Sunday 1/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Steelers' Brown ruled out for Sunday
By The Sports Xchange

Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams were ruled out for Sunday's divisional-round playoff game at the Denver Broncos.
The Steelers listed quarterback Ben Roethlisberger as questionable on Friday's injury report with a sprained AC joint and ligament damage in his right shoulder. Roethlisberger threw the ball briefly on Friday.
Roethlisberger and Brown (concussion) were injured in the brutally physical 18-16 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last Saturday night, and both came on hits from linebacker Vontaze Burfict.
With Brown out and Williams still sidelined with an injured foot, it will be the first time in NFL playoff history that a team takes the field without its regular-season leader in receiving and rushing.

--Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has made it clear he will not miss Sunday's divisional-round playoff game against the Carolina Panthers Lynch, who has missed the past eight games with an abdominal injury, is listed as probable on Friday's injury report.

--Dirk Koetter was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Koetter made a significant hire on Friday when he announced that former Atlanta Falcons head coach will be the Buccaneers' defensive coordinator.

--Joe Philbin, who was fired as the Miami Dolphins head coach on Oct. 5, was hired as the Indianapolis Colts offensive line coach, the Colts announced.

--Jim Caldwell will return as head coach of the Detroit Lions.
New general manager Bob Quinn spent his first week on the job considering Caldwell, who remained during Lions owner Martha Ford's in-season housecleaning that claimed president Tom Lewand, general manager Martin Mayhew and three assistant coaches. The Lions were 7-9 this season.

--Philadelphia Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie has apparently avoided millions in buyout obligation to Chip Kelly, who was hired Thursday as the new head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.
Kelly, who was fired in his third season as coach of the Eagles with one week to go in the regular season, will receive a four-year deal worth $24 million from the 49ers, a league source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The Eagles owe Kelly about $13 million over the next two years, but that total will be offset by the deal Kelly signs with San Francisco, a league source told ESPN's Darren Rovell.

--The Cincinnati Bengals promoted Ken Zampese to offensive coordinator and hired Jim Haslett as linebackers coach, the team announced.

--New Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson has retained special teams coordinator Chris Tabor, the team announced.

--Red McCombs, former owner of the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Vikings, is lobbying to move the Oakland Raiders to San Antonio.
The Texas billionaire, speaking to radio station KZDC-AM 1250 on Tuesday, said he is attempting to convince Raiders owner Mark Davis to move to the Alamo City.

--ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen is taking a break from the network as he begins treatments for throat cancer.

--The Minnesota Vikings signed cornerback Melvin White to a reserve/future contract.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

After road warriors win NFL Wild Card, should bettors rethink home-field advantage?
By HARVARD SPORTS ANALYSIS COLLECTIVE

Last weekend, three of the four road teams in the NFL Wild Card Round were favored to win the game (Washington was the lone home team predicted to win, and was only a 2-point favorite).

Not only did all four road teams end up winning, but also half of them managed to cover the spread, continuing a trend that had developed during the season when 54 percent of the away teams covered.

Going into this weekend, however, all four home teams are sizeable favorites to win. Seems like as good a time as any to look into the effect of home-field advantage in the NFL, and how whether there are any new insights to be found.

One simple measure of home-field advantage can just be the percentage of home teams that win the game straight up. This requires several assumptions, the main one being that the home teams and the away teams are, on average, of equal strength.

This assumption is satisfied for the regular season, mainly because every team plays eight games at home and the scheduling isn’t biased towards the better team playing at home (or vice versa).

Since the 1985 season, home teams in the NFL have won 57.9 percent of the games. Using this data, we can say home-field advantage in the NFL over that time period has increased a team’s chances of winning by about 8 percent. Has this advantage changed over time? Below is a graph of how often the home team has won in every season since 1985.

Two things jump out from this graph. First of all, in every season the home teams won more than half their games. This makes sense, as we would expect home-field advantage, even if not constant for every season, to always favor the home team.

Secondly, it appears that the variation in home-field advantage as decreased throughout time. In the 1980’s, the percentage of home teams that won was all over the place, while ever since 2006 it has remained fairly constant.

We have no idea why this occurring – maybe it is just random noise? It would be interesting to hear any theories people have. Note that this doesn’t mean that home-field advantage is getting smaller (although it does appear to be decreasing slightly) just that there is less variance year to year.

Although we’re discussing home-field advantage, we will not be trying to examine what causes home-field advantage to exist, whether it be the refs, less travel time, or a friendly crowd. It is incredibly hard to try to see which of those factors causes it, and has been the subject of many other papers.

Of course, as bettors, knowing that home-field advantage exists isn’t that helpful. Rather, the question we are interested in is whether or not the betting markets properly account for home-field advantage.

We can look at home teams’ record against the spread to test for that. Since the 1985 season, home teams have covered the spread 49.5 percent of the time, nearly exactly half. There doesn’t appear to be any obvious situation there that we can take advantage of. I have plotted the above plot again, this time adding in points for how home teams did against the spread each year.

Takeaways from this plot are that the home team’s record against the spread is always around 50 percent, as we would expect to be, and that it roughly follows the same trend as win/loss results. This makes sense, as when home teams win more at home than expected we would also expect them to win more against the spread.

Finally, because I know thinking in terms of percentages can be strange. I have plotted the average amount that home teams were projected to win by. Note that this is how oddsmakers thought they would do – this the Vegas implied home-field advantage in terms of points throughout the years.

At around 2.6 points, this is exactly what we would expect. Note that sportsbooks have also been very accurate – over the same period of time, home teams have won by, on average, 2.7 points per game. Not much difference there.

Now let us look at the playoffs. Over the same span, home teams have won 67.4 percent of the time. Now, from this we can’t conclude that home-field advantage in the playoffs is worth 17.4 percent. This is because our assumption that the home and away teams are, on average, of equal strength does not hold.

In the playoffs, the higher seed, and typically the better team, gets to play at home. Therefore, we have better teams playing at home which bolsters the effect of home-field advantage.

Meanwhile, against the spread, home teams covers 52.7 percent of the time. Although this is slightly above the expected 50 percent, it’s not close to being statistically significant.

The 95 percent confidence interval for the percentage of home teams that cover the spread in the playoffs is 46.7-58.7 percent. Moreover, home team success ATS in the regular season does not carry over to the postseason – the correlation between home team winning percentage ATS in the regular season and postseason was only 0.08, suggesting barely any positive relationship.

So, just because home teams only covered around 46 percent of the time in the regular season, don’t expect the same trend to continue in the postseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Divisional Playoff Trends
By Marc Lawrence

Since the inception of the 12-team NFL playoff format in 1990, the top two seeds in each conference have enjoyed the luxury of an added week of rest while hosting Wild Card winners in the Divisional Round from the previous week.

Let’s see what history tells us about this round in the playoffs.

Resting On Their Laurels

Well-rested hosts in the NFL playoffs have pretty much taken full advantage of the situation, going 73-27 SU (straight up) collectively. However, they are only 50-48-2 ATS (against the spread). What started early on as a huge point-spread edge for home teams in previous years has diminished drastically over the past eight postseasons.

Consider: from 1990 through the 2005 playoffs, these well-rested hosts compiled a hefty 51-13 SU and 37-25-2 ATS mark. Since 2006, they have crashed back to earth in a dramatic way, going a dismal 22-14 SU and 13-23 ATS.

Hence, more losses (14) have occurred over the last nine postseasons as did during the first 16. It’s mind-boggling, to say the least.

While it appears that rest has turned to rust for these top two conference seeds, the main culprit appears to be the linesmaker, who has effectively adjusted the spreads on these home teams to the point where they’ve become money-burners.

Defense, Defense, Defense

It’s important to remember that 40 of the last 49 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. And it would have been 41 had Pete Carroll ran the damn ball. That’s not good news for the Green Bay Packers or the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Remember, it’s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs. It’s the hottest... and those sporting a rock-solid defense.

Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

Under the current playoff format, which was adapted in the 1990 season, each team is seeded from 1-6 based on their regular season performance.

-- No. 1 seeds in the NFC are 21-4 SU (.840) and 15-10 ATS (.600) in the Divisional Playoffs.

-- No. 1 seeds in the AFC are 15-10 SU (.600) and 10-15 ATS (.400) in this round.

-- No. 1 seeds off a SU loss (read; New England Patriots) are 15-4 SU and 12-7 ATS, while these same top seeds off a SU win are 21-10 SU and 12-19 ATS.

No. 1 Seeds Divisonal Round (1990-2014)

Year AFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result NFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result

1990 Buffalo Beat Miami 44-34 San Francisco Beat Washington 28-10
1991 Buffalo Beat Kansas City 37-14 Washington Beat Atlanta 24-7
1992 Pittsburgh Lost to Buffalo 24-3 San Francisco Beat Washington 20-13
1993 Buffalo Beat Oakland 29-23 Dallas Beat Green Bay 27-17
1994 Pittsburgh Beat Cleveland 29-9 San Francisco Beat Chicago 44-15
1995 Kansas City Lost to Indinapolis 10-7 Dallas Beat Philadelphia 30-11
1996 Denver Lost to Jacksonville 30-27 Green Bay Beat San Francisco 35-14
1997 Kansas City Lost to Denver 14-10 San Francisco Beat Minnesota 38-22
1998 Denver Beat Miami 38-3 Minnesota Beat Arizona 41-21
1999 Jacksonville Beat Miami 62-7 St. Louis Beat Minnesota 49-37
2000 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 24-10 N.Y. Giants Beat Philadelphia 20-10
2001 Pittsburgh Beat Baltimore 27-10 St. Louis Beat Green Bay 45-17
2002 Oakland Beat N.Y. Jets 30-10 Philadelphia Beat Atlanta 20-6
2003 New England Beat Tenneessee 17-14 Philadelphia Beat Green Bay 20-17 (OT)
2004 Pittsburgh Beat N.Y. Jets 20-17 (OT) Philadelphia Beat Minnesota 27-14
2005 Indianapolis Lost to Pittsburgh 21-18 Seattle Beat Washington 20-10
2006 San Diego Lost to New England 24-21 Chicago Beat Seattle 27-24 (OT)
2007 New England Beat Jacksonville 31-20 Dallas Lost to N.Y. Giants 21-17
2008 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 13-10 N.Y. Giants Lost to Philadelphia 23-11
2009 Indianapolis Beat Baltimore 20-3 New Orleans Beat Arizona 45-14
2010 New England Lost to N.Y. Jets 28-21 Atlanta Lost to Green Bay 48-21
2011 New England Beat Denver 45-10 Green Bay Lost to N.Y. Giants 37-20
2012 Denver Lost to Baltimore 35-38 Atlanta Beat Seattle 30-28
2013 Denver Beat San Diego 24-17 Seattle Beat New Orleans 23-15
2014 New England Beat Baltimore 35-31 Seattle Beat Seattle 31-17
2015 Denver - Carolina -


However, before knee-jerking and backing the good-news teams on the blind, one would be well served knowing that since the 2006 playoffs all No. 1 seeds are 10-8 SU and 4-14 ATS in divisional round games – thus reinforcing the recent demise of divisional round home teams as outlined above.

And speaking of No. 1 seeds, when the Seattle Seahawks went on to capture Super Bowl XLVIII, it marked the first time since 1999 that a top seed from the NFC had carried home the hardware.

Highway Blues

With all four road teams winning for the first time in the Wild Card Round last week, this record-setting foursome enter the Divisional Round knowing just 14 of the previous 44 visiting teams have managed to win again on the road, this time versus rested opposition, and advance to the Championship Round since 1990.

However, these well-traveled troops have actually rung the cash register if they were Wild Card Round road favorites, going 8-1 ATS the following game. Despite being an injured mass, the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks will look to continue the trend this weekend.

Stat Of The Week

Playoff teams in the Divisional Round, playing with same season loss revenge, are 1-7 both SU and ATS when coming off a Wild Card Round victory in which they scored 34 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seahawks or Panthers? Steelers or Broncos? Bloggers debate who will cover NFL Divisional Sunday

The NFL Divisional Rounds conclude with a pair of games this Sunday. The Seattle Seahawks visit the Carolina in the early game and the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Denver Broncos in the late game.

If you aren’t sure which side to bet in Sunday’s postseason matchups, thankfully we’ve enlisted the help of expert NFL bloggers to debate why their favorite team covers the spread in the Divisional Round.

Mark Lathrop of Seattle blog Field Gulls stands toe-to-toe with Bill Voth of Carolina blog Black and Blue Review, and Jeff Hartman of Pittsburgh blog Behind the Steel Curtain trades blows with Kaptain Kirk of Denver blog Broncos Planet.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 44)

WHY THE SEAHAWKS WILL COVER

Mark Lathrop is a contributor for the Field Gulls blog and sportsbookreview.com. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls and @mlathrop3.

Seattle has vastly improved since the last meeting in Week 6

Shortly after that loss, Pete Carroll brought back veteran Patrick Lewis to start at center. Seattle averaged just under 21 points before the bye week and 32 points per game afterwards. This lines up with the shifts on the offensive line, and shows what can happen when you give a quarterback like Wilson an extra beat in the pocket. On defense, with Jeremy Lane and Marcus Burley bringing improved play to the cornerback position, the safeties didn't have to shade as much to compensate for lack of skill on the outside is one of the reasons that tight ends gave the Seahawks trouble in the beginning of the year. Greg Olsen put together a 7-11, 131-yard line in Week 6 and he won’t be able to repeat it.

Seattle keeps it close, even if they lose

Seattle has not experienced a loss by more than 10 points in the better part of four years, and I believe that Russell Wilson has never lost by more than ten points in his career. A historic defense on your side will help with that. I’d also say that the Seahawks offense is more potent in a desperation situation, when Wilson is forced to improvise and his mobility comes into play. This leads to the occasional back door cover even if they lose the game. I say occasional as the Seahawks have been favored in most games lately. Then consider the fact that Seattle has held a lead in every single game this season. Of course that includes all of the games on the road, which is where Sunday’s game will take place, and includes road matchups at Cincinnati and Green Bay. Seattle may lose, but it will be a close game if they do.

Russell Wilson loves to prove the doubters wrong

Since Russell Wilson took over as the starter in 2012, all he has done is win more games in a four-year period than any other starter in NFL history. He finished 2015 with the highest passer rating in the league and was second in completion percentage at 68.1 percent. Wilson had the best season of any Seahawks QB in franchise history by yards and touchdowns. Wilson and Seattle also cherish the role of the underdog. As the starter for the Seahawks, Russell Wilson is 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog and 8-7 SU. Russell also owns a 4-1 SU record against the Carolina Panthers and has never lost a game at Carolina. If you get points with Seattle, in any situation, you take them.


WHY THE PANTHERS WILL COVER

Bill Voth is the founder of Black & Blue Review. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @BlackBlueReview.

Cam Newton

The soon-to-be-crowned MVP used to struggle late against the Seahawks. That changed in October. Newton improved his 0-4 record against Seattle with two 80-yard fourth-quarter drives. That win proved the Seahawks are no longer a nemesis for Newton or the Panthers.

Jonathan Stewart

The Seahawks haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since November of 2014, so it's unlikely Stewart will have a huge game. But he should be plenty effective after four full weeks of rest. The Panthers held him out once he suffered a foot sprain in Week 14 and Stewart on fresh legs is a big advantage.

Luke Kuechly

As he proved late against Minnesota, Russell Wilson is a magician. But the Panthers have a guy who can take away some of Wilson's powers. Carolina won't use a spy on him, they'll just trust that Kuechly can react fast enough to minimize Wilson's gains on the ground.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

WHY THE STEELERS WILL COVER

Jeff Hartman is the editor of Behind the Steel Curtain. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @btsteelcurtain.

Big Ben's injury will require them to stay balanced on offense

If the Steelers want to win they have to make things easier on their injured quarterback, and a running game is the best medicine. The Broncos will likely crowd the box to try and stop the Steelers' running attack and force an injured Roethlisberger to try and beat them with a bum shoulder. Keep the Broncos defense honest by getting the running game going early.

Big Ben returns in a big game

The Pittsburgh Steelers will need Roethlisberger on the field, and he will deliver in a big way. His injured shoulder will simply add to the lore of his legend as he slings the ball around in the altitude to help the Steelers move to the AFC Championship game. The offensive line will have to protect him well, and this is ridiculously important as you don't want Roethlisberger taking another shot to his shoulder which could knock him out of the game, or even the playoffs. If they can do that, look for Big Game Big Ben to arrive in Denver.

Peyton Manning isn't Peyton Manning anymore

The Steelers defense will try to get Manning off his spot, and force the 40-year-old quarterback to move before throwing the football. The Steelers were a Top 5 team in sacks in the regular season, and if Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward can get pressure from in interior and push Manning of his launching point, the team will have opportunities to take the ball away. Winning the turnover battle will likely win you the game in the postseason.


WHY THE BRONCOS WILL COVER

Kaptain Kirk writes for Bronco Planet. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @broncoplanet and @Kaptain_Kirk62.

Injury factor

Ben Roethlisberger summed up the last meeting like this, "We got lucky last time. We were at home...they had injuries...[It’s] different on [the] road."
The Broncos were missing three starters (Manning, Ward and Stewart), three of their four top Safeties (Bolden) along with their punt returner. This time around, the Steelers are down three starters in Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams and if he’s not sandbagging, Big Ben. Roethlisberger is the toughest QB that I’ve seen, but he won’t be healthy enough for a healthy No. 1 defense in the confines of Sports Authority.

Pey-back

The Broncos are still hot about Cody Wallace’s late head shot on David Bruton in the previous game. Wallace was fined 40 percent of his game check, but wasn’t suspended for the defenseless hit. A victory for Denver would be revenge enough. Antonio Brown, who torched Chris Harris Jr. 16 times for 189 yards and two touchdowns won’t be playing on Sunday, though Harris Jr. would welcome a rematch between two of the best in the league. That alone would be worth the price of admission.

Happy ending

Unlike the last meeting in Week 15, this time it will be Peyton Manning starting, while Landry Jones should end up playing for the Steelers. This sets up another chapter towards a storybook ending to a stellar career for Manning. The tale nearly writes itself. The Steelers are one of three teams in the way of Peyton riding off into the sunset with a second Lombardi Trophy like his boss John Elway.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Sunday
By Chris David

Sunday’s Divisional Playoff action features a pair of rematches from this year’s regular season and three of the four teams have been familiar with the second round of the postseason recently.

Denver will be playing in its fifth straight Divisional Playoff game and the ‘over’ has gone 2-2 in the previous four while the Broncos are just 1-3 straight up.

Seattle beat Carolina 31-17 in this round last year and the ‘over’ (40) connected with a late fourth quarter surge. This will be the fourth straight Divisional Playoff game for the ‘Hawks and just the second time they’re on the road. The lone road game during this span watched them lose 30-28 at Atlanta in the 2012-13 playoffs.

Along with the aforementioned result, the Panthers played in the 2013-14 Divisional Playoff round and lost 23-10 at home to San Francisco.

Pittsburgh hasn’t advanced this far in the postseason since the 2010-11 season and it defeated Baltimore 31-24. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and is 3-1 in the last four Divisional Playoff appearances for Pittsburgh.

Some bettors and handicappers don’t buy into trends and you can understand why sometimes due to other key factors such as injuries, which is what Pittsburgh is dealing with on Sunday.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Seattle at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Most shops sent this total out at 44 and its held steady all week. There’s a chance of some rain in Charlotte but temperatures are expected in the mid-forties and not too much wind (5 to 10 mph).

Carolina enters this game with the best scoring offense in the league (31.2 points per game) and it’s been better lighting up the scoreboard at home (33 PPG) than anybody too. Seattle was held in check last week at Minnesota to 10 points, which was its lowest output of the season.

Was that weather related or is Minnesota’s defense that good? The temperatures played a factor and the Vikings unit is solid but Carolina’s unit was statistically greater in total yards (322 YPG) and just behind them in scoring (19.2 PPG).

Prior to being stifled in the Wild Card round, QB Russell Wilson and company closed the season by scoring 29-plus points in seven of their final eight games. On the road, the team averaged 36.6 PPG in three games during this offensive run.

While the ‘Hawks offense has been great, the defense has been better. They’ve held five of their last six opponents to 13 points or less and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1. Seattle’s defense (285 YPG) ranked second in total yards and first in points allowed (16.8).

In the first meeting between the pair in mid-October from CenturyLink Field, the Panthers dropped the Seahawks 27-23 and this game was on an ‘under’ pace as Seattle led 10-7 at halftime. Carolina had more yards (383-334) and first downs (25-14) in the game but the biggest difference for the Panthers was red zone touchdowns (3-1). Make a note that Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham (8 receptions, 140 yards) had his best game of the season in the loss and he’s done for the season due to an injury.

Will the ‘Hawks be able to convert in the second go ‘round on the road? Their last three trips to Carolina resulted in wins and ‘under’ tickets with the winning touchdown being scored in the fourth quarter of all three victories.

2014 – Seattle 13 Carolina 9 UNDER 44.5
2013 – Seattle 12 Carolina 7 UNDER 44.5
2012 – Seattle 16 Carolina 12 UNDER 42.5

There is no doubt that Carolina is much improved and QB Cam Newton is the likely MVP of the regular season. His crazy numbers were the main reason that the Panthers were the second-best ‘over’ team in the league this season with a 10-5-1 record and that included a 5-2-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium.

However, it’s hard to forget that Newton is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs and his TD-INT ratio is 5:5. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions: In last week’s installment, I touched briefly on Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch and how he might screw up the offensive chemistry. He didn’t play but he’s expected to suit up Sunday and I’m going to guess that he’ll silence everybody this weekend. Seattle is 2-0 this year when he touches the rock 20 times or more, the victories by 20-3 and 13-12. In playoff games with the ‘Hawks, the club is 5-1 when he gets over 100 yards and you can probably figure out the loss (SBXLIX). In these six games, Seattle has averaged 27 PPG. I’m buying Seattle Team Total Over 21 on Sunday and Over 44 for the game as well.

Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The total on this game is hovering between 39 and 40 points and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop by kickoff. The Steelers won’t have wide receiver Antonio Brown or running back DeAngelo Williams available, plus quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is ‘questionable’ but dealing with a serious shoulder injury.

If all three were healthy, you’d be staring at a total in the mid-forties maybe higher since QB Peyton Manning is back under center for Denver and Pittsburgh’s defense is very suspect, especially if they can’t get pressure on the quarterback.

The Steelers beat the Broncos 34-27 in Week 14 at home but Denver led 27-13 at halftime and backup QB Brock Osweler lit them up for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Big Ben got his too (380 yards, 3 TDs) but Brown compiled a monster game (16 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs) against Denver.

Denver’s defense didn’t have a great day versus Pittsburgh but it’s only allowing 18.5 PPG at home and it enters this game very healthy. The Broncos watched the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home this season and the Steelers enter this game with an 11-6 record to the ‘under’ and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road.

Including the result from this past December, the ‘over’ has cashed in three straight meetings between the pair and eight of the last 10 going back to 1997. The last playoff encounter between the two teams took place in the 2011-12 playoffs and Tim Tebow helped Denver beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime at home.

Since Manning arrived in Denver, the club is 2-2 at home in the playoffs and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those games. Mike Tomlin ‘over’ record with Pittsburgh in the playoffs stands at 8-1-1 in 10 games after last week’s ‘under’ result versus Cincinnati.

Fearless Predictions: Everybody is expecting Denver to rip a short-handed Pittsburgh squad and it very well could. However, when Big Ben missed four games in the regular season the defense for the Steelers stepped up and only allowed an average of 19.8 PPG and that includes a 13-point effort against a quality Arizona squad. In four home games with Peyton starting at QB, Denver only averaged 21 PPG. I think this game will be tighter than expected and the Broncos struggle offensively. With that being said, I’m leaning Denver Team Total Under 24 in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - DP
By Micah Roberts

Divisional Playoffs

Las Vegas sports books haven't even seen 10 percent of the action they'll take in over the weekend in the four NFL divisional playoff games, but early indications show it’s going to be a teaser kind of weekend for bettors.

And why not?

The spreads on the games are perfect for the teaser with a couple of 7’s and a few dogs crossing key numbers. Best of all for teaser bettors is they have some recent history on their sound during this round. How does the all-way side teaser going 7-1 in the Divisional Playoff round last year sound? How about 19-5 in the past three years?

The sports books set some nice numbers where all eight remaining teams usually play to their true ratings. The reflection of how good those numbers are is what happens if you add 6-points to each side. Last season three of the four divisional games were all-way side winners.

Can you imagine that? Just walking to the betting counter this week and saying, "I’m betting the line is perfect and I’ll take both the Patriots and Chiefs in a 6-point teaser." Then the Patriots win 20-16, and you cash. Don’t try that, really, it’s not a strong betting move, but it’s an example of what has been happening lately in this round. These spreads are tight.

The one spread that still has some loose ends is Sunday’s game with Pittsburgh at Denver, where most sports books kept the game off the board all week until posting Broncos -7 on Friday. Will Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) play? That is the main question.

"We didn’t post a line until today (Friday) on the Denver game because there was too much uncertainty with the Steelers key performers," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "Antonio Brown is now out, Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown a pass in practice yet (through Thursday) and (DeAngelo) Williams is likely out. That’s basically their entire offensive attack in limbo."

Osborne is still waiting on any Roethlisberger news, but posted Denver -7 (no total) Friday without the news just because of all the weekend action that has started to heat up. It’s the NFL playoffs. People are excited and they want to bet all the games.

CG Technology books have been playing the wait and see game with Pittsburgh while posting a number for low limits -- wise guys get only $1,000. They were one of the few books in town in town with a number posted all week.

"We opened Denver at -6 on Monday knowing there we’re lots of injury issues surrounding the Steelers and we we’re steady at -6.5 for most of the week and got mostly Denver money," said Jason Simbal, VP of risk management for CG Technology.

"So we moved to -7 on Thursday, then when Brown was ruled out Friday we moved to -7 -120 and then someone immediately took +7 EVEN, so we’re down -7 -115 now."

Low limits or not, CG Tech books have already established that they’ll need Pittsburgh on Sunday with their small sample size of action. They have the total posted at 39.5, along with the Westgate SuperBook and Coast Casinos.

The big news Simbal and every Las Vegas sports book is waiting for is how Roethlisberger looked in Friday’s practice, and most of all whether or not he even threw a pass. He participated in Thursday’s practice, but only practiced hand-offs and didn’t throw.

"Initially, I was thinking the Broncos would be -9.5 if Ben doesn’t play, but combined with Brown being OUT and Williams most likely OUT, that deserves to be represented more in the number, so I’m looking at -10 or -10.5 if Ben doesn’t play," said Simbal.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White said the drop off from Roethlisberger to back-up quarterback Landry Jones is worth about 5-points to the number.

Brown isn’t quite worth a full point, but as the best receiver in the game he’s worth about an eighth of a point. White also said Peyton Manning is an upgrade of almost 3-points over Brock Osweiler, so when looking at the number of Broncos -7, it’s almost a halfway Big Ben in/out number. If everyone was healthy, Denver might have started about -5.

Sunday's early game features the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense and the number has been on a roller coaster ride.

"The game we’ve had the most fun with booking this week has been Carolina and Seattle," said Simbal. "We opened Carolina -1.5 (Sunday night) and we had some large wagers lay it and also lay -2. But when we got +3, we started seeing large action come back on Seattle taking us back down to where we started."

It’s not unusual to see sophisticated betting groups seed an early point-spread at a few books around town to help set the market hoping other books follow and then they can come back strong at many more books at the optimal number, which in this case was getting Seattle +3.

"We just don’t want the game to land ’3’. We started at -3 and we’re at -1.5 now," said Osborne, who doesn’t want to get sided.

Many books opened the Panthers money-line at -150 (+130 on Seattle) and it’s down as low as -125/+105. The total is consistent at 44.

The CG Tech books also have another rooting interest in the Panthers game because of their stance on Super Bowl futures.

"We do extremely well with the Panthers (+430) to win the Super Bowl. It‘s our best decision," said Simbal. Hardly anyone had been betting them during the season, while Seattle (+430) has been the most popular to where they are our biggest risk."

The Patriots opened as 5-point home favorites over the Chiefs for Saturday's early game and that number has dropped to -4.5.

"We’re seeing equal action on straight bets and parlays with the Patriots and Chiefs," said Osborne. "The big thing that stands out on this game is the Chiefs money line (+190) and also teasers with the Chiefs."

The casual teaser bettor might say, "what's wrong with taking +10.5 with Kansas City on an 11-game win streak while our last image of the Patriots in action was getting outgained by 242 yards at Miami in a 20-10 loss when home field was at stake. Plus, how's Rob Gronkowski doing?"

The Cardinals are 7-point home favorites over the Packerson Saturday night, and its been the most steady number of the week.

"Parlays and straight bets are down the middle with the Cardinals and Packers, but were loaded on Cardinals teaser action," said Osborne, who Friday dropped the total from the opening number of 50 down to 49.5.

"Our biggest teaser risk of the weekend so far is with Denver and Arizona," said Simbal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Seahawks (10-6) at Panthers (15-1)

Date: January 17, 2016 1:05 PM EDT

Despite having taken a big step toward exorcising their demons against the Seattle Seahawks, the Carolina Panthers still must prove they can get past them on a much grander stage.

After getting knocked from the playoffs by the Seahawks in this round last season, the Panthers can show their victory at Seattle in October was no fluke and prevent their nemesis from reaching a third consecutive NFC Championship game Sunday.

Carolina didn't have any statement-making wins before facing a huge hurdle in Week 6, visiting a Seahawks team which had won nine straight home games and 28 of 30 - including the playoffs. Cam Newton capped a rally from 13 down in the second half by hitting Greg Olsen on a 26-yard touchdown pass with 32 seconds remaining for a 27-23 win, one which fifth-year coach Ron Rivera called "one of the bigger victories we've had since I've been here."

It clearly boosted the confidence of a Panthers team which went on to win its first 14 games and posted by far the best regular season in franchise history at 15-1.

Seattle also responded in strong fashion, winning eight of 10 to close the regular season before last week's fortunate 10-9 wild-card win in Minnesota.

At least one member of the Panthers feels they are superior to Seattle, which has reached the past two Super Bowls and knocked off Carolina 31-17 in last year's divisional round.

'We are the better team,' safety Roman Harper said. 'We have to go out and show confidence in who we are and the things that we have done all year - and don't shy away from the pressure."

The pressure is squarely on Newton for this one. The MVP candidate has one interception in his last eight games but has seven turnovers in three career playoff games, committing three in last year's loss at Seattle. His only playoff win came a week earlier, but that was against an Arizona team down to its third-string quarterback.

Newton had two more interceptions against the Seahawks in October but keyed the second-half comeback, finishing 20 of 36 for 269 yards. He also rushed for 30 yards and a score.

Before that win, Carolina was held to an average of 11.8 points during a five-game losing streak in the series. Unlike last year's playoff matchup, though, this time the Panthers are coming off a first-round bye and have the home-field advantage.

"We realize we've got to do this on the road and if we want to do something really special, it's going to take an incredible run here," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "... We're going to do everything we can to see if we can slow them down and find a way to move the football against a great football team."

Carolina hasn't been to the NFC title game since a 34-14 loss at Seattle after the 2005 season.

Both Harper and cornerback Josh Norman called it "fate" that the Panthers are getting the Seahawks again.

"After we played them (in Week 6), we said, 'We'll see you again in the playoffs,'" Norman told the team's official website. "It's cool. Fate gives you these chances to prove yourself worthy."

It seemed like fate when the Vikings' Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field-goal attempt with 26 seconds remaining to allow Seattle to advance, and that came after Adrian Peterson's fumble set up Steven Hauschka's go-ahead, 46-yard field goal. The Seahawks overcame a 9-0 deficit in the fourth quarter, sparked by Russell Wilson's three-yard TD pass to Doug Baldwin.

Wilson had a tough day in below-zero weather, completing 13 of 26 passes for 142 yards - his fewest since October 2014. He had just his second interception in eight games, a stretch during which he has 25 touchdown passes as his chemistry with Baldwin has grown.

Baldwin has 52 receptions for 766 yards and 13 touchdowns over that span. Now he's likely to draw plenty of attention from Norman, a physical, trash-talking All-Pro corner.

"Doug is an explosive guy," Norman said. "He makes plays whenever he can and he's a try-hard guy. He does everything he can to beat the defender. I like guys like that."

While Norman helped hold Baldwin to three catches for 23 yards in October, Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham had eight for 140 but is out for the season with a knee injury. Wilson threw for 241 yards and a score with no INTs but was sacked four times by a Carolina team that led the NFC with 44.

Though Marshawn Lynch hasn't had much success against that defense, Seattle surely would like to have him back. Lynch hasn't played since Week 10 with an abdomen injury, but he's listed as probable for Sunday.

The Seahawks were hopeful Lynch would return last week against Minnesota, but he did not accompany the team to Minneapolis after determining he was not ready to play. He's been a full participant in practice each day the past two weeks.

'This is his first surgery and it happens to be right in his core and you all know having watched him, you all know what kind of runner he is and the lateral things he does with his body they're so abrupt and so sudden he needs to feel he can do those things,' Carroll said.

Lynch had 54 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against the Panthers earlier this season and has never topped 85 yards in seven games against them. Carolina ranked fourth in the league against the run at 88.4 yards per game.

The Seahawks were No. 1 at 81.5 and held Peterson to 45 on 23 carries, but they gave up a season-worst 135 rushing yards to Carolina. Jonathan Stewart ran for 78 and two TDs that day and will return after missing the last three games with a foot injury.

Top wideout Ted Ginn Jr. (leg) and starting safety Kurt Coleman (foot) also will be back after sitting out the regular-season finale. Defensively, though, the Panthers must rely on fill-in cornerbacks Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan after Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere recently suffered season-ending injuries.

While the Panthers have won 11 consecutive home games, Seattle has won a franchise-record six straight on the road - including last week's victory.

The Seahawks are trying to join Green Bay (1965-67), Miami (1971-73) and Buffalo (1991-93) as the only teams to reach three straight Super Bowls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Steelers (10-6) at Broncos (12-4)

Date: January 17, 2016 4:40 PM EDT

The Pittsburgh Steelers were among the few teams to succeed against the Denver Broncos' top-ranked defense this season.

That probably won't be so easy this time around.

Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams won't play while Ben Roethlisberger may at least be limited, and the top-seeded Broncos' secondary is far healthier as the Steelers visit Denver on Sunday in an AFC divisional-round game.

Pittsburgh (11-6) is the only team to reach 30 points versus Denver and posted the highest yardage total of the season against the Broncos with 377 in a 34-27 victory Dec. 20. Roethlisberger threw for 380 yards and Brown finished with 189 receiving - also both season highs for Denver opponents.

"We got lucky the first time," said Roethlisberger, the only quarterback to throw for 300 yards against the Broncos in 2015. "We made plays, they had guys injured, we were at home. It's not going to be that easy (again)."

Especially without Brown (concussion) and Williams (foot). The Steelers advanced with a stunning late rally in an 18-16 wild-card win at Cincinnati, but the price was high as both Roethlisberger and Brown suffered injuries.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder late in the third quarter on a sack by Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict, and Brown took a shoulder to the head from Burfict while trying to make a leaping catch with 22 seconds left - the first of back-to-back Cincinnati penalties that helped set up Chris Boswell's winning field goal.

Roethlisberger, who returned for Pittsburgh's final drive, said Tuesday on his radio show that he's dealing with torn ligaments and a sprain in his right shoulder. He didn't throw in practice earlier in the week but did on Friday, with coach Mike Tomlin saying Roethlisberger did everything they asked of him.

Though he's listed as questionable, it seems the Steelers expect him to play.

Williams won't after missing the playoff opener, leaving Pittsburgh's third-ranked offense well short on weapons as the club looks to reach the AFC championship game for the first time in five years.

Brown, an All-Pro, torched a Broncos secondary that was without safeties T.J. Ward, Darian Stewart and Omar Bolden for 16 catches and a pair of touchdowns last month while ending Chris Harris Jr.'s 35-game streak without giving up a touchdown. He had seven catches for 119 yards against the Bengals, his highest total in six career playoff games.

"We want those guys to be there," Denver cornerback Aqib Talib said of the injured Steelers. "If we didn't want them to be there, that means I'd want A.B. to be messed up. That's a good dude, a good family dude. We don't want him to be messed up."

Denver (12-4) will have Peyton Manning starting under center for the first time since Week 10, when reports surfaced he had a partially torn plantar fascia in his left foot after a dismal start to the season. Manning relieved an inconsistent Brock Osweiler in a 27-20 win over San Diego in the regular-season finale, going 5 of 9 for 69 yards to spark an offense that had scored seven points in the first half.

Manning will have Demaryius Thomas and former Steeler Emmanuel Sanders as targets. The pair combined for 242 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup with Osweiler throwing to them.

Perhaps more importantly, the Broncos should have a completely healthy secondary. With Ward and Stewart back for the final two weeks of the regular season, the Broncos held the Bengals and Chargers to a combined 393 passing yards.

That group might have a bit more motivation due to a hit from Steelers center Cody Wallace on Denver safety David Bruton Jr. last month. Two plays after breaking his fibula, Bruton was speared by Wallace. The seven-year veteran was later placed on season-ending injured reserve.

"No, it's not going to be anything as far as cheap or anything," Stewart said. "We're going to get them between the lines, between the plays, the whistle. So, I mean, (Wallace is) going to be sore after the game. That's how I see it, man. He come out on a screen, he'd better not come at (number 26, Stewart's jersey). Shoot, I'm cutting him."

The Broncos have won eight of the last 11 meetings with the Steelers in Denver, including a 29-23 overtime victory in a wild-card game Jan. 8, 2012 in which Thomas scored in the extra period on an 80-yard pass from Tim Tebow.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the Divisional Round this weekend:

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 44)

Seahawks’ pass rush vs. Cam Newton’s play under pressure

The Seahawks are out to avenge a loss to Cam Newton and Carolina at home back in Week 6, when they visit the Panthers in the Divisional Round. In that game, Seattle limited Cam Newton to 20-of-36 passing for 269 yards and two interceptions, sacking the mobile dual threat three times.

Washington Post writer Jeff Dooley did a great breakdown of how much Newton is impacted by pressure in the pocket, comparing his 112.8 QB rating in a clean pocket (98.2 NFL average) to his declining rating of 66.9 under pressure (71.5 NFL average).

Newton will get plenty of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril Sunday, with that duo doing damage in the last few games. Bennett has 3.5 sacks in the last six games while Avril has 2.5 in the last two outings. The pair is much more disruptive than those numbers would indicate and the fact Seattle’s defense is constantly shifting them around makes them even more chaotic.

And, as Dooley notes, Carolina has only one reliable receiving option in TE Greg Olsen. With the Seahawks able to rotate big athletic defenders on Olsen, that could force Newton to look elsewhere – which means more time in a crumbling pocket.

Daily fantasy watch: Seattle D/ST


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7, N/A)

Big Ben’s bad arm vs. Broncos’ potent pass defense

Ben Roethlisberger is one tough dude. It looks like the Steelers QB is going to play Sunday despite a nasty shoulder injury that transformer Big Ben’s cannon of a throwing arm into a wet noodle in the closing minutes of the Wild Card game with Cincinnati. Roethlisberger admitted he won’t be able to heave the deep ball like he has all season, taking perhaps Pittsburgh’s strongest weapon off the board.

On the year, the Steelers registered a NFL-high 43 passes of 25 yards or more. Now, they’ll be stuck to underneath throws and short chucks, which doesn’t fit their offensive model. Pittsburgh was one of the top teams in yards at the catch, averaging 7.4 yards per reception according to SportingCharts.com (seventh most), but failed to tack on much more once it had the football.

The Steelers ranked seventh lowest in YAC, adding only 4.93 yards after the reception. If the Steelers receivers are going to make up for Roethlisberger’s injured arm, they’ll need to add on much more than that – especially against the top passing defense in the NFL and also its most vaunted pass rush.

Denver is allowing teams to pick up only 9.3 yards per completion to begin with and has given up just 26 passing plays of 25 yards or more, with an average of just under 111 YAC per game – eighth lowest. Without the threat of the deep ball, the Broncos may load up the box and unleash hell in the form of a pass rush that tops the NFL with 52 sacks and 113 defensive hurries.

Daily fantasy watch: Denver D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Playoff Action

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-6) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (15-1)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Line: Carolina -2.5, Total: 44.0

The Seahawks will be looking to make it to their third straight NFC Championship Game when they face the Panthers in Carolina on Sunday.

The Seahawks are fortunate to be playing in this game, as they really only defeated the Vikings in the wild card round thanks to a missed Blair Walsh chip shot. Seattle escaped with a 10-9 victory as a 4.5-point favorite, but the team will not be happy with the way that it played. The Seahawks must do better offensively against a Panthers team that went 15-1 this season.

Carolina lost only one game this season SU and was dominant ATS too, going 11-5 on the year. The team did, however, play a week schedule.

When these teams met in Seattle on Oct. 18, the Panthers shocked the Seahawks with a 27-23 victory as seven-point road underdogs. Seattle let that game slip away and is still 3-1 SU in this head-to-head series over the past three seasons. T

he Seahawks have won their last two games in Carolina and both of those contests went Under the total. One trend working in the Seahawks’ favor is that the team is 8-1 ATS after having won four of its past five games over the last two seasons.

The Panthers, however, were 6-0 ATS in games where the line was +3 to -3 this season.

TE Luke Willson (Concussion) and RB Marshawn Lynch (Abdominal) are questionable for Seattle and RB Jonathan Stewart (Foot) is questionable for Carolina.

The Seahawks have the league’s best defense and that is going to keep them in games. Seattle allowed just 17.3 PPG this season (1st in NFL) and they’ve allowed just 58 points over the past six games.

This team is clicking on defense and will just need Russell Wilson to lead the offense on a few scoring drives in this one. Wilson had a tough time getting things going against Minnesota in the wild card round, throwing for just 142 yards with one touchdown and one pick.

Wilson also wasn’t at his best the last time he faced the Panthers, going 18-for-30 with 241 yards and a touchdown in the loss. It wasn’t a poor outing for Wilson, but he did throw for 24 touchdowns and just one interception over the final seven weeks of the season and is capable of having some explosive games.

He’ll need to channel that type of play on Sunday or his team may be going home early. Doug Baldwin will be the guy that Wilson is looking at in this one. He caught five passes for 42 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings and emerged as one of the league’s top receivers late in the season. He’ll need to shake free for some big plays in this game.

The Panthers were one of the best teams in football during the regular season and the team did it on both sides of the field. Carolina was dominant offensively, putting up 31.3 PPG (1st in NFL) with Cam Newton leading the way. Defensively, the Panthers were giving up just 19.3 PPG (6th in NFL). It’s good that Carolina is balanced, as the team will need to bring it on both ends against this experienced Seattle team.

Cam Newton’s play will, however, determine the outcome of this game for the Panthers. When he faced the Seahawks earlier in the season, Newton threw for 269 yards, one touchdown and one interception and he also rushed for 30 yards and a touchdown. He was very good in that game, but turnovers were an issue. If he wants his team to avoid being the one that peaked in the regular season then he will need to take care of the football on Sunday.

Greg Olsen is Newton’s favorite target all over the field. He had seven catches for 131 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with Seattle. If he can come anywhere near matching that production then the team should be in good position to win the game.

One big plus for the Panthers in this game is that Jonathan Stewart is set to make his return. Stewart rushed for 989 yards and six touchdowns this season and really adds another element to the Carolina offense. If he is healthy then he will really help the team in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's NFL Divisional betting preview: Seahawks at Panthers and Steelers at Broncos

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 40.5)

The Seattle Seahawks escaped a near-certain defeat in the opening round of the playoffs and continue their bid for a third straight trip to the Super Bowl when they visit the top-seeded Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Seattle squeezed out a 10-9 victory at Minnesota last weekend when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field-goal attempt in the final minute.

The sixth-seeded Seahawks now get a chance to avenge a regular-season home loss to the Panthers, who erased a 13-point, second-half deficit in a 27-23 victory at Seattle in Week 6. The Seahawks have reeled off six consecutive road wins, surrendering a scant total of 43 points in that stretch. Carolina, which won its first 14 games and pounded Tampa Bay 38-10 in the season finale, was expecting a rematch against Seattle. "After we played them, we said, 'We'll see you again in the playoffs,'" Panthers star cornerback Josh Norman said. "It's cool. Fate gives you these chances to prove yourself worthy."

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening as 3-point home favorites, the Panthers were bet all the way down to -1, before bouncing back to -2.5. The total has yet to move off its opening number of 44.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - DE M. Bennett (probable Sunday, toe), RB M. Lynch (probable Sunday, hernia), TE L. Wilson (probable Sunday, concussion), FB W. Tukuafu (doubtful Sunday, hamstring).

Panthers - LB D. Mayo (probable Sunday, hamstring), S K. Coleman (probable Sunday, foot), WR T. Ginn (questionable Sunday, knee), LB A. Klein (questionable Sunday, hamstring), RB F. Whittaker (out Sunday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: It could be wet in Charlotte on Sunday. It will be partly cloudy wuth a 54 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the low 40's and there will be a 5-7 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southeast end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-6) - Panthers (-5.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -2.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Panthers pick'em and that number got decimated by the public, forcing us to get to 3 within hours of opening our number. We got to 3 flat before the sharp's got involved, they took +3 -110, +3 -115 and +3 -120, at which point we went down to 2.5 and eventually 2 flat. Then the public got involved again and we got back to 2.5 flat and then -2.5 -120, which is our current number. This game has seen some serious line movement and I honestly hate our position going into tomorrow. This should be a very closely contest matchup and I could see 3 coming into play quite easily. In fact, it's a game that has Panthers by 3 written all over it, and if it lands 3 as of now we get crushed. We've only written Seahawks money at the number 3, so all that money would be refunded and all the action on the Panthers that drove us to 3 would cash." - Pete Childs.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-6, 8-8-1 ATS, 7-10 O/U): After surviving ice-box conditions in Minnesota, Seattle is hoping for the return of running back Marshawn Lynch, who practiced fully last week for the first time since undergoing abdominal surgery on Nov. 25 but said he wasn't ready to go against the Vikings. Russell Wilson, who threw for 241 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, had 24 TD passes and one interception in a seven-game span before being limited to 142 yards against Minnesota. As good as Seattle's defense has been on the road, it allowed four 80-yard TD drives to the Panthers in Week 6.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Cam Newton was picked off twice in the first matchup, but he has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only one interception over his last eight games. Greg Olsen continued a trend of tight ends burning Seattle's defense by hauling in seven passes for 131 yards, including the go-ahead 26-yard TD with under a minute to play. Jonathan Stewart, who ran for 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the earlier meeting, will return to the lineup after missing three games due to a foot injury. Carolina's defense sacked Wilson four times and is third in the league with 40.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the NFC's No. 1 seed in this rematch from the regular season with 63 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total 68 percent of wagers are on the under.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Peyton Manning knows all too well that the playoffs present a one-and-done scenario. With nine defeats in his team's initial playoff game on his resume, the 39-year-old Manning isn't taking anything for granted heading into the AFC West-champion Denver Broncos' divisional-round clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

"Playoffs, anything goes," Manning told reporters on Wednesday. "Everything's on the table." The veteran missed Denver's 34-27 setback to Pittsburgh on Dec. 20 due to a left foot injury but entered the team's regular-season finale and engineered four scoring drives en route to a 27-20 victory over San Diego. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns while All-Pro Antonio Brown made 16 catches for 189 yards in the initial meeting with the Broncos, but both stars were injured during Pittsburgh's 18-16 wild-card win over AFC North-rival Cincinnati last week. Roethlisberger returned to the contest despite nursing a shoulder injury while Brown was drilled by Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict and is in the NFL's concussion protocol.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: With injuries to several key players to the Steelers the line was held off the board for the majority of the week and eventually opened the Broncos as 5-point faves and quickly moved to -7. With Antonio Brown out the line moved to -8 and has settled back down at Broncos -7.5. The total has been bet up two points from 38.5 to 40.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - FB W. Johnson (probable Sunday, hamstring), QB B. Roethlisberger (probable Sunday, shoulder), LB R. Shazier (probable Sunday, knee), DE C. Heyward (probable Sunday, back), S R. Golden (probable Sunday, shoulder), WR S. Coates (questionable Sunday, illness), CB D. Grant (questionable Sunday, groin), RB D. Williams (out Sunday, foot), WR A. Brown (out Sunday, head).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Sunday, knee), S O. Bolden (probable Sunday, groin), S D. Stewart (probable Sunday, hamstring), CB C. Harris (probable Sunday, shoulder), QB B. Osweiler (questionable Sunday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice day for football in Denver. It will be partly cloudy with just a 12 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the mid 30's. There will just be minimal wind.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3.5) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened up a very bad number on the Broncos, opening up -4 and we paid the price for a poor number. Our limits were low at the time as we had the game circled with Big Ben nursing a shoulder surgery and Antonio Brown very questionable because he was going through Concussion Protocol, we weren't exactly sure what to open. While we opened up low, we booked this game very aggressively and it didn't take much for us to get to 6, then 6.5, and eventually to 7; then news broke that Brown wasn't going to play tomorrow we immediately went to 7.5 which is our current number. So far roughly 65% of the action is on the Broncos, most of that action between the numbers of 4 to 7 points, and any and all Steelers money is on them at +7.5, so once again we're not in the best position going into this game if it lands 7 it's going to hurt." - Pete Childs.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-6, 9-6-2 ATS, 6-11 O/U): With a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his shoulder, Roethlisberger likely isn't going to throw the ball around with the same frequency (season-high 55 attempts) that he did in the first meeting with the Broncos. Should Brown sit out on Sunday, Roethlisberger will turn to wideouts Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton - as well as trusty tight end Heath Miller - to move the ball down the field. Playing without veteran DeAngelo Williams (foot), the duo of Jordan Todman (65 yards) and Fitzgerald Toussaint (58 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving) provided a backfield presence in the wild-card game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Former Steeler Emmanuel Sanders hopes Sunday's tilt will feature a repeat of his strong performance in the first meeting, when he reeled in a season-high 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. "You get ready for everything, but teams aren’t going to change what they do that much in the playoffs," Sanders told reporters. "You get ready to adjust, but we do what we do, they do what they do and you execute." Fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had two of his six touchdown receptions this season against Pittsburgh.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
* Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
* Under is 8-2 in Steelers last 10 road games.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split in this matchup, with 52 percent of wagers on the Broncos. When it comes to the total, 57 percent of wagers are on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Seahawks at Panthers (-1 ½, 44) – 1:05 PM EST – FOX

The weekend’s most intriguing matchup takes place in Charlotte as both these teams can be considered the hunter and the hunted.

Seattle is the hunted due to winning the last two NFC championships, while Carolina finished with a league-best 15-1 record and came within two weeks of finishing undefeated. Seattle is the hunter as Pete Carroll’s team is back on the road for the second straight week and won’t be able to play any home games this postseason, while Carolina is looking for its first appearance in the NFC Championship since 2005 – when they lost at Seattle.

The Seahawks (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) dodged a bullet (and elimination) by rallying from a 9-0 deficit in frigid Minnesota to knock out the Vikings, 10-9 in the Wild Card round. Seattle failed to cover as four-point road favorites, but the Seahawks’ defense held Minnesota out of the end zone and received great fortune when Blair Walsh hooked a 27-yard field goal wide left in the final minute.

The game-changing play took place in the fourth quarter when Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson turned a huge loss into a substantial gain when he recovered an errant snap and found wide receiver Tyler Lockett for 35 yards to set up Seattle’s first touchdown. The Seahawks improved to 7-2 in the playoffs with Wilson under center since 2012, but Seattle hasn’t cashed in its last three postseason contests.

The Panthers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS) are coming off their third straight NFC South championship after more than doubling their win total from 2014 (7-8-1 record). Carolina won its first 14 games prior to a 20-13 defeat at Atlanta in Week 16, but Ron Rivera’s team became the sixth team ever to finish a regular season at 15-1. The last team to go 15-1 was the 2012 Packers, who were tripped up at home by the Giants in the divisional playoffs, 37-20.

Quarterback Cam Newton put up MVP numbers by throwing 35 touchdown passes and rushing for 10 more scores. The Panthers had only one player finish with at least 1,000 yards either rushing or receiving, as tight end Greg Olsen hauled in 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns, while running back Jonathan Stewart compiled 989 yards on the ground in spite of missing three games.

One of Carolina’s signature victories came at Seattle in Week 6 as the Panthers rallied for a 27-23 triumph as seven-point underdogs. Seattle built a 20-7 third quarter lead before Carolina put up three touchdowns in the final 18 minutes of the game, capped off by a Newton to Olsen 26-yard connection with 32 seconds remaining. Both Wilson and Newton threw for less than 300 yards, while each team’s star tight end racked up at least 100 yards receiving (Olsen and Jimmy Graham), as the Panthers overcame a pair of Newton interceptions.

The Seahawks eliminated the Panthers from the 2014 postseason with a 31-17 divisional round victory. Seattle managed to cash as heavy 13 ½-point favorites as safety Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for a touchdown with six minutes remaining gave the Seahawks a commanding 31-10 lead. Prior to Carolina’s win over Seattle earlier this season, the Panthers owned an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record in Newton’s first four starts against the Seahawks, including three defeats at Bank of America Stadium.

Carolina swept its home schedule this season, while covering six times at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers have lost two of three playoff games in Newton’s short career with the lone victory coming against Arizona in the Wild Card round last season, 27-16 as 5 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have won six of nine games away from the Pacific Northwest this season, while allowing double-digits just once in its last six road victories.

Steelers at Broncos (-7 ½, 40 ½) – 4:40 PM EST – CBS

It’s amazing how fortunes change quickly in the NFL as Denver was two weeks away from potentially missing the playoffs, but the Broncos ended up clinching the top seed in the AFC with a 27-20 home victory over the Chargers in Week 17. Peyton Manning rescued the Broncos by leading to 10 straight points in the fourth quarter in place of the ineffective Brock Osweiler. Manning and the Broncos face a Steelers’ squad that is missing their big play wide receiver and have a banged-up All-Pro quarterback.

Pittsburgh (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) squandered a 15-0 lead in last week’s AFC Wild Card matchup at Cincinnati, but the Steelers took advantage of two personal foul penalties on the Bengals to pull out an 18-16 victory. Antonio Brown was knocked out by Cincinnati’s Vontaze Burfict on the second-to-last play of regulation, as the Steelers’ standout wide receiver will not play on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger overcame a right shoulder injury to lead Pittsburgh on its game-winning drive, but the Pittsburgh quarterback suffered ligament damage on a hit in the second half and should start on Sunday.

The Broncos (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) overcame a mid-December two-game losing streak to beat the Bengals and Chargers at home to finish tied with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC. Denver owned the head-to-head tiebreaker after rallying past New England in overtime, 30-24 in Week 12 to hand the Patriots their first loss of the season. The Broncos didn’t perform well in the home favorite role this season, posting a 1-5 ATS record with that lone cover occurring in a Week 1 comeback victory over Baltimore.

The Steelers rallied past the Broncos in their most recent matchup in Week 15 at Heinz Field, 34-27. Denver jumped out to a 27-10 advantage, but the Broncos were held scoreless in the second half as they still managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Steelers will definitely miss Brown, who hauled in 16 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns, while Roethlisberger threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half. Pittsburgh rushed for just 23 yards on 17 carries, as running back DeAngelo Williams will miss his second straight game with ankle injury.

The last time the Steelers faced the Broncos in the playoffs came back in the 2011 Wild Card round. Tim Tebow led the Broncos to a thrilling 29-23 overtime victory as 7 ½-point home underdogs after hitting Demaryius Thomas on an 80-yard touchdown strike on the first play in the extra session. Since that win, the Broncos own a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record at home with Manning under center, as Denver has failed to cover in the divisional round all three times.

Pittsburgh has covered in four of six opportunities as a road underdog this season, including outright victories at Cincinnati, San Diego, and St. Louis. The last time the Steelers were listed as an away ‘dog in the playoffs came back in the 2005 AFC Championship against who else, but the Broncos. Pittsburgh crushed Denver, 34-17 to cash as three-point underdogs, as the Steelers are listed as an underdog in the playoffs for the third time in Mike Tomlin’s tenure (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS).

The Steelers are currently riding a three-game ‘under’ streak, while drilling the ‘under’ in seven of nine games away from Heinz Field. The ‘under’ has hit in five of eight home games for the Broncos, including a 3-0-1 mark to the ‘under’ when Manning started at Sports Authority Field. Temperatures shouldn’t be a factor on Sunday as highs are expected in the mid-40’s while there is no threat of snow or rain.

 

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NFL

Conference Semi-finals

Keep in mind, all four home teams had last week off; the road teams all played.

Seahawks (11-6) @ Panthers (15-1)-- Carolina (+7) won 27-23 at Seattle coming off its bye in Week 6, with four 80+-yard TD drives, three in second half. Win ended 5-game losing skid vs Seahawks, who beat Panthers 31-17 in LY's playoffs and are 7-3 overall vs Carolina, with three straight wins in Charlotte by 4-5-4 points (average total, 23.0). Panthers are 15-1 with only loss in Atlanta threee weks ago; they're 5-2 as home favorites. Seattle won seven of last eight games, losing only to Rams in Week 16; they held five of last six foes to 13 points or less, are 1-1-1 as an underdog this year. NFC's #1 seed is 21-4 SU in this round since 1990, winning last three by 2-8-14 points (1-4 vs spread in last five). Newton is 1-2 in his playoff games; Russell Wilson is 7-2 in playoff games; Seahawks won NFC last two years.

Steelers (11-6) @ Broncos (12-4)-- How badly hurt is Big Ben? Antonio Brown? Osweiler might not be available, so what if Manning gets hurt? Steelers (-6.5) rallied from being down 27-13 at half to beat Denver 34-27 at Heinz in Week 15, nine of their four TD drives were longer than 60 yards (won field position by 11 yards). Roethlisberger has damaged shoulder but led winning drive LW; he is 11-5 in playoff games. Steelers are 2-6 in last eight visits to Denver, losing playoff game here in '11-- they're 3-4 in playoffs vs Broncos. Pitt won five of last six games overall; they're 3-3-1 as an underdog this year, but they did beat a backup QB in Cincy LW. Rookie Semien could be Denver's backup QB; Broncos are 5-4 last nine games after a 7-0 start; they're only 1-5 vs spread as a home favorite this season.

Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers 2.5, 44

Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos 6.5, xx

 

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Streaks, Tips, Notes

Divisional Playoffs O/U

Since the 2000-01 campaign it's been a toss up for total players in the division round (29-28-3 O/U) but out trusted NFL DataBase does chip in the 'Over' has a dominate 14-6 mark since the 2010-11 season including 8-3 'Over' with the total set at =<46. Sportsbooks are offering Seahawks - Panthers at 44.0 the lean is 'Over'. Seahaws are 5-2 'Over' in this round, Panters enter 3-1 'Over' in Divisional Playoff games.

 

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'NFC Division Round'

Hard to quibble with Panthers being home chalk in the divisional round. Panthers have an umblemished record at home this season posting an 8-0 (6-2 ATS) record winning by a 16.0 points/game and have won eleven consecutive at Bank of America Stadium dating back to last year outscoring visitors by 13.2 per/contest (7-4 ATS). Panthers also handed Seahawks a 27-23 setback up in Seattle in week-6. With Seahawks walking off with a fortunate 10-9 wild-card win in Minnesota you have ample reson to bet Panthers.

However, 'Buyer Beware'. If betting history has anything to say it won't be easy. The Seahawks aren’t in the role of road underdog too often, but when they are, the tendency is for the team to do their part. That’s why Seahwks have compiled an 8-2-1 record last eleven getting points in enemy territory. More football betting ammunition that leans toward Seahawks. Since the arrival of Pete Caroll on the side lines, Seahawks are a money-making 11-1-1 ATS as underdogs revenging a loss. Finally, road underdogs off a three or less point Wild Card win have a sparkling 8-3 record against the betting line in this round.