Sunday 1/1/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NCAAB

Sunday’s games

Michigan is 10-3 vs schedule #203, but they lost only two road games, at South Carolina by 18, at UCLA by 15. Wolverines are 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win over SMU on a neutral floor. Michigan is playing 4th-slowest tempo in country; they’re shooting 37.9% on arc. Hawkeyes are #343 experience team; they’re 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 14 at home over Iowa State. Iowa won its last four games with Michigan, beating Wolverines by 11-10 points LY. Michigan lost its last three visits here, by 16-18-11 points.

Ohio State won its last six games with Illinois, winning last two visits here by 9-5 points. OSU swept Illini LY, winning two games by total of seven points. Buckeyes are 10-3 vs schedule #303; they’re 4-3 in last seven games, splitting two true road games, losing at Virginia by a hoop, beating Navy by 10. Buckeyes are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with only win over Providence by 5. Illinois lost its Big 14 opener by 25 at Maryland; they’re #41 experience team that is 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #53 VCU.

Illinois State won its last four games with Loyola, all by 8 or less points, winning 48-45/78-70 in last two visits here. Redbirds are 1-3 in true road games, with only win at Hawai’i; 2-1 vs teams in top 125, with loss 80-71 at TCU. Illinois State has #13 eFG% defense; they’re #95 experience team that won MVC opener by 12 over Evansville. Loyola got upset at Drake in its MVC opener; their last three games were all decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Ramblers are forcing turnovers 22.1% of time, have #7 eFG%, but they lost last two games, by 4 points each.

Maryland is 4-0 vs Nebraska in Big 14 games, winning 69-65 in only one played here- they beat Cornhuskers 97-86 in conference tourney LY. Terrapins are 13-1 vs schedule #226; they’re 4-1 vs top 100 teams, with only loss by 14 to Pittsburgh. Maryland is #319 experience team that is 6-0 in games decided by six or less points- they turn ball over 20.3% of time. Nebraska pulled big upset at Indiana in its Big 14 opener; Huskers are 7-6 vs schedule #7- they’re 1-2 in true road games, losing by hoop at Clemson by 17 at Kansas.

St John’s was 5-7 before they won by 33 at Syracuse, then upset Butler in last two games; Red Storm is shooting 40.2% on arc (#16)- they’re 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 92-86 at Minnesota. DePaul lost its last three games, scoring 61 pts/game, but they only lost by 3 at Villanova. Blue Demons are 7-7 vs schedule #329; they’re shooting 30.5% on arc, are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 16-9-3 points. Home side won last seven St John’s-DePaul games; Red Storm lost last three visits here, by 2-4-8 points.

Butler lost last game at St John’s, then had plane troubles on way home; Bulldogs are 11-2 vs schedule #45, with seven top 100 wins. Butler is forcing turnovers 22.1% of time- they have #17 eFG%. Providence scored 61.5 pts/game in losing its last two games after a 10-2 start; Friars are 0-3 in true road games, with losses by 12-26-5 points. Friars are 6-1 vs Butler in Big East play; they swept Bulldogs LY, winning by 8-3-14 points, with a 74-60 win in Big East tourney. Friars are 3-0 in Hinkle Fieldhouse, winning by 6-4-8 points.

Seton Hall swept Marquette LY by 20-17 points, after losing 12 of previous 14 series games. Golden Eagles won three of last four visits here. Pirates are 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win by 3 over South Carolina. Seton Hall is shooting only 61.5% on foul line (#331); they won six of last seven games overall. Marquette is 10-3 vs schedule #224; they won by 10 at Georgia in only true road game. Eagles are shooting 40.5% on arc, have #10 eFG%- they’re 3-3 vs top 100 teams, won Big East opener by 10 over Georgetown.

Northern Iowa is 5-7 vs schedule #11; they over-scheduled a bit, losing seven of last nine games. UNI scored 50.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re shooting only 41.6% inside arc. Panthers are 0-3 in true road games, losing by 22-8-43 points. Evansville is 1-4 vs teams in top 125, with only win over #92 Boise State; Purple Aces lost Valley opener by 12 at Illinois State. Panthers won their last four games with Evansville; they won two of last three visits here- last two were decided by total of five points.

UAB won its last five games with MIddle Tennessee, winning 54-49/77-67 in last two visits here. Blazers are 7-6 this year vs schedule #161; they’re 1-2 in true road games, losing by 7 at Memphis, 36 at Texas- their win was at SF Austin. UAB is turning ball over 22.2% of time (#316); they’re #42 experience team but have new coach. Middle Tennessee lost its last two games after a 10-1 start; Blue Raiders are 10-3 vs schedule #70- they’re #35 experience team that is forcing turnovers 21.4% of time- they’re shooting 63.6% on line (#313).

San Diego State won its last four games after a 4-4 start, winning tourney in Hawai’i; they’re 2-3 vs top 150 teams, with best win by 12 over #50 Cal. Aztecs have #231 eFG%, shooting only 33.9% on arc- they won their last four games with New Mexico, beating Lobos by 7-27 points LY. New Mexico lost its last four visits here, by 21-3-14-7 points. Lobos split last ten games overall; they beat Fresno by 5 in MW opener. New Mexico is 0-4 vs top 100 teams; their best win was over #110 New Mexico State- they split pair of games with the Aggies.

Utah won its last five games with Colorado, winning last four played here, by 3-11-25-2 points. Buffs lost both series games LY by two points each. Utes are 9-3 vs schedule #340; they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams- their best win was over #227 Utah Valley. Utah is #194 experience team; they’re turning ball over 21.7% of time. Colorado is #43 experience teams that is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, with best win #15 Xavier. Buffaloes are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss by 8 at #57 BYU. Colorado has #14 eFG% defense in country.

Arizona won its last 13 games with Stanford; Wildcats won last six visits to Farm, winning by 2-9-13-3-7-14 points. Arizona got PG Jackson-Cartwright back last game, a huge boost as they upset Cal Bears in Berkeley; they’ve won six games in row, are 2-0 in true road games, with a 79-60 win at Missouri. Stanford lost four of last five D-I games with only win by 6 over Idaho; Cardinal allowed 89 pts/game in its last two games- they’re 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with only win over #54 Seton Hall. Stanford is shooting only 32% on arc (#275).

Arizona State is 8-6 vs schedule #110; they’re #102 experience team that is playing tempo #42, shooting 37.1% on arc. ASU is 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with wins over San Diego State/Stanford, also their only two true road games this season. Cal Bears lost last two games at home by total of nine points, to Virginia/Arizona; they swept Arizona State LY by 5-3 points, after losing previous five series games. Sun Devils lost five of last seven visits to Berkeley. Cal has #6 eFG% defense, but is shooting only 32.4% on arc.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey bettors feasting on one big trend when the NHL goes outdoors

One of the best parts about flipping the calendar to a brand new year is that it means the outdoor hockey game is upon us.

The 2017 Winter Classic, features the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues facing off in Busch Stadium on January 2nd.

This is one of three outdoor games on the 2017 NHL schedule, the Detroit Red Wings visit the Toronto Maple Leafs at BMO Field (Jan. 1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins host the Philadelphia Flyers from Heinz Field (Feb. 25)

Players will notice a few significant differences between playing inside an arena and plying their trade in an outdoor stadium environment. Most notably, temperature fluctuations can play havoc with both the quality of the ice surface and the hardness of the puck.

If past history is any indication, bettors can expect the visiting clubs to spoil the party as road teams have had a big edge when the roof comes off. Here's a look at the previous outdoor games, along with the relevant betting numbers:

November 22, 2003: Montreal 4 at Edmonton 3 (O/U: 5)

The first of two Heritage Classics went to the visiting team, while the bone-chilling temperatures at Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium didn't deter the teams from easily eclipsing the total.

January 1, 2008: Pittsburgh 2 at Buffalo 1 (SO) (O/U: 5.5)

The Penguins edged the Sabres at Ralph Wilson Stadium, with the teams combining for 62 shots but still falling well below the total.

January 1, 2009: Detroit 6 at Chicago 4 (O/U: 5.5)

The Red Wings made it three straight outdoor victories for the road team, prevailing in a Wrigley Field slugfest that remains the highest-scoring outdoor game in NHL history.

January 1, 2010: Philadelphia 1 at Boston 2 (OT) (O/U: 5.5)

The Bruins provided the Fenway Park faithful with the first home victory at an outdoor contest, shading the Flyers in a thrilling overtime contest that saw the teams combine for just 51 shots.

January 1, 2011: Washington 3 at Pittsburgh 1 (O/U: 6)

Despite a premium matchup featuring two of the league's most potent offenses, the Capitals and Penguins finished under the total in the Heinz Field showdown that will be best remembered for Sidney Crosby's career-altering concussion.

February 20, 2011: Montreal 0 at Calgary 4 (O/U: 5)

The Flames earned the first shutout in NHL outdoor history, cashing an Under while giving the home side just its second victory in six outdoor games.

January 2, 2012: New York Rangers 3 at Philadelphia 2 (O/U: 5)

Citizens Bank Park was the site of the Rangers' first taste of outdoor action, an entertaining victory over the Flyers. The teams narrowly missed surpassing the total despite combining for 69 shots.

January 1, 2014: Toronto 3 at Detroit 2 (SO) (O/U: 5)

The Maple Leafs and Red Wings did battle at the Big House in front of a record crowd of more than 105,000 people; Toronto made it six wins in eight tries for the road team, while the clubs provided the first push in outdoor history.

January 25, 2014: Anaheim Ducks 3 at Los Angeles Kings 0 (O/U: 5)

The Ducks and Kings skated at Dodger Stadium among the sunshine, palm trees and Kiss halftime show. The road team prevailed again as the Ducks dominated play in this low scoring affair.

January 26, 2014: New York Rangers 7 at New Jersey Devils 3 (O/U: 5)

This game got out of hand. Early. The teams combined for nine goals through the first two periods and the road team - the Rangers in this case - prevailed once again in Stadium games.

January 29, 2014: New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 1 (O/U: 5.5)

The road team wins again. The Rangers prevailed in their second game at Yankee Stadium in a matter of days in this game, which pushed the road team to nine victories.

March 1, 2014: Pittsburgh Penguins 1 at Chicago Blackhawks 5 (O/U: 5.5)

The Blackhawks took control of this game early, outshooting the Penguins 14-5 in the first period. Chicago poured on the offense notching a win for the home teams and topping the total.

March 2, 2014: Ottawa Senators 4 at Vancouver Canucks 2 (O/U: 5)

Vancouver jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead in the first before surrendering four unanswered goals to the Senators. Home fans left sad again with the Sens claiming victory.

January 1, 2015: Chicago Blackhawks 2 at Washington Capitals 3 (O/U 5)

This game looked destined for overtime when in the final 13 seconds Capitals' forward Troy Brouwer scored to make sure the home-town fans left happy in the Nations capital.

February 21, 2015: Los Angeles Kings 2 at San Jose Sharks 1 (O/U 5.5)

Seventy thousand fans in North Cali packed Levi's Stadium to watch the visiting Kings keep the road teams and Under trends alive with a 2-1 win in the second - and final - outdoor game of the 2014-15 NHL season.

January 1, 2016: Montreal Canadiens 5 at Boston Bruins 1 (O/U 5.5)

The Canadiens, who had won seven straight games at TD Garden, took the streak outside and dominated the Bruins 5-1 at Gillette Stadium, home of the New England Patriots. Montreal took control early outshooting Boston 14-5 in the first period and scored the opening goal 1:14 into the game.

February 21, 2016: Chicago Blackhawks 1 at Minnesota Wild 6 (O/U 5)

A home team wins. Minnesota dominated Chicago, Jason Pominville and Erik Haula each had a goal and two assists. For Chicago, their record falls to 1-3 all time in outdoor games.

February 27, 2016: Detroit Red Wings 5 at Colorado Avalanche 3 (O/U 5)

Brad Richards was the hero for the road team in the first outdoor game in Colorado. The Red Wings winger tipped in a rebound with a minute left in the 3rd period. At 65 degrees this was the warmest outdoor game in the history of the NHL event.

October 23, 2016: Edmonton Oilers 3 at Winnipeg Jets 0 (O/U 5.5)

The first outdoor game held in Winnipeg was delayed for almost two hours because of too much sun, officials worried the glare would create safety issues for players. The road team dominated with three second period goals.

Total: Road team 14-5-0; O/U 8-8-3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Bengals WR Green goes on IR
By The Sports Xchange

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, already shut down for Sunday's season finale against the Baltimore Ravens, was officially placed on injured reserve Saturday.
Green, 28, will miss the last six games with a hamstring injury suffered during the first series against the Buffalo Bills on Nov. 20.
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis confirmed Wednesday that the six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver would not play Sunday.
Green was elected to the Pro Bowl this season despite playing in just nine full games, catching 66 passes for 964 yards and four touchdowns. He will fall 36 yards short of reaching 1,000 yards for his first six seasons, and would have joined Randy Moss as the only NFL players to accomplish that feat.

--The Detroit Lions placed running back Theo Riddick on injured reserve due to a wrist injury.
Riddick already was ruled out of Sunday night's NFC North Division showdown with the Green Bay Packers. It will be the fourth consecutive game that Riddick misses. He leads the team with a modest 357 rushing yards.
The Lions also promoted wide receiver Jace Billingsley from the practice squad. Billingsley originally signed with the Lions this season as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Eastern Oregon.
In addition, Detroit signed tight end Kennard Backman to the practice squad.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed punter Bryan Anger to a five-year contract extension.
The deal is worth $17 million ($3.4 million per year average), according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
The 6-foot-3, 205-pound Anger joined Tampa Bay in 2016, setting franchise records for punts inside the 20 (32) and net punting average (42.4) -- both career bests -- while also establishing a team record for gross punting average (45.9). He ranks fifth in the NFL in punts inside the 20 and fourth in net average.
Anger, 28, originally entered the league as a third-round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2012 NFL Draft. He spent his first four seasons (2012-15) with Jacksonville, before coming to Tampa Bay.

--The Minnesota Vikings placed safety Andrew Sendejo on injured reserve because of a knee injury and promoted wide receiver Isaac Fruechte from the practice squad.
Sendejo started 14 games in his sixth NFL season, recording 69 tackles, four pass breakups and two interceptions. He also contributed on special teams, recording six tackles.
Fruechte spent the 2015 season on the Vikings' practice squad after joining the team as an undrafted free agent out of Minnesota. He spent this offseason with the Vikings and rejoined Minnesota's practice squad in September after a brief stint on the Detroit Lions' practice squad.

--The Baltimore Ravens claimed wide receiver Vince Mayle off waivers from the Dallas Cowboys.
Baltimore moved linebacker Zachary Orr (neck) to injured reserve to make room for Mayle. Orr, 24, was already ruled out for Sunday's season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Mayle, 25, was a 2015 fourth-round draft pick of the Cleveland Browns out of Washington State. The 6-foot-2, 228-pound Mayle has seen action in seven NFL games, including six this season, all with the Cowboys. He played mostly on special teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 17
By Marcus DiNitto

Week 17 in the NFL is always a perplexing one to handicap. Between teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention and those whose playoff seeds are solidified, it is extremely difficult for gamblers to gauge motivational levels.

Even when a coach states publicly that his playoff-bound team will go all out in its regular-season finale, those remarks should be taken with a healthy dose of salt.

"Coaches love to lie to the media, and the media’s dumb enough to take whatever they say as gospel, said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Salmons added, "Week 17 gets to the point where it’s a glorified preseason week. (For bettors), it’s just about finding information. You find more information than the guy booking the line at the current time and you bet it."

Here are the opening betting lines for the final week of the 2016-17 regular season, some of which would seem awfully strange in any other week. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, with early moves and differences among books also noted.

Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

With Marcus Mariota out with a broken leg, Matt Cassel gets the call at quarterback for Tennessee. This line dipped to as low as Titans -2.5 and rose to as high as -3 (-120) at the Westgate on Monday. It’s a game of no playoff significance – the Texans have clinched the AFC South and are locked into the No. 4 seed, and Titans have been eliminated.

Buffalo Bills (-6, 44) at New York Jets

There are +6.5s available for dog bettors and 44.5s for those interested in ‘under’ for this meaningless AFC East clash.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 41.5)

Stations opened Cincy -1.5 before joining the rest of the crowd at -2.5. Both teams are out of the playoff race.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-8, 44.5)

With the Redskins needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Giants locked into the No. 5 seed, here’s one of those strange lines we alluded to above.

"The Giants are using backup NFL players, not their frontline guys, and that’s why the spread is what it is, Salmons said.

There were plenty of 7.5s around for gamblers interested in laying the points with the Redskins next week.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 46.5) at Detroit Lions

Green Bay opened -3 throughout Las Vegas for the de facto NFC North championship game, which has been flexed into NBC’s primetime slot at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. The total is between 46.5 and 47.

Salmons hasn’t been high on the Packers all season, and their five-game winning streak hasn’t changed his mind.

"I don’t like Green Bay, Salmons said. "I think they’re beating up on nonsense, so I don’t buy them. I know the public will. The public’s going to bet them like crazy this week.

Salmons said he’d be interested in Detroit at +3.5, but said, "at 3, I probably wouldn’t bet it."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 47)

The Colts opened -6 at multiple books on Sunday, but the line was adjusted in one flash Monday to -4.5 at most shops. MGM Resorts was dealing Jacksonville +5 as of this writing for those looking to take the points in this meaningless AFC South contest. ‘Under’ bettors could find 47.5 at the Wynn.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

With home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs under wraps, the betting market is not expecting full effort from the Cowboys next week.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 41)

The Westgate opened Minny -5.5 on Monday with a move to -5 in early wagering, while the Wynn hung -6 and stood pat. Let’s call 5.5 the consensus. Both teams are out of the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs (-6.5, 46.5)

The Bucs’ playoff chances are on life support – and officially dead if the Lions beat the Cowboys on Monday night – but they jumped from -4 to -6.5 at multiple books.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 44.5)

Monday’s opening line of Pittsburgh -10 at the Westgate was bet down to -7.5 within about four hours. With the Steelers locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC South, Salmons expects next Sunday’s home date against the lowly Browns to be a "Landry Jones" game.

Salmons said, "(Ben) Roethlisberger will play, if they went crazy, maybe a quarter, and that would seem like a lot. I can see him playing one series, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t even play.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7 even, 55)

This line was being dealt between Atlanta -6.5 and -7, with the Falcons able to grab the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win.

"Seems a little high, Salmons said the number. "They’re definitely taking the teams that have to win and essentially tacked on 2 points, 3 points in these games. There’s a lot of that going on this week."

New England Patriots (-9.5, 44.5) at Miami Dolphins

With a win clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the Patriots, while the best Miami can do is move from No. 6 to No. 5, the Pats were adjusted from -7.5 to -9.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. The total is between 44.5 and 45 around Vegas.

"I assume Miami’s going to rest some players," Salmons said.

Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41) at Los Angeles Rams

This line moved from 6.5 to 6 at multiple bet shops, but the higher number was still available as of this writing for those considering the 'dog in this meaningless game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 45) at San Diego Chargers

Chiefs -4 became -4.5 on a lot of betting boards in Las Vegas, as Kansas City can win the AFC West with win and an Oakland loss at Denver.

Said Salmons, "You basically want to make the line as high as you can make it without the wiseguys betting the 'dog. You knew it was more than 3 and less than 7, so it’s somewhere in that area.

"The public’s going to bet Kansas City because they keep reading everywhere that Kansas City needs to win so they can get the 2 seed. But you expect San Diego to show up in this game.

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 43) at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle on Monday was as low as -8.5 and as high as -10 for its season finale. The Seahawks need a win and some help to improve to the No.2 position in the NFC for a first-round bye.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42)

The Raiders can assure themselves of a first-round bye by beating the Broncos in Denver, but they’ll have to do it without quarterback David Carr. While the line here moved from Denver -3 to -2.5 at several shops, Salmons said, "If Carr was playing, this line would be Oakland -3 easily."

Matt McGloin is expected to start for Oakland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: NFC North title on the line when Packers meet Lions
By PATRICK EVERSON

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us, with some key matchups to determine playoff seeding and if teams will even make the playoffs. We talk with Scott Kaminsky, sports director, about opening lines on a few key games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (OFF)

Green Bay is making a hard charge toward the NFC North crown, winning its last five games SU while going 4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Packers (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) rolled past Minnesota 38-25 Saturday as a 6-point home favorite.

Detroit (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) still has Week 16 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Dallas. The Lions had their own five-game winning streak going (4-1 ATS) before falling at the New York Giants 17-6 catching 4 points on Dec. 18.

With Detroit playing tonight, the line has not yet posted, though Kaminsky offered some speculation.

“I think Green Bay will be somewhere around -3. As I’m sitting here, I’m in a T-shirt, and the only thing written on it is ‘Relax,’” he said, alluding to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ comment from a couple seasons ago when his team was struggling a bit but rebounded. Green Bay has done the same this year.

“I’m not an Aaron Rodgers fan as a person, but I would lean toward Green Bay to cover the spread,” Kaminsky said. “There’s something about Detroit, I’m just not enamored with the team. I think Rodgers has the ‘it’ factor, and Detroit has the ‘non-it’ factor.”

The winner of this game claims the division crown, while the loser will be fighting with Washington or Tampa Bay for the final NFC playoff berth.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

New York is already assured of one of the two wild-card slots from the NFC, thanks to its 8-2 SU run over the last 10 games (7-3 ATS). The Giants (10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) lost Saturday at Philadelphia, 24-19 getting 1.5 points, but have still punched their postseason ticket.

Washington, meanwhile, needs a victory this week and some help, for sure. The Redskins (8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS) have lost three of their last five SU, but drilled Chicago 41-21 Saturday as a 3-point road favorite.

“The Giants have nothing to play for, and the Redskins need to win,” Kaminsky said. “I’m not a fan of betting on a team because it needs to win, but it’s tricky in this game – how much time are the Giants’ starters going to get? Week 17 is my least favorite thing to book in sports, because of who’s playing and who’s not playing. I hate it. I’d take break-even right now.”

Kaminsky said a little early money came in on the Redskins, but the line and the price are still at the opener of -7 (-115). And he offered bettors a little advice: keep an eye on the quarter lines, in the event New York announces its starters are only going to play a quarter or perhaps the first half. Some value can come up if you catch the oddsmakers sleeping.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Oakland was dealt a huge blow in Saturday’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders (12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) lost quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg in the fourth quarter of a 33-25 win as a 3.5-point chalk, ending Carr’s season. The Raiders are still in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed – though a loss this week could drop them into a wild-card spot.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver, meanwhile, will wrap up its season Sunday, with no trip to the playoffs. The Broncos (8-7 SU and ATS) lost three in a row and four of their last five, going from 7-3 and firmly in the postseason picture to 8-7 and completely out. On Sunday night at Kansas City, Denver had nothing in the tank and took a 33-10 loss as a 3.5-point pup.

“Denver’s so bad,” Kaminsky said, noting the line is where it is only because of Carr’s absence. “I’d have Oakland -3.5 if Carr’s playing – about a 6-point difference.”

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+4)

Kansas City can still nab the AFC West title, and with it the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, if things fall right this week. The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have gone 9-2 SU (7-4 ATS) in their last 11, capped by a 33-10 rout of Denver on Sunday night as a 3.5-point fave.

San Diego will have to settle for spoiler, with an opportunity to keep K.C. locked into the wild card. On Saturday, the Chargers (5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS) continued their habit of being on the short end of one-score games, while becoming Cleveland’s only victim all season in a 20-17 road loss laying 4.5 points.

We opened the Chiefs -4 (-120) and moved to 4.5 on Monday afternoon.

“San Diego pretty much played as well as it could with what it had this season,” Kaminsky said. “They had an abundance of injuries. I think Philip Rivers is really a good quarterback. I’d love to see him on a better team.

“And the Chiefs are just a solid team. They don’t do anything great, but they do everything well. Sunday night against Denver was a perfect example.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

It's not impossible to win a Super Bowl after losing your starting quarterback late in the regular season to an injury. The 1990 New York Giants saw Phil Simms go out with a foot injury and backup Jeff Hostetler led the team to a title.

But that New York team had a great defense. I can't say the same for this year's Oakland Raiders. They beat Indianapolis on Saturday but lost quarterback and MVP candidate Derek Carr to a broken leg. He was to have surgery on the fibula Tuesday. The recovery timetable is 6-8 weeks so perhaps if he's a fast healer then Carr could play in Super Bowl LI, but I'm not expecting the Raiders to get there behind Matt McGloin, a former walk-on at Penn State. He was 2-for-3 for 29 yards in place of Carr vs. the Colts and hasn't started a game since his rookie 2013 season.

The Raiders thought enough of McGloin, who wasn't even drafted, this past offseason to put a second-round restricted tender on him, meaning any club that would have signed McGloin would have lost its second-round pick. But he never got an offer sheet, and the Raiders could have matched it if they wanted to. In McGloin's career, he has passed for 1,847 yards while completing 155 of 266 passes (58.3 percent) with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 12 games. His last start came in Week 16 of the 2013 season. He is 1-5 as a starter. Oakland visits Denver this Sunday and the Super Bowl champion Broncos have been eliminated from the playoff chase. They are likely to start rookie Paxton Lynch at QB.

If the Raiders win, and they are 2.5-point underdogs, they are AFC West champions and at worst the AFC's No. 2 seed. They would need a win and the Patriots to lose in Miami to get the No. 1 seed. An Oakland loss and Chiefs win in San Diego would give the division and No. 2 seed to Kansas City. It is a 4.5-point favorite in what's expected to be the final NFL game in San Diego with the Bolts likely moving to Los Angeles. Should be quite a scene at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs are +500 to win the AFC title while the Raiders are +1200.

Here are some Week 17 early lines that caught my eye.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40): Tennessee also lost its starting quarterback, Marcus Mariota, to a season-ending broken leg in Week 16. His injury is much worse than Carr's as Mariota will need 4-5 months to recover. Matt Cassel will start under center here. The Titans were upset at Jacksonville and eliminated from playoff contention following Houston's win over Cincinnati, which gave the Texans the AFC South title. They are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC and thus have no reason to play their starters this week. Coach Bill O'Brien does plan to stick with Tom Savage as his starting QB, though. He could actually use the reps but might get pulled at some point. Running back Lamar Miller is dealing with an ankle injury so he's probably not going to play. The pick: Titans and "under."

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44): The Steelers are AFC North champions and locked into the fourth seed in the conference. Thus expect some key guys to get this game off. One early report has Ben Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell as sitting out. I'd think Antonio Brown would too unless he pushes to play to win the receptions title again. He has 106 catches, four ahead of Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald. The Browns got their first win of the season in Week 16 by taking out visiting San Diego. But it would behoove Cleveland to lose here as that would assure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. If Cleveland wins and San Francisco loses vs. Seattle, the 49ers will own the No. 1 overall pick and the Browns will pick second. Who will Cleveland start at QB? Robert Griffin III is dealing with a concussion so it could be rookie Cody Kessler. I doubt RGIII is back with the Browns next year. The pick: Pittsburgh and under.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5, 43): NFC West winner Seattle might have blown its shot at the NFC's No. 2 seed with a home loss to Arizona in Week 16. NFC South champion Atlanta would claim that with a victory Sunday at home vs. New Orleans. The only way Seattle gets it now is with a win, Falcons loss and at least one loss by Detroit (played Monday night in Dallas). Broken legs were really going around in Week 16 as the Seahawks lost receiver Tyler Lockett to one. He had 41 catches for 597 yards and a TD this year and is also a good kick returner. Running back Thomas Rawls' status is up in the air. Rawls suffered a shoulder injury in the second quarter of Saturday's game. The 49ers won't have their top running back, Carlos Hyde, as he tore his MCL in Week 16. Hyde has rushed for 988 yards and six scores. I'm presuming this will be the final game in a 49ers uniform for Colin Kaepernick as he's set to become a free agent. I could see him landing with the Jets or Broncos this offseason. The pick: 49ers and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 17 NFL lines are going to move
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins are rolling, with nine wins in their last 10 and a berth in the playoffs. Plus, the Fish have incentive to win this week – if things fall right they move up to the 5 seed in the AFC playoffs and would not have to play in Pittsburgh. But that doesn’t impress bettors, who took the opening line (New England -6) and quickly bet it up 3.5-points.

It all has to do with Patriots motivation. New England needs a win at 1 p.m. to lock down the overall No. 1 seed in the AFC and make Oakland’s game (at 4:25 EST) at Denver (Broncos -2.5) moot. Last season, you recall, Bill Belichick took his foot off the accelerator in Week 17 at Miami, lost home-field advantage, then lost in Denver in the AFC title game. Not many see a repeat of that happening.

Game to wait on

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5)

Oddsmakers and bettors both figure that the Seahawks will lay waste to the Niners, especially after Seattle’s puzzling loss to the Cardinals at home last week. Seattle is dealing with injuries everywhere – safety Earl Thomas and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are both done for the season, and now running back Thomas Rawls might not be a go against San Francisco.

Still, this is San Francisco we’re talking about and the 49ers are 1-6 at home ATS this season. Bettors are still pounding Seattle, so there could be some reluctant movement in the line before kickoff.

Total to watch

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (40)

Pardon Bill O’Brien if he has any flashbacks this week. A year ago his Texans got waxed, 30-0, by the Chiefs in the wild card round of the playoffs when QB Brian Hoyer had as bad a game (four interceptions) as anyone thought possible. Twelve months later and O’Brien still has QB issues. Brock Osweiler hasn’t been the answer, so the Texans will roll with backup Tom Savage for the rest of the season.

Savage game-managed Houston past Cincinnati last week and gets another four quarters vs. Marcus Mariotta-less Tennessee this Sunday. The Titans surprisingly stayed in the playoff into Week 16, but will be playing out the string with veteran Matt Cassel under center in what looks like a low-scoring game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 17 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm…” in Week 17:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6, 44)

This games stands out as the most lopsided line of the week. I hate to say it, but the Bills should not be favored. In fact, if they show up physically (because mentally they won’t be there) I’d be surprised. It would be one thing if Buffalo was potentially saying good-bye to a long, loved coach after decades of great work. But this isn’t the case. Buffalo owes nothing to Rex Ryan and he did nothing for Buffalo. Incentive is not a term they will be using this week.

The Jets will be loose as a goose and ready to play. As the last game, a win against their divisional foe will mean more to them than vice versa. No one is going to be balls-to-the-wall football but with a little backing from the home town crowd, a little push and momentum for a season-ending win, the Jets should prevail straight up or at least lose a close one. Grab the points early, take a shot of whisky, and watch the merciless season for both team end without much fanfare.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Normally, one would think this would be a great date to mark on the calendar to settle in and watch some smash-mouth football. But not here. In fact, we’re not even looking at the side in this one. We’re keying into the total.

With the shock waves felt from Derek Carr’s injury, all playoff-bound teams have been put on notice. Although, we truly feel Philadelphia will win this game out of default, as the Cowboys try to avoid all injuries this weekend - particularly Tony Romo, who has been now deemed an important piece in case of an injury/breakdown to Dak Prescott. Don’t be surprised if you see Mark Sanchez play over Romo.

I don’t envision the Cowboys extending anyone on offense and with the lack of a complete overhaul of personnel, they will still be fielding most of their top defensive players throughout the game. Add in the cold weather and it looks like we’ll be watching two Chuck Knox teams playing run, run, pass, punt all game.

I don’t see six touchdowns scored in this one.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5)

This is one of the Week 17 games that actually counts. Terrible opening line by the offshores at Tampa Bay -3.5 saw the line jump to the current -6.5 level. We still like the Bucs at the higher number and believe this will still go up by kickoff.

Having one of the most disappointing seasons of 2016, Carolina really has nothing to play for. At this point, a win or a loss won’t change the Panthers draft position that much. Cam Newton has been punished this season and we don’t envision him playing that much, if at all. Keep an eye on his status as the week unfolds.

Tampa Bay has faint chances to get into the playoffs but the fact that it’s even there, will have this team playing for its life. That’s what we like to have on our side. Playing in the early games, there will be no time to scoreboard watch early on. The Bucs are just going to have to win and control the things they can and not worry about the things they can’t.

I expect Tampa Bay to put Carolina out of its misery early and coast to a big win. For those of you who got the early numbers, good catch.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41)

This game counts for nothing. I’m very surprised at the opening move beyond the initial play at +3.5. Taking the hook was a given in some respects but continuing to take the line to 2.5 seems surprising unless, of course, this is the setup to pounce on Denver game day.

Let’s use the early influencing money and grab Denver minus the points now as it will be the only team interested in winning this game. The Raiders will be playing injury-free football and will give up the hard hits at all costs. They will not be exposing Matt McGloin all that much, so be ready to see plenty of hand offs by Conner Cook.

Denver will be incentivized to end the season on an uptick in front of its home crowd and we see nothing to point to an all-out game by Oakland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

Texans' ragged red zone stats vs. Titans' TD spree

This game will have no impact on the final playoff picture, with the Texans having already secured the AFC North title even with a loss to the rival Titans, who are on the outside looking in. But this contest still means plenty to Houston, which will have to decide on a starting quarterback between slumping Brock Osweiler and unproven Tom Savage. The latter can help his cause with a win over Tennessee, but he'll need to close the chasm in red-zone scoring between the teams.

Osweiler's first year as the main man in Houston was a colossal failure; the former Denver Broncos backup enters the regular season finale with just 2,704 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Among the litany of failures was his inability to convert in the red zone, as the Texas scored touchdowns on trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line just 39.02 percent of the time; only the woeful New York Jets had a harder time going from the red zone to the end zone.

That could mean big trouble Sunday against a Titans team that had no trouble converting red-zone trips into six points. Tennessee leads the entire NFL in red-zone success rate, scoring touchdowns on 72.34 percent of their visits. To put that into perspective, no other team this season is above 70 percent - and no team finished higher than 69.44 percent last season. Even with QB Marcus Mariota out of action, the Titans have a significant advantage here.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Delanie Walker



Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)

Raiders' late D struggles vs. Broncos' second-half stinginess

The Raiders not only find themselves back in the playoff picture for the first time in a while, they have a shot at home-field advantage throughout the AFC postseason if they can defeat the Broncos and the New England Patriots fall in Miami. But the path isn't an easy one for Oakland, which will need to dispatch the defending champions on hostile soil. And if this one is close at the break, the Broncos hold the advantage as far as second-half defense is concerned.

The Raiders are one of the most generous teams in the NFL after halftime, allowing 13.9 second-half points per game; only the
San Francisco 49ers (14.9), Carolina Panthers (14.5) and San Diego Chargers (14.4) have surrendered more. The rate is even worse than the one they posted last season (12.6), and becomes an even bigger factor considering the offensive downgrade the team is facing with the switch from injured QB Derek Carr to backup Matt McGloin.

The Broncos would love nothing more than to put a damper on Oakland's sensational season, and is in great position to do so. Denver allows the fifth-fewest second-half points in the NFL (8.4), and has given up just 18 second-half points combined over its previous three games. Armed with one of the most impressive pass defenses in football, the Broncos will likely make things miserable for McGloin all game long - but especially over the final two quarters.

Daily fantasy fade: WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+5.5, 44.5)

Chiefs' elite ball-hawking vs. Chargers' turnover troubles

While Oakland is staring at a top-two seed in the conference with a victory, a loss - combined with a Kansas City victory over San Diego - would drop the Raiders out of top spot in the AFC West. So you can bet the Chiefs will be bringing their best football to Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they tangle with a Chargers team that has long been eliminated from the playoff race. And much to the Raiders' chagrin, Kansas City comes in with a significant edge in the turnover department.

The Chiefs have been among the league leaders in turnover margin since the start of the campaign, and come into Week 17 ranked second in the NFL at a healthy +15. This is nothing new for the Chiefs, who recorded a +14 turnover margin a season ago - the second-highest in the league. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a major reason for that dominance on the offensive side of the ball, having thrown just seven interceptions - his sixth straight season of seven or fewer INTs.

His Sunday afternoon counterpart, Chargers QB Philip Rivers, has been on the other end of the spectrum this season, having thrown a league-high 19 interceptions. It's the fourth time in six seasons that Rivers has tossed 15 or more INTs, and his carelessness with the football has played a significant part in the Chargers ranking 26th in the league in turnover differential at -6. Look for Rivers to get to 20 INTs for the second time in his career Sunday.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Philip Rivers

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Packers' potent playoff push vs. Lions' late-season lethargy

The NFC North title is on the line Sunday night as the Packers visit the Lions in the final game of the NFL's regular season. The teams are headed in opposite directions heading into this one, with Detroit having dropped two in a row and Green Bay reeling off five consecutive victories since a 4-6 start that nearly torpedoed its playoff chances. The momentum sits squarely in the Packers' favor, creating the kind of mismatch that could vault them to a division title at the expense of the collapsing lions.

Breaking down each team's last three games should make Packers fans feel jubilant. Green Bay has outscored its opponents 106-62 over that stretch, ranking second in points per game (35.3), sixth in red-zone touchdown rate (69.2 percent), second in average team passer rating (120.7) and first by a mile in turnover differential (+12). Simply put, there hasn't been a hotter team since the beginning of December than the Packers.

The Lions, by comparison, have been truly dismal; they rank 27th in points per game (15.7), 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate (53.3 percent), 29th in average team passer rating (66.5) and 28th in turnover differential (-8) over their previous three games. With Detroit sputtering to the finish line and Green Bay unbeatable since Thanksgiving, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers are on the verge of an incredible rags-to-riches finish this weekend.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Making sense of the 'WTF' final week of NFL betting
By JASON LOGAN

Making sense of NFL Week 17 is like trying to make sense of a David Lynch movie.

There’s no shortage of twists, turns and WTF moments, with some teams playing for a playoff spot, some resting up for the postseason, and others closing out disappointing campaigns with their motivation up for debate.

Then you throw in pointspreads and totals, and you might as well be watching the end of Mulholland Drive wearing your grandmother’s bifocals while having someone hit you over the head with a parking cone.

Through all this confusion, there's been some consistency when it comes to Week 17 totals the past few seasons. Since the 2013 NFL season, Week 17 games have finished with a collective 17-31 Over/Under count – playing Under the number 64.5 percent of the time.

Those 48 games have produced an average of 41.89 points scored versus an average closing betting total of 45.05, staying below the number by 3.16 points or basically a field goal. Last season, Week 17 finished with 11 of its 16 contests playing Under the total, posting an average of 42.93 points scored against an average closing total of 44.25.

There are plenty of factors that could lead to this lean toward the Under: lack of effort, resting starters/playing backups on offense, bad or cold weather. And while every game should be handicapped as its own entity – regardless of week – the Under has shown up more in Week 17 than the Over.

Going back to 1990, games played in the final week of the regular season are 186-202-6 Over/Under, with the Under cashing in at the counter 52 percent of the time. And over the past six seasons, Week 17 games are 39-58-3 O/U – a 58 percent winning clip for fans of low-scoring football.

This Sunday, the 16 NFL regular season finales have an average betting total of just over 44 points, with only one game (Saints at Falcons 56.5) higher than 49.5. NFL teams are combining for 45.4 points an outing in 2016, the seventh highest-scoring season since 1922. On the year, NFL games have gone 125-112-3 Over/Under for a 52.74 percent lean to the Over.

If all these Week 17 Over/Under stats are making your brain hurt, you could always give it a break: skip the final weekend of football, cuddle up with a warm drink and binge watch Twin Peaks until your ears bleed.

From Day 1

The usual hangover cure for New Year’s Day is Aspirin, orange juice, and college football. But with Week 17 landing on January 1, the college kids get the heave-ho and the pros take center stage.

This Sunday marks just the seventh time the NFL has had action –regular season or playoffs – on New Year’s Day since 1967 and only the fourth time since 1989. There were two Divisional Round games on Jan. 1 1989, two Wildcard games in 1995, a full Week 17 slate in 2006, and 14 season finales in 2012 (two games on Dec. 31).

In those 34 New Year’s Day NFL contests since 1989, the home side has produced a profitable 21-11-2 ATS record (22-12 SU), winning by an average score of 25.44-19.76 versus an average closing pointspread of -2.95 – covering by 2.73 points or almost a field goal.

As for New Year’s Day totals, the fireworks didn’t stop the night before. Contrary to our Week 17 totals trend above, since 1989 NFL games played on Jan. 1 have posted a 19-13-2 Over/Under count with the average combined points of 45.2 going against an average closing betting total of 40.57.

So, if you’re trying to tackle totals this New Year’s Day – along with a hangover – you may want to just keep drinking. Hair of the dog, baby!

Sharps like…

Baltimore. The Ravens opened +2.5 at Cincinnati in what is a meaningless game as far as playoffs are concerned, with both teams missing out on the tournament. Sharp money – and rare sharp money in Week 17 – has sided with the road team.

“Very little sharp money, altogether, but they have bet Baltimore moneyline and against the spread,” says Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas. “We’re now at Baltimore -1. For some reason they like Baltimore to do it.”

Biggest move…

The Ravens-Bengals spread is CG Technology’s biggest line move, but if you look at some offshore openers you’ll see the Patriots opened as low as -6 at Miami and have since climbed as high as -10.

“We waited on this line,” says Simbal. “We opened New England -10 (Even), with the Dolphins at +10 -120. We weren’t in any rush to put this one up there.”

Tampa Bay also suffered a significant drop, falling from -6 to -4 versus Carolina with a $10,000 moneyline wager on the Panthers at +180 coming in earlier this week at CG Technology sportsbooks.

“That caused us to move the spread too,” notes Simbal.

Biggest sweat…

Packers at Lions. The final game of the regular season – Week 17’s Sunday nighter – has drawn three times more bets on Green Bay than Detroit. That pushed the line from Packers -3 to -3.5, where the majority of action is hitting.

“Even if we get Packers by three, we’re OK,” says Simbal.

Banker game…

The regular season finale will determine what has been a lightly-bet Week 17 board, as of Thursday. According to Simbal, there is one-sided money on the visiting Cheeseheads and he sees that continuing through to Sunday.

“Ticket count will be massively in favor of Green Bay,” he says. “However, if Washington losses – even through they’re a 7-point favorite (hosting a resting Giants squad) – then both of these teams (Green Bay and Detroit) get in.”

Injury to watch

Travis Swanson, center Detroit Lions

The Lions have been without their starting center the past three games, with Swanson going through concussion protocol. Detroit is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in that span, barely beating Chicago at home then dropping road dates at New York and Dallas, and has averaged just under 16 points per game (compared to 21.5 ppg on the season) and allowed eight total sacks.

Versus Dallas in Week 16, the Lions watched Matt Stafford get sacked four times along with taking nine hits. Rookie center Graham Glasgow has started in place of Swanson, who is hopeful to return after practicing this week. Having the veteran snapping the ball will be huge for Detroit in its do-or-die game versus Green Bay Sunday. The Packers have eight sacks the last three games and had three against the Lions in Week 3’s 34-27 home win.

We know how to pick’em

The tightest spread on the Week 17 board, as of Thursday, is the AFC North battle between the Ravens and Bengals, which opened Cincy -2.5 and is bet down as far as Baltimore -1. With the playoff picture pretty much set in the AFC, and both teams on the outside, motivation comes into question. But Baltimore and Cincinnati are prideful organizations, so expect them to go at it.

If you just can’t decide which team to take – Ravens or Bengals – do what we do in this spot each week and just pick the team with the hottest cheerleaders.

Sunday’s menu

I’m not a big Facebook guy but there are two times in the year I do make sure to check out my feed: Halloween and Christmas. And while I was creeping on everyone’s Holiday cheer this week, I stumbled upon a former co-worker's pic of slow cooker jambalaya and instantly craved some hot seafood soup. I’ve never made it before, but this looks like a spicy recipe to warm my belly for a wintery Week 17.

Easy (money) like Sunday morning

For the second straight week, I took the Patriots and laid the points. And, for the second straight week, cashed in thanks to Tommy & Co. That’s pretty much makeup on a pig, with my yearly record now at 5-8 – or 7-9 if you count the three weeks I resorted to flipping a coin.

Bill Belichick is as warm to the idea of resting his starters in Week 17 as he is to the idea of hosting a party for the Boston media on New Year’s Eve. Not gonna happen. That could be why the Pats are 11-4-1 ATS in their 16 Week 17 outings with the Hoodie on the sidelines.

New England, which can clinch the AFC’s top seed and home field in the postseason with a win, opened -6 at Miami and has jumped to -9.5. I’m still grabbing the Patriots under the key number of -10. They’re 12-3 ATS heading into the season finale and aren’t showing any sign of taking their foot off the gas – especially after devouring the souls of the New York Jets with a 41-3 win last Sunday.

Pick: Patriots -9.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three games that matter to NFL season win total bettors in Week 17
By ROB HANSEN

Way back in February, we presented you with the opening NFL regular season win totals from CG Technology in Nevada. Now that the final week of the regular schedule is upon us, it's time to take a look a which teams need a win in Week 17 in order to hit the Over - cashing tickets for bettors who showed some preseason faith in the form of a monetary wager.

Based on the opening numbers, there are three games this weekend that season win total bettors will be paying close attention to.

The Buffalo Bills will travel to the Meadowlands to take on their division rivals, the New York Jets, as 3.5-point road favorites Sunday afternoon. The season win total for the Bills was set at 8, and with the Bills currently owning a win-loss record of 7-8 their backers will be looking for a win to simply salvage a push on their wagers - much like the Bills franchise will be attempting to salvage a .500 season without their former head coach, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback.

The New Orleans Saints are also 7-8 and will have nothing left to play for Sunday when they travel to Atlanta to take on the NFC South champions. The Falcons are currently listed as 7-point favorites which is not good news for bettors holding season win total tickets on the Saints. With an opening number of 7 wins the Saints will have to pull off a sizable upset in order to cash for their Over bettors.

The final game on Sunday's schedule that will have impact on season win total wagers will see the Cleveland Browns traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the mighty Steelers. The Steelers opened with a win total of 10.5 back in February and, with a current win-loss record of 10-5, their game in Week 17 will mean everything for their backers. Generally you would mark this down as a win in advance with the Super Bowl contenders taking on the pathetic Browns at home, but with head coach Mike Tomlin's announcement this week that Le'Veon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will all sit out Sunday's contest, this game instantly got a whole lot more interesting. Following the announcement that the Steelers will be without their three dynamic offensive weapons, Pittsburgh dropped from 11-point favorites down to 6-point faves at home.

With season win total results pending for only three teams in Week 17, that means there are plenty of results that have already been decided. Below are alphabetical lists of the teams who covered their win total and the teams who failed to hit their number (opening season win total from CG Technology in parenthesis).

Over their regular season win totals:

Atlanta Falcons 10 (7)
Baltimore Ravens 8 (7.5)
Dallas Cowboys 13 (9)
Detroit Lions 9 (7)
Houston Texans 9 (8)
Kansas City Chiefs 11 (9)
Miami Dolphins 10 (7)
New England Patriots 13 (10.5)
New York Giants 10 (7.5)
Oakland Raiders 12 (7.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 (6.5)
Tennessee Titans 8 (5.5)
Washington Redskins 8 (7.5)

Under their regular season win totals:

Arizona Cardinals 6 (9.5)
Carolina Panthers 6 (10.5)
Chicago Bears 3 (6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals 5 (9.5)
Cleveland Browns 1 (4.5)
Denver Broncos 8 (9.5)
Green Bay Packers 9 (10.5)
Indianapolis Colts 7 (8.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3 (6)
Los Angeles Rams 4 (7)
Minnesota Vikings 7 (9)
New York Jets 4 (8)
Philadelphia Eagles 6 (7.5)
San Diego Chargers 5 (7)
San Francisco 49ers 2 (5)
Seattle Seahawks 9 (10.5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
By Micah Roberts

It's the calm before the storm in Las Vegas with New Year's Eve only a day away from being uncorked, and the same goes for action coming through the sports books with most bettors focused on the daily college football bowl games and letting NFL Week 17 numbers iron out before making a cash commitment.

The NFL has been put on the back-burner so far during the slow holiday week, which has eased the anxiety of bookmakers across town because Week 17 always presents the most challenges with a constant wave of mis-information regarding who will or won't play. Sharp bettors sit back scouring the information trail as well hoping to get the info first before the books adjust.

Some of the questions for Week 17:

How long will Eli Manning play in a meaningless game for the Giants when the Redskins have everything to play for?

How long will the Dallas starters play?

Will Miami rest all of its regulars?

Does Houston rest its regulars at Tennessee?

What is Oakland quarterback Matt McGloin's true rating differential to David Carr?

And can the Browns win two straight while playing a Steelers squad without their trio of superstars in Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell?

The best way for the sports books to operate smoothly in a risky week with so many uncertainties is to post circles on the board for most games denoting that limited action will be taken. If the regular limit on a side is $20,000, most books will slash it in half to $10,000.

"We've got low limits to almost every game with the exception of the Lions and Packers," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal.

Station Casinos has nine of the 16 NFL games Sunday posted with circles and seven of the games with full limits. Book director Jason McCormick is also seeing great action in the Lions and Packers game as well, but says all other games have been slow. He doesn't expect to see a real push with of NFL volume until Saturday night.

So let's start out with the marquee game receiving the most attention where the Packers have been bet up from -3 to -3,5 at Detroit. The winner of the game wins the NFC North and a home playoff game next week and the loser could have its season end depending on how the Redskins fare against the Giants. It's a huge game, and bettors have shown emphatically who they're taking.

"There is two-and-a-half times more action on the Packers than the Lions, and its all from the fans -- no wise-guys betting either side yet," said Simbal. "Usually in games like this we'll see more slanted action on the favorite laying points while getting more action on the underdog taking plus-money, but the fans have been betting the Packers money-line as well. They're also betting the game over."

It sounds like the final game of the day is going to have the most impact on whether the books win or lose on the day.

"Yeah, it's kind of what I expected," Simbal said. That has been the case on Sunday night in 11 of the 16 prior weeks with the public being more right than wrong.

Even before this week's action piled up on the NFC North championship game, Simbal already had a rooting interest.

"This will be a big swing for us in futures. We do extremely well with the Lions winning the division, and as far as Super Bowl odds go, the Packers liability is our second-highest behind the Raiders."

CG Technology books have the Packers at 9/1 odds to win the Super Bowl with the Lions at 80/1.

The Cowboys are the NFC favorites to win the Super Bowl at 4/1 odds and they have the luxury of home field advantage already sewn up and can give the starters some rest at Philadelphia, where the Eagles are four-point favorites.

"Sharps are on the Eagles," said Simbal, "but the fans are on the Cowboys and they like the money-line even more since word got out that Tony Romo would see some playing time."

Mark Sanchez is also expected to see playing time behind back-up offensive-linemen, which is part of the reason the Eagles opened up as six-point favorites.

Defending NFC champion Carolina clinched a losing season last week and are playing at Tampa Bay where the Buccaneers are still technically alive for postseason play, but need a lot of crazy things to happen in other games.

"The Carolina game has been funny because we opened the Bucs -4 and had a guy immediately laid it, and the market was moving so we passed through -5 and -5.5 and went right to -6," Simbal said. "But then another guy came in and took the +6 for a limit play and also two limit wagers on the Panthers money-line at +195 and +185."

The biggest line move of the week is a meaningless game at Cincinnati.

"The Bengals were -2.5, but we've had a few plays push us to Ravens -1," Simbal said.

Perhaps the craziest looking spread of the week is the Patriots laying -9.5 and -10 at Miami, which is the same spread used in their Week 17 meeting last season when the Dolphins were 5-10.

"This number on the Patriots game is crazy," Simbal said. "Really, the Dolphins have something to play for, right? But no one is touching the game. Wise guys don't any part of it yet, so they're good with the number. I mean, we really have nothing on it; only $1,015 total bet on the game."

That might be a Vegas NFL record for least amount bet on a game through Friday. Really, that's approaching WNBA 'who cares' status. But the game actually means a lot for both teams.

The Patriots can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and the Dolphins can move to the No. 5 wild card seed by winning and getting a Chiefs (-5) loss at San Diego later in the day. If you're Miami, who has its first winning record and playoff berth since 2008, where would you rather travel to next week, Houston or Pittsburgh? Hmm, that's a tough one. Win, and the Dolphins face Tom Savage and possibly get Matt McGloin the week after. Lose, and you get Big Ben. It sounds like enough incentive for Miami to play all-out to win.

Miami has won at home against the Patriots the past three seasons, including a 20-10 win last season when the Patriots 'had to win' to get home field. They lost and had to go to Denver in the playoffs, and well, you know the rest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 17

If you were brave enough to take the Cleveland Browns on the ML along with my other three plays from last week's article you were able to go 2-2 SU and turn a nice profit. Minnesota (+185) and Indianapolis (+160) saw their playoff dreams get dashed, but Jacksonville (+185) and Cleveland (+230), were able to get us to the window and add about two units to our bankroll.

Week 17 is a whole different animal though as the majority of teams are just out there to cash a paycheck and that makes cashing your own betting tickets a little harder because it's tough to predict which teams will show up to play and which will simply be going through the motions. That being said, there are plenty of teams getting +4 or better on the point spread and some of them will be able to pull off the outright upset. Let's go through the list now.

Underdogs That Qualify

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5); ML (+177)
Dallas Cowboys (+4.5); ML (+180)
Chicago Bears (+6); ML (+210)
Carolina Panthers (+4.5); ML (+177)
Cleveland Browns (+6); ML (+210)
Miami Dolphins (+9.5); ML (+350)
New York Giants (+8); ML (+260)
New Orleans Saints (+7); ML (+260)
LA Rams (+6.5); ML (+225)
San Diego Chargers (+6); ML (+200)
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5); ML (+350)

A list that long has to be narrowed in a hurry and we can start by avoiding the Cleveland Browns this week as they accomplished their goal of getting a W a week ago. Even with the bulk of Pittsburgh's main weapons sitting out, last week's game vs. San Diego was Cleveland's “Super Bowl” - some of their players even said as such – and I don't believe the Browns care what happens after that.

Dallas is another team that's sitting key guys and is best to be left alone this week. It's been reported that Tony Romo will see some action, but the bulk of it will go to Mark Sanchez. Against an Eagles team that is still hungry to improve and build for next season, leaving that game alone is the better option.

Miami is another team best left off your card as while covering that big number is a possibility, the Patriots are still playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and would get there with a win. Stepping in front of the Patriots and the Tom Brady revenge tour has been detrimental to a bettor's bankroll all year long and this week will likely be no different.

Other bottom feeders like San Francisco and San Diego are up against opponents still playing for improved seeding (Seattle and KC respectively) and believing that those sub-par teams with nothing to play for will all of a sudden rise up and spoil the plans of their division rivals is tough. The Saints are in a similar position in Atlanta to play a Falcons team looking to earn a 1st round bye, but with the offense New Orleans possesses, they can always pull off an upset like this.

With them it comes down to whether or not they decide to show up to compete and that's hard to predict. Given Atlanta's compete level will be high and all the news surrounding Saints HC Sean Payton potentially leaving, I'd lean on the side of the Saints being one of those teams that will go through the motions and not care about the result.

The Carolina Panthers are an intriguing option from the NFC South though as they are in Tampa to take on a Bucs team that needs to win and have a lot of things fall their way to get into the playoffs. The chances of all those things happening for Tampa are slim to none, and we've already seen Carolina relish their role of spoiler a few weeks back when they knocked off the Redskins on MNF. Since the Panthers already lost the first meeting with Tampa this year (17-14), I would not be surprised to see Cam Newton and company step up once again and get the W.

Speaking of those Redskins, they host the Giants in a game Washington must have to have a shot at getting in. New York already has nothing to worry about as they are locked into a wildcard spot and have the goal of staying healthy this week. HC Ben McAdoo has already said his starters will see the field, but it likely won't be long, taking the Giants out of the running for a ML wager this week. That leaves the three teams (LA, Chicago, Jacksonville) on this list that are up against other opponents playing for nothing.

The Rams have already beaten Arizona once this season and after the fight the Cardinals put up last week in Seattle, it appears as though they are a team not going out there to just collect a paycheck. Same season revenge is on Arizona's side as well, and for as disappointing as this year has been for the Cardinals, I've got a tough time seeing them lose twice to a very bad Rams team.

Jacksonville and Chicago are up against the two teams that cost us wagers a week ago (Indy and Minnesota), and along with Carolina are probably the best bets in terms of the outright upset. Oddly enough, both Jacksonville and Chicago will be going for season sweeps of their respective opponents and while the revenge angle does them no favors in this spot, the deflating feeling the Colts and Vikings must have this week after being eliminated so late in the year should carry over onto the field.

Finishing 8-8 SU or 7-9 SU is of little consequence to those organizations that had Super Bowl aspirations this season, while the Jags and Bears would love to finish off with road victories to get to four wins on the campaign.

Week 17 betting is tough, but look for Carolina (+177), Jacksonville (+177), and Chicago (+210) to be some of the teams in the mix for the outright upset this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFC South rivals clash'

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers January 1, 1:00 EST

The Carolina Panthers will not be returning to postseason this year and this Sunday they will try and end Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ hopes at earning an outside shot at the last wild card spot in the NFC.

The betting market having little faith in Panthers have moved Bucs opening line from -4.0 to as high as -6.0 at most shops. Tampa Bay's B-2-B losses to Dallas, New Orleans has probably taken the wind out of their sails and Panthers playing for pride makes taking the genourous points a good choice.

Keep in mind, playing in front of the home audience usually means something. But, that does not seem to apply to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite winning the past three in front of the home audience the Bucs remain 3-4 SU/ATS this season on home field and a lowly 6-17SU the past 23 at Raymond James Stadium with a money-burning 8-15 record against the betting line including 3-9 as chalk.

Additionally, Bucs have not responded in the situation they find themselves on Sunday. Bucs have not been good bets hosting a team with a .400 or less record (1-6 ATS), have faltered at the betting window after a loss to the Saints (0-4 ATS), have a money-burning 1-4 ATS record hosting Panthers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC - Something on the line'

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins January 1, 1:00 EST

Despite New England’s remarkable 13-2 SU record this season along with a league-best 12-3 record against the betting line the squad is still not locked in as the #1 seed. Tom Brady and company need a win over the Dolphins to clinch home-field, or a late afternoon loss by Oakland when the Raiders take on Broncos at Sports Authority Field in Denver.

Oddsmakers not expecting Patriots to leave anything up to Oakland opened Patriots -7.5 point road favorites a number that has since jumped to -9.5.

Rather high spread for this game will ratchet up the tension for Patriot supporter's as Dolphins' bring an 8-1-1 ATS surge into the contest including a sparkling 4-0-1 ATS streak in front of the home audience. Dolphins have also won/covered their last three home games vs New England.

However, New England backer's can take comfort in the fact Patriots have something to play for not wanting a repeat of losing home-field advantage like last year and ultimately falling in the AFC Championship Game away from home. Additionally, Patriots have a number of positive trends working in their favor.

Patriots have gone a perfect 7-0 SU on the road this season covering in six of those trips away from Foxboro, have responded at the betting window laying 9.5 or more points going 4-1 ATS this season, 7-2 ATS last nine in the situation. Finally, Patriots have a tendency not to take teams off B-2-B SU/ATS wins lightly. In the last eight such matchups the Patriots have covered six times, with two push.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos January 1, 04:25 EST
Raiders (12-3, 10-5 ATS) can secure the division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win in the regular season finale against the Broncos, or a loss by the playoff-bound Kansas City Chiefs. Raiders suffering a devastating blow with the loss of QB Derek Carr last week have QB Matt McGloin taking snaps.

McGloin, making his first start since 2013 when he tossed eight touchdown passes, eight interceptions going 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS as a starter does give pause. However, Raiders 5th-ranked ground game will be the deciding factor. Expect Raiders to give Broncos tiring run defense shredded for an average 151.3 rushing/yards a heavy dose of RB Latavius Murray and rookie back DeAndre Washington who gained 99 yards scored twice against Colts last week.

Oakland 6-1 SU/ATS on the road this season, 9-1 ATS last ten in unfriendly territory, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 visits to Mile High and Broncos ridding a dreadful 1-6 ATS skid vs the division the scales are tipped in Raiders favor. Consider betting Raiders.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL action report: Week 17 betting odds are always a wild ride
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up Sunday with a full slate of 16 games, as there is no Monday nighter in the final week. We talk about where the action is with Matthew Holt, COO of CG Analytics, which provides lines to CG Technology’s sportsbooks around Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5

The NFC North title comes down to this one game, and Green Bay is the hotter team entering this clash under the Sunday night spotlight. The Packers (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) put a troubling four-game losing streak behind them by winning their last five, going 4-1 ATS in that stretch. Last week, Aaron Rodgers and Co. rolled past Minnesota 38-25 as a 6-point home favorite.

Detroit (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) had won five in a row and eight of nine (7-2 ATS), but stubbed its toe the past two weeks, or it would already be in the playoffs. The Lions fell at the New York Giants in Week 15, then got drubbed 42-21 at Dallas as a 6.5-point pup in the Monday nighter last week.

“This is the biggest game of the week – the most handle of the week, the most action, the biggest playoff implications, as the winner wins the NFC North,” Holt said. “What we’ve seen thus far, not surprisingly, public all over the Green Bay Packers, five times as much dollars wagered over the counter on the Green Bay Packers as the Detroit Lions. But the sharp players favoring the home underdog here. A lot of sharp money on Detroit, 2½ times as much dollars wagered on account on the Detroit Lions as the Green Bay Packers.

“This is gonna be a really interesting game. Detroit’s really good at home, but that pass defense has let them down all season statistically. And Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are red-hot.”

CG sportsbooks, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian, opened the Packers -3 on the road. The line bumped to 3.5 by Tuesday and stayed there until Friday before going back to 3, but then bounced back to 3.5 Saturday afternoon.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -8

Atlanta still has an opportunity to snare the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a win in its regular-season finale. The Falcons (10-5 SU and ATS) have won and cashed three in a row and four of their last five, including a 33-16 victory at Carolina as a 3-point chalk last week.

New Orleans (7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS) has little but pride to play for, though it has won and cashed the past two weeks under that same scenario. The Saints bested Tampa Bay 31-24 last week to cash as a 3-point home fave.

“A lot of public money on the Falcons,” Holt said. “Falcons not only been winning lately, but been blowing teams out, that high-octane offense, (and) the defense is getting turnovers. The other side of the ball, Drew Brees isn’t one to lay down for anybody, and that offense has been very good all year. The Saints have been an underrated team all year, and they’ve been a covering machine. Wins and losses don’t necessarily reflect it, but they’ve covered a lot of spreads, sharp guys taking notice of that.

“Big-time pros vs. Joes situation here. Seven times more dollars wagered on the Atlanta Falcons over the counter, six times more dollars wagered on the New Orleans Saints by the fellas betting on account. Gonna be a good one.”

CG opened Atlanta -7 on Christmas Day and dipped to 6.5 midweek, but the line went back to 7 on Wednesday night, and after adjusting the juice the past couple of days, the number finally went to 7.5 Saturday morning and 8 by the afternoon.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5

Oakland still has a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but could also fall to No. 5 and a wild-card with a loss. Regardless, the Raiders will get there without standout quarterback Derek Carr, who broke his leg last week against Indianapolis. The Raiders (12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) still went on to win that game 33-25 laying 3.5 points at home.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver will not be returning to the playoffs, thanks to a 1-4 SU and ATS slide over the past five weeks. The Broncos (8-7 SU and ATS) got pounded at Kansas City 33-10 last week getting 3.5 points.

With Carr’s injury, Denver opened -3 on Monday, but CG went to 2.5 later that day and 1.5 by Tuesday morning on Raiders money. Still, Holt said professionals are taking a good look at Denver, with Oakland starting Matt McGloin in Carr’s absence.

“I heard some people on a bunch of, you know, ESPN and some media podcasts talking about Oakland will be fine because they have a great offensive line, they have great receivers and they have great running backs, similar to the Dallas Cowboys,” Holt said. “But if we think back to Week 1, Dak Prescott wasn’t an MVP candidate when he only scored 19 points at home in a loss to the New York Giants. It took Dak Prescott about six weeks to finally not be dink-and-Dak and to have the reins taken off and to get that continuity, and be able to really matriculate that offense.

“That’s the same situation here for Matt McGloin. They may have three Pro Bowlers on the offensive line, they may have two Pro Bowl wide receivers and a great running game with Latavius Murray back there, but it’s going to take Matt McGloin a little bit of time to really get some continuity in this offense. Sharp players taking that into account. Seeing a lot of sharp action on the home team Denver Broncos.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 17 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 47)

Jacksonville's running back carousel could turn to Denard Robinson with Chris Ivory (hamstring) in line to sit out for the third time in five games while T.J. Yeldon was placed on injured reserve Monday. "Looks like I’ll be able to go," Robinson said earlier this week. "It's been tough (not playing). I hate just watching." Wideout Allen Robinson was more than a bystander last week, reeling in nine receptions to eclipse his total from the previous four games (eight) while his 147 yards receiving trumped the sum of his last five tilts (105). Robinson leads the team with 68 catches for 801 yards and six touchdowns, a far cry from his Pro Bowl numbers of 80 grabs for 1,400 yards and 14 scores last season.

Andrew Luck recorded his fifth straight multi-touchdown performance in Saturday's 33-25 loss to Oakland and also had two scoring strikes in the earlier meeting with Jacksonville. The former top overall pick is on pace for career highs in completion percentage (63.8) and quarterback rating (96.8) while Frank Gore is zeroing in on an impressive accomplishment as well. The veteran needs 36 rushing yards to record his ninth 1,000-yard season and first by a running back at the age of 33 or older since John Riggins accomplished the feat in 1984.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened this AFC South battle as 6-point home favorites and that line was too much for bettors and has shrunk to 4.5. The total opened at 49 and within hours had dropped to 47, where it has held the remainder of the week.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 17.
* Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9.5, 44.5)

Tom Brady missed the earlier matchup against the Dolphins while serving a four-game suspension, but he is putting up some of the most impressive numbers of his career with 25 touchdowns against two interceptions. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led New England to three touchdowns drives before he was injured in the first meeting and running back LeGarrette Blount (NFL-leading 17 rushing touchdowns) finished Miami off with 29 carries for 123 yards and a score. Tight end Martellus Bennett also came up big in Week 2 with five receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots are allowing a league-low 15.7 points after yielding a field goal in each of the last two games.

Miami will be forced to go with a backup quarterback with Matt Moore set to make his third consecutive start in place of Ryan Tannehill (knee). Moore has six touchdown passes against two interceptions in road wins at the New York Jets and Buffalo to clinch a playoff spot, leading the offense to 34 points in each of the victories. Running back Jay Ajayi emerged from a four-game funk with his third 200-yard game of the season, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors by rushing for 206 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries last week. The Dolphins surrendered 589 total yards to the Bills last week and will be without two starters in cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened this AFC East showdown as 7.5-point home pups and that number wasn’t high enough being bet up to 10. The total opened at 44.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
* Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 43)

Running back Adrian Peterson, who returned from a three-month absence with six carries against Indianapolis in Week 15, has not practiced since and could sit out his second straight game due to groin and knee injuries. Despite the offense's struggles, quarterback Sam Bradford owns the highest completion percentage (71.3) in history and has received high marks across the board from Zimmer. “Maybe this is the best year he’s ever had,” Zimmer said. “If you put all those together and look at the things he’s had to deal with, I think he’s been amazing.” Minnesota's defense has unraveled in the past two weeks, surrendering 72 points in losses to Indianapolis and Green Bay.

Injuries to Jay Cutler and backup Jay Hoyer have forced Chicago to go forward with third-string quarterback Matt Barkley, who has labored over the past two games with twice as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (4). On Wednesday, Barkley said there was a "lot to learn" from the five-interception debacle in last week's 41-21 loss to the Washington Redskins. “I think the big picture was just if it don’t feel right, it’s not right. Don’t try to force things or try to make a big play out of nothing," Barkley said. "When the timing is off, just don’t make a bad play worse." Rookie Jordan Howard rushed for a season-high 153 yards in the first meetings versus the Vikings.

LINE HISTORY: The struggling Vikings opened the week as 6.5-home chalk, but bettors early in the week were backing Chicago and the line was bet down to 4.5. Since, the line has rebounded and currently sits at 6. The total opened at a low 41 and has been bet up to 43.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Vikings are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3.5, 42.5)

The decision to bench Taylor, who threw for 3,023 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, appears to be a financial one and not the call of interim coach Doug Whaley. Manuel has played sparingly since entering the league in 2013, throwing just six passes this season, and he may be without running back LeSean McCoy (1,257 yards rushing, 14 total touchdowns), who missed practice during the week due to an illness. Top wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who battled through for a foot injury to post season highs of seven catches for 154 yards last week, also is listed as questionable.

Fitzpatrick went 24-for-34 for 374 yards and a touchdown as the Jets knocked off the Bills 37-31 in the second game of the season to gain a bit of revenge for their loss to Buffalo the previous season that knocked New York out of the playoff picture. Since then, Fitzpatrick has become more a punch line, completing 55.8 percent of his passes with 17 interceptions on the season. And, many of New York's top skill position players are all questionable -- running backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are battling knee injuries and wideout Brandon Marshall has a slew of injuries that may sideline him for the finale.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers don’t really care who the coach of the Bills is, opening them as 6-point road favorites in this AFC matchup. Since then, the line has seen some Jets action bringing it down to 3.5. The total opened at 45 and bettors like the Under, moving the number down to 42.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Bills last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Jets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 42.5)

Dez Bryant stepped up with a pair of receiving touchdowns and even threw a left-handed scoring strike to veteran tight end Jason Witten in last week's mauling of the Lions. The duo also shined bright in the first meeting with Philadelphia, as Bryant had four receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown and Witten reeled in a 5-yard scoring catch in overtime as Dallas posted a 29-23 victory on Oct. 30. Witten, who resides 26 yards shy of Michael Irvin's franchise record (11,904), ranks second all-time among tight ends in receptions (1,088) and receiving yards.

Wentz's favorite target, Jordan Matthews, may not be able to suit up as he missed his second consecutive day of practice on Thursday due to an ankle injury. Matthews reeled in a career-high 11 receptions for just 65 yards and a touchdown against Dallas in October and has 26 catches for 278 yards and three scores in his last three encounters with the Cowboys. Matthews was limited to two catches for 12 yards but fellow wideout Nelson Agholor had a 40-yard touchdown grab in a 24-19 victory over the New York Giants last week to mark the first time he's reached the end zone since the season opener.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened the week as 3.5-home favorites as the Cowboys are expected to rest starters for the playoffs. Since then, bettors have bet that line up to 4.5. The total opened at 43 and hasn’t moved off that number.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
* Under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 road games.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 vs. NFC East.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 42.5)

Cleveland is evaluating the players on its roster for next season and will take a long look at quarterback Robert Griffin III, who is out of the concussion protocol and expected to start on Sunday. Griffin is 58-of-107 for 654 yards and no touchdowns in an injury-plagued first season with the Browns but was sharp against the Chargers before getting knocked out of the game. "We have seen him get better from the first opportunity to the second to the third," coach Hue Jackson told reporters. "Hopefully, he can keep making jumps as you go, because that says a lot to me."

Pittsburgh is locked into the No. 3 spot in the AFC and a first-round date with Miami, and Roethlisberger already has his focus on that contest. "I’ll do whatever is needed," he told reporters of his plans this week. "Help (backup quarterback Landry Jones) prepare, do the Miami stuff or whoever, start preparing for the playoff game when I can." The Steelers' winning streak began at Cleveland in Week 11, when Bell piled up 201 total yards and a rushing touchdown in a 24-9 triumph.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North showdown as 10-point home favorites and that number was way to high for bettors as the line has been dropping all week settling at 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been inching down throughout the week down to 43.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Browns last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games in Week 17.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 46)

Cam Newton missed the team's first matchup of the season with a concussion, leaving Derek Anderson under center. Newton is once again on the injury report with a shoulder issue but is expected to play, as is tight end Greg Olsen (elbow), who also missed practice time during the week. The Panthers, however, won't have All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly, who will sit out his sixth straight game after suffering a concussion on Nov. 17, and wide receiver Devin Funchess, who was placed on injured reserve.

Martin, who was a Pro Bowl selection last season, left the team to enter a drug treatment program and is not the only back who will miss Sunday's game. Charles Sims was placed on the injured reserve with a pectoral injury, leaving Jacquizz Rodgers, who leads the team with 485 yards on 112 carries with two touchdowns, as the lead back. Tight end Cameron Brate (57 receptions, 661 yards, 8 touchdowns), in the midst of a breakout season, also is out with a back injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Buccaneers opened the week as 4-point home favorites over their NFC South division rival Panthers and that number was bet up as high as 6, before fading back to 4. The total opened at 47.5 and has been driven down to even 46.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.


Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40.5)

Rookie Will Fuller reeled in seven receptions for 81 yards with a touchdown and exploded for a 67-yard punt return for a score in a 27-20 win over the Titans on Oct. 2. Fellow wideout DeAndre Hopkins was limited to his worst showing of the season - one catch for four yards - and has been held to three receptions or fewer in three of his last four outings. Lamar Miller (1,073 yards) rolled up 108 yards from scrimmage (82 rushing, 26 receiving) in the first meeting, but could give away to Alfred Blue after missing his second straight practice with an ankle injury.

After mustering just five victories combined in its last two seasons, Tennessee sees the beauty of recording its first winning season since 2011 should it avoid a loss on Sunday. "You can carry that momentum for the following season," said outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, who has a team-leading 10.5 sacks this season and recorded at least one in two of his last three encounters with Houston. "You've got to finish strong, you've got to finish on a high note so you can kind of just pick up where you left off." DeMarco Murray would love to do precisely that, as the 28-year-old has rushed for an NFL third-best 1,266 yards while two of his nine touchdowns came in the first meeting with Houston.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point home faves and have been bet up to 3.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn’t moved off that number.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South.
* Titans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.


Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (PK, 41.5)

The finale marks what likely will be the final career game for wide receiver Steve Smith Sr., who says he is "89 percent sure" he will retire. "There will be mourning," Smith told reporters. "There will be a lot of emotions. Also, there are a lot of other things I can grasp on that you can't take away. That I can hold on to. Whether you want to or not, you're going to move on. That's part of life." The 37-year-old is one of 11 players in NFL history with at least 1,000 receptions and 14,000 yards, and he leads Baltimore's receivers with five touchdown catches this season.

Cincinnati could be saying goodbye to Andrew Whitworth, a 35-year-old tackle who is a free agent after the season. However, the Bengals don't plan to say farewell to coach Marvin Lewis, who took the team to the playoffs each of the previous five seasons and shot down retirement rumors this week. "I'll be back in 2017," Lewis told SiriusXM radio after causing a stir while refusing to answer that question during his weekly press conference.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this game as 2.5-point home favorites, but bettors are backing the Ravens here moving the line to a pick’em. The total opened at 41 and has been bet up to 41.5.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North.
* Bengals are 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games overall.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 56.5)

New Orleans remains one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, as Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (4,858) and has thrown for 35 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. The offense has torched the last two opponents, with much of the damage being done by Brees and top target Brandin Cooks, who has 12 receptions for 284 yards and two touchdowns in the that span. The Saints’ downfall, as usual, has been a porous defense that has done a decent job against the run but been exposed in the secondary.

Matt Ryan has put up MVP-like numbers of his own, passing for 4,613 yards with 34 touchdowns and just seven interceptions to post a league-best quarterback rating. Ryan is surrounded by weapons, with star receiver Julio Jones (76 receptions, 1,313 yards, 5 TDs) and a solid backfield duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman leading the way. Atlanta’s defense has given up its share of yardage but also has come up with big plays when needed, including a league-high 14 1/2 sacks from linebacker Vic Beasley.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons still in the hunt for a first round bye opened the week as 6.5-point favorites and that number has grown to 7.5. The total opened at 55.5 and has been inching up all week currently is sitting at 56.5.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Falcons are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Falcons last 16 games overall.
* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.


New York Giants at Washington (-7.5, 45)

Pro Bowl cornerback Janoris Jenkins (back) missed his first game of the season in a 24-19 loss to Philadelphia and could be a spectator again versus Cousins and Washington's high-powered offense. Jenkins has been limited in practice this week and New York could exercise caution with little on the line Sunday. "I ain't going to say yeah. I ain't going to say no," the 28-year-old Jenkins said on if he'll play versus the Redskins. "Just preparing on getting ready and take this week as a game week as if I'm starting. I don't know the call or whatever."

Tight end Jordan Reed participated in practice Thursday without any obvious discomfort with his injured left shoulder, giving coach Jay Gruden optimism and Cousins another weapon in the team's third-ranked offense (411.3 yards per game). "The big thing is making sure he has the confidence where he can extend his arm and do all the things necessary to separate from defenders," Gruden said. "He's on the right track." Wideouts DeSean Jackson and Jamison Crowder have been on the fast track, with the former amassing 327 receiving yards and a touchdown in the last three games while the latter has three scores in his past four at home.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and has moved as high as 8 and as low as 7, before returning to the number is started at. Oddsmakers opened the line at 44 and has since been bet up one point to 45.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Washington are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Washington last 9 home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Washington last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5, 43)

Seattle likely will have Thomas Rawls at its disposal in the finale, as the running back fully participated in practice on Wednesday and Thursday after leaving last week's loss to Arizona with a shoulder injury. Rawls rushed for a career-best 209 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with San Francisco this season. Safety Kam Chancellor also was a full participant on Thursday and figures to play against the 49ers after briefly going down with an ankle injury versus the Cardinals.

San Francisco still is in the running for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft, as it would receive the selection with a loss and an unlikely victory over Pittsburgh by the 1-14 Cleveland Browns. Defensive end DeForest Buckner has recorded three sacks over his last three games and is second among NFC rookies with six. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for career highs of 988 yards and six touchdowns, was placed on injured reserve after suffering a sprained MCL against the Rams last week while defensive lineman Zach Moore was claimed off waivers from Dallas.

LINE HISTORY: The struggling 49ers opened this game as 9.5-point home dogs and that line has been bet up to 10. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 9-1 in 49ers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Seahawks are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)

With McGloin under center, Oakland likely will try to emulate its game plan from last month's victory over Broncos, when Latavius Murray rushed for 114 yards and three touchdowns to lead a ground game that churned out 218 yards. Murray managed only 40 yards on 15 carries in last week's win over the Colts and was replaced in the second half by rookie DeAndre Washington, who scampered for 99 yards and a pair of 22-yard touchdown runs on 12 carries. McGloin also has key weapons on the outside in wide receivers Amari Cooper (84 catches, 1,114 yards, 4 TDs) and Michael Crabtree (84, 957, 8 TDs). Defensive end Khalil Mack had two of his 11 sacks against Denver in November.

Siemian has struggled the past two weeks, getting the offense in the end zone only once, which is a reason why Kubiak is giving him the start before Lynch comes on in relief. "I want him to get the Kansas City taste out of his mouth. It was a tough outing," Kubiak said of Siemian's performance in last week's 33-10 loss to the Chiefs. "But also Paxton is going to play. I'm going to prepare them both." Lynch, the No. 26 overall pick out of Memphis, has made three appearances (two starts) this season, completing 49 of 83 for 487 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one interception. Denver will be without linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened this game as 3.5-point road pups and there has been action on both sides since. The line moved down to a pick’em, but moved back to the current number on +1.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West.
* Favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.


Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, 40.5)

Johnson has been one of the few bright spots in a dark year for Arizona, setting an NFL record by gaining 100 or more yards from scrimmage in 15 straight games to start a campaign while joining Barry Sanders as the only players in league history to hit the mark in 15 consecutive contests in a single season. The 25-year-old is the fourth player ever to register at least 1,200 yards rushing (1,233) and 800 receiving (841) in the same season and has tied Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James for the most multi-touchdown performances over their first two NFL campaigns (11). Larry Fitzgerald, who enters the finale trailing Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown (106) by four receptions for the league lead, could be playing in his last game as he is contemplating retirement.

Offense has been the major problem for Los Angeles in 2016, as it is last in the league in total offense (272 yards per game), 31st in rushing (72.1) and 30th in passing (192). With poor offense comes minimal scoring, as evidenced by the team's last-place ranking in total points (218) and points per game (14.5), and it has been held to 10 or fewer in eight of its 15 contests. One of the only positives for the Rams this season has been Johnny Hekker, who enters the finale with an NFL single-season record of 50 punts inside the 20-yard line.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened this NFC West showdown as touchdown home pups, but was quickly bet down to 6 before rebounding to 6.5. The total opened at 40.5 and briefly rose to an even 41 than faded back to the opening 40.5.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 vs. NFC West.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+4.5, 44.5)

Kansas City’s offense has appeared pedestrian at times, but quarterback Alex Smith is surrounded with enough weapons to do some damage. Spencer Ware needs 79 rushing yards to become the 10th different player in franchise history to top 1,000 in a season, tight end Travis Kelce is having a huge campaign and dynamic rookie Tyreek Hill is a threat to score every time he touches the ball while continuing to take on a larger role. The defense has had its share of trouble stopping the run, but a league-best 31 takeaways and a relentless pass rush have helped keep points off the board.

San Diego’s passing game remains dangerous despite the fact Rivers has lost many of his top targets to injuries throughout the season. The ground game has not been as effective, but Melvin Gordon needs just three yards on the ground to become the fourth different player in team history with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season. A whopping 33 turnovers often have put the defense in bad situations, but the unit has come up with plenty of big plays, as cornerback Casey Hayward leads the league with seven interceptions and defensive end Joey Bosa’s 9 1/2 sacks are the most among NFL rookies.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened this AFC West battle as 4-point road favorites and was bet up as high as 6 early in the week, before fading back to 4. The total opened at 45 and has been bet down half-point to 44.5.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Chiefs last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Chargers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David

Week 16 Recap

The scoreboard operators put in some work during the holiday weekend as 25 of 32 teams put up 20-plus points and the New York Jets were the only team not to score a touchdown. That offensive effort helped the ‘over’ post an eye-opening 12-3-1 record in Week 15 and that was the best result for the high side this season. Through 16 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 124-111-2 this season.

Handicapping Week 17

The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.

Week 17 Total Results (2011-2015)
Year Over/Under
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7

I dug up the numbers from the last five seasons and looking above, you can see that the ‘under’ has produced better overall numbers in Week 17 and that includes an 11-5 mark last season.

Based on playoff implications, there are nine meaningless matchups in Week 17 and I’m including the Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup because the Buccaneers can only earn a spot if they win, the Redskins and Giants end in a tie and a quartet of other teams need to win too.

Houston at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: Five of the last six played in New York have gone to the high side, with the Jets averaging 30.6 PPG at home during this span.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Ravens have seen the ‘over’ connect in their last four but the Cincy defense (16.6 PPG) has helped the team close with a 6-1 ‘under’ run over its last seven.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: High total (47) and Colts have put up some serious offensive numbers (30.7 PPG) off a loss this season but the last five played in Indy between the pair have all gone ‘under.’

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field before the first five went ‘under.’

Chicago at Minnesota: The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 15-9 at home since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Panthers and Bucs have posted identical total records (7-7-1) this season. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three played at Raymond James Stadium between the pair, with Carolina averaging 29.3 points per game.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five games Pittsburgh lined up without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in the second-half.

Arizona at Los Angeles: The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 on the road this season.

Meaningful Matchups

Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action on Sunday and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17.

New England at Miami: This game kicks at 1:00 p.m. ET and something has to give here with New England 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road and Miami 6-1 to the ‘over’ at home. As I wrote about last week, the Dolphins offense is all about big plays but they’ll be facing the top scoring defense in New England, who is allowing 15.7 PPG. The first meeting between the pair at Foxboro went ‘over’ but three of the last four encounters in South Florida have stayed ‘under’ the number.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is another ‘over’ vs. ‘under’ matchup with Washington leaning to the high side (12-3) while the Giants have been the best ‘under’ (11-4) wager in the league. Washington beat New York 29-27 on the road in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (47) connected but the number for the rematch is 45. Knowing Washington needs a win to stay alive for a playoff spot, the tempo of the game will be determined by the score. Despite being in the playoffs, the Giants announced that their regulars are going to start.

Green Bay at Detroit: (See Below)

New Orleans at Atlanta: This total (56 ½) is the highest number we’ve seen all season and even though it’s inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under.’ Atlanta owns the best ‘over’ record (12-2-1) and that includes a 7-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. New Orleans enters this game off 48 and 31-point performances from its offense nd the Falcons defense (24.9 PPG) doesn’t have the horses to slow them down. This series was on a good ‘under’ run (5-1-1) but the pair squashed that trend in late September when Atlanta defeated New Orleans 45-32 in a Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football. I expect both teams to get at least five scores and barring a ton of field goals, the high side will be threatened.

Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the pair and the one ‘over’ occurred this season when the Chiefs rallied past the Chargers for a 33-27 overtime victory in Week 1. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime before collapsing in the second-half, which burnt ‘under’ bettors. The Chiefs remain a solid ‘under’ bet (10-5) behind their defense (18.9 PPG) and that unit will be facing a San Diego offense that’s run out of gas the last three weeks (16.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘under’ tickets.

Seattle at San Francisco: This total opened as high as 44 ½ and is as low as 42 as of Saturday afternoon. The Seahawks defense was embarrassed at home last week (34-31) against the Cardinals and most would expect a big rebound. Seattle blasted San Francisco 37-18 in Week 3 at home and the 49ers defense is ranked last in total defense (408 yards per game) and scoring (30.3 PPG). Before you back Seattle and the ‘over’ on Sunday make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings between the pair in San Francisco and the average combined score is just 25 PPPG.

Oakland at Denver: There will be plenty of backup quarterbacks on the field for this one as Oakland starts Matt McGloin for the injured Derek Carr. He hasn’t started a game since 2003 but in six career appearances, he’s helped his club average 23.6 PPG. Denver announced that it’s going with two quarterbacks in the finale and that’s never a good thing, especially for an offense averaging 10.8 PPG over its last four games.

Under the Lights

Even though bookmakers haven’t been pleased with this year’s NFL betting results as a whole, I’m guessing they’re relieved that the ‘under’ went 27-23-1 in the primetime games. As we head into Week 17’s matchup, the guys behind the betting counter will be cheering for another ticket to the low side.

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 46 ½ between the Packers and Lions last Sunday and that number has jumped up to 49 ½ six days later.

The Green Bay-Over combination is receiving an enormous amount of support and the books are hoping the Lions can pull off the upset in an ugly game. The Packers have covered and gone ‘over’ in five of their first 15 games this season and that includes their 34-27 win over Detroit on Sept. 25 as 6 ½-point home favorites.

The Packers have gone 5-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season and their defense (28.9 PPG) has helped the cause. Make a note that Green Bay has played in five night games this season and it’s seen the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Prior to last Monday’s 42-21 blowout loss at Dallas, the Lions had seen the ‘under’ cash in eight straight games and the defense held seven of those opponents under 20 points. Detroit’s secondary could be missing two starters including corner back Darius Slay (hamstring).

The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-23 win by Green Bay over Detroit at Ford Field that ended with the infamous Hail Mary touchdown from the Pack.

For bettors that lean on historical angles, listed below are the Week 17 SNF matchups dating back to 2008.

2015 - Minnesota 20 at Green Bay 13 (Under 44)
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight SNF finales and six of the last eight games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.

Only two road teams managed to win this game during this span. The Vikings stopped the Packers last season and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys in 2013.

Coincidentally, both Minnesota and Philadelphia earned home playoff games with those wins and they both lost in the postseason by a combined three points to Seattle (10-9) and New Orleans (26-24) respectively.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a solid profit ($190) last week and even though the bankroll sits slightly in the red ($300) through 16 weeks, I’m feeling good headed into the finale. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!

Best Over: Oakland-Denver 40 ½

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 43

Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 47 New Orleans-Atlanta
Over 31 ½ Oakland-Denver
Over 35 ½ New England-Miami

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 17

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 17

1) Green Bay -3.5 (538)
2) Miami +9.5 (417)
3) Detroit +3.5 (405)
4) Baltimore +2 (389)
5) Denver -1 (374)

SuperContest Week 17 Matchups & Odds
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Houston (+3.5) 244 Tennessee (-3.5) 155
Buffalo (-3.5) 196 N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 178
Baltimore (+2) 389 Cincinnati (-2) 147
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 318 Washington (-7.5) 226
Green Bay (-3.5) 538 Detroit (+3.5) 405
Jacksonville (+4.5) 184 Indianapolis (-4.5) 318
Dallas (+4) 168 Philadelphia (-4) 240
Chicago (+5) 180 Minnesota (-5) 189
Carolina (+6) 350 Tampa Bay (-6) 134
Cleveland (+6) 140 Pittsburgh (-6) 251
New Orleans (+6.5) 313 Atlanta (-6.5) 318
New England (-9.5) 172 Miami (+9.5) 417
Arizona (-6) 244 Los Angeles (+6) 101
Kansas City (-6) 320 San Diego (+6) 271
Seattle (-9.5) 272 San Francisco (+9.5) 102
Oakland (+1) 221 Denver (-1) 374



Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%
15 2-2-1 33-39-3 46%
16 4-1 37-40-3 48%