Sunday 1/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Heat (23-17) at Thunder (29-12)

Date: January 17, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Nearly midway through a daunting road stretch, the banged-up Miami Heat face a significant task in trying to close a six-game trip at .500 before a brief swing home.

That challenge comes Sunday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who own the NBA's third-best home record and have recently gotten back to pairing solid defense with explosive offense on their floor.

The Heat (23-17) continue battling Atlanta atop the Southeast Division while playing 11 of 12 on the road. Although Miami has lost three of those first five, it has kept pace because the Hawks are slumping.

The Heat return to Miami to face Milwaukee on Tuesday before embarking on a five-game trip, and a loss to the Thunder will drop them to 9-9 on the road.

After opening the first of their two treks with a win at Phoenix, the Heat lost to Utah, Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers before beating Denver 98-95 on Friday despite missing their starting backcourt.

Dwyane Wade sat out with ailing shoulders and Goran Dragic with a strained right calf that will keep him out a week. Dragic had an MRI that ruled out tears in the calf.

"I haven't gotten any MRIs or nothing," said Wade, who hoped three days off for treatment will get him ready for the Thunder. "Right now I'm going off how I feel."

Miami went big without its starting guards. Hassan Whiteside had 19 points, 17 rebounds and 11 blocks, and Chris Bosh scored 24, including the tiebreaking jumper with 55 seconds left. Beno Udrih filled in for Dragic with 11 assists and no turnovers.

Whiteside, who's been battling right knee tendinitis, had 10 points, 12 rebounds and seven blocks during a second half in which Denver shot 28 percent with him dominating the middle. The Nuggets finished with 22 points in the paint.

"I told coach (Erik Spoelstra) when I got on the bus my knee felt the best it's felt since I injured it," Whiteside said. "I told him, 'Don't limit my minutes. I'm back to that athletic Hassan you know.'"

He'll need to bring that athleticism against Oklahoma City (29-12), which is second in the league with an average of 108.8 points and third with 48.8 per game in the paint. The Heat already allow the third-fewest points in the NBA at 95.5.

Miami beat the Thunder at home 97-95 on Dec. 3 with Whiteside patrolling the lane, but he didn't force them to the perimeter. Oklahoma City did miss 12 from 3-point range, but its 16 attempts were more than five below its season average and it owned a 44-35 rebounding advantage while scoring 50 points inside.

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant had 25 points apiece for Oklahoma City but combined for 12 turnovers. Wade had a game-high 28 points and Whiteside scored 11 with eight rebounds.

The Thunder are 19-5 at Chesapeake Energy Arena and have returned to playing strong defense there with an average of 92.0 points allowed in the previous three. Pair that with a 111.0 scoring average in those games and they're looking tough to beat at home.

The Northwest leaders got 21 points from Durant while Westbrook had 12 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists for his fourth triple-double of the season before sitting out the entire fourth quarter of Friday's 113-93 rout of Minnesota.

"Everybody's passing the ball, everybody's moving the ball around, making the extra pass and getting guys wide-open shots, wide-open dunks," said Westbrook, who's been limited to 37.1 percent shooting in his career against the Heat.

Durant's career numbers are much better against Miami with an average of 28.6 points on 48.5 percent shooting, but his teams have gone 7-9 in those contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pacers (22-18) at Nuggets (15-25)

Date: January 17, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Indiana Pacers have made their mark defensively under Frank Vogel, but shortcomings on both ends have them on the verge of matching their longest losing streak of the season.

That could be difficult to avoid given the team's track record against the Denver Nuggets.

An unhappy Paul George hopes the Pacers can break out of their funk Sunday night when they look to halt a six-game slide at the Pepsi Center in the opener of a four-game trip.

Indiana, which ranks in the NBA's top 10 defensively with 98.9 points allowed per game, had given up an average of 92.5 in regulation in a 10-game span before allowing more than 100 in back-to-back losses. The Pacers are 3-15 when allowing opponents to score 100 or more.

George was disappointed the Pacers gave the same lackluster performance throughout Friday's 118-104 home loss to Washington that they did in the final two minutes of Wednesday's 103-94 defeat at Boston. After watching the Celtics close the game on a 12-0 run, Indiana (22-18) let the Wizards shoot 52.0 percent from the field and 11 of 25 from 3-point range.

'Poor effort. Poor effort on both ends of the floor," said George, who had 21 points but shot 6 for 19 and had five turnovers. "We should never lose games like this, especially at home, where a team comes in and pushes the tempo and establishes how they're going to play.'

George has made only 10 of his last 44 3-point tries, and the Pacers have shot worse than 30 percent from beyond the arc in six of their past seven games. They're 8 for 47 (17 percent) in the last two as Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles have missed all 18 of their attempts.

"We gotta bring a better effort," George said. "We have to do a better job of coming out, do a better job of preparing. We gotta do a better job, head to toe, on this whole team."

The Nuggets (15-25) are the league's worst team at defending the 3 (38.4 percent) but have let only one of their past five opponents reach 100 points, and that came in Wednesday's 112-110 victory over league-best Golden State. They've won three times in that span despite scoring just 92.8 points per game and shooting 39.5 percent.

Denver fell to 2-1 on this eight-game homestand after scoring 33 second-half points in Friday's 98-95 loss to Miami.

"Obviously, we'll look at the film, get back after it and get ready for Indiana," coach Mike Malone said after his squad blew an 18-point lead.

Darrell Arthur has been a bright spot, totaling 36 points on 16-of-23 shooting and 19 rebounds in his last two games. However, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris and Will Barton finished with a combined 31 points while missing 24 of 32 from the field against the Heat.

Gallinari had 11 points after averaging 26.2 in his first six games back from an ankle injury. His team-high 19 points keyed a 76-73 home win over Indiana on Dec. 20, 2014, in the teams' last meeting.

The Nuggets averaged 117.8 points in the other five games of their home winning streak over the Pacers. Indiana is 4-17 in this series since 2004-05, including 1-9 in Denver.

While Pacers starting center Ian Mahinmi is questionable due to a sore ankle, Denver 7-footer Jusuf Nurkic isn't likely to play after missing Friday's game with a left knee injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockets (21-20) at Lakers (9-33)

Date: January 17, 2016 9:30 PM EDT

The Houston Rockets are entering a back-to-back set, but their goal Sunday night should be to get their stars plenty of rest for the back end.

That's because they have blown out the Los Angeles Lakers twice this season and have won five straight on the road in this series entering a contest that may not feature Kobe Bryant.

Houston's tumultuous season reached the midpoint Friday with a 91-77 loss to Cleveland that ended a five-game win streak. The club fired Kevin McHale due to a 4-7 start, with J.B. Bickerstaff serving as interim coach and guiding the Rockets (21-20) to a winning record.

"It's clear that we're better and we're getting better," Bickerstaff said. "We're not as good as we will be by the end of the season. We will continue to get better."

Houston's leaders in minutes are James Harden and a pair of former Lakers in Dwight Howard and Trevor Ariza. They failed to reach their average playing time in two December routs over Los Angeles by an average of 24.5 points, and a similar effort would pay dividends for Monday's game against the Clippers.

Harden has totaled 55 points and Howard 34 points and 27 rebounds versus the Lakers.

Bryant scored 47 as he made 9 of 16 shots in each of those games for his best shooting efforts of the season. The retiring superstar is shooting 34.6 percent overall for the NBA's worst mark among qualifying players.

His sore right Achilles flared up in Saturday's 109-82 defeat at Utah. Bryant plans to get treatment Sunday morning to see if he can play in this game.

'Jamming it up a little bit, pushing off the toe in an explosive manner sometimes does it,' said Bryant, who made 2 of 8 shots for five points. 'I just tweaked it and couldn't shake it lose tonight.'

Los Angeles (9-33) may be without rookie starting forward Larry Nance Jr., who left in the first quarter with a knee injury and did not return. If Nance can't play, Julius Randle may receive his first start since Dec. 6.

The Lakers allow an average of 107.7 points per 100 possessions for the NBA's worst mark. They are allowing the opponents to shoot 46.3 percent - the same mark the Rockets are yielding.

Harden seeks to bounce back after making 2 of 10 shots for 11 points - one above his season low - in Friday's loss. He also had five assists with eight turnovers.

"They did a good job of using their hands, getting deflections, trapping me, making me give up the ball a little bit," Harden said.

Houston shot 47.1 percent and averaged 103.4 points in its longest win streak of the season before connecting at 35.1 percent and finishing with its lowest point total Friday.

"In the five games that we won, we did a really good job of moving the ball, sharing the ball and making plays for others," Howard said. "And tonight I don't think we did that."

The Lakers, losers of six of seven, are 1-8 in the second of back-to-back games. They seek a better start after falling behind by 14 points after one quarter and 24 at the half Saturday.

'I thought we came out like we won 10 in a row, it was just more laid back," coach Byron Scott said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Sunday's hot teams
-- Spurs won their last ten games (2-4 last six HF).
-- Thunder won five of their last six games (2-6 last 8HF).
-- Nuggets won three of their last five games.
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (3-5AF).

Cold teams
-- Minnesota lost its last nine games (1-7HF). Suns lost nine of their last ten games (1-8 last nine AU).
-- Dallas lost three of its last five games (9-7AU).
-- Miami lost three of its last four games (4-5AU).
-- Indiana lost three of its last four games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last six games (6-7HU).

Series records
-- Suns won five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Home side won last eight Dallas-San Antonio games.
-- Thunder lost seven of last ten games with Miami.
-- Nuggets won seven of last eight games with Indiana.
-- Lakers lost seven of last eight games with Houston.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Phoenix games went over total.
-- Last five Dallas-San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Last three Thunder games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Indiana games went over total.
-- Four of last five Rocket-Laker games stayed under.

Back/backs
-- Lakers are 6-3 vs spread if they played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall

Now that the college football season is behind us, it's hoops time, which means full steam toward March Madness. Get ready to hear a lot more from ESPN's "St. Joe's" Lunardi and other "bracketologists" as we move closer to March. It's been three weeks since our last bracket projection, and there has not been a lot of movement in the intervening span. We would expect that to start changing soon, as conference play has shifted into high gear and the inevitable winnowing of serious candidates for the 68-team field progresses.

We will continue to provide our own Big Dance forecasts periodically into March. For our mid-January update, we include "RPI" (Ratings Percentage Index) number, along with straight-up records, thru January 13. Remember, for all of our "bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and likely favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 17, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 15 and 16. Remember, Selection Sunday is only a bit more than eight weeks away!

EAST REGIONAL (Philadelphia)

At Des Moines...

1 Michigan State (SUR 16-1, RPI-7) vs. 16 Navy (13-5, 153)...The Spartans have key G Denzel Valentine back in the lineup after a brief injury absence that also coincided with the Spartans' first loss of the season at Iowa in late December, knocking Tom Izzo's team out of the No. 1 ranking. But MSU still looks like a top-line team to us and might ascend back atop the rankings before long. At the moment, CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell, under new HC Nathan Davis (most recently at Randolph-Macon), has the early lead in the Patriot. But the most impressive loop team to date has been Navy, under former Penn State HC Ed DeChellis. The Mids were picked near the bottom of the league but performed far above expectations in pre-Patriot play.

8 Butler (12-4, 45) vs. 9 LSU (10-6, 119)...Butler has slipped a few notches from our previous rankings, as it has already absorbed a few blows in the deep Big East. But the early setbacks have been vs. what appears to be the best three teams in the loop (Villanova, Xavier, and Providence), and good pre-league wins vs. Temple, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Purdue should keep the Bulldogs on the safe side of the cut-line for a while. We project a bit here with LSU, but believe it is justified, as the Tigers have started to roar since G Tim Hornsby and F Craig Victor were activated in mid-December. Already the Tigers have wins over Vandy, Kentucky, and Ole Miss since New Year's, and the commercial side of the Selection Committee knows that potential top NBA draft pick F Ben Simmons is on the LSU roster.

At Brooklyn...

4 Miami-Florida (13-2, 18) vs. 13 Monmouth (12-4, 31)...Jim Larranaga has his best team in Coral Gables since the 2013 Sweet Sixteen team, and the upperclassmen-laden Canes look a good bet to secure a protected seed, even after the bitter loss earlier this week at Virginia. As for Monmouth, note that the aforementioned Lunardi has the Hawks in as an at-large in his latest brackets, but Lunardi simply grants automatic bids to first-place teams in their respective leagues. And after a few games in the Metro-Atlantic, Iona is setting the pace. But the MAAC's auto bid is determined by conference tourney, and Monmouth still appears to be the favorite (though the Gaels could be dangerous when fully healthy, as high scorer G A.J. English has missed early action). Monmouth still might have an at-large case with its wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC, and Georgetown, but the bad losses at Canisius and Army mean King Rice's team is well-advised to take care of business at the conference tourney in Albany March 3-7.

5 Iowa State (12-4, 26) vs. 12 San Diego State (10-6, 103)/Seton Hall (12-4, 56)...ISU has probably temporarily played itself out of a protected seed with recent losses to Baylor and Texas, and will undoubtedly take a few more hits in the treacherous Big 12. But barring a complete collapse, Steve Prohm's Cyclones should not have to worry about the bubble into March. That will not be the case with the other two we have projected into on the Dayton "First Four" play-in games. We suspect that San Diego State is going to significantly rehab its at-large prospects in the Mountain West (where it is currently unbeaten) and approach Selection Sunday in decent position to gain a bid, even if it loses in the conference tourney at Las Vegas. As for Seton Hall, the Pirates might deserve a higher ranking, but we foresee some issues in the deep and rugged Big East, and suspect the Hall might be clinging to the bubble when we get to Selection Sunday.

At Providence...

2 Villanova (15-2, 1) vs. 15 North Florida (13-6, 125)...With the top RPI as of midweek, Jay Wright's 'Nova could certainly justify a place on the top line. But the double-digit losses to Oklahoma and Virginia have, for the moment, at least, cost the Cats a line. Though there is certainly time for Nova or whichever team emerges as Big East champ to claim a place on the top line. By the way, the Cats can play in the Philly Regional because it is La Salle, not 'Nova, as the official host of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in later March. In the Atlantic Sun, the North Florida Ospreys are progressing smoothly with four starters back from their first-ever Big Dance qualifier a year ago and look to be favored to repeat, though a new name to watch is NJIT, which joined the A-Sun this season and advanced to the CIT semifinals with a similar-looking group last March.

7 Oregon (13-3, 11) vs. 10 Texas Tech (11-4, 20)...The Pac-12 is one loaded league this season, and given the apparent shortage of quality mid-majors, there will be room for major conferences such as the Pac to probably load up with six or more bids to the Dance. And we suspect Dana Altman's Oregon stays on the safe side of the cut line. We are less certain about Texas Tech, especially since the Red Raiders compete in the brutal Big 12. But if Tubby Smith's team can mostly hold serve in Lubbock and pick up a few quality wins (Texas has already been victimized) along the way, and steal a couple of wins on the conference trail, it should at least ride the bubble into Selection Sunday. Where, as mentioned above, its membership in a power league could prove a plus this season.

At Oklahoma City...

3 Texas A&M (14-2, 12) vs. 14 Harvard (8-8, 52)...Texas A&M has been a pleasant surprise all season and many beleive it is the best team in the SEC. For the moment we do not hesitate to have Billy Kennedy's team in protected seed territory. They have just started play in the Ivy, and based upon more league games played, Princeton is currently topping the table (and would be the Ivy auto qualifier in Lunardi's latest brackets). But Harvard impressed a lot more than any Ivy rep in pre-league play, more than holding its own and even reaching the finals of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu during Christmas week, were it gave top-ranked Oklahoma a good run. Tommy Amaker's Crimson could return to the Dance for a fifth straight year.

6 Dayton (13-3, 17) vs. 11 Saint Mary's (14-2, 54)...There are going to be a few trap doors in this year's A-10 race, though we didn't expect Dayton to fall through the one at La Salle last weekend. But a bounce-back win over Davidson suggests HC Archie Miller has the Flyers back on track. Randy Bennett's Saint Mary's has been the pleasant surprise of the WCC, though the Gaels are not going to be able to afford many more results such as last week's loss to Pepperdine if they want to stay on the safe side of the cut line.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Louisville)

At Des Moines...

1 Kansas (14-2, 2) vs. 16 Southern (10-7,191)/High Point (12-4, 156)...Even after the Big Monday loss at West Virginia, we have kept the Jayhawks on the top line. The other defeat came in mid-November at Chicago vs. Michigan State, so a couple of losses to top ten-caliber teams should not penalize a team too much, especially since KU has plenty of other quality wins. The SWAC would seem almost a certainty to be involved in a 16 vs. 16 game, as the Southern U Jaguars are the only loop rep currently with a record above .500. The Big South has a bit more depth, but, at the moment, a measured vote for Scott Cherry's High Point Panthers, featuring sr. F John Brown, an ACC-caliber performer known for his windmill dunks. Also keep at eye on UNC-Asheville, which beat Georgetown (as did another Big South rep, Radford) in pre-league play.

8 UConn (11-4, 81) vs. 9 George Washington (14-3, 29)...The Huskies have taken a few hits, but most believe Kevin Ollie's team will be among the few left standing at the end of the term in the American. Soon, UConn also gets back shot-swatting 7-0 C Amida Brimah, a holdover from the national title team of two years ago but sidelined for the past several weeks with a broken finger. GW's at-large case has been damaged by bad road losses at DePaul and Saint Louis, but wins over Virginia, Seton Hall, and Tennessee would be enough right now to keep the Colonials in the field. Still, HC Mike Lonergan risks problems with the Selection Committee with any more bad losses like those vs. the Blue Demons and Billikens.

At Denver....

4 Pitt (14-1, 21) vs. 13 Valparaiso (13-3, 24)...Pitt has quietly posted one of the most subtle 14-1 records in the nation. There are reasons to believe Jamie Dixon's team is legit, especially after its wire-to-wire win at Notre Dame last weekend. Tougher ACC dates await, but for now the Panthers probably rate a protected seed. Valpo sent a message to the rest of the Horizon that the title road still goes thru the Crusaders after their beatdown of challenger Oakland last Friday. With almost all of his weapons back from last year's Big Dance qualifier, HC Bryce Drew again has the team to beat in the loop.

5 Purdue (15-3, 32) vs. 12 Northern Illinois (14-2, 70)...Recent losses to Iowa and Illinois have temporarily cost the Boilermakers a protected seed, but there is plenty of time for Matt Painter's team to move back into that category. Barring injuries, hard to imagine Purdue not steering very clear of the cut line on Selection Sunday. The MAC looks to be a wide-open race, but as usual it appears a one-bid league, as it has been for well over a decade. Northern Illinois' midweek win at Toledo suggests the Huskies might be the team to beat, but Akron, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and even the midweek NIU victim Rockets are going to think they have a chance at the MAC Tourney in Cleveland March 10-12.

At Raleigh...

2 North Carolina (15-2, 5) vs. 15 Omaha (12-6, 137)...The Tar Heels haven't lost in over a month (Dec. 12 at Texas) and now have C Kennedy Meeks back from injury. With all hands on deck for one of the few times this season, Roy Williams looks to have a serious Final Four contender. Especially since the Tar Heels are less reliant upon frosh than other national contenders. Keep an eye on Omaha, now eligible for the postseason after completing its transition phase. The explosive Mavs score 85 ppg, and Marlin Briscoe's alma mater is setting the early pace in the Summit, with IPFW, South Dakota State, and North Dakota State likely to give chase.

7 Utah (12-4, 22) vs. 10 Ole Miss (12-4, 46)...Utah might lack some of the sharp edge it had last season when swingman Delon Wright (now NBA Raptors) was on the roster. But good wins over San Diego State, Texas Tech, BYU, Duke, and now Colorado (important to get that one vs. the Buffs after losing at Cal and Stanford in Pac-12 opening weekend action) keep the Utes away from the bubble. Ole Miss is awfully reliant upon G Stefan Moody, but as long as he continues to score at a 24 ppg clip, the Rebs should be able to hang in the field.

At Denver...

3 Xavier (15-1, 3) vs. 14 Belmont (11-6, 131)...The "X" might deserve a higher seed than this, perhaps even on the top line. We have time to move the Musketeers higher, though the depth in the Big East suggests Chris Mack's team takes some torpedo hits along the way in conference play. As for Belmont, it is currently watching nearby Tennessee State set the pace in the OVC. But vet HC Rick Byrd has most of his weapons on hand from last year's Big Dance qualifier, and still gets our nod for the conference tourney held across town at The Jetsons-looking Nashville Municipal Auditorium March 2-5.

6 Baylor (13-3, 37) vs. 11 Ohio State (12-6, 60)...We were thinking about sliding Baylor further down the seeding totem pole until last weekend's win over Iowa State and its impressive follow-up romp past TCU. Now steadied, the Bears can afford to endure some of the inevitable back-and-forth in this year's Big 12 race and likely maintain a mid-level seed. We project a bit with Ohio State and that shrewd HC Thad Matta can coax another Big Dance qualifier out of a precocious but talented group of mostly-young Buckeyes. Last Sunday's loss to Indiana broke a 7-game win streak that included a triumph over Kentucky, which, at the moment, is the result that has OSU in our field.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Chicago)

At Oklahoma City...

1 Oklahoma (14-1, 4) vs. 16 Hampton (8-7, 214)/Wagner (10-5, 207)...As long as Oklahoma stays at or near the top in the Big 12, it is going to have a clear shot at a spot on the top line. Also, note that "The Peake" in Oklahoma City, while a huge regional edge for the Sooners, does not activate the NCAA stay-away role for OU. Only if the sub-regional were conducted in nearby Norman at the Lloyd Noble Center would the Sooners be prohibited from participating at that venue. Ok City is close to Norman, but no restrictions there for OU. One of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games is almost assuredly going to involve a rep from the MEAC, where the Hampton Pirates are currently the only team above .500. Out of the wide-open Northeast, an early projection for Bob Beckel's alma mater, Staten Island-based Wagner. Familiar Northeast rep Robert Morris is off to a very bumpy 3-14 start, and we are not sure the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport is going to be able to rally into contention this season.

8 Wichita State (11-5, 50) vs. 9 Cincinnati (13-5, 90)...Here comes Wichita, which has recovered from a slow start (in which injuries were a major factor) and is now rolling in Missouri Valley play, where it has already dispatched two contenders Evansville and Southern Illinois. By the time we get to "Arch Madness" at St. Louis in the first week of March, we suspect Gregg Marshall's Shockers will have at least locked up an at-large berth, though the Valley could end up a one-bid league if Wichita wins the conference tourney. A matchup vs. Cincinnati would rekindle old memories from days in the Missouri Valley back in the early '60s, when the Shockers and Bearcats had an intense rivalry. A long 37-game win streak by the two-time defending NCAA champion Bearcats was stopped by Wichita in '63 thanks to a memorable effort by the Shockers' Dave Stallworth, who scored 46 points.

At St. Louis...

4 Iowa (12-3, 15) vs. 13 UAB (13-3, 117)...Based upon its late-December win over then-top ranked Michigan State, and a subsequent road win at Purdue when rallying from 19 points down, Fran McCaffery's Hawkeyes have a pretty strong case for a protected seed...at least in mid-January. They'll probably need to at least stay in the top three of the Big Ten to maintain that status into Selection Sunday, but for now we reward Iowa with a four seed. UAB returns most if its lineup from the team that made it to the Big Dance last March and, as a 14 seed, pulled a shocked over Iowa State in the Round of 64. Competition in C-USA likely comes from La Tech, Middle Tennessee, and UTEP, though it will almost surely be a one-bid league this season.

5 Louisville (13-3, 23) vs. 12 Houston (13-3, 121)...The 'Ville will very likely be in contention for a protected seed into Selection Sunday, though there are plenty of land mines in this year's ACC. Note that Rick Pitino's team is prevented from playing in the South Regional, as its KFC-Yum! Center home floor will be the venue for the regional finals. Hoop historians will get a kick if the opening foe is Houston, recalling one of the thrill games in Big Dance history in 1983, the dunk-fest semifinal at the Albuquerque Final Four featuring the Cougars' "Phi Slama Jama" edition. This term, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, though the victim list is not overly impressive, reflected in their subpar RPI.

At St. Louis...

2 Kentucky (13-3, 10) vs. 15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-3, 107)...While this Kentucky edition is not a reprise of the disappointing Nerlens Noel team of a few years ago, it's certainly not last year's wrecking machine, either, as a recent lopsided loss to LSU, and earlier setbacks vs. borderline UCLA and Ohio State, suggest. In the Southland, the team to watch in the first two months has been A&M-Corpus Christi, under the watchful eye of former Rice HC Willis Wilson. The Islanders will eventually have to deal with challenges from Sam Houston State and recent Big Dance noise-maker Stephen F. Austin before getting their NCAA ticket punched.

7 Indiana (14-3, 57) vs. 10 UALR (14-1, 75)...The tortured Tom Crean has stepped clear of most of the banana peels on the Hoosier schedule for the first half of the campaign, and also looks to be moving clear of the hot seat that many believed he was occupying into this season. The Sun Belt is shaping up as a very interesting race between UALR, UT-Arlington, and Georgia State, with some impressive non-Belt wins for each. In the Trojans' case, it's San Diego State and Tulsa. Little Rock and UTA also might have longshot at-large chances, but the Belt has been a one-bid league for a long time, so the March 10-13 tourney in New Orleans should be a doozy.

At Raleigh...

3 Virginia (13-3, 8) vs. 14 Chattanoogs (14-3, 62)...The Cavs have taken some hits already on the ACC road...at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, which has to concern HC Tony Bennett more than a little bit as tougher assignments await on the conference trail. But the Tuesday win over Miami temporarily stopped the bleeding and keeps UVa as a protected seed until further notice. The most impressive SoCon entry has been Chattanooga, now under the direction of first-year HC Matt McCall, a longtime Billy Donovan aide at Florida. (Predecessor and Shaka Smith disciple Will Wade took the VCU job after last season.) Not sure what happened to the Mocs when whipped at Furman, but they'll have a chance to get back on top of the league when facing early frontrunner East Tennessee State this weekend.

6 Southern Cal (15-3, 19) vs. 11 Northwestern (15-3, 100)...It might be time to start taking SC very seriously after the Trojans' recent quality wins over Arizona and UCLA. The Pac-12 is deep and could send up to eight teams to the Dance, and it looks as if HC Andy Enfield can get even with his many critics in the L.A. area and put a smile on the face of AD Pat Haden, who felt some heat the past two years after the Enfield hire. Maybe we're just softies and want to see Northwestern in the Big Dance for the first time. But Chris Collins might have a legit contender in Evanston, and the midweek win over Wisconsin, plus to earlier triumphs on the Big Ten road, suggest that these Wildcats might not be false alarms, as have been several recent NU editions.

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim)

at Providence...

1 Maryland (15-2, 14) vs. 16 Cal State Bakersfield (12-5, 136)...We thought about dropping Maryland a line after its midweek loss at Michigan, but the Terps still have plenty of good wins and the look of a number one seed. So, for the moment, we keep Maryland on the top line, though we will find out like the rest if HC Mark Turgeon is really capable of leading a team into the Final Four. If you've been wondering whatever happened to former Ole Miss and Georgia State HC Rod Barnes, he's been at Cal State Bakersfield for the past few years and now has his best Roadrunner edition. We'll have to wait for the WAC Tourney at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas March 10-12 to see if Barnes can deny Marvin Menzies' New Mexico State of a fifth straight Big Dance visit.

8 Boise State (12-4, 51) vs. 9 Texas (10-6, 25)...Count us among those who have learned to like the current Boise edition, with many familiar faces from last season's team that lost a "First Four" game by a point to Dayton on the Flyers' home floor last year. So far, Leon Rice's well-coached Broncos have not missed the graduated G Derrick Marks, who kept the ball in his hands an awful lot the past few years. Better ball-sharing and teamwork appears evident in the new Bronco edition, which we believe will be in position for an at-large by March, lessening the chance of the Mountain becoming a one-bid league this term. We were probably not going to put Texas in the field until its Tuesday upset over Iowa State. That win, plus an earlier upset over North Carolina, and a road win at Stanford, give Shaka Smart some very good Ws that the Selection Committee will certainly note. Still, Shaka needs to get back C Cam Ridley ASAP to better help navigate the many mine fields of the Big 12.

At Denver...

4 Arizona (13-3, 34) vs. 13 Albany (14-4, 96)...Arizona's chances at a protected seed might have been jarred when the Cats were swept last weekend at UCLA & USC. But UA usually holds serve at Tucson, and its tourney pedigree is good, all suggesting the Cats will have likely earned a four seed by Selection Sunday. The America East race is likely going to be a dog fight between the Great Danes of Albany (with their Scooby-Doo logo) and the Seawolves of Stony Brook, the home team of Strat-o-Matic on Long Island.

5 Duke (14-3, 9) vs. 12 Hawaii (13-2, 97)...Duke's profile is not looking as strong as usual, with not many quality wins (yet) and with another loss this week at Clemson, which caused a lot of spittle to be spewed by Coach K and temporarily dropped the Blue Devils out of protected seed territory. Duke needs C Amile Jefferson to get back in the lineup if it wants to make another deep run in March. We suspect that a lot of Big Dance entries would like to avoid Hawaii, which has emerged as a force under first-year HC Eran Ganot, almost beating Oklahoma at the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. As usual, the Rainbow Warriors' eventual fate will be determined by how they fare on the mainland, where they must play the Big West Tourney at the Anaheim Honda Center March 10-12. Long Beach State and defending champ UC Irvine will be there to pick up any pieces.

At Spokane...

2 West Virginia (15-1, 13) vs. 15 Weber State (11-5, 163)...Its Big Monday win over Kansas solidifies West Virginia as a protected seed, and now we can start talking about the Mounties as a one seed, though plenty of treacherous assignments remain in the Big 12. The Big Sky looks to be a big jumble, so at the moment a measured vote for Weber State, with the best 1-2 punch in the Sky with G Jeremy Senglin and F Joel Bolomboy, combining for 36 ppg. Montana and Idaho look to be the top challengers in the Big Sky; remember, the regular-season champ hosts the conference tourney in the Sky.

7 Gonzaga (13-3, 43) vs. 10 Michigan (13-4, 36)...How can Gonzaga get to play in the sub-regional at the Spokane Arena, about a mile from campus? Well, the Arena is not the Zags' home court, and it is actually Idaho as the sub-regional host school (so it's the Vandals who would be prohibited from playing on this floor). We're still not sure how much this Gonzaga edition has dropped from a year ago with the departures of vet Gs Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr. and 7-0 C Przemek Karnowski still down with a back injury that might sideline him the rest of the season. Meanwhile, we weren't sure about including John Beilein's Michigan in the field until Tuesday's win over Maryland. When healthy (as they weren't a year ago), the Wolverines can be dangerous.

At Brooklyn....

3 Providence (15-2, 16) vs. 14 William & Mary (11-4, 55)...After having a week to stew about blowing a late lead against Marquette, Providence displayed its mettle when rallying from a halftime deficit to win at Creighton this past Tuesday. Which is only the latest of several efforts by Ed Cooley's Friars that compel us to keep them in protected seed territory. Since we put Northwestern into our field for what would be the first time ever, we do the same with William & Mary, which has been knocking on the door in the CAA Tourney the past few years but might have its best chance to finally kick it down at the Royal Farms Arena in Baltimore (called the Civic Center when the NBA Bullets played there in the '60s) March 4-7.

6 South Carolina (15-1, 27) ) vs. 11 Notre Dame (11-5, 48)/Colorado (12-4, 33)... Of course, all of these projections are provisional (not to mention that they don't really count). But the Gamecocks-at-5 is more provisional than most of the recommendations, because South Carolina has started quick and faded before under HC Frank "The Bouncer" Martin. And some SEC sources are wondering if it will be more of the same after the Cocks suffered their first loss when whipped at midweek at Alabama. Mike Brey's Notre Dame does not look the threat it was last season when Jerian Grant (now NBA Knicks) and Pat Connaughton (now NBA Blazers) paced a precision-executing squad, but the Irish might be good enough to slip in near the edge of the bracket, perhaps a play-in game. Tad Boyle's Colorado has fallen a bit from our last report, with losses at Cal and home vs. Utah in its first three Pac-12 games, but the Buffs at least still manage to hang in the field this week.

Last four in: San Diego State, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Colorado.
Last four out: Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Kansas State.
Next four out: Saint Joseph's, Florida State, UCLA, UT-Arlington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spartans (16-2) at Badgers (9-9)

Date: January 17, 2016 1:30 PM EDT

Denzel Valentine hasn't completely recovered from last month's knee surgery. Michigan State is looking to again capitalize on a favorable matchup in its own attempt at a recovery.

The fourth-ranked Spartans attempt to send struggling Wisconsin to a fourth straight loss for the first time in seven years Sunday.

Valentine missed four games after undergoing minor surgery to remove cartilage in his left knee. In two games since returning, the guard has totaled 24 points while making 9 of 23 from the floor, including 4 of 14 from beyond the arc.

That's all well below his season marks, averaging 17.6 points while hitting 44.8 percent from the field and 38.5 from 3-point range.

In his first start in nearly a month Thursday, Valentine scored 14 points while making 5 of 12 field-goal attempts while Michigan State trailed by 22 at the half before falling 76-59 to No. 16 Iowa.

"He's not back to normal," coach Tom Izzo said of Valentine.

The Spartans (16-2, 3-2 in Big Ten) lost 83-70 at Iowa without Valentine on Dec. 29, but followed that with wins over Minnesota, Illinois and Penn State, who are a combined 3-14 in conference play.

They'll try to bounce back at Wisconsin (9-9, 1-4), but they've dropped 10 of their last 12 visits to Madison.

Valentine's 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists weren't enough in an 80-69 overtime loss to the then-sixth-ranked Badgers in last year's Big Ten conference tournament championship.

Michigan State's Bryn Forbes scored 21 points in a 68-61 defeat at Wisconsin last March. However, he matched his season low with two points while dealing with four trouble Thursday after averaging 19.0 during the three-game winning streak.

"Bryn struggles when people are physical," Izzo said.

The Badgers are facing the possibility of enduring their longest losing streak since dropping six straight from Jan. 11-31, 2009.

Frustration is growing after Tuesday's 70-65 loss at Northwestern.

"I'm extremely (ticked) right now with the way things are going," forward Nigel Hayes said after scoring 17 points while six of the other seven Badgers failed to reach double digits. "Got to push the guys and guys will push me. We'll start to do things the right way and get some wins."

Hayes led the way with 25 against the Spartans in last year's conference title game, while Bronson Koenig scored 18 with nine assists.

Koenig managed five points with eight assists while going 2 for 11 from the floor over his three prior meetings with Michigan State.

He had nine points Tuesday while freshman forward Ethan Happ chipped in 12.

Wisconsin is 2-4 since Bo Ryan unexpectedly retired, leaving athletic director Barry Alvarez to turn to assistant Greg Gard.

Gard doesn't seem concerned with having to impress his boss.

"I've never worried about that," he said. "I've said from Day 1 I've always had a one-year contract in 26 years of coaching. My job is to help these guys be the best team they can be this year."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mustangs (16-0) at Green Wave (8-10)

Date: January 17, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

Instead of being a distraction, the latest issue surrounding SMU might further fuel its quest to remain undefeated.

Two days after embattled guard Keith Frazier announced he'll transfer, the No. 10 Mustangs try to match the best road start in program history Sunday against Tulane.

A local Dallas product and former McDonald's All-American, Frazier averaged 11.9 points and 4.4 rebounds in 10 games this season but hadn't played since Dec. 29.

He was deemed academically ineligible after winter break last season and was a prominent figure in the NCAA investigation that led to SMU's postseason ban this year and coach Larry Brown's suspension for the first nine games.

Brown said Friday that Frazier "wanted a fresh start" after spending time away from the program to contemplate his future.

"We're moving on," said Brown, who has worked with seven scholarship players this season. "I've got a bunch of kids in that room that I think we've got to focus our attention to ... and hopefully this turns out great for Keith.

"We're all learning how to adjust, but they're a unique group of kids who care about each other. We know it's not going to get any easier."

Since the Mustangs (16-0, 5-0 American Athletic Conference) learned their season would end March 6 at Cincinnati, they set a goal of going unbeaten while embracing the challenge with an "us against the world" mentality. They never allowed Brown's suspension nor Frazier's academic troubles and recent absence to overshadow the cause.

Off to the school's best start as Division I's only unbeaten, SMU ranks among the top 10 nationally in field-goal (52.1) and 3-point (43.7) percentages as well as average assists (19.0), and it leads the country with a plus-13.1 rebounding margin.

Second in the AAC with 62.3 points allowed per contest, the Mustangs can equal a school-best 5-0 road start set in 1934-35.

"I'm not sure that they have NBA players, like an NBA guy, but they have a lot of really, really good high-level college players," said East Carolina coach Jeff Lebo after Wednesday's 79-55 loss to SMU. "They play so much the right way and share the ball. It's really beautiful to watch."

Ben Moore's 17 points led five players in double figures as SMU shot 52.5 percent, dished out 23 assists and held a 42-22 advantage on the glass Wednesday.

"This win right here solidifies what we've been doing all season," said senior Markus Kennedy, who posted his second double-double with 11 points and 10 boards.

Leading scorer Nic Moore (15.4 points per game) had 18 points with seven assists and Kennedy scored 14 as the Mustangs gained a 41-30 advantage on the boards and held Tulane to 33.3 percent shooting to snap a three-game series road skid with a 66-52 victory in last season's lone meeting.

Though the Green Wave (8-10, 1-4) won 81-70 at lowly South Florida on Tuesday for their first AAC victory, they shot a combined 39.3 percent and allowed 50.5 percent shooting in losing both league home games to UConn and Tulsa by a combined 22 points.

Sophomore Dylan Osetkowski (10.8 points, 9.3 rebounds per game) has totaled 37 points and 28 boards in the last two games. Leading scorer Louis Dabney (13.2), who had 19 points against South Florida, scored a team-high 16 against SMU last season.

Tulane is 0-31 against ranked opponents since beating then-No. 25 North Carolina State on Dec. 22, 1999.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wolverines (13-4) at Hawkeyes (13-3)

Date: January 17, 2016 4:30 PM EDT

Following perhaps Iowa's biggest win of the season, coach Fran McCaffery hopes his team isn't satisfied as it tries to extend its longest Big Ten winning streak in 46 years.

The 16th-ranked Hawkeyes will try to open 5-0 in the conference for the first time in 19 years with their 11th straight league victory Sunday against upset-minded Michigan, which hopes to have star guard Caris LeVert back from a lower left leg injury.

After beating a top-ranked Michigan State team that didn't have star Denzel Valentine on Dec. 29, Iowa not only proved it could beat the No. 4 Spartans with him playing but did it in dominant fashion at East Lansing. The Hawkeyes halted an 18-game losing streak there in Thursday's 76-59 win and led by double digits for the game's final 30 minutes.

Peter Jok came up big with 23 points, and Jarrod Uthoff contributed 15 despite shooting 5 for 18. Jok made three of nine first-half 3-pointers by the Hawkeyes (13-3, 4-0), who led by 22 at halftime en route to their sixth win in a row and first in East Lansing since 1993.

After extending its longest Big Ten win streak since a 14-game run in 1969-70, Iowa hopes to keep pace with Indiana atop the conference by notching its first 5-0 league start since '96-97.

"The key will be to come out Sunday with the same focus and determination," McCaffery said. "We might not make nine (first-half) 3-pointers, but we have to do the other things we do to help our team win. We have the maturity and intelligence to make that happen."

That will be a lot easier to accomplish if LeVert remains sidelined. The Wooden Award nominee, averaging team highs of 17.6 points and 5.2 assists, is day to day.

Without the senior guard, Michigan has won two of its last three games. Following an 87-70 loss at then-No. 20 Purdue on Jan. 7, it stunned No. 3 Maryland 70-67 on Tuesday.

Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman totaled 39 points in his first two games as LeVert's replacement before finishing with just five on three field-goal attempts Tuesday. Zak Irvin led the Wolverines with 22 points and Duncan Robinson added 17.

"If you take a first-round draft pick out of the lineup, they're different, but what's helped them is he was out last year," said McCaffery of LeVert, who dealt with a nagging foot injury over the previous two seasons.

Michigan, which went 12 for 29 from beyond the arc versus Maryland, ranks among the national leaders in 3-point field goals (186) and percentage (42.6). Iowa, however, is one of the best in the country guarding the 3-point line, holding opponents to 29.6 percent.

The Wolverines (13-4, 3-1) have dropped their past two visits to Carver-Hawkeye Arena by a combined 34 points. Making matters worse, the Hawkeyes have won 11 straight home games overall by an average of 19.5 points.

"Any team that can go into Iowa and win, whether it's us or someone else, has a great opportunity to contend for a championship," Michigan coach John Beilein said. "That's what we're trying to do. ... We want to seize this opportunity to play a terrific team."

The Wolverines will try to contain Uthoff, who has averaged 21.7 points over his last three games.

Iowa's Mike Gesell has totaled 47 points in two Big Ten home games, going 22 of 26 from the free-throw line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cavaliers (13-3) at Seminoles (11-5)

Date: January 17, 2016 6:30 PM EDT

(AP) - Virginia coach Tony Bennett responded defiantly before the complete question was even asked about his team's defensive philosophy.

No, he said, No. 13 Virginia has not changed its identity from a defense-minded team to one that focuses more on offense. The coach also said if the Cavaliers want to reach their potential, they need to start playing better defense.

"We're a work in progress, and you always are defensively, but it's so much of a mindset," Bennett said Tuesday night after the Cavaliers (13-3, 2-2 ACC) beat No. 8 Miami 66-58.

They seek a similar performance Sunday night at Florida State after ending a two-game slide in which they'd uncharacteristically allowed Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech to shoot 53 percent from 3-point range.

The Hurricanes shot just 42 percent overall and 27.3 percent from 3-point range. Bennett, though, felt like the Cavaliers were only marginally responsible, allowing too many unimpeded drives to the rim and too many open jumpers that just happened to miss.

"They missed sometimes maybe more than we stopped them, but again, very thankful for the win," he said. "Please don't mistake that because I know we needed it, but I know what's looking us in the eye, and I'm realistic."

His players were well aware that the victory didn't solve all their deficiencies.

"We still have a long way to go," forward Anthony Gill said. "We're not up to par where we need to be defensively yet, but it was a good win for us. Losing these last two games, we weren't playing Virginia basketball and that's not what we do."

Gill had 15 points Tuesday and has scored in double figures in all 16 games. Malcolm Brogdon scored 20 to increase his team-leading average to 17.0, but he's been struggling from 3-point range at 3 for 17 in the last three games.

Bennett made it very clear that any notion his team has figured things out because it won is wrong.

"The finesse game doesn't work when you get into conference play," he said. "It's a physical game. ... Most leagues, you can't get away with just kind of a polite game."

While Virginia still leads the ACC in points allowed at 60.7 per game, Florida State (11-5, 1-3) ranks second to last at 73.6.

The Seminoles went 10-2 in non-conference games - their best start since 2010-11 - but for the second straight season they've lost three of their first four in the ACC.

With four freshmen and a junior college transfer, coach Leonard Hamilton expected inexperience to be more evident, but he's started to see signs that his team might be turning the corner after Wednesday's 85-78 victory at North Carolina State.

"It's hard when you are dealing with guys who have not been there and done it but they are growing and learning," Hamilton said. "Sometimes it is hard to understand how hard it is to play and how difficult the challenge is until you get to conference play. I think they are getting that now."

Malik Beasley (17.1 points per game) and Dwayne Bacon (16.6) continue to be first and second in the ACC in scoring among freshmen, but they have had to adjust to opponents who have scouted every tendency.

Bacon is averaging 13.3 points in conference games, including only 3.0 in the first half while shooting 4 of 24. Beasley is averaging 18.3 points in league play with two of his seven 20-point games, but in two contests he has been held to fewer than five points the first 20 minutes.

"People are gearing their defenses to take certain things away. That's why we can't put the burden on them to produce at an experienced player's rate," Hamilton said.

Florida State has lost five straight and 10 of 11 against ranked teams. It also has a five-game losing streak against Virginia.

Going into Sunday's game, Hamilton has stressed taking the best and highest-percentage shot.

"We've got to be really patient because they are going to bait you into taking uncontested 3s," guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes said. "Sometimes the best thing, especially in a half-court offense, is reversing it one or two more times to get the best look."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles January 17, 6:30 EST

When Virginia Cavaliers and Florida State Seminoles clash on Sunday the teams will look to continue a solid trend for 'Under' gamblers. In the past fifteen meetings the 'Under' has hit 13 times with 2 'Over' including a perfect 7-0 'Under' running the hardwood in Tallahassee. Adding fuel for 'Under gamblers, the Cavaliers have a terrific defense (60.7) and the total has gone 'Under' 11 times with 1 'Over' when FSU is held to 65 or less points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball betting TV guide: Must-watch, must-wager games
By STEVE MERRIL

College basketball is in full swing with conference play shaping the field for the NCAA tournament. Steve Merril has scoured the schedule for the must-watch, must-wager games for each day on the college hoops calendar so that you don’t miss any of the action.

Sunday - Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles (ESPN-U)

Virginia and Florida State is a clash of styles. The Cavaliers play at an extremely slow pace while the Seminoles want to play fast while getting up and down the court. Virginia has a terrific defense, but they’ve been vulnerable to quick and efficient offensive teams this season. Florida State’s defense has been torched by teams that play a similar style to them, but Virginia does not possess an explosive offense, so the Seminoles are not overmatched in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 22
By Chris David

Week 20 & 21 Recap

The first week of action in 2016 watched favorites go 6-2 and the most impressive win came from Chelsea, who blanked Crystal Palace 3-0 on the road. The Blues certainly looked like their old form and will likely be watched in the second-half. The underdogs that cashed were West Ham United (+275) and Norwich City (+250) as they posted home victories against Liverpool and Southampton respectively. Total bettors watched the second-half start off with a 5-5 mark.

This past Tuesday, underdogs kicked off Matchday 21 with a pair of wins as West Ham (+245) ran past Bournemouth 3-1 on the road and Aston Villa (+240) blanked Crystal Palace 1-0 at home, which was its first win since the opening week of the season. While it wasn’t upset, New Castle United did open up some eyes with a 3-3 draw (+265) against Manchester United at home.

Wednesday’s mid-week action watched the favorites and underdogs go 2-2 and the biggest surprise took place at Liberty Stadium as Sunderland (+375) upset Swansea City 4-2 after trailing 2-1 at the half. There were three draws posted as well, which included the great back-and-forth result (3-3) between Arsenal and Liverpool. That game went ‘over’ early in the first-half and helped the ‘over’ go 6-4 in the last 10 EPL games.

Including those 20 results, favorites have gone 90-60 with 60 draws this season. The ‘over’ has gone 11-9 in the first two weeks of 2016 but the ‘under’ still owns a slight edge (106-99-5) this season.

Manchester United at Liverpool (Sunday, NBCSN, 9:00 a.m. ET)

The EPL Game of the Week takes place from Anfield this weekend as Liverpool (+125) will look to knock off Manchester United (+220) at home. The last eight meetings have watched somebody come away with three points and more of those victories have gone to United, six of them in total.

In early September, Manchester surged past Liverpool 3-1 at Old Trafford with all four goals coming in the second-half.

A lot of has changed since that game, in particular Liverpool’s manager. The club hired Jurgen Klopp in October and the team has gone 5-3-4 as manager and that includes a 3-2-1 mark at home. The Reds enter this game unbeaten in their last four (2-2-0) but they’ve surrendered five goals in the pair of draws.

Liverpool is banged up in all areas and five key players (Daniel Sturridge, Dejan Lovren, Martin Skrtel, Philippe Coutinho, Divock Origi) will miss Sunday due to hamstring injuries.

Louis van Gaal’s “seat” is still considered hot at United but a win would certainly lower the temperature. The Red Devils have gone 1-2-0 in their last three league games but only earning one point (3-3) at New Castle United this past Tuesday wasn’t a good result.

United has gone 4-3-4 on the road this season while getting outscored 16-15, which has helped the ‘over’ go 7-4 in away games.

Arsenal at Stoke City (Sunday, NBCSN, 11:00 a.m. ET)

Arsene Wenger and Arsenal (-110) stay on the road this Sunday as they visit Britannia Stadium, and they’ve had trouble at this venue. The Gunners are 0-2-3 in their last five visits and Stoke City (+320) has won four of its last five at home this season and that includes three shutouts against the likes of Chelsea, Man City and Man United.

The Gunners have been very sound on the road (6-2-3) and have netted 21 goals but have surrendered 15, which is the second highest amongst teams sitting in the top half of the table. Plus, seven of those away goals have come in the last two games.

Stoke City netted a 3-1 win over Norwich this past Wednesday at home and that was most goals scored by them at Britannia. Prior to this effort, they only managed 10 goals in the first nine games at home.

Arsenal has seen the ‘over’ go 7-4 in its road games but Stoked has watched the low side cash in six of 10 games at home.

Fearless Predictions

One lousy goal cost us and that result turned into a negative weekend (-250) and kept the bankroll in the danger zone ($2,720). This week’s predictions is spread out over the three days.

Straight – Over 2 ½ (-115) Everton-Chelsea – 3 Units

Straight – Over 2 ½ (+100) West Ham United-New Castle United – 1 Unit

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-130) Manchester United-Liverpool – 2 Units

Straight – Manchester United (+220) over Liverpool – 2 Units

Straight – Swansea City (+145) over Watford – 2 Units

Parlay – Over 2 ½ Chelsea-Everton, Manchester United (+220), Arsenal (-110) – 1 Unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 81
By Brian Edwards

T.J. Dillashaw will put his bantamweight strap on the line for the third time against former 135-pound kingpin Dominick Cruz in Sunday’s main event for UFC Fight Night 81 in Boston at the TD Garden. The 13-fight card will get started at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with five bouts on UFC Fight Pass.

Then at 8:00 p.m. Eastern around the same time the Pittsburgh-Denver NFL game will be concluding, the four-fight prelims will begin on Fox Sports 1. The main card is also on FS1 and will start at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

Dillashaw (12-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has won four in a row, including three straight knockouts and a pair wins over Renan Barao, who was previously considered one of the top 2-3 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Dillashaw put Barao’s standing to bed, however, stunning him with a fifth-round KO victory at UFC 173 on May 24 of 2014. TJD hooked up his betting backers as a +500 underdog.

In the first scheduled rematch at UFC 177, Barao had to withdraw the day before the fight after being hospitalized for issues related to his weight cut. Joe Soto, who was originally scheduled to make his UFC debut on the same card in the prelims, filled in for Barao and gave a solid effort before being finished by TJD with a fifth-round KO.

The rematch with Barao went down this past summer at UFC on Fox 16. Dillashaw dominated the whole way and scored another KO win over the Brazilian just 35 seconds into Round 4.

Cruz (20-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) has fought just once since Oct. 1 of 2011 due to a brutal rash of injuries. In preparation for a third fight against Urijah Faber at UFC 148, Cruz sustained a torn ACL on May 7 of 2012. Then on Dec. 3, Cruz was forced to undergo another ACL surgery after his body rejected one from a cadaver.

More than two years later, Cruz was finally set to return at UFC 169 to take on Barao, the interim bantamweight champ at the time. However, Dana White revealed in early January of 2014 that Cruz was being stripped of his belt after tearing his groin.

The long road back to the Octagon wouldn’t take place for ‘The Dominator’ until Sept. 27 of 2014 at UFC 178. Cruz faced Takeya Mizugaki, who brought a five-fight winning streak into the cage. Cruz wasted no time closing the show, needing only 61 seconds to KO Mizugaki and earn a $50,000 bonus for Performance of the Night.

Cruz had announced his return with authority, but the good vibes wouldn’t last long. After being scheduled to face TJD for the belt he never lost in the Octagon, Cruz suffered yet another setback by tearing the ACL in his other knee. This development kept him on the sidelines for all of 2015.

As of early Saturday night, most books had Dillashaw installed as a -140 favorite, with Cruz listed at +120 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $120). The total was 4.5 rounds (‘over’ -190, ‘under’ +165).

Prediction: Although TJD has been dynamite in the cage lately, I’m not sure where his head is going into this fight. Dillashaw has been a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, the Sacramento camp started by Faber, who mentored TJD for years and was one of his best friends. Duane Ludwig became the head coach at Team Alpha Male and developed a close bond with TJD. However, Ludwig and Faber had their differences and Ludwig parted with the camp and moved to Denver in 2014. Dillashaw remained in Sacramento but would also travel to Denver to train with Ludwig, who continued to work TJD’s corner at this fights. But in late 2015, Dillashaw decided to permanently move to Denver to work with Ludwig exclusively. This didn’t sit well with Faber, who banned TJD from Team Alpha Male. Since then, there has been a major rift between Faber and Dillashaw, who has basically been cut off from his teammates and friends that have been with him his entire career. Now this isn’t the basis of my entire handicap by any means, but I do think that like Ronda Rousey going into her fight with Holly Holm, Dillashaw has been dealing with distractions galore. At least from my view, he has also allowed Cruz to get into his head. Cruz is brimming with confidence and has been taking it to Dillashaw verbally. And remember, Cruz is still only 30 years old. His body has dealt with injuries, but it also hasn’t been taking a beating. He’s fresh, confidence and hasn’t tasted defeat since Faber choked him out in a World Extreme Cagefighting showdown in 2007. I like Cruz as a +120 underdog for four units. In addition, I like ‘under’ 4.5 rounds for a +160 payout for 1.5 units.

In the co-main event, Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis will make his first Octagon appearance since losing the lightweight title to Rafael dos Anjos in a brutal five-round beating.

Most books had Pettis (18-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) listed as a -340 favorite versus Eddie Alvarez. The total was 2.5 rounds (-120 for the ‘over,’ even money to the ‘under’).

Since losing his UFC debut by decision to Clay Guida at TUF 13 Finale, Pettis ripped off five straight wins over Jeremy Stephens, Joe Lauzon, Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez. He beat Henderson for a second time in his career to win the 155-pound belt at UFC 164. Pettis submitted Henderson late in the first round via armbar.

Eddie Alvarez (MMA, 1-1 UFC) will make his third cage appearance for the promotion. The former Bellator lightweight champ lost his debut to Cerrone by decision at UFC 178, but he bounced back to win a split decision over Melendez at UFC 188.

Prediction: I think Pettis will get the victory, but he’s entirely too expensive to back at the straight price. I’ll go with one unit on Pettis to win by TKO/KO for a +222 return (at 5Dimes). In a heavyweight showdown, Travis Browne (17-3-1 MMA, 8-3-1 UFC) will make his 13th career walk to the Octagon to take on Matt Mitrione, who is in the last fight of his UFC contract.

Since winning three fights in a row over top-notch competition by way of first-round knockouts, including victories over Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett, Browne has dropped two of his last three fights.

He was dominated for five rounds in a title-eliminator bout against Fabricio Werdum at UFC on Fox 11. He bounced back to KO Brendan Schaub late in the first round at UFC 181, but he was KO’d for just the second time in his career against Andrei Arlovski. The fight with Arlovski was epic. The former champ hurt Browne early in the first round with a combination. Arlovski continued to get the best of the exchanges for most of the round. Another series of punches and an elbow to the face staggered Browne and had him in all sorts of trouble.

However, much like in his fight with Overeem, Browne became a desperate man. And desperate fighters are dangerous ones. In what was essentially a Hail Mary pass, Browne threw a huge right hook with his back against the fence. It connected perfectly and floored Arlovski.

Sensing his opponent was now hurt, Browne landed a big hammerfist but he was still wobbly and missed a second punch because he was so off balance. Arlovski battled his way back to his feet and gathered himself. Browne was still struggling to keep his legs under him, but he was back in the fight.

Only for a moment, though. On the next big exchange, Arlovski caught Browne against with another combination and another big elbow. One more punch was all referee Herb Dean needed to see to call of the carnage with 19 ticks remaining in Round 1.

Mitrione (9-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC) saw his three-fight winning streak snapped his last time out when he was submitted (guillotine choke) by Ben Rothwell less than two minutes into the opening stanza in New Orleans this past summer.

Mitrione began his career with five consecutive victories before losing a unanimous decision to Cheick Kongo at UFC 137. He lost a second straight bout when Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson KO’d him in December of 2012.

Mitrione’s only other loss came by first-round submission against Brendan Schaub at UFC 165. Mitrione, a former NFL player who played college football at Purdue, has victories over the likes of Shawn Jordan, Kimbo Slice, Derrick Lewis, Gabriel Gonzalez and Joey Beltran.

Prediction: I don’t eat ‘chalk’ very often, but I think -150 is a completely reasonable price to risk on Browne. I’ll take Browne for one unit. Other plays: Give me one unit on Ed Herman (+200) vs. Tim Boetsch, who is 2-5 in his last seven fights. I’ll also go with Daron Cruickshank at +220 over Paul Felder in a lightweight showdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report
By The Sports Xchange

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Doubtful: RB Will Tukuafu (hamstring)
--Probable: DE Michael Bennett (toe), RB Marshawn Lynch (abdomen), TE Luke Willson (concussion)
CAROLINA PANTHERS
--Out: RB Fozzy Whittaker (ankle)
--Questionable: WR Ted Ginn (knee)
--Probable: DE Kony Ealy (illness)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS at DENVER BRONCOS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: WR Antonio Brown (concussion), RB DeAngelo Williams (foot)
Questionable: RB Will Johnson (hamstring), QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder)
--Probable: S Will Allen (not injury related), S Robert Golden (shoulder), LB James Harrison (not injury related), DE Cameron Heyward (back), LB Ryan Shazier (knee), TE Matt Spaeth (not injury related), LB Vince Williams (hamstring)
DENVER BRONCOS
--Questionable: QB Brock Osweiler (knee)
--Probable: TE Owen Daniels (knee, knee), LB Todd Davis (shoulder), G Max Garcia (groin), CB Chris Harris (shoulder), DE Malik Jackson (illness), QB Peyton Manning (foot), LB Brandon Marshall (ankle), LB Von Miller (illness), G Robert Myers (illness), S Darian Stewart (hamstring), RB Juwan Thompson (illness), S T.J. Ward (ankle), LB DeMarcus Ware (knee).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

There were no real surprises at the Eclipse Awards last night as Triple Crown winner American Pharoah won Horse of the Year and top three-year-old while his trainer Bob Baffert picked up some hardware (after dropping it) and owner Zayat Stables picked up a pair of Eclipse Awards for top owner and breeder.

American Pharoah was the unanimous winner of Horse of the Year as expected. There was a surprise in the two-year-old filly category as Songbird came up one vote short of being unanimous. One voter cast their ballot for Catch a Glimpse, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

Javier Castellano took home the award for top jockey, while Tyler Gaffalione won the top apprentice.

Here are the winners and voting:

Two-Year-Old Male (Name, First-Place Votes)
Nyquist, 255; Mohaymen, 3; Voter Abstentions, 3.

Two-Year-Old Filly
Songbird, 260, Catch a Glimpse, 1.

Three-Year-Old Male
American Pharoah, 261.

Three-Year-Old Filly
Stellar Wind, 108; I’m a Chatterbox, 47; Found (IRE), 46; Lady Eli, 34; Lovely Maria, 12; Curalina, 11; Include Betty, 2; Voter Abstentions, 1.

Older Dirt Male
Honor Code, 126; Liam’s Map, 95; Tonalist, 14; Effinex, 12; Shared Belief, 9; California Chrome, 3. Voter Abstentions, 2.

Older Dirt Female
Beholder, 256; Stopchargingmaria, 4; Sheer Drama, 1.

Male Sprinter
Runhappy, 255; Private Zone, 2; Rock Fall, 2; Mongolian Saturday, 1; Secret Circle, 1.

Female Sprinter
La Verdad, 98; Wavell Avenue, 90; Lady Shipman, 41; Cavorting, 19; Unbridled Forever, 5; Ageless, 1; Birdonthewire, 1; Fantastic Style, 1; Voter Abstentions, 5.

Male Turf Horse
Big Blue Kitten, 134; Golden Horn (GB), 63; The Pizza Man, 41; Flintshire, 18; Chiropractor, 1; Grand Arch, 1; Voter Abstentions, 3.

Female Turf Horse
Tepin, 211; Found (IRE), 38; Stephanie’s Kitten, 8; Lady Eli, 2; Curvy (GB), 1; Voter Abstentions, 1.

Steeplechase Horse
Dawalan (FR), 165; Bob Le Beau (IRE), 47; African Oil (FR), 2; Demonstrative, 2; Grinding Speed, 1; Voter Abstentions, 44.

Owner
Zayat Stables, 220; Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, 26; Midwest Thoroughbreds, Inc., 6; Reddam Racing, 2; Godolphin Racing, 1; Voter Abstentions, 6.

Breeder
Zayat Stables, 190; Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, 39; Darley, 13; WinStar Farm, 5; Adena Springs, 4; Spendthrift Farm, 1; Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, 1; Voter Abstentions, 8.

Trainer
Bob Baffert, 200; Todd Pletcher, 44; Chad Brown, 12; Karl Broberg, 1; Jerry Hollendorfer, 1; Voter Abstentions, 3.

Jockey
Javier Castellano, 184; Victor Espinoza, 70; Joe Bravo, 1; Pedro Monterrey, Jr., 1; Irad Ortiz, Jr., 1; Joel Rosario, 1; John Velazquez, 1; Voter Abstentions, 2.

Apprentice Jockey
Tyler Gaffalione, 149; Eric Cancel, 63; Angel Cruz, 9; Ashley Broussard, 6; David Lopez, 3; Jorge Robles, 1; Voter Abstentions, 30.

Horse of the Year
American Pharoah, 261.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 OClm $25,000N1X (12:35 ET)
#1 Decent 8-5
#4 Doctor J Dub 15-1
#8 Little Baltar 12-1
#11 Red Guard 3-1

Analysis: Decent set the early fractions and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish at Belmont Park going six furlongs against Alw-1 company. The runner up Speeding Comet came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing on Oct. 11. Our top pick now comes back off a four-month break here for the Kenneally barn that is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. The price may end up light but he has worked sharply at Palm Meadows and the cut back to five furlongs should suit him.

Doctor J Dub set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out against $16,000 claimers. The loss snapped a three race winning streak against claimers. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Borell barn that just recently started training for Drawing Away Stable. He has won 4 of 8 on turf and while he steps up into a tougher spot he should end up a generous price.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,8,11
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,8,11 / 1,2,4,8,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 OClm $75,000N1X (4:35 ET)
#3 Fortun 8-1
#2 Miss Inclusive 3-1
#4 Broadway Gal 4-1
#7 Dearest 7-2

Analysis: Fortun was a good looking maiden winner for a $40,000 tag in her second career start at Keeneland and then caught a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last out at this level in her first go against winners. She did show some late interest and was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. Three runners have exited that race to win next out. He makes his first start here for the Tomlinson barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim.

Miss Inclusive made a mild late run to finish third last out at this level here over a wet track in her first start against winners, sent off as the 4-5 chalk. She was an impressive maiden winner two back in her debut at Laurel Park with the third and seventh place finisher coming out of that race to graduate next out. She does not need to move forward all that much off her last effort to win against this group.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $67,000N1X (3:50 ET)
#9 Special Ops 5-1
#8 Sioux 4-1
#5 Wild Zambezi 6-1
#2 Jack O Liam 5-1

Analysis: Special Ops ships back from Florida where the gelding has been working at Payson for his first go since last June. The Clement barn is 25% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The gelding broke his maiden on the inner track going two turns last March off a 3 1/2 month break. He has beaten winners, taking a $50,000 starter allowance race in his last outing in the slop. He fits well here and is working as if he is going to come back running.

Sioux was the beaten favorite last out, stumbling and getting bumped around at the break and finishing evenly in a fifth place finish. he earned a solid number three back beating state bred Alw-2 foes. The Nevin barn has been on the quiet side the past few months but this guy fits here if he runs back to his effort three back.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 2,5,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 2,5,8,9 / 2,4,5,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #4 Doctor J Dub 15-1
R1: #8 Little Baltar 12-1
R2: #4 Flashy Zee 8-1
R3: #1 Key West Dude 10-1
R5: #2 Sweet Elegance 12-1
R5: #1 Aly Cruise 8-1
R5: #4 Skirts on Fire 8-1
R6: #4 Heavenly View 8-1
R6: #10 Show Me 8-1
R7: #3 Nauset Beach 8-1
R9: #3 Fortun 8-1
R10: #3 Never Give It 8-1
R10: #5 Jaiden’s Best 12-1
R11: #10 Lucky Greatness 20-1
R11: #15 Miss Niagara 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Sunday 1/17 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Best Bet (0 - 2 / $0.00): TRIPLE LANE MELODY (9th)

Spot Play: SHADY BAY (4th)


Race 1

(6) B R FLYING DALI will look to make it three straight and four of seven against similar. (1) KRUSTY THE CLOWN put in a nice mile being used twice last start getting the victory; threat. (5) MAKE IT WORK veteran pacer will be firing with a purpose early and looks to be in line for an excellent trip up close.

Race 2

In a wide open field full of question marks, (2) TEAM LEADER is well bred and makes his career debut off a decent qualifier. (1) LEAVING A LEGACY has room to improve second start off a nice learning experience in his first mile. (6) FOOLISH BEHAVIOR had some sneaky late pace last start off of a really slow middle half; threat.

Race 3

(5) PINSTRIPE PLAYER owns wins against much better and should be sharper after needing his last start. (4) VIN might own the biggest burst of speed in the field but is prone to miscues. (1) MY MINI SNICKERS is facing much weaker with the best post; threat.

Race 4

In the toughest race to handicap on the card, (8) SHADY BAY has flashed some ability despite the poor record and fits in nicely with this bunch. (1) NUBIAN PRINCE improved in the recent qualifier and should offer a big price against a suspect group. (6) WEDDLE BY WEDDLE mare might have an excuse on the off track last start but has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 5

(10) MAJOR WAY raced gamely last start just getting picked off late. The pacer gets a tough starting post but finds a weak bunch. (2) BELL VALLEY TIGER owns a decent brush but needs to be timed right and can only be used one time in the mile. (4) DARN SKIPPIE might be able to hit the ticket at a price and showed a decent close last start.

Race 6

(6) PEACELOVEPACE pacing mare should be much closer turning for home and can pick up the pieces with a good setup. (8) SUN DREAM made the most money in the field last year and has a good history of winning at this level. (3) BETTOR'S BABE probably needs a start off a month but has been competitive against similar.

Race 7

In another tough race to gauge, (6) TIMMYLYN was sharp when last seen at Balmoral. The pacer needs a smooth trip for a piece. (5) LOVETHEWAYOULOOK will likely take heavy tote action looking to make it three straight but faces tougher; use caution. (9) OUR MISS LILY gets a very tough post and will need to find a way into the race.

Race 8

(6) LITTLE MERMAID N takes a monster drop down in class against much weaker. (5) THE REAL TONE mare is coming out of the same barn as the top choice and will likely offer the better price. (1) WESTERN DAME gets the best post in against a field full of question marks; threat.

Race 9

(4) TRIPLE LANE MELODY if the mare brings her 'A' game she will be tough to beat against this bunch. (6) CENALTAFIRECRACKER gets sent out for a barn that has had some nice recent winners. (9) CALL ME UP is another horse with questions coming off a layoff. The pacing mare shows some decent efforts against tougher.

Race 10

(6) MR CANDYMAN was a game winner last out and can repeat with a similar effort. (9) ROCK HOLLYWOOD beat a decent group last week and will probably offer the best price of the contenders. (3) THE MASTER gelding has room to improve with an acclimating start over the track under his belt.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Sunday 1/17 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 9 - 22 / $71.20 BEST BETS: 1 - 2 / $4.10

Best Bet: TRIPLE MAJOR (11th)

Spot Play: CROSBY’S CLAM BAKE (9th)


Race 1

(4) WATKINS made a nice move to the front only to be outgamed late in a needed start; veteran had some nice moments here last season and he can take this with any sort of live trip. (1) MISTRESS VALENTINE is another shipper from The Meadows who looks like a good fit here; Bartlett drives. (2) HEADSAREGONNA TURN was an upset winner last week after sitting a live pocket trip.

Race 2

(10) EXTRACURRICULAR came up a bit short on the front end last week, snapping his winning streak in the process. Veteran can resume winning ways today as Sears' choice. (6) MONROE COUNTY took the money and totally turned it around last out; clear contender. (2) BORN TO FIGHT steps up looking for two straight and the Ford trainee has back class.

Race 3

(2) SKATES N PLATES has shown renewed speed and energy since switching to the Andrew Harris barn; trotter may look to take these the distance. (1) FOR YOU ALMOSTFREE is clearly better than he's been showing recently. (5) MUGSHOT JESS was a winner when last seen at this NW12000 level.

Race 4

(6) WESTERN CREDIT raced pretty well last week considering he was 99/1. Veteran finally showed some forward progress since the Virgil Morgan, Jr. claim and he can show more today. (8) OH MY MAGIC has done nothing wrong in her two starts since shipping in for Burke. (9) ZORGWIJK NOVA flashed good speed from the eight hole, then got shuffled last week; threat if she could overcome the second tier.

Race 5

(1) PARKHILL LANCELOT looked like a winner every step of that race last week and he faces much of the same today; repeats. (3) ALEXANDER LUKAS drops, lands a decent post and should certainly be heard from. (6) TAC'S DELIGHT has burned serious money in his last two and may be tailing off after a nice run.

Race 6

(2) FOLLOW MY DREAMS picks up a big driver change to Jordan Stratton and faces a field with no standouts; worth a look. (8) COLD CERTIFIED returns from Canada and if you go back a couple of seasons this trotter had some really good local races. (7) BAS J was a game second last week and now faces cheaper; post and lack of early speed may present a problem.

Race 7

(4) TRADING PLACES raced pretty well last week, which was a much improved effort. Seems like some of these Banca trotters who have been bad at this added distance have been showing some life recently. (10) CAMBRIDGE and (9) CASCARA ROSA both fit nicely at this level but both will need a trip coming from the second tier.

Race 8

(5) NOT AFRAID was super last week after doing much of the work; Takter trainee is certainly capable of repeating, and may actually be a halfway decent price. (3) DOT DOT DOT DASH was flying home to make it interesting last out; will she be overbet from this improved post? (6) RED HOT HERBIE was used hard battling and gave way; still a threat here.

Race 9

(3) CROSBY'S CLAM BAKE fired hard and broke on the lead, then did well to catch the pack last week in his local return; he can be forwardly placed again today. (2) FLYHAWK EL DURADO broke last out but had some decent prior efforts. (5) CLEMENTINE DREAM may have won last week but blew up early stretch on the lead; give her another look.

Race 10

(1) I SCOOT SAM was solid last week for the Harris barn, which has been sharp early in this new year; repeats. (3) FRIDAYNIGHTFLIGHT was in a poor spot throughout in last; he will be closer from this post. (2) BIG BAD BOSSMAN just missed after sitting a trip in a good bounce-back effort.

Race 11

(2) TRIPLE MAJOR finished with pace in his local return but was backed up with bad cover; Kokinos trainee gets post relief and finds a suspect field. (4) RING WARRIOR was outbattled in the slop last week and it didn't help that Bartlett dropped his whip; Banca trainee will be tighter today. (7) WAYWARD SON has had success with better than these in the past; consider at a price underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Blind Devotion, 5-1
(9th) Howie's Tiz, 3-1

Fair Grounds (2nd) Carmen's Rose, 7-2
(5th) Trinni Heart, 6-1

Golden Gate Fields (5th) Moogie Woogie, 6-1
(6th) Prickly Joe, 5-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Gracious Humor, 7-2
(6th) Bella Figura, 4-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Hard Drive, 9-2
(8th) Tribal Journey, 4-1


Oaklawn Park (3rd) Roma Road, 7-2
(4th) Bling It On Baby, 8-1


Santa Anita (5th) Jazzie Cat, 4-1
(6th) Exemplar, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (1st) Crocus Hill, 5-1
(8th) All for Us, 7-2


Turf Paradise (6th) Bodie Bojangles, 8-1
(7th) Co Ferment, 4-1


Turfway Park (3rd) Nimble Tiger, 6-1
(8th) Howling Wolf, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's six-pack

-- Get well soon to ESPN's Chris Mortenen, who has taken a leave of absence so he can get treatment for throat cancer. We obviously wish him well.

-- Orioles signed Chris Davis for seven years, $161M. Good deal for both sides.

-- Royals signed Ian Kennedy for five years, $70M. Pitchers rake in the cash.

-- Scumweasel agent Scott Boras did roughly $300M in deals in a 48-hour span late this week. 4% of $300M is $12M or so-- pretty good week's work.

-- Tennessee Titans made interim coach Mike Mularkey their full-time coach.

-- Our thoughts and prayers to singer Celine Dion, who lost her husband to cancer this week, then lost her brother to the same disease 48 hours later.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

STEELERS @ BRONCOS 4:40 PM

Take: STEELERS +7.5

Okay, let’s get the analysis part of this out of the way quickly. The Steelers have been less than spectacular down the stretch, losing to a bad Ravens team, unimpressively getting past the pathetic Browns, and basically getting gifted a playoff win last week by a couple of mentally impaired Bengals.

The Broncos really haven’t been notably better of late. They actually came close to blowing the #1 AFC seed against the Chargers, and it’s not like this team has been sensational at all over the past month or so. The Denver defense is dynamite, no doubt about it. The offense isn’t and I’ll be shocked if the Steelers don’t commit to stopping the run and daring Peyton Manning to beat them through the air.

I don’t need to waste space on all the Pittsburgh injuries. They’re definitely hurting and yes, there has to be some real question about how well Ben Roethlisberger can throw the ball with the banged up shoulder. That said, if he can stay on the field for the entire game, Big Ben is not a guy I want to try and beat, especially by a margin.

I’m playing this on what I see as value. Even inputting all the absences from the Pittsburgh lineup, I can’t make this any higher than Broncos -6.5. Getting on the other side of a very key NFL number is also really enticing for me.

There’s one other aspect in play here that I like from the Pittsburgh perspective. The Steelers lost last week at Cincinnati, but they’re still playing. Oh, I know the scoreboard says they won and obviously, that’s why they are still playing. But considering the series of miracles this team had to get last week to survive, this amounts to the ultimate free roll for the Steelers.

If Ben Roethlisberger is unable to stay on the field and the Steelers have to turn to Landry Jones, I’m probably in trouble. If Peyton Manning suddenly relocates even a semblance of his Hall of Fame caliber past form, I’m probably in trouble. In other words, I can’t say I’m going to be stunned if the well-rested Broncos feast on their weary guests and win this with ease. But getting more than a TD is enough to get me to the window, and I’m going to grab those points with the Steelers.