, 0-0 under Smith. Ravens have only five TDs on last 11 red zone drives (1 of 3 last week). NFC South teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-division games, 3-2 at home; AFC North teams are 7-3 vs spread out of division, 3-2 on foreign soil. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total.
Chargers (4-1) @ Raiders (0-4)—Tony Sparano takes over as interim coach in Oakland; they’re 0-4, losing only home game 30-14 (+3) to Houston. Raiders lost last 10 games overall; last time they covered was last Thanksgiving- they’ve lost four of last five games with San Diego, with three of four losses by 8+ points. Chargers won eight of last ten visits here, with six of last seven wins by 8+. Bolts won last four games, all by 9+ points, but three of those four were at home. SD’s only road win was 22-10 (+2.5) at Buffalo. Since ’10, Chargers are 5-9 as road favorites; they’ve covered seven of last nine AFC West road games. Raiders were 3-8 as home underdogs under Allen; over last decade, Oakland is 5-14 as a divisional home underdog.
Cowboys (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-1)—Seattle allowed total of 68 rushing yards (37 tries) in last two games; curious to see if Dallas can run on them. Short week for Seattle after Monday night game, long flight home; they’re 14-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year. Much-improved Cowboys are 2-0 on road, beating Titans/Rams- they were down 21-0 in win at St Louis. Dallas is 14-8 as home dogs under Garrett, 1-0 this year. Overall, dogs are 21-12-1 vs spread in Dallas road games in Garrett era. Home side won last six series games; Cowboys lost last three visits here by 3-1-20 points, with last win here in ’04. NFC West teams are 7-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as home favorites. NFC East teams are 8-7, 2-2 as road dogs.
Redskins (1-4) @ Cardinals (3-1)—Not sure who plays QB for Redbirds; 3rd-stringer Thomas isn’t NFL-ready, no way I’m laying points if he plays. Washington has long trip west after Monday night loss, when refs tried to help them but couldn’t help enough; they’ve won last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they’re 13-8 in last 21 series games, with all eight losses by 4 or less points. Redskins lost last three games; they’ve scored 17 or less points in three of four losses; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as road underdogs. Arizona lost Campbell last week; they’ve got some injuries on defense; Cardinals are 6-3-1 vs spread at home under Arians, 3-2-1 as home favorite- they’re 2-0 SU at home this year, winning by 1-9 points.
Giants (3-2) @ Eagles (4-1)—Teams split series last three years, after Iggles had won six in row prior to that; Philly won first meeting four of last five years, but Giants are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Giants scored 30-45-30 points in winning last three games after 0-2 start; since 2011, they’re 12-7 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 35-14 at Detroit, winning big at Washington. Eagles allowed 27+ points in each of last four games; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorites) winning by 17-3-6 points, making them 5-6 as home faves under Kelly, 14-21 as home favorites since ’10. Philly allowed 29.3 ppg, 461.3 ypg last three weeks. Giants have been moving chains, converting 20 of last 31 on third down.
49ers (3-2) @ Rams (1-3)—Home team is honoring ’99 Super Bowl champs tonite, current Rams are 4-13-1 in last 18 games vs their rival, losing 35-11/23-13 in two meetings LY, when backup QB Clemens was playing. This year’s backup QB Davis has proven to be more capable starter; Rams scored seven TDs on 22 drives in losing last two games, when they led Dallas 21-0 and finished on 21-0 run at Philly, but in between those two runs they were outscored 68-17—young Rams make too many mistakes. Thru four games, St Louis was penalized 305 yards, their opponents 105. 49ers split last four visits here; they’ve scored only two TDs, six FGs on last eight red zone drives, winning last two games by five points each, after losses to Bears, Cards.
