Jack Jones
Cowboys vs Eagles
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5
The Dallas Cowboys literally have nothing to play for this week. They wanted to stay sharp last week against the Lions, so they didn't rest their starters. But the reports are that they will rest their starters this week and give their backups the majority of the playing time. That's why we've seen this line move to the Eagles as 5.5-point favorites, and I don't think it's enough.
I like the fact that the Eagles haven't quit. Each of their last three games against the Redskins, Ravens and Giants have all gone right down to the wire, and they easily could have won all three. That's even more impressive when you consider that those three teams were all playing hard to try and make the playoffs, while the Eagles were simply playing for pride.
Now the Eagles are going to want revenge from an overtime loss in Dallas in their first meeting this season. They actually led that game by double-digits in the second half before losing in overtime. And getting them at home this time around should make all the difference.
The Eagles have been a great bet at home this season, going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.0 points per game. They have even handled playoff-bound teams like the Steelers, Falcons and Giants in three of their victories, and they were the team that handed the Vikings their first loss following their 5-0 start. Their defense has been especially good at home, giving up just 15.9 points per game on the season.
The Cowboys have a plethora of injuries on defense. That is where guys are going to be rested the most. You know rookie QB Carson Wentz wants to finish the season the way he started it, which was red hot. And I think he'll have the opportunity to do just that by having one of his best games of the season. Even a healthy Dallas defense has given up 67.5% completions and 263 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Now they will be even worse off with backups getting most the playing time.
Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Dallas is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games during the last two weeks of the regular season. And the Cowboys are on a short week here after playing on Monday, adding to the reasons to fade them. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Bet the Eagles Sunday.